The Symmetrical Triangle: Real Success Rates + Breakout.The Symmetrical Triangle: Real Success Rates + Breakout.
The symmetrical triangle is an important chart pattern in technical analysis, deserving special attention from professional traders.
This formation is characterized by a convergence of prices between two trendlines, one descending and the other ascending, creating a consolidation zone where indecision between buyers and sellers is palpable.
Statistical Analysis
Empirical data reveals that the success rate of the symmetrical triangle for a trend continuation is approximately 54%. This percentage, although higher than 50%, underlines the importance of a cautious approach and rigorous risk management in using this pattern.
Breakout Point
The breakout of the symmetrical triangle usually occurs when the price has traveled approximately 75% of the distance to the apex. This point is crucial for traders, as it often represents the moment when volatility increases and a new trend can be established.
Risks and False Exits
It is essential to note that the symmetrical triangle has a relatively high rate of false exits. Statistics indicate that approximately 13% of cases in a bear market can result in a false exit to the bottom. This phenomenon underlines the need for additional confirmation before entering a position.
Strategy of use
To effectively exploit the symmetrical triangle, professional traders must:
-Identify the formation accurately.
-Wait for the breakout near the point of convergence of the trendlines.
-Confirm the breakout with other technical indicators or an increase in volume.
-Put in place strict risk management to protect against false exits.
In conclusion, the symmetrical triangle, although being a valuable tool in the trader's arsenal, requires a methodical approach and a thorough understanding of its characteristics to be used effectively in a trading strategy.
Chartsneverlie
The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading.The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading.
When the ppix of an asset explodes and forms a very steep slope, the 45 degree line, also known as the 1x1 Gannangle, is an important and very useful tool in technical analysis, used to identify and predict market corrections.
Meaning of the 45 degree line:
The 45 degree line represents an equilibrium trend in technical analysis. It is considered an average support or resistance line, indicating a balance between time and price. This line is particularly important because it suggests a constant and balanced progression of the market.
Main characteristics
-Angle: The 45 degree line forms an angle of 45° with the horizontal axis of the chart.
-Notation: It is often noted 1x1, which means that it represents a movement of one unit of price for one unit of time.
-Interpretation: A trend following this angle is generally considered strong and likely to continue in the same direction.
Use in Technical Analysis
Traders use the 45-degree line in several ways:
-Identifying trend strength: A trend that follows or exceeds the 45-degree angle is considered strong.
-Support and resistance: The line can act as a dynamic level of support in an uptrend or resistance in a downtrend.
-Forecasting movements: Traders can anticipate trend changes when price deviates significantly from the 45-degree line.
-Multi-timeframe analysis: The line can be applied on different time frames, from short-term to long-term, for a more comprehensive analysis.
Integration with other tools
The 45-degree line is often used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for a more robust analysis. It can be combined with indicators, chart patterns, or other Gannangles to confirm trading signals and improve forecast accuracy.
In conclusion, the 45-degree line is a powerful but often underestimated tool in technical analysis. Its simplicity and versatility make it a valuable tool for traders looking to identify and follow market trends with precision.
The "Head and Shoulders": Real success rates.Inverted Head and Shoulders: WATCH volumes when the neckline breaks!!
Here is what we can say about the success rate of the inverted head and shoulders pattern in trading:
-The inverted head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns to anticipate a bullish reversal.
-According to some sources, the success rate of this pattern would be very high, with around 98% of cases resulting in a bullish exit.
-More precisely, in 63% of cases, the price would reach the price target calculated from the pattern when the neckline is broken.
-A pull-back (return to the neckline after the break) would occur in 45% of cases.
-However, it should be noted that these very optimistic figures must be qualified. Other sources indicate more modest success rates, around 60%.
-The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, neckline breakout, volumes, etc. A rigorous analysis is necessary.
-It is recommended to use this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly.
In conclusion, although the inverse head and shoulders pattern is considered a very reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60-70% than the 98% sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but must be used with caution and in addition to other analyses.
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Head and Shoulders:
Here is what we can say about the success rate of the head and shoulders pattern in trading:
-The head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns, but its exact success rate is debated among technical analysts. Here are the key takeaways:
- Some sources claim very high success rates, up to 93% or 96%. However, these figures are likely exaggerated and do not reflect the reality of trading.
