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Disinflation – Fact or Fiction?CME: S&P Technology Select Sector ( CME_MINI:XAK1! ) The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January and +6.4% year over year, reported the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday. Excluding food and energy, Core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% yearly. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected the headline CPI to grow 0.4% monthly and 6.2% yearly. Expectations for core CPI changes were 0.3% and 5.5%, respectively. On Tuesday, US stocks fell at open in response to the hotter-than-expected CPI report. But major indexes recovered somewhat at the close of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 156 points, or -0.46%, after initially losing over 300 points. The S&P 500 was flat at 4,136 (-0.03%), and the Nasdaq 100 gained 68 points to 11,960. US Treasury yields ticked higher. 2-year yield went up 94 ticks to 4.628%, while 10-year yield lifted 36 points to 3.755%. Bond investors widely expected the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points to the 4.75%-5.00% range in March. Mega Trend in US Inflation While we usually focus on the percentage changes in inflation, CPI data are constructed as indexes, each using 1982-84 price data as a baseline at 100. January CPI reading of 299.170 is 0.8% above December of 296.797. It is up 6.4% from 281.148 in January 2022 (Data in this section is from Table 1 in the January CPI release). Interpretation: Today, the average price of goods and services in the U.S. is about 3 times as high as the price level from nearly four decades ago. This translates into a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.93% for the past 38 years. Insights: Long-run inflation rate is almost one percentage point higher than the Fed policy target. With less restrictive monetary policy on one hand, but more expansive fiscal policy on the other, the 2% goal appears to be far fetching. Barring a major recession, I expect the US inflation to stay above its 3% historical average in the foreseeable future. In the past four decades, cost of many consumer goods tripled in price, including Food (+219%), Energy (+183) and Core CPI (+202%). But there are noticeable outliners: • Tobacco and smoking products, +1289% • Motor vehicle insurance, +559% • Medical care services, +502% • New vehicle, +77% • Apparel, +28% January CPI Readings Before diving into the data, we should know that when BLS releases CPI data in February, it readjusts the weighting to account for the latest changes in the cost of living. For 2023, CPI weights are updated annually based on a single calendar year of consumer expenditure data. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially. The changes of weighting by product and service category in the January report: CPI Category Old Weight New Weight Change Housing 46.40% 44.40% +2.0% Entertainment 5.70% 5.40% +0.3% Food 14.50% 14.40% +0.1% Clothing 2.50% 2.50% 0.0% Other 2.60% 2.70% -0.1% Medical 7.70% 8.10% -0.4% Education 5.20% 5.80% -0.6% Transport 15.30% 16.70% -1.4% Rising shelter costs accounted for nearly half the monthly price increase. The component accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and was up 7.9% from a year ago. Energy also was a significant contributor, up 2% month over month (M/M) and 8.7% annually, while food costs rose 0.5% M/M and 10.1% annually. Food: Up 0.5% M/M in January from 0.1% in December. Annualized inflation is 10.1%. Energy: Up 2.0% M/M in January from -3.1% in December. Annualized gain is 8.7%, of which, gasoline (+1.9%), diesel (+27.7%), electricity (+11.9%), and natural gas (+26.7%). Shelter: Up 0.7% M/M in January from 0.8% in December. Up 7.9% Y/Y. Transportation: Up 0.9% M/M in January from 0.6% in December. Up 14.6% Y/Y. While the headline CPI ticks down from 6.5% to 6.4% on an annualized basis, January price increase of 0.5% is significantly higher than the December reading of +0.1%. Overall inflation level is undoubtedly on the way down, but price increases from food, shelter and transportation are very sticky and don’t normally go down once moving up. Is disinflation a fact or fiction? I think we are somewhere in between, in the Twilight Zone. The US Stock Market Narratives In the past three years, the stock market narratives have changed several times: • After the initial pandemic hit in March 2020, US stocks staged a very impressive bull run. Growth drivers were US companies innovating with new products and services and catering for “work-from-home” employees and “play-at-home” consumers. • 2022 started with a major geopolitical crisis, pushing stocks sharply down. Fed rate hikes from March 2022 dragged major stock indexes into bear market territory. • Since inflation peaked in July and the Core CPI reading confirmed it in October 2022, US stock market began to rebound, centering on the notion of “Fed Pivot”. More recently, investors are caught by conflicting economic data. • Unemployment at 50-year low vs. Big Techs pushing rounds of massive lay-offs; • Lower inflation rate vs. “Eggflation” and “Shrinkflation” that consumers experience; • Whether the Fed is hawkish or dovish depends on the next dataset. While investors try to make sense of all these, stock market moves sideways. The 