Chart Patterns
Ethereum (ETH): Weakness On Every CornerEthereum is bad, unwell, and very bad. While logically we need to see an uprise of the Ethereum ecosystem, we see only blood and red on the markets where each push we get sellers overtaking and dominating.
But we are going to see it as another opportunity to buy in; we might fall more here and even as low as $1750 or $1800 but keep in mind we did not reach the ATH on Ethereum when all that bullish movement happened... liquidity has to move somewhere and we think it will move here!
Swallow Team
Bitcoin crude oil3.3.25 Bitcoin had an incredible move lower and then quickly came back into the original range box... the take-home message on bitcoin is that it's trading in a Range and while it is not at the new high there's a reasonable chance that this Market will go higher from here. more has to happen before I would be bearish on bitcoin. I started talking about crude oil and I didn't finish... I would not be a buyer or a seller on crude and I'll clarify it on another video. I will also talk about gold and silver. I spent most of the time showing you pattern setups and reversal patterns and ABCD patterns and range boxes and that you trade range boxes to double if they go higher or they double and go lower and when you use that relationship the market typically takes you to the next level. I use a handful of tools and then I make my decisions and it's always about where the buyers and sellers are and something that I call to bar reversals. I always look at markets to decide if they are expanding or Contracting because those properties if you follow them will help you decide how far the market will move in your favor if you're long or short and they allow for you to have small stops and if you use the techniques you'll know what a realistic Target is as a buyer or a seller.. be patient with my style of delivery eventually you'll see the patterns and will decide if this is the way you want to trade but like any system you should get used to drawing the patterns and always be cognizant of whether a markets trending or ranging or is expanding or Contracting.
Gold rebounds and continues to riseThe market opened with a big positive rise in the morning, and then it kept fluctuating sideways, and then gradually rose in the European session, showing an overall fluctuating upward pattern.
For the current gold, this trend is in line with the technical market. On the one hand, the short trend fell sharply last week, and the market needs time to switch between long and short positions, not a linear fluctuation up and down.
On the other hand, it takes energy to accumulate through fluctuations from rebound to upward trend, so the market will not strengthen all at once in the initial stage, and it will rise in stages.
Therefore, for the time being, gold still maintains the idea of rebounding. The slow rise in the European market may continue in the evening. Focus on the first-line pressure of 2885-2887, where there may be some pressure to fall back. The lower support is at 2870-2871.
Bitcoin: A US Reserve CurrencyCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! )
On the morning of March 2nd, President Donald Trump posted a tweet to reinforce his commitment to a Crypto Strategic Reserve, including XRP, SOL and ADA.
Cryptocurrency market took off immediately. Despite not being mentioned in the tweet, Bitcoin shot up from $78,400 to $83,900, and Ethereum from $2,090 to $2,240.
Later in the afternoon, President Trump posted an update and clarified that BTC and ETH will be in the Reserve. “I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”, he tweeted.
At the time of this writing, BTC is quoted $94,308, up 20.3% since the first tweet. ETH is trading at $2,520, up 20.6% within the day.
We are in a new age of cryptocurrencies, where BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA just gained the official backing of the US Government. This day has been in the making for months.
• On May 24, 2024, then presidential candidate Trump promised to launch a national crypto stockpile if he wins the election. Investors warmed to this idea and Bitcoin lifted 18%
• On November 5, 2024, Trump won the US election. Market cheered for the most pro-crypto president and Bitcoin shot up 57% in a month
• On January 23, 2025, President Trump signed the “Executive Order to establish United States leadership on digital financial technology.” Bitcoin went up 17%
• Recent events have brought bitcoin down 28% since reaching its all-time-high of $109,241. In a matter of two tweets, the crypto market has completely turned around
Bitcoin for the Long Haul
A year ago, I published this market commentary, “A Bitcoin Bull Run?”, and laid out the key drivers for bitcoin’s long-term rise.
Limited supply, increased demand and excessive liquidity helped bitcoin prices doubled in a year. In my opinion, these tailwinds remains intact for bitcoin in the coming months. On top of these, we now have the explicit endorsement from a sitting US president. Therefore, I stay bullish for holding bitcoin for the long haul.
Trading with Micro Bitcoin Futures
On “HODL with a Twist”, published on May 6, 2024, I explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( LSE:MBT ). This strategy worked nicely in the past, and I favor to continue deploying it. The paragraphs below provide a brief update with new contract months and new price data.