- In reality, the success rate is likely more modest. One cited study indicates that the price target is reached in about 60% of cases for a classic head and shoulders pattern.
- It is important to note that the head and shoulders pattern is not an infallible pattern. Its presence alone is not enough to guarantee a trend reversal.
- The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, the breakout of the neckline, volumes, etc. Rigorous analysis is necessary.
- Many experienced traders recommend using this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly.
In conclusion, while the head and shoulders pattern is considered a reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60% than the 90%+ sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but should be used with caution and in conjunction with other analyses.
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NB: In comparison, the classic (bearish) head and shoulders pattern would have a slightly lower success rate, with around 60% of cases where the price target is reached.
The “Fan Principle” is a powerful techniqueThe “Fan Principle” is a powerful technique in trading, using trendlines to predict price movements.
Highlights
📈 Powerful Technique: The Fan Principle is formidable in technical analysis.
📉 Identifying Points: Drawing trendlines from three key points.
🔴 Trading Signals: Buy or sell signals can be identified depending on the pattern.
📊 Practical Examples: Analyzing price movements on charts to illustrate the technique.
💰 Profit Opportunities: Strategies can result in significant gains, up to 22%.
🛑 Risk Management: Importance of placing stop-losses to protect investments.
🔍 Additional Resources: Detailed information and charts will be shared to deepen understanding.
Key Insights
📈 Technique Effectiveness: The Fan Principle helps identify clear trends using reference points, making the strategy both simple and effective.
📉 Importance of Confirmation: Validating trendlines with a third point builds confidence in trading signals, increasing the chances of success.
🔴 Warning Signals: Sell or buy signals, as shown in the video, can lead to strategic decisions based on historical analysis.
📊 Visual Analysis: Visualizing data on charts helps understand market movements, which is essential for technical analysis.
💰 Profit Potential: Trades based on the Fan Principle can provide significant profit opportunities, highlighting its effectiveness.
🛑 Protection Strategies: Placing stop-losses above resistance points is crucial to limit losses in the event of adverse market movements.
🔍 Access to resources: The information shared in the description and on other platforms offers ways to deepen the understanding of the technique and improve trading skills.
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The fan principle in trading is a strategy that consists of opening several positions on the same asset at different price levels. Here are the main aspects of this approach:
How it works
The idea is to open several positions (or "lots") on the same financial asset at different price levels, thus forming a "fan" of positions.
These positions are opened at points considered as potential market reversals.
The objective is to let these positions unfold like a fan or to close them gradually according to the evolution of the market.
Advantages
Risk diversification: By entering the market at different levels, the trader reduces the impact of a single bad entry.
Movement capture: This approach allows to take advantage of different phases of a price movement.
Flexibility: The trader can adjust his strategy by closing some positions while keeping others open.
Complementary Tools
The fan principle can be combined with other technical analysis tools to improve its effectiveness:
Fibonacci Fan: This tool automatically draws trendlines at key levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) that can serve as entry points for fan positions.
Gann Angles: These lines, drawn at different angles (82.5°, 75°, 71.25°, etc.), can also help identify potential levels to open positions.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Some traders combine the fan principle with the RSI to confirm entry points.
Important Considerations
This strategy requires good risk management, as it involves opening multiple positions.
It is crucial to set stop-loss and take-profit levels for each position in the range.
Using this approach requires a thorough understanding of the market and significant trading experience.
NVIDIA: Bearish: Possible Head and Shoulders: Warning!NVIDIA: Bearish: Possible Head and Shoulders: Warning!
Hello everyone The Wolf of Zurich has detected a possible "head and shoulder" on Nvidia, which would bring the price down to around $42.
I have also drawn a trend line that you absolutely must watch!
The level to watch is around $98-98
Here, watch your Fibonacci levels as well as your exponential mobile means
Have a nice day everyone
Some information to know about Nvidia:
Nvidia, the world leader in graphics chips and AI, is enjoying a flourishing situation despite a recent drop in its stock price.
