U.S. Dollar IndexHello everyone,
A quick look at the DXY index.
I had fun drawing a Fibonacci retracement, we can see that the levels are well respected.
It's up to you to agree, but the graph is there.
Make your own opinion, before placing an order.
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Change
Airbnb (ABNB) | Breakout, Confirmed With July Close!Hi,
Again, buy the strength, and this time - Airbnb (ABNB)
Started in 2008, Airbnb is the world's largest online alternative accommodation travel agency, also offering booking services for boutique hotels and experiences. Airbnb's platform offered 6.7 million active accommodation listings as of March 31, 2023. Listings from the company's over 4 million hosts are spread over almost every country in the world. In the fourth quarter of 2022, 47% of revenue was from the North American region.
Airbnb has managed to push above strong areas which is confirmed by July close. A monthly close is the best confirmation on that occasion and currently, the price of ABNB has already started to retest the breakout area.
Basically, $125 to $145 was the area that played an important role in the previous price action - it has worked as a support level, and after the break below it has acted as a resistance level. In the short history of date, we can say that this area is the key zone for Airbnb and the price is finally above it which allows calling that technically it would be a good place to buy.
The monthly close was also above the mid-round number of $150 which is a minor win but we will take it and definitely adds a bit of strength to the retest area.
* Considering technical analysis then the optimal buying zone should stay between $125 to $142
* Target updates going to the chat room!
Good luck!
Awaiting doge breakout of channelDoge is in a declining parallel channel. Awaiting breakout of the channel, and clearing the moving averages will setup a long to 0.96, then 0.108 and 0.146 resistance levels.
The rsi is also supportive of such a move with it currently trending upwards and not in an overbought position.
The MACD is also beginning to trend upwards with the MACD line crossing over and signalling a upward trend.
The rate of change ROC is also trending upwards but a note of caution: a pullback in the roc and then the breakout would result in a stronger indicator signal.
Volume is also starting to trend upwards over the past week compared to the preceding period of 27 Feb to 08 Mar, this signalling a move is impending which will have market support (and is more likely to form a trend as opposed to just a temporary spoke or bull trap).
İf taking a long position, depending on risk appetite, putting in a filter of 3 days from the breakout to avoid a bull trap might be advisable.
Alternatively, rejection of the upper boundary of the channel and/or moving averages will setup a downward mice to 0.69 then 0.67 and then to the bottom of the channel.
Best approach is to await a decisive action and enter then with SLs based on chart structure.
REAL-CANDLE OSCILLATOR AKA PA Osc.This indicator show Candles with true change values and exact wick/body proportion but as a zero centered oscillator.
When a series of Candles appears, the values accumulates until the series end, showing the swing amplitude.
Starting from the indicator as it is, there are many possibilities to make use of the way the data are displayed.
Bitcoin SV fractal is clear! (Apple)What is up Trading-View! Welcome to a very key and very hidden BitcoinSV fractal.
IF you want to change your life forever PAY ATTENTION to this fractal.
Fractals are extremely powerful, Technically speaking both Elliott Waves, and Market Cycles only occur because of the fractal psychology inherent in human behavior.
Correctly understand fractals and you understand how to be a great investor.
Stay profitable.
AirPods To Gain Amazing Feature UpdateApple consistently improves the features in its suite of fitness monitoring. It adds new elements, like the recent Time to Run, for instance. But a newly revealed patent indicates it has plans to change things. I’m not sure I like it.
The patent means it’s not going to be as easy to cheat when you’re working out. I can remember a visit to Apple’s secret research labs for Fitness+ and being told that a new yoga workout was being added to Apple Watch. It meant, I was told, that it would be much more accurate than the current version.
IBM's Sustainability Accelerator ProgramLatinX have high participation in weather-exposed industries, such as construction and agriculture, which are especially vulnerable to extreme temperatures. With that same two °C temperature increase due to global warming, LatinX individuals are 43% more likely to currently live in areas with the highest projected decrease in labor hours due to extreme temperatures.
