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BTCUSD – Major Decision Point at The Edge📍 By: MJTrading ||| Bitcoin has rallied sharply from ~$98K and is now testing a critical confluence zone — the top of the descending channel and a strong supply area, known as "The Edge." EMAs are turning up, supporting bullish momentum ⏳ What’s Next? At this stage, two scenarios emerge: ⚠️ This is a make-or-break zone: 🟩 Breakout above the channel signals trend reversal → next resistance: $111K 🟨 Rejection leads to a move back to the $103K or $100K levels This setup offers a high-RR opportunity for both breakout traders and mean reversion players. 🧠 Trade the reaction at the edge, not the prediction. Thanks for your attention... Share your thoughts... — #BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #TheEdge #BreakoutOrBounce #CryptoSetup #DescendingChannel #SmartMoney #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #SwingTrade #EMA #RiskReward #MJTrading #4hChart #TrendDecision #SupplyZone
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by MJElahifx
Analysis of Bitcoin Market StrategyTechnical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) Contracts: In terms of today's market, the daily chart of the large cycle closed with a small bullish candle yesterday. The K-line pattern shows consecutive upward movements, with the price above the moving averages. The attached indicators are in a golden cross, indicating an obvious upward trend in the long term. However, the current upward momentum and sustainability are relatively weak. Therefore, it is recommended to maintain short-term trading and strictly control risks. In the short-term hourly chart, the overall price has been consolidating at high levels. The current K-line pattern is in consecutive bullish candles, with the price above the moving averages, and the attached indicators are in a golden cross. Therefore, an upward movement is highly probable today, with the support level near the 106,300 area. you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results. Trading Strategy: buy@106300-106500 TP:108000-108500
Long
by MyronWilson
AUD/USD Bearish Setup – Rejection from Supply ZoneAUD/USD is showing signs of bearish pressure after getting rejected from the key 0.65420 supply zone, marked by strong historical resistance and a high-volume node. Price tested this area multiple times but failed to break above, forming a potential lower high – a classic signal of institutional distribution. 🔵 Key Levels: Resistance (Supply Zone): 0.65420 Mid-range support: 0.65040 Demand Zone: 0.64649 – 0.64400 🔻 Bearish Outlook: If price holds below 0.65420, we anticipate a drop first toward 0.65040, and potentially down to 0.64649, where a demand zone is likely to react. The previous bounce from demand suggests smart money accumulation below. 📌 Watch for: Bearish engulfing or rejection wick candles near 0.65400. Break below 0.65040 to confirm short continuation. Confluence with macroeconomic events (FOMC, US data on the 17th–18th). 💬 Are you shorting AUD/USD from the supply zone? Drop your thoughts👇 #AUDUSD #Forex #SmartMoney #SupplyDemand #PriceAction #LuxAlgo #ForexTrading #TradingView #MarketStructure
Short
by FrankFx14
Bitcoin Pressing Up But This Compression Could Crack LowerBitcoin has been steadily climbing for months, respecting that long-term trendline since last year. Each dip into it brought a strong bounce, showing bulls are still in control of the bigger picture. But right now price is pressing into a tight descending resistance line. We can see it making lower highs while struggling to break above that red trendline. At the same time, it’s sitting just above a key horizontal range, where buyers stepped in before. This compression is risky . If BTC fails to push above the descending resistance and breaks back below the box, it could drop toward the next demand zone around the low 100K region . As long as the major trendline from last year holds, the broader uptrend is intact . But losing this structure would open the door for a deeper correction. This is the kind of spot where patience pays. Let the breakout or breakdown show its hand before jumping in heavy.
