Weekend Bounce?We currently rest at our $2670 support which intersects with the bottom of our channel. Could we see a weekend bounce to $2980? I think this is a good possibility. We shall soon find out.
Happy trading!
Chart-patterns
Bitcoin UP! Out of bear channel! Now what?BIP 91 looks to be locked-in now. As hypothesized in my last post, this has given us enough boost to push our way through some MAJOR resistance points. Bitcoin's behavior here is extremely bullish! At the time of this writing, BTC is currently wrestling with resistance at $2599. Once through, it's on up to $2670 or the bottom of our bullish GREEN channel, whichever comes first. Once we get there, I am not sure how much energy the bulls will still have. If we do end up getting to the bottom of the bullish GREEN channel today, I don't think the market will be able to power through.
My analysis today is that we either tap out at $2600 or somewhere around $2670. Tomorrow is another day but I don't see us breaking back into our bullish GREEN channel today. And, if you are a day trader (which I am NOT), these are excellent areas to short back down to the 50 MA or even possibly the $2420 support.
Happy trading folks!
Bitcoin breakout to occur this weekend! BIP 91. Coil Pattern.As I analyze my chart and concur chart signs with price, time, and news, I must conclude that Bitcoin has the most probable chance to break out and UP by Sunday.
Here's my case:
1) BIP 91 lock-in. We got 80.5% this morning. See www.xbt.eu
2) Two more days until activation. This puts us at Friday. Markets move to the far East around this timeframe.
3) Symmetrical pattern (also known as Coil) forming with descending volume and a bullish spinning top Doji (so far) on the daily. Generally, when breaking out of these triangles, we follow the long-term trend.
4) We want to test support again, the upward sloping RED trendline currently below us. If done, we'd experience nice bounce momentum to push us through our overhead resistance points at around $2344 (78.6% Fib retracement), $2420 (huge past support/resistance), and our Middle Bollinger and top of our channel, wherever those end up being.
However, CAUTION is to be exercised. There is a ton of resistance overhead and a chance we could still break down through our RED trendline support and back into negative territory.
REMEMBER, we are still in our bearish channel so these predictions are really a bit premature. At the same time, I don't want the higher risk traders to miss out on good buying opportunity here. Dollar cost average yourself in. I usually start at 20%. Up or down, keep adding in.
If we break UP we may go all the way up to the GREEN trendline and test.
If we do go down we WILL go all the way back down to $1845 but probably not lower, unless something disastrous occurs news-wise.
Happy trading friends and remember that buying here is not advice. It is a high risk trade. Your best bet is actually to wait until the breakout is confirmed. You'd have to get in at a higher price but it is a much lower risk trade and direction will be confirmed.
Litecoin continues to hold $45 and probably will continue holdNot surprisingly, Litecoin (LTCUSD) is holding it's $45 support today. While it is possible that it could go lower, my suspicion is that it won't. Instead, while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to unravel until our Aug. 1 target date, I suspect Litecoin (LTCUSD) will bounce around in here between the $45 support and $50 support until our middle Bollinger Band or 20 MA comes up a bit to give us a boost. Once this happens, it may provide just enough steam to propel us back over $50 which is now currently acting as resistance. Then onto $60-$75 for Litecoin!
Happy Trading friends!
Bitcoin BTCUSD to test $2465-$2485 support levels - Get ready!As you all have probably observed from reading my last few posts, my enthusiasm for Bitcoin is waning. However, as I've noted all along, as long as we remain inside the green channel, I'll hold my longs. We are about to test some important support levels once again with BTCUSD. The first is that 50 MA which currently sits at around $2485. And then, down from there, is that lower level of my channel again at around $2465-$2470.
You can only hammer on a support so many times before it finally breaks. I'm uncomfortable down here, but true to principle I'll remain long until we fall below our bottom green trendline support.
There is also the possibility that we bounce up one more time from here. I won't get my hopes up and will begin to focus more on Litecoin analysis now.
Stay tuned and as always, happy trading friends.
Litecoin LTCUSD to test $45 support - Should bounce hereAs I stated in my last post, I may have jumped the gun a bit on my Litecoin purchase. I knew this. But because I am a swing trader, I did not want to miss out on opportunity at that $50 level which provided fairly strong support. The next support level I see is even bigger. Why? 3 reasons:
1) I have redrawn my Fib retracement from the lows on 3-30 to the high on 07-05. This now provides .236 retracement support at approx. $45.
