Richemont just broke out of the Falling Wedge target R327Falling Wedge (Flag pole) has formed over the last few months.
We then had a breakout above the Wedge alone with a breakout above the downtrend (Action line)
We believe the nature of the analysis is High probability where the price is above 20 and 200MA.
The target is at R327.51
CFR
#CFR Richemont Roars Back: Ready to 'Rumble' Up the Charts!Richemont (JSE:CFR) Breaking the significant down trending channel which has held price lower since July in a very controlled 'Fashion' (excuse the pun). The level we bounced from is the 50% fib retracement from the May 22 lows and May 23 highs. RSI and MACD has been building divergence for weeks where the indicators made higher lows which was not confirmed by price..
Putting this all together, I think we have a good trading opportunity to get long CFR here with a stop loss below recent lows at R2158, with targets at approx. R2500 R2600 and R2700 (200day ma).
RICHEMONT (CFR)Richemont's trading chart signals a potential entry into Impulsive Wave 5, as observed on the weekly time frame.
- Monitor the emergence of support above the previous high of Impulsive Wave (1) resistance.
- This support could drive a price movement towards the 400 level.
NOTE: RICHEMONT - These ultra-luxe brands appeal to the top 0.01% of earners, who remain insulated from economic downturns.
They fall into the category of Veblen Goods, witnessing increased demand as prices climb. This trend parallels the automotive industry, exemplified by Ferrari.
Reference: Ghostmail
Richemont breakaway gap for the downsideInverse C&H has formed on Richemont.
Before the handle formed, it made a Breakaway gap.
This is where the price stopped its current uptrend, broke below where there is liquidity that didn't fill, and then continued down.
Now gaps close 70% of the time, so we could get a spike up before the downside. But that would be for a conservative trader.
Other indicators show downside to come.
7=21
Price>200
RSI <50
Target R2,299
ABOUT THE COMPANY:
Origins:
Richemont was created in 1988 by South African businessman Johann Rupert. Its creation represented the spin-off of international assets owned by Rembrandt Group Limited of South Africa.
Headquarters:
The company's global headquarters is located in Bellevue, Switzerland.
Luxury Brands Portfolio:
Richemont owns several of the world's leading luxury goods companies, with particular strengths in jewelry, luxury watches, and premium accessories.
Their portfolio includes brands such as Cartier, Dunhill, Montblanc, and Van Cleef & Arpels.
Watch Expertise:
The company is known for its Swiss watchmaking brands like Jaeger-LeCoultre, Piaget, IWC, Baume et Mercier, Vacheron Constantin, Officine Panerai, and Roger Dubuis.
Global Reach:
Richemont operates in over 35 countries globally and sells its products in over 100 countries.
Richemont shooting up since share distribution to R4,142 Rising Wedge has formed on Daily.
Normally you expect the price to break down as it's generally a bearish pattern.
However, as the trend is up, the wedge is up and the gap is up - signals strong upside.
The price has broken up, and we could get a bit of downside before the next move up.
7>21>200
RSI>70
Target R4,142
FUNDAMENTALS:
It seems like since the share distribution 1:10, investors are seeing the share as a valuable one to hold in long term portfolios, which is why they're buying the share up.
R3,400 is more attractive than a R340.00 share clearly.
We'll have to see how this one plays out
FUNDAMENTALS-Share Consolidation (Reverse Stock Split) RichemontOn 19 April 2023, Richemont went through a Share Consolidation (Reverse Stock Split).
That's why we saw the price move from R300 up to R3,027 (909%).
But before you get excited with whether you could have profited big time we need to remember what a Reverse Stock Split is...
What is a Reverse Split (Share consolidation)?
• The opposite of a stock split where
• When the company makes a corporate action to
• Reduce the number of its outstanding shares to its shareholders
• Which simultaneously increases the share price
• The shareholder will still have the same value proportional.
What happens to the par value of the share price?
A decrease in the number of shares means that the share price will go up!
Why would a company do a reverse spit?
The company might be under the impression that shareholders think the share price is too low.
So, they’ll cut the number of shares and increase the shareholder which will give the impression of the share price higher and more valuable.
EXAMPLE: With Richemont – 19 April 2023
SPECIFICS:
Share consolidation: Reverse Stock Split 10:1.
BEFORE: The share price was R300.00
AFTER: The share price is R3,027
No. SHARES OWNED: 100
AFTER CONSOLIDATION:
For every 10 shares you owned before, you now own 1 share.
So your 100 shares would be consolidated into 10 shares.
OVERALL VALUE:
BEFORE: 100 shares X R300 = R30,000
AFTER: 10 shares X R3,027 = R30,270
In this case, the value of the investment has indeed increased after the share consolidation but only marginally.