Here is a summary of its current situation:
-Dominant position in the AI market
Nvidia occupies a quasi-monopolistic position in the field of chips for artificial intelligence. Its GPUs, especially the H100 series, are essential for the development of cutting-edge AI systems and are selling at high prices around the world.
-Stock market performance
Despite a recent 9.53% drop in its share price, Nvidia has posted an impressive 120% increase since the beginning of the year and nearly 400% over 3 years. This one-off drop does not seem to worry analysts, who still see significant growth potential.
-Technological innovations
Nvidia recently presented its new Blackwell GPU architecture, with the B200 and GB200 processors. These chips promise performance multiplied by 5 compared to the previous generation in the field of AI. The company also reassured investors by announcing that it had resolved the production problems initially encountered.
-Future Outlook
With its dominance in AI training chips and its comprehensive software ecosystem, Nvidia appears well positioned for continued growth. The company continues to innovate and strengthen its position in the AI market, which suggests a positive outlook for the future.
LVMH: Bullish: Butterfly detected.LVMH: Bullish: Butterfly detected.
The price could go down to the PRZ zone indicated on the right chart: 512 to start, then 388 if the Double top plays its role.
This will therefore be a very interesting entry point for investors.
Below: Some information about LVMH.
LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy) is today the world leader in luxury and one of the largest French companies. Here’s a look at where LVMH stands today:
Recent Financial Performance
LVMH recently announced its third-quarter 2023 results, which missed analysts’ expectations
This announcement caused a significant drop in the stock price, which is down more than 20% from its record highs
Market Position
Despite these mixed results, LVMH remains the world’s largest luxury company, with a portfolio of iconic brands including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Givenchy, Kenzo, Moët & Chandon and many others
Structure and Values
LVMH is a family-owned group founded in 1987. Its primary mission is to ensure the long-term development of each of its houses, while preserving their identity and autonomy. The group emphasizes creativity, innovation and excellence in all its products and services. Corporate Strategy
LVMH's strategy is based on the vertical integration of its value chain, from raw material sourcing to selective distribution. This approach aims to ensure the excellence and sustainability of its products.
Social and Environmental Responsibility
LVMH is increasingly committed to ethical, social and environmental initiatives. The group places emphasis on adopting and promoting honest behavior in all its actions and relationships.
Future Outlook
Despite recent challenges, LVMH remains a solid company with long-term growth potential. , like any company in the luxury sector, it is sensitive to global economic fluctuations and changes in consumer habits.
WALMART: Bearish: Overbought alert: Impact on Dow JonesWALMART: Bearish: Overbought alert: Impact on Dow Jones
Be careful with Walmart as you can see cocoa and st microelectronic also rose to very very high historical levels and look at the correction that we had immediately after at least 40% drop
This action can have a significant impact on the Dow Jones
A strong correction could lower the DJIA index
I alert you on this I alert you especially on the notion of "stock market cycle" and "seasonality"
Walmart is overbought you just have to look at your technical indicators RSI, ROC, Stochastic, exponential moving average, Ichimoku, Fibonacci retracement.
We could go much much lower so be careful this action is overbought
Monitor your above-mentioned indicators.
BITCOIN: Double top possible + NAVARRO 200 bullish : Watch out!!BITCOIN: Double top possible: Watch out for 48,000 + NAVARRO 2000 bullish = 2 opposing patterns.
The Wolf of Zurich detected a possible double top on bitcoin
As expected, the 56,400 was reached perfectly thanks to my analysis.
The next levels are:
On the decline :
56,425 (again)
48,000
40,770
On the rise:
NAVAROO 200 bullish detected, and the price could reach $72,000 then $80,000
In addition, Be careful because there is a bullish divergence with the ROC!!
To watch the EMA 50 and 200, and the ICHIMOKU and Fibonacci levels
TESLA: Bullish: Inverted Head and Shoulders "in formation?! TESLA: Bullish: Inverted Head and Shoulders "in formation?! To watch
Concerning Tesla, as you can see, we are on the 38.2 Fibonacci of the decline from the historic high of $414 on November 4, 2021 to the low on January 6, 2023.
We are currently on the 38.2% Fibonaccio which is not a very high level; in the end. It is the "wolf of Zurich" who has detected a POSSIBLE "inverted head and shoulder" (inverted ETE); which if it becomes valid would give a first target around $245, then $275, and $307 (66% Fibonacci) and finally $400.