30-day returns for Dow and the S&P are -0.83% and +3.20%, respectively. Are we at the beginning of a new bull market? Or is it a bear relief, a temporary rebound from a bear market? To make an assessment, you need to know how many more rate hikes could be (pick a number between 1 and 4), and what the terminal rate would be (5.0%, 5.25%, 5.5%, 5.75%, or 6.0%)? I have no idea. When uncertainty becomes the dominant narrative, it’s time to explore opportunities that promise more certainties. AI - New Engine for Economic Growth One visible exception is Nasdaq 100, which gained 8.9% in the past month. S&P Technology Select Sector Index (XAK) had an even higher return at 9.5%. Most Big Tech companies were vastly overstaffed during the pandemic years. With stock prices cutting by two thirds or more, they are forced to live within their cash flow. Cutting off unprofitable divisions and laying off redundant staff help them survive in leaner years. This is certainly very painful for the tech workers and their families. To investors, Big Tech may have transformed itself from lofty Growth Stock to reasonably priced Value Stock. For Nasdaq 100, its trailing 12-month price/earnings ratio was 34 one year ago. It is 23.63 as of February 10th, according to Birinyi Associates. Technological breakthroughs have always powered the US economy to growth for the long run. Personal computers in the 1980s, Internet for the 1990s, smart phones and mobile internet in the 2000s, and electric vehicles in the 2010s, just to name a few. In my opinion, Artificial Intelligence will be our economic growth engine in 2023. While AI is nothing new, the viral success of ChatGPT has sensationally changed the game. Its popularity among mainstream consumers helps form strong support for all publicly traded companies in the AI sector, not just for OpenAI and its parent Microsoft. While writing this report, I asked ChatGPT one question: “Please show me the top-10 publicly traded stocks in the AI field.” Below is his/her/its answer: 1. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - Google's parent company, which has been investing heavily in AI technology and applications. 2. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - A leading company in graphics processing units (GPUs), which are commonly used in AI training and inferencing. 3. International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) - A company that has been developing AI technologies for several years and has a range of products and services, including the Watson AI platform. 4. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - Microsoft has invested heavily in AI technologies, and its Azure platform provides a range of AI tools and services. 5. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - Amazon's AI capabilities are used in a variety of products and services, including the Alexa voice assistant and its recommendation algorithms. 6. Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) - A Chinese company that has been investing heavily in AI technologies, including natural language processing and autonomous driving. 7. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) - A Chinese company that has also invested heavily in AI technologies and has been developing AI applications for e-commerce, logistics, and finance. 8. Intel Corporation (INTC) - A company that has been developing hardware specifically for AI, including custom processors and FPGA chips. 9. Twilio Inc. (TWLO) - A company that provides cloud-based communication services and has been investing in AI technologies to improve its services. 10. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) - A company that develops CPUs and GPUs for AI applications and has been investing heavily in machine learning and other AI technologies. This is very impressive. ChatGPT not only gives me a list of the companies, but also highlights each company’s involvement in the AI field. Since ChatGPT doesn’t have data beyond 2021, we come back to our trusty TradingView to pull out 1-year return charts. What a brutal year! Only Microsoft manages to gain 5.3%. The rest in the list had negative returns from -10% to 40%. Twilio is the loss leader, yielding -66.8% in the last 12 months. This drives home the two major risks in new technology investing: Firstly, at an early stage, you have no idea which technology will win out at the end. Is it direct current (DC) or alternative current (AC)? Airship or Aircraft? VHS or Betamax? Cable TV or satellite TV? And TDMA or GSM for cellular signal? Secondly, you do not know which company will become a leader in a winner-take-all market. If you go back in time and invest in the new automobile industry in 1908, you have a 99% chance of losing money, unless you luckily picked Ford, General Motors, or Chrysler out of the 253 publicly traded automakers. Likewise, if you invested in mobile phone companies in early 2000, you likely picked Motorola, Blackberry, Ericsson, or Nokia. However, when an outsider Apple launch a breakthrough product, iPhone 1 in 2007, it knocked out all leading cellphone markers and became the ultimate winner. Right now, I predict that most electric vehicle makers will go out of business in five years, except for Tesla, and maybe BYD. The Case for S&P Technology Select Sector Index Consistently picking