Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📉 U.S. Private Payrolls Surround Weakness
The ADP report showed a drop of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, the first decline in over two years, reflecting businesses holding back hiring amid trade uncertainty. However, layoffs remain low, signaling no acute stress yet
📊 Markets Braced for NFP Caution
Markets are wary ahead of this morning’s Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP) release—currently projected at +115,000 jobs and 4.3% unemployment—based on indications of labor-market cooling from weak ADP numbers
💵 Canadian Dollar Strengthens
The loonie jumped 0.4% as investors adjust expectations for broader central-bank dovishness, driven by the weak U.S. jobs signals and optimism over a revived U.S.–Canada trade dialogue
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, July 3:
8:30 AM ET – Non‑Farm Payrolls (June):
Forecast: +115,000; Previous: +139,000 (May). Watching for signs of sustained job-growth slowdown.
8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate:
Forecast: 4.3%, up from 4.2% in May. A rise may increase odds of rate cuts.
8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM):
Forecast: +0.3%; prior: +0.4%. Cooling wages would ease inflation pressures.
8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims:
Track week-to-week stability or worsening of labor-market conditions.
9:45 AM ET – Services PMI (June, flash):
Monitor for signs of slowing in U.S. service-sector activity.
10:00 AM ET – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (June, flash):
Forecast: 50.8. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in services.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
For informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #labor #technicalanalysis
Chart Patterns
Ethereum Breakout Unleashed: Major Upside Targets in Sight The ETH/USD 2-hour chart reveals a classic ascending triangle formation, which has now been decisively broken to the upside. After consolidating within a tightening range for several sessions, Ethereum has surged past the horizontal resistance level, supported by Ichimoku cloud structure and rising trendline support. The breakout candle is strong, indicating bullish momentum and potential for further upward movement. The breakout aligns with increasing volume and market confidence. This technical setup suggests a possible rally continuation toward higher resistance zones marked above. The structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the breakout zone with minimal retracement.
Entry: 2,570
1st Target: 2660
2nd Target: 2,850
CLSKThe stock shows upside potential (~40% to Target2) with strong support at $10-$11, but low volume and near-term volatility require caution. Optimal strategy: Enter near support levels, enforce strict stop loss, and track confirmation signals for bullish momentum.
Entry Zone: $10 - $11 (optimal buying area).
Stop Loss: $8.40 (critical level, mentioned twice).
Targets:
Target1: $14.09 - $14.31 (~17-19% upside from entry).
Target2: $15.34 - $16.19 (~40-45% upside from entry)
$ORCL Beats Earnings – Flat Base Breakout?There is a lot to like about NYSE:ORCL both on the chart and fundamentals. Not only did they beat earnings and now get an upgrade (see below), but the stock has also now formed a flat base after earnings. What that means to me is that buyers have pushed the stock up and there are not enough sellers to bring it back down.
I have an alert set at 215.01. If that triggers, I plan to open a full-sized position with a stop just under the most recent low (202.54). That is a 6% risk. Although, if it does not perform well right off the bat, I may close it on whatever day I open if it falls below the day low. All TBD.
If you like this idea, please make it your own and follow your trading plan. Remember, it is your money at risk.
Oracle rises as Stifel upgrades to 'buy'
** Stifel upgrades stock to "buy" from "hold", citing strong momentum in its Cloud business and disciplined cost management
** Increases PT to $250 from $180, implying an 18.91% upside to stock's last close
** "We believe Oracle is well positioned to accelerate total Application Cloud growth to the low teens range in FY26" - brokerage
Oracle Beat Expectations
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 4:05 PM ET
Oracle (ORCL) reported earnings of $1.69 per share on revenue of $15.90 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter ended May 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.64 per share on revenue of $15.54 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $1.66 per share. The company beat expectations by 1.81% while revenue grew 11.31% on a year-over-year basis.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH): Approaching Ideal Buy ZoneBCH is having a sell-off, which could lead us into another buying area near the EMAs. We have seen how well the EMAs have been holding the coin giving proper support to it so that's what we are looking for, for another buying opportunity which would give us a good R:R trade opportunity.
