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VIX Change in-sight: Cloud SquaredHere is the 'Ichimoku Cloud ' indicator shown for the VIX . Although this indicator offers a surplus of signals I wanted to point out a 2nd cloud that can be found between the, ' Conversion Line ' and the, ' Base Line .' * The importance of this 2nd cloud is that when price enters it's range, the (price) direction is likely to change. * Aside from that, the cloud commonality is that price being below these clouds concludes a downtrend and the price being above the clouds concludes an uptrend). *THUS (if these calculations are correct), the VIX is heading UP* GOOD LUCK!
TVC:VIXShort
by UnknownUnicorn9114666
2
ACB's Dilemma: To accumulate and rise? Or fall and delist?ACB is at a critical price point at this time. The price action is still feeling the very strong downward trend that is pointing directly to $0 by no later than May. In order to even potentially reverse this brutal downtrend, ACB must first accumulate and confirm the end of the downtrend. An accumulation channel between $1.16 and $2.75 is potentially in the midst of forming, and ACB will likely move around this price range in the coming months until some volatility and volume decides to push it either way. We will get a better confirmation that the accumulation channel has likely formed if the downward trend lines are broken to the upside, while the price holds above $1.16. (in other words, ACB has to maintain above $1.16 by the close of Friday March 20 while never having a week that closed below $1.16 until then) The weekly 20HMA indicator has the possibility of indicating the end of the Bear Market once it starts moving in a positive direction. Confirmation of the Bullish retracement is only highly likely once three criteria are met: weekly OBV closing higher than its 20MA, weekly 20HMA moving in a positive direction whilst acting as support, and ACB’s weekly price closing above the $2.75 resistance of the accumulation channel with strong volume. During retracement, ACB may retrace to its 0.618 Fib ratio of around $6.82 as the top of its retracement. Otherwise, if ACB cannot meet all three of these criteria, ACB is likely to maintain the accumulation channel between $1.16 and $2.75 for months. If ACB closes below $1.16 on the weekly, it is likely to drop further into the lower accumulation area of $0.12 to $0.60 for several months and risk being delisted from the NYSE. TLDR: ACB has to move sideways before it can move up, or else it will continue to fall. I have presented specific details above that may indicate when the selling pressure has potentially stopped and sideways movement is likely. I will try to keep updates pertaining to this idea as the market provides new information in the coming months. I would appreciate any feedback or comments regarding this idea.
A
by Cuyut1031
1
EURNZD bis short, Trend Change, Trend Line, Market ManipulationHello Traders ! Chart Analysis: As we can see on the daily time frame market has formed an overall Up Trend. We are currently at the top of the Trend Line and also there we can see a nice Supply Zone. From here I expect the price to go down. I also marked a resistance Level which we also could reach due to market manipulation. So be aware of these Fake Outs. Trade with Price Action Confirmation and wait for valid candle stick closes in order to be more sure. But this depends on your trading plan. So stick to it. As possible target I marked the Demand Zone which also at the bottom of the Trend Line. This setup would be a nice Swing Trade and of course you could scalp it. That was my Idea and I hope you did like it. Please leave a LIKE if you like my Content that I share with you. In the comment section you can tell my your view and ask questions. Thank you and we will see next time - Darius.
Short
by DariusFxTrading
4
USDJPY LONGOn higher time frames (monthly / weekly) UJ is showing a triangle pattern, with a ranging / sideways market confirmed by the 50 EMA, we have no overall long term bias in terms of trend. Moving onto smaller timeframes, on the daily we have an ascending channel with a ranging market between the S&R, Now on the 4hr we have a rejection of the support, a break of the short term down trend and what looks to be like a confirmation of trend change forming from a 4hr 50 EMA retest. Currently waiting on a rejecting from the 4hr 5o EMA and a bullish 4hr open which will give us confirmation of a trend change which will then give us room for a long position to our 4hr resistance which is the upper phase trend line on the daily ascending channel. Lower TF long bias for UJ currently, especially with current USD strength being shown across majors, this strength will more than likely provide the retest and rejection of the 50 EMA we require to enter.
