XAUUSD M15 | Bearish Fall Based on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 3133.65, which is a multi-swing high resistance.
Our take profit will be at 3119.35, a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss will be placed at 3150.50, which is above the swing high resistance.
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Chart Patterns
EURUSD M30 I Bearish Drop Based on the M30 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.0800, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 1.0774, a pullback support.
The stop loss is set at 1.0827, a multi-swing high resistance.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Falling towards pullback support?CAD/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 104.27
1st Support: 103.54
1st Resistance: 105.58
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BTC Dominance V/S Other ALT Coin DominanceA comparative weekly analysis of Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and the dominance of altcoins excluding the top 10 (OTHERS.D).
Key Observations:
Left Chart (BTC Dominance - BTC.D)
Current Level: 62.88%
Resistance: Around 63.09% (marked by a red line and arrow)
Previous Support: 60.17% (red horizontal line)
Trend: BTC dominance has been rising and is approaching a major resistance zone.
RSI: 66.35, showing bullish momentum but nearing overbought levels.
Bearish Divergence in RSI: The RSI has shown lower highs while price made higher highs in the past, indicating potential weakness in the trend.
Right Chart (Altcoin Dominance - OTHERS.D)
Current Level: 8.19%
Demand Zone: Highlighted in yellow (around 6% - 8%)
Trend: Altcoin dominance has been declining and is now approaching a strong demand/support zone.
RSI: 36.15, indicating oversold conditions and a possible bounce.
Possible Market Implications
If BTC.D breaks above 63%, it could signal further Bitcoin dominance, leading to more capital flowing into BTC rather than altcoins.
If BTC.D gets rejected at resistance, we might see a rotation of capital into altcoins, leading to a bounce in OTHERS.D.
OTHERS.D is at a demand zone, meaning a reversal could be imminent if buyers step in.
The RSI on BTC.D suggests caution as it nears overbought levels, while RSI on OTHERS.D suggests a possible bounce.
Potential Strategies
For BTC holders: Watch for rejection or breakout above 63%. A rejection may lead to altcoin season.
For Altcoin traders: A bounce from the demand zone in OTHERS.D could be a good entry point for altcoins.
For Market Neutral Traders: Look for BTC dominance rejection signs and altcoin strength confirmation before rotating capital.
Would you like further insights or an updated analysis? 🚀
Wednesday, April 2, 2025: Logical Analysis + Technical AnalysisHello traders,
** **
What happened last night?
In the COMEX gold futures market, the open interest for gold saw a **significant increase** in one day, with an addition of 62,187 contracts. Among them, the April 2025 contract increased by 45,428 contracts, which is a very rare and even abnormal surge.
Why is this event considered "strange"?
1. **Timing anomaly**: March 31 is the CME's "First Notice Day," when open interest typically begins to decrease as investors either opt for physical delivery of gold or roll over to the next contract. However, this time, open interest not only did not decrease but actually increased significantly.
2. **Abnormal relationship between price and open interest**: Normally, as gold prices rise, investors choose to take profits, leading to a decrease in open interest. Yet this time, while gold prices reached new highs, open interest surged.
What does this mean?
The 45,428 contracts correspond to approximately 4.5 million ounces of gold, worth about $14 billion at current gold prices. If this is not a data error or operational mistake, it could mean:
1. **A sudden influx of new physical gold demand**: A large amount of capital may have suddenly entered the gold market, preparing for physical delivery.
2. **Demand for deferred delivery being activated early**: Some physical demand that was originally planned for deferred delivery is now being activated ahead of schedule.
The sudden surge in physical delivery demand usually indicates that gold prices will rise significantly in the short term.
However, there is another possibility to be cautious about:
Someone might use massive positions to create a "short squeeze" panic, scaring off short sellers and driving prices higher, only to reverse positions for profit once the market overheats. In other words, the current situation may exhibit characteristics of "baiting" traders, requiring careful attention to risk.
Additionally, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump is considering implementing "broader and higher tariffs" on all countries on April 2 (which is today) and "seeing what happens." Currently, the uncertainty index for U.S. trade policy is about 25% higher than during Trump's Trade War 1.0, and the U.S. economic uncertainty index has reached a historic high.
** **
** Insider Tips:**
On Monday of this week, during the Asian Tokyo session, gold broke upward, reaching a high of 3128.