Globally, disasters related to weather, climate or water hazard caused 2 million deaths and US$ 3.64 trillion in losses between the 1970s and 2019. Research published in 2021 in the Journal Nature Climate Change used machine learning to analyze and map more than 100,000 studies of events that could be linked to global warming. Researchers paired the analysis with a well-established data set of temperature and precipitation shifts caused by fossil fuel use and other sources of carbon emissions. Aside from the critical finding that despite existing pledges, the planet is on track to heat up about 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, the researchers identified an immense gap in studies. For example, fewer than 10,000 studies looked at climate change's effect on Africa, and about half as many focused on South America. By contrast, roughly 30,000 published papers examined climate impacts in North America.
Differentials Dont't LieBack about 15 days ago we had a complete change on the daily duration of the MACD, the RSI and the Change Momentum and the whole derivative of the price line chart went from negative growth to positive growth illustrated here on the 1 hr duration. I think the 5-6 week cycle people have been talking about is over and there is a new macro cycle at play here that will be more frequent and less volatile (in terms of crypto). It'll start behaving like an actual finite asset rather than a VC IPO sell off event. Lets what and see over the next few days at the price line approaches the dash vertical blue line which is a resistance and support line intersection from the 1 hour MACD analysis I did a little bit before.
40 Years of TNX and SPX and Their Inverse CorrelationFor the last 40 years, I (we) have invested in a never-ending Bull Market in stocks.
During this time:
Stay the Course and Buy the Dips worked.
But as Ray Dalio said recently: THE PERIOD OF EASY MONEY IS OVER!
The new paradigm will either be Zero or Rising Rates, neither of which will be kind to long term investors.
The BIG MONEY has already begun to or completed exiting stocks. That started around January 1st.
Be very careful what you do now!
What did I learn from 2021 in Trading, & what can I improve on ?Hello traders:
Welcome to 2022 in trading. I am very happy to start off the year with a positive attitude and get ready for the year.
This year will be my 9th year in trading, so certainly a journey thus far.
What I usually will do is to look at trades that I have taken in the whole last year, to find areas to improve.
What can I do better, and what can I change/modify to my trading plan that will help me to become a better, consistent, sustainable trader.
I highly suggest everyone to review their 2021 trading journals, find mistakes that you made, and work on them.
Revisit your trading plan to see what areas can be changed and modified. They can be entry, SL/TP, management and much more.
Below are a few things that I personally find that I can improve more on:
Trade Management:
-Specifically, whether to take profit always at 3:1 RR, or hold onto the trade for longer
-Pros and cons and no right or wrong when it comes to this part.
-Sometimes holding a trade longer term may see price reverse and lose profits
-Sometimes taking profit too early will see trade continue to its desire direction
# of Trades Taken:
-Last year was aiming for about 15 trades per month last year
-The more trades we take, the more potential “Mediocre” trades we enter, those can eat up our good trades’ profit
-Can argue and reduce the # of trades to even less
-Instead of 1-2 same currency pairs allowed, cut down to just 1. Unless I can move it to BE
Understand and Accept the Market can Change/Evolve:
-Market is ever changing and evolving with no pre-determine factors. It can be a variety of factors that is out of our control as a trader
-Key is to always stay in “sync” with the market and its behavior.
-Never “blame” the market if your trading hits a draw down or doesn't “work out” from before.
-Understand as traders we need to adapt to any type of situations to remain consistent and sustainable in the long run
-Find solutions to work around it.
Thank you all
Treat trading like a business or you might not succeed:
3rd OF DECEMBER CHANGE - MICROSTRATEGY - MSTR - DAILYAn overall view of MicroStrategy company buying the BTC deeps and having his curve being more more correlated to the Bitcoin evolution.
We can see that overall , they were some FOMO in the first part the year 2021. But the price in finding support on an ascending probable trend marked by the green line.
The market rebonds on it every time that the Bitcoin went down. The 3rd of December have seen the market breaking the uptrend green line for the first time.
There is a probable horizontal very strong support which is in red. Next week will possibly be a major week for the MicroStrategy price evolution as it might evolve under the red horizontal super strong support. OR, do a strong pullback on it to try to find its normal uptrend.
