*Nice Long*GBP has been recovering from short-term drop due to election loom, given the fact that it didnt break the support trend line clearly. *1.29285* would be a good long entry and TP at 1.304.
Trade Safe
Channel-reverse
High Probability LONG until top trendline, before massive SHORTBased on the current Daily chart/pattern, there is a possibility to enter a LONG until the top of the channel trendline, before a substantial SHORT to the bottom of the triangle's channel trendline.
IF the bottom trendline is broken, after consolidation and crossing the Blueberry EMA, we should be able to have confirmation of a significant Impulse wave downwards for a full bearish trend, which could confirm hard times ahead for the IHG (Intercontinental Hotels Group).
TDI seems to suggest a LONG is still valid until the overbought position is reached which should then signal a great SHORT entry at least to the bottom of the channel trendline/Blueberry EMA.
Once we reach the Blueberry EMA, price action and structure should provide more information before a decision to exit the trade or continue SHORT for an Impulse.
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DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar.
This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk.
Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out.
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DAX Channeling - Easter present?The DAX has been channeling in a 400 pip wide band for the past 2 months. To make matters interesting, the highest high ever of the DAX has already been approached, already bouncing back just 15 pips away from it!
So the question arises: will the DAX break through the channel or not?
If the DAX REMAINS in the channel (as I am hoping), then the following targets and stop-loss arise:
Target 1 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 61.80%: 12,201.5 (+107.5 pips)
Target 2 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 38.20%: 12,267.8 (+173.7 pips)
Target 3 at Fibonacci Retracement Level 0.00%: 12,375.2 (+281.1 pips)
Super Conservative Stop-Loss at Fibonacci Extension Level 138.20%: 11986.7 (-107.4 pips)
Normal Stop-Loss: 11,230.0 (-64.1 pips)
Super Conservative Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:2.6 at Target 3.
Normal Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:4.4 at Target 3.
I suspect there to be strong resistance at the highest high ever (12,390.75).
I will enter a long trade if the DAX bounces off the lower channel boundary and rises nicely.
If it continues channeling, I believe Target 1 will be met after maximum 5 full days, Target 2 after max. 9 full days and Target 3 after max. 12 full days after the bounce.
What do you think?
Further thoughts:
I like how the first border-to-border move's Fibonacci extension level of 161.80% at the beginning of the channel matches almost perfectly with the second border-to-border move's 100% level.
That same first border-to-border's move's 112.7% level matches the next top-border bounce perfectly .
EU LongCurrent environment for USD and in the bottom of a channel, it must bounce reaching 1.9 or something close to that
GBP/EUR Short at Channel ResistanceWe are approaching the top of an upward channel, this key area of resistance is a good area for a sell opportunity. This is supported by divergence, that suggests that the next peak will be lower than the last - which would fall at the top of the trend line. Before placing a trade wait until the candle closes, if the candle closes outside of the trend line the set up is invalid. Finally, this upward trend has a bias to break to the upside, so this opportunity needs to be considered thoroughly.
EUR/GBP Short Opportunity - Channel ReversalThe top of the bearish channel is a good opportunity for a short position. This type of trade gives a good risk/reward ratio, stops should be placed outside of the channel. It is key that stops still allow price to move above the trendline and not be too close to the trendline, therefore the 0.85570 zone is a nice level for this. Targets could be the bottom of the channel or at the middle of the channel where a support level is visible
