Gold: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: Gold
Pattern – Price range
Support – 2154
Resistance – 2187
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Gold daily.
What are we discussing and asking today after looking at Gold?
Could a close above resistance be the move that starts a new continuation higher?
If we see a break below support, this could be a false break and could set up a final HL.
Could buyers be out of gas as price consolidates and can't break resistance?
Good trading.
Channeltrend
Stock market peaks in July 2024, followed by an epic crash?I have made some calculations regarding potential stock market development in the S&P500 in the coming months. There is of course no guarantee that it will turn out exactly like this, but there are very interesting mathematical correlations in an optimal scenario.
Since January 2018, the price has been inside an ascending channel with a couple of hits at both the bottom and the top of the channel and is on the way up.
I have then measured the time and height from the covid low in March 2020 to the next peak in late 2021 and then made an exact similar measurement from the low in October 2022 to a possible future peak.
Then I tried to find Fibonacci levels that coincide with the tops and bottoms of the chart. It can be tricky where there is no data but there are methods to resort to. If you measure from the bottom after the financial crisis in 2009 and to the highest before the covid rebound in 2020 (3397), you see that this ends up at the 50% level in this calculation. If you instead do a Fibonacci Extension between these levels, you end up at the same potential top level in the chart (double the distance). I have chosen to leave this out of the diagram to try and keep it as clean as possible.
The really interesting thing is that all these measurements converge at exactly the same level and time. This occurs in July 2024 at ≈6121.
Historically, peaks in the market usually occur around the same time that interest rates start to fall. According to the forecasts, it currently looks like it could happen in June this year.
If all this were to occur, we can note that the rise from October 2022 will then be 75%.
Should there then be a really big stock market crash and we look at the symmetry, i.e. 75%, we see that an equally large percentage decline would take us exactly to the levels at the double peak in the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the peak before the financial crisis in 2007.
This is therefore a calculation based on an optimal scenario, and such scenarios unfortunately rarely occur. But it's worth keeping in mind in case the market takes us there anyway.
Nvidia - Volatility At The TopHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For a decent period of time, Nvidia has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation. We had the last retest of support in 2022 so the rally of +600% towards the upside was actually quite expected. Nvidia is now approaching the upper resistance of the rising channel so there is a quite high chance that we will see at least a short term bearish rejection soon.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Buy AUDJPY Bullish ChannelThe AUD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bullish channel pattern. This pattern suggests ongoing buying pressure and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) around the current price of 97.77, positioned near the channel support. This offers an entry point close to potential buying pressure.
Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the previous resistance levels within the channel, now acting as potential support zones: 98.21 and 98.44. Further upside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 97.60. This helps limit potential losses if the price breaks down and invalidates the bullish pattern.
Thank you
S&P 500 - Correction And ContinuationHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of S&P 500.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
The S&P 500 has been trading inside of a rising channel formation for a very long time. We had the last retest of the lower support level about 6 months ago which was then followed by an expected rally of +25% towards the upside. If the S&P 500 now retests the previous breakout area which I mentioned in the analysis, there is a high chance that we will see a reversal there.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
#OIL Price at profit taking placeHello everyone,
I'm thrilled to share my 101st analysis here, marking a significant milestone in my journey. While there were certainly some analyses that didn't pan out as expected, I believe the ones with better results outweighed them in total. I'd like to express my gratitude to those who supported the ideas, left comments, or liked the analyses. Your engagement motivates me to continue improving the quality of my work.
Now, let's delve into the analysis of the Oil price, as it has reached a crucial price level where profit-taking activity may occur, potentially leading the price lower.
As shown in the chart, not only has the price reached a bearish trendline that previously held it at lower levels, but we are also currently at the one-to-one price target projection of an inverted head and shoulders pattern , a level where many pattern traders would consider taking profits.
It's worth to note that as soon as the price reached this area, it encountered some bearish pressure and failed to sustain its bullish momentum.
At present, based on my strategy, I don't have any bearish signals or triggers. However, with a bit more patience, I believe a good opportunity may present itself soon.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
#EURGBP possible bearish moveAs depicted in the chart, the EURGBP pair is within a long-term bearish channel and is nearing its upper boundary, where it may face downward pressure.
Additionally, the price is currently trading at a significant resistance level that it failed to breach in its last attempt, suggesting a potential failure to break through again this time.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Sell GBPCAD Bearish ChannelThe GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This suggests ongoing selling pressure and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.7262, positioned close to the channel resistance. This offers an entry point near a potential reversal zone.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones: 1.7185 and 1.7162. Further downside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 1.7285. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you
Sell GBPJPY Bearish ChannelThe GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe displays a potential selling opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This pattern suggests ongoing selling pressure and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 188.60. This places your entry near the current price action and potentially close to a retest of the channel resistance.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones:
187.62: This represents a significant support level within the channel.
187.10: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the channel.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 189.15. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly breaks above the channel and invalidates the downtrend.
Thank you
Buy GBP/NZD Bullish ChannelThe GBP/NZD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bullish channel pattern. This pattern suggests ongoing buying pressure and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position around the current price of 2.0785, positioned close to the channel support. This offers an entry point near potential buying pressure.
Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the previous resistance levels within the channel, now acting as potential support zones: 2.0868 and 2.0906. Further upside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 2.0735. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly breaks down and invalidates the bullish pattern.
Thank you.
NZDJPY Channel - Are we going Long soon?Hi everyone,
Technical Trader here.
Awaiting confirmation on the Daily and (maybe Weekly) to see whether we can fill the Monthly candle stick wick. Price approached the yearly mark (Jan 2014) and was rejected.
Clear Channel, but could it break?
I've not got a bias on this one just yet, but I will be watching over the next few days.
