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2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 56 (0.466 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge It looks like we are finally getting some volatility and this is very exciting. In order for me to succeed with this challenge I need a big trend that I am able to enter into early in the game. The chop that has occurred over the last two months has been very difficult to trade. If USDTRY can resume it’s bullish trend then it is game on. I am ready to bet big on this one, but as always will be starting small. The 4h chart recently had a red 9 at support and that was a good opportunity for me to start building a position. Next I am watching for a golden cross with the 50 and 200 EMA’s. After that I will be watching for the same golden cross but on the Daily. If that goes as expected then I will be building a long position of ~10 BTC. If all goes according to plan and then my most conservative target gets hit I will be back in the green for this challenge. The chances of that happening are realistic but not necessarily to be expected. As long as I continue to diligently manage risk and wait for ideal entries then I am confident I can get this challenge going in the right direction in the allotted time frame. The crypto markets are also very interested for the first time in months. It is right on the verge of making a big move as far as I can tell. To learn more about what I am watching for see the Watchtower below as well as the 335th day of the Bitcoin Daily Update . Open Positions Exposure: 0.14 lots (3.66 BTC) Long USDTRY Enter: $5.3107 Stop: $5.236 Risk: 1.39% Watchtower USDTRY Notes: Price getting squeeze in between 50 & 200 EMA’s on 4h and D. Gameplan: Add if 4h GC. Add on D GC if not too far away from price. Close > $5.56 is another signal to add Target: $6.55 (ATH Retest) & $8.00 (Big W Target) ETHBTC Patterns: Descending triangle. Notes: Getting squeezed between 50 & 200 D EMA’s with beautiful cupping pattern Target: 0.07 if break triangle to upside Gameplan: Waiting to see how market reacts to Hard Fork. The technicals are very bullish, but Hard Forks are generally a sell. This might be different since there is no alt token being created. ETHUSD Notes: First bullish crossover with 4 & 9 week EMA’s since April 23, 18. Only the 2nd since Feb 2017. Gameplan: Same as above LTCBTC Notes: Weekly golden cross with price above 200 W EMA. Gameplan: If BTC can close a daily above $3,922 then I will be looking for longs. Will enter on LTC if ETH hard fork hasn’t happened yet.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
4
Bitcoin Daily Update - Day 49 (0.3816 BTC) Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge When there is a nice pump in the crypto markets I like to look for laggards. The best one that I am seeing right now is Bitcoin Cash. Many will be thinking that it simply will not bounce because it is such a piece of shit fundamentally, however that is not my perception. I do think it is a complete piece of shit, but I also think it will bounce with the market. It is one of the most emotional coins out there - meaning the holders are doing so out of emotion and the stayers away are doing so because of emotion. Where there is emotion there is an opportunity to profit imo. Bitcoin Cash is a prime example of this. I really like the idea of taking profit on the positions that are moving in my favor and reallocating that into coins that appear to be lagging behind. That was essentially what I was able to do with LTC and then ETH. Hopefully the third time is also a charm! This brings up an important topic for me. I believe in technical analysis so much that I am comfortable disregarding the ticker. Who cares what the ticker is if the chart looks bullish af? I certainly don't. There is limitations once the market becomes too illiquid but I do not feel like that is the case with BCH. Hopefully I will change my mind sometime later this year due to a mass exodus. The overall bankroll is still not looking pretty but the unrealized profit currently sits at +0.333 BTC. I am very hopeful that this run can bring me back above 1 BTC for my trading challenge. If that happens then I will be in a very good position to get back into the green by shorting the bounce once it becomes exhausted. All we need is a little momentum and completing this challenge is still very well within reason! Open Positions Short XRPUSD Exposure: 6,300 XRP / 0.522 BTC Price: $0.307 Stop: $0.2959 Risk: 3.61% Partial Take Profit Order: $0.35 Unrealized Profit: +0.02911 BTC Long LTCH19 Exposure: 12 LTC / 0.113 BTC Price: 0.00946 Stop: 0.0111 Realized PnL: +0.0607 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0177 BTC *Entered stop order to add 23 LTC at 0.01291 with 0.01164 stop loss Long XBTM19 Exposure: $4,232 / 1.07 BTC Enter: $3,586 Stop: $3,586 Realized PnL: +0.0085 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.1009 BTC Long ETHUSD #1 Exposure: 11.64 ETH / 0.43 BTC Enter: $122 Stop: $128 Realized PnL: +0.0374 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.071 BTC Long ETHUSD #2 Exposure: 12 ETH / 0.444 BTC Enter: $116.63 Stop: $128 Unrealized PnL: +0.0888 BTC Long BCHUSD Exposure: 3.5 BCH / 0.1302 BTC Enter: $125.55 Stop: $125.55 Unrealized PnL: +0.018 BTC Open Order Stop Order to Long BCHH19 Exposure: 11 BCH / 0.4366 BTC Enter: 0.0384 Stop: 0.0399 Risk: 11.4%
Long
by Sawcruhteez
2
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 39 (0.3077 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge It has been a while since the last update to the trading challenge and that is for good reason. It is not because I am losing motivation or getting discouraged, it is because these markets have been locked in ranges and I have been patiently waiting for a trend. With very little entering / exiting being done I did not see the need for a daily post. My intention is to record my trading results in real time, and I have realized that daily updates are not needed to accomplish that goal. The challenge did not start how I wanted and I was beating myself in the moment. However in hindsight I do not feel back about my performance at all. I have been trading crypto, FOREX and SPXUSD primarily and I would be highly impressed by anyone who made money in those markets thus far in 2019. Crypto was sideways, FOREX was very chopping and provided many false signals / whipsaws (at least for USD pairs). The S&P slicing right through $2,650 on tiny volume still makes 0 sense to me. Now that I have some positions moving in my favor I am hopeful that we can get this challenge out of the gutter. I am expecting a big rally in crypto due to alts bouncing from major horizontal support and total market cap supporting above $100B. I have built a good amount of long exposure, relative to remaining bankroll, and I still have ~33% on the sidelines waiting to add if the positions continue to move in my favor. Open Positions Short XRPUSD Exposure: 1,200 XRP / 0.104 BTC Price: $0.299 Stop: $0.27784 Risk: 7.07% Long LTCH19 Exposure: 43 LTC / 0.40678 BTC Price: 0.00946 Stop: 0.00947 Long WTIUSD Exposure: 0.12 lots / 0.1966 BTC Price: $55.30 Stop: $51.39 Risk: 7% Long XBTM19 Exposure: 0.311 BTC Enter: $3,392 Stop: $3,224 Risk: 4.9% Long XBTUSD Exposure: $5,000 / 1.384 BTC Enter: $3,612.50 Stop: $3,584 Risk: 0.78% Open Order Order to add to XRPUSD Long Stop Entry: $0.32267 Stop Loss: $0.2839 Risk: 11.8% Exposure: 0.29 lots / 2,929 XRP / 0.2548 BTC Order Entered to long ETHUSD Stop Entry: $125.9 Stop Loss:$108.9 Risk: 13.6% Exposure: 4.8 ETH / 0.1538 BTC Order to open long on BCHUSD Stop Entry: $131.26 Stop Loss; $112.95 Risk: 13.94% Exposure: 3.05 lots / 3.05 BCH / 0.107 BTC Watchtower XAU Notes: Weekly green 9. Bear div in daily RSI, as well as ADX, while price tests major resistance. Massive resistance from $1,305 to $1,355. If breakthrough $1,355 then retesting ATH’s seems very likely. If not then this could pullback sharply to the $1,200 area. Pumping to $1,350 and then forming a c&h would be ideal. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form c&h. Weekly close > $1,355 is my signal to fully enter. XAG Alerts: Symmetrical Triangle Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s. On weekly green 9. Daily RSI bear div. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form Big W. Throwback to TL is another ideal entry. ETHBTC Patterns: Looks like 5 waves + ABC correction Notes: Watching 3D Consensio + Stochastic. Love seeing spike and then retrace to bullish L MA. BTC market cap dominance at crucial area, could be forming descending triangle. Watching W S MA & bearish D L MA. Weekly golden cross at support. Target: 0.065 if break triangle to upside Gameplan: Watch D M MA + 2.5 week bear TL. Should be plenty of resistance from 0.032 - 0.034 to provide favorable entry. BCHUSD Notes: Breaking through ~ 6 week TL, like how daily MA’s are coming together in Consensio. $400 is obvious target, however looking at W SAR & 24 W MA in $300 neighborhood as area to scale out. Can get back in if break W SAR.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 31 (0.3718 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Over the past week or two I have not seen any setups that interest me. I am wanting to get this challenge back on track and my hands were tied while there were not any desirable entries. Doing this challenge publicly makes me feel anxious to get back into positions but I know that becoming impatient is the last thing I can afford to do right now. To ensure that is not happening I have been significantly decreasing exposure and trying my best to wait for the best possible setups. Once I see a setup that I really like then I am waiting an extra day before entering and then I am preferring to use stop entries to make sure market is moving in my favor. Trading can be a fickle bitch and it is very much a game of: what have you done lately? It is one thing to not be results oriented while trading, but if taken too far that can clout judgement and cause delusional beliefs in one's ability. I try my best to always remain objective and that requires constantly examining / learning from my mistakes. There were certainly some significant mistakes that were made over this past month that I am paying close attention to. January Worst Dressed Trade USDTRY I got overconfident and overexposed myself before the trade moved in my favor. I love starting small to test the market and make sure that it is heading in my favor, then only adding once I have increased confidence in the trend. In this case I started with closer to 50% of my desired position size than 5%. On one hand I do not want to be results oriented, because this did have a very high probability of success and when trading hyperwaves buying a pullback to phase 3 is the best entry. 85% of hyperwaves in phase 3 go onto complete the cycle. On the other hand this one was a bit funky and I firmly believe it was a mistake to enter the position size that I did that early on in the game. The large majority of my losses over the past month have come from being bullish the dollar and bearish the stock market. I am tentatively starting to turn bearish the USD and I am staying tf away from the stock market until I understand more what is going on there. Gold, Silver and Palladium are very, very interesting right now. I am expecting a 1 - 4 week pullback from here and will be hoping to find high probability long entries during that time. Open Positions Short XRPUSD Exposure: 1,000 XRP / 0.081 BTC Price: $0.30791 Stop: $0.27784 Risk: 9.76% Short USDJPY Exposure: 0.04 lots / 1.1782 BTC Price: $108.79 Stop: $110.056 Risk: 1.06% Pending Orders (1) LTCH19 stop buy entered on 1/30 Exposure: 27 LTC / 0.24867 BTC Price: 0.00921 Stop: 0.00824 Risk: 10.53% (2) Stop order to long WTIUSD entered on 1/31 Exposure: 0.12 lots / 0.195 BTC Price: $55.26 Stop: $51.39 Risk: 7% Watchtower XAU Notes: Weekly green 9. Bear div in daily RSI, as well as ADX, while price tests major resistance. Massive resistance from $1,305 to $1,355. If breakthrough $1,355 then retesting ATH’s seems very likely. If not then this could pullback sharply to the $1,200 area. Pumping to $1,350 and then forming a c&h would be ideal. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form c&h. Weekly close > $1,355 is my signal to fully enter. XAG Alerts: Symmetrical Triangle Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s. On weekly green 9. Daily RSI bear div. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form Big W. Throwback to TL is another ideal entry. ETHBTC Patterns: Looks like 5 waves + ABC correction Notes: Watching 3D Consensio + Stochastic. Love seeing spike and then retrace to bullish L MA. BTC market cap dominance at crucial area, could be forming descending triangle. Watching W S MA & bearish D L MA. Weekly golden cross at support. Target: 0.065 if break triangle to upside Gameplan: Watch D M MA + 2.5 week bear TL. Should be plenty of resistance from 0.032 - 0.034 to provide favorable entry.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