Firstly, using futures over spot bitcoin provides these compelling advantages:
• Capital efficiency in using margins. A trader could invest with as little as $2,075 to take on the full exposure of $9,431 (1/10th of a bitcoin)
• Futures contracts come with build-in leverage. For MBT, it is approximately 4.5 times (= 9431/2075). If bitcoin moves 10% in your favor, you could gain 45% with futures
• Price protection. MBT has a daily price limit (limit-up and limit-down) at 10%. In a volatile day with big moves, the Exchange will pause trading at the prescribed limits
Secondly, futures contracts have a limited lifespan that will influence the outcome of your trades and exit strategy. Micro Bitcoin futures are traded actively in the nearby March and April contracts. Liquidity in the back-month contracts has yet to pick up.
Rollover is when a trader moves his position from the front month contract to another contract further in the future, prior to the expiration of his existing holding.
Below is an illustration on how to hold a long MBT position overtime:
• In March, a trader buys (going long) April contract (MBTJ5) at $94,308
• In April, the trader enters an offsetting trade, going short on MBTJ5, to close his existing position. He would book a profit or loss, determined by the difference in selling price and purchasing price
• Simultaneously, the trader would buy May MBT contract (MBTK5) and re-establish a long position in Bitcoin
• In May, the trader will close out MBTK5 (going short) and buy June (MBTM5)
• The trader would repeat the above steps, so far as he holds a bullish view
Finally, Bitcoin prices are extremely volatile. Holding spot Bitcoin with no leverage could face potential drawdown of 70%-80%. With the leverage in futures, a sharp price move in the wrong direction could quickly deplete the available fund and trigger margin calls.
Trader could set up a stop-loss in the buy order, limiting the maximum loss. Hypothetically, he could set the stop-loss at $85,000 when executing long futures at $94,308. If bitcoin moves sharply down, the maximum loss will be $931 (= (94308-85000)*0.1). His margin account will be decreased to $1,144 from $2,075.
To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site:
www.cmegroup.com
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin CME Gap Wars continue with a Bigger New Gap- what next ?
Last week we saw the Bitcoin PA Drop down and begin filling that existing CME gap, that had opened in Nov 2024
CME Gaps ALWAYS get filled I said. And they usualy do
PA got down to 78600 and bounced back up. It had NOT completely filled the Gap, leaving a gap from 78600 down to 77920.
This is a small gap But significant in that the BTC Bulls pushed PA up before the gap was filled....waving 2 fingers at he CME.
CME Closes for the Weekend and the price at close on Friday evening was around 85345
I thought we were going to see PA turn and drop back down to complete the Fill..I even had a Spot Buy order down there..
BUT NO - The Bulls arrived again and BANG-
When CME opened for the New weeks trading, Bitcoin was up at EXACTLY 95K
This had created a NEW gap, with the remains of the older one just below.
And so now, Whats next ?
Since then, PA dropped to 91635, Filling a more recent smaller gap and has since then, pushed back up higher.
When will the Bigger new Gap get filled ?
We have a number of possible scenarios and I think my preferred one is that we revisit the Lower levels, Fill the Gap and at the same time, continue to cool off that Still Bearish weekly MACD., whihc, once at Neutral, will have more than enough ability to push to s decent new Cycle ATH in Q4
Another option is that BTC PA ranges high, for Longer and Cools off that Weekly MACD, till around June, Leave the gap open for a later date
OR, PA Simply pushes to a New ATH now, exhausts itself and falls hard after, filling the Gap as it plunges to 65K or Lower.
Take your pick
The MACRO side of Xrypto now is noce but I do worry about how this cold all just make Bitcoin rise to Fast and go POP at the top
We need to continue the Slow Steady rise, maintain a balance and act like Adults..Not like Teenagers with a new Bag of Sweets.
Be REALLY careful righ tnow, But MAKE MONEY TOO But remain cautious.
This Gap WILL GET FILLED ONE DAY
Gold trading strategy analysisGold rebounds from the fresh multi-week low it set near $2,830 on Friday and trades above $2,870 on Monday. Markets remain on edge amid the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and upcoming US tariffs on Chinese, Mexican and Canadian imports.
Xauusd sell 2876
TP1 2870
TP2 2860
Target 2830
NZDCAD BULLISH FOR 50PIPS1. Technical Analysis:
Trend: Check if NZD/CAD is in an uptrend on the daily or 4-hour chart. Look for higher highs and higher lows.
