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Chamath

Strong support area provides a good R/ROpendoor $OPEN has delivered better than expected results in the past 2 QE. The fundamentals are strong and this past sell-off was due to the broad market sell-off. At $13.50-$13.75 range we have a strong support area that should hold. If so the minimum rise should be the resistance area of the range-bound rectangle at around $18.50. Entering a BUY position at the current price would provide 2.5+ R/R which is pretty good. If we can get a small dip down to $14.5 then the R/R rises to 4.44 as shown on the chart. Other notable technicals we can see are: - the price should retrace back to 200SMA around $18-$18.5 area - the retracement would be less than 50% Fibo - the price is really over-sold and a counter-trend leg to the upside is expected Not financial advice, DYODD
NASDAQ:OPENLong
by IboProtrader
SPCE (1D) Longterm Target - Wait for DIP Hi Traders, Hopefully nobody HOLD SPCE Stock right now and you all took profit at last top ? My expectation is the stock was too much pumped / Hyped by positive news on test flights. Seems like Major Stockholders - Richard Branson and Chamath were selling huge % of stocks. We can expect continuous drop for next few weeks. Wait for moment when you will not hear about company anymore / or there will be only bad news (investigation / more selling from Insiders). This could lead to 1:1 extension of corrective waves A:C. Historic LOW could be good price target to watch. If its going to be supported by RSI and MACD COnvergce at leats at 1D chart. I will notify you about LONG Setup. ;) Also take deep look into Fundamentals. This company and Space flightscould be good investment long term.
NYSE:SPCEShort
by LongevityContrarian
2
QE2 results a catalyst to higher pricesMP has been doing well in the past weeks while the small-cap stocks market notably SPACs were beaten down to disappointing prices. Now that there is less than a week to the QE2 results the price is at a pivotal level. There are resistance levels around $39 and $41, which can be broken if $MP reports impressive results as they have done it after their SPAC merger in 2020. Chamath Palihapitiya was the PIPE investor of this stock and it seems it is one of his best so far. The other ones such as $OPEN $CLOV are not doing well. Even, $SOFI did not have a good performance as many of its holders expected. A market rotation to small/medium cap stocks can send many of these stocks to the sky again, but that is a big question for right now as the mega-cap stocks are the safe haven for the big dogs.
NYSE:MPLong
by IboProtrader
2+2=5This is my 888 post on the TradingView platform. 13 years ago, I was a 4th-grade Medical student in Shiraz, Iran, when I started trading stocks. Like many of you, I had never read a single book about trading when I started this. The result was a catastrophic -27% loss in the first 2 months. I had no choice other than to quit or find a way to correct my mistakes! I stopped trading and went to bookstores. I asked for books related to stock trading and bought whatever I found. Technical analysis, Fundamental analysis, and psychology books related to trading. I finished the books as fast as I could. By the end of the first week, when I finished the first book, I learned the biggest loss occurs when you "buy the right stock at the wrong time". Reading more books convinced me trading couldn't be successful without a scientific approach. In the past 12 years, I just did technical analysis for companies and assets with solid fundamentals. The result was acceptable, but not extraordinary. 13 years of trading and analysis taught me a very important lesson, risk management is the most important part of investment and trading! Ignoring this reality will almost always lead to a catastrophic result. What happened in March 2021, to Bill Hwang and the banks provided the leverage for him is a clear example of mismanagement of risk. In the past few years, bubbles and their characteristics became my favorite topic in trading. I studied bubbles and tried to find prospective modeling to find the latest stage of any bubble. In the past 6 months, I showed what I'm capable of by detecting EV makers' bubbles in February 2021, and Bitcoin in April 2021. All my followers know when I published an emergency alarm about the Total cryptocurrency market crash, it lost more than 1.1 trillion dollars in 4 days. In the past few weeks, few subjects have caught my eye, Ark Invest, Elon Musk, Bill Hwang, Chamath Palihapitiya, and Wall Street Bets. I have published many posts about them, criticize them for their disruptive behaviors in the financial markets. In one of my posts, I brought up the hypothesis that EV makers, SPACs, Cryptocurrency, and Thematic investment bubbles could be related and caused by the same groups. Now I would like to explain a scientific approach to these phenomenons and evaluate the shreds of evidence based on a scientific approach. Hypothesis: A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. What are Prospective models? Prospective models use a trick to compute future scenarios for an indeterminate system: First, several exogenous parameters, assumptions, and model drivers are defined, and then these are fed into a dynamic model of socioeconomic metabolism that is deterministic relative to the exogenous parameters. Wall Street Bets phenomenon: In the past 2 weeks, I started evaluating the behavior of meme stocks and Wall Street Bets to find the best model to predict their behavior in the future. In one case (OCGN), as soon as I wrote about it as a future pump, it jumped 11% in 42 minutes! I tried different models, and I was shocked by the accuracy of the calculations behind these price manipulations. 