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BTC - Analyzing monthly momentum shifts with the Stoch RSI!What is the stoch rsi? The Stochastic RSI (Stoch RSI) is a momentum indicator that applies the stochastic oscillator to the RSI, making it more sensitive to price changes. The Stochastic RSI has two lines: Blue line = the fast momentum line
Orange line = the slower momentum line How It Works: * Helps identify overbought (above 80) and oversold (below 20) conditions. * Crossing above 20 signals possible bullish momentum. * Crossing below 80 signals possible bearish momentum. Why Use It? * Reacts faster than regular RSI. * Helps spot momentum shifts and reversals. * Best used with other indicators for confirmation. Analyzing the Monthly BTC Chart Through the Lens of Stochastic RSI: A Cycle Comparison in this discussion, we’ll take a deep dive into the monthly Bitcoin (BTC) chart and examine how the Stochastic RSI aligns with previous market cycles, dating back to 2016. By comparing BTC’s historical price action with Stoch RSI signals, we aim to identify recurring patterns, overbought and oversold conditions, and how momentum shifts have played a role in past bull and bear markets. Understanding these correlations could provide valuable insights into where BTC currently stands in its broader cycle and what to expect next. Let’s break it down.   Let's dive into the bullmarket of 2016/2017: In 2016 and 2017, the Stochastic RSI on the monthly BTC chart stayed consistently above the 80 level, often fluctuating between 80 and 100. During this period, the blue line occasionally crossed below the orange line, signaling a short-term pullback. When this cross occurred, it was typically followed by a red candle in the next month, indicating a brief dip before the price continued its upward movement. This pattern appeared multiple times throughout the bull market, allowing BTC to make higher highs and pushing the price further up. However, the key turning point came when both the blue and orange lines crossed below the 80 level. This marked a shift in momentum, often leading to a significant drop in price or even a bear market phase. When the Stochastic RSI fell below 80 and remained there, it indicated that bullish momentum had stalled, and a potential reversal or prolonged downtrend was likely to follow. This was a critical signal for traders to watch during the bull cycle.   What happened in 2019-2021? In 2019, the Stochastic RSI on the monthly BTC chart quickly moved from the oversold region to the overbought area, reflecting a rapid surge in BTC’s price during that time. This sharp movement in the Stochastic RSI mirrored the fast-paced price increase. However, once the Stochastic RSI entered the overbought zone, the blue line crossed below the orange line, signaling a potential reversal. When this happened, the Stochastic RSI fell below the 80 level, indicating that bullish momentum was weakening. This crossover was a critical signal of potential downside, suggesting that BTC could experience a correction or even an extended period of bearish pressure. The decline in the Stochastic RSI below 80 marked the beginning of a phase where BTC faced increased downside momentum, leading to a correction in price for months. Later in the cycle BTC and the Stoch RSI went up to the overbought area ones again. When the Stoch RSI with the blue and orange line crossed below the 80 was the start of a prolonged bear market. What occured in this cycle? In the current cycle of Bitcoin (BTC), there have been three notable crosses on the Stochastic RSI, which offer important insights into market conditions. The first cross stayed above the 80 level, which typically signals an overbought condition. When the Stochastic RSI is above 80, it indicates that the market may be experiencing strong bullish momentum, but it's also at risk of becoming overextended, potentially signaling a reversal. However, the other two crosses occurred as the Stochastic RSI moved below the 80 level, which is generally interpreted as a sign that the bullish momentum is weakening and that further downside could be in play. The fact that these two crosses occurred below the 80 level suggests that the overbought conditions are being worked off, and momentum may be shifting to the downside. The last cross is still in play. The momentum is quickly turning to the downside while BTC is facing downside pressure How can we compare this cycle with the last ones? In the last cycle of BTC, there were two key crosses of the Stochastic RSI below the 80 level, both of which marked important turning points for the market. The first cross below the 80 level triggered a significant crash of around 70%, which was a sharp correction from the bull market's peak. This steep drop signified a clear shift in market sentiment, with the bearish trend beginning to take hold. The second cross below 80 marked the official start of the bear market, though it wasn’t as dramatic