by Crusade1Jay
1
Gold trend next week: shorts are dominant, longs are secondaryGold trend next week: shorts are dominant, longs are secondary (June 29, 2025) Analysis of current market situation and key price levels: The gold market has completely entered the short-dominated stage, and the technical pattern shows a typical step-down trend. This week, the market rebounded to only $3,321 before continuing to fall, breaking through the 3,300 psychological barrier, the 3,280 technical support level and the daily level trend line, forming a standard downward channel. The current price is testing the key support area of ​​3,250-3,270. Moving average system: The 50-day moving average (3,325) and the 200-day moving average (3,288) formed a death cross, and the price continued to fall below all major moving averages. Trading volume characteristics: When COMEX gold futures fell below 3,300 points, the trading volume increased to 180% of the daily average, indicating an increase in short positions. Position structure: CFTC data showed that speculative net long positions fell to the lowest level in 12 months. A single buy order of more than 5,000 lots (about 160 million US dollars) appeared in the 3270 area. Operation strategy for next week: Scenario 1: 3270 support level is effective (probability 40%) Rebound target: 3295 points (intraday) → 3313 points (intraweek) Operation suggestion: Radicals can try to go long with a light position at 3268-3272 points. (Stop loss 3258) Conservatives wait for a breakout of 3285, then fall back to 3278 for follow-up All long orders are closed in batches above 3310 Scenario 2: Direct break down (probability 55%) Downward target: 3250→3232 (April low)→3200 psychological barrier Operation strategy: Current price short orders can be held to 3250 to close half of the position Rebound to 3285-3290 to increase short positions (stop loss 3303) After breaking 3250, be cautious in chasing shorts (to prevent short-term short covering) Scenario 3: Range oscillation (probability 5%) Volatility range: 3270-3295 Event-driven strategy: Focus on July 1 ISM manufacturing PMI (North 22:00 Beijing time) Fed officials' speeches (especially Williams' speech at 09:30 on July 2) Institutional order flow analysis: There are stop-loss orders worth about $320 million below 3270 Above 3300, there are about $280 million of sell orders (mainly from CTA strategies) Special tips for risk control Liquidity risk: Market liquidity may drop sharply before the July 4th Independence Day holiday in the United States Risk of sudden policy changes: There may be changes in the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine Technical traps: Beware of the "false breakthrough" that may appear in the 3270 area Note the weakening of the short-term correlation between US Treasury yields and gold In the current market environment, it is recommended to adopt the "main short and secondary long" trading strategy. For short-term traders, the rebound opportunity in the 3270 area is worth participating in with a light position; Mid-term investors should remain patient and wait for clearer reversal signals or lower safety margins. A panoramic analysis of the gold market in June: an in-depth interpretation of geopolitics, monetary policy and price trends. The current gold market is at a critical turning point, with multiple factors interweaving to affect the short-term fluctuations and long-term trends of gold prices. As of June 29, 2025, the international gold price has experienced violent fluctuations, falling from the high point at the beginning of the month to a low point in the past four weeks, and market sentiment has shifted from optimism to caution. This article will comprehensively sort out the latest gold market dynamics, deeply analyze the impact of geopolitical risks, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the global economic situation and technical factors on gold prices, and look forward to the possible trend of the gold market in the future, providing investors with a comprehensive market perspective and strategic recommendations. The latest gold price trends and market overview: In June 2025, the international gold market experienced significant price fluctuations, showing a trend of "first rise and then fall". As of the close of June 28, the spot gold price was $3273.11/ounce, down 1.64% from the previous trading day, hitting the lowest level since December 2024; The multiple factors that led to the plunge in gold prices include: The strengthening of the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, the easing of geopolitical risks, and the intensification of technical selling. The US core PCE price index released on June 27 rose 2.8% year-on-year, higher than market expectations. Several Fed officials publicly stated that "interest rates may be raised by another 50 basis points this year", causing the US dollar index to soar to 107.5, which strongly suppressed gold. At the same time, the two sides of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict reached a phased ceasefire agreement on June 25, and the market's risk aversion demand dropped sharply, and the gold ETF holdings decreased by 42 tons in a single week. Technically, the gold price fell below the key point of $3,400, triggering a large-scale liquidation of algorithmic trading. The trading volume of gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) surged to three times the usual day, further exacerbating the downward momentum. From the perspective of market structure, the current gold market shows obvious differentiation characteristics: On the one hand, institutional investors such as hedge fund giant Bridgewater Fund were exposed to reduce their holdings of gold ETF shares by