GOLDGold's drop from the strong supply roof of $2,785.40 today could be attributed to several factors
Technical Analysis
1. Supply Roof Resistance: The $2,785.40 level acted as a strong resistance, causing gold to bounce back.
2. Overbought Conditions: Gold's recent rally might have led to overbought conditions, making it susceptible to a correction.
3. Profit-Taking: Traders might have taken profits after the recent surge, contributing to the drop.
watch 2760-2765 and 2758 for 100 pip buy take home.
Chart Patterns
Zymeworks buying opportunity ?Following the major setback in 2021, Zymeworks has been actively working toward FDA approval for their drug, which they’ve now successfully secured. This approval could signal the continuation of an upward trend. I’m considering a buying opportunity around the $9 range. It’s also worth noting that they were listed on NASDAQ earlier this year. Let me know your thoughts!
Sable Offshore Corporation (SOC): A Comprehensive Overview
Acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Assets
In February 2024, Sable Offshore Corporation (SOC) finalized the acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Santa Ynez Unit (SYU). This asset includes three offshore oil platforms—Hondo, Harmony, and Heritage—and the onshore Las Flores Canyon processing facility in Santa Barbara County, California. Initially valued at $643 million, the transaction ultimately closed at $989 million, reflecting accrued interest and interim costs. The purchase was primarily financed through a $625 million loan from ExxonMobil.
The SYU was once a prolific oil-producing asset, responsible for 671 million barrels of oil from 1981 to 2015, when a pipeline rupture halted production. The remaining reserves are substantial, with 646 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) estimated, comprising 86% oil and 13% natural gas. Restarting operations, however, requires significant regulatory and logistical hurdles to be overcome before the January 2026 deadline, or the assets risk reverting to ExxonMobil.
Pre-Production Requirements
SOC must address the following key challenges before production can resume:
1. Regulatory Approvals : SOC needs federal and state permits, particularly from agencies like the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and California’s Department of Conservation.
2. Environmental Assessments : California’s stringent regulations require comprehensive Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) to mitigate ecological risks.
3. Infrastructure Repairs : Repairing the ruptured pipeline and ensuring compliance with safety standards will require an estimated $197 million in additional investments.
4. Community Engagement : Addressing environmental and community concerns is critical to gaining public and local government support.
Challenges Under California Environmental Laws
SOC faces significant obstacles due to California’s regulatory framework, including:
- California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) : Requires all projects to identify and mitigate significant environmental impacts.
- California Coastal Sanctuary Act of 1994 : Prevents new offshore oil leases in state waters but does not directly affect SOC’s federal leases.
- Recent Legislation : In 2024, Governor Gavin Newsom enacted laws granting local governments more power to restrict oil production and accelerate the decommissioning of idle wells.
The Game-Changer: Trump’s Executive Order
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a landmark executive order declaring a national energy emergency. This order drastically alters SOC’s prospects by overriding state-level regulatory obstacles. Key provisions include:
- Defense Production Act : SOC’s oil is classified as critical to national defense, granting the federal government the authority to expedite operations.
- Federal Preemption Powers : California’s environmental restrictions are deemed a threat to national security, allowing the federal government to override them.
- Military Construction Authority : SOC’s infrastructure is designated as a strategic defense asset, enabling accelerated repairs and upgrades under military authority.
Valuation Analysis: SOC’s Massive Upside Potential
Peer Valuation Comparison
Comparable mid-sized oil companies are valued at $20–$30 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) . SOC’s current valuation implies a mere $4.87 per BOE , significantly undervalued relative to its peers.
Stock Valuation Scenarios
Based on SOC’s reserves (646 million BOE) and the impact of the executive order, here are the potential valuations:
1. Optimistic Scenario :
- Assumptions : SOC restarts production by Q4 2025, oil prices remain at $80/barrel, and regulatory hurdles are eliminated.
- Enterprise Value (EV) : 646 million BOE × $30/BOE = $19.38 billion .
- Net Debt : $1 billion.
- Market Capitalization : $19.38 billion - $1 billion = $18.38 billion .
- Stock Price : $18.38 billion / 100 million shares = $183.80 per share .
2. Moderate Scenario :
- Assumptions : SOC faces minor delays, production restarts by mid-2025, and oil prices decline slightly to $70/barrel.
- Enterprise Value (EV) : 646 million BOE × $25/BOE = $16.15 billion .
- Net Debt : $1.2 billion.
- Market Capitalization : $16.15 billion - $1.2 billion = $14.95 billion .
- Stock Price : $14.95 billion / 100 million shares = $149.50 per share .
