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Bear Swing Ends, Bullish Setup Begins - Here's what's next...Bear Swing Ends, Bullish Setup Begins – Here’s What’s Next | SPX Market Analysis 03 Mar 2025 Last week’s bear swing trade wrapped up beautifully, moving from range highs to range lows, before Friday delivered the perfect reversal. Price tagged the lower Bollinger Band, turned with multiple bullish pulse bars, and gave us a classic V-shaped price action entry—the perfect signal to exit the last bear trades and start the bullish swing. Now, I’m targeting 6,000 and 6,140, with hedge/bear triggers set below the recent lows. Meanwhile, Trump just dropped a bombshell over the weekend, hinting at a U.S. crypto reserve backed by five tokens. Could this inject some extra spice into the markets this week? Let’s dive in. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The bear swing from last week completed as expected, moving from the larger range highs to the range lows, where Friday delivered a clean reversal setup. 📌 The Trade Setup – The Bullish Turn is In Price tagged the lower Bollinger Band – a key reversal zone Multiple bullish pulse bars confirmed momentum shift A V-shaped price action entry signaled the start of the bullish swing Exited the last bear trades as the trend flipped 📌 Bullish Program & Market Structure Now targeting: Smaller range low from last week’s 30-min chart Major resistance at 6,000 and 6,140 Hedge/bear triggers set below recent lows to manage risk 📌 Market News – Trump’s Crypto Reserve Idea Over the weekend, Trump hinted at a U.S. crypto reserve backed by five tokens This could spark volatility as traders absorb the implications Will this push risk-on sentiment higher, or cause unexpected market shakeups? The bullish program is in full motion, and I’ll be watching how price reacts at key levels this week while keeping an eye on how the market digests the crypto reserve news. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2010, a Bitcoin developer bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC, now worth over $500 million—marking the first recorded Bitcoin transaction for goods. 💡 The Lesson? Markets evolve fast, and what seems trivial today could be worth millions in the future. With Trump hinting at a U.S. crypto reserve, could we be at the start of another major shift in financial history?
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
EURNZD EXTENDS RALLY FOLLOWING EUROZONE INFLATION DATA RELEASEThe annual inflation rate in the Euro Area slowed to 2.4% in February 2025, down from 2.5% in January, which was a six-month high. However, it remained slightly above market expectations of 2.3%, according to a preliminary estimate. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also declined to 2.6%, slightly surpassing forecasts of 2.5% but reaching its lowest level since January 2022. In response, EURNZD surged higher, extending its gains from last week. However, the pair encountered minor resistance near a six-month high of 1.8648. According to technical analysts, this level is likely to hold, potentially leading to a slight pullback before the next move unfolds, but if the level doesn’t hold, then the next potential target to the upside would be 1.8800 UP COMING CATALYST: For the remainder of the week, markets are gearing up for a series of high-impact events that could shake up volatility. The action kicks off with a speech from the RBNZ Governor on Thursday, March 6, at 12:30 AM GMT+4, setting the stage for market sentiment. Shortly after, attention shifts to the Euro Summit, where policymakers will navigate key economic discussions. Later that day, all eyes will be on the Eurozone’s main refinancing rate, widely expected to be cut by 25bps, followed by a press release that could set the tone for future monetary policy. With this major speeches and policy decisions unfolding, markets could see heightened volatility bringing both risks and opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on the momentum. LEVELS TO WATCH OUT FOR THE WEEK: To the upside, buyers will likely aim to break the 1.8648 resistance level, paving the way for a move toward the psychological levels of 1.8800 and 1.9000. On the downside, sellers will be targeting key support levels, potentially looking for a retracement if momentum shifts in their favor towards 1.8412, 1.8221, 1.8000 and 1.7789 breakout of these levels are not ruled out.