more than 30% and increase their holdings of US Treasury bonds; On the other hand, Goldman Sachs lowered its three-month gold target price from $3,600 to $3,100 on the grounds that "the upward cycle of real interest rates has not ended." This shift in institutional behavior reflects the market's pessimistic expectations for gold's short-term prospects. It is worth noting that despite the short-term weakness, long-term support factors for gold still exist. Global central bank demand for gold purchases increased by 18% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. Central banks in emerging markets such as China and India continued to increase their holdings of gold to diversify foreign exchange reserve risks. In terms of physical demand, the China-India wedding season (June-August) and the expected "October" consumption peak season, gold jewelry demand accounted for more than 45% of global total demand, and China's gold consumption in 2025 may exceed 1,200 tons (an increase of 8% year-on-year). This resilience of supply and demand fundamentals provides potential support for gold prices. The impact of geopolitical risks on the gold market Geopolitical factors have always been an important variable affecting gold prices. Changes in the global geopolitical pattern in June 2025 have had a significant impact on the gold market. The sharp fluctuations in gold prices this month are closely related to the evolution of geopolitical events such as the situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These events directly affect the demand intensity of gold as a "safe haven asset" by changing the market's risk aversion sentiment. The situation in the Middle East has experienced a transition from tension to relaxation this month, becoming a key driver of the rise and fall of gold prices. In early June, concerns about the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran pushed the price of gold to $3,415 per ounce. Market data shows that for every 10 points increase in the historical geo-risk index, the price of gold has risen by an average of 2.3%. However, as Israel revised the hostage negotiation plan, direct conflict between Iran and Israel was temporarily suspended, and tensions in the Middle East showed obvious signs of easing. In late June, Trump publicly declared that "the Israel-Iran conflict is over", further weakening the market's risk aversion demand. The fading of this geo-risk premium directly led to a decline in the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset, becoming one of the important factors for the decline in gold prices. The development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict also had a significant impact on the gold market. On June 25, Russia and Ukraine reached a phased ceasefire agreement. This breakthrough has significantly boosted market risk appetite and further weakened the safe-haven demand for gold. Prior to this, the market had generally worried that if the ceasefire negotiations broke down or the scope of the conflict expanded, it might push up the volatility of gold prices. The conclusion of the ceasefire agreement eliminated this uncertainty, resulting in a 42-ton decrease in gold ETF holdings in a single week, reflecting the rapid cooling of investors' risk aversion. It is worth noting that although geopolitical risks have eased recently, potential risk factors still exist. The "proxy war" in the Middle East (such as the attack on Red Sea merchant ships by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen) is still ongoing, and the security risks of global energy transportation channels (such as the Suez Canal) have not been completely eliminated. In addition, geopolitical variables such as the 2025 US election (November) and the expected winter offensive of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may still push up safe-haven demand in the future. The "safe-haven attribute" of gold as an important safety cushion for its price has not completely disappeared. From historical experience, the impact of geopolitical events on gold often presents the characteristics of "buy expectations, sell facts". When a geopolitical crisis first appears or escalates, the price of gold usually rises rapidly; once the situation eases or the solution becomes clear, the price of gold will fall back. The market performance in June 2025 once again verified this rule. However, our team believes that the current easing of the geopolitical situation may only be temporary, and the structural contradictions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have not been fundamentally resolved. New conflicts may still break out in the future, which will provide potential support for gold prices. In terms of the interactive relationship between geopolitics and gold prices, the market needs to pay attention to several key nodes: First, whether the situation in the Middle East will be repeated, especially the direction of relations between Iran and the United States and Israel; Second, whether the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine can continue, and whether large-scale military operations will be restarted in winter; Third, the uncertainty of geopolitical policies in the US election year, especially the policy statements on key regions such as the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. These factors may rekindle the market's risk aversion in the future and drive the gold price to rebound. Analysis of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the trend of the US dollar: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trends and the trend of the US dollar have always been the core factors affecting the price of gold. The changes in