NB: I calculated all these levels in advance for you 'also thanks to Ichimoku.
So on an "inverted ETE" we are watching volumes and at the break of the "neckline" we enter the purchase, and we put our "stop loss" below the previous low, according to your currency management!
In addition, Tesla will also announce and present its robot taxi on October 10, 2024 so I think that at the macroeconomic level it will move.
Can you imagine such news, a presentation of the Tesla robot taxi, and nothing happens on the markets??!!!
I don't think so!!
However, if you currently want to short sell Tesla you can do so, and you can put a "Reverse stop" above the previous high, that is to say above the candle of August 16, 2024 around $234, for example.
Be careful on the markets
SP500 : Bearish : Similar patterns with the pastLook carefully at April 2005, October 2007 and Today. A "Sell Off" of 20% took place. History does not usually repeat itself, but in trading the phenomenon of cyclicals exists. It's just AMAZING! What do you think?!
In addition, the levels indicated are achievable in the medium term, 2-3 months;
In recent days, this is what happened at the macroeconomic level:
1-Jackson Hole
Result: No big impact on the markets: Dow Jones or techs.
2-NVIDIA long awaited:
Result: The action disappointed and went down
Minus 9.86% in total after closing and yesterday minus 6.38%.
Cause: Delay in the delivery of new chips, among others...
Will NVIDIA always explode the ceilings, while the competition arrives: AMD, GOOGLE, etc... with more efficient chips that do not heat up.
Technically the markets are OVERBOUGHT
so a return to the 38.2% or 50% of Fibonacci would be perfect for sellers, but also for buyers who would like to buy at a lower price!
I remind you that in trading we buy the bottoms and we sell the peaks!
GOLD: Bearish: WOLFE Wave detected + DivergencesGOLD: Bearish: WOLFE Wave detected + Divergences
The Wolf of Zurich has detected a Wolfe Wave on the XAUUSD.
The price could reach 242 then 2291
In addition, there are two divergences with the price: The ROC Rate of Change and the RSI.
To watch the exponential moving averages 50 and 20, as well as the Fibonacci levels
We have reached the price of 2520 that I will indicate
The maximum can be 3000. So be careful!!
TONCOIN: Possible "Head-Shoulders" under construction?!TONCOIN: Possible "Head-Shoulders" under construction?!
Detection of a possible chart pattern "Head-Shoulder" = "SUMMER" in Daily"
Monitor the " Nech line", and the Fibonacci and ICHIMOKU levels, as well as the 50 and 200 exponential moving averages on higher time units if necessary.
The downside targets are indicated on the chart.
We could return to the levels before the "Bull run"!!
Following the arrest of Pavel Durov, CEO of the company "Telegram Messenger", this news could accelerate the downward movement sharply!
Be careful!!
DOGECOIN: Rising wedge + R.O.C DivergenceDOGECOIN: Rising wedge + R.O.C Divergence
The Wolf of Zurich has detected an ascending wedge + A nice divergence on the R.O.C = Rate Of Change, which indicates the variation of the Momentum of the underlying.
To watch the 50 and 200 exponential moving averages
The Fibonacci and ICHIMOKU levels
VIX SP500: BAT and SHARK possibleVIX SP500: BAT and SHARK possible
possibility of a harmonic figure "shark" and "bat" which would bring the price to the levels indicated on the chart.
In addition there is a divergence on the R.O.C and the RSI.
monitor the Fibonaccio and Ichimoku levels as well as the exponential moving averages 50 and 200
CHARTIST TRIANGLES: HOW DOES IT WORK? ANSWER is HERE!ASCENDING TRIANGLE:
Identify the levels where the price has often closed and opened (black line).
The price is making higher and higher lows.
Draw a bullish diagonal.
Take Profit is calculated by plotting the lowest increase on the black line (see graph).
Report this segment to the BREAK of the black line, but ESPECIALLY to the CLOSING of the candle in its time unit!!!
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DESCENDING TRIANGLE:
Identify the levels where the price has often closed and opened (black line).
The price makes higher and lower highs.
Draw a bullish diagonal.
