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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Rectangle Pattern Breakdown – Bearish Move1. Overview of the Chart & Market Context The chart provided represents Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, published on TradingView. This analysis highlights the rectangle pattern formation, key support and resistance levels, and a potential short trade setup with defined risk management. The market structure suggests a bearish outlook, as Bitcoin attempted to break above a resistance level but failed, leading to a sharp decline. The price action now indicates further downside movement, aligning with a rectangle pattern breakdown. 2. Rectangle Pattern Formation What is a Rectangle Pattern? A rectangle pattern is a consolidation phase where price moves sideways within a defined range, forming multiple touches at resistance and support before a breakout occurs. It can serve as a continuation or reversal pattern, depending on the breakout direction. In this case, the pattern has resulted in a bearish breakout, indicating that sellers have taken control of the market. Key Characteristics of This Rectangle Pattern: The upper boundary (resistance) is at 88,333 USD, where price repeatedly failed to break higher. The lower boundary (support) is at 78,044 USD, which acted as a strong floor but is now under pressure. The price moved within this range for an extended period, showing a balanced battle between buyers and sellers. A failed breakout at resistance, followed by a sharp rejection, signals a bearish reversal. 3. Breakdown of Key Levels & Market Structure A. Resistance Level – 88,333 USD This level has been tested multiple times, but price failed to hold above it. The recent failed breakout led to a strong bearish rejection, confirming resistance. The price action formed a bearish engulfing candlestick, adding to the bearish bias. B. Support Level – 78,044 USD This zone has previously provided multiple bounces, showing strong buying interest. However, with the recent break below this level, it may now act as resistance. If the price retests this area and fails to break above, it confirms a bearish continuation. C. Price Rejection and Market Structure Shift The formation of lower highs and lower lows signals a transition from consolidation to a downtrend. The price broke out of the rectangle pattern to the downside, confirming a bearish breakout. If the support at 78,044 USD fails, the price may continue dropping toward 73,678 USD. 4. Trade Setup & Execution Plan 🔹 Entry Strategy A short position is initiated after the bearish rejection at resistance (88,333 USD). The breakdown of the rectangle pattern strengthens the short setup. The price may briefly retest the broken support (78,044 USD) before continuing downward. 🔹 Stop-Loss Placement The stop-loss (SL) is placed above 88,333 USD, ensuring that if price moves against the trade, risk is minimized. This protects against any unexpected bullish reversal. 🔹 Profit Targets (Take Profit - TP) TP1: 78,044 USD (previous support level) – A conservative target. TP2: 73,678 USD (deeper support) – If bearish momentum continues, this is the extended target. Trade Component Details Entry Short after rejection at 88,333 USD Stop-Loss (SL) Above 88,333 USD Take Profit 1 (TP1) 78,044 USD Take Profit 2 (TP2) 73,678 USD Confirmation Breakout & retest of support Risk-Reward Ratio Favorable (defined SL & TP) 5. Expected Price Action and Market Behavior 🔻 Bearish Scenario (Most Likely Outcome) The price will continue to fall towards TP1 (78,044 USD) due to selling pressure. If 78,044 USD fails to hold, Bitcoin is likely to test the next major support level (73,678 USD). The structure of lower highs and lower lows supports the downtrend. 🔺 Bullish Scenario (Invalidation of the Short Setup) If Bitcoin breaks above 88,333 USD, the bearish outlook is invalidated. This could signal a potential trend reversal or bullish breakout. 6. Technical Indicators Supporting the Analysis Several technical indicators can be used to confirm the bearish outlook: 📉 RSI (Relative Strength Index): If RSI is below 50, it confirms bearish momentum. If RSI is oversold (<30), a temporary bounce may occur. 📉 Moving Averages: If the 50-period MA crosses below the 200-period MA, it confirms a bearish trend. If price is below both MAs, it strengthens the bearish setup. 📉 Volume Analysis: A high selling volume during the breakdown indicates strong bearish conviction. If volume spikes near support levels, a potential bounce could happen. 7. Summary of Key Findings Pattern Identified: Rectangle pattern with a bearish breakout. Market Structure: Price formed lower highs and lower lows, signaling a downtrend. Trade Setup: Short trade after rejection at 88,333 USD. Stop-loss above 88,333 USD to manage risk. Profit targets at 78,044 USD (TP1) and 73,678 USD (TP2). Risk Management: Clear stop-loss and take-profit levels ensure a controlled risk-to-reward ratio. If price moves against the trade, the stop-loss prevents excessive losses. Technical Indicators: RSI, Moving Averages, and Volume Analysis confirm the bearish outlook. 