Beware of volumes which are probably not that indicative. We have seen in the pass super strong volumes for not much price movement.
Not financial advice please do your own search.
MARK 9:23let us keep the train moving!! this weeks NFP is going to change my life your life and every traders life!!! 😡 i do not care how many accounts you blew or if your equity is below $5 all it takes is mustard seed faith. and remember WHAT YOU HOPE FOR SHAPES WHAT YOU LIVE FOR!
DOT zone of indecision DOT after recent crash shows a zone of indecision. MACD gives us a point of divergence which indicates a possibility of upcoming growth. Eliott Waves Oscilator gives us a picture of smooth upward movement and trend change for that indicator. For that growth movement DOT will need to exceed main point of resistance at 16.2-16.3. When that happens, DOT will surely regain it's level at 17 cents. To prepare for this we've made this buy setup below:
Buy price: 15.560 - 15.610
TP: 17.110
SL: 14.760
GBP/USD testing strong support-level!GBP/USD re-tested a strong support-zone with possible bullish confluence 👉
Watching this level carefully as price could reverse here.
Currently the market is very slow and weak in terms of volume, especially in equities which tend to be bullish, which is basically bad for the US-Dollar as long as YIELDS stay steady.
GBPJPY Day : SELL price is in the suppyzone GBPJPY Day : SELL pinbar day candle formed. The price is in the suppyzone at 144.3, it has a chance to come down to the support at the demane zone at 140.1 .rsi oversold and the price has come close to the uptrend line.
traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
BTC - trend change? Hello my friends,
It's been a while, as you can see from the empty chart.
My final posts on BTC were just before the launch.
Now I am afraid it is time to land again.
Since what goes up must come down, I do believe BTC is about to give the bulls a tough test.
From what I see, bulls needs to keep $18725.25 range to be able to push this price higher. Failure to do so will bring the market sentiment down, and with that the price down.
Fear & Greed still high end for Greed.
VPVR shows us where price can land if used together with fibs.
Trade thirsty, my friends.
Super set of oscillators by Thomas DeMark!Dear friends!
I continue describing oscillators developed by Thomas DeMark.
In my previous articles, I have already explained such tools as
TD REI and TD POQ (look here ).
In this post I’ll continue describing technical tools developed by Thomas DeMark.
TD DeMarker I
I’d like to start with the TD DeMarker I indicator. It is similar to TD REI and aims to distinguish between trend and non-trend movements in the market, and then, having determined the trend, it searches for reversal points depending on how the indicator reacts to oversold and overbought levels.
Its calculation technique is very simple. TD DeMarker I compares the current and the previous trading day’s highs according to the following algorithm:
1. Calculate the TD DeMarker I numerator
• If the current bar’s high is higher or equal to the previous bar’s high, the difference is calculated and added to the numerator.
• If the current bar’s high is lower than the previous day’s high, then zero value is assigned to that bar. Next values of the difference between the highs for each bar are added to the numerator over a series of 13 consecutive bars.
• If the current bar’s low is equal or less than the previous price bar’s low, then the difference between the previous day’s low and the current low are the numerator.
• If the low of the current bar’s is greater, a zero value is assigned to the nominator at this bar. The next values of the difference between the lows for each bar are added to the numerator over 13 consecutive bars.
2. Calculate the denominator of TD DeMarker I equation
• You add the value in the denominator to the sum of the differences between the lows in the same period.
3. Calculate TD DeMarker I = divide the numerator by the denominator.
• As a result, we get a value that will move in the range from zero to 100 in the form of a fluctuating 13-period line. At the same time, the overbought zone will be above 60, and the oversold zone will be below 40.
Now, let’s find out how this indicator’s signals are interpreted
A buy signal should satisfy the following conditions:
1. DeMarker I must not be below 40 for more than 13 bars
2. The bar’s close at the signal level should be lower than the low of one or two bars ago
3. The bar’s close at the signal level must be lower than the previous bar’s open or close.
4. The open of the next bar following the assumed reversal bar must be less than or equal to the close of any of the two previous bars.