Support/Resistance: Identify key support levels where the price might bounce. A break above resistance could signal further bullish momentum.
Indicators: Use tools like RSI (Relative Strength Index) to check for overbought/oversold conditions. A bullish divergence on RSI could indicate potential upward movement.
Moving Averages: If the price is above key moving averages (e.g., 50 EMA or 200 EMA), it could support a bullish bias.
2. Fundamental Analysis:
NZD Strength: Look for positive economic data from New Zealand (e.g., GDP, employment, or inflation data). Stronger NZD data could push the pair higher.
CAD Weakness: Weaker oil prices (Canada is a major oil exporter) or dovish signals from the Bank of Canada (BoC) could weaken the CAD, supporting NZD/CAD upside.
Risk Sentiment: NZD is a risk-sensitive currency. If global risk sentiment improves (e.g., rising equity markets), NZD/CAD could benefit.
The latest gold price, rebound continues to be bearishGold rebounded in the early trading today, and the pressure test of 2930 was blocked again and rebounded, and retreated to 2905. From the intraday gold operation rhythm, it can be seen that the short-term market basically confirmed the effectiveness of yesterday's sharp drop. There is a high probability that it will fall again in the future, or even plummet and spit out.
Gold operation strategy: It is recommended to short at 2910-2908, stop loss at 2917, target at 2895-2890;
GBPUSD WHAT NEXT?The liquidity has been taken from the GBP/USD pair as expected, and the Market Structure Shift (MSS) has been completed. Now, the market is resting, likely consolidating before a potential move to reclaim the Fair Value Gap (FVG). We are waiting for the right moment to execute the next move, focusing on price action around the FVG for possible continuation or reversal setups.
I Am Sorry! Here Is a LessonI usually put out a single trade every day prior to markets opening. I do it because it is a fun way for me to share my trading knowledge with others for free. It is also a great way of journaling my thoughts. But I should have been better for all of my followers. The truth is markets have been kicking my ass since late December.
In a normal bull market, my trading strategy is to shoot first and react fast. I enter trades on price action after the Keltner channel is hit and pullback occurs. This can be on first entries, second entries, inside bars or even a complex pullback. Once in a trade I reduce risk quickly or exit a bad trade swiftly. Hence, "shoot first and react fast".
Markets were changing and I saw it, a repeatable pattern. I wanted to write an article before the market changed up but, never got the chance. More and more stocks were entering complex pullbacks. I believe I mentioned it in passing in some videos but never explicitly logged it anywhere. When we are seeing a lot of complex pullbacks in the broader markets it means that something is changing, pullbacks are going deeper. What was once strong is now weakening and that was happening before our eyes. I will link the complex pullback video and articles to this article for your viewing pleasure.
Today, I just went through all of my losing trades for last month and all of them had one thing in common. Not waiting for the right entry. The cycle low entry. In a pure bull market getting in on price action alone is completely sufficient but, with so much uncertainty everywhere, now more than ever we need to be selective. In steps the stochastics indicator...
The apology is a simple reminder to me that markets are tough, and real money is on the line. While I am providing the best information I can with the information I have at the time, it may not always be correct. That is why I don't offer signals and instead opt for trading ideas. Funny thing is, I think a lot more of my one good trade ideas beat out my other personal trades. Regardless, I hope you take this article and learn something from it. I know I have. The last thing I will leave you all with is this MA chart with annotation that is currently playing out. These will be the types of trades that I look for until further notice.
Good Luck and Good Trading.
~ JoeRodTrades
The Breakout Of Visa Stock + 3 Step System I have not been feeling well these past days hence why I have been quiet.
Am getting much better a a friend of mine
Gave me some oranges in exchange for avocados .
😏He got more avocado 🥑 compared to the oranges i got from him.
Anyway look at this chart.Notice that by using a CCI indicator you can see that the price has reached a breakout point
This point is called a New high
Also we are using the trend analysis system called the rocket booster strategy
The rocket booster strategy has 3 Steps:
1️⃣ The price has to be above the 50 EMA
2️⃣ The price has to be above the 200 EMA
3️⃣ The price should Gap up to a New high
-
Remember don't use any margin.
Rocket boost this content to learn more.