10 Million Rebellions or a very precise complex Algorithm Wall Street Bets on Wikipedia: r/wallstreetbets, also known as WallStreetBets or WSB, is a subreddit where participants discuss stock and options trading. It has become notable for its colorful and profane jargon, aggressive trading strategies, and for playing a major role in the GameStop short squeeze that caused losses for some U.S. firms and short sellers in a few days in early 2021. The subreddit, describing itself through the tagline "Like 4chan found a Bloomberg terminal," is known for its aggressive trading strategies, which primarily revolve around highly speculative, leveraged options trading. Members of the subreddit are often young retail traders and investors who ignore fundamental investment practices and risk management techniques. The growing popularity of no-commission brokers and mobile online trading has potentially contributed to the growth of such trading trends. Members of the communities often see high-risk day trading as an opportunity to quickly improve their financial conditions and obtain additional income. Some of the members tend to use borrowed capital, like student loans, to bet on certain "meme stocks" that show popularity within the community. The subreddit is also known for its profane and juvenile nature, with members often referring to themselves as "autists", "retards", "degenerates", and "apes". Users also frequently use slang such as "stonks" for stocks; "tendies" for gains or profits; "gay bears" for those who expect a stock to decline, for stock shorters, or as a general insult; "DD" for analysis of potential trades (from "due diligence"); "bagholder" for one whose position has severely dropped in value; "diamond hands" for holding stocks adamantly; and "paper hands" for selling at the first sign of loss. By 2020, Rogozinski was subsequently removed as a moderator. My approach to the WSB phenomenon: Q1: Is it possible WSB has no moderator or leader team? My answer to this question is No. This level of accuracy in the calculation couldn't be the result of a 10 million group without any moderator. It is more probable it is done by a very strong algorithm that injects money at the right time and also dumps it perfectly. Hypothesis Number 1: There is an Algorithm behind WSB Q2: Who is behind this movement? Previously I thought one of the above-mentioned people or all of them as a group could be behind this. At this moment, I think none of them can run such a complex operation. Ark Invest can not behind this, all their major ETFs have negative performance in 2021. Elon Musk is obsessed with playing gods' role in the cryptocurrency market and Tesla stock has performed negatively in 2021. Bill Hwang could be the perfect match. He is notorious for using too much leverage in high-risk trades and he is banned from opening a hedge fund by Hong Kong and US regulatory due to insider trades in 2012-2014. Moreover, WSB operations need tons of money and he already lost +20 billion dollars in March 201. Cathie Wood (Net worth US$250 million, October 2020), and Chamath Palihapitiya ($1.2 billion fortune following SPAC mergers with Opendoor, Virgin Galactic, and Clover Health, Apr 6, 2021) also couldn't be the case because of limited resources to make these movements, Although they are masters in manipulating crowds through social media to invest in overvalued assets. Q3: Who is benefiting from WSB movements? The answer to this question is not easy and needs a long explanation. I believe 10 million WSB members could not be the winners. Statistically, a short minority of them could be winners while the majority lose money, like all other pyramid schemes. Is there any similar phenomenon in the past tatt we can compare WSB with that? In reality, I could not found any but there is a game with lots of similarities. According to Forbes: Pentagon Documents Reveal The U.S. Has Planned For A Bitcoin Rebellion U.S. Department of Defense has wargames scenarios involving a Generation Z rebellion that uses bitcoin to undermine and evade "the establishment." In the Pentagon war game, young people born between the mid-1990s and early 2010s use cyberattacks to steal money and convert it to bitcoin, documents published by investigative news site The Intercept revealed. Called the 2018 Joint Land, Air, and Sea Strategic Special Program (JLASS), the war game is set in 2025 and is "intended to reflect a plausible depiction of major trends and influences in the world regions." The group, called Zbellion, encourages cyberattacks against organizations that support "the establishment," funneling stolen cash into bitcoin to make "small, below the threshold donations" to "worthy recipients" and Zbellion members. The program, which also reportedly wargames scenarios involving Islamist militants and anti-capitalist extremists, was conducted by students and faculty from the U.S. military’s war colleges, the training ground for prospective generals and admirals. Conclusion: I believe those who made the game are benefitted the most from WSB movements. WSB could be a perfect example of a controlled scientific experiment. WSB generates a lot of information about the patterns of behaviors of the potential future rebels. Any establishment has the chance of survival only if it could predict its future threads, study them, and makes itself ready to face them before they happen. Having experienced the misuse of social media power, in the case of Cambridge Analytica and Mobs attack on the heart of US democracy, the establishment will make sure it is ready for the future. While many think the US power is because of its powerful military, I believe The US Dollar plays a more important role and any challenger should be ready to face firebacks. The cryptocurrency market tried to challenge the US dollar a received a 1.4 trillion dollar punch in the face! It is ridiculous to think this phenomenon happened due to a tweet..! In the 17th century, in the Meditations on First Philosophy, in which the Existence of God and the Immortality of the Soul are Demonstrated (1641), René Descartes said that the standard of truth is self-evidence of clear and distinct ideas. Despite the logician Descartes' understanding of "self-evident truth", the philosopher Descartes considered that the self-evident truth of "two plus two equals four" might not exist beyond the human mind; that there might not exist a correspondence between abstract ideas and concrete reality. Moshkelgosha All right reserved (I want to write a longer version as a screenplay) Examples of Golden ratio in the so called meme stocks: NYSE:GME NYSE:AMC References: en.wikipedia.org www.forbes.com theintercept.com en.wikipedia.org The market front runner industry (EV makers)seems exhausted ..! History tends to repeats itself..! Alarming signs in Bitcoin I said Cryptocurrency Market Crash is coming 82 hours ago..! WallStreetBets and ARK invest using the same PUMP??? Another Example of market Manipulation..! Algorithms + Money to manipulate the Market Who did provide the seed money for Ark's first 4 ETFs??? Social media trading bubble example..!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Moshkelgosha