5. The asset must be trading higher than at least one of the two previous closes.
As an example, I’ll take the BTCUSD market situation that has recently occurred. It is clear from the above chart that the BTCUSD was in the overbought zone (above 60) from the start till the end of May. Afterwards, the price rolled down below 40 and the indicator entered the oversold zone.
Immediately after that, we look for a point where the bar features the low before price exits the oversold zone.
Finally, when the price went beyond the oversold zone on June 13, we can easily identify the low in the period when the ticker had been below 40, according to TD DeMarker I.
Now, we can analyze the continuation pattern based on the above conditions.
1. The DeMarker I indicator was below the level of 40 for not more than 13 bars - in our case it was only 5 days;
2. The bar’s close under the red arrow is lower than the previous bar’s low (blue dots are above than the red dotted line).
3. The close of the bar below the arrow is lower than the previous bar’s open and close (blue dots are far lower than the previous bar).
4. The next bar’s open following the reversal bar is equal to the previous bar’s close (there are no gaps).
5. The asset is trading higher than the previous bars’ close levels. Furthermore, when the indicator exited the overbought zone, the price had been already trading above all the previous bars’ close levels.
Therefore, one could have safely entered a buy trade at the current level when the new bar of June 14 opened (I marked it with a red cross in the chart).
As we already know, this signal reached the target and provided the opportunity to gain on the BTCUSD movement up to the high at 14 000 USD.
I should note that when a buy signal is not confirmed, that is, the five conditions above are not met, there is still a signal, but it is a sell signal. Although such a sell signal cannot be as strong, it can be a confirmation for bearish signals of other indicators.
There is a good example in the chart above. It displays bitcoin’s all-time high at 20 000 USD.
After the DeMarker I had been in the overbought zone for quite a long time, it moved into the oversold zone, and so, we start counting and see how long the price will be in this zone.
Finally, there is the following situation:
1. DeMarker I was not below the level of 40 for more than 13 bars, in this case it was 12. So, this condition is satisfied.
2. The close of the bar under the red arrow is lower than the previous bar’s low (blue dotetd line is below the red dotted line). This condition is also satisfied
3. The close of the bar under the arrow is lower than the previous bar’s open and close. This condition is also met.
4. The open of the bar following the reversal bar is equal the close of the previous bar (there are no gaps). This condition also confirms the bullish scenario.
5. The asset is trading above the previous close levels. This condition is not met.
It is clear from the above chart the bar following the oversold zone (marked with a red arrow) went down lower than the close levels of the previous two bars, and, moreover, it was trading below the close level of the two bars preceding the reversal bar.
Therefore, the last condition is not satisfied, and so, we have the reasons to assume that there is a real reversal of the bullish trend.
Now, let us study the sell signals.
The following conditions must be met:
1. A sell signal should meet the following conditions:
2. The indicator must be above level 60 for at least six bars.
3. The signal bar’s close must be above the previous bar’s open and close.
4. The open of the bar following the signal must be equal or higher than the close of any of the two previous bars.
5. The asset must be trading below one of the previous close levels.
As soon as all these conditions are satisfied, it can be interpreted as a sell signal.
TD DeMarker II
The above chart presents an example of the Bitcoin bullish trend reversal in December 2017, after which there started a long-tern bearish trend. Let us analyze this situation as a bearish signal. When the bar marked with a red cross was forming, the DeMarker I indicator leaves the overbought zone and goes below level 60. Therefore, it is the case for looking for a sell signal within the zone, where the price was above level 60 (the zone is highlighted with green in the chart).
The red arrow highlights the bar that closed higher than the highs of the previous two bars, and so, higher than the previous bar’s open and close (in the chart, it is marked by the purple dotted line on December 17 that is above the green line). The next bar, following the one with the red arrow, also meet the condition and opens above the close of the second-last bar. Finally, there is the trend reversal signal and the opportunity to take the profit on December 20 (it is the bar marked with the red cross in the chart). However, this indicator, like other technical tools, may send false signals. To filter the entry signal, it is recommended to apply TD DeMarker II as a supplementary tool.