Disclaimer ⚠️ Trading is risky please learn risk management and profit taking strategies. Also feel free to use a simulation trading account.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-3-25 : Up-Down-UP Pattern CounterToday's pattern, and Up-Down-Up in counter-trend mode, suggests the markets will attempt to move downward after the open and attempt to retrace some (or most) of Friday's gain.
I do believe this downward price move is essential for the markets to build a moderate base before attempting to move higher into the march 11-16 topping pattern my research suggests will prompt another breakdown in price.
Ultimately, these moves up and down over the past 30+ days are establishing a sideways (mega-phone type) price structure that I warned was likely to happen more than 90+ days ago (back in December 2024).
What we are seeing right now is a rolling of price while uncertainty continues to drive capital away from technology, semis and innovation - moving into safety and security.
This will continue until July or August 2025, then capital will suddenly shift back into risk-ON in my opinion.
By the time everyone thinks the markets are breaking downward (crashing), that is when I think the markets will make a sudden shift toward growth and innovation as the US resumes a growth phase in late 2025 (carrying into 2026).
Currently, we are in a minor little "pause/rally" phase after the last bout of selling. This rally will likely end sometime after March 11 - leading to a breakdown in price starting between 3-14 and 3-17.
This is a trader's market.
Gold/Silver appear to have found a footing and seem to be bouncing. We'll see if Gold/Silver move above critical resistance and continue to rally higher.
BTCUSD has rebounded back to support/resistance, but has also moved into a new DUAL Excess Phase Peak pattern that suggests increased price volatility for Bitcoin. I still believe we are moving into a very side-range consolidation pattern for Bitcoin.
I suggest staying fairly cautious today and setting up some trades for the pause/rally I expect to carry through this week for the SPY/QQQ. No need to get too greedy on a Monday.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bitcoin (BTC): Sellers Need To Take Control / Looking For DropWhat a ride we had on a bitcoin, where the price touched our first target zone of 200EMA (which we had been looking for a long time).
Now we see that price has recovered and is back near the neckline zone, where now we will be monitoring closely the market structure development.
Ideally, we need to see the sellers dominance here and a full downward movement from here on so that's what we wait for.
But to be more sure, we have to wait for more clarity, as if we see the buyers dominance here to overtake, then a re-test of ATH will happen!
Swallow Team
SWARMS/USDTKey Level Zone: 0.0700 - 0.0710
HMT v6 detected. The setup looks promising, supported by a previous upward/downward trend with increasing volume and momentum, presenting an excellent reward-to-risk opportunity.
HMT (High Momentum Trending):
HMT is based on trend, momentum, volume, and market structure across multiple timeframes. It highlights setups with strong potential for upward movement and higher rewards.
Whenever I spot a signal for my own trading, I’ll share it. Please note that conducting a comprehensive analysis on a single timeframe chart can be quite challenging and sometimes confusing. I appreciate your understanding of the effort involved.
Important Note :
Role of Key Levels:
- These zones are critical for analyzing price trends. If the key level zone holds, the price may continue trending in the expected direction. However, momentum may increase or decrease based on subsequent patterns.
- Breakouts: If the key level zone breaks, it signals a stop-out. For reversal traders, this presents an opportunity to consider switching direction, as the price often retests these zones, which may act as strong support-turned-resistance (or vice versa).
My Trading Rules
Risk Management
- Maximum risk per trade: 2.5%.
- Leverage: 5x.
Exit Strategy
Profit-Taking:
- Sell at least 70% on the 3rd wave up (LTF Wave 5).
- Typically, sell 50% during a high-volume spike.
- Adjust stop-loss to breakeven once the trade achieves a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
- If the market shows signs of losing momentum or divergence, ill will exit at breakeven.
The market is highly dynamic and constantly changing. HMT signals and target profit (TP) levels are based on the current price and movement, but market conditions can shift instantly, so it is crucial to remain adaptable and follow the market's movement.
If you find this signal/analysis meaningful, kindly like and share it.
Thank you for your support~
Sharing this with love!