3. Pessimistic Scenario :
- Assumptions : Significant delays prevent production until late 2026, missing the deadline and risking asset reversion to Exxon. Oil prices drop to $50/barrel.
- Enterprise Value (EV) : 646 million BOE × $15/BOE = $9.69 billion .
- Net Debt : $1.5 billion.
- Market Capitalization : $9.69 billion - $1.5 billion = $8.19 billion .
- Stock Price : $8.19 billion / 100 million shares = $81.90 per share .
Conclusion
SOC’s acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Santa Ynez Unit presents a massive deep-value opportunity. With 646 million BOE of reserves , the company is undervalued at just $4.87 per BOE compared to peer valuations of $20–$30 per BOE. President Trump’s executive order drastically shifts the regulatory landscape, enabling SOC to potentially restart production before the January 2026 deadline.
SOC’s stock could reach $149–$183 per share in a successful scenario, representing significant upside from its current price of approximately $27 per share. However, risks remain tied to execution, oil prices, and potential regulatory challenges despite federal intervention. Investors should monitor SOC’s progress and federal actions closely.
GBPUSD Wave Analysis 24 January 2025
- GBPUSD broke resistance zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2555
GBPUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 1.2365, resistance trendline of the daily down channel from October and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from December.
The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active C-wave of the ABC correction (2) from the start of January.
GBPUSD can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.2555 (target price for the completion of the active ABC correction (2)).
Luxury ETF is breaking outThe Krane shares Luxury ETF was a novel idea to give investors the exposure to the Luxury sector. But with Chinese consumer weak sentiments and inflation in developed countries, the Luxury goods manufacturers had a bad couple of years. Recently the ETF has been breaking out of its 200 Day SMA. After all the 20-Day, 50-Day and 100-Day SMA spending significant amount of time below 200 Day SMA on a daily chart, the ETF has broken out of its 200 Day lows. It has recently had a good run with sizeable rallies daily. My assessment is that this breakout will sustain for some time to come
SOLANA NEEDS SOME CORRECTION !#SOL is in an up trend there is a same pattern in solana as gold in years ago i think the leadership of memecoins is in solana and bnb hands !
but for now IT NEEDS A BREAK !
there is an obvious bearish pattern in lower time frame that tells us a correction is indeed
check these out
MCHP Bullish Setup – 1:25 R:R with 3 Consecutive Doji CandlesNASDAQ:MCHP has arrived at a key historical support level, and we’ve now seen 3 consecutive doji candles, indicating indecision but a potential bullish reversal. The stock remains in a long-term uptrend, with the all-time high (ATH) not far off.
Increased volume suggests renewed buying pressure, offering an excellent 1:25 risk-to-reward ratio if support holds. After my stop was triggered this month, I’ve bought back in, confident in the strength of this setup.
This analysis is supported by the invite-only Trend Recognition Indicator by PattRec .
ES may not close high this fridayCME_MINI:ESH2025 is likely will not close above Thursday high today (Friday). If it is so, then we may see the test of Thursday and Wednesday Cash session Low, which are poor low, On Monday. but that shall be only a temporary correction.
ES fail to stay above Yesterday high and ON high today, but it doesn't show aggressive liquidation today. so, need more caution for shorting ES on Monday.
CME_MINI:NQH2025 also doesn't show any strength on Friday session one. for now, ha
Bloom Energy Breakout? 44 looks possible. As long as it closes today above that yellow line, (the old high), it's going higher.
Bloom Energy Corp. engages in the manufacture and installation of a solid oxide fuel-cell based power generation platform. Its product, Bloom Energy Server, converts standard low-pressure natural gas or biogas into electricity through an electrochemical process without combustion. The company was founded by K. R. Sridhar, John Finn, Jim McElroy, Matthias Gottmann, and Dien Nguyen on January 18, 2001, and is headquartered in San Jose, CA.
"BTCUSD Breakout: Bullish Momentum Takes Charge"BTCUSD Analysis: Bullish Momentum Emerging
BTCUSD has been trading sideways, consolidating within a defined range over the past day. However, a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern has now appeared, indicating strong buying pressure and a potential breakout to the upside.
Key observations:
Bullish Engulfing Pattern: This pattern suggests a reversal of recent market indecision, pointing toward bullish dominance.
Price Action: The breakout above the consolidation zone signals further upward movement, with the next target likely near resistance around $107,500-$108,000.
Upcoming considerations:
Market Volatility: As we approach Friday, some traders might close their positions, which could add short-term volatility.
News Impact: No significant fundamental events are expected to influence this movement in the near term.
This setup provides an opportunity for buyers to capitalize on the breakout, with stops below the consolidation zone for risk management.