CGC Long term Play - $38 PTLooking at picking up a few shares in the $38-$37, could keep moving lower to $34 but ready for the discounts as long term this should be a real contender.
CGC
TLRY Bull Follow through from parabolic wedge bull flag So far this week is a bull follow through bar. The bull breakout gap is still open below. The bulls will likely get two legs sideways to up even if only a small rally and test of the 78 tight trading range. If the bulls get strong consecutive bars over the coming weeks, it will increase the likelihood of a second leg up and test of the 160 high. If instead, the rally is week, the bears will look to sell around the 100 lower high and once again try for a test of the open.
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ACB 50/50 Probability - Breakout ModeACB NYSE is currently in the dead center of the bull flag trading range, and a converging triangle. This is where the directional probability is very close to 50/50. However the bulls have a slight advantage because it is a bull flag trading range, and there are bull gaps below. Prices are currently stalling at the failed bear reversal, where trapped bears may soon buy and contribute to a rally. However there is no valid but setup yet this week. The Bears want a test of the 5 low, and to fill the bull breakout gap. If this gap is filled, it will decrease the bull strength and prices will likely remain range bound for the next 20-40 bars. If instead the bulls keep the breakout gap open and form a higher low in the coming weeks, it will increase the probability of a test of the all time high and possibly bull trend continuation. But since prices are in a trading range, there will probably be some profit taking and short selling at a new all time high, unless the bull rally and breakout is exceptional.
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ACB 50/50 Bull Flag Trading Range - Breakout ModeACB is currently in the dead center of the bull flag trading range, and a converging triangle. This is where the directional probability is very close to 50/50. However the bulls have a slight advantage because it is a bull flag trading range, and there are bull gaps below. Prices are currently stalling at the failed bear reversal, where trapped bears may soon buy and contribute to a rally. However there is no valid but setup yet this week. The Bears want a test of the 7 low, and to fill the bull breakout gap. If this gap is filled, it will decrease the bull strength and prices will likely remain range bound for the next 20-40 bars. If instead the bulls keep the breakout gap open and form a higher low in the coming weeks, it will increase the probability of a test of the all time high and possibly bull trend continuation. But since prices are in a trading range, there will probably be some profit taking and short selling at a new all time high, unless the bull rally and breakout is exceptional.
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Short-term / Technical study of TLRYAs shown in chart. TLRY could benefit of a big rally if we can cross the $56.50 SMA(50) line with strong volume.
Technicals
RSI @62 with a stronger comeback from being oversold. (Check chart drawings)
* Always set your stop-limits to protect your position, as well as exit-profit targets to get your gains.
Happy trading!
dorfmanmaster
HEXO Bull Profit Taking HEXO reversed down from a nested parabolic wedge, larger wedge and large low 2. The follow through selling has been good. The bears will likely get a second leg down before taking profits and before the bulls will look to buy again. This market is still in a bull trend, but wedges often lead to two legs sideways to down, convert the market into a trading range (atleast temporarily), and sometimes reverse the market into a bear trend. The bulls will look to form a double bottom or higher low around the $5 low. They will need to keep the bull breakout gap open in order to defend the strength of the bull trend. Otherwise prices are more likely to convert into a bull flag trading range.
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ENPH Test of all time highThe buying pressure has been strong over the past few months on a test of the all time high. But this market is still in a large trading range, and the buying pressure is climactic. This is more likely a buy vacuum test of the high of the range than the start of a strong bull trend. Instead, there will probably be profit taking around or above the all time high which is just above. The bulls will need a strong breakout above and follow through before a trend is likely to begin. The bull gaps below around $10 will also likely need to be tested first.
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ZYNE strong bull breakout or trading range?Although $ZYNE is developing some bull strength, it is still in a large bear trend or trading range. The bulls reversed the market up on the monthly chart from a large high 2, and will probably get some form of a second leg up. However since the IPO this market has been sideways to down, decreasing the likelihood of a strong bull trend developing. The bulls need strong follow through above the 25 lower high and a strong breakout above the all time high in order to convert into a bull trend. Instead, there will likely be resistance around the $23 bear gap, bulls will take profits and bears will try to form a lower high and bear trend continuation.
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Credit Spread 50/52.5CGC credit spread 5x $120 premium, exp May 31
Looks like bearish divergence on RSI daily and weekly.
Trend is weakening as no new participants are really coming in after recent moves.
Journal entry and not advice.
TLRYA possible final bottom for $TLRY could be around $34 , last swing high of last summer.
The EW count now seems to be still incomplete and the weakness of the entire sector could bring the price in that sweet spot.
Keep in mind that Tilray is still one of the most overvalued stock in the cannabis sector with a market cap in the hundreds of times its revenues.
CGC - Short Target $40CGC had a good spring I am shorting it until $40 as bearish divergence printed on RSI and SPY is potentially going to move slightly lower.
IT may weigh upon canopy. I am in the trade as of $45.39. I may have jumped the gun as I could have waiting for a false breakout at $47. However the movement today was a little bit weak. $47.10 will be my stop.
This is a journal entry and not trading advice.
VFF weekly analysisThe high 2 micro double bottom bull flag has triggered from last week. The bears were unable to fill the $10 bull gap. Bulls likely to get second leg up from strong bull rally. They want a measured move up based on the spike or a leg 1 = leg 2 measured move. Prices will likely soon enter a bull channel. The bears need to generate strong selling pressure before they are likely to reverse the bull trend.
Lessons From an Experienced Trader #2Lesson 4 Know what you want in the market
Contrary to what most believe, successful traders do not actually trade constantly. Attempting to trade constantly leads to increased commission costs, random trading, and compound mistakes. In fact, successful traders spend most of their time doing absolutely nothing! How long does it take to enter an order? A click of the button. A few seconds. Maybe a few minutes at most to create bracket orders.