by CFI
EURGBP Bearish trend continuationThe EUR/GBP currency pair remains in a bearish trend, with price action aligning with the longer-term prevailing downtrend. However, short-term moves could see a corrective bounce before resuming the dominant trend. Bearish Scenario: The key level to watch is 0.8274, which serves as a crucial resistance zone. A potential oversold rally toward 0.8274 may result in a bearish rejection, reinforcing the downside trend. If selling pressure resumes from this level, the next targets are 0.8240, followed by 0.8225, with 0.8200 acting as a longer-term support. Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above 0.8274 on a daily close would challenge the bearish outlook. This could trigger further upside momentum, leading to a test of 0.8290, followed by 0.8305 if bullish momentum strengthens. A sustained move above 0.8305 could signal a broader shift in trend dynamics. Conclusion: The overall sentiment remains bearish, but an oversold bounce toward 0.8274 could provide a fresh shorting opportunity if rejection occurs. However, a break above 0.8274 and a daily close beyond this level would open the door for further upside. Traders should watch price action around this key resistance zone to confirm the next directional move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Bitcoin, Mind The Gap (85,720) The massive move initiated from Trumps tweet Sunday about the Crypto Strategic Reserve has left a massive gap on the Bitcoin Futures Chart. Gaps tend to get fill sooner rather than later, with a high 90% hit rate on gaps getting filled. We could see a pullback this week to fill the gap with another run up following back above 90k to save the weekly close ... again. We see confluence with the golden pocket (0.6128 - 0.65 Fib) here on that retracement and also the most amount of volume (VPVR) being traded there. A final test of the demand below 90k, which if shown as support, will lead us back into the range of 90k to 110k.
CME:BTC1!
by Mamocoin
GBPUSD ANALYSIS *GBP/USD Analysis* The GBP/USD pair has regained the 1.2600 level, driven by the US Dollar's weakness. This weakness is due to: - Risk appetite: Investors are becoming more confident and taking on more risk. - Ukraine conflict: A potential truce in the Ukraine conflict is also contributing to the US Dollar's weakness. However, the pair's upside is limited by: - Looming US tariffs: The US is planning to impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, as well as Chinese goods. - Geopolitical updates: Ongoing tensions between the US and other countries are also limiting the pair's upside. *Resistance and Support Levels* The pair is facing resistance at: - 1.2600: A key psychological level. - 1.2650: The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). - 1.2700-1.2710: A key resistance zone. The pair has support at: - 1.2560: The 100-period SMA and a Fibonacci retracement level. - 1.2500: A key psychological level. - 1.2475: The 200-period SMA and a Fibonacci retracement level.
Short
by Expert_Travis
GBPAUD Bullish breakout The GBPAUD currency pair maintains a bullish sentiment, supported by a longer-term uptrend. Recent price action has confirmed a breakout above a key level, but the possibility of a retracement remains, making it crucial to assess both bullish and bearish scenarios. Key Levels to Watch Resistance Levels: 2.030, 2.040, 2.056 Support Levels: 2.010, 1.9927, 1.9770, 1.9620 Bullish Scenario If GBPAUD sustains price action above the 2.010 breakout level, it could signal strong bullish momentum. A successful retest of this level as support may provide a foundation for further upside, with key resistance targets at 2.030, followed by 2.040 and ultimately 2.056 in the longer term. Bearish Scenario A failure to hold above 2.010, followed by a confirmed breakdown and daily close below this level, would weaken the bullish outlook. In this scenario, selling pressure could intensify, leading to downside targets at 1.9927, with further retracement potential toward 1.9770 and 1.9620 over an extended timeframe. Conclusion GBPAUD remains in a bullish structure, but price action around the 2.010 level will be critical in determining the next move. A strong hold above this level could reinforce further gains, while a breakdown below it may trigger deeper retracements. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely for confirmation of the next directional move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Silver/USM2 Breakout Imminent?Silver has been languishing in terms of the fiat dollar for some 45 years. Recent record comex deliveries are hinting at something going on! Silver is actually very rare, with only four ounces above ground in recoverable form for one ounce of gold yet, and is being mined at less than a ten to one ratio with gold, yet is trading at over 80:1. Retail investor demand is down massively with over 20% less people buying since 2023, yet investor and industrial demand is some 7% higher each year. Mining supply can only meet some 85% of demand. This could be the stealth or accumulation phase. Silver has been a monetary metal for some 5000 years, and has typically held some 8-10% more purchasing power than today. Less than 1 in 200 investors hold any silver, and with only some 2-3 billion ounces available, a sudden spike in interest could see this evaporate instantly.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Shauns_Trading