TD DeMarker II
Unlike the TD REI and TD DeMarker I, which compare the price highs and lows with those of one bar ago, TD DeMarker II analyzes a number of price ratios to measure the pressure of buyers and sellers.
Let us study the calculation formula of the TD DeMarker II.
Calculate the numerator:
1. Calculate the difference between the current bar’s high and the previous bar’s close.
2. Add the result to the difference between the current bar’s close and its low.
3. Distract the previous value from the current bar’s high
4. Sum up all the values. If there is negative result, assign a zero value to it.
Calculate the denominator:
1. Add the difference between the current bar’s low and the previous bar’s close to the numerator.
2. Add the result to the difference between the current bar’s high and its close (this value defines the selling pressure).
The buy and sell signals of this indicator work under the same conditions as for the TD DeMarker I, so, I won’t enumerate them again. I have already many times mentioned that, if multiple buy or sell signals are at the same place, the signal becomes much stronger. As it is clear from the above chart, a buy signal sent by the TD DeMarker II (green cross) matches to the one sent by the TD DeMarker I (red cross), which in combination confirms the sell signal and enhances it.
TD Pressure
DeMark suggests that the price action is directly affected by the supply/demand ratio. As the price change is often preceded by a change in trading volume, DeMark suggests measuring the speed of changing in the trading volume along with the speed of price changes. In addition, according to DeMark, these parameters are more important for the current bar, rather than for the complete bars. In general, these values determine the buying pressure on the market, which is calculated by subtracting the current bar’s open from the its close and dividing the result by the price range of this bar.
The result is multiplied by the trading volume of the current period and is added as a progressive total to the indicator value.
Finally, we have an indicator that shows buying pressure. For example, if the bar’s open is equal to its low, and the bar’s close is equal to its high, then the trading volume will be on side of buyers, and the indicator will display a strong rise of buying pressure. And vice versa, if the bar’s open and close coincide, even a greater trading volume won’t affect the indicator, as the market will be balanced, and the bulls’ power will be roughly equal to that of bears.
The indicator’s band moves from 0 to 100%, and the overbought and oversold zones, like for the indicators, described above, are the zones above 60 and below 40 respectively. The buy and sell signals sent by this indicator are interpreted in the same way as those sent by TD DeMarker I and II. Besides, this indicator is also a confirming one, and when it coincides with other signals, it confirms the indicated direction.
You see in the above chart that the signal sent by the TD pressure (yellow cross) matches to the signals sent by the DeMarker I and the DeMarker II (red and green crosses respectively), which means that the sell signal is true.
TD Rate of change (TD ROC)
TD ROC is an integral component of TD Alignment but can also be used in isolation as an overbought/oversold indicator.
It is thought to be quite simple and is determined by dividing the close of the current price bar by the close of twelve price bars earlier.
Although it is pretty simple, this indicator is quite efficient. According to Thomas DeMark, the bears’ zone is below 97.5. Bulls zone is above 102.5. Therefore, when the indicator is in a narrow band between 97.5 and 102.5 the market is in balance.
So, this indicator helps you identify the market sentiment at any moment.
But this is not its primary advantage. You can employ this indicator in technical analysis and draw the common patterns and trend lines. The chart above shows how a triangle worked out. A strong momentum, marked with a red arrow, draws the indicator beyond the triangle, which means that the market lost balance and started moving in the bullish trend.
Next, after the triangle was broken out and the bullish trend started, we build trend lines according to the common rules; in the bullish trend, the trend is outlined along the support line (red line), in the bearish trend -along the resistance lines (green line).
It is clear from the chart above that the breakout of these lines and entering the bear zone send a sell signal (red cross) in early July. Afterwards, we build the trend line along the resistance levels sand expect until the price breaks it through and enter bullish zone. Finally, in the mid-July, there is such a buy signal, marked with green cross in the chart.
