NZDCHF BUY | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity NZDCHF
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Chf
EURCHF possible longAfter price broke 4h structure with not so great momentum, it quickly retraced has has now retested recent supply zone. But this supply zone is weak as price has a huge imbalance above that it could try to fill, which means that this supply zone is less likely to hold and thus price could only use it just for a momentary retest before breaking it and reaching the one above the imbalance at the top.
CHF at Key Technical Support⏰CHF at key levels ⏰
Overview
The Swiss Franc is at key technical support levels on several pairs. The CHF strength is driven by the Israel-Hamas war.
The Details
The support levels will likely not hold if there is further escalation in the region. Expect the support levels to break and ***CHF pairs to move lower.
If by some miracle, the war becomes stagnant or things de-escalate, the support levels could hold.
Things to consider
Buying the CHF is painful due to Switzerland's low-interest rate. The swap rate offered by most brokers is off-putting.
A better trade may be a de-escalation trade, though we could be waiting a while
The Swiss Franc continues to downtrend longer-term. A de-escalation trade may catch a downside correction move rather than a long-term uptrend.
The CHF could strengthen on global recession fears, possibly in the coming months.
CADCHF - Around The Lower Bound Again!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
on Weekly: Left Chart
After rejecting the 0.68 resistance, CADCHF traded lower and it is currently hovering around the lower bound of the range, and support 0.65.
on H1: Right Chart
For the bulls to take over, and activate our buy setup, we need a break above the last high in gray.
Meanwhile, CADCHF would be bearish and can still trade lower inside the green weekly support.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
USDCHF Stuck within the 1D MA50 - MA100. Break-out trade.The USDCHF pair is pulling back after making nearly a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and hit last hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Today it is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance, so the closing of the 1D candle either way will most likely decide the next trend.
Above the 1D MA50, we will buy, targeting 0.94000 (Channel Up Higher High and Resistance 2). Below the 1D MA100, we will quick sell, targeting 0.88000 (Channel Up bottom).
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USDCHF 22/10/23UC is another example of bearish price action we know from what we have seen of our other pairs that this is likely to carry over into this week but we will more than likely look to fill some of our high areas, which would match up nicely with what we know of our other pairs for example GU.
Main focus here is to take out a major high or low, as it stands we have a lot of liquid on both sides of the market, so we don't want to get caught up in anything we don't need to be in!
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
SUN 22 OCT USDCHF BEARISH TRADEIn the chart, the USD/CHF price has been following a bearish channel, consistently making lower lows and lower highs.
The next opportunity for traders is to wait for the price to pull back to the support level that has become resistance.
With a risk-reward ratio of 3, traders have several strategies available:
A) Wait for the price to pull back and demonstrate a bearish candlestick pattern such as a pinbar, engulfing pattern, inside bar, doji, etc. This approach relies on confirmation from price action signals.
B) Place a limit order at the structural level, anticipating a reversal from that point. This strategy does not wait for confirmation and assumes the price will respect the historical structure.
C) Combine both methods by allocating half of your capital to enter with a limit order at the structure level and the other half upon confirmation of a bearish candlestick pattern. This approach balances confirmation with the potential of an earlier entry.
UsdChf weakest among allLooking at Uchf , if usd is to turn weak, will look more into shorting this pair
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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A Traders’ Weekly Playbook; Buying risk when its darkestA Traders’ Playbook; Buying risk when its darkest
Equities continue to find few friends and reviewing so many of the daily and weekly set-ups in our core equity indices, standing in front of the move and countering seems a low probability outcome at this juncture.
The China CN50 and AUS200 look particularly weak, while EU equity markets are in steep decline, with price breaking level after level. In the US, the NAS100 sits on a huge support zone seen between 14,560 and 14,430, with the US500 eyeing the 4 Oct swing low at 4200 – if these levels are broken this week and SPX 20-day realised volatility rises further, then market chatter will centre on the S&P500 pushing towards 4000.
The contrarians have started to look at sentiment and throw out a range of charts, including deteriorating market breadth and the number of stocks (in an index) below the 20-, 50- or 200-day moving average, that have an RSI below 30, or resides at 4-week lows. On current standings we’re not yet near a point of maximum bearishness. The CNN Fear and Greed can do a good job capturing the mood across markets and this says a similar message.
The time for contrarianism is approaching – and who doesn’t love a tradeable V-bottom – but it isn’t now.
Maybe corporate earnings can have a more positive effect and stabilise sentiment. With 47% of the S&P 500 market cap reporting this week, this is the week it could happen, and guidance and outlooks from CEOs can play a more important role. The macro matters though, and we continue to focus on geopolitical headlines, moves in the US 10- and 30-year Treasury, volatility, and energy markets. With bonds offering no defence in the portfolio, traders continue to manage drawdown risk through volatility, gold, and the CHF as the preeminent hedges.
The USD hasn’t performed as well as some had hoped through this period of equity drawdown and rise in long-end bond yields. One factor is that we’re seeing a rise in EU and Chinese growth momentum, so the rest of the world is looking less bad. We also regress and understand that the CHF acts more like gold in times of geopolitical tensions, and after a 7.8% rally between July and October (in the DXY), consolidation in the USD index was always a possibility.
Keep an eye on USDCNH and USDJPY as a guide, and the fact we see both pairs in a sideways consolidation is keeping broad G10 FX volatility subdued and a factor keeping the USD from moving freely on a broad FX basis.