Sell GBP/CAD Bearish ChannelThe GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This pattern suggests ongoing selling pressure and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.7225, positioned close to the channel resistance. This offers an entry point near a potential reversal zone.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones: 1.7164 and 1.7130.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 1.7252. This helps limit potential losses if the trend unexpectedly reverses and the price breaks back upwards.
Thank you
Nvidia - $1000 And Then DropHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting in 2018 Nvidia stock has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation. We had the last retest in August of 2018 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. Considering that Nvidia is now approaching the upper resistance of the channel, I do expect a (short term) pullback to retest previous support and then more continuation from there.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Sell NZDJPY Channel PatternThe NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to the presence of a bearish channel pattern.
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 91.65, positioned near the current price within the channel.
Target Levels: The initial bearish target lies at the 91.15 level, which represents the previous support line within the channel. Further downside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 91.85. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
Nasdaq - Now Is The TimeHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation and retested the lower support the last time in 2023. This retest was followed by an expected 65% pump. Considering that Nasdaq is now retesting resistance as mentioned in the analysis, I do expect a short term pullback to retest the next support level below current market price.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Making and using Stacked Channels on log scale for targets 🧠 💱Alright, so here I will explain the idea of stacked channels on a logarithmic scale. First thing you need to do is go to logarithmic on your chart. You might want to reset the scale just for convenience so it looks nice and neat. Then you go to the channel and look, obviously we're going to start at the bottom. Okay. Now what you want to do is you find your channel here, right? Let's say this was the first one. You can go here as well. You can go here. It's whatever. I'll just go here to the beginning See how it lines up at the top. Okay, then I'll extend it And you were asking when does the price break out of the channel so here I'll mark it so you see This was a fake out. But here we have a legit legitimate breakout, right? So If I highlight this area right here, you know, you have the breakout of the channel, out of the channel. So what I do now is, I'm going to copy this channel, clone it. Ok, CTRL-C, CTRL-V, just slide it up, match the top of the old channel to the bottom of the new one. And you have a nice target here. See how it touched and stayed roughly around here? So that's all there is to it. And look, perfect here. You see? Confirmation. Confirmation again. Confirmation again. That's how you do it.
Sell EURAUD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.6620, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones: 1.6525 and 1.6479. Further downside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 1.6660. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
BITCOIN: Channel Mode PlayIn recent market trends, Bitcoin has shown signs of a channel mode play, as depicted by the chart. Additionally, a short-term trend has formed, currently exhibiting three rebounds. These indicators serve as an initial alarm for a potential reversal of the current events. If the price breaks above $32,500 or so, it could signal a continuation of the upward trend without significant corrections.
The cryptocurrency market has been buzzing with activity, and Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, has been at the center of attention. Traders and investors are closely monitoring its price movements, searching for clues and patterns that could help them make informed decisions.
One interesting observation in the recent price action of Bitcoin is the presence of a channel mode play. This concept refers to the formation of a price channel, where the price fluctuates between two parallel trend lines. By analyzing the chart, we can observe that Bitcoin's price has been trading within such a channel, indicating a period of consolidation and potential future price movements.
Furthermore, a short-term trend has emerged within this channel, characterized by three rebounds. These rebounds suggest that buyers are stepping in at certain price levels, creating a level of support and preventing the price from falling further. This trend has held up so far, serving as a noteworthy factor to consider.
As traders, it is essential to identify potential turning points or reversals in market trends. The price level of $32,500 holds significance in this scenario. If Bitcoin manages to break above this level, it could indicate a shift in the market sentiment and a resumption of the upward trend. Such a move would signal a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, potentially paving the way for further price gains without significant corrections.
While no one can predict the future of Bitcoin's price with absolute certainty, it is important to consider these indicators as valuable tools for decision-making. As we navigate through an intriguing summer in the cryptocurrency space, it is evident that the market sentiment remains positive. Bitcoin has shown resilience and demonstrated its ability to recover from temporary setbacks in the past.
It seems increasingly likely that we will witness new record highs for Bitcoin in the near future. Whether it occurs within this year or the next remains uncertain, but the prevailing optimism among investors suggests that it is only a matter of time. The cryptocurrency market is characterized by volatility, and as such, it is essential to stay informed, monitor price movements, and adapt strategies accordingly.
In conclusion, the channel mode play and the short-term trend observed in Bitcoin's price chart provide valuable insights for traders. The $32,500 price level serves as an important threshold to watch, as a breakout could lead to further price appreciation. As we embark on an exciting journey in the crypto space, the potential for new record highs for Bitcoin looms on the horizon, and it's an exciting prospect for investors and enthusiasts alike.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, and individuals should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Previous idea:
Sell CADJPY Bearish Channel The CAD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This pattern suggests ongoing selling pressure and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming minutes or hours.
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 111.46, positioned close to the channel resistance. This offers an entry point near a potential reversal zone.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the support levels of 111.07 and 110.82, marking previous support zones within the channel.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken channel resistance line at 111.70. This helps limit potential losses if the trend unexpectedly reverses.
Thank You.
Long Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to $310Trading is slower recently with less than usual decent trade setups. But this looks like a good setup. With VRVP supporting current price with high volume and this coinciding with the bottom of a larger up-trending channel entry here is nearly as good as we can expect. Additionally, our daily RSI is in a fair range.
We do have some resistance to get through. 237 is a level of resistance along with the 100 day SMA just above that. But if those can be defeated, we're well on our way.
Target #1 - 254
Target #2 - 270
Target #3 - 288
Final Target - 311
I plan to take 25 percent off at the first target and raise my SL to break even. Thereafter, every target reached will be another quarter off of my full position and a raised SL to the preceding level.
Risk/Reward on this is a healthy 5/1 with my stop out placed at 222.
Best,
Stew