2
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 28 (0.3718 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge My short on Gold was stopped out on 1/25 and that brings the losing streak to ten in a row. I have booked ten losing trades in a row before, probably more times than I can count on one hand, however I cannot remember the last time that I was this surprised / frustrated by the markets. Starting with the S&P 500 short: I was as confident as I could reasonably be that $2,600 - $2,650 would hold as resistance. The rapidly decreasing volume and confluence of overbought indicators provided strong confirmation. Watching the price cut through that area like a knife through butter was and is very hard for me to wrap my head around. If there was a volume spike it would make sense, but there was not and I am still left scratching my head. USD:TRY Long: Coming into 2019 I had labeled this my most confident long out of a list of ~ 20 markets I planned to trade this year. There wasn't really a close second, this was the trade that I was most excited about. I started small and intended to bet huge. I didn’t get the chance to add on nearly as much as I planned and this trade has still been my most costly of the year. From highest hopes to biggest loser is very frustrating. To add insult to injury it looks like there is a high chance that I got stopped out on a shakeout before the breakout. XAU:USD Short: Those two trades above confused me more than any trade I took in 2018 and this one might take the cake. I still cannot believe that Gold closed above $1,300 and it makes me wonder if the selloff this summer was a massive shakeout before the next breakout. There was a ton of built up resistance at that area and the price was extremely overbought by the time it got there. It got so overbought that it formed a 5 month parabolic advance. I patiently waited for that to breakdown before entering my short. That rally on Friday was absolutely mind boggling. After breaking down the parabolic advance it goes on to make a +1.71% move in one day and close the daily above: the 8 year bear TL, the 4 year bull TL that we broke down in July which was expected to act as resistance on a throwback as well as $1,300 horizontal resistance. When this type of crazy volatility occurs it is likely foreshadowing the next big move. Markets love to shakeout traders before making a big move and I certainly just got shook the fook out! Instead of licking my wounds it is time to stay on red alert and be ready to trade either side of the markets. The following is a very common pattern: tight consolidation -> shakeout -> massive trend. Taking a relatively small loss before capitalizing on a big trend is a large part of what profitable trading is all about. However, if the shakeout causes me to become gun-shy or trepidatious then it could cause me to miss the following trend and that mentality is disastrous. Times like this remind me of a quote from my late father: “Sometimes the lights get turned out and there is seemingly nothing that you can do to turn them back on.” During times like this all I can do is focus on diligently managing risk and maintaining a strong belief that the wins will eventually take care of themselves. I am decreasing my position size as a way to preserve my bankroll while I attempt to get some wins back under my belt. The lights have been turned out on me and that is a very unfortunate way to stay 2019, however: “It is always darkest before the sun shines” If handled correctly then times like this can provide the lessons / energy / focus / humility that is needed to take my game to the next level! Open Positions Long: USDCAD *1/17/19 Stop order entered to open long primarily due to recent golden cross with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%) Price: $1.33032 Stop: $1.3149 Risk: 1.15% / 0.07 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.21 lots Margin: 0.057 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.002 BTC Closed Positions Short: XAUUSD * STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots * STOP LOSS TRIGGERED on 1/25/19 Enter: $1,284.73 Stop: $1,297.34 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.05 lots Margin: 0.016 BTC PnL: -0.018191 BTC ROI: -3.16% Watchtower XAU Alert: Close > $1,300 + weekly close > bear TL I had drawn from ATH. Notes: I have re adjusted the bear TL to as high as it can go. Weekly close above $1,305 is a buy signal. Close > $1,355 would be signal to add. Weekly cloud at $1,262 looks like a great entry. XAG Alerts: Descending Triangle Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s USDTRY Patterns: Looks like Bulkowski Big W is forming Confirmation: Watching for weekly close > $5.45 & confirmation of inverted hammer at $5.75 S&P 500 Alerts: Notes: L MA on weekly has rolled over and is expected to act as strong resistance at $2,700. Also watch bear TL that connects 10/1 to 12/3. Apple Notes: Expecting bounce from 200 W MA and target is $191. Earnings expected 1/29. Daily Cloud is very bearish. Watching for daily GC + L MA roll up. BTC Notes: Watching for Stochastics on daily, 3D and weekly to be in confluence. Until then I am expected further chop. Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC Notes: Weekly close below symmetrical triangle triggered short entry. Passing due to how rapidly the daily parabolic SAR’s are accelerating downward, which is a strong indicator to me that it is oversold / ready for a bounce. ETHUSD: Patterns: 5 month bear channel Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. 3d on r7 and daily on r9 while stochastics are returning to oversold territory. Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA & 3D TDST)
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Sawcruhteez
3
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 24 (0.39 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I am currently in Las Vegas for the Unconfiscatable Conference and I didn’t have intentions of making another update until returning home. However the stop loss on my USD:TRY long was triggered and because of that I felt the need to make another post. I had high hopes for that trade. I was expecting it claw out of it’s unrealized loss and go onto makeup for a large portion of the deficit that I got myself into with the string of losses that started this challenge. That position easily could have netted me 1+ BTC over the coming weeks / months. Instead it broke down $5.25, triggered my stop and capitalized on a loss of 0.3425 BTC. That puts me into a deep hole and it will make it very difficult to complete this challenge on time. Now the challenge will be to get back to breakeven in the next three months. If I can do that then I believe it is still possible to complete the original goal of +1,000% in less than 6 months. A big part of the motivation for starting this challenge is to inspire others who have gotten completely rekt throughout this bear market and what better way to do that then to get completely rekt myself?! If it wasn’t for this challenge I would likely take a few weeks off and deposit another ~ 1.5 BTC. Instead I am going to roll up my sleeves, decrease my risk and get back to work. Open Positions Short: XAUUSD * STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots Price: $1,284.73 Stop: $1,297.26 Projected Risk: 0.97% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.05 lots Margin: 0.016 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.004 BTC Long: USDCAD *1/17/19 Stop order entered to open long primarily due to recent golden cross with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%) Price: $1.33032 Stop: $1.3149 Risk: 1.15% / 0.07 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.21 lots Margin: 0.057 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.002 BTC Closed Positions Long: USDTRY Enter: $5.55804 Exposure: $16,000 Leverage: 100:1 PnL: -0.3425 BTC ROI: -7.81% Watchtower . BTC Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist. ETHUSD: Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA) LTCUSD: Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
by Sawcruhteez
4
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - day 18 (0.732 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I felt very confident that resistance was going to hold at $2,650 on the S&P 500. The price was forming a rising wedge and volume was decreasing rapidly. Very strong resistance was expected due to $2,600 - $2,650 providing support for 10 months in 2018, that was confirmed by the visible range volume profile. There must have been some change in sentiment that I am unaware of because the price shot right through that area with very little difficulty. Either that or it was a nasty bear trap that just forced most shorts to cover before an epic selloff / gap down on Monday. Regardless I just booked my 9th losing trade in a row which puts me in a deep hole less than three weeks after starting this challenge. As mentioned yesterday I am going to scale down my risk per position due to the limited bankroll that is available. I am also going to take some time off to try and regroup / refocus. I am reminded of a common saying we have all heard: “If it was easy then everyone would do it” Open Positions Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.182 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Short: XAUUSD * STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots Price: $1,284.73 Projected Risk: 1.16% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.05 lots Margin: 0.016 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.004 BTC Open Orders Long USD:CAD *1/17/19: Entered order to long 0.21 lots at $1.3303 with a $1.3149 stop loss. Expected risk = 1.15% / 0.07 BTC Recent GGC with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%) Could have entered at daily close but instead of buying resistance set stop entry slightly above current price. This was a lesson I learned from my string off losses, a number would have been avoided with this approach. Closed Positions Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% *1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656. Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.18 lots Realized PnL: -0.5879 BTC ROI: -4.8% Notes: Cannot believe what I just saw. Can’t remember a time watching a price move through that much resistance on that little volume after being so overbought. Watchtower . BTC Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist. ETHUSD: Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA) LTCUSD: Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