winners in emerging technologies is extremely difficult. Even the smartest stock picker could not beat the market. Take Cathy Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) as an example, its cumulative returns comparing to the Nasdaq 100 were: • 1-year: -42.8% vs. -12.4%; • 5-year: -2.1% vs. +85.1%; • Since Inception (8-year): +100.3% vs. +203.5%. Diversification is a very powerful concept in investing, notably in times of uncertainty. Concentrating on stock picking, many active managers tend to cloud objective assessment with their own conviction and lose sight of potential market leaders amid emerging mega trends. Passive investment via index futures focusing on the high-tech sector allows us to express our conviction and capture emerging trends. XAK is one of the 11 sector indexes in the S&P 500. Its top holdings are Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Broadcom (AVGO), Cisco (CSCO), and Adobe (ADBE). My research shows that S&P Technology Select Sector (XAK) outperformed many Big Tech stocks and ETFs in both short-term and long-term. According to Fact Sheet published by S&P, as of January 31st, the annualized historical returns are -15.22% (1Y), 13.82% (3Y), 16.22% (5Y) and 18.48% (10Y). Total returns since inception are 6,425.9%. You may invest in one of the technology sector ETFs, such as SPDR XLK, iShare IYW, and Vanguard VGT. But CME E-Mini S&P Technology Select Sector Index Futures (XAK) has distinguished features over ETFs. Firstly, XAK has five quarterly contracts to choose from: March, June, September, December and March 2024. This allows us to evaluate strategies focusing on expected future value of the index, up to 1 year ahead. Secondly, you could place either Long or Short position, allowing both bullish and bearish strategies to implement. Thirdly, initial margin of placing 1 contract is approximately 35% of the notional value. This built-in leverage could enhance the returns if market moves in the right direction. Finally, by holding a long position on the quarterly futures contract and rolling it each quarter, investors could replicate the strategy of holding the stocks or the ETFs. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:XAK1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
3
ChatGPT will be the game changer.Reason to invest into ChatGPT 1. Microsoft invested over $10billion into ChatGPT 2. ChatGPT sets record for fastest-growing user base . (Feb 1 (Reuters) - ChatGPT, the popular chatbot from OpenAI, is estimated to have reached 100 million monthly active users in January, just two months after launch, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history, according to a UBS study on Wednesday.) It took TikTok about nine months after its global launch to reach 100 million users and Instagram 2-1/2 years, according to data from Sensor Tower. 3. ChatGPT has finally make their product workable and catch Microsoft and the world attention. Company such as Google, Baidu, Tencent (wechat) all started to sing into the same AI trend. FOMO from investors may start to pour in soon. 4. Even though price have increased from $10 low to recent $30 high, but it never too late to join the party. If you are still holding onto Meta waiting for Metaverse (which not yet ready), why not try this ChatGPT. 5. Base on chart, few price level to do DCA if you have invested in. ($22, $20, $18, $15) 6. Lastly, I have entered into it and prepare to do DCA along the way.
NYSE:AILong
by probabilityta
1
Alphabet fakeout after fear of AI update target $90 W Formation formed on Alphabet which then had a major fakeout There was a test of the 200MA which Failed to break above and dropped. Target $90 With Google and Alphabet trying to combat with the new challenge of creating a better CHAT GPT, it seems like the first version has failed. There were many errors and false answers. They also called the Ex CEOS and management to try and create similar versions through BING and BARD. This caused fear with investors and lead to a $100 billion drop in market value. Overall I think Google will find a way to replace Chat GPT or integrate the technology eventually. These are short term blips before the upside. Right now we can remain bearish as the charts don't lie, but the price will need to drop below $90 in order to have a new analysis for downside. I'll keep you updated as always.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by Timonrosso
$GOOGL OverreactionThis situation is quite silly. The media is blowing it out of proportion and believes OpenAi is the second coming of Jesus. Google has 91% market share of Search, and Bing has about 2% share. Microsoft, part owner of OpenAi, plans to grow their search efforts and compete with Google search. The threat is that Bing may take a couple percent. In reality, people won't be switching their browsers where they have their passwords, addresses, bookmarks, email account, extensions, payments, and more saved over an implementation of ChatGPT, which they can just use separately from search. Remember, people hate change, especially when it ruins convenience. ChatGPT is cool, and I've been playing with it since December, it has plenty of it's own problems. No one has invested more in Ai then Google. As far as the trade goes. Any buys at this level are a good entry. $85-$90 even better.