the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies in June 2025 directly led to the sharp fluctuations in the price of gold. As an interest-free asset, the price of gold is negatively correlated with the actual interest rate level, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has a profound impact on the trend of the US dollar index and global capital flows, which makes the Federal Reserve's every move affect the nerves of the gold market. In June, the Federal Reserve's policy stance showed a clear hawkish turn, which put heavy pressure on the gold market. The US core PCE price index released on June 27 rose 2.8% year-on-year, higher than market expectations. This data strengthened the reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. Several Federal Reserve officials subsequently publicly stated that "another 50 basis points of interest rate hikes may be made this year", causing the US dollar index to soar to 107.5, a recent high. According to the CME "Fed Watch" tool, as of June 27, traders bet on a 79.3% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July, and only 20.7% expected a single rate cut of 25 basis points; in the forecast for September, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 or 50 basis points reached 74.9% and 19.1%, respectively. This change in interest rate expectations directly pushed up the US dollar and suppressed the price of gold denominated in US dollars. There are obvious differences within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the timing of rate cuts, and this policy uncertainty has exacerbated the volatility of the gold market. Some officials emphasized the resilience of the job market and the potential upside risks of inflation, and believed that it was necessary to wait for more economic data observations after the implementation of tariff policies; Other views tended to take preventive easing measures in the fall. In his speech after the June interest rate meeting, Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that "there is no rush to cut interest rates", further dampening the market's expectations for a shift in monetary policy in the short term. This inconsistency in policy signals has caused gold investors to wait and see, and some funds have chosen to temporarily withdraw from the gold market. The strong rebound of the US dollar index is a direct factor suppressing gold prices. As the market's expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates heat up, the US dollar index has rebounded significantly from its annual low and has broken through the 107 mark as of June 28. The strengthening of the US dollar makes gold denominated in US dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies, suppressing international demand. Technical analysis shows that the cyclical (monthly) turning point of the US dollar index is coming. Due to its recent obvious downward trend, the impact of this turning point is obviously biased towards the US dollar, which may further suppress gold prices. It is worth noting that there is a dual mechanism for the impact of the Fed's policy on gold. In the short term, the hawkish stance pushes up the US dollar and real interest rates, directly suppressing gold prices; but in the medium and long term, maintaining high interest rates may increase the risk of economic recession, which may enhance the safe-haven appeal of gold in the future. The current market is in a stage of game between these two forces, which is also an important reason for the intensified volatility of gold prices. The Fed's balance between suppressing inflation and avoiding a hard landing of the economy will determine the future direction of gold. In the coming period, the market needs to pay close attention to several key data points to judge the direction of the Fed's policy: First, the change in inflation data around the deadline for tariff suspension on July 9; Second, employment and GDP data before the Fed's interest rate meeting in September; Third, the impact of global supply chain conditions on core inflation. These factors will jointly determine the Fed's policy path, and thus affect the medium-term trend of gold prices. If the US economic data shows obvious signs of slowing down, it may restart the market's expectations for interest rate cuts, which will provide upward momentum for gold; On the contrary, if the economy remains resilient and inflation remains high, gold may continue to be under pressure. Analysis of the global economic situation and gold demand: Changes in the global macroeconomic environment have a profound impact on the gold market. The complex situation of the global economy in June 2025 has created a structural differentiation in gold demand. On the one hand, trade policy uncertainty and concerns about slowing growth support the safe-haven demand for gold; On the other hand, the inhibitory effect of high gold prices on physical consumption and the adjustment of the pace of gold purchases by some central banks put pressure on gold prices. This interweaving of long and short factors puts the gold market in a delicate balance. The uncertainty of tariff policy has become an important variable affecting the gold market. The US government has made it clear that it will not extend the suspension period of import tariffs, which will expire on July 9. This decision will directly affect the global supply chain costs and inflation levels. Although the specific adjustment plan has not yet been announced, the market is generally worried that if the new tariff measures are implemented, it may push up the price pressure on the production side, thereby indirectly supporting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. At present, the United States has not reached an agreement framework with its major trading partners (including the European Union), and policy uncertainty may continue to provide support for gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by louisa111222