Long
by CIGSFX
Walking the xyz(w)- jungles. #2 I need proof! Do you wish to see some proof too? Walk with the General through the garden of Xyz, and nail every correction ever happened to XRP under the moon... As I explained in the previous idea #1, we can observe exactly 11 waves long correction wave model. This is one of the most widely encountered correction patterns in the crypto market on higher timeframes. This I tell you based on my experience(saw lots of these complex price depressions on the real charts), and Elliot agrees too. Let's make sure that we've counted every important little fractal. Because in order to see the picture the trader's way, we gotta fist know EXACTLY, in what fractal position we're in (relative to the parent trend, parent's parent trend, e.t.c...). I've tried out lots of possible combinations, but only really the 11 waves xyz(w)xyz(w)xyz did the trick, without any hard confrontations against the Elliot's Theory. Where are we headed? What is thy proof, Witcher?! Let's walk with me along these xyz jungles... You will see! -Targets, General? -Not yet, my friend. We have to confirm this root prognosis first. Give me a couple more days, will think of something. Now I'm out of the cigarettes. See you later, then. Gotta doping myself these tense days... The pump is coming... -Bye. ---------------------------------------- Thank you very much for reading and following! I only hope that you've found this quick walk under the moon refreshing and started considering finally longing that, which rarely anyone was brave enough to long for the past 2 years! Wait for the new confirmations and the next articles on XRP in the following days! bb! Moon profits to ya'all!
Long
by orbborisson
Bears, beat it! Full picture. All scenarios.Yes, for the past few weeks we have gathered and brainstormed a lot of confusing signals. Neither the bears nor the bulls truly feel save as of this moment, as we are probably on the verge of trend changing or forming a continuous months-long flat. We can safely say, that is not a simple task to forecast the price movements in these conditions! Every newborn candle right now can either grow as trend-killer for the bears or a sophisticated killer-trap for the bulls. The market has never been so tense. While some believe that the price has finally touched the bottom at 6500, others continue to spread bear lies(we'll see, no pushing)! In the past we have experienced two massive "pumps", both rocketing bitcoin price up to 10-20K+ region. It took me some time to become able to distinctively see the wave pattern that now you can easily identify with your eyes on the above chart. We are dealing with two great short periods of capitalizing the bitcoin market, followed by two periods of depression. Well, after every pump(dump) there must come a correction of the price - that is the law. Basically, it's the only statement all traders in the world agree with =) Thanks to the days of my uninterrupted focused observation of BTCUSD charts I can now distinctively tell all the waves and their retrospective relations inside both correction structures that were built after the 1st and the 2nd Great pumps. As many of you know, market loves resembling historical data. The most simple and straightforward way of analyzing the market - looking for the patterns and wave models in the historical data that look a lot like current market situation. Then you simply collect a pool of vectors, calculate your arithmetic averages and voila! Now you can tell a specific possibility values for some pattern to occur in the future, or the probabilility of the price reaching X price. (This data is the only data we can actually get out of technical analysis). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- That was not the story I wanted to tell you, yet. Now the big guns are coming in... Here's two simple ideas: "the correction of the second pump should evolve with about the same dynamics that the correction experienced after the first investment rally evolved with, if the recapitalization happens in the same market conditions". "the complex dynamics of cryptomarket de-recapitalization is based on the economic cycles, common nature cycles, performance of the capital redistribution bottlenecks, exchange providers... While isolated, any capitalization model with the same input parameters will produce 100% equal result." And here's the big news: the second depression is about to end(has ALREADY gone through all evolution stages we observed in the first giant correction ever). For good! It is most logical to expect the new great market pump after seeing the same market picture on Jan 1 2020 as on Jan 15 2019 . I'm presenting you with the exact correction model that both great depressions strictly followed during their evolution, thus proving the bulls right for the medium/long term trading. First of all, you must remember, that these two giant corrections were formed in somewhat different market conditions, and we can not