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by bishopknight
3
MicroSoft Going Hard on Google (unveils ChatGPT vs BARD) Charts first: 258.78 is double support we can count on, structure is quite strong. 313 will be our main target for 2023 and it could come fast as the news are Huge: Microsoft has announced a new version of its search engine Bing, which incorporates the latest in artificial intelligence. The overhaul deploys OpenAI's ChatGPT technology, which has taken the world by storm since its launch last year. The move is by far the biggest threat Google has seen to its dominance in web search - and marks the beginning of an AI arms race between the companies. "The race starts today," Microsoft boss Satya Nadella said. Developed by Microsoft-backed OpenAI, ChatGPT uses deep learning techniques to generate human-like responses to search requests. At the same time, GOOGLE announces their response to ChatGPT, in a race to come ahead of the popular AI service funded by Microsoft. Google’s Bard AI will soon enter beta and will be available to select testers around the world, months after OpenAI’s ChatGPT exploded in popularity. This will be interesting to watch and I do have a feeling that Google will win but the race will benefit Microsoft, at least temporarily. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by FX_Professor
13
GOOG Alphabet Options Ahead of Earnings | Last Quarter of GrowthAs you can see, the last chart was pretty accurate: Now I think this year we will see Google losing ground in the advertising industry. The Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit Tuesday against Google alleging the company of abusing its dominance over smaller rivals by operating like an illegal monopoly. MSFT Microsoft bought a 49% stake in OpenAI, who owns CHatGPT, that ca really be a rival to Google in answering questions. As a matter of fact i am using ChatGPT more than Google search right now. So i believe this is the last quarter of growth for GOOG / GOOGL, as you can see in the chat, because Q4 was not impacted by ChatGPT so much. Looking at the GOOG Alphabet options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $100 strike price Calls with 2023-2-10 expiration date for about $2.66 premium. If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by TopgOptions
2
Google Short IdeaThis is a hypothetical short position on Google. The basis for this is that Google, despite being pioneers in AI and search have fundamentally been blind sighted by chatGPT and could legitimately go to zero (although it's more likely is a rebound ~68). Here we have 3 positions. The first is OTM PUTS just below S1 which should be short dated or put calendar spreads used for extra leverage. The second is short the shares @market price, with a 2 year leap call @ 100 and CSP leap @ 75. The goal here is to be hedged in such a way as to give someone flexibility to exit the short by being covered via the short put and the 100 call, as well as the ability to double down via short dated puts. It should also ideally give someone the ability to transition into a synthetic long, if done right.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by livingdracula
1
Chat GPT Ai stocks list for 2023Is chat gpt and Artificial Intelligence the next boom theme? Why are so many people talking about it recently? How long can this new trend create opportunity for , years, decades? How do we value the opportunity and avoid paying too much? Dont get ripped off and caught up in the hype, use math and valuation to price the reward and risk in a balanced logical way. The legends of investing have given us they formulas through lifetimes of trial and error. We just need to apply them. Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Phil Fisher, these guys used simple math to make fantastic decisions. Concepts like Price to Earnings vs growth, and balance sheet valuation concepts. Stick to the valuation math principles and make better logic decisions in these uncertain markets. Cheers!
NYSE:AIEducation
by ValuePig
4
MSFT Microsoft Bought 49% Stake in OpenAI creator of ChatGPTMSFT has reached our Buy area: Microsoft purchased a 49% stake in OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, for $10 billion. Which i think it will turn out to be the best investment in MSFT history! Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) integrates Chat GPT into its Bing, Office, and it Azure service! Now looking at the MSFT Microsoft options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $245 strike price Calls with 2023-2-27 expiration date for about $1.60 premium. If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%. Or at least buy shares for the long run! They will compete with GOOGL thanks to OpenAI. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TopgOptions
4
open ai is a nice fun toolpeople have used it to cheat on university exams. people with no coding experience have used it to develop software. people use it to penetration test vulnerabilities in networks. its all cloud based supercomputing. does this mean openai is going to change the world? no. does it mean microsofts cloud computing business is saved? no. does that mean its a good investment? yes. obviously bulls got power bomb suplexed back into the dirt at the end there, but its as if they dont care. as long as were buying the rumor, selling the news, im going to assume theres more rumors, and more news. aquisitions and debt to assets peaked after trumps election, and were rubbing up against corona bottom anchored vwap, and top of regression. if these metrics continue bull, im long, and if we resist and move lower im bear.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by cerealpatterns