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#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I know it’s an ugly chart, bear with me. Gold spent 2020 - 2024 inside a 570 point range and started the recent bull trend with the breakout in 2024-03. Since then Gold has made 30%, which is more than unusual to say the least. From 2018 to 2020 it made 50% but only because it lost 36% from 2011 to 2018. Market is much less obvious on higher time frames than I’d like. Both sides have reasonable arguments going for them. For bulls it’s that the bull trend is ongoing while bears could see the leg down from 2826 down to 2566 as the first in the new bear trend. Bulls would like a third leg up which could lead to 3000. Both are valid and that is why it’s most likely that the market will move sideways rather than trend big time to either direction. My favorite path forward would be a trend down to 2300 and then sideways inside a big range 2300 - 2600. current market cycle: Bull trend is ongoing until bears can close consecutive weekly bars below the 20ema, which is at 2640 right now. Could the new bear trend have started with W1 from 2826 down to 2566? Yes. Both can be valid at the same time. key levels for 2025: 2500 - 3000 (if 2500 breaks, 2300 would be the next big target below) bull case: Bulls want a W5 up to 3000. Easy as pie is that read and seeing it on the chart. Hard part, as always, is giving probabilities to it and as of now, I won’t make any. The market is in balance around 2650 and I would need prices above 2760 or below 2560 to have a stronger opinion about it. That’s short but all I have to write about it for now. Can’t make stuff up where there is none. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Bears see the move down from the ath as a W1 of the new bear trend which could lead down to my biggest bear goal for 2025 at 2200ish. Here are the big bear targets in order. First is the 50% retracement of the recent bull trend at 2500. It’s also the breakout price from the W1 high and the old ath from 2011-08. Second bigger target would be 2300 which is a measured move down from the bearish W1 from the ath, the 2023-05 high (breakout-retest) and it would close the big bull gap the market left behind. Third and final target, which is the most unreasonable one for now, is 2200 which is the 50% retracement from the whole bull trend since 2018. Invalidation is above 3050. short term: Neutral. Lower highs and higher lows. Market is in a triangle again and in balance around 2650. medium-long term: Will only give one above 2760 or below 2560. current swing trade: None
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
GBPJPY long DXY longLast week was a big week for GBP with interest rate freezing at 4.75%, although 3 members voted to reduce the rate instead of the forecast 1, core inflation has slowed up but still remains too high for now. The labour market proved to be balanced. UK's major issue still lingering is the governments autumn budget which has a lot of data to collect before we see the measure of their changes. Japan is showing high interest rates relative to the norm, but also boasts high economic growth with the annoyance of high labour costs. The move last week after the interest rate announcement will be completely retraced before the next move up. Another factor is the DXY which relative to the JPY moves inversely. DXY since the US election has been bullish and I can see it continuing, last week we saw a correction due to PCE data and now we have a free rein. GBPJPY long with targets of 199, 201, 204 support right now is 196.6, a move direct from here would be extremely bullish and a quick move back to 198-199. If we move lower than 196 invalidates my thesis. Idea is based around DOL at 199, trend continuation with fib 1.618 and FVG at 201. Support was prior news resistance level. This is not financial advice for anyone, its solely my take on predicting the next move for GBPJPY. happy holidays
Long
by PLaceUrBetsPlease
BTCUSDT: Broken Uptrend - Support Turns ResistanceBitcoin (BTCUSDT) has broken a key daily uptrend line, leading to a significant price drop and a subsequent retest of the broken trendline as resistance. This analysis examines the implications of this price action. Technical Analysis: Trendline Break : A well-defined uptrend line on the daily chart has been broken. This break signals a potential shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. Trendlines act as dynamic support levels during uptrends. When broken, they often become resistance. Support Turns Resistance : Following the break, BTC dropped to approximately $92,330 before bouncing back up. This bounce retested the broken trendline, which now acted as resistance around $99,550. The fact that the price was rejected at this level confirms the strength of this newly formed resistance. This phenomenon of support turning into resistance is a common occurrence in technical analysis. Current Price Action : BTC is currently trading around $95,000. The failure to reclaim the broken trendline suggests continued bearish pressure. Trading Considerations: Potential Downside : If the current bearish momentum continues, further downside is possible. Traders should watch for potential support levels below the current price. Invalidation : A break back above the $99,550 level (the broken trendline/resistance) would invalidate the current bearish scenario and suggest a possible resumption of the uptrend. Risk Management : As always, it's crucial to use appropriate risk management techniques, such as stop-loss orders, to protect capital. Remember : Do your own research before entering any trade. This analysis provides insights based on the provided information, not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you could lose money.
Short
by OMGiTzREALHASSAN
BTC POSSIBLE BUYThe market is currently testing the current Weekly Support area. Based on Daily TF, there is a hammer candle close. On the 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern. We could see BUYERS coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by WiLLProsperForex