BTC/USD Short Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Bitstamp)📍Currently, Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential rebound, but technicals suggest we are not yet at a confirmed reversal. We can see how BTC has recently broken below the ascending channel hitting a low of $78,000 which was very close to out $75,000 target. While it is possible for a sharp rejection up and beyond previous highs, it is unlikely. We anticipate that Bitcoin is testing the broken channel as resistance before falling lower towards our $75,000 target over a period of months (potentially 6 months) consolidating in an tighter range until a direction is determined. This latest move upwards by Bitcoin and the trailing market is the result of the Trumps crypto reserve statement. The market seen a surge after his remarks, but this will be short lived because nothing has actually changed: Size of the Reserve: No official size has been confirmed, but proposals vary. Senator Cynthia Lummis suggests acquiring 1 million Bitcoins over 20 years (about 5% of total supply). Trump’s March 2, 2025, announcement named Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) for inclusion but didn’t specify amounts. The government currently holds ~200,000 Bitcoins (worth ~$18–21 billion) from law enforcement seizures, which could form the basis of the reserve. Timeline for Filling the Reserve: Lummis’ proposal outlines a 20-year timeline to acquire 1 million Bitcoins (200,000 per year). Trump’s January 2025 executive order tasked a working group with evaluating the reserve within 180 days (by July 2025), but no specific timeline for filling it was provided. Posts on X speculate on faster timelines, but these lack official confirmation and are inconclusive. Is It Actually Going to Happen? The proposal is still exploratory, not finalized. Trump’s executive order and March 2 announcement show intent, but congressional approval is likely needed for major purchases or funding beyond seized assets. Experts like Nic Carter (via web sources) doubt a “true” reserve will pass Congress due to economic and political opposition. Posts on X show mixed sentiment—some bullish, others skeptical—but no definitive action has occurred. Can Trump Make This Happen Unilaterally? No, Trump cannot create or fund a large-scale reserve alone. The executive order allows evaluating and potentially using seized assets (~200,000 Bitcoins), but expanding it (e.g., to 1 million Bitcoins) requires congressional legislation and funding. Some argue the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund could be used, but legal experts and posts on X suggest significant hurdles remain, including Federal Reserve and congressional oversight. This push in price is driven by hype, fomo and retail traders not understanding the market. Current Outlook: Risk/Reward = 1:12.5 📉 Bearish Scenario (Anticipated outcome) - ❌ Invalidation Level: Above $100,000 - 🔻 Downside Targets: Bitcoin appears to be testing the recent break of the parallel channel. We expect to see Bitcoin fall to test previous structure high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib at $75,000. ✅ Justification: - Bitcoin remains in a long-term bullish trend, however given the recent break below the parallel channel, we are currently still bearish whilst it remains below $100,000. - Bitcoin / the market have seen strong bullish moves since Trump became president, with "positive" news coming frequently. However, upon deeper inspection, this positive news lacks sustenance, and will likely be deflationary over the coming weeks and months as traders begin to realise that nothing has changed. ⚡ Key Takeaways: - 🔹 Bitcoin has broken the parallel channel to the downside, hinting at a potential further drop. - 🔹 The recent break of the channel is usually followed by a test of broken support, to be confirmed as resistance before falling lower. We believe this is what we are seeing now. - 🔹 Bitcoin still remains in a long-term bullish direction, so we will take shorts when appropriate, with tight stops at invalidation levels mentioned above. - 🔹 Expect price to fall from here, down towards $75,000 over the next few weeks / potentially months of consolidation. Bullish invalidation: - 🔹 If Bitcoin breaks above $100,000 we can consider a long, targeting $110,000. With a stop placed below the lower support of the ascending channel. We must wait for candle closes before entering. ❗Fundamental Outlook:❗ 📍The recent macroeconomic environment, including U.S. monetary policy shifts and global adoption of Bitcoin, has significant implications for its price. ❗1. U.S. Monetary Policy and Inflation Concerns The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates in early 2025, coupled with persistent inflation fears, has driven investor interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation. Lower interest rates or quantitative easing could further bolster Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value. ❗2. Institutional Adoption and ETF Inflows Major financial institutions and Bitcoin ETFs have seen record inflows in 2025, with companies like BlackRock and Fidelity increasing their exposure. This institutional buying pressure supports a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, as it signals growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in traditional finance. ❗3. Geopolitical Uncertainty Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as U.S.