Take Profit is calculated by plotting the highest drop on the black line (see graph).
Report this segment to the BREAK of the black line, but ESPECIALLY to the CLOSING of the candle in its time unit!!!
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SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE:
The triangle of indecision, just like the RANGE!!
The price is tightening, and we don't know in which direction it's going PETER!!??
Draw a bullish and bearish diagonal.
Wait for a break in one of the diagonals.
The Take Profit is calculated by reporting the highest side of the rectangle which made a PULLBACK (see my old publication on "PULLBACK") and see graph below.
Report this segment to the BREAK of one of the diagonals, but ESPECIALLY to the CLOSING of the candle in its time unit!!!
STOP Loss below the previous low if you are BUYING.
STOP Loss above the previous high if you are SHORT (Seller).
GOOGLE:BAT/BALCK SWAN/Wolfe WaveGOOGLE:BAT/BALCK SWAN/Wolfe Wave
Google/Alphabet is one of the “Magnificent Seven” and the performance of recent months is indisputable. However, even though the fundamentals are all green, there may be a "Black Swan" nestling within Mountainview society, this black swan might even have the face of the Department of Justice. Indeed, for several days, judges have been digging into the past to find out whether Google would not have abused and used financial manipulation to obtain this dominant position in search engines.
Whether we subscribe to this conspiracy theory or not, we cannot neglect the fact that the government will want to make an example and deprive Google of its current privileges - such as, for example, being the default search engine at Apple - this hypothesis could even justify the probability of a severe correction, even if, in the long term, it should not have too much impact either. Add to that the fact that the Magnificent Seven are tired after their 2023 rally and you have a "perfect storm" looming over Mountain View.
SOX : Trendline to watch!!!!Trendline to watch!!!!
Indeed, the “SOX” semiconductor index, known as a leading indicator, seems to be showing signs of weakness. Although it has returned to its uptrend line, we can still be wary of Wolfe waves which indicate a possible breakout. Not to mention that major components like “Intel” or “Nvidia” are either very high and overvalued (Nvidia), or have experienced a fairly phenomenal series of consecutive increases (Intel). Breaking the uptrend could be a negative signal for technology and especially for the market as a whole.
VIX: “BUTTERFLY” was detected in (H4)-A bullish harmonic pattern “BUTTERFLY” was detected in (H4)
-On the downside, 11.82 should be watched.
-But the probabilities are stronger on the rise.
-The ECB’s speech will perhaps “change the situation”.
-Don't forget that Volatility lives up to its name VERY well!
-Be careful and “stay covered!” » ;-)
DAX: Bearish BUTTERFLY DAX: Bearish BUTTERFLY - Beyond the technical aspect, we can see that the DAX will spark a huge bullish rally following Madame Lagarde's interest rate hike announcement. As far as I remember, interest rate increases rarely increase 1% at the same time. Today's excuses for "buying rising rates" include: “We buy because we feel the upward cycle is over, and this makes stakeholders happy.”
But no one brings up the fact that we didn't expect this raise. Because we had the same feeling at the previous ECB meeting - that there would be no more rate hikes - and today we share the same story and everyone believes it. There is something rotten in the merchant kingdom, and if they realize it, the sanctions will be terrible.
SP500: Bearish BUTTERFLYDAX: BUTTERFLY - Beyond the technical aspect, we can see that the DAX will spark a huge bullish rally following Madame Lagarde's interest rate hike announcement. As far as I remember, interest rate increases rarely increase 1% at the same time. Today's excuses for "buying rising rates" include: “We buy because we feel the upward cycle is over, and this makes stakeholders happy.”
But no one brings up the fact that we didn't expect this raise. Because we had the same feeling at the previous ECB meeting - that there would be no more rate hikes - and today we share the same story and everyone believes it. There is something rotten in the merchant kingdom, and if they realize it, the sanctions will be terrible.
EUR/USD:Bearish Wolf wave detected,but EUR/USD: Bearish Wolf wave detected
+Broken trend line
+MACD is growing lower.
+Reachable Bollinger Bands on the downside.
However, be careful, because we could have a rebound:
+ Bullish harmonic pattern and its PRZ
+EMA.200 in target.
+ Reachable Bollinger Bands on the upside.