expect to see the same pattern without changes again and again and again, right? But wait 'till you chew up this data and swallow it liquid! After "cleaning the noise", I was able to identify the correction model that is building up right now(finishing, actually) and both corrections fall perfectly within the laws of this correction model. Yes, we are experiencing ABSOLUTELY the same correction pattern forming that we have already seen after the first pump! When I finally saw this c.model I had no more bearish thoughts left in my brain no more. We are going up. Bitcoin has grown, a lot of new technologies/sites/companies/people were introduced to the btc infrastructure all over the world. Is is hard to believe that bitcoin whale-shorters have now the power to seriously drop the price. Well, they tried! They have brought us down to 6.5k twice< of course if they want to -they will drop it even further but with a very high expenses level. The "all-time" 3k bottom and the same correction dynamics(compared to the previous depression), plus the good-looking fundamentals along with the obvious infrastructure growth signal us that it is not a very probable scenario in which the price drops anywhere close to the previous 3k bottom. ------------------------- xyzwxyzwxyz - 11 waves Correction Model. It is hard to distinguish these wave models, but once you do, you won't have the bearish thoughts left on BTCUSD anymore... ...for months. Why is it so hard to identify this pattern in both corrections? That is THE GOLDEN question. And I have a suggested answer... First of all let's clear something up. We can not expect the second depression period last the same amount of time. Why? Because when the traders have the previous same-situation chart layout before their eyes - they think much more faster and the complex processes of liquidity redistribution evolve faster, less time needed for the market to react to a certain change.. Just like that, the previous depression lasted 12 months, and I strictly believe that 6 months of correction evolution this time is more than enough for the BTC to become oversold and fully finish its big-cycle correction model. And to prove this point of view let's look at the charts... -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Both corrections have the exact same layout and the very much resembling 11 waves correctional architecture (the exact same, really). 2. Both corrections have a bearish triangle placed at wxyzw(purple). 3. Both corrections have a falling bullish wedge placed at their ends on the very last z waves. 4. The dimensions that both corrections follow are very much alike. 6. Both the very last x waves of these corrections end with a small but very distinctive pattern - expanding bullish wedge(purple curved line), P.S. kind of, maybe we should call it a simple xyz zigzag, as these figures seem to be heavily deformed by the bullish pressure. 7. For both "expanding bullish wedges" we can observe STRONG classic bullish divergences on RSI 14/56(class A divergences) and Stochastic(class A + class C divergences). Are you still in doubt? Then read the next part... This one is for the skeptics. ----------------------------------------- You may ask: "now, wait a minute... what about the differences?" 1. Once again - it would be not smart at all to expect the market to evolve while following the exact same c.model with exactly the same dimensions. Nevertheless, that is exactly what happened, if you look closely at each and every wave and analyze it. 2. The pen-penultimate wave "x". This wave is much deeper than it's shorter and weaker twin from the first ever pump's correction. Guess now, what did all the bears do when they have had realized that the current correction strictly follows the previous depression wave c.model? Of course they dumped the market! They knew that the masses would most probably be dropping this wave, 'cause that is exactly what has had happened before. This is obvious, right? 3. Yes, this notorious penultimate(10th) wave "y". This wave from the second depression is much higher that the same wave from the first depression? But what does it tell us? - Exactly the opposite thing(the same, really)! First of all - Secondly - during the first depression this wave got a minuscule amount of volume coming(and the previous one too). Thus the small wave height - the bulls were very protective(in the first depression), no one entered the market, the shock of the depression period kept'em afraid to invest big - there was simply NOT ENOUGH DATA on this asset's performance. This behavior weakly signals that the 6000-6500 is the bottom(Sep 7 2018, it wasn't 3k yet). And what happens when traders start to see the exact same correction pattern happen again? They will try to buy at the dips of the very last waves of this correctional model. Thus, when it has had become clear that the pattern was screaming in their face "BUY"(Oct 21 2019) al lot of traders saw it and called into requisition. Of course