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XAU/USD (Gold) Multi-Timeframe Analysis – March 3, 2025 a comprehensive trading strategy. ## **1. Market Structure Overview (Multi-Timeframe)** ### **M30 (30-Minute Chart)** - **Equilibrium Zone (~$2,870 - $2,875)** is being tested. - **Previous Day Low (PDL) ~$2,825 is intact**. - **Minor bullish CHoCH (Change of Character) observed**, suggesting a possible retracement. ### **H1 (1-Hour Chart)** - **Bearish Break of Structure (BOS) confirms continued downside bias**. - **Premium Zone (~$2,920 - $2,950) remains a strong resistance**. - **Retracement to equilibrium ($2,875 - $2,885) is likely before further downside**. ### **H4 (4-Hour Chart)** - **Price rejected from the previous weak low (~$2,825)**. - **Liquidity grab occurred, but market remains bearish**. - **Potential retest of previous support at $2,885 - $2,900 before continuing down**. ### **D1 (Daily Chart)** - **Strong BOS confirmed bearish sentiment**. - **Premium rejection zone ~$2,950 remains strong**. - **If price stays below $2,900, further downside to $2,800 - $2,780 is possible**. --- ## **2. Expected Scenarios & Probability** ### **Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (70% Probability)** - If price **rejects $2,880 - $2,885**, the downtrend is expected to continue. - **Target: $2,840 - $2,825**. - **Confirmation:** A bearish candlestick formation in the **$2,875 - $2,885 zone**. ### **Scenario 2: Short-Term Bullish Retracement (30% Probability)** - If price holds above **$2,860**, a short-term retracement to **$2,900 - $2,920** may occur. - **Target: $2,900 - $2,920** before another decline. - **Confirmation:** A **bullish breakout above $2,875**. --- ## **3. Trading Plan** ### **Sell Setup: (Primary Trade - 70% Probability)** - **Entry:** $2,875 - $2,885. - **SL:** $2,905 (Above resistance). - **TP1:** $2,850 (First liquidity level). - **TP2:** $2,840 (Weak low). - **TP3:** $2,825 (Major demand zone). - **Risk-Reward Ratio:** 1:4. ### **Buy Setup: (Countertrend - 30% Probability)** - **Entry:** $2,860 - $2,865. - **SL:** $2,850 (Below weak low). - **TP1:** $2,880 (Short-term equilibrium). - **TP2:** $2,900 (Key supply zone). - **Risk-Reward Ratio:** 1:3. --- ## **4. Final Trade Execution Summary:** | Trade Type | Entry | Stop-Loss | Take-Profit 1 | Take-Profit 2 | Take-Profit 3 | R:R | |------------|------|-----------|---------------|---------------|---------------|-----| | **Sell Setup** | $2,875 - $2,885 | $2,905 | $2,850 | $2,840 | $2,825 | 1:4 | | **Buy Setup** | $2,860 - $2,865 | $2,850 | $2,880 | $2,900 | - | 1:3 | --- ## **📌 Additional Execution Tips:** - **Use M5/M15 for precise entries.** - **Wait for confirmation candles before entering.** - **Avoid entering trades during high-impact news releases.** - **Risk per trade:** 1-2% of capital for optimal drawdown control.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by wizzywise1
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 300 point range last week and we closed near the middle of it. Bulls buy new lows and bears sell every rip close or above the 4h 20ema. Bear channel is still valid but it’s getting weaker. We have also touched my bull trend line from 2024-09 and market has formed a triangle with a nested bear wedge. No big moves, both sides make money. So either scalp the range or don’t look at this. Update after crypto reserve news spike: Bear channel could still hold and if it does, the move down will be even more violent because of so many new trapped traders. Above 97k the bear channel is dead and we continue sideways inside the previous range 90k - 110k. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 72 bull case: Bulls have to be content with buying new lows and scalping a couple of points. Every rip is sold and they just can’t catch a break. Until they have a daily close above 72 again, there is nothing going for them. Sure they keep new lows shallow and the bear trend is getting weaker but that does not help any bull if they don’t make higher highs again. Very low chance that bulls see this as a very broad bull channel where this leg down was a test of the breakout price 70. If you look at a weekly chart, we are still making higher lows and higher highs. Invalidation is below 67.8. bear case: Bears fear that the bull trend line from September is bigger support and the bear trend is getting weaker. That is likely a reason why we will probably see more sideways movement now and less new lows. Bears are still favored until we have higher highs above 72 again. Shorts below 71 are bad, no matter how you put it. Invalidation is above 72. short term: Neutral. Shorts close or above 71 are fine and longs below 69. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated bear channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: The bear breakout finally happened. First time I wrote about 75k was when we broke above 100k 3 months ago. This bear trend is now confirmed and the only question for me is do we get 1 or 2 legs more. For now my main target remains 75000 and everything below is a bonus. The 50% retracement for the whole bull market since 2022-11 is at 62k, but I highly doubt we can get there in the medium term. The big bull trend line and monthly 20ema is now my lowest medium target - around 68/70k. We have not touched the monthly 20ema since 2023-10. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 70k - 95k bull case: Bulls stopped the fall above the breakout price around 74k and they want to keep some of the bull gap open to keep the hopes of a continuation up alive. On the weekly and monthly chart it is still a bull trend until we break below the trend line currently at 65k. Bulls main objective is now to print higher lows and bounce to at least the daily ema around 92k. Trends can only be very strong, if pull-backs are shallow and many traders trapped in losing positions, so they have to cover once it’s clear that we will get nowhere near their entry price. If bulls can bounce this above 90k or even 94k, all bulls who previously bought the lows and bought them now as well, will be able to make money. Invalidation is below 70k. bear case: Bears showed strength by finally closing consecutive days below 90k and even dropped below 80k. Now they need to break below the breakout price at 74k and close the gap to the previous ath. Once they have accomplished that, this bull trend is much less strong and they can try to test down to the bull trend line around 68k, depending on when we get there. Last weeks selling is likely the W1 of a intermediate bear trend inside the bigger bull trend. Could it be the start of a bigger bear trend where we test down to the 50% retracement of the multi-year bull trend around 62k? Possible but irrelevant for now. Bears have to take it level by level. I have drawn two potential ways forward for this wave-series. Much less bearish would be a bigger two-legged move where the pull-back would reach up to 94k and the second leg down could stay above 75k, if it would even get there. Much more bearish alternative would be a measured move down to almost exactly the named 50% retracement at 62k. We could get there in a 5-wave series, which is also drawn on the chart. As always, price is likely much more probable than timing on the chart. Invalidation is above 95k. short term: Max bearish. Any pullback is a good short with a stop 97k. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. Right now nothing is moving, so my targets are useless for any trade. Here is my year end special outlook from 2024-12-29 bear case: The pain trade is to the downside. There is no arguing about that fact. Only issue for bears is that bubbles can go on for longer than anyone’s account can handle. So selling right now with a stop 109k is reasonable but most bears want more confirmation. Below 90000 more bulls have to cover and this will accelerate down. My targets in order are the breakout retest around 75000 and if things get bad enough there, we go down to the 50% pullback and the bull trend line at 62500. There I expect the market to go sideways for more time and depending on how we get there, we can estimate new targets above or below. current swing trade: Looking to scale into shorts around 90k with stop 97k. chart update: Added potential bear channel and two wave-series.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
EUR: watch for a single word that could change everything The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its March 6 meeting, lowering the deposit rate to 2.5%. All 82 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the cut. So, with this in the bag, the focus shifts to what comes next. Markets see a 60% chance of another cut in April, but hawkish policymakers like Isabel Schnabel are pushing back. According to ING, a key signal will be whether the ECB drops the term “restrictive” from its stance. If it does, a pause could follow; if not, further cuts may be likely. Overall, though, the ECB is unlikely to provide detailed forward guidance. Factors like U.S. tariffs and developments in Ukraine could significantly impact the eurozone economy, making it difficult to set a long-term policy path.
by BlackBull_Markets
BTC Consolidating at Golden Fib Levels – Big Move Ahead?Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is currently consolidating near a strong support zone, aligning with key Fibonacci retracement levels and a primary support line. The golden Fibonacci levels (0.5 - 0.618) around $72,000 - $79,500 are acting as a critical demand zone, historically supporting price recoveries. If BTC maintains support at these levels, we could see a strong bounce and continuation toward new all-time highs, with $100,000+ as a possible target. However, failure to hold this region may lead to a deeper retracement toward the long-term support line around $60,000 - $62,000.
Long
by unichartz