This was a breakout from the consolidation that started during the European morning session last Friday and continued into the Asian morning session on Monday, with the highest point touching the extreme positions of FIBO EXT 1.27-1.414.
On Monday, it was suggested to wait for a 4-hour reversal signal before looking for a pullback to enter short positions in gold.
TP1: 3084
TP2: 3073
TP3: 3057
On Tuesday, crude oil experienced a brief pullback during the U.S. session, and the 1-hour chart showed that gold ended its consolidation after the U.S. market opened, resulting in a $34 pullback.
**Trading Plan for Wednesday to Friday:**
On the 4-hour chart, gold is likely to form a bullish reversal signal during the Asian morning session on Wednesday, with the candlestick stabilizing above the EMA. This indicates that the pullback in gold has ended, and the probability of continuing to rise is greater.
As long as gold remains stable above the EMA on the 4-hour chart before the non-farm payroll data on Friday, continue to go long on gold:
TP1: 3171
TP2: 3185
TP3: 3199
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
XAUUSD Today's strategyIn view of the fact that a large number of news items with a significant influence on the market trend are about to be released today, before the news breaks, we can conduct transactions within the established price range by adopting the strategy of selling high and buying low. In order to effectively control risks and seize potential profit opportunities at the same time, it is advisable that you keep your position within 20%.
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The gold 3100 mark is in danger!In addition to Trump's announcement of tariffs this week, there will also be non-agricultural data, so this week is destined to be extraordinary. This is also the risk that has been repeatedly reminded. Don't be blindly overwhelmed by bulls. You need to respect the market at all times. After falling below 3120, there is room for a retracement, but it is still unclear whether the overall trend will turn. This week is very critical. There is important fundamental news. It is necessary to confirm whether it will change the fundamentals. Only when there is a change will the trend turn. Pay attention to the 3120 first-line resistance on the top of the 4-hour chart, and pay attention to the 3100 support on the bottom in the short term. It is recommended to operate in the range in a short term.
Gold operation suggestion: short near rebound 3112-3115, stop loss 3120, target 3100
4.2 Analysis of intraday gold strategy4.2 Analysis of intraday gold strategy
Core logic:
Impact of Trump's tariff policy
If the increase in tariffs exceeds expectations (such as equal +25%), it will intensify risk aversion and directly push up gold.
If the magnitude is moderate, gold prices may correct in the short term, but they will still receive support in the medium and long term (policies slow down global economic recovery, manufacturing is under pressure, and safe-haven demand is solid).
Technical points:
Resistance level: 3140, the next target after breaking through is 3160-3180.
Support level: 3100, if it fails, look down to 3080.
Intraday rhythm forecast
If it continues to stand above 3120 and breaks through 3140, the probability of long continuation is high.
Long strategy
Entry conditions: Find a position above 3125 to go long
Target: 3160-3180, stop loss 3125
Short strategy
Entry conditions: Find a position to short below 3150
Target: 3120-3100, stop loss 3150.
Will the price of gold fall at night after it surges?Analysis of the latest trend of gold market: Analysis of gold news: Spot gold opened higher and moved higher in the morning trading on Monday (March 31), breaking through $3090/ounce and setting a new record high of $3127.73/ounce, with the largest intraday increase of 0.43%; COMEX gold futures rose to $3122/ounce, an increase of 0.25%. This market is mainly driven by geopolitical risks. Trump's threats against Iran and Russia have aggravated the market's risk aversion and stimulated investors to pour into gold assets.
Analysis of gold technical aspects: From the weekly chart of gold, after three consecutive weeks of steady upward movement, the current structure has formed four consecutive positives, and there is a lack of obvious pressure reference above, so it can only continue to be treated as a large integer range, such as the position of the 3100 mark, which is quite critical. At this stage, the short-term moving average group presents a perfect long arrangement, and the MACD indicator below is also in a golden cross state, so the bulls once again have a clear advantage.
From the daily chart of gold, although the latest inflation index shows the risk of rebound, it is more likely to be caused by the tariff policy. Therefore, risk aversion is undoubtedly the dominant factor, which also caused the gold price to rise to 3127. The current moving average group is an extremely strong upward signal. However, due to the certain distance from the current price, we should beware of the possibility of correction at the beginning of the week. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold recommends focusing on callbacks and shortings, with the upper short-term focusing on the first-line resistance of 3135-3140 and the lower short-term focusing on the first-line support of 3105-3100.