1
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 17 (1.203 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Today I was stopped out of my XRP long and that is my 8th losing trade in a row since beginning this challenge. Combine that with 0 wins and I find myself in a large hole. Judging by the number of likes and views that this has been getting people are noticing and losing interest very quickly. That is okay though because this right here is what separates the doers from the tryers: When the going gets tough, the tough get going If you understand standard deviation then you know that losing streaks are to be expected, but at what point do you point the finger at yourself instead of at the variance? I try to focus on the process instead of the results, however when the results are this poor I am forced to take a step back to see if there was anything under my control that I could have done differently. There are a number of things that I will do differently moving forward but the biggest factor that jumps out at me is not zooming out enough. I was trading Consensio on the daily and completing disregarding the weekly and monthly charts. If I would have started with a longer term view then I would have been able to avoid a number of the losing positions that I entered. Following a string of losses most are inclined to increase leverage / relative risk and that is the absolute last thing that should be done. There will be a strong impulse to try to win back what was just lost but that needs to be avoided at all cost. Therefore I really like taking my risk down a notch until I get on the right side of the market for a few trades. That helps me to refocus, which is absolutely vital. Instead of focusing on winning my money back I am focused on making good trades. When starting this challenge I was targeting 0.1 BTC - 0.15 BTC risk per position. Now that my bankroll for this challenge has been almost sliced in half, I am going to target 0.025 BTC - 0.05 BTC risk per position. This helps me to feel confident that I am controlling my emotions. If I continue my losing streak then I will continue to scale down my risk. I will only look to ramp it back up once I capitalize on of few wins and start to get some mojo back. To add insult to injury I have been very interested in shorting NFLX leading up to this earnings report. It is phase 7 in a hyperwave and all the new was expected it to beat earnings by 30%+. Therefore buy the hype, sell the news. If they miss slightly then that would be an even better selling opportunity. However, I wasn't diligent enough in my preparation. The exchange I use doesn't offer NFLX so I tried to do a last minute transfer to a different BTC exchange that does. The transaction didn't confirm until after markets closed and now I may have missed my entry (markets falling in afterhours trading). When it rains it pours and that is why it is important to own a quality umbrella. Open Positions Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.182 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% *1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656. Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.374 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Has been super frustrating watching this position move against me. Open Orders Short XAU:USD *1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation. Long USD:CAD *1/17/19: Entered order to long 0.21 lots at $1.3303 with a $1.3149 stop loss. Expected risk = 1.15% / 0.07 BTC Recent GGC with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%) Could have entered at daily close but instead of buying resistance set stop entry slightly above current price. This was a lesson I learned from my string off losses, a number would have been avoided with this approach. Closed Positions LONG XRPH19 *1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market. *1/17/19 STOPPED OUT: On a wick that only occured on 2 out of 6 major exchanges. Very frustrating. Enter: 0.00009135 Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC) Leverage: 15X Realized PnL: -0.1327 BTC ROI: -7.16% / -107% Watchtower NFLX Notes: "Netflix beats on subscriber growth but misses slightly on revenue" gives me a $200 target based on VRVP and the 200 W MA BTC Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist. ETHUSD: Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA) LTCUSD: Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 16 (1.3313 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge From day 2: “This challenge is either going to get started with a bang or I am going to dig myself into a deep hole with the positions opened today. Only time will tell!” Well...time sure is telling and she is kind of being a bitch! These next few days are going to be absolutely critical for me. The S&P 500 is at the threshold that acted as support for 10 months in 2018. It stands to reason that it should act as strong resistance on the first throwback, especially due to being overbought based on multiple metrics. If it smashes through $2,650 then my mind will be blow. The Turkish Lira has been all over the news today due to Donald Trump threatening to “economically devastate” the country if Erdogan doesn't fall in line. USD:TRY immediately dumped 1.83% and retested the phase 3 trendline. If the weekly closes below the trendline then it is all over for my favorite long of 2019. I still remain confident that won’t happen but it is a little unnerving watching my two large positions testing the major areas or resistance / support that I have been watching. Based on my calculations if both stops trigger then I will lose another 0.7142 BTC. That would leave me with 0.6171 BTC in the trading roll for this challenge. I do believe that is still enough to complete the challenge on time, but that would sure make it very difficult. On the other hand if my support and resistance levels hold then the following moves should put me well into the green before January is over. Either way I have been working really hard on finding my next positions and I will continue to focus on the process instead of the results. As long as I continue to be diligent with risk management then the results will take care of themselves. Open Positions Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.182 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% *1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656. Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.374 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Major horizontal resistance from $2,600 - $2,650. Stop set at $2,656. Really want to see this week close < the 9 MA. LONG XRPH19 *1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market. Enter: 0.00009135 Stop: 0.00008888 Risk: 2.7% Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC) Leverage: 15X Unrealized PnL: +0.0099 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0046 BTC Notes: Entry was not based purely on Consensio. Bitcoin futures curve in backwardation with widening spread is main reason I was looking to add to my long exposure. Also looking at confluence of support from trend and horizontal. Guidelines would have me waiting for close above S MA to start scaling in, but I really liked the risk:reward provided at today’s close. Closed Positions Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. *1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA. *1/11/19 DEATH CROSS signals final scale out. However on TD red 9 at horizontal and trend support. Leaving stop at $13.64 due to bullish 200 MA and support cluster. Negligible difference in risk, huge difference in potential gain. *1/15/19 CLOSE OUT due to not feeling comfortable about my stop because it is above 50 MA that. Adjusting the stop below would have been unacceptable risk therefore I took my medicine and got out. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.075 BTC Realized PnL: -0.086 BTC Open Orders *1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation. Watchtower XAUUSD Notes: Testing major resistance level. Expecting it to hold. XAUUSD Pattern: Descending Triangle Notes: Recent death cross with 50 w and 200 w MA’s. Tightest ever monthly Bollinger Band squeeze indicates huge upcoming move. NFLX Notes: Trend resistance. Unsustainable move. Earnings expected on 1/17. ETHUSD Patterns: H&S forming on daily Notes: Daily Death Cross. Passing on short due to BTC backwardation + bullish L MA. XRPBTC Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over daily L MA following Death Cross. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 14 (1.4252 BTC) Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I might have had a little bit too much fun last night. I went to a bluegrass concert that started at 9:00 and I must have had too much to drink because I still feel like shit at 6:15 pm the next day. The struggle is real! Not having anything to drink tonight and I am looking forward to feeling like a champ again tomorrow. The markets have sure been interesting. Starting to track the futures curve is the only reason that I didn’t short BTC after yesterday’s close and I am sure glad that I didn’t! As long as we continue to hold support I gain confidence that $4,200 resistance will break and then we will be in for a strong 1 month + dead cat bounce. The S&P 500 looks like it is just coming to the end of that type of bounce. The TD Sequential is on a red 9, we have multiple reversal candles and there is a cluster of resistance from $2,600 - $2,650. USD:TRY continues to head fake > $5.5 and continues to close below the TDST level at that price. The M MA is diverging in a bullish manner and support continues to move up. This is my single favorite trade for 2019 and if we can close a daily candle > $5.5 then I think we should really start to pick up momentum. Open Positions Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.087 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. *1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA. *1/11/19 DEATH CROSS signals final scale out. However on TD red 9 at horizontal and trend support. Leaving stop at $13.64 due to bullish 200 MA and support cluster. Negligible difference in risk, huge difference in potential gain. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.075 BTC Realized PnL: -0.086 BTC Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% *1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656. Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.289 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Major horizontal resistance from $2,600 - $2,650. Stop set at $2,656. Really want to see this week close < the 9 MA. LONG XRPH19 *1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market. Enter: 0.00009135 Stop: 0.00008888 Risk: 2.7% Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC) Leverage: 15X Unrealized PnL: +0.0111 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0046 BTC Notes: Entry was not based purely on Consensio. Bitcoin futures curve in backwardation with widening spread is main reason I was looking to add to my long exposure. Also looking at confluence of support from trend and horizontal. Guidelines would have me waiting for close above S MA to start scaling in, but I really liked the risk:reward provided at today’s close. Open Orders *1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation. Watchtower USDHUF: 18 year symmetrical triangle. USDJPY: (leaning bearish) Consensio is bearish on Monthly chart indicating that the triangle has a greater chance of breaking down. Tightest monthly BB has been since 1976 when the price proceeded to move 41% in ~21 months. Think that retesting $80 is most likely. XRPUSD: In a Bollinger Band super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1 USDCAD: Approaching bullish 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross. Weekly A&E bottom with $1.63 target. Massive volume over last 3 years. Currently fitting into channel. Tightest weekly BB squeeze since 2000. WTIUSD: Pullback back and into golden cross BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. Backwardation appears to be getting slightly more exaggerated, currently 3.03%. ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Daily has potential incoming death cross which could occur right around the Constantinople Fork. LTCUSD: Waiting for close > daily saved me. Treating inside the cloud as a no trade zone can work very well. XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below. XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross. EURUSD: (leaning bullish) L MA and LL MA squeezing with price between on weekly and the LL MA appears to be making bullish reversal. Seeing a potential A&E bottom. Bollinger Band in tightest squeeze since 2014 and a 24% move followed that one. USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above bullish 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by Sawcruhteez
5
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 13 (1.4252 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Happy Sunday everyone! I hope that you had a great week, I sure know that I did. This afternoon I had a meeting with Leah Wald to teach her some poker strategy leading up to the Unconfiscatable Conference. For those who do not know it is a Bitcoin Conference that is being put on by Tone Vays. It is Jan 24th - 26th and there will be a 0.1 BTC poker tourney as part of the festivities. Not to mention that this is the very first time that Tyler Jenks is going to be revealing his full Hyperwave strategy! There is still a little room left and I would highly recommend signing up. If you do then shoot me a message and I will buy you a beer on one of the nights. For anyone wondering Leah is absolutely as lovely / brilliant in person as she is on Tone and Tyler’s podcasts. At 18 years of age she worked at the World Bank under the ministry of resources. She has been a founding partner of multiple businesses since then including a NPO 'Veterati' which helps unemployed Veterans find jobs. These are the types of people that make this ecosystem so special! Have you ever met so many brilliant, unique, interesting, hard working, and passionate individuals as you have in Bitcoin?! The challenge has been fairly uneventful over the weekend. I did get stopped out of my ETH long and after a sting of losses like I have experienced over the last couple weeks it is very easy to press or try to force it. This is the last thing that should be done. The weekly bearish engulfing made a short entry very appealing, however the market is still in backwardation and that is enough for me to pass up on a short. This next week should be very excited for the S&P 500 as well as USDTRY. I just need one of those positions to go in my favor in order to get back into the green for this challenge. Open Positions Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.066 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. *1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA. *1/11/19 DEATH CROSS signals final scale out. However on TD red 9 at horizontal and trend support. Leaving stop at $13.64 due to bullish 200 MA and support cluster. Negligible difference in risk, huge difference in potential gain. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.075 BTC Realized PnL: -0.068 BTC Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% *1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656. Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.289 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Major horizontal resistance from $2,600 - $2,650. Stop set at $2,656 LONG XRPH19 *1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market. Enter: 0.00009135 Stop: 0.00008888 Risk: 2.7% Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC) Leverage: 15X Unrealized PnL: -0.0229 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0046 BTC Notes: Entry was not based purely on Consensio. Bitcoin futures curve in backwardation with widening spread is main reason I was looking to add to my long exposure. Also looking at confluence of support from trend and horizontal. Guidelines would have me waiting for close above S MA to start scaling in, but I really liked the risk:reward provided at today’s close. Closed Positions Long ETHUSD *1/10/19 Scale in due to support from bullish L MA *1/13/19 STOPPED OUT Price: $125.68 Stop: $119.45 Risk: 4.9% Leverage: 10X Exposure: 12.68 ETH (0.4386 BTC) Projected Risk: 0.021 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0049 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0003 BTC Exit: $119.10 PnL: -0.0231 BTC ROI: -5.26% Notes: Am strongly prefering to use stops. It allows me to effectively control my risk. When I am not sure about the risk I am assuming then I feel very uncomfortable / anxious. To marry stop losses with Consensio I prefer starting out very small and using a wider than normal stop. Give the position plenty of room to develop and do not wait for stop to trigger if Consensio gets you out earlier. Then look to aggressively add when the position moves in our favor. Open Orders *1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation. Watchtower USDHUF: 18 year symmetrical triangle. USDJPY: (leaning bearish) Consensio is bearish on Monthly chart indicating that the triangle has a greater chance of breaking down. Tightest monthly BB has been since 1976 when the price proceeded to move 41% in ~21 months. Think that retesting $80 is most likely. XRPUSD: In a Bollinger Band super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1 USDCAD: Approaching bullish 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross. Weekly A&E bottom with $1.63 target. Massive volume over last 3 years. Currently fitting into channel. Tightest weekly BB squeeze since 2000. BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. Backwardation appears to be getting slightly more exaggerated, currently 3.03%. ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly appears to be getting rejected by TL + SAR. Potential for bearish englufing. Daily just broke SAR but is finding support from bullish L MA. ETHBTC: Potential weekly Golden Cross upcoming. Pullback to 33 day MA could represent could entry. LTCUSD: Waiting for close > daily cloud saved me. Treating inside the cloud as a not trade zone can work very well. Now it appears to be finding support from the TL and trying to create another higher low. XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below. XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross. EURUSD: (leaning bullish) L MA and LL MA squeezing with price between on weekly and the LL MA appears to be making bullish reversal. Seeing a potential A&E bottom. Bollinger Band in tightest squeeze since 2014 and a 24% move followed that one. USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above bullish 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - day 11 (1.4389 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge The slow start to this challenge has caused me to take a step back and look at the charts from a wider perspective. This is done as a way to verify my view of the overall trend as well as to look for any larger patterns that could be dominating the price movement. Trading a smaller pattern that is embedded within a larger pattern can often lead to whipsaws and traps. The big money / smarter traders will be looking at the larger pattern and trading it while using the smaller pattern to set traps and gain liquidity. USDHUF is a perfect example of this I was trying to trade the ascending triangle above while forgetting / failing to realize that the dominant chart pattern is a symmetrical triangle that has been forming over 18 years. It is okay to trade smaller patterns that form inside larger patterns as long as you are aware of the dominant pattern and it's implications. Open Positions Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0811 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. *1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA. *1/11/19 DEATH CROSS signals final scale out. However on TD red 9 at horizontal and trend support. Leaving stop at $13.64 due to bullish 200 MA and support cluster. Negligible difference in risk, huge difference in potential gain. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0777 BTC Realized PnL: -0.068 BTC Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% *1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656. Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.304 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Major horizontal resistance from $2,600 - $2,650. Stop set at $2,656 Long ETHUSD *1/10/19 Scale in due to support from bullish L MA Price: $125.68 Stop: $119.45 Risk: 4.9% Leverage: 10X Exposure: 12.68 ETH (0.4386 BTC) Projected Risk: 0.021 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0049 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0003 BTC LONG XRPH19 *1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market. Enter: 0.00009135 Stop: 0.00008888 Risk: 2.7% Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC) Leverage: 15X Unrealized PnL: +0.0028 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0046 BTC Notes: Entry was not based purely on Consensio. Bitcoin futures curve in backwardation with widening spread is main reason I was looking to add to my long exposure. Also looking at confluence of support from trend and horizontal. Guidelines would have me waiting for close above S MA to start scaling in, but I really liked the risk:reward provided at today’s close. Open Orders *1/10/19 Stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation. Watchtower USDHUF: 18 year symmetrical triangle. USDJPY: (leaning bearish) Consensio is bearish on Monthly chart indicating that the triangle has a greater chance of breaking down. Tightest monthly BB has been since 1976 when the price proceeded to move 41% in ~21 months. Think that retesting $80 is most likely. XRPUSD: In a Bollinger Band super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1 USDCAD: Approaching bullish 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross. Weekly A&E bottom with $1.63 target. Massive volume over last 3 years. Currently fitting into channel. Tightest weekly BB squeeze since 2000. BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. Backwardation appears to be getting slightly more exaggerated, currently 3.03%. ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly appears to be getting rejected by TL + SAR. Potential for bearish englufing. Daily just broke SAR but is finding support from bullish L MA. ETHBTC: Potential weekly Golden Cross upcoming. Pullback to 33 day MA could represent could entry. LTCUSD: Waiting for close > daily cloud saved me. Treating inside the cloud as a not trade zone can work very well. Now it appears to be finding support from the TL and trying to create another higher low. XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below. XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross. EURUSD: (leaning bullish) L MA and LL MA squeezing with price between on weekly and the LL MA appears to be making bullish reversal. Seeing a potential A&E bottom. Bollinger Band in tightest squeeze since 2014 and a 24% move followed that one. USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above bullish 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - day 10 (1.44 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge It never feels great to capitalize on a string of losses, but in a certain sense it can feel like a weight is being lifted off the shoulders. Holding onto positions that are underwater is stressful and induces anxiety. When I am fully exposed it also limits opening new trades. It can even turn into a helpless type of feeling where you have no control over the outcome. Once you make a decision and pull the trigger then the only thing that is left to do it wait and hope. However after shedding some lousy positions I start to feel agile and focused again. It starts to feel like the ball is back in my court and I get excited to prepare for my next shot. In “Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader” Peter Brandt talks about closing out all positions that are not turning a profit by weeks end. That was something that never resonated with me because I try to capture big moves, over larger TF’s, and feel comfortable giving my positions time to develop. However, Peter is also a swing trader who uses higher TF’s so I always wondered how he married those two techniques. Now I am starting to understand the genius of this approach and will be considering incorporating it into my strategy. If you are a breakout trader, which I am, then you are trying to enter right after a breakout and right before a big move / trend. If you think an asset is breaking out, and you are confident enough to take a position, then what does it tell you if the trade is still underwater after a few days? It tells me that I entered on a trap instead of a breakout. In this circumstance it could behoove me to exit asap instead of waiting for my stop to trigger or Consensio to signal an exit. Something else that is coming to mind is conserving one of the two most valuable resources that we have as traders: time and money. Losing money is apart of doing business and it can always be earned back. However holding onto a losing position for too long means that time is also being lost / wasted. There is nothing worse in this business than losing a significant amount of time and money. Open Positions Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.11 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. *1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.075 BTC Realized PnL: -0.068 BTC Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.289 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge. Long ETHUSD *1/10/19 Scale in due to support from bullish L MA Price: $125.68 Stop: $119.45 Risk: 4.9% Leverage: 10X Exposure: 12.68 ETH (0.4386 BTC) Projected Risk: 0.021 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0049 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0003 BTC Closed Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven *1/10/19 STOPPED OUT - small loss due to fees / funding Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0257 BTC ROI: -2.70% Open Orders *1/10/19 CANCELLED due to support breakdown. Stop Market to long 1.645 XBTH19 @ $4,037. *1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation. *1/10/19 CANCELLED due to support breakdown. Stop Market to buy XRPUSD @ $0.528. Watchtower Today is decision time. If we close towards the bottom of the candle then will remove bullish entries from Watchtower and will start hunting for shorts. USDJPY: (leaning bearish) Consensio is bearish on Monthly chart indicating that the triangle has a greater chance of breaking down. Tightest monthly BB has been since 1976 when the price proceeded to move 41% in ~21 months. Think that retesting $80 is most likely. XRPUSD: In a Bollinger Band super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1 USDCAD: Approaching bullish 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross. Weekly A&E bottom with $1.63 target. Massive volume over last 3 years. Currently fitting into channel. Tightest weekly BB squeeze since 2000. BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. Backwardation appears to be getting slightly more exaggerated, currently 3.03%. ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly appears to be getting rejected by TL + SAR. Potential for bearish englufing. Daily just broke SAR but is finding support from bullish L MA. ETHBTC: Potential weekly Golden Cross upcoming. Pullback to 33 day MA could represent could entry. LTCUSD: Waiting for close > daily cloud saved me. Treating inside the cloud as a not trade zone can work very well. Now it appears to be finding support from the TL and trying to create another higher low. XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below. XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross. EURUSD: (leaning bullish) L MA and LL MA squeezing with price between on weekly and the LL MA appears to be making bullish reversal. Seeing a potential A&E bottom. Bollinger Band in tightest squeeze since 2014 and a 24% move followed that one. USDHUF: Just an 18 year symmetrical triangle. USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above bullish 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 9 (1.5167 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Last night was pool league and we got our asses whooped! Worst ever in my 5 years on the team. Life has taught me that when it rains, expect it to pour. Trading isn't going well? Well then how about a flat tire and an ass whooping in pool?! I think that yesterday rustled something deep down in my soul because I woke up less than six hours after going to sleep, around six in the am. I had a lot to do so I embraced the early wake up. Went out to a nice breakfast, got the nail in my tire fixed, and then went to the gym. Too low on energy to exercise after getting little sleep and drinking too much, so I went straight to the steam room. Then I took a short nap, hit the charts for a couple hours, went out to my favorite restaurant for dinner and then got a 60 minute massage. The hot springs are closed on Wednesday’s so that was a great replacement to my daily hot springs meditation session. Broke = Always trying too hard and never doing Woke = Never trying too hard and always doing If you never seem to have the time to attend to your mind / body / soul then that is your fault; it is not due to outside circumstances. Taking care of your well being should be a priority and there is always enough time for your priorities. My results so far for this challenge should end up highlighting a very, very important part of my approach: Lose small so that you can win big. Each ~0.1 BTC loss represents an opportunity to win 1 BTC+. 5 - 10 losses can be remedied with 1 solid win. As long as I continue to manage risk properly and learn from my mistakes then I know that the profits will eventually take care of themselves. My last challenge saw me lose more than 50% of my original starting roll before going on to return +1,000% in less than six months. I have decided that losing less than that to start this challenge would be an objective improvement and validate the progress that I believe I’ve made over the past ~6 months. Open Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0369 BTC Realised PnL: -0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.06 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. *1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.057 BTC Realized PnL: -0.068 BTC Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.2439 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge. Closed Positions Long: USDHUF *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position *1/8/19 SCALE OUT: Have been waiting for price to move in my favor so that I can decrease exposure due to mistake I made when entering. *1/9/19 STOPPED OUT Price: $282.66 Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 | Max calculated risk = 0.1632 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.96 lots ($96,000) Realized PnL: -0.1546 BTC ROI: -0.61% Short: EURUSD *1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position *1/9/19 STOPPED OUT Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Realized PnL: -0.1098 BTC ROI: -1.74% Open Orders *1/9/19 AMENDED: Stop Market to long 1.645 XBTH19 @ $4,037. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Tightened stop due to below yesterday’s close and that allowed me to increase the potential exposure and still risk the same. *1/9/19 CANCELLED Stop Market to long ETHUSD @ $160.20 because Consensio is starting to turn bearish. Stop Market to short XAUUSD @ $1,274.89. Reason for entry is that would create a lower low and break down parabolic advance. Stop Market to buy XRPUSD @ $0.528. Reason for entry is Bollinger Band super squeeze on weekly and preference for longs due to r:r + coming of a major area of support + Consensio turning bullish on daily with a Golden Cross. Watchtower XRPUSD: In a Bollinger Band super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1 BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Very interested to see how the market reacts to the Constantinople Hard Fork. I think it will be bearish so I am very hesitant about this signal. ETHBTC: Potential weekly Golden Cross upcoming. Pullback to 33 day MA could represent could entry. LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I prefer to wait for a close above the daily cloud. XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below. XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross. USDCAD: Approaching bullish 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross. EURUSD: Consensio turned fully bullish but price is approaching a retest of the 200 MA which is in a strong bear trend. USDHUF: Consensio turned fully bearish but price is approaching a retest of the 200 MA which is in a strong bull trend. USDJPY: Attempting to reverse bullish 200 MA with incoming death cross. Weekly is also on the verge of a reversal which indicates that we could be of the precipice of a big trend. Will be looking for large position once symmetrical triangle breaks down with weekly close. USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above bullish 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.