Swallow Academy
#GLMR/USDT - Buyers Are Here!#GLMR
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest.
We have a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, this support at 0.0600.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, supporting the upside.
There is a major support area in green at 0.0592, which represents a strong basis for the upside.
Don't forget a simple thing: ease and capital.
When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order.
For inquiries, please leave a comment.
We have a trend to hold above the 100 Moving Average.
Entry price: 0.0615
First target: 0.0623
Second target: 0.0634
Third target: 0.0650
Don't forget a simple thing: ease and capital.
When you reach your first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order.
For inquiries, please leave a comment.
Thank you.
GBP/USD Short Setup – Rising Wedge BreakdownGBP/USD Short Setup – Rising Wedge Breakdown
Timeframe: 2H
The pair has formed a rising wedge pattern, typically a bearish reversal signal. Price has now broken below the lower trendline, suggesting a potential downside move.
Setup Details:
Entry: ~$1.3717 (post-breakout)
Stop Loss: ~$1.3826 (above recent highs)
Target Zone: $1.3477 to $1.3407
Technical Analysis:
Rising wedge pattern breakdown confirmed
Supertrend indicator has flipped bearish
Momentum divergence visible on lower timeframes (not shown)
Fundamental Context:
GBP remains under pressure due to weak UK economic data and ongoing BoE rate cut expectations
USD strength backed by persistent inflation concerns and hawkish Fed tone
Bias: Bearish (Short-Term Swing Trade)
Look for potential retests of broken support for confirmation. Manage risk accordingly as volatility may increase ahead of upcoming macro events
GBPUSD Bounced the Block — 1.3780 in Sight.Price is reacting off a strong support zone and the 200 EMA.
This move is also based on my expectation that upcoming U.S. data will come in weaker than forecasted, which should push USD lower and support GBP strength.
Target: 1.3780 📈
Let’s see how it plays out.
AUD/JPY SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the AUD/JPY pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 93.578 level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
$MAV Setup Looks Juicy, Trend Reversal Ahead?NYSE:MAV is looking good here!
MAV is forming a falling wedge, a bullish reversal pattern, but it hasn’t broken out yet.
A breakout is expected soon.
There’s also a bullish divergence on the RSI:
Price is making lower lows, but RSI is making higher lows 👀
This is often an early sign of a trend reversal.
If the breakout happens, we could see a strong rally toward $0.081 and $0.126 in the coming weeks.
DYOR, NFA
#mavi #Altseason2025
Bitcoin Major Dip Upcoming | Next Move BEARISH ?Bitcoin experienced a sharp intraday pullback from ~$107.6K down to ~$105.8K, influenced by new U.S. Senate legislation discussions targeting crypto taxation and exchange regulation. This news injected short-term volatility and prompted a minor sell-off.
However, BTC closed June at its highest monthly level ever (~$107.1K), maintaining a strong macro uptrend. Institutional interest remains robust, with over $4.5B in inflows into BTC ETFs over the past two weeks. On-chain data shows ~98% of BTC supply is in profit, reflecting underlying strength—though short-term caution is warranted due to possible profit-taking.
📉 Technical Analysis (Chart Reference)
🔹 Key Levels:
• Resistance: $107,500 / $112,000
• Support: $105,000 / $103,000 / $100,000
🧠 Observations from the Chart:
• Resistance Zone: Price struggled to break and sustain above $107,500 despite multiple Break of Structure (BoS) attempts.
• Support Zone: Strong horizontal support is established around the $105,000 level—price is currently testing this.
• Market Structure: Multiple Change of Character (ChoCh) patterns suggest a short-term bearish trend, likely driven by macro news impact.
• Upcoming Dip: Chart annotations highlight an expected pullback into the $104K–$105K region before a potential bounce.
• Trendlines: The downward-sloping trendline indicates corrective pressure, but the broader ascending channel remains intact.