Gold hits new highs this weekThe 1-hour moving average of gold crosses upward, the bulls diverge significantly, the price fluctuates greatly, and both the rise and fall exceed 20 points. Risk control is very important now, especially avoiding leverage orders and operations without stop loss. The upper resistance is at 3145-3148, and the lower support is at 3120-3117. In terms of operation, it is recommended to mainly do more on callbacks, supplemented by rebound high-altitude strategies.
Operation strategy 1: It is recommended to buy at 3122-3117, stop loss at 3111, and the target is 3147-3145, and the target is 3160.
Operation strategy 2: It is recommended to sell at 3144-3150, stop loss at 3155, and the target is 3130-3120.
The gold bull market continues to hit new highs!In the 1-hour cycle, the gold price consolidated yesterday, and a wave of declines consolidated the support below, which is the 3111 line. This morning, gold once again broke through the upper pressure level of the oscillation range at 3127. The breakthrough is bullish, and we have to go long with the trend. In the one-hour market, gold directly broke through the new high in the early trading and continued to rise, and the 3127 line has turned into a support level during the intraday trading. If it falls back to the 3127 line again in the early trading, we will go long directly!
Overall, the short-term operation strategy for gold today is to focus on callbacks and shorts on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3150-3160 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3110-3120 support.
Short position strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 3150-3155, stop loss at 3162, target around 3135-3130, and look at the 3125 line if it breaks;
Long position strategy:
Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 3125-3127, stop loss at 3115, target around 3140-3150, and look at the 3155 line if it breaks;
Gold is expected to strengthen further before non-farm payrollsIn today's short-term operation of gold, it is recommended to focus on longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 3150-3160, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 3110-3120. All friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Short position strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 3150-3155, stop loss at 3162, target around 3135-3130, and look at the 3125 line if it breaks;
Long position strategy:
Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 3125-3128, stop loss at 3090, target around 3140-3150, and look at the 3155 line if it breaks;
The bull's charge trumpet was successfully soundedFrom the 4-hour analysis, the support below is around 3100-06, with a focus on the support line of 3086-94 below, and the short-term pressure above is 3127-3130. Keep the main tone of participation in the idea of buying on pullbacks unchanged. In the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and wait patiently for the shutdown point to enter the market.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Gold retreats to the 3100-3106 line for more, and retreats to the 3086-3094 line to cover more positions. The stop loss is 3079, and the target is the 3125-3130 line. If the position is broken, continue to hold;
Gold 1h Potential H&SGold (XAU/USD) 1H Analysis – April 2, 2025
Pattern Identified:
Head and Shoulders Formation detected, indicating a potential bearish reversal.
The neckline has been drawn as a support trendline, which, if broken, could confirm further downside movement.
Key Levels:
Current Price: $3,123.55
Neckline Support: Around $3,120
Target Area: $3,070 - $3,060 (Marked in purple)
Potential Drop: -1.32% (-$40)
Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 50.92, near neutral territory but leaning slightly downward, indicating potential bearish momentum.
Volume: Increased during the initial drop, suggesting sellers are stepping in.
Trade Idea:
📉 Bearish Bias (If neckline breaks)
Sell below: $3,120
Take Profit: $3,070 - $3,060
Stop Loss: Above $3,130
📈 Bullish Scenario (If neckline holds)
If price bounces from support, a move back toward $3,140+ could occur.
Buy above: $3,125
Take Profit: $3,140 - $3,150
Stop Loss: Below $3,115
Conclusion:
Gold is at a crucial decision point. A confirmed breakdown of the head and shoulders pattern could lead to further downside. However, if bulls defend the neckline, we could see a recovery toward recent highs. Watch price action closely! 🚀📉
EURUSD is RisingEURUSD has been moving sideways since the beginning of the week.
As long as it stays at these levels, the direction remains unchanged.
For entry, wait for a bounce or a reaction during news events.
The next resistance levels are 1,0913 and 1,0952.
On Friday, NFP data is expected.
The goal is to break the previous high!
GBP/JPY Entry IdeaGiven the multitude of the wick rejection on the 4hr timeframe, the consistent downtrend on the weekly and how price is returning to the key area, I am still bearish on price. I will be looking for any significant signs of rejection off the key area on the 15min timeframe, in which I will be going short.
