LINKUSDT 2-top, H&S, Butterfly; pullback to necklineLINKUSDT 2-top, H&S, Butterfly; pullback to neckline
After a retrace from the Stocks Market, LINKUSDT presents a perfect price action in bearish confluences after exit of a ascendent broadening bottom. We can see a Head and Shoulders in process now, exactly pull-backing to neckline, in a potential Double Top pattern. The prior swing before this pullback fitted 50% of a potential CD-leg of a Butterfly Harmonic Pattern. We can expect a 2nd downward from the neckline which is the weekly volume point of control (POC), strong resistance. A 1st short-term-target has been applied on an AB=CD projection. The 14.6% Fib level is my key level to put targets. Plus hidden bearish divergences on 1H chart w/ Ehlers Stochastic, Awesome Oscillator and Chaikin Money Flow. Definitely bearish.
Chaikin Oscillator (CHO)
$MSFT - potential support in phase 4 $MSFT has been in selloff and it's been frequently discussed these days. If we break current level, there is not much demand down to $220 and $208, which would be about 36-40% down from ATH, respectively.
I can see MSFT getting there if overall market is wacky. Chaikin Oscillator with Bollinger bands also generated sell signal on August 8th and since then it's been in an ugly downtrend. This also looks like a phase 4 - downtrend.
I'll wait patiently and might start adding to my position around 220. Good old MSFT.
Relational Technical Analysis: A New Way to Look at ChartsRelational Technical Analysis™ or “Relational Analysis” is my contribution to the continuing evolution of technical analysis. It helps me understand who is in control of the price action of stocks, indexes, ETFs and more. It can provide a leading analysis for trading or investing in any chartable trading instrument, even cryptocurrencies.
Relational Technical Analysis starts with an understanding of the current market participant cycle. There are 2 sides of the market participant cycle, each with a few different groups: the Professional Side and the Retail Side.
The Professional-Side Groups:
the Buy-Side Institutions, which I often refer to as “the Dark Pools”
the Sell-Side Institutions, which include the Money Central Banks and largest Financial Services Companies
the Professional Traders, both independent and Floor traders for either the Buy Side or Sell Side
the High Frequency Trading Firms, aka HFTs
The Retail-Side groups:
Smaller Funds with less than $3 billion under management
the Retail Groups: small lots and odd lots
At any given time, one or two of these groups will dominate the price, trend and direction of an asset. Relational Technical Analysis reveals which of the market participant groups is in control. This is due to the differences between the way each group trades--how they execute trades, their reasons for buying and selling, their access to information, where in the trend they tend to buy and sell, and more.
For example, there are huge differences between the order types and speed of execution of each market participant group:
Order Types: The Professional side uses unique orders to their trading venues such as Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP) strategies for automated orders and multi-leg cross-market orders. Retail uses Market and Limit orders; Small Funds often use Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) strategies to trigger automated orders.
Speed of Execution: The Professional-Side short-term traders trade on the second. HFTs trade on the millisecond. Retail orders must be filled within 1 minute. Dark Pool transactions can take up to 10 minutes or longer to fill huge, large-lot orders, based on the SEC Midas data analysis.
Additional variables include Lot Size, Time of Day trades are transacted and Venue (whether on the public exchanges or on Alternative Transaction Systems like Dark Pools).
These variables create very different patterns in candlesticks and indicators. Analyzing charts relationally, then, gives the trader an understanding of how price is most likely to behave in the near term. When the Professional Side is in control, the trend is typically more sustainable.
Relational Technical Analysis uses a combination of the price and volume patterns created by each market participant group along with hybrid indicators that reveal the balance of power. The example below uses Chaikin Oscillator. A Volume Oscillator is always included in the set of 5 indicators I teach, a set which differs depending on which indicators you have available.
On the SPX, we can see the shift of sentiment that occurred between October and January as the Dark Pools sold against the Small Funds.