What just happened to Richemont? 911%!REMINDER: Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) is a Swiss luxury goods company that has a subsidiary in South Africa.
The subsidiary's depositary receipts and warrant receipts were previously listed and traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
However, starting from April 19th, 2023, these financial instruments will be suspended from trading on the JSE and relevant A shares and relevant A warrants will instead be listed on the exchange.
Hold your horses!
The 912% increase in Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) share price likely resulted from the conversion of financial instruments related to the company's South African subsidiary.
The company announced a deadline for the conversion of depositary receipts and warrant receipts, which resulted in the suspension of trading on the Johannesburg stock exchange and the listing of relevant shares and warrants on the exchange.
This process likely had a positive impact on the company's share price and resulted in the significant increase.
Is $cfr $jsecfr about to rollover?$cfr is trading above its long term channel it has respected since 2007. Last time it flew above this channel its wings melted. The RSI and Moneyflow indicators show that strength is leaking out of this share. Investors are securing profits. This is a quality share with a strong outlook but may return to former support around CHF 127 to consolidate. Not a good long term entry currently. On the JSE the move could be influenced by the USDZAR strength or weakness. If the dollar rolls over this share will roll over too.
Richemont hit our first profit target at R205.65 Profit target 1 Reached for Richemont at R205.65
There is still a strong Bullish bias, but we'll have to wait for the next pattern to form.
The JSE Santa Claus Rally is premature but we are loving every second of it.
Let's hope it continues after a trying couple of months.
JSE:CFR Richmont Remaining Very StrongAfter the initial markup - see posts below - we have seen a very shallow pullback. The pullback showed a lot of effort (high volume) without response indicating that all available supply is being bought. Yesterday there was a significant range bar and the markup is now set to continue.
JSE:CFR Richemont Markup Set to ContinueThis month, I looked at Richemont as an investment stock to follow during the mark-up on a weekly chart - see post below. At the time I felt a pullback to R120 was possible but looking at price action last week it looks like the stock could already be ready to mark up further. In the smaller trading range on the daily timeframe, we have seen a spike in buying with volume below R146. A clean break of R148 could quickly push us higher.
JSE:CFR Richemont Breaking Up from Long Accumulation RangeRichemont has been in an accumulation range since 2014. After some preliminary supply (PSY) and a buying climax (BC) price moved sideways with someone accumulating stock between R100 and R105. After a spring down to R80 in March 2020 price met with high volume buying and has pushed higher on slightly lower volume indicating that the buyers are holding the stock and not selling reducing supply. We are now testing R150. It is possible that we may see a pullback to the breakout range at R120 but the Wyckoff markup phase has started. Looking at the length of the accumulation range (2014 to 2021) there is significant upside potential. Definitely a stock to campaign on its way up.
CFR - Backtest of doom?Looking at the Richemont, we may derive the following from the weekly chart:
1. CFR is at a notable resistance level where price has slowly started to reject the previous trend line. (The backtest)
2. We are seeing a correction pattern in play.
3. I am favouring a move to downside in the near future.
4. If the backtest holds, bears will bring the price down.
5. As always - maintain your risk management.
Let's see what happens.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
Richemont Has More Downside to Come After Brief ReliefRichemont is one of the world’s leading luxury goods groups. The Group’s luxury goods interests encompass some of the most prestigious names in the industry, including Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Piaget, Vacheron Constantin, Jaeger-LeCoultre, IWC, and Montblanc.
The history of growth in group sales was driven by a number of factors including geographic spread, the mix of sales by product type and by distribution channel. Sales growth has also been derived from the acquisition of new businesses which combine unique design with traditional skills.
Operating expenses increased by 14% for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed company during the year amid adverse exchange rate effects, this had an obvious effect on Richemont’ s share price, compared to the 13% increase in purchases through Richemont’ s own boutiques. Shares recently fell 6.4 percent after it said sales growth slowed and management struck a cautious note. The sales numbers were hurt by moves to combat the grey market and efforts by the Chinese government to discourage consumers from spending overseas.
For the financial year ended 31 March 2018, Richemont reported sales of EUR 10 979 million, operating profit of EUR 1 844 million and profit for the year of EUR 1 221 million.
Let's look at the technicals.
Weekly: I am looking for a price move back down to the previous low and a bit beyond before looking to trade the reversal. The low could reach as far as 70 and perhaps even 65.
From that point I will be looking for signs of a reversal.
Daily: I am expecting a rally at some point soon. This will form a correction for further downside. I will look to trade the next wave to the downside when I see confirmation.