Confluent (NASDAQ: CFLT) Surges 35% on Stellar Quarterly ReportShares of Confluent (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:CFLT ) skyrocketed on Thursday, igniting a fervor among investors as the company's quarterly financial report surpassed even the loftiest expectations. With a remarkable surge of 35.4%, the stock exemplified the resilience and potential of Confluent in the data streaming and cloud market.
Unveiling a Financial Triumph:
Confluent's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:CFLT ) fourth-quarter performance shattered forecasts, with revenue surging to $213 million, marking a remarkable 26% year-over-year increase. Fueling this impressive growth was a 31% climb in subscription revenue, propelling adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to an impressive $0.09. Analysts, taken aback by the company's stellar performance, had anticipated revenue of $205.3 million and an adjusted EPS of $0.05, making Confluent's triumph all the more exhilarating.
Confluent Cloud Soars to New Heights:
Amidst its financial triumph, Confluent (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:CFLT ) achieved a significant milestone with its first-ever quarter of $100 million in Confluent Cloud revenue, signaling a remarkable 46% year-over-year increase. Moreover, the company boasted a dollar-based net retention rate of 125%, a testament to its ability to retain and expand its existing customer base. This strategic focus on cloud services aligns with Confluent's vision of becoming a consumption-oriented business, poised to capitalize on the burgeoning $60 billion data streaming platform market.
Navigating the Path Forward:
While the third quarter had left investors apprehensive about Confluent's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:CFLT ) transition strategy, the fourth-quarter results served as a resounding affirmation of its trajectory. CEO Jay Kreps emphasized the company's commitment to driving innovation in the data-in-motion market, highlighting Confluent's pivotal role in removing barriers and propelling technological advancements forward. With a clear roadmap ahead, Confluent is poised to capitalize on the immense opportunities within the rapidly evolving data landscape.
A Bullish Outlook:
Looking ahead, Confluent's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:CFLT ) guidance for the first quarter and full year further solidifies its position as a frontrunner in the industry. With management forecasting revenue of $211.5 million for the first quarter and a full-year projection of $950 million, Confluent is poised to surpass Wall Street's expectations and cement its status as a market leader. As CEO Jay Kreps aptly stated, the data-in-motion market remains ripe for disruption, and Confluent stands at the forefront of this transformative journey.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, Confluent's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:CFLT ) remarkable surge following its quarterly report underscores the company's unwavering commitment to innovation and excellence. With stellar financial results, groundbreaking achievements in Confluent Cloud, and a bullish outlook for the future, Confluent is primed for continued success in the dynamic world of data streaming and cloud technology. As investors celebrate this momentous occasion, the stage is set for Confluent to carve out a formidable presence in the data landscape, driving value for customers and shareholders alike.
CFLT
CFLT Confluent Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CFLT Confluent prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 45usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $4.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
CFLT Uptrend Rectangle pattern with BreakoutNASDAQ:CFLT Confluent, Inc. operates a data streaming platform in the United States and internationally.
Uptrend rectangle pattern, above AVWAP from Highest point and ipo day. Breakout (pivot point) ~34 with Massive 6 weeks accumaltion.
Breakout (pivot point): ~34
Target ~ 63
The Week Ahead: ARKK, KRE, GDXJ; CFLT, COIN, DASH EarningsWith broad market implied volatility having crushed out mightily over the past couple of weeks, I'm left scrounging around in the exchange-traded fund and/or (ugh) single name space for premium. There aren't a lot of underlyings with ideal IVR/IV metrics to play, but there are a few things that still have decent IV in them, even if it isn't toward the top of its 52-week range.
There isn't anything in the exchange-traded fund space as of Friday close with an IVR >50%, but there are a few with 30-day IV >35% (which is the combination of metrics I like to see). Here there are, ranked by 30-day with stuff <$20/share weekend weeded out:
ARKK 41
KRE 41
KWEB 39
GDXJ 37
USO 36
XOP 35
Pictured here is a fairly plain Jane delta neutral short strangle in ARKK in the June expiry with the short legs camped out around the 16 delta, paying 1.00 at the mid price with break evens at 30 and 43.
The KRE June 16th 37/48 short strangle (16 delta) is paying around 1.25.
The KWEB June 16th 28 short straddle is paying around 1.95. (Going 16 delta short strangle didn't end up paying much; the 26/30.5 was paying .55).
The GDXJ June 16th 35/46 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 1.04 at the mid.
The USO June 16th 60.76 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 1.65 at the mid.
The XOP June 16th 112/143 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 3.04 at the mid.
Broad Market
Ugh. Why even go here ... . Broad market exchange-traded funds, ranked by 30-day IV:
IWM 21.3%
QQQ 20.6%
EFA 16.2%
SPY 16.1%
DIA 14.3%
Bond Funds
My only observation here is to note that TLT premium is better than SPY's (as is EMB's).
EMB 20.9%
TLT 17.0%
HYG 9.5%
AGG 7.4%
And, of course, there are earnings ... . I've screened and ranked these by >50% 30-day IV, as well as for options liquidity and thrown out underlyings that are trading at <$20/share:
COIN 111.2 (Thursday after market close)
W 107
RUN 92.9
CFLT 80.9 (Wednesday after market close)
PPL 73.4 (Thursday before market open)
FOUR 72.0
DASH 70.2 (Thursday after market close)
The drawbacks to W, RUN, and FOUR involve strike to strike granularity, which is why I haven't bothered to look up their announcement days and times. W and RUN have 1 1/2 wides; FOUR, has 5-wides. Not having 1-wides can not only make setting up delta neutral a pain; it can making rolling out a pain if you have to do that to manage the trade, so I generally avoid underlyings with weak strike granularity for earnings plays that are generally just made to take advantage of the ensuing volatility contraction. I would consequently lean toward plays in COIN, CFLT, PPL, and DASH for volatility contraction plays, looking to get into
CFLT, Wednesday before market close (since it announces Wednesday after market close).
PPL, Wednesday before market close (since it announces Thursday before market open).
COIN, Thursday, before market close.
DASH, Thursday, before market close.
Preliminary Setups:
CFLT May 19th 22.5 Short Straddle, 3.60 credit, 18.90/26.10 break evens
PPL: May 19th 29 Short Straddle, 1.03 credit. (Well, that's ... weak sauce. It's possible that the platform is misreporting 30-day, so this will have to be checked during the NY session).
COIN: May 19th 45/67 Short Strangle, 3.29 credit. (A smidge pesky, since I'd want to set up my put side tent somewhere between the 45 and the 40 strike, where there aren't any strikes at the moment.)
DASH: May 19th 52/73 Short Strangle, 1.95 credit.
8/3/22 CFLTConfluent, Inc. ( NASDAQ:CFLT )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $8.079B
Current Price: $29.02
Breakout Price: $31.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $27.65-$19.45
Price Target: $33.50-$36.30 (1st), $45.10-$49.20 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 26-29d, 73-76d
Contract of Interest: $CFLT 8/19/22 30c, $CFLT 10/21/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.55/contract, $2.60/contract