HMT v2.0:
- Major update to the Momentum indicator
- Reduced false signals from inaccurate momentum detection
- New screener with improved accuracy and fewer signals
HMT v3.0:
- Added liquidity factor to enhance trend continuation
- Improved potential for momentum-based plays
- Increased winning probability by reducing entries during peaks
HMT v3.1:
- Enhanced entry confirmation for improved reward-to-risk ratios
HMT v4.0:
- Incorporated buying and selling pressure in lower timeframes to enhance the probability of trending moves while optimizing entry timing and scaling
HMT v4.1:
- Enhanced take-profit (TP) target by incorporating market structure analysis
HMT v5 :
Date: 23/01/2025
- Refined wave analysis for trending conditions
- Incorporated lower timeframe (LTF) momentum to strengthen trend reliability
- Re-aligned and re-balanced entry conditions for improved accuracy
HMT v6 :
Date : 15/02/2025
- Integrated strong accumulation activity into in-depth wave analysis
Liquidity taken we looking for the next liquidity AUD/CAD looking at this hourly timeframe we can see clearly the market has taken the downside liquidity and we can see that on the upside we have equal highs(Liquidity).
On the higher TF like the daily timeframe we have a market structure shift higher, which confirms our daily structure to be bullish and the whole setup is confirmed by the 15 minutes timeframe break of structure higher.
GBP/JPY Sell Alert: Double Top Confirmation & Bearish Trend 📉 GBP/JPY Sell Trade Analysis
**Trade Setup Details:**
- **Sell Entry:** **189.500**
- **Stop Loss:** **Above 190.300**
- **Take Profit Targets:**
- **TP1:** **189.000** (+50 pips)
- **TP2:** **188.600** (+90 pips)
- **TP3:** **188.300** (final target, +120 pips)
- **Resistance Level:** **189.900**
#### **Technical Analysis Breakdown:**
1. **Double Top Pattern at 190.300:**
- This is a **bearish reversal pattern**, meaning the price tried to break above **190.300** twice but failed.
- It confirms a potential downtrend as sellers step in.
2. **EMA50 Trend Confirmation:**
- The price is moving **below EMA50**, which signals a strong **bearish trend**.
- This supports the idea that sellers are in control.
3. **Resistance Level at 189.900:**
- If price retests this level and **fails to break above**, it confirms further downside potential.
- If price **breaks above 190.300**, it invalidates the sell setup, and **risk management must be applied**.
#### ** Risk Management & Trade Execution:* *
- **Stop Loss Placement:** Above **190.300**, which is the double top resistance. If price breaks above this level, it indicates bullish momentum.
- **Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):**
- TP1: **1:1** (Risk 50 pips for 50 pips gain)
- TP2: **1:1.8** (Risk 50 pips for 90 pips gain)
- TP3: **1:2.4** (Risk 50 pips for 120 pips gain)
### **Conclusion:**
This sell trade is based on a strong **bearish double top pattern** and **EMA50 trend confirmation**. The **189.900 resistance level** is key—if the price stays below it, the trade remains valid. However, if price **breaks 190.300**, it invalidates the setup, and stop-loss protection should be used.
**📊 Monitor price action, stick to your plan, and manage risk carefully!** 🚀🔥
Copper Is Looking SexyI don't know why but the color of copper is soothing to me. Anyway, today we are looking at Copper which is RED hot for my reasons including seasonality which is coming to an end.
Here are some notes on Copper.
Daily Chart:
+ Top Keltner touch, complex pullback
+ Cycle Low
+ MACD momentum fast angling up (near 0) and slow > 0 (but flat)
+ Rainbow in play
+ price > 200
* Bullish seasonality until 3/6
* Squeeze starting in 195 min
Weekly Chart:
+ Weekly top Keltner touch
+ MACD Up
+ 10sma > 34 ema
+ price > 200
Monthly Chart
+ price > 200
+ 10 sma > 34 ema
+ Monthly squeeze with bullish momentum
+ Cycle low
Extra Notes
* Interestingly enough, copper shows strength in China and by default AUD because of trade.
* Shows strength in global economy, when copper is doing well, the world is usually growing.
NIFTY : Intraday Trading levels and Plan for 04-Mar-2025
This analysis provides a comprehensive trading plan for the NIFTY 50 index on March 4, 2025, covering all possible opening scenarios. We will evaluate Gap-Up, Flat, and Gap-Down openings (with gaps of 100+ points) and outline clear action points, key levels, and risk management strategies. This plan is designed to help traders navigate the market with precision and discipline. 📈🔍
🔹 Scenario 1: Gap-Up Opening (100+ points)
If NIFTY 50 opens above 22,142 (a gap of 100+ points from the previous close of 22,042), it signals strong bullish momentum. This opening suggests a potential breakout from the current consolidation range, indicating aggressive buying interest.