as the first crash. An interesting aspect of the second cross was that Bitcoin briefly made a slightly higher high before the decline, which might have seemed like a potential sign of recovery or a continuation of the bullish trend. However, this higher high was not sustainable, and the bearish momentum quickly took over, confirming that the market had turned decisively to the downside. This higher high can often be seen as a bull trap, where traders were temporarily lured into thinking the market was rebounding, only for the price to reverse sharply. In contrast, the cycle before this one was marked by Bitcoin staying consistently above the 80 level for the entire duration of the bull market. The Stochastic RSI remained elevated, reflecting strong bullish momentum and a prolonged uptrend. Once the Stochastic RSI crossed below the 80 level, it signaled the official start of the bear market. This transition from above to below 80 is often seen as a clear indication that the overbought conditions had been worked off, and the market was beginning to lose its bullish steam. In both cycles, the Stochastic RSI's behavior has been crucial in identifying key points where the market shifted from bullish to bearish. In the most recent cycle, the sharp crash following the first cross below 80 and the subsequent bear market beginning with the second cross below 80 highlight the significance of this indicator in forecasting major market changes. Meanwhile, in the previous cycle, the sustained time spent above 80 helped to keep the bullish momentum intact until the market finally reversed with that pivotal cross below 80. These patterns suggest that once Bitcoin’s Stochastic RSI starts crossing below the 80 level after an extended period of bullish movement, it’s a strong signal that the market is entering a phase of weakness and may eventually lead to a bear market. Conclusion: The current cycle shows similarities to the 2019/2021 cycle, particularly with the second cross down on the Stochastic RSI, which previously marked a local top. There is a strong possibility that this could signal a cycle top. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Youriverse
40
Bullish bounce for the Kiwi?The price is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.5761 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.5713 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 0.5831 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Falling towards Fibo confluence?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce tot he 1st resistance. Pivot: 143.94 1st Support: 142.19 1st Resistance: 147.13 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Could the price bounce from here?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 0.8507 1st Support: 0.8390 1st Resistance: 0.8727 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot and could revrse to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support. Pivot: 1.4155 1st Support: 1.3946 1st Resistance: 1.4309 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Closing multiple orders with ProfitAs discussed throughout my Wednesday's session commentary: "Technical analysis: The Price-action was once again seen Trading below the #3,152.80 benchmark extended decline where Sellers should finally prevailed and dragg the Price-action more than #57 points downwards (as was announced on one of my remarks lately that Gold always prints #57 point decline once the local High’s rejects the sequence and delivers the eminent rebound). Gold is dangerously approaching again the Higher High’s trendline of the Daily chart’s wide Ascending Channel, way above the #MA50 (aswell on Daily chart, representing in the same manner the Long-term Support zone) in Overbought waters, however every pullback on Gold is accumulation zone for new Bullish cycle." First order I have engaged was Wednesday's Sell order (#3,132.80 - #3,111.80) and I have continued Selling every local High's throughout yesterday's session as I announced possible Selling correction ahead on Gold. Technical analysis: Gold delivered Selling extension as I announced however it would be best for Short-term Sellers to wait for area to be engulfed, as today’s session will most likely represent the crossroads for the next Week, taking in consideration that one can never foresee the sequence until when Fundamentally driven rises and upswing (such as current one) will last and how Gold will digest today's session NFP numbers. Lagging upswing sequence comforted Sellers on it’s Intra-day basis, as Price-action was close to the #2-Month Bottom. The Price-action has altered the downtrend fractal near the Daily chart’s Ascending Channel’s Lower zone, as discussed on my latest commentary, with current mentioned configuration above representing former strong #1-Month Resistance zone. As long as this holds, there are Higher probabilities to reach the Hourly 4 chart’s Higher High’s Lower zone again on Spot prices however