KRAKEN:XRPUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 8 (1.682 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Today was another very productive day. I spent about an hour talking with someone from Tyler Jenks hyperwave Telegram group, of which I am also a member, about the underlying fundamentals going on in Turkey that could be leading to the massive hyperwave the Lira is experiencing. He seemed convinced that it is all due to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline and after our discussion I am strongly inclined to agree. “In 2012 an analyst cited by Ansa Mediterranean suggested that Qatar's involvement in the Syrian Civil War was based in part on its desire to build a pipeline to Turkey through Syria: The discovery in 2009 of a new gas field near Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Syria opened new possibilities to bypass the Saudi Barrier and to secure a new source of income.” (1) The Lira broke out of phase 1 in 2013 and according to Tyler Jenks this signals a major economic shift (when a hyperwave follows). From my understanding Turkey was allied with Russia for their energy needs and in 2012 they went all in on a pipeline that would help them become more self-sustaining and less reliant on Russia. The United States and European Union were likely all to willing to help in order to cut into Russia’s economy and worldwide influence. Turkey housed Syrian refugees and made political alignments with the EU and United States that likely alienated them from Russia. That was okay though because in exchange for housing Syrian refugees they expected to become a member of the EU. “The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry” Now it seems like the EU is reneging on their end of the deal, for one reason or another. Turkey is threatening to kick out the Syrian refugees and it seems like the Turks could find themselves without any allies, without a pipeline and with refugees that they likley cannot afford to support for much longer. Meanwhile their currency is experiencing hyperinflation and it appears that it will only get worse. Now I have 15 minutes until pool league starts and hopefully that will leed to some lighter conversation! Open Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0369 BTC Realised PnL: -0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.131 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.057 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49. Long: USDHUF *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position *1/8/19 SCALE OUT: Have been waiting for price to move in my favor so that I can decrease exposure due to mistake I made when entering. Price: $282.66 Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 | Max calculated risk = 0.1632 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.042 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.039 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0866 BTC Notes: Made mistake of entering 0.8 lots ($80,000) instead of 0.08 lots ($8,000) and have been waiting / hoping for price to move in my favor so that I could remedy that mistake. Go a bounce today that allowed me to re evaluate my risk. By scaling out of 75% of the position I have limited my risk to 7.5% of my bankroll for this challenge and that is much more acceptable. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.2226 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge. Short: EURUSD *1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Margin: 0.063 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.066 BTC Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC Notes: Consensio is telling me to fully scale out. However we are currently at horizontal and trend resistance. Therefore I set a stop loss order slightly above resistance. That is only 0.3% away from my current price and the difference between exiting now and then would be nominal. However the difference of being able to hold onto my position and not capitalize on a big loss, in the event resistance holds, is very significant. Therefore I much prefer the risk:reward of a market stop loss at 1.1501 instead of exiting now at 1.1475. Open Orders Stop Market to long 0.82288 XBTH19 @ $4,037. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Also like how strong support is holding after the last pump. Stop Market to long ETHUSD @ $160.20. Reason for entry is Consensio being fully bullish and $160 being boundary line for c&h + ascending triangle Stop Market to short XAUUSD @ $1,274.89. Reason for entry is that would create a lower low and break down parabolic advance. Watchtower BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r. Currently have stop order set to long at $160.2. *1/8/19: Price re entering cloud after kumo breakthrough + Kumo Twist. Watching for support at $125. LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I prefer to wait for a close above the daily cloud. XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below. XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weely chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross. USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry. EURUSD: Formed h&s and then whipsawed everyone who tried to trade it. Now it appears to be forming a bear flag below major resistance. It is also support above the 200 week MA and trying to reverse that 5 year bear trend. Sources: en.wikipedia.org
Long
by Sawcruhteez
4
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 7 (1.737 BTC) Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I have spent most of my afternoon reviewing my biggest trades from the last couple months to analyze my mistakes and looks for areas to improve. This is something that I am very good about doing when experiencing sub par results and something that I need to be more consistent about when I am running hot. When I get myself into a number of trades that quickly move against me then it that can cause feeling of stress / anxiety. It can be easy to second guess your decision making process and if a losing streak occurs for long enough it can cause you to question your entire trading approach. The way that I like to combat those feelings is through carefully analyzing trades and seeing if there are common mistakes that I continue to repeat. To do this one must focus exclusively on the process and disregard the results. Being results oriented does not help when reviewing past trades. I don’t care if it ended up making money or losing, I want to focus on my decision making process and risk management to determine if a trade is worthy of taking on again. After going through the process I will usually find something that is a clear mistake that will have significant impact on my results moving forward if I am able to make the necessary adjustments. That will generally make me feel very excited / motivated. Losing money on one or two trades is more than okay if it teaches me lessons that will improve my results over the next 100+ trades. After going through the process today I must say that I am feeling very excited about the lessons that presented themselves. I have two new Sticky Notes taped to my desk that should make a big difference moving forward. “Start with weekly chart. Use primarily stop orders. Monitor futures curve + spread.” Have been getting whipsawed more than I would like. I believe I can minimize that by always starting with the weekly chart. Some of the worst whipsaws occured when the weekly chart was clearly indicating to stay away / wait for further confirmation. A number of my losses / unrealized losses could have been avoided by using stop orders to enter. I have strongly preferred to use stop orders in the past but that is not what Consensio calls for. Therefore I was entering all positions will market orders within 30 minutes of the daily close. Now I am going to try and marry the two approaches, entering with primarily stop orders within 30 minutes of the daily close. This helps to ensure that market is moving in my favor before I actually get entered. This can also help avoid whipsaw by keeping me out of sideways markets. Ugly Old Goat published another great article today. In it he discusses backwardation and how he uses an increasing spread as a signal to increase exposure. I am going to start paying more attention to contango vs backwardation by noting the percentage or dollar amount that separates each contract. Am closely monitoring this spread right now. If BTC fails to support > $3,900 and the futures curve re enters Contango then I will be exiting all longs and looking to enter short. If BTC fails to support > $3,900, the Backwardation remains and the spread increases then I will be considering adding to my long. If spread remains roughly the same then I will maintain the same exposure. Adding would only be allowable because Consensio is signaling full entry and I only have a small position with a breakeven stop. medium.com “Pre Entry Checklist: Market, Order Type, Exposure, Leverage” I made way too many errors entering orders before doing something about it. Now I have a pre entry checklist that I go through to ensure that I am entering the right amount, with the right order in the right market. I am sure that this won’t alleviate 100% of the mistakes but I do believe it should have a very significant impact. Open Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0266 BTC Realised PnL: +0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.131 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.064 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49. Long: USDHUF *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position Price: $282.66 Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.63 lots ($63,000) Margin: 0.1657 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.1668 BTC Realized PnL: -0.031745 BTC Notes: I would really like to hold this position through the 200 MA due to the bullish trend, however I can’t afford to assume that much risk. Seeing an SOW from the lower high on 1/2 and am worried that support is on the verge of breaking down. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.153 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge. Short: EURUSD *1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Margin: 0.063 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.081 BTC Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC Notes: Consensio is telling me to fully scale out. However we are currently at horizontal and trend resistance. Therefore I set a stop loss order slightly above resistance. That is only 0.3% away from my current price and the difference between exiting now and then would be nominal. However the difference of being able to hold onto my position and not capitalize on a big loss, in the event resistance holds, is very significant. Therefore I much prefer the risk:reward of a market stop loss at 1.1501 instead of exiting now at 1.1475. Open Orders Stop Market to long 0.82288 XBTUSD @ $4,178. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Also like how strong support is holding after the last pump. Watchtower BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r. Currently have stop order set to long at $160.2. ETHBTC: Weekly Descending triangle that found support from prior ATH’s. Expecting huge volatility once it breaks. Passing on entries until a daily candle closes above or below. LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I would prefer to wait for close > cloud so that I can judge my risk properly. XAUUSD: Price back above trendline and appears to be turning it back into support. However it is also getting dangerously close to breaking down the parabolic advance. It it does then an 80% decline would be expected which would indicate a return to $1,200. The RSI is pulling back from overbought territory. Watch for a bear div. USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
2