📈 Technical Outlook
• Trend: BTC is consolidating within a broad ascending structure on higher timeframes. The current dip aligns with a healthy retest.
• Momentum: 4H RSI and MACD show cooling, signaling temporary bearish momentum.
• Watch Zone: $103K–$105K is key for potential bounce. Losing $100K would invalidate short-term bullish structure.
Next Move Prediction
Short-Term (1–5 Days):
🔻 Expect continued downside/consolidation toward $103K–$105K. High chance of buyer re-entry around support.
Medium-Term (2–4 Weeks):
📈 Bullish continuation toward $112K–$115K if ETF inflows remain steady and no major regulatory shocks occur.
💼 Trading Plan
• Buy Zone: $103,000–$105,000 (scale in during dips)
• Target 1: $112,000
• Target 2: $115,000
• Stop Loss: Below $100,000 (daily close)
Despite short-term news-driven volatility, Bitcoin’s macro trend remains bullish. As long as the $100K support holds, this is likely a dip-buying opportunity. July often brings strong seasonal performance, and ETF demand may act as a major bullish catalyst. Stay alert for news and volume confirmation before committing to entries.
GJ-Wed-02/07/25 TDA-Daily support 196.371 tapped and rejectedAnalysis done directly on the chart
Follow for more, possible live trades update!
I often share my live trades in Tradingview public chat in London session, stay tuned!
Patience.
There are periods where price move smoothly
and some others less smoothly. The trader's
job is to adapting to market changing conditions.
Active in London session!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
BITCOIN STRATED FORMING BEARISH TREND STRUCTURE.BITCOIN STRATED FORMING BEARISH TREND STRUCTURE.
Market started forming lower low, which indicate bearish trend.
After a long Bullish trend, a correction is expected in market.
Market is expected to remain Bearish in upcoming trading session.
On lower side market may hit the target level of 99,000$ in upcoming trading sessions.
On higher side 12,000$ price may act as a key resistance level for the market.
Quietly Building: A Major Options Position in August AUDEye-catching activity in August AUD options with a strike at 0.67 .
The break-even point for this portfolio sits slightly higher, at 0.674 — and judging by open interest, this is the largest position in play.
Quick reminder:
A break-even level like this could act as a synthetic put building zone by adding short futures to their positions. That means profit from downside moves — with limited risk .
But here’s the catch:
This setup alone doesn’t scream “buy” or suggest strong bullish conviction toward 0.674.
However, it’s definitely worth watching — especially if price starts moving in that direction.
Also keep an eye on option unwinds or roll-overs — they often tell us more about how big players see the future path of the asset.
📈 Bottom line:
Not a clear signal yet — but definitely a pattern forming. Stay tuned.
Follow for more edge-driven breakdowns!
XAU/USD – Long off Lower Channel + Fundamental Tailwind📌 Bias: Bullish (technical + macro alignment
🔹 Trade Setup
Entry Zone - 3 245 – 3 255
Stop-Loss - 3 240
TP1 - 3 375 (Last Month High)
TP2 - 3 475 (Upper Channel)
🧠 Technical Rationale
- Price is respecting a clean ascending channel
- Confluence at entry: lower trendline + last month’s low + hidden order block
- Liquidity sweep expected below 3 245 before bullish continuation
🌍 Fundamental Tailwinds (July 2025)
🏦 1. US Dollar Collapse
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 10.8% YTD, its worst start since 1973
- Driven by:
- Trump’s erratic tariff policies and fiscal expansion
- Loss of confidence in US Treasuries as a safe haven
- Moody’s downgrade of US credit rating
“The dollar has transformed from a safe haven into a symbol of instability.” – ING strategist
🪙 2. Central Bank Gold Demand
- Global central banks continue accumulating gold to hedge against dollar devaluation
- This institutional demand underpins long-term bullish momentum
🔥 3. Geopolitical Risk Premium
- Ongoing tensions in the Middle East (Iran–Israel, Gaza) and Russia–Ukraine keep gold attractive as a safe-haven asset
- Even with temporary ceasefires, the risk premium remains embedded in price
📉 4. Fed Dovish Shift
- Fed Governor Waller signals a possible July rate cut, citing weak labor data and easing inflation
- Lower rates = weaker dollar = stronger gold
🧠 Final Thought
This setup isn’t just technically sound—it’s fundamentally explosive. You’re riding a macro wave of dollar weakness, geopolitical hedging, and central bank gold demand. If price reacts cleanly at 3 250, this could be your high-conviction entry of the month.