2) The low of our 07-04 candle sits at around $45
3) The middle Bollinger Band and 20 MA should intersect the first two supports at this level.
If you have not already picked up some Litecoin, I would advise doing so at $45. You could always DCA down from there, should we go lower. I happen to believe we'll bounce at $45.
Happy trading friends.
Major Bitcoin Bounce Expected by July 4thIn the next few days, I am expecting some major price action to occur in Bitcoin. As I analyze the charts, from a purely technical perspective, I see many signs that indicate the price will shoot up. Of course, there is always a chance we could go the opposite way as well. And thus, caution should be exercised as we flirt with these lower levels. If we do break through our supports, the drop will be UGLY! Very ugly! However, as I've stated before, as long as we remain within the channel I've drawn, I remain very bullish on Bitcoin.
Here are a few of the indicators that I can see which help point to the upward direction of Bitcoin in the next few days. Let's all hope we are not being deceived by these chart indicators.
Convergence of (4) four major supports:
1) $2420 support
2) 50 MA
3) Bottom Bollinger Band
4) Bottom of channel
Additionally, we have observed a couple of weeks of healthy consolidation, contracting Bollinger Bands, and we are once again headed into oversold territory according to the RSI.
With all of these signs, I suspect that within 3-4 days, we will see price action shoot up like the 4th of July fireworks.
Happy Independence Day my American friends and as always happy trading!
Bitcoin Bounced - Now What?So, we bounced before and on the 4th as expected. But now we're up against that $2600 ceiling again and can't seem to close above it. As we continue to struggle with these upper levels, it is becoming increasingly clear that the market is not willing to do much more here before BIP 148 on August first. I've said all along that I'll remain bullish as long as we continue to remain within the green channel on my chart. However, it is looking more and more like we are going to test channel support once more, and if we do, I am not sure how much longer we can hold until breaking through.
Long story short. It's uncomfortable down here near the bottom of our channel. But it's this simple. Above the bottom channel support = hold. Below the channel support = sell.
And for me personally, I will probably sell and sit on the sidelines and observe until these forking issues all look to be resolved.
Until then, have fun trading my friends.
$2600 - Our level to beat todayOur resistance today is at $2600. Traders are advised to exercise more caution until we get through this level and the next at $2760. These will be key resistance areas moving forward. Our focus today is at $2600.
Happy trading.
Look how perfect!Check this out! After breaking through our $2420 support, I became a bit nervous. We only had one more stop before the floor fell completely out and that was at the $2330 area. Fortunately, there was plenty of support to hold us today. We had the bottom of our channel, the 50 day MA, and the bottom of the Bollinger Band all holding us up at the same area. We held today, bounced, and it now looks like we will even close this candle far above $2420. As the market hits the far east tonight, we should get even more support. With this long awaited consolidation, the crypto market has had it's chance to catch a breath. We can now continue our move onwards and upwards.
As always, happy trading friends.
$2760 - So you're telling me there is still a chance? Last night I had hoped we'd break through our overhead resistance of $2760 as the far east took over the helm. However, the show of strength that I was hoping for was nowhere to be found and Bitcoin closed the last candle in anticlimactic fashion. As I've stated in previous posts, if we are unable to break through this resistance, we are in for a few more days of sideways (and possibly downward) consolidation. I am actually a fan of more consolidation here, as it will spring-load any future moves upwards and give us much more strength.
If we do consolidate, we will end up breaking through support of the bottom of our ascending triangle. Once this happens, we may rest for a few days and either bounce around between $2599 and $2760, or, we will break through our $2599 support as well and fall back down to the $2400 area.
There is also still a chance we can hammer through our overhead resistance of $2760 today. However, this probability is not very likely.
Bitcoin to break through $2760 resistance tonightAs the markets start to wake up in the far east, I expect a push through our overhead resistance of $2760 tonight. To do so though, it is important that we also close out above our middle Bollinger Band of support , currently at $2670. If we do, it is a good sign that we will push through that tough overhead resistance of $2760 tonight. Once accomplished, the road to $3300 should be fairly quick and smooth.