So what do Professional Traders do the rest of the time? They wait. They wait until the market offers what they want or are looking for. Then after entering they wait some more to see if they are right. They wait for the market to provide them with the information to either hold, or exit.
They allow themselves to Be, the trade to Be, the market to Be and do what it is going to do. They do not force actions or attempt to make the market do what they want. They wait until the action comes about on its own, until it is natural, a reflex.
If you do not know what it is in the market that you are looking for, you will fold under pressure and confusion. A Professional Trader knows exactly what he wants (not just to make money), he knows what he is looking for in the market, and is willingness to wait for it to arrive. By doing so, he is rewarded and paid by the market for his patience and willing to do nothing. Even if this means not trading for hours, days, or even weeks depending on the time frame.
It is far better to do nothing and avoid unnecessary losses, than to try and create tensions, forced actions, and lose money. You have to ask yourself "What is more important? The actual act of trading, or making money?"
Lesson 5 Define your edge
An edge is what you have defined as being what you want from the market in the previous lesson. This can be anything from a specific setup, to just plain context like a strong market. If you do not know what your edge is, you will struggle to perform consistently due to randomness.
Many new traders, especially those who follow price action, believe they should be able to trade the market no matter what the context is. If you think you are just going to walk in to the market, trade based on whatever the market is doing and make money; you are fooling yourself. Doing so will lead you to trade randomly, entering willy nilly at the market, and make many mistakes which will cost you your profitability.
Do you walk into Walmart or Aldi's without knowing what you want to buy until you get there? No, you have a list of items, or at least an idea of what you need before you go. Do you start a business because you woke up this morning and thought it would be nice to own a car wash? Hopefully not. You first identify an opportunity, and then create a business model after a lot of research. Then finally you open the business.
Of course everyone thinks or says "well so and so does this and that, and he seems to be making money." Sure, maybe he is, maybe not. If he is, he has defined his edge and is simply employing it. What someone else does has absolutely nothing to do with what you should be doing.
Once you have defined your edge, you must wait for it to arrive. If the market is not offering what you want or what your edge calls for, you do nothing until it is. If your edge is a trend trading method and the market is in a trading range, you do not trade until the market is trending.
If you have not clearly defined your edge, you should not trade. If you do not know what it is in the market you want and are looking for, you have no business in the market. Simple as that. If you chose to do so, you are putting yourself at unnecessary risk and trading randomly. Yes this sounds harsh, but it is the reality of the market. The market will not give you anything, especially if you don't even know what it is that you want!
CGC Short Canopy growth had a great spring and it seems to be fading toward a new move as bearish divergence prints on the daily RSI while the weekly also looks to be turning bearish.
I want to short 100 shares heading toward 40 which was last support and adding more if it breaks past it.
Previous resistance will be my stop which was $47.
This is a journal entry and not trading advice.
TLRY Weekly Analysis Parabolic Wedge Bull FlagTLRY has formed a second entry for a parabolic wedge bull flag and larger high 2, although a doji bar. If the bulls are unable to regain control soon - something is wrong with the bull trend premise. If the bulls do not return within the next few weeks, prices are more likely to be in a trading range and will likely test the tight trading range of the open around $25. If the bulls do generate strong follow through, they will likely get two legs up at minimum, and possibly bull trend resumption.
CGC just finished an Expanded Flat & a Zigzag [Elliott Wave]
CGC just finished an Expanded Flat & a Zigzag
From here I think we'll go up up up unless something changes.
LABS - Breakout of pennant, macd crossover upThe only green stock in weed sector, although its extraction company. MACD crossover up and I think it can run for another day or two. VFF beat earnings, so the whole mj sector could be green 1 or 2 days. May 14th has more earnings from mj companies.
TLRY Weekly AnalysisTLRY formed a parabolic wedge bull flag which triggered last week. So far it is failing and testing the bull breakout gap around $40. The bulls will likely try to form a second entry for the wedge bull flag within the next few weeks. If instead the sell off continues, prices will likely test the tight trading range of the open around $20 and from there enter a trading range.
CGC Weekly AnalysisCGC has formed a failed bull breakout and small final flag reversal (failed breakout of tight trading range). It also tested the middle of the tight trading range from the previous all time high which was a target. However this is the first reversal attempt since the January rally and the selling pressure wasnt that strong. The bears need strong follow through in order to convince the market the reversal is in. If the market ignores the sell setup and instead prices continue to rally, the bulls will likely get a new all time high, or a test of the previous high.
GWPH Weekly AnalysisThe Bulls are getting trend resumption after testing the EMA and filling the buy climax gap at $150. Prices will likely reach a new all time high soon. There are signs of profit taking around the new all time high (sideways for past 8 weeks). A reversal down soon could become a second entry for the larger wedge reversal. If there is another buy climax prices would form a parabolic wedge reversal and likely correct for two legs sideways to down.
TLRY weekly analysisTLRY formed a parabolic wedge bull flag last week which triggered this week and will potentially lead to bull trend resumption. The bears appear to be exiting on a test of the previous weeks bear close but the bulls will need follow through over the next few weeks. If prices continue to sell off the bears will likely test the bull breakout gap around $32 and $27.
CRON weekly analysisCRON
CRON reversed down from a parabolic wedge and tested below the 1/28 bull gap and the previous all time high. Bulls still have gaps open below and are currently trying to close the bar on its high for a high 2 buy setup off the EMA. But decent selling pressure over past few weeks, possible second leg down before bulls return.
