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S&P500 Rally Reached 200 EMA. Fundamentals remain bearish.SPY ETF (S&P500) has reached its 200 EMA at $294 (purple line). This is a significant level, as it may serve as resistance. If we break through $300, then the market may continue going up to $340. 50 day EMA (red) is close to crossing 100 day EMA (green) from below, pointing toward higher prices. MACD chart is near the top, but is still pointing upward. Based on technicals, the rally may continue. Caution may be a good approach to taking long exposure, as traders are selling into these rallies. The fundamentals remain bearish.
AMEX:SPYShort
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Gold Futures (GC): Consolidating Before a Break Out?Gold Futures (GC) chart has been coiling on a daily chart, trading risk-on along side with SPY (SPX500). The main trend for gold is up. MACD and RSI charts are pointing downward. Secondary lower top has been formed. Yet, prices are holding up. FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged at 0.25% was bearish for traders hoping for negative rates. However, facing high unemployment numbers on 4/30/2020 and $DXY decline, gold may appreciate further. Pivot point: $1727.50. If bullish price action, then potential move up to $1764 - $1800. If bearish, then potential move down to $1682-$1660, which should serve as support.
COMEX:GC1!Short
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Microsoft will be reporting Q3 2020 Earnings on April 29Analysts are expecting close to $36.9 bn in revenues for Q3 2020. This represents a revenue growth estimate of around 20% YOY. Microsoft is in strong position to continue its business uninterrupted even during COVID-19 outbreak. However, 20% growth rate was baked into valuations at the end of January, before economic disruptions took place. Microsoft’s own guidance for Q3 2020 is - estimated revenue of $34.1 to $34.9 billion, which is lower than analysts’ estimates of $36.9 billion. Given a backdrop of economic slowdown, it will be hard for the company to exceed, and possibly even meet these expectations. The price action on the chart shows a lower top at $180 per share vs. $187 in March and RSI crossed pointing downward. In conclusion, Microsoft will remain one of the strongest drivers on the market. However, all the expectations may have been already priced in.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
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S&P 500 Index: Emerging Pullback Facing Q1 2020 Earnings SeasonThe S&P 500 topped at 2885 level on April 16th, short of crossing to the upside 2900 level and failing to close the gap between 2920 and 2960 levels. It initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but lost its gains above the 50 day EMA. At this time, the market is looking for support at 2720 level, already below 2793, a 50% Fibonacci retracement level taken from the February top at 3397 to the March bottom at 2189. The next support level is near 2650 (38.2%). We can still go much lower from there, breaking through 2474 (23.6%) level, in the absence of positive news. As the market is pointing downward, a deeper correction may occur. However, “not so bad” Q1 tech and biotech sectors earnings may save the market from falling much further in the near-term. More so, a possibility of additional fiscal stimulus and active repo markets may play a positive role as well. We may even retest recent April highs at 2800 handle on additional stimulus and economy reopening news. NFLX and TXN are up in the after-market on good earnings reports. As some Q1 earnings look better, than expected, it is downward guidance revisions that may spook the markets to go lower, particularly in anticipation of low Q2 earnings.
TVC:SPXShort
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