Next, there is a strong growth in the bullish trend that is marked with the red trend line. The breakout of this line sends a signal to take profit, and entering bearish zone again signals the trend weakness.
As you see from the chart above, the indicator broke through the green trendline in late July but it hasn’t entered the bullish zone, and so, there has been no buy signal so far.
Another signal that really matters when using this indicator is the signal of convergence and divergence.
These signals are rarely sent by this indicator, but they are usually quite accurate, especially in long-term timeframes.
There is a clear divergence in the above chart. When the price is growing, the indicator is declining, which signals the trend exhaustion. In early July, the price couldn’t break through the previous high, thus confirming the direction of the indicator (marked with a circle).
Finally, as I have already said, the indicator went down below the trend line, which sends a strong sell signal; however, as you know, the bearish correction didn’t work out, so, for an accurate forecast, it important to employ all the DeMark's tolls together.
TD Alignment
Just for this purpose, to combine all the tools together, the TD Alignment indicator was developed.
TD Alignment is a composite indicator that combines the following five TD oscillators to measure buying and selling pressure:
1. TD DeMarker I
2. TD DeMarker II
3. TD Pressure
4. TD Rate of Change
5. TD Range expansion Index (this indicator is described here)
Each of these indicators has its own distinct method of measuring overbought/oversold conditions. TD Alignment is based on the values of all the above indicators according to the principle, where the final result is determined of the number of indicators in an oversold condition, overbought and equilibrium.
In addition, to calculate the TD Alignment, there were defined the following overbought/oversold zones:
Overbought/Oversold
1. TD DeMarker I - 60/40
2. TD DeMarker II - 60/40
3. TD Pressure - 82/12
4. TD Rate of Change - 101/99
5. TD Range expansion Index - 40/-40
Therefore, when the TD DeMarker enters the oversold zone, 1 is added to the total result. If the indicator enters the equilibrium zone, between 60 -40, a zero value is assigned, if it is below 40, 1 is subtracted from the total value.
Based on the same principle, all the indicators are calculated, and finally, there is the TD Alignment value that is moving between -5 and +5. -5 is reached when all the indicators are in the oversold zone, and +5 is associated with the case when all the indicators are in the overbought zone.
Unfortunately, I failed to find the TD Alignment in free access, so I had to write everything on my own. I must admit there may be errors in calculations, nonetheless, it performs quite well during testing. As you see, the main benefit of this indicator is showing the cases when the market reaches the extremes of the overbought/oversold zones.
In the above chart, I highlighted these levels from +4 to +5 and from -4 to -5.
When the indicator reaches this zone, it is obvious that the price will start correction soon and so you should take a corresponding decision on either taking profit or entering a trade. In addition, the indicator shows the market sentiment currently dominating; if it is above zero, bullish sentiment is dominating, if it is below zero, the market is bearish.
Buy or sell signal here must meet the same 5 conditions, described for TD DeMarker at the beginning of the article, the only difference is that you need to count the number if bars above or below zero.
Based on my own experience, I would add one more condition, the sixth one, to be met for entering a buy or a sell trade. A buy/sell signal is confirmed when the TD Alignment indicator breaks through zero level (red dots) only provided that the indicator hit the overbought/oversold zone before.
In the above chart, I tried to illustrate that, after the indicator hits green or red zone, i.e. overbought or oversold zone, the sixth condition is satisfied. So, when the indicator breaks through or rebounds from the zero level, there is a buy or a sell signal (according to the market sentiment, I marked the entry signals with green and red arrows). A red thumb down marks the levels where the market doesn’t reach the zones indicated above, and so, the condition is not met and the buy or sell signal is false; I marked false signal with the red crosses in the chart.
However, not everything is that perfect, because this indicator is rather sensitive and so, it sends quite many false signals. That is why, I do not recommend employing this indicator alone, rather, it should be used together with other DeMark's tools so that it will be more efficient.
I will describe other useful DeMark's indicators and explain how to apply them to BTCUSD trading in my next articles.
Subscribe not to miss the continuation!
I wish you good luck and good profits!