they tried to buy this dip and pumped the price. Maybe some big investors pumped it, while observing the very same c.model. (Please, don't mind me speculating, I may be wrong here). So we dumped harder, but then we even much more harder pumped. The masses synchronized(a lot of traders predicted those two waves. And why does why the very last wave look the same? Once again they panicked and suspended most trading, in order to be safe from a "crazy" deformed wave, that they created themselves, when the market was so predictable. (This predictability - the real power source behind the future 3rd Great Pump, as well as both previous pumps). Anyway, as for me, this abnormally dumped "x"(9th wave) and high penultimate(10th) wave "y" seem even more like a confirmation of the proposed theory. It only proves that the market should follow already well-known correction models, while influencing their evolution with this retrospective psychology link channel from the past. 4.That's it. Both corrections follow the same law, the very same(very basic, actually) xyzwxyzwxyz correctional waves model. Nothing has dramatically changed. Even counterclockwise - It is just another cycle, and we are bullish to the bones now. The current market state: The historical data: ---------------------------------- Forecast? While this may seem like a super-heavy bullish confirmation, we should not forget, that the market doesn't read out ideas and follow them nor it repeats itself, drawing the same patterns. And even more - many economic and political processes are able to change the whole retrospection, making this chart obsolete. Whatever we saw as an impulse we may see as a smaller part of the correctional flow, and vice versa. Still, I believe Bitcoin will follow its bullish trend like a 1000ton train. Yes, there will be lots of dips, and, probably, even new bottoms. But the chart can not lie - the price has discovered its median. -------------------------- Warning... (The following is IMHO and it is me thinking aloud, it may even be just my sick fantasy, so be free to discuss and criticize(am I paranoid? NO ONE TO TELL!). This is a warning about whale-marketmaker's way of thinking. They do and they WILL put some branches in your forward bicycle wheel, always! How? For example the high penultimate wave "y"(10th wave)... Yes, they may pump in the dip of the correction and the new wave would be much higher the expected height. Yes, they may even dump(that's their favorite dish for the past year). Imagine them observing all this beautiful picture. I'm sure there's a lot of whales that would benefit from dumping the price down to 6800-6900 to form the complete inverse head n shoulders. Or they may wanna test the bottom again... then don't be surprised when with the help of order books bombardment with a massive amount of sell orders some whale drops the price below 7k. The Bears are still strong and have a good position, considering that there's still no explicit trend reversal confirmation. Yes, the market looks like it's about to flip. And no, we don't really know if it will. But if you do know anything about trading, you shouldn't not call yourself a true bear or a true bull right now. Because in THESE conditions - the safer trade is not trading at all , or trading with strategies that work well in the flat conditions(trying to bounce inside the range 6900-7600), I personally try to avoid such an unstable market. ---------------------------- FORECAST. So here is a forecast based on technical analysis, careful consideration of all the factors my mind could process, my eyes could find, fundamental analysis, news, other analytics proposes and ideas... BASE Scenario A. - The price is going to surge sooner or later. The current correction model formed suggests that the whole xyzwxyzwxyz complex correction is completely finished and we are about to see the new trend formation. If this scenario plays out - we may even observe a prolonged impulse, bringing us up into the overbought zone, and a giant fractal structure binding the 2 known Great Pumps, the following depressions and the new group of impulses(yet to be formed) into a Giant Impulse, promising long-term capitalization pump. Is it true? I believe so. Time will tell. Anyway, there are other probable subscenarious: Subscenario a. - The price experiences an uplifting breakout(with almost no new bearish candles, quickly transforming into a massive impulse, lifting us up to at least 7700, with possible reaching up to 8200/10000 and even higher. Subscenario b. - We first observe a small correction(maybe a fake dump, to bring down all the bulls with their SLs) down to 6800-6900 first. Then experience the impulse I've been forecasting for many days in a row. (Tripple bottom formation or inverse head and shoulders on 1D). Subscenario c. - We may get ourselves another depression continuation and observe a 15 waves c.model being formed out of the current 11 waves correction. (Doubt that) Subscenario d. - we experience a long and boring months-long flat. Bulls and bears both burning in the frames of the narrow flat-range. Then we finally experience the IMPULSE! ------------------------------ P.S. Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. So no more 6k(av.probability). No more 3k(high.probability). And definitely no more 1k for years(I say only some global disaster is able to kill BTC now)! I'm glad to hear any feedback! The last days I was a little bit confused myself, closed some open "buy" positions, in order to protect myself from this market. So don't be surprised if you see 1 or 2 bearish ideas published by me. They are all based on days of raging research. And they are legit too(I suppose so). But this chart is the final masterpiece in the series of my publications on BTCUSD. Bitcoin shows such a text-book price action, BTCUSD is quickly(relatively fast, of course) growing with new bullish impulses formed. Now we should only wait for a clear confirmation. And go full buy-in) Sorry for the wall of words - there have been a lot of thinking going on these days... Check out my previously published ideas, if you must. They are all pieces of a single puzzle and relate to each other.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by orbborisson
$12 or $8 dollars after... for Afterpay - Double Top TBCHi All, At a price to revenue ratio of 36:1 at the time of writing, this is one hot stock! But is it really worth it? We clearly have a formation, but not confirmation, of a double top pattern for APT. We have a clear and solid rejection at the 28.50 zone and a 10% plus drop following. I don't think things are looking good for APT, not necessarily fundamentally speaking (besides the ratio), as I know a lot of people are bullish on this stock but at least from a technical analysis perspective, one has to ask are we about to witness a major trend change with APT? Now the supporting TA; Double top pattern As already mentioned, this is a yet to be confirmed pattern. The break of the middle trough between the peaks @ 20 dollars would confirm the pattern. The red arrows provide us with a possible drop range that we might expect. The larger the variance from peak to middle trough, the larger the expected trend reversal, and this is in fact supported by the underlying trend line established from April 2018, certainly a significant trend change IF confirmed. This alone of-course is not enough, and we do have additional supporting indicators below. RSI We have a bearish divergence on the RSI, with a down trend quite clear. The last pump to the second peak was not accompanied by wider market participation, and this trend seems as though it will continue. RSI would confirm at this stage that APT is currently out of steam. A cross of the trend line with accompanying price action would invalidate this indicator. MACD & Histogram MACD is showing signs of turning to negative cycle. Interestingly the strength of the recent up trend seems to be quite great albeit short and quick as Histogram clearly shows. This would support the RSI indicator reading and might suggest the last pump was really led by a few bulls, and not wider traders/investors. MACD and histogram fall in line with a double top scenario. MA's We can see the last pump pulled back our 7 day MA's over the 50 but has failed with the 20. It does not look like its going to cross especially with the drop we had following the second peak. The 7 day is largely going to indicate where we head from here. Both 20 and 50 are some what flat lining. Interestingly, the major trend reversal suggested by the double top would not only include a down break of the 18 month trend line, but also the 200 day MA. All confirmations of major trend reversal. The MA's do tell a similar story as the above indicators and fall in line with a possible double top scenario. VPVR Our volume profiles strongly support the above TA and Double top possibility. Our value zone is below the 18 dollar mark, with the final significant profile in this zone stopping around 11.37. Below this we find the next significant profiles 8.13 and below. These targets do also coincide with FIB levels as the 23.6 sits at that 11.37 dollar zone. Failure for this too hold would give us an 8 dollar possible buy zone target. Ichimoku Clouds Its looking like we are going to break again, and we can see trend change confirmed with this indicator. Summary We have a very strong case for a double top pattern with most indicators falling in line with the same scenario. A break below 20 dollars would provide us with this confirmation and I think things might get a little ugly from there. Important FIB levels also all coincide with critical pattern events, 78.6 current support, 61.8 double top resistance line, 23.6 assumed target . I think it will be a great buy opportunity, around that price technically speaking, but accompanying fundamentals should also be closely monitored with APT in the coming weeks. 