8. Final Thoughts & Trading Plan Implementation This analysis presents a high-probability bearish trade setup using the rectangle pattern breakdown strategy. With proper risk management, traders can execute this short trade with a structured plan. 🔹 Actionable Trading Plan: Wait for price confirmation – If BTC retests the broken support (78,044 USD) and rejects, this strengthens the trade idea. Execute the short trade – Once confirmation occurs, enter a short position. Manage risk appropriately – Stick to the stop-loss above 88,333 USD. Monitor price action – Adjust take-profit levels based on momentum and support breaks. If the price invalidates the setup by breaking above resistance, it is crucial to exit the trade and re-evaluate the market conditions. Conclusion: This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rectangle pattern breakdown analysis provides a clear bearish trade setup, supported by market structure, technical indicators, and price action. The well-defined entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels ensure a structured risk-reward ratio, making this a viable short trade opportunity.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
4.3 How to operate after the sharp rise in gold prices4.3 How to operate after the sharp rise in gold prices 1. Impact of tariff policies - Base tax rate 10% + "reciprocal tariffs": Trump's radical tariff policy far exceeds market expectations, directly triggering concerns about escalating global trade frictions and triggering market risk aversion demand. 2. Expectations of a weaker US dollar: Tariffs may weaken the competitiveness of US exports, and the Federal Reserve may introduce loose policies, which will put pressure on the US dollar and further support gold. 3. Gold's safe-haven properties have exploded Gold, as a hard currency without sovereign credit risk, has become a "safe haven" for funds. 4-hour cycle: Confirmation of strong structure: 3100 support: Multiple retracements have not been broken, forming an "ascending triangle" consolidation pattern, and a sharp breakthrough in the early trading confirms the continuation of the trend. Target forecast: Short-term: US$3,200 (integer psychological barrier + fermentation of risk aversion). Medium-term: If it breaks through 3,200 points, the next resistance level is 3,218 points. 1-hour chart strategy: Key watershed 3100: This week's lows gradually moved up (3076→3100→3106). If the callback does not break this position, the trend will not change. Intraday strength and weakness dividing line 3130: Yesterday's box top broke through and turned into support, which is in line with the principle of "top and bottom conversion". Ideal intraday long position: 3115-3120 area, stop loss 3105. Patiently wait for the callback Aggressive strategy: If the gold price stands above 3150, you can chase long with a light position, with a target of 3173→3200.
PYTH:XAUUSD
by Grace_00007
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis – April 3, 2025📊 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis – April 3, 2025 🚀 🔹 Current Price: 83,187.60 🔹 Timeframe: 30M 📌 Key Support Levels (Demand Zones): 🟢 81,266.01 – Major Support Zone 📌 Key Resistance Levels (Fair Value Gaps - FVGs & Supply Zones): 🔴 83,929.01 – First Target 🔴 85,231.24 – Major Resistance (Potential Target) 📈 Bullish Scenario: BTC is currently consolidating around 83,187 and forming a potential bullish structure. A break above 83,929.01 could lead to a rally toward 85,231.24. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (85,310.24) is a key area to watch for potential resistance. 📉 Bearish Scenario: If BTC fails to hold above 83,000, we could see a drop towards the 81,266 support zone. A break below 81,266 may indicate further downside movement. ⚡ Trading Tip: ✅ Wait for bullish confirmation before entering long positions. ✅ Look for potential rejection at the FVG zones for reversal trades. ✅ Use risk management and set stop losses appropriately. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #SmartMoney #CryptoMarket
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by FXFOREVER_87
Ethereum Price Analysis: Is a Drop to $1,550 Imminent This Week?As of April 3, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at approximately $1,838 (based on recent market data), reflecting a precarious position in the crypto market. After a volatile start to the year, ETH has shed over 44% year-to-date and is now testing critical support levels. This analysis explores the potential for an 11% drop to the $1,550 range within the next few days (by the end of this week, April 6), driven by technical breakdowns, bearish on-chain signals, and broader market pressures. Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Mounting On the daily chart, ETH has been struggling to maintain momentum above the $1,800 psychological level. After a brief bounce from its yearly low of $1,760 on March 11, the price has failed to reclaim the $2,000 mark—a key resistance zone that previously acted as support in late 2024. Here’s a breakdown of the technical setup: Key Support Breach: The $1,800–$1,877 range has been a critical support zone, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the December 2024 high of $4,106 to the March 2025 low of $1,759. A close below $1,770 this week would confirm a breakdown, opening the door to the next major support at $1,550–$1,600, a level last tested in October 2023. Bearish Pattern Confirmation: The 2-hour chart shows ETH completing a corrective structure (likely an A-B-C wave) after its March 19 peak at $2,070. If wave C mirrors wave A in length—a common Elliott Wave scenario—the target aligns near $1,550, coinciding with the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the recent bounce. Moving Averages: ETH is trading below both its 50-day SMA ($2,321) and 200-day SMA ($3,010), signaling a sustained bearish trend. The 50-day SMA, now sloping downward, acts as dynamic resistance, capping any relief rallies. A failure to reclaim this level soon reinforces the downside risk. RSI Oversold but Weak : The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, in strong downtrends, RSI can remain oversold for extended periods, as seen during ETH’s 2022 bear market. Momentum remains weak, with no bullish divergence to suggest an imminent reversal. Target Projection : A drop from $1,838 to $1,550 represents an 11% decline, achievable within 2–3 days if selling pressure accelerates. The $1,550 level aligns with historical support and the long-term 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, making it a plausible target. On-Chain Data: Selling Pressure Intensifies On-chain metrics paint a grim picture, supporting the bearish technical outlook: Exchange Reserves Rising: Ethereum’s exchange reserve has ticked up from 18.3 million ETH, reversing a multi-month decline. This suggests long-term holders or institutions are moving assets from cold storage to exchanges, potentially preparing to sell. Whale Activity: Recent data shows significant whale sell-offs, with large transactions (over 100 ETH) spiking in the past 48 hours. This aligns with posts on X noting whale distribution near current levels, adding downward pressure. DeFi Weakness: Ethereum’s dominance in decentralized finance (DeFi) is waning, with total value locked (TVL) dropping as competing Layer-1 chains gain traction. Reduced network activity undermines ETH’s utility-driven demand, a key pillar of its value proposition. Staking Dynamics: While staking activity increased post-Shapella upgrade, the anticipated selling pressure from unstaked ETH continues to linger, especially as macroeconomic uncertainty prompts profit-taking. Market Sentiment: Fear Dominates The broader crypto market is reeling from macroeconomic headwinds. The U.S. Core PCE Index rose to 2.8% in February, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, signaling persistent inflation. Higher interest rates for longer dampen risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Posts on X reflect growing pessimism, with some traders eyeing sub-$1,000 levels if $1,760 fails—a sentiment echoed by Ethereum’s 7% drop this week alone. Bitcoin (BTC), trading near $82,000, has also faltered, dragging altcoins lower. ETH’s correlation with BTC remains high (around 0.9), and a failure to hold $80,000 for BTC could amplify ETH’s decline. Additionally, the lack of immediate catalysts—such as ETF approvals or major network upgrades—leaves ETH vulnerable to further capitulation. Price Scenarios and Key Levels Bearish Case (Base Scenario): A daily close below $1,770 triggers a swift move to $1,550–$1,600 by April 6. Volume spikes and panic selling could push it lower, though $1,550 offers strong historical support. Bullish Rejection: A reclaim of $2,070 (the March 19 high) invalidates the bearish setup, potentially sparking a relief rally to $2,250. This seems unlikely without a significant BTC breakout or positive news. Invalidation: A close above $2,120 this week would negate the short-term bearish thesis, though resistance at the 50-day SMA ($2,321) caps upside potential. Trading Strategy Entry: Short ETH below $1,770 with confirmation of increased volume. Target: $1,550 (11% drop), with a stretch goal of $1,500 if momentum persists. Stop Loss: $1,911 (intraday high from April 2), limiting risk to 4–5%. Risk/Reward: Approximately 2.5:1, assuming a $1,550 target. Conclusion Ethereum’s technical setup, coupled with bearish on-chain signals and a fearful market, suggests an 11% drop to $1,550 is plausible by the end of this week (April 6, 2025). The $1,770 level is the line in the sand—watch it closely. While oversold conditions hint at a potential bounce, the lack of buying conviction and macro pressures tilt the odds toward further downside. Traders should monitor BTC’s price action and exchange inflows for confirmation. Stay nimble, and let the charts guide your next move.