If the price sustains above 22,142, it could target the resistance zone of 22,300–22,460. This zone is a profit-booking area where selling pressure may intensify due to historical resistance and recent highs.
If the price faces rejection at 22,300–22,460, a reversal trade could be considered, targeting a pullback to 22,118–22,042 (opening support/consolidation zone and previous close).
Should the price break above 22,460 with strong momentum (e.g., high volume and bullish candlestick patterns), we might see a rally toward 22,600 or higher.
✅ Trade Plan:
✔️ Buy on a breakout and retest of 22,142 , targeting 22,300–22,460. Use a stop-loss below 22,042 to manage risk.
✔️ Short if the price rejects 22,300–22,460, aiming for 22,118–22,042. Place a stop-loss above 22,460 to limit potential losses.
Explanation: A Gap-Up opening of 100+ points indicates a potential breakout from the 21,889–21,600 consolidation range. Waiting for a retest of 22,142 confirms bullish intent, while the resistance at 22,300–22,460 acts as a natural profit-taking zone. A rejection at this level could signal a shorting opportunity if bearish momentum resurfaces.
🔹 Scenario 2: Flat Opening (Near 22,042–22,118)
If NIFTY 50 opens within the range of 22,042–22,118, it suggests a balanced market continuing its consolidation phase with no clear directional bias. This zone acts as a critical opening support/resistance area.
A breakout above 22,118 could drive prices toward 22,300–22,460, signaling bullish momentum and a possible trend reversal.
A breakdown below 22,042 might lead to selling pressure, targeting 21,889 (first buyer’s support) or even 21,613–21,600 (possible bottom-out level).
✅ Trade Plan:
✔️ Buy above 22,118 , targeting 22,300–22,460. Use a stop-loss below 22,042 to protect against a false breakout.
✔️ Sell below 22,042 , targeting 21,889 or 21,613–21,600. Set a stop-loss above 22,118 to manage downside risk.
Explanation: A Flat opening within the 22,042–22,118 range indicates the market is still consolidating, a no-trade zone unless a breakout occurs. Traders should wait for clear price action (e.g., strong candlestick patterns or increased volume) to confirm a breakout above 22,118 for a bullish move or a breakdown below 22,042 for a bearish move, avoiding premature entries.
🔹 Scenario 3: Gap-Down Opening (100+ points)
If NIFTY 50 opens below 21,942 (a gap of 100+ points from the previous close of 22,042), it signals bearish sentiment and potential weakness, testing the lower support levels.
Immediate support lies at 21,889 (first buyer’s support). If this holds, a pullback toward 22,042–22,118 could occur.
If 21,889 breaks with strong selling pressure, expect further downside toward 21,613–21,600 (possible bottom-out level for a reversal).
✅ Trade Plan:
✔️ Buy near 21,889 , targeting a pullback to 22,042–22,118. Use a stop-loss below 21,600 to limit risk.
✔️ Short below 21,889 , targeting 21,613–21,600. Place a stop-loss above 21,889 to protect against a quick recovery.
Explanation: A Gap-Down opening of 100+ points suggests continued downward pressure, but support at 21,889 could trigger a rebound if it holds. Waiting for confirmation near 21,889 ensures the price isn’t just oversold, while a break below this level confirms bearish momentum for shorting. The 21,613–21,600 zone is a critical level for a potential reversal if buying interest emerges.
📌 Risk Management Tips for Options Trading 💡
🛑 Always Use a Strict Stop-Loss: Protect your capital by setting stop-loss orders at key support/resistance levels to limit potential losses.
🎯 Take Partial Profits: Lock in gains at intermediate targets (e.g., 22,300 or 21,889) to secure profits while allowing room for further moves.
🕰️ Avoid Overtrading: Stick to the plan and wait for clear price action confirmation—don’t force trades in uncertain conditions.
💰 Use Proper Position Sizing: Risk only a small percentage of your capital (e.g., 1–2%) per trade to ensure longevity in the market.
📌 Summary & Conclusion 🎯
✔️ Bullish Above: 22,118 → Target: 22,300–22,460.
✔️ Bearish Below: 22,042 → Target: 21,889 or 21,613–21,600.
✔️ No Trade Zone: 22,042–22,118 (Wait for a breakout).
Trade with discipline, follow your plan, and prioritize risk management to navigate the NIFTY 50 market effectively on March 4, 2025. 🚀
⚠️ Disclaimer
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading decisions. 📉📈