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 6 (1.737 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. Please be advised that I trade on high leverage and am comfortable with the risks. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge It's been another long day today. I'm not drinking tonight either and at this moment I would really enjoy a cold one. This certainly isn't how I wanted to start this challenge but it's way too early to get worried. The big positions I have are short SPX500 and long USDTRY. Those look like they are in bad shape but I still have big hopes for a turn around in the next week. If one of those positions goes in my favor then it should make up for all the losses that I've taken so far. I think this week is very important for anyone who is trying something new this year. I don't think most people who make New Year's resolutions make it past the first week or two and that is usually because it doesn't feel like the results are matching the effort. Good thing I know that anyone who has made it this far in BTC has far more resilience than that. Through experience we know that by remaining resolute, consistent and disciplined we will achieve our goals. Open Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 ADJUSTED STOP: Stop moved to breakeven Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0266 BTC Realised PnL: +0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.176 BTC Notes: P < S MA is a signal from Consensio to scale out 5%. However this is a Hyperwave and that supersedes Consensio in regards to exiting. Hyperwave waits for a weekly close below the phase line and exits fully. Consensio is used for entering Hyperwaves because Hyperwave doesn’t have objective entry guidelines (as far as I know). Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.05578 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49. Long: USDHUF *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out Price: $282.66 Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.63 lots ($63,000) Margin: 0.1657 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0983 BTC Realized PnL: -0.031745 BTC Notes: Intended to add 0.08 lots on 1/4/19 and instead added 0.8 lots. Big mistake that could end up costing me huge. Have set market stop loss at $279.33 to ensure that it doesn’t get away from me too much. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’sl (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.153 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Botched this trade due to miscalculating the projected risk (see Worst Dressed List below). Short: EURUSD *1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Margin: 0.063 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0355 BTC Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC Notes: Adjusted projected risk and set a market stop loss at 1.15010. If that gets triggered then I will lose approximately 0.09 BTC. That is about twice as much as I want to risk based on the Consensio guidelines and that is because I did not do a good job of projecting risk yesterday. This position is an early front runner for January’s Worst Dressed List. Closed Positions Long: XRPM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 CLOSE OUT: P < S MA < flat L MA < bearish M MA Enter: 0.00009702 Exit: 0.00009177 & 0.00009228 Exposure: 5,385 Ripple (0.522 BTC) Realized PnL: -0.0302 BTC Notes: Even though Consensio signaled an entry I should have waiting for breakout of ascending triangle / c&h and should have been ready with a stop entry. However since risk was properly managed and I stuck to the guidelines I feel good about this trade. Watchtower ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r. ETHBTC: Weekly Descending triangle that found support from prior ATH’s. Expecting huge volatility once it breaks. Passing on entries until a daily candle closes above or below. XAUUSD: Price back above trendline and appears to be turning it back into support. However it is also getting dangerously close to breaking down the parabolic advance. It it does then an 80% decline would be expected which would indicate a return to $1,200. The RSI is pulling back from overbought territory. Watch for a bear div. USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry. Best and Worst Dressed Trades from 1/1/19 through 1/6/19 Worst Dressed SPX500 Short The trade that I am least pleased about is my S&P 500 short. The primary reason for my dismay is the expected risk that I used. I used horizontal resistance at $2,520 to determine my expected risk and thus my leverage and exposure. I knew for sure that I would want to hold onto this position through $2,600 due to the neckline from the h&s as well as the very bearish 33 MA. I should tend to be even more conservative then that and would like if I used $2,650 to calculate my expected risk. The reason I didn’t use the correct number to calculate my risk was primarily. The tighter the expected risk I go with the more leverage and exposure it allows me. I am very confident that the S&P has entered a bear market and I am expected a big move to the downside over the next few months. Therefore I am inclined to max out my exposure on this trade. I am used to trading with strict stop losses and that is the biggest difference for me with Consensio. There will definitely be a learning curve. That miscalculation has put me in a very bad spot. The unrealized profit on this trade is currently -0.153 BTC and I will not be getting any more signals from Conensio to exit as long as we are below the bearish L MA. If the price does rally to $2,650 before I am able to fully scale out then I would be looking at a ~0.5 BTC loss on this trade. Absolutely unacceptable to risk ~25% of my Challenge bankroll on one position. It should be nearer a fifth or a tenth of that at risk. There should be a lot of resistance at $2,600 and I will be watching closely for that to hold. If it does then this could quickly turn into a very profitable position and alleviate a lot of the anxiety that it is causing me. USDHUF Long This was more of an honest mistake that I will not beat myself too much over. I go through dozens of calculations per day to determine how to manage my positions / cash. A mistake is bound to happen. Unfortunately this mistake is a scary one, exposing $80,000 instead of $8,000 that should have been. If the Hungarian Forint moved against me on Friday (like most of the USD longs did) then it would have put me into a world of hurt and would have cost me more than 10% of my bankroll. Luckily that didn’t happen and I am able to start scaling out, due to Consensio, today. Since this was not done out of greed I am not as worried about it. Nevertheless I will do my best to be more careful next time. Best Dressed ZAR (didn’t overexpose), BTC (was patient, stuck with the game plan, didn’t overexpose) USDZAR Long This is a trade that has had me drooling over the past few weeks. If US equities enter bear market then the USD should rally. I am bearish the stock market and bullish the USD. When bullish the USD I like to long it against the weakest currencies that I can find, TRY, ZAR, MXN, instead of the more common EUR, JPY GBP pairs. The South African Rand formed a very nice cup and handle throughout 2018 and finally brokethrough the bear trendline on August. It then proceeded to consolidate in a bull flag type of pattern above the trendline and cup and handle. Furthermore the 200 MA is in a very bullish posture. With all of those factors combined I was / am about as bullish as can be on USDZAR. The price recently spent a few weeks above the flag pattern and it would have been very easy for me to get greedy and overexpose myself like I did with the SPX500 short. Eventhough this trade has moved against me significantly that is okay because my risk is properly managed. It isn’t a great feeling when the first up on my best dressed list is a big loser but that is okay because I am sticking to the process and learning from my mistakes. BTC Long If I am not mistaken this is my only position that is currently in the green and therefore I felt obliged to include it on this list. There were a number of reasons why I prefered to look for shorts on BTC (see Daily Update from last few days). Mainly due to the built up resistance from $4,000 - $4,200, the thick Ichimoku Cloud, as well as most people seeing the i h&s / c&h and my lack of belief in patterns that most recognize. Nevertheless I stuck to Consensio and entered the long due to the L MA turning slightly bullish, the golden cross, the bullish cross with the S & M MA. This is a great example of why it is extremely important to stick to a system and not let personal feelings / emotions get in the way. When positions move against you it is important not to take it personally and when they go in your favor it is important to control feelings of euphoria / ego. Knowing that the system you are trading is what got you in those positions can make all of the difference in the world.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 3 (1.98132 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. Please be advised that I trade on high leverage and am comfortable with the risks. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I woke up excited to see how my positions were developing and was dismayed to an unrealized PnL of ~0.25 BTC. I tried not to think much about it as I went about my daily routine but found that a little more difficult having just started this challenge. It's been another long / stressful day but that is okay because I love this stuff! Not to mention I have an ice cold Pabst Blue Ribbon, just ate a delicious dinner and am looking forward to smoking a Cuban cigar after finishing up with my daily posts! I really want to succeed in this and I need to be very careful about getting attached emotionally. I will write today off as first day jitters and will hope to stay engaged without staying attached. There were a couple closes that came down to the last minute and I made a big mistake on one of them. USD:HUF has the long term MA rolling down with the price pulling back. However the S MA is making a bullish crossover with the M MA and that signals 15% scale in. I am taking the long entries despite the L MA rolling down due to being bullish on the USD overall. I made a mistake with my math and added 0.8 lots ($80,000) instead of 0.08 lots ($8,000). Something didn't feel right but I felt pressed to get my orders in and didn't double check. Wanting to risk in the neighborhood of 0.02 BTC and now risking closer to 0.2 BTC. That left me with the option to exit immediately and capitalize on a 0.045 BTC loss or set a market stop and let it ride with hopes to trim as soon as I get into profit. I went with the latter and I am really hoping it doesn’t bite me in the butt. I was also really hoping to see USDTRY close closer to the top of the candle. Now I will be watching very close for support to hold strong. I am taking large positions on TRY due to the nature of the setup (potentially huge phase 3 of hyperwave). Long: XBTM19 *SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%* Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): 6.34% Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0266 BTC Realised PnL: +0.001 BTC Long: XRPM19 *SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%* Price: 0.00009702 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support + 33 MA): 6.37% Leverage: 10X Exposure: 5,385 Ripple (0.522 BTC) Margin: 0.0537 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0215 BTC Realized PnL: -0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.076 BTC Notes: Do not like today’s close. Really wanted to see close above $5.55. Long: USDZAR *SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%* Price: $14.48 Projected risk (Parabolic SAR): 2.41% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.11 lots ($11,000) Margin: 0.0289 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0395 BTC Realized PnL: -0.003 BTC Notes: Last couple weeks have been very frustrating trading ZAR. I was fully expecting a strong fally to follow the close on the 24th which confirmed the c&h and brokethrough the descending channel. Coming up on major support from L MA and SAR. Hopefully we can rally from here. Long: USDHUF *ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added* Price: $282.66 Projected Risk (Parabolic SAR): 1.80% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.96 lots ($96,000) Margin: 0.2526 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0755 BTC Notes: Intended to add 0.08 lots and instead added 0.8 lots. Big mistake that could end up costing me huge. Have set market stop loss at $279.33 to ensure that it doesn’t get away from me too much. Short: SPX500 *ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added* Price: $2,475.22 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,526): 2.05% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.18 lots ($44.172) Margin: 0.104 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.1 BTC Notes: Want to be fully entered once / if price breaks down prior swing low ($2,320) Short: EURUSD *SCALE OUT 25% due to close > Long MA* Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Margin: 0.063 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0355 BTC Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC Notes: Adjusted projected risk and set a market stop loss at 1.15010. If that gets triggered then I will lose approximately 0.09 BTC. That is about twice as much as I want to risk based on the Consensio guidelines and that is because I did not do a good job of projecting risk yesterday. This position is an early front runner for January’s Worst Dressed List. Watchtower ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r. ETHBTC: Weekly Descending triangle that found support from prior ATH’s. Expecting huge volatility once it breaks. Passing on entries until a daily candle closes above or below. XAUUSD: Didn’t find resistance from the TL which was very surprising. It continues it’s parabolic advance which does not appear to be sustainable for much longer unless there is a serious change happening under our feet.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