12
CLOV and the Fork IIAlgo chart from previous analysis. I am using a Median Line pattern and the Center Line is the "ideal first" target zone. Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by locatellicharts
1
Clover Health Continues To Track The Broader Market Very CloselySince the market started selling-off late February due to disturbance in the bond market, the movements of $CLOV has since been mirroring the direction of the overall market relatively tightly. With the closing of the market earlier today after a considerably sideway and mixed trading day, S&P 500 rose by 0.60%, NASDAQ fell by 0.04%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.46%. Similarly, $CLOV also had a relatively mixed trading day, showing green for the first half of the trading session, and later closing slightly red on the second half. These movements can be attributed to the general market condition as well, where during the first half of the trading session, the release of bullish CPI data edged the market higher, while a relatively average and within expectations $38 billion 10-year notes auction brought the action back down to trade relatively sideway. I expect $CLOV to continue tracking the overall direction of the market closely, at least for tomorrow, where we await for the result of a $24 billion sale of 30-year bond that can potentially move the market significantly in either direction, should anything unexpected occur. Regardless, it is good to note that on a technical perspective, $CLOV is approaching some key trading area that we need to take note of. We are currently resting just below the dynamic resistance formed by the bottom of the previous bearish channel that were trading in before this bond-induced market correction. While we may have already rejected this area once (likely due to the broader market movement as mentioned above), if we are able to break back into the bearish channel, our next target would be the next Fibonacci resistance and the top of the aforementioned bearish channel at around $9.92. However, if we fail to break back into it, we could be looking at a re-test of $7.78 or even $6.67. As such, tomorrow's trading session will likely be a very important one as it will give us an indication of where we are headed short-term. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by AntrePoint
Clover Health Rallies Despite An Early Sell-off Into A $6.31 LowThe movement of $CLOV continues to mirror the condition of the overall market. Today, the tech-led sell-off took a pause, with S&P 500 rising by 1.95% and NASDAQ Composite rising by 1.55%. Similarly, Clover Health ended higher by 7.54%, closing above the previous day's close. Going into next week, I expect $CLOV performance to continue reflecting the overall market condition. Nevertheless, these are some notable resistance and support area that you should take note next week, with key areas highlighted in Bold: Psychological resistance: $8.00 , $8.50 , $9.00 Psychological support: $7.50, $7.00, $6.50 , $6.00 Fibonacci resistance: $9.92 Fibonacci support: $7.78, $6.67 , $5.07 Dynamic resistance: Bottom of the previous bearish channel that we were trading in before this market correction ( ~$8.50 ) Dynamic support: Top of the very tight bearish channel that we just broke out of (~$7.10) Once this correction is over, I expect $CLOV to emerge as one of the winners. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by AntrePoint
6
$CLOV Finding The BottomThe bearish channel has broken to the downside and we are now in an unchartered territory. Within this unchartered territory, I expect every $0.50 to be a new support (i.e. $8.50, $8.00, $7.50, $7.00, and so on). As of the time that I am writing this post, we have broken the $8.50 support and found a $8.03 low. It will be difficult to predict where we will find a bottom, but what I can tell you is that $CLOV is severely undervalued at this price. It was undervalued at $10, it is undervalued at $8.00, and it will still be undervalued if it dips below $8.00. $CLOV recent earnings, albeit slower than expected, has proved that it is capable of growth. This will be a winner further down the road. However, if you are in this for a quick buck, $CLOV is not for you. But if you are an investor, do your fullest DD, strengthen your resolves, and buckle your seatbelts, because you are in for a rollercoaster ride until the negative sentiment surrounding $CLOV settles down. Regardless, $CLOV will be a winner for long-term investors. Chamath Palihapitiya once said in a CNBC interview that Clover Health will be their next 10x in 10 years investment, and I truly believe $CLOV is capable of it. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by AntrePoint
Possible IPOE Entry 19.20$-18$IPOE looking for a possible retracement in March up to 24.70$ (28%+ Upside) with strong resistance at 21$. IPOE is currently sitting above the 50 day SMA line, with the MACD looking to roll over green, and the RSI is oversold. Price action might be heavily variable due to IPOE & Sofi merging this month, negative sentiment in the SPAC market right now, and the possible ripple effect from Clover Health's SEC investigation. This is not financial advice, I am not advocating the buying or selling of IPOE stock.