touch may be completed Lower depending on the aggression of the current variance. Technically, Gold should ease the Overbought levels, but on such Fundamental landscape (Bull bias), both sides are equally probable unless #3,137.80 gets invalidated to the upside once again. After all, on the Daily timeframe, the pattern is an healthy Ascending Channel which just touched the Higher High’s trendline and has a limit just over current structure, my main point of interests (depending on the impulse of the wave started early last Week). Above the #3,137.80, Short-term Selling pattern is invalidated and the relief attempt may be accelerated towards the Hourly 4 chart’s #3,152.80 benchmark. My position: After excellent week behind me, I didn't had to Trade the NFP however I will as I do expect downside surprise on NFP which could skyrocket Gold upwards coupled with Powell's talks.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by goldenBear88
Bullish bounce?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 21,518.66 1st Support: 21,157.88 1st Resistance: 22,031.65 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:DE40Long
by ICmarkets
Altcoins' Market Cap is About to Reclaim $1 Trillion..!Hello Traders 🐺 In my last idea about Altcoins' total market cap, I talked about the midterm price targets. Now, in this idea, I want to focus on the short-term volatility. As you can see in the chart, the price is already in a falling wedge pattern, and the target of the falling wedge is the top of the wedge. This means we are about to see a nice bounce in Altcoins, which could break BTC.D's upward movement and lead to a bigger correction. In my opinion, in this case, we can also treat this pattern as a bull flag, and the target will vary accordingly. If you want to know more about the price target for TOTAL3, you can check my previous idea, where I also mentioned my final price target for this Altcoin Season. I hope you enjoy this idea! Don’t forget to like and follow! 🚀🔥 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by Kiu_Coin
2
Crypto Sell-Off: Is Solana Headed for $80?Without a doubt, Solana was the hottest topic in the crypto market last year and at the start of this one—especially with the meme coin craze. However, after peaking near $300, the price began to decline in what initially appeared to be a normal correction. But once Solana broke below the $200 mark, things turned ugly, and the price quickly dropped to the key $120 support zone—a level that held strong over the past year. Now, it looks like Solana is on the verge of breaking below this support, which could trigger an acceleration toward $80, with the $100 psychological level as an intermediate stop. ________________________________________ Why the Downside is Likely to Continue 📉 Bulls Can’t Hold Gains – Short-term rallies are fading fast, showing a lack of real buying strength. 📉 Bearish Engulfing Candle – Yesterday’s price action printed a lower high, adding further pressure on support. 📉 $120 Breakdown Incoming? – If this level fails, expect a sharp decline toward $80. ________________________________________ Trading Plan: Selling Under $130 🔻 Sell Rallies Below $130 – Targeting a move to $80 in the medium term. 🔻 Only a Sustained Move Above $130 – Would shift Solana to a neutral stance—not bullish by any means. For now, the bearish pressure remains, and selling rallies is the strategy to follow. 🚀
COINBASE:SOLUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
5
HOLY MOLY! ARE WE IN A RECESSION? $TSLA $120 BEAR FLAG PATTERNA bear flag trading pattern is a technical analysis formation that features a downward-sloping flagpole, followed by a consolidation phase forming a parallel channel. This pattern suggests a potential sharp decline or continuation of the downward trend I also notice a head and shoulders pattern, as well as an inverse cup and handle. Everything points to $120. Sell/Short NASDAQ:TSLA right now with fact check: +brand reputation risk, high competition, loss of EV market leadership, cyber truck/ product recalls, declining sales with lower margin, stock volatility concern, insider selling, investors buy it based on expected future earnings rather than its current profitability. + potential stagflation, tariff war, slow economic growth, inflation, rising public debt, geopolitical tensions, ai bubble, and more
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by sej4974
