EUR/JPY Technical Breakdown: Rising Wedge Breakdown + Target🔺 1. Rising Wedge Pattern Explained
A Rising Wedge is formed when:
Price action creates higher highs and higher lows, but
The slope of the support line is steeper than the resistance line.
This signals that buyers are losing strength, and momentum is fading.
In this chart:
The wedge began forming around mid-February 2025.
Price was compressing within converging trendlines.
After multiple failed breakouts near resistance (~165.50), the pair finally broke below the lower trendline, confirming a bearish breakout.
This pattern is considered reliable because it traps late buyers and shifts sentiment from bullish to bearish quickly once the lower boundary is breached.
🔻 2. Key Technical Zones
📌 Major Resistance Zone (~165.00 – 166.00)
Strong supply area; price has rejected here multiple times since late 2023.
Resistance was confirmed again during the wedge formation.
High volume spike noted near this level, followed by a steep drop—evidence of distribution and smart money exiting long positions.
📌 Major Support Zone (~156.00 – 157.00)
Historically held as a demand zone.
Previous bounces suggest it is structurally significant.
However, repeated tests can weaken the zone, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown.
🎯 Target Price: 153.433
Measured by taking the height of the wedge and projecting it from the breakout point.
Coincides with a previously tested level (support turned target).
Bears could aim for this level as a swing target.
📉 3. Market Psychology Behind the Pattern
As price climbs inside a rising wedge, volume often declines, showing buyer exhaustion.
False breakouts near the top of the wedge trap breakout traders, adding fuel to the downside move once price breaks the lower boundary.
The sharp selloff post-breakout is often driven by stop-loss cascades and aggressive short positioning.
🔁 4. Potential Price Path & Trade Plan
Retest in Progress: Price may retest the broken wedge support (now resistance) near 163.00–164.00 before further decline. This retest zone offers a high-probability short entry opportunity with tight risk management.
Immediate Downside Levels: 160.00 (psychological level), 157.00 (support zone), and final target at 153.43.
Bearish Continuation Scenario: If the pair maintains below the wedge and forms lower highs, it confirms ongoing bearish sentiment.
🛑 5. Risk Factors to Monitor
ECB or BOJ monetary policy shifts (rate cuts/hikes, yield curve control updates).
Risk-on vs risk-off flows, especially in times of geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks.
Intervention by the Bank of Japan to protect JPY from excessive weakening.
✅ Conclusion: A Tactical Short Opportunity
The EUR/JPY chart is setting up for a potential medium-term short swing trade following a confirmed rising wedge breakdown. With clear rejection from a long-standing resistance zone and fading bullish momentum, the technicals align for a move toward 153.43 over the coming weeks.
Traders should watch for clean retests and structure-based entries, managing risk around 164.50 with profit-taking at key support zones along the path.