-China trade disputes and regional conflicts, have increased demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin, which are seen as immune to government interference or currency controls. ❗4. Halving and Supply Dynamics Although the most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in 2024, its effects on reducing new supply continue to tighten market dynamics, potentially driving prices higher as demand outpaces supply growth. Fundamental Analysis Conclusion 📍Macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional adoption, and Bitcoin’s supply dynamics create a bullish environment for its price. 📍Geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a digital store of value, supporting upward price movement. 📍Growing ETF inflows and institutional interest suggest sustained buying pressure in the near term. Outlook: Mixed signals for Bitcoin direction 📈Given the combination of macroeconomic tailwinds, institutional adoption, and Bitcoin’s unique supply characteristics, the fundamentals point toward continued strength in Bitcoin prices. However, many of these fundamentals on the surface appear to point towards the bulls, but we must be cautious of trading what you hear, vs what you see. Technically, bitcoin is bearish in the shorter term, unless it breaks back above $100,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Who-Is-Caerus
Analysis of Bajaj Finance Ltd (NSE) – Weekly ChartTechnical Summary: Elliott Wave Structure: The chart suggests an ongoing impulse wave (Wave 3 in green) after completing Wave 2 correction. Future projections indicate the completion of Wave 5 around 15,543 as a 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Support & Resistance Levels: Strong Support: 5,718.60 (highlighted in green) – a crucial support area. 5,292.75 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) – historical support level. Resistance: 8,739 (current high) – breaking above this could confirm a bullish continuation. 15,543 (Wave 5 target) – major long-term price target. RSI Analysis: RSI at 70.56, near overbought territory. RSI-based moving average at 59.41, indicating strong momentum. Key Observations & Potential Risks: ✅ Bullish Scenario: If price sustains above 8,739, the next major move could lead towards 15,543. Strong wave structure confirms long-term bullish potential. ❌ Bearish Risk: If price fails to hold above 8,739, a correction toward 5,718 – 5,292 levels is possible. RSI in overbought territory suggests a potential short-term pullback before further upward movement. Recommendations & Strategy: Monitor breakout confirmation above 8,739 for further upside. Be cautious of a short-term pullback, especially if RSI starts declining. Long-term investors can hold positions, while traders may wait for a retracement entry near 7,500 – 6,500.
NSE:BAJFINANCE
by Pushpmegh
CITI PHARMA-Sideways Trend for 22% & 35% gainShort-Term Outlook: The stock is bearish, as indicated by the RSI, Klinger Oscillator, and price action near support levels. Potential Entry Points: If the RSI starts climbing above 35-40, and the price holds support at 85.60 or 80.01, it could present a buying opportunity. Risk Factor: If the price breaks below 80.01, expect further downside towards 72.04 or lower. Confirmation Needed: Look for increased volume and positive oscillator movement before making bullish trades. Buy-1: 80 Buy-2: 76 Buy-3: 72
PSX:CPHLLong
by jahanzaibM
CCL Products (I) Ltd. (NSE) – Weekly ChartTechnical Summary: Elliott Wave Structure: The stock is currently in Wave 4 correction after completing Wave 3. A Wave 5 uptrend is expected once the correction is complete. Fibonacci Retracement: 0.5 level (~533.25) and 0.382 level (~605.00) are key retracement zones. The price is near the 514.65 support, a critical zone for a reversal. RSI Analysis: RSI is at 36.41, indicating oversold conditions. RSI moving average is at 47.50, suggesting weak momentum but potential for reversal. Support & Resistance Levels: Immediate Support: 514.65 Next Support: 347.30 and 227.38 (in case of further breakdown). Resistance Levels: 605.00 and previous high of 855.00. Suggestions & Possible Corrections: ✅ Bullish Case: If the price holds above 514.65, a potential Wave 5 rally could take the stock toward 800+ levels. ❌ Bearish Risk: If 514.65 breaks, the next strong support lies around 347.30. Final Recommendation: Monitor price action near 514.65; if it holds, a bullish move can be expected. Wait for RSI to cross 50 for confirmation of trend reversal. If price breaks below support, avoid long positions until a new base forms.
NSE:CCL
by Pushpmegh