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: SMC Trading point update This chart is a technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on a 4-hour timeframe. Here’s a breakdown 1. Ascending Channel: The price is moving within an upward channel, showing a bullish trend. Higher highs and higher lows confirm the uptrend. 2. Support and Resistance Zones: Yellow Boxes: Key support zones where price previously consolidated before moving higher. Red Arrows: Marking resistance zones where the price faced rejection. Green Arrows: Indicating support levels where the price bounced. 3. Current Price Action: Price recently dropped to a key support zone (around $3,050). A bullish reaction is expected from this level. If support holds, the price may continue the uptrend toward the target of $3,186. 4. Projected Move: The black zigzag line suggests a potential bounce from support. If the support level holds, price could move back up within the channel. Mr SMC Trading point Conclusion: If price respects the support zone, there could be a good buying opportunity. A break below the support zone would signal potential bearish movement. Monitoring price action around the yellow zone is crucial for confirming direction. Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow )
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
TGT Trade Idea –2025🚨 NYSE:TGT is shaping up with some juicy potential in this current market cycle 📈 🎯 Entry Points (Buy Zones): 1️⃣ $107 – Aggressive entry for early birds 2️⃣ $100 – Solid mid-range level with strong historical support 3️⃣ $94 – Deep dip buy for the patient sniper 💸 Profit Targets: ✅ $141 – First take profit zone ✅ $158 – Stretch target 🚀 $168+ – Blue sky potential if momentum keeps rolling 🧠 Risk Management: Always position size properly and consider a stop loss based on your risk tolerance. Nothing goes up in a straight line – keep your strategy tight. 📝 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. These are personal trading ideas based on current chart trends and market sentiment. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Stay sharp & trade smart! 💼📊
NYSE:TGTLong
by Robert_V12
4
AUDUSD POTENTIAL LONG POSITION Q2 W14 Y25 FRIDAY 4TH APRIL 2025AUDUSD POTENTIAL LONG POSITION Q2 W14 Y25 FRIDAY 4TH APRIL 2025 Could well be the only position to provide fun coupons on a successful week of trading. The concept is quite simple but does lack a few of our favourite confluences. If this was the beginning of the week, we would perhaps wait for a 15' break of structure but this takes away the Tokyo range fill confluences. We require a tap into the 15' order block, followed by a bullish move from the point of interest. This in turn we wish to leave behind a void and order block creation. In the same breath, we require lower time frame breaks of structure since the break of 15' would not then give us enough time on an NFP Friday for price action to pull back to the low point of interest and a move long. Lets see how it plays. FRGNT x
Long
by JCFRGNT
Non-agricultural gold is expected to fall sharply. On Friday (April 4), at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the highly anticipated March non-farm payrolls report, which put pressure on gold. Fundamentals: Today, gold is expected to fall sharply. The market continues to short at resistance points. Market volatility is expected to increase during the period. The long-short game of the US dollar index near the 102 mark will determine whether it can continue to rise. If it breaks through 103, it may further suppress gold and non-US currencies. Gold is looking for direction in the range of 3080-3100 US dollars/ounce. If risk aversion picks up, it may retest the 3100 mark; on the contrary, if the US dollar continues to strengthen, breaking through 3080 will open up downside space. The decline in US stock futures may continue until early next week.
TVC:GOLD
by AIan_Gold
2
DeGRAM | GBPUSD retest of the rangeGBPUSD is in an ascending channel above the trend lines. The price is declining from the upper boundary of the channel and has now moved closer to the lower boundary, testing the support level. On the 4H Timeframe, the indicators indicate the pair is oversold. The chart maintains an upward structure. We expect a rebound after a retest of the lower channel boundary. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
SILVER INTRADAY pullback to support at 3090Silver maintains a bullish sentiment, in line with the prevailing uptrend. Recent intraday price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially retesting the previous consolidation zone for support. Key Level: 3090 This zone represents a significant area of prior consolidation and now acts as a key support level. Bullish Scenario: A pullback toward 3090 followed by a bullish bounce would confirm continued upside momentum. Immediate resistance targets include 3266, with extended upside potential toward 3350 and 3450 over the longer term. Bearish Alternative: A confirmed breakdown and daily close below 3090 would negate the current bullish outlook. This would open the door for a deeper retracement toward 3028, followed by 2945. Conclusion: Silver remains technically bullish while trading above 3090. A successful retest and rebound from this level would support further upside. However, a daily close below 3090 would shift sentiment bearish in the short term, increasing the risk of a deeper correction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAGUSD
by TradeNation