USDT Dominance Consolidating — Major Move Loading?USDT dominance is currently stuck in a sideways range between key resistance and strong support zones. We’ve seen a rejection from the upper resistance, and now price is drifting toward the nearest support. If this zone holds, expect another bounce. If it breaks, altcoins could finally catch a strong bid — possibly the early signal for altseason. No rush here. Just keep your eyes on that mid S/R level. It’s a key battleground.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by unichartz
Market Recap: Nifty Breaks Out After 5 Weeks of Consolidation!The Indian stock market saw a strong bullish move this week, with Nifty 50 closing at 25,637, marking a significant gain of 525 points from the previous week's close. The index made a high of 25,654 and a low of 24,824, finally breaking out of the key resistance zone of 25,000–25,100 after five weeks of sideways consolidation. This breakout is a critical technical development, signaling renewed strength in the broader market. However, to sustain this momentum and target the all-time high zone of 26,134–26,277, Nifty may need to either: Consolidate within the previous week's range of 25,650–24,800, or Retest the breakout level near 25,200 for confirmation. Failing to do so could make this breakout a false one. Weekly Outlook for Nifty: For the coming week, the expected trading range is between 25,200 and 26,150. Price action around these levels will be key to watch. On a broader sectoral view, out of 14 NSE indices, only Nifty Financial Services is showing relative strength on the monthly chart—a potential red flag for sustained bullish sentiment. When just one sector leads while others lag, it's often a sign to remain cautious. Strategy Suggestion: Consider booking partial profits and trailing stop losses on the remaining positions. Until the monthly time frame turns decisively bullish, it's wise to stay alert and manage risk actively. Global Markets: S&P 500 Breaks Out! In the U.S., the S&P 500 surged to close at 6,173, successfully breaking above its key resistance level at 6,013. This breakout, if sustained above 6,150 next week, opens up the path toward higher targets: 6,225 / 6,376 / 6,454 / 6,500. However, traders should remain flexible. If the breakout fails, we could see a pullback to support zones near 6,013 or even 5,899. Pro Tip: Be ready to switch trading positions quickly if the breakout doesn’t hold—volatility is still very much in play in both Indian and U.S. markets.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
AUD/USD 4H – Bearish Supply Zone Rejection & Mid-Term Short BiasAUD/USD 4H – Bearish Supply Zone Rejection & Mid-Term Short Bias The Aussie has climbed into a major supply zone near the 0.67380 – 0.67540 area, which overlaps with a historical resistance range from late 2024. Price is currently testing the upper edge of this zone, showing signs of exhaustion. 🔍 Key Observations: Supply Zone Reaction: The confluence of past resistance (clearly marked as 'R') and current bearish candle formations suggests a potential reversal setup. Liquidity Grab & Rejection: The current push may be a liquidity sweep above recent highs, potentially trapping breakout buyers before a reversal. Downside Targets: First support area around 0.65311 – 0.65000, previously respected demand zone. If momentum continues, extended targets lie at 0.62729, 0.60874, and 0.59206 – all aligned with previous price reactions and liquidity pockets. 📊 Trading Plan: Bias: Short (mid-term swing) Entry Zone: 0.67350 – 0.67540 (sell limit / wait for confirmation) Stop Loss: Above 0.67650 (above last swing high) Targets: TP1: 0.65300 TP2: 0.62730 TP3: 0.60870 🧠 Risk Note: Price has entered a high-probability reversal zone, but confirmation via bearish engulfing or lower-timeframe structure break is ideal before entering aggressively.
Short
by raksazatrader
$USDT.D: Bearish ChartCRYPTOCAP:USDT.D | 3D Price action on USDT dominance has been significantly cleaner than CRYPTOCAP:BTC in recent weeks, providing much clearer pivot signals. On the 3-day chart, we can see that the 5% level has turned into a strong supply zone and is currently being rejected. If the price fails to reclaim the 5% level, it will likely move back down toward the 4.30% level. Outlook: Expecting CRYPTOCAP:BTC to sweep local highs while CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D remains bearish. Potential downside levels: 4.5% and possibly even 3.90%
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by Tealstreet
Analysis on SET INDEX: Time to bet (Continued)Dear All Continued from the previous post, It seem to choose to come down first before rising up. So now, it is easy to plan the trade, as long as There is buying flow coming around 1063 1053 // that would be the best point to buy. But if broken, the long bias set up will become incorrect and cut loss is needed. Now there are two choices again: first it can hold, => should went up very rapidly to 1120 1160 1230 consecutively. second it cannot hold, => 970 Best regards, TraderPP
SET:SETLong
by QuanTechTraderPP
Is the Uptrend Over? Critical Break on the Silver 1-Hour ChartHey everyone, After the upward trend structure on XAGUSD broke down, the support level was breached, followed by a pullback. Because of this, my target level is 35.286.💬 Also, keep a close eye on key economic data releases on the fundamental side, as they could significantly influence your strategy. I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
FXOPEN:XAGUSDShort
by TraderTilki