ILong
by kediguy
CLOV Retracement, Massively Oversold but Needs PRCLOV has not received much love these past few weeks after the short report from Hindenburg came out, but I believe that the short report does not hold much substance as well as the fact that CLOV had posted phenomenal earnings. CLOV stock had dropped about 12% after reporting great earnings but weak guidance for 2021. CLOV is also being investigated by the DOJ due to the short report which has created a lot of uncertainty for the stock. But all of these variables do not discredit the fact that CLOV has been massively beaten down along with having great earnings. I see CLOV most likely trading sideways until the DOJ investigation is over. Any type of good PR for CLOV will send the stock skyrocketing with immense upside, but if the DOJ investigation materializes into anything, CLOV's stock price might be sent down into the 5s. Key support for CLOV is 9$ and then 8.50$. My prediction for CLOV is it having a short-term spike up to 9.70$ then bottoming out in the low 9s. This is not financial advice, I am not advocating the buying or selling of CLOV stock.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by kediguy
$CLOV Earnings OutlookFrom 2019 to 2020, $CLOV posted a total revenue growth from $462.3M to $672.9M, net premium revenue growth from $456.9M to $665.7M, decrease in net loss from -$363.7M to -$91.6M, and a decrease in adjusted EBITDA loss from -$175.5M to -$74.4M, among others. $CLOV also saw a 36.3% increase in membership and a 43.2% year-over-year increase in lives under Clover Assistant management to 58,056 membership and over 32,400 lives respectively. For full year 2021 guidance, $CLOV stated a total revenue expectation of $820M to $850M, net loss expectation of -$210M to -$170M, adjusted EBITDA loss expectation of -$190M to -$150M, loss per share of -$0.52 to -$0.42. Furthermore, they are also expecting a 17% to 21% growth in Medicare Advantage membership to 68,000 to 70,000 membership compared to year end 2020's 58,056. Based on the above full year 2020 financial results and full year 2021 guidance reported by Clover Health, I believe it puts us somewhere in the middle of our bear case and base case as said according to our last $CLOV Bear Base Bull outlook, which you can re-visit by looking at the related idea below. In my opinion, despite being off-target, the financial and membership growth that they have posted from 2019 to 2020 has demonstrated their ability to deliver growth, proven the scalability of their business model, and reaffirmed Chamath Palihapitiya statement of $CLOV having a predictable growth model. However, I believe they have shot themselves in their foot with the full year 2021 guidance. Based on the figures they have posted, it tells me that they are expecting a slowdown in growth compared to what they have experienced from 2019 to 2020. This will not be viewed kindly by investors and Wall Street. Going forward, I expect $CLOV to continue trading within the bearish channel, within the range of $8.50 to $10.50. Unless further positive catalyst appears, I do not see $CLOV breaking above the bearish channel yet. Nevertheless, in an environment where many SPAC and companies are trading at a massive speculative values, I see $CLOV being valued realistically at the moment and trading at a realistic price. Once given enough time to play out the growth that $CLOV is currently building, it will be a long-term winner. TLDR: Short-term: Underperform with a trading range of $8.50 to $10.50 unless more positive catalyst appears, Mid/Long-term: Easily >2x from current price. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:CLOVLong
by AntrePoint
7