Price is doing its "drop, base, drop" motion.
Should price break and close above the blue line strongly on the 1hr/4hr, I will be looking to go long as this would be a market shift.
POTENTIAL SHORT TRADE SET UP FOR CHFJPYAnalysis: Utilizing chart patterns, highs & lows, and impulses & corrections, the focus is on identifying a continuation corrective structure following a breakout.
Entry: The price has reached the upper boundary of a higher time frame (HTF) bearish continuation structure, approaching this zone with an ascending wedge on the mid time frame (MTF). On the lower time frame (LTF), a bearish impulse has developed, and we will be watching for a continuation pattern to pinpoint a potential entry point for the trade.
Expectation: A downward move is anticipated, targeting the lower boundary of the HTF bearish continuation structure.
⚠️ Reminder: Always conduct your own analysis and apply proper risk management, as forex trading involves no guarantees. This is a high-risk activity, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade responsibly!
BTC-----More around 83300, target 85000 areaTechnical analysis of BTC contract on April 2: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small positive line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was a single positive line with continuous negatives. The price was at a low level, and the attached indicator was a golden cross with a shrinking volume. In the big trend, the decline was very obvious, and the pullback was difficult to continue. The probability of breaking the previous high point was even smaller. Instead, it was easy to fall under pressure and break the low. This is the trend law, not speculation; the four-hour chart showed a pullback trend for two consecutive trading days. The K-line rose and fell after a continuous positive yesterday. The current K-line pattern was a continuous negative. From the technical indicators, the current correction will enter the second stage of the downward trend. The short-cycle hourly chart yesterday's US market rose to a high in the early morning and continued to fall in the morning. The current K-line pattern was a continuous negative, and the attached indicator was a dead cross. Then there is a high probability of falling during the day, depending on the strength and the breakout of the European market.
Today's BTC short-term contract trading strategy: Sell at the 85,000 area of the pullback, stop loss at the 85,500 area, and target the 84,000-83,500 area;
Gold market analysis strategyTechnical analysis of gold: From the market point of view, the trend has not changed. The negative line of the upper shadow of the single K line in the daily chart appears at a high level, which is a turning point. Whether a reversal can occur today will verify the validity of this K line. This wave of rise is caused by fundamentals and the atmosphere of the entire market. However, there is never a market that only rises and never falls. In other words, we do not go to dead short or dead long. Shorts only enter the market at important points. From a structural point of view, the rise has entered a symmetrical space in terms of time and span. It fell below the upper line in four hours, and the early high and fall were the same as expected. The structure has become weak short. The hourly chart is close to the upper line area and is currently running in a divergence, so the overall European market is still high and unchanged. It seems that gold bulls have not been able to go to a higher level with the support of the news, so gold bears may have opportunities at any time; gold is directly short at the current price of 3128 in the afternoon!
Gold fell below yesterday's low of 3124 support as expected, and came all the way to 3100. I have been emphasizing that gold will have a big retracement, but the current decline is far from enough. Gold will continue to fall. The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn downward, and gold may open up room for decline. The 1-hour moving average of gold has now formed a head and shoulders top structure. Rebounds will continue to be short. The market has weakened. Gold has not yet broken through the 3100 mark for the first time, but the direction of the market has turned short. If it does not break for the first time, I believe there will be a second attempt in the future. Then the bearish situation has been finalized. Long positions must be put aside first, because it is a bearish market now. Gold rebounds and adjustments can continue to be short. Pay attention to the 3128 line of pressure above. You can go short directly when it rebounds! On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to focus on rebound shorting and supplemented by callback long positions. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3138-3130 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3100-3083 line of support.
Short order strategy:
Strategy 1: When gold rebounds around 3128-3130, short (buy short) 20% of the position in batches, stop loss 6 points, target around 3110-3100, break to look at 3085
Long order strategy:
Strategy 2: When gold falls back to around 3083-3085, buy (buy up) 20% of the position in batches, stop loss 6 points, target around 3100-3110, break to 3120
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 02/04/2025Today will be slightly gap up opening expected in nifty. After opening if nifty starts trading below 23200 level then expected sharp downside upto 23050 level in opening session. Upside 23450 level will act as a strong resistance for today's session. Any bullish side rally can reversal from this level.