In October and November of 2021, there was extreme speculation from the Small Funds. The steep run up occurred on low volume and an extreme angle of ascent in Chaikin Oscillator.
This was followed by a pattern that represents Dark Pool rotation. A trading range develops with stronger selling volume while Chaikin Oscillator moves down and stays at and below the center line over the topping pattern development. This rotation zone is confirmed in the months following, as Dark Pool TWAPs continue. The largest institutions were lowering their inventory of S&P500 components ahead of the downtrend.
This Relational Technical Analysis showed a Shift of Sentiment in the market that was a crucial leading indication of the risk of a significant downside trend developing. Traders using this analysis had ample time to prepare for the downtrend which resulted in a Bear Market decline this year.
Thinking ahead from here, I'm looking for the opposite as a bottom starts developing: a shift of sentiment back to the upside where Retail and Small Funds capitulate, followed by Dark Pool accumulation patterns.
In summary, Relational Technical Analysis is a new way of looking at the charts which focuses on the unique candlestick patterns, trend formations and indicator patterns that each market participant group creates. This can provide a leading analysis for all trading styles.
Martha Stokes, CMT
www.TechniTrader.Courses
This has been an introduction to Relational Technical Analysis, which I teach at TechniTrader and which I presented to the CMT Association in 2015.
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
BTCUSDT short updatedTriangle breakout on this H1 chart volume decreasing with Chaikin Money Flow falling below zero. 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement key level to watch for retest. Big show of weakness. Big selling pressure. 14.6% Fibo target maintained in confluence on this triangle pattern. 2nd target below on AB=CD pattern in confluence with local support as we can see in my last update today.
BTCUSDT Fibonacci Retracement -188.6%Fibonacci Retracement 188.6% new intraday target. Chaikin Money Flow dives below zero. Fisher Transform H2 bearish momentum. 37/36.9k is the key level to short this currency in a top of the bearish flag (triangle) in formation. I put gasoline on this road. Pivots all based on Fibonacci ratios.
BTCUSDT monthly overviewBTCUSDT long term overview. Confluences: Show of weakness w/ Chaikin Oscillator, divergence from ATH in Awesome Oscillator and show of continuation tendence w/ Fisher Transform. Weekly condition is bearish. Head and Shoulder target in daily timeframe: pullback to neckline accomplished, TP1; Fibonacci Retracement from bear flag target is TP2. Chaikin Oscillator is near of zero below. Big SOW. Price can dump below 32,9k.
AMD Reports: Planning for Each ScenarioAMD reports after the close today and is expected to have strong revenues over last quarter. The chart patterns suggest some Pro Traders setting up ahead of the report.
The question is how far can it rise on the retail reaction to the report? Where are the sellers? See the red lines. 124 is the strongest resistance for the short-term trend, but there are potential stalling levels on the way up as well.
Earnings reactions can be a very short-lived event, so prepare to take profits when the pro traders do. They trade against retail.
Chaikin Oscillator From ScratchHi, traders!
Today we'll speak about one of the most pretty instrument of divergence detection.
The Chaikin oscillator is named for its creator Marc Chaikin.1
The oscillator measures the accumulation-distribution line of moving average convergence-divergence (MACD). To calculate the Chaikin oscillator, subtract a 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the accumulation-distribution line from a 3-day EMA of the accumulation-distribution line. This measures momentum predicted by oscillations around the accumulation-distribution line.
The purpose of the Chaikin oscillator is to identify underlying momentum during fluctuations in accumulation-distribution. Specifically, it applies the MACD indicator to accumulation-distribution rather than closing prices.
For example, a trader wants to determine whether a coin price is more likely to go up or to fall and MACD is trending higher. The Chaikin oscillator generates a bullish divergence when it crosses above a baseline. The baseline is called the accumulation-distribution line. A cross above that line indicates that traders are accumulating, which is typically bullish.
The Chaikin oscillator utilizes two primary buy and sell signals. First, a positive divergence is confirmed with a center-line crossover above the accumulation-distribution line, signaling a potential buying opportunity. Second, a negative divergence is confirmed with a center-line crossover below the accumulation-distribution line, signaling a potential selling opportunity.