Pull-back Post Austin LaunchNot quite a dark cover cloud candlestick today but given how strong the Nasdaq was today and NASDAQ:TSLA slumped is a fairly pathetic price action on day 2 post Austin launch.
IMO a lot of shorts were on the sidelines until robotaxi commenced. They waited for the pop and now feel more confident in entering short since they were able to assess launch. Buy the rumor sell the news if you will...
Correcting below the pre-launch price back to the lower wedge trend line around low 300s is my target.
NFP Bears gathering their troops? or will the Bulls stampede...The past 9 days have been quite interesting for the EUR/USD which has been relentless. Price has been rising like a helium balloon let loose at the park...
Bulls have clearly been in control, not only the past 9 days but since the beginning of the year with the exception of the strong pullback in April & May only to bounce for another 700 pip run.
I am totally USD bearish across the board as I have been mentioning in my analysis videos for the past few months but like all macro moves, we always have pullbacks along the way and that is why I have been shorting the EUR/USD back from 1.1500+ - 1.1700+
I've given this a lot of room to breathe, more than usual but considering the following technical setup, I'm willing to give the Bears some leeway and potentially show me they'll come through.
•Rising Broadening pattern (Where two trendlines start close together only to divergence and expand) - This is a bearish pattern.
•Negative Divergence on the MACD, Linear Regression & the RSI.
•Price has made a run to the yearly R3 pivot level. (Rare extension)
•Last daily candle is a hanging man candlestick (Reversal candle)
•Weekly chart has the EUR/USD at the upper band of a polynomial regression channel which calculates for price extremities in the market.
There are a few more setups as well but it's too much to describe here and I'd have to show it in a video (Which I plan to do over the weekend)
With all of that said... It could all fail lol but seriously speaking... You just can't ask for a better probabilistic setup so whatever happens during NFP... happens.
Aside from the technical aspect... I know yearly R2 around 1.1600 was a hotspot for shorts because divergence was at the early stages and taking a short there wouldn't have been a bad idea but we know institutions are in play as well, so above 1.1600 could have been a huge area to run stop losses and margin calls before a potential reversal.
250 pips would be enough to run a large pool of stops and liquidation.
IF price is going to reverse here during NFP, I believe late longs and breakout/pullback traders are going to try and buy at the trendline at 1.1660ish but it wont hold and trap them on the other side of the trade.
Under that, I can see us pulling back towards 1.1200ish...
If the Bears give up and price continues to climb... the original macro target may very well be under way which was 1.2000 - 1.2200 (Based on a Monthly and 3-Month chart analysis)
As of this writing the EUR/USD is pretty much completely flat which is expected before the NFP fireworks ahead of July 4th.
We'll see what happens tomorrow morning! buckle up!
As always, Good luck and Trade Safe! See you post NFP.
$Chillguy Cup and Handle (Bullish)Hi i hope everyone is profitting in this market, today i wanted to bring up the cup and handdle spotted on chillguy with major upside that could go as high as ATH's if not higher but before you dive into what a cup and handle is on chillguy give me a like and follow if you found this content of value so others can more easily see it as well hping they gain knwledge of this as well.
Reistance
$0.11 key level for massive breakout
$0.20
The cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern used in technical analysis to identify potential buying opportunities in trading. Below is a concise explanation of the pattern and how to trade it:
**What is the Cup and Handle Pattern?**
- **Shape**: The pattern resembles a "U" shape (the cup) followed by a smaller consolidation or pullback (the handle).