36:1 price to revenue ratios are simply not sustainable, and it is not unfathomable that we see an APT stock lower than 8 dollars. SELL / STOP TARGETS Stop loss @ $20. Profit taking above highly suggested. The above is not financial or trading advice but possible mitigations if this scenario were to unfold. BUY / LONG TARGETS Target 1 @ $12 Target 2 @ $8 and below. The above are also tentative as even at these prices we still have quite a large price to revenue ratio. Technically however we could see a bounce from these point and accompanying TA at the time would have to confirm any possible trade. Confirmation Support @ $20 fails. Invalidation; New high created > $29 with a clear and strong candlestick close. Again, in the long term this stock might be a great performer, but the analysis would suggest we are due for a trend change. Thanks guys, leave a comment and let me know your thoughts, Traders-Corner *** Any trading advice provided has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the information provided you should consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should seek professional personal financial advice before making any financial or investment decisions. All investment and trade decisions, no matter how well investigated, involve risk. ***
AShort
by Traders-Corner
The price of eur/usd is moving now!The price of eur/usd is moving now! It stopped below the dynamic resistance identified by the EMA20 daily. So it did not complete the movement that we expected this week. The analysts had expected a slight decline in the US dollar against the other majors because of the FED conference, the announcement of the pay slips of the non-agricultural sector and the level of unemployment. The price is going to look for the static resistance set around 1.13 on this pair. For after the announcement of Trump on the new duties that will be imposed on China, the USD has strengthened again. We close at Break Even the bullish position that we had opened on EURUSD. Technical point of view The main trend remained unchanged. The final target is reachable within a few months among the static supports set at 1.10-1.08. There wasn't the rebound we expected, is now very likely that it will continue in this downtrend.From here (1.12) the price should start to go down and re-test the non-key static support at 1.112 within a few sessions. Once tested and broken to the downside there will be confirmation of a channeling on the part of this change projected to the downside. Here the price will bounce between the upper and lower side until it reaches the minimum of the period which will presumably be the area around 1.08. Fundamental point of view Even the fundamental scenario supports this view. The European Central Bank will continue to adopt an expansive policy, devaluing the Euro. The FED does not intend to take steps back by cutting rates and reviewing its monetary policy. Trading ideas The price of eur/usd is moving now and the possible TPs that we will set for this pair are: -the first one on the support of the 1.112.-the second on that of the 1,104.-the third on the final target at 1.08 and coinciding with 78.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. The analysis will be invalidated at the break of the resistance zone in the 1.146 area.
Long
by BFCMInvest
GBP/NZD - Change of Trend!Hello traders, After breaking the channel we can see the price made a higher high wich confirms the change of trend. We will now wait for a small correction before looking for Long Opportunities near the yellow area in the chart. As always we dont enter without confirmation and wait for bullish price action. We can enter this trade with a very good risk reward after confirmation aiming for around 400 PIPS! If you like my analysis feel free to leave a like or comment below, Rodrigo FAC
Long
by RodrigoFAC
DXY: Happy Halloween Hey guys, wishing everyone a great day. Yesterday there was halloween and we opened a short at the beginning of the week on the Dollar Currency Index. Price is dropping hard since yesterday. We are already under the bullish trend line and a big daily bearish candle indicates more down side. In 24h will be the NFP so it could happen that price moves back to the top to retest it and then totally fall down.. We are up +50 pips and excited for tomorrows news. Will keep you guys updated.
TVC:DXYShort
by darian_fx
GBPUSD: DayTrade Part Two Hey everyone. Check out the our last idea about the GBPUSD short trade for better understanding this one. Price dropped nearly to the same level where GBPUSD started its bullish run, where its holding the same level for a few hours now. Going into Asian we do not expect price to move much, but in the early morning somewhere before London or inside the session, we will be waiting for another last fake out to the downside. Looking to the left we see a wick and we are waiting for something like this in this scenario too. This is where we enter our long position with stops below the lowest level of this whole wave. Good luck.
Long
by darian_fx