2
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 2 (2 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. Please be advised that I trade on high leverage and am comfortable with the risks. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Phew, today was a very long day of work. Felt like I was red lining from the moment I woke up until now! That’s okay though because I love this stuff... not to mention I've had a few ice cold Montucky Cold Snack's and recently ate a delicious dinner. Usually it takes me weeks to find the entries that were staring me in the face today. It can be frustrating when good entries are hard to find and it can be kind of intimidating / distracting when signals / alerts are going off left and right. This challenge is either going to get started with a bang or I am going to dig myself into a deep hole with the positions opened today. Only time will tell! Either way I am feeling very good and I am very excited about the volatility that appears to be starting / continuing, especially in the traditional markets. Open Positions Long: XBTM19 Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): 6.34% Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,737 Margin: 0.1 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0032 BTC Realised PnL: +0.0002 BTC Notes: Longed future with the latest expiration date due to the backwardation. I could sell spot to hedge but that isn’t how I roll. Long: XRPM19 Price: 0.00009702 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support + 33 MA): 6.37% Leverage: 10X Exposure: 5,668 Ripple Margin: 0.054 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0053 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0013 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.076 BTC Long: USDZAR Price: $14.48 Projected risk (Parabolic SAR): 2.41% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.12 lots ($12,000) Margin: 0.03289 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.008 BTC Long: USDHUF Price: $284.46 Projected Risk (Parabolic SAR): 1.80% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.12 lots ($12,000) Margin: 0.03131 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.003 BTC Short: SPX500 Price: $2,478.30 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,526): 1.93% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($39,600) Margin: 0.104 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.00786 BTC Short: EURUSD Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (expecting 33 MA to become resistance): 0.6% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.32 lots ($32,000) Margin: 0.084 BTC Unrealized PnL: Notes: Do not like the EURUSD projected risk that I used and thus the exposure that I have. At a minimum I should have gone more than halfway above the 50% mark of today’s marubozu, which is also above all the MA’s and horizontal resistance. If this goes against me it could end up costing me a lot more than I want / expected. Watchtower ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Also waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r. ETHBTC: Weekly Descending triangle that found support from prior ATH’s. Expecting huge volatility once it breaks. Passing on entries until a daily candle closes above or below. XAUUSD: Watching for resistance from trendline leading to a breakdown of the parabolic advance.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
4
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 1 (2 BTC)“Maybe this is a game that can be beat.” -Knish in the movie Rounders I learned how to trade by watching others make decisions in real time. The countless hours of studying theory / different indicators only went so far. As soon as I was ready to implement a strategy I felt like a deer in the headlights. What helped me more than anything else was watching established traders wrestle with the intricacies that I found so confusing - in real time . Being a Monday morning quarterback is a cakewalk by comparison. It’s always been very easy for me to look at a chart in hindsight and point to what should have been done and why. However, being able to do that in real time is where the boys become men. Being able to do that in real time while having money on the line is where men become pros. In this vein I have always done my best to be as thorough with my thought processes as possible while analysing the Bitcoin chart on a daily basis. I have also done my best to be fully transparent with my positions and decision making. Now I have decided to take it to the next level by starting the 2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge! I intend to return 1,000% through trading on margin over the next six months (or less). The reason that I believe that is realistic is because I have done it before and I have done it exclusively trading crypto in the 2018 bear market (March to August). My motivation for making this challenge public is rather straightforward: First of all I know that I would not have ever become a profitable trader without getting the luxury of watching others trade in real time. Furthermore, I know that many got completely rekt throughout this bear market and some may be feeling very discouraged at this point. This challenge is intended to be proof-of-work, not only of my abilities but of Tyler Jenks’ Consensio and of technical analysis as a whole. If I can implement an objective strategy and return 1,000% in less than 6 months then you can do it too! I share my entire trading strategy and process (completely for free) so there really is nothing stopping you other than yourself. The strategy and process are very objective and therefore very repeatable. Very little discretion is required once one understands Consensio (will take much longer than you expect). In my experience one of the main factors that holds back new traders is swinging for the fences with every trade. Trying to find that one position that is going to lead to life changing money. That is a loser mentality and it is impossible to consistently win with that thought process. Focus on batting average, do not focus on hitting home runs. If you are able to patiently grind it out on your leather ass, à la Knish in Rounders, then this might be a game you can beat! If you are like myself then you are probably thinking something along the lines of: “this sounds way too good to be true.” If that is your conclusion then you are mostly right. I do not intend to share this information free of charge after the challenge is complete. I intend for this to be a jumping off point for a private group and / or website. I am giving this all away to gain a following. Once I do then I will be moving my operation elsewhere and looking for opportunities to capitalize. So if you are reading this and the challenge is not finished then you are in luck! Take full advantage of this opportunity and commit to learning how to consistently beat every market whether it be bull, bear, flat, parabolic crypto, stocks, commodities or forex! Starting today I have a 2 BTC bankroll and I am not in any positions. I will make a daily post, or as close to it as I possibly can, to share the results of every single trade in real time. The Bitcoin Daily Update will remain and the Trading Challenge will be little more than a ledger of my positions and results.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
9
My $1k to $100k Challenge: Trade #66 INSHello all and thanks for stopping by and following my personal challenge. I am attempting to turn $1000 into $100,000 by day trading altcoins. I started my challenge on July 14th with a bankroll of 0.16 Bitcoin that was valued at $1000 at the time. You can follow and see all my trades in my profile. The stats below are not updated with the last 2 trades yet. After 65 completed trades: Wins: 31 Loss: 30 Balance: 0.1866 B USD: $ 1190 *Some trades may be pending and not yet included in my stats There are too many trades to list. All my trades and stats for this challenge can be found in the link on my profile if you want to follow. CAUTION: This challenge represents a small portion of my overall portfolio. To maximize the potential of reaching my 100k challenge goal quickly with just 1k, I am using most of my challenge bankroll per trade trying to build up my bankroll for the challenge. If you are following me, I do not recommend this strategy, but instead you should limit your trades to max 2-4% of your portfolio per trade. Please trade smart. Alright, here we go with Day 88 trade #65 I invested 0.10 B into INS. I bought 1336.89 @ 748 satoshi My Sell targets are: T1: 786 5% potential profit T2: 823 10% potential profit T3: 861 15% potential profit I will sell 50% at target 1. 25% at target 2 and 3. If target 1 is hit, I will move my SL up to my buy in price. If target 2 is hit, I will move my SL up to T1. SL: 730 -2.5% INS has a platform release and testnet launch before the end of the year, could be a good long term hold. In case you are wondering why my buy price sometimes doesn't match the current price on the chart when I make a new post, this is because I post my coin selection to my Discord group first and then make a new trade idea here which takes about 30 minutes to complete this all. I am 100% transparent. I show screenshots of my buy price and amount on my Discord group. This has been a fun experiment and I enjoy sharing my journey. If you agree, click the agree button. Your comments are always welcome. Thanks for stopping by and have a great day!
ILong
by redking75
8
My $1k to $100k Challenge: Day 88 - Trade #65 SUBHello all and thanks for stopping by and following my personal challenge. I am attempting to turn $1000 into $100,000 by day trading altcoins. I started my challenge on July 14th with a bankroll of 0.16 Bitcoin that was valued at $1000 at the time. You can follow and see all my trades in my profile. The stats below are not updated with the last 2 trades yet. After 87 days and 61 completed trades: Wins: 31 Loss: 30 Balance: 0.1939 B USD: $ 1279 *Some trades may be pending and not yet included in my stats There are too many trades to list. All my trades and stats for this challenge can be found in the link on my profile if you want to follow. CAUTION: This challenge represents a small portion of my overall portfolio. To maximize the potential of reaching my 100k challenge goal quickly with just 1k, I am using most of my challenge bankroll per trade trying to build up my bankroll for the challenge. If you are following me, I do not recommend this strategy, but instead you should limit your trades to max 2-4% of your portfolio per trade. Please trade smart. Alright, here we go with Day 88 trade #65 I invested 0.10 B into SUB. I bought 5464 @ 1830 satoshi My Sell targets are: T1: 1912 5% potential profit T2: 2008 10% potential profit T3: 2094 15% potential profit I will sell 50% at target 1. 25% at target 2 and 3. If target 1 is hit, I will move my SL up to my buy in price. If target 2 is hit, I will move my SL up to T1. SL: 1785 -2.5% SUB price was pushed down from October 1-8th with huge sell walls. You can see the reversal confirmed on the 8th with huge volume on the 14:00 6 hr candle. Next leg up looks to be inevitable. In case you are wondering why my buy price sometimes doesn't match the current price on the chart when I make a new post, this is because I post my coin selection to my Discord group first and then make a new trade idea here which takes about 30 minutes to complete this all. I am 100% transparent. I show screenshots of my buy price and amount on my Discord group. This has been a fun experiment and I enjoy sharing my journey. If you agree, click the agree button. Your comments are always welcome. Thanks for stopping by and have a great day!
SLong
by redking75
5