A positive divergence signals a coin price is likely to rise, given the increase in accumulation. A negative divergence signals a coin price is likely to fall, given the increase in distribution.
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
LITECOIN COULD RUN BUT BE CAREFULLTC could run here after breaking out of ascending wedge with RSI suggesting bullish continuation. Be careful as Chaikin is pointing towards a bearish divergence which could test the support.
Long term goals of $246 and $300.
Lots of fundamental news backing these targets up too.
$TSLATesla , Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits. It provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; and purchase financing and leasing services. This segment is also involved in the provision of non-warranty after-sales vehicle services, sale of used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance, as well as sale of products through its subsidiaries to third party customers; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations, and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. This segment also offers service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty; and various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla , Inc. in February 2017. Tesla , Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
bull pennant formation or down trend?Chaikin and premier stochastic oscillators showing some signs of upward breakout out of the pennant. Volume profile makes sense for the pennant formation and pole.
Personally going to wait to see if price breaks through the 1.26 ish level before entry (yellow ray). other notable levels are seen with the other horizontal rays.
Bitcoin, fases lunares, RSI y Chaikin A/D OscillatorChaikin A / D Oscillator The buy signal is generated when prices reach a new low or support and this is not confirmed by a new low in the indicator, leading to a bullish divergence. And preferably, later, when the oscillator crosses the zero line upward. Crossing Zero we see this as the beginning of a bullish momentum.
Oversold RSI
Moon phases marking the paute
Abysmal Retail Sales, Bearish DivergenceBearish divergence on the Chaikin and the Fisher Transform, dangerous amount of momentum available if reality starts kicking in here. Falling volume giving an indication of uncertainty at these levels, to be expected. Be patient and watch how it behaves near the 100 VWMA. PPT is still active and will actively seek to eat shorts alive.
Retail sales sink 1.2% in December in the worst plunge in nine years
KO Earnings: Dark Pool Rotation vs. BuybacksCoca Cola has been in a major buyback mode for its stock in an attempt to move the price up. The buybacks have faced heavier than normal Dark Pool rotation (large lot selling) against the automated buyback orders. Recently the buybacks have increased, creating some interesting anomalies in the large lot indicators as well as in price patterns. Retail traders, who trade this stock heavily, are often fooled by buyback candlestick patterns. Institutional holdings has declined, which is unusual during a buyback mode.
BTCUSD 1D - Heikin Ashi, Bollinger Bands, CCIOBV & ChaikinThis is a 1D BTCUSD chart (BitStamp) using Heikin Ashi candlesticks, Bollinger Bands, EMA (9, 15, 21, 55), a custom CCIOBV indicator and a CMF indicator. Reviewing 1 month.
Heikin Ashi is another Japanese candlestick pattern and HA actually means ‘average’ in Japanese. It does just that, averaging out price movements using a weighted calculation I won’t cover here (refer to Investopedia - www.investopedia.com). Effectively what you need to understand is that it smoothes out price action by reducing noise and making key trends easier to identify. This is great for trend traders, not so great for day traders that rely on volatility and short term price action.
Over the last month, we have seen 20 red candles and 10 green, the most bullish month in a while. Price action has consolidated after the large move down in November, oscillating around 1,000k over the month and clearly consolidating around the 4000 S&R area over the last week. The most recent price action over Xmas to New Years has been bearish to neutral, which trading volume down as most are away from their screens.
Bollinger Bands, the three blue bands that ‘wrap’ around the BTC price, were developed by a guy called Bollinger. The top and bottom blue lines are simple 2 SMA away from the current price, while the line in the centre is the average of the two. The great things about this indicator is that we know, 90% of the price action will occur within these bands. And generally, if the price is at the top/bottom 20% of a band we are likely to see some price action towards the middle of that band in the near future. This is based on the simple concept that price’s oscillate around an equilibrium.
