BTC/USD No clear signal todayLooking at the BTCUSD chart, there ae several ways to count the waves but all (save one, in a world ending scenario) points towards a major up trend with a Super Cycle wave 3 that could potentially reach $2000 or higher.
Mean while, on shorter-term view, a primary wave 5 is coming to an end, or have ended. The five waves should make up cycle wave 1 at around $870
Since the intermediate wave 2 in next degree primary wave 5 is a flat, by rule of alternation the intermediate wave 4 should be zig zag correction this may or may not have already happened, the only way to know is to study the current situation.
From this perspective, an intermediate wave 4 is forming, with A and B in place, (1) the fibonacci target suggests a C at around $630. If the target is touched and rebound then the wave will be confirmed, (2) if the target is broken through and price went lower than $623 then we could expect a deep zig zag 4 which could reach as far as $539 and lastly (3) if price does not come down any further than $665 then it might mean that intermediate wave 4 have already ended on the 26th of June and a smaller minor wave 1 and 2 has formed then we'll be in a minor wave 3 from now on.
And what if intermediate wave 4 is already over then what are we seeing? Well, the intermediate 3 could've been a 5 (thought not likely as the Fibonacci target will not be met) Then we could be looking at a intermediate wave A, B and will eventually followed by a deep C at around $537
All in all, over the short term period (yes, a few weeks for me is a very short term.) I see four probable possibility, with three resulting in a bearish movement 1 in the opposite direction.
But should I short? two out of the four main possibilities suggests a small bear move to form the end of intermediate wave 4 which is a short travel from the current price meaning low reward at a relatively high risk. If, however, price breaks through $623 then we could be looking at a longer target but the risk will also be much higher.
In the end I decided to do nothing today and wait for the patterns to play out a little while longer and if you agree you might as well do the same.