Short
by Liquidmex
US 100 IndexIt would seem within the coming week, the first potential support to monitor on a closing basis is still the 19065 retracement, with 20307 continuing to represent possible resistance. While closing breaks of either of these levels won’t guarantee a significant price movement with much still dependent on the outcome of events across the week, a closing breakout may lead to a more extended price move in the direction of any break. Support: Closing breaks under the 19065 support might suggest resumption of recent declines, with risks possibly then emerging to test 18111, which is the deeper 50% retracement, may be even further if this is in turn breached. Resistance: If 20307 is broken to the upside on a closing basis, it may lead to a further retracement of the February to March weakness, with the 50% level standing at 20679, or even 21050, which is the higher 62% retracement.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by CecaRockefeller
Gold price is above 3130, long at low priceGold price is above 3130, long at low price As shown in the figure 12345 form channel changes respectively, and the trend accelerates upward Principle: Trends are abstract So we draw specific channel lines to intuitively feel the trend You can see that the channel angle reflected by 1-5 is constantly expanding. The reflected gold price trend: emotions are getting stronger and stronger The gold price trend is about to get out of control Let's now focus on analyzing the two triangle oscillation convergence patterns AB Principle: The end of the triangle convergence oscillation is the time to choose a new direction Now, it has entered the end of the oscillation So we can draw a conclusion Gold prices may soar or plummet at any time Then the existing strategy is to follow the trend The simplest and most effective strategy is to use 3130 as support Retreat to low prices and go long Stop loss near 3130 (determine the stop loss based on your order ratio and the price effectively captured) Once the gold price explodes in the future, breaking through 3200 is also a high probability event
FX:XAUUSD
by Louisa00000
Alphabet ($GOOGL) Nearing Completion of 5-Wave DeclineIn our latest Elliott Wave analysis of Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) on the 30 minute chart, we observe a clear 5-wave impulse structure unfolding to the downside, originating from the February 5, 2025 peak. This decline aligns with the broader corrective pattern, and we believe NASDAQ:GOOGL is now in the final stages of this bearish move before a larger recovery takes shape. Let’s break down the structure and what to expect next. Wave Structure Breakdown The chart below illustrates that NASDAQ:GOOGL reached a significant high on February 5, 2025, at 209.51. From this peak, the stock initiated a 5-wave impulse decline: - Wave ((1)): The first leg down concluded at 156.72, marking a sharp initial decline from the February 5 high. - Wave ((2)): A corrective rally followed, retracing part of the decline and peaking at 171.28, completing wave ((2)) as the 30 minute chart below shows. - Wave ((3)): The decline resumed with wave ((3)), which extended lower to 150.66.  - Wave ((4)): A counter-trend rally unfolded in a 3-wave structure, labeled (W)-(X)-(Y) on the chart, reaching a high of 159.23 on April 3, 2025, as indicated on the chart. This peak marked the completion of wave ((4)). - Wave ((5)): The current leg lower began after the April 3 peak at 159.23. As of the latest data on April 3, 2025, NASDAQ:GOOGL has reached 152.76, as shown on the chart, and appears to be in the final stages of wave ((5)). Current Position and Invalidation Level The chart highlights an invalidation level at 171.34 (the “RIGHT SIDE+” line in red). As long as NASDAQ:GOOGL remains below this level, the bearish outlook for wave ((5)) remains valid. With the current price at 152.76, wave ((5)) is likely approaching its conclusion soon. It should not go below 138.7, otherwise wave ((3)) will be the shortest wave. Alphabet (GOOGL) 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart What’s Next: A Larger 3-Wave Rally Upon the completion of wave ((5)), we expect NASDAQ:GOOGL to initiate a larger 3-wave corrective rally. This should be end a higher-degree wave b. The rally should unfold in a 3-wave pattern (A-B-C) and could target a retracement toward the 170.6 area, where prior wave ((2)) levels may act as resistance.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by Elliottwave-Forecast
GBPUSD NEW UPDATESHello, Its been a long time since no post new ideas here! Here is my longterm/swing trades on FX:GBPUSD , I recommend on longs only at below entry. This idea base only on my own. This is also daily, it might take or not. But the idea here is long at this zone, see the chart for your view. This is not a financial advice, my idea on pound is continue to rise or clear the above previous high 1.34 zone or more highs. This is your longterm/swing trades. Trade wisely, I will update once the price breaks the first $$$ target zone. Do your charts and compare it. Follow for more.
Long
by D1GITALTRADES
NZDJPY The Target Is UP! BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for NZDJPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 85.141 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 86.026 My Stop Loss - 85.089 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Solana Correction - Is a Drop to $60 Inevitable?After an explosive 200x rally, Solana surged from its all time low at $1 to a new all time high in 2021, followed by a correction to $10 in 2022. It then made another massive run to $250 in 2024. Now, a double-top "M" pattern is forming, signaling a reversal. As shown on the chart, we could see a drop to $60. What's your take - has the top been set, or do you disagree with the bearish outlook? Let me know your thoughts! Kindly support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
Short
by PetrockFxTrading