- **Cup**: Represents a period of price decline followed by a recovery to near the previous high, forming a rounded bottom.
- **Handle**: A short-term consolidation or slight pullback, often sloping downward, signaling a pause before a breakout.
- **Timeframe**: Can form over weeks to months on daily or weekly charts.
**Key Characteristics**
1. **Prior Uptrend**: The pattern typically forms after a significant price increase.
2. **Cup Depth**: The cup's lowest point is usually 20-50% below the prior high, though deeper cups can occur in volatile markets.
3. **Handle Formation**: The handle should slope downward and last shorter than the cup (e.g., 1-4 weeks). It often retraces 10-33% of the cup's height.
4. **Volume**: Volume typically decreases during the cup formation and handle, with a spike during the breakout.
**How to Trade the Cup and Handle**
1. **Identify the Pattern**:
- Confirm the cup's "U" shape with a rounded bottom (not a sharp "V").
- Ensure the handle forms a tight consolidation, ideally sloping downward.
- Check for a prior uptrend to confirm the bullish continuation context.
2. **Entry Point**:
- Enter a long position when the price breaks above the handle’s resistance (the high of the cup).
- Confirm the breakout with increased volume to reduce false signals.
3. **Stop-Loss**:
- Place a stop-loss below the handle’s low or the cup’s low, depending on risk tolerance (typically 5-10% below the entry).
4. **Price Target**:
- Measure the cup’s depth (from the high to the low) and add it to the breakout point.
- Example: If the cup’s high is $100, the low is $70, and the breakout is at $100, the target is $100 + ($100 - $70) = $130.
5. **Volume Confirmation**:
- Look for a volume surge during the breakout to validate the move.
- Weak volume may indicate a false breakout.
### **Risk Management**
- **Risk-Reward Ratio**: Aim for a minimum 2:1 ratio (e.g., risk $1 to gain $2).
- **Position Sizing**: Risk no more than 1-2% of your account per trade.
- **False Breakouts**: Be cautious of breakouts without volume or in choppy markets.
**Tips for Success**
- **Timeframes**: The pattern is more reliable on longer timeframes (daily or weekly charts).
- **Market Context**: Ensure the broader market trend supports the bullish pattern.
- **Combine Indicators**: Use tools like moving averages, RSI, or MACD to confirm momentum and avoid overbought conditions.
- **Practice**: Backtest the pattern on historical data or use a demo account to refine your strategy.
**Example**
- Stock XYZ rises from $50 to $100 (uptrend), forms a cup dropping to $70 and recovering to $100, then consolidates in a handle between $95-$100.
- Breakout occurs above $100 on high volume. Enter at $101, set a stop-loss at $94 (handle low), and target $130 (cup depth of $30 added to $100).
7/3: Focus on Short Positions, Watch Support Near 3320Good morning, everyone!
Yesterday, gold tested support near 3328 but failed to break below it effectively. The price then rebounded toward the 3350 level. At today’s open, gold briefly extended to around 3365 before pulling back.
Technically:
On the daily (1D) chart, the price remains capped by the MA20, with no confirmed breakout yet.
Support levels below are relatively dense, and moving averages are increasingly converging, suggesting a breakout in either direction is approaching.
Key intraday support lies in the 3321–3316 zone.
On the 2-hour chart, we are seeing the first signs of a bearish divergence, indicating a need for technical correction. Much like Tuesday’s setup, there are two possible scenarios:
If 3342–3334 holds, the price may extend slightly higher, intensifying divergence before pulling back;
If 3337 breaks, we could see a drop toward 3320, where correction would occur through a direct decline.
From a fundamental perspective, several high-impact U.S. data releases are scheduled for the New York session, which may increase volatility and make trading more challenging.
Trading suggestion:
For most traders, the safest approach is to wait for data to be released, then look for oversold rebounds or overbought corrections following sharp market reactions.
This style requires patience and strong risk control—avoid being overly aggressive or greedy, as such behavior can easily lead to trapped positions or even liquidation.