Since the violent bearish price action in November the BB have gradually contracted. This reflects the tightening range of the price action over the last month of about 1k only. Note that the BB were much tighter, or contracted in November, then they are now so we could see this market consolidate more over the next few weeks before another breakout. This is probably the most valuable concept behind BB, called the squeeze, is basically the idea that as price bands tighten, they will eventually pop with price breaking out. At this price level a hedge, either up or down, is worth placing.
Volume is one of the most reliable indicators but it is important that you understand how much wash trading is happening on most exchanges and choose to trade only on reliable exchanges (read this for more information - www.blockchaintransparency.org). The volume has declined since the 20th of December, diverging from the price action overall, and heading to levels not seen since early November (the last dump…) This is a very bearish signal IMHO, even after seasonal (Xmas etc) and factored in. Remember that weak volume goes hand in hand with weak trending (price consolidation and sideways action). For how long before another breakout is the question? IMHO Volume this low tends to indicate that it can’t be long and it the breakout could be bearish .
The CCIOBV is a custom indicator by Lazy Bear (you can get it here - ). It combines two oscillators, the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) and OBV (On Balance Volume) and it’s complex to explain but it provides very interesting information. By simply colour coding the indicators, it is easy to read this indicator. Green for bullish, red for bearish and the Signal indicator is orange. Basically if the CCIOBV is green and above the orange Signal indicator, we are in a bullish trend.
The CCIOBV key changes from red to green, vice versa, can clearly be seen by the vertical lines I have added to the chart. If I simply traded based on this indicator alone I would be a successful trader but simply buying and selling the day after the indicator changes colour and by looking at it’s relative position to the Signal line. It turned bearish on the 2nd of December and flipped bullish on the 16th, then tracked it all the way to 24th of December when it flipped bearish again until the end of the month. If you do just swing trade over several day periods, this indicator alone would make you money. Although it is bullish now, as it is sitting on the Signal line, it is not a low risk trade because the market is going sideways and we are approaching a possible breakout point. Without hedging it would be a risky trend trade IMHO.
The Chaikin Oscillator (www.investopedia.com) is my final indicator, something I am testing at the moment but still not 100% confident with. Chaikin Oscillator is an indicator of the MACD, which is an indicator of the EMA, which is an indicator of the MA, which is an indicator of price action. I won’t get into the details of how it is calculated, but will try and describe what it tries to tell us. Technical analysts believe that the balance between buyers and sellers is what drives the markets. TA use indicators to measure the balance between buyers and sellers, including accumulation/distribution indicators like the Chaikin Oscillator. When the CO crosses the zero line, that is bullish buy action, and vice versa. Standard settings are 3 and 10 day EMAs, can make the indicator less responsive with 21 and 15, for example.
The CO remained in negative territory until the 19th of December, when it switched positive. The indicator was lagging significantly compared with other indicators, but it does provide further confirmation of a change in volume. What is interesting to see since the 20th is a tightening of the CO around the zero line, indicating neither positive or negative. This sideways action may preclude a major price move.
Overall I am neutral to longer term bearish. Although we have seen some bullish candlestick action, the follow through has not been strong and volume has been declining for the last week of the month. The CCIOBV offers no clear trend, although it is short term bullish. While the Chaikin Oscillator is sitting around the zero line, we see no strong bullish volume. The longer this goes on, the more bearish I will get.
19,500 by End Aug/ Early Sept? ONLY IF...Even if my chart yesterday shows possible recovery by January 2019:
Current movement shows it may even follow my much earlier chart which indicated possible recovery as early as end of this August or early September.
Here is my OLD chart from June indicating possible recovery by end-Aug or early Sept:
This is DESPITE the current bearish sentiment after yesterday's crash.
Here is my NEW chart again (same as the main chart on this post), showing possible recovery by end-Aug or early Sept, matching my June chart:
Again, this is ONLY IF we've already seen bottom... hmmm