As many try and pick a turn in equity markets, a bounce in risk this week can't be ruled out, and we need to be open-minded to all possibilities – its fighting an evolving momentum though and many will prefer to initiative (or add) shorts into any rallies, rather than fight it. Buying risk when it's darkest and sentiment is rock bottom is a well-adopted market philosophy but I’m not sure we’re there just yet.
Marquee data points for next week:
• EU manufacturing/services PMI (24 Oct 19:00) – the market consensus is we see the diffusion index print 43.6 (from 43.4 in September) and the services index at 48.6 (from 48.7)
• UK manufacturing/services PMI (24 Oct 19:30) -– the market consensus is we see the diffusion index print 44.6 (from 44.3 in September) and services at 49.3 (unchanged 49.3). A better services print could see a big reaction in GBP given how short the market has got.
• Australia Q3 CPI (25 Oct 11:30 AEDT) – the consensus sees headline CPI at 5.3% yoy (from 6%) / core CPI at 5.0% yoy (5.9%). The Aussie interest rates markets price a hike on 7 Nov at 34% - so, if we get a CPI print above 5.4%, we could see the market pricing a hike at the November RBA meeting at or above 50%. AUDNZD has been the best expression for AUD bulls but is coming into a supply zone around 1.0850.
• US S&P manufacturing/services PMI (25 Oct 00:45 AEDT) – a data point the market could completely ignore or could be the trigger for a sizeable reaction – the consensus is we see manufacturing at 49.9 (from 49.8) and services at 49.9 (50.1).
• BoC meeting Canada (26 Oct 01:00 AEDT) – the swaps market ascribes very little chance of a hike at this meeting, and only 6bp of hikes through to March 2024 – if the tone of the statement suggests a greater risk of hikes in the future, then the CAD should rally.
• ECB meeting (26 Oct 23:15 AEDT) – the ECB won’t hike at this meeting, so the focus falls on their guidance on the economic outlook and hurdle for hikes in the future. There will also be a focus on the bank’s plans to increase QT, and even look at the timeline on sales from APP and PEPP bond purchase program – if this is brought forward from Jan 2025 the market would see this EUR positive.
• US Core PCE inflation (27 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – US headline PCE inflation is eyed at 3.4% (from 3.5%) and core 3.7% (3.9%) – it would have to be a big number to put a hike at the Dec FOMC meeting on the table – a November hike is not up for debate and the market sees a hold as a full-gone conclusion.
• Chile central bank meeting (27 Oct 08:00 AEDT) – The market looks for a 50bp rate cut, but there are risks for 75bp – can USDCLP print new cycle highs?
Central bank speakers:
Fed speakers – Powell (26 Oct 07:35 AEDT – unlikely to offer any new market intel). Waller (27 Oct 00:00 AEDT) and Barr
BoE speakers – Cuncliffe (27 Oct 03:45)
RBA speakers – Gov Bullock (24 Oct 19:00 AEDT) & Bullock and Kent both appearing at the Senate testimony (26 Oct 09:00 AEDT)
Marquee US earnings and the implied move on the day of earnings (derived from options pricing) – on the week we see 43% of the S&P500 market cap reporting. Marquee names include - Alphabet (4.8%), Microsoft (4.1%), IBM (2.7%), Meta (8.6%), Amazon (6.4%), Intel (6.6%), Exxon (2.4%)
CADCHF: Pullback From Key Level 🇨🇦🇨🇭
CADCHF is taking off from a solid horizontal daily support.
The price formed a double bottom formation on that on an hourly time frame.
Feels like the market is oversold and it is the moment for correction.
Bullish continuation is expected to 0.6535 / 0.6550
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nzd/chf Week's LOW
Last week's low was not breached! However, it bounced back impressively! The previous week's high is quite far, almost halfway for potential trading! Let's use a tight stop because we are anticipating a bounce from the weekly low! It attempted several times to break below but couldn't sustain, and it bounced back nicely! Let's see if it will go higher!
EURCHF: Strong Bearish Confirmation Explained 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF is retesting a recently broken horizontal structure.
The price formed a double top, approaching that on an hourly time frame.
Its neckline breakout is a strong bearish confirmation.
A bearish move is now expected to 0.9498 / 0.9478
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USDCHF: Wait for breakoutWe can see that USDCHF has followed a descending dynamic trendline and has now formed a triangle pattern.
Most other Swiss crosses are near or at ATL's or ATH's except this one.
We can see multiple rejections on the 4HR from my support line and we're nearing the squeeze point of the triangle, so if we break the descending line I'll be looking for a long following the retest.
NZDCHF Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDCHF for a selling opportunity around 0.53250 zone, NZDCHF is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.53250 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURCHF: Important Bearish Breakout 🇪🇺🇨🇭
With one single bearish candle, EURCHF successfully violated 2
important daily structures: a horizontal support and a rising trend line.
The broken structures compose an expanding sell zone now.
I will anticipate a bearish movement from that at least to 0.946
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GBPCHF Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPCHF for a selling opportunity around 1.10400 zone, GBPCHF is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.10400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURCHF - Now OverSold ↗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last analysis, attached on the chart, we have been looking for sell setups around the upper bound of the red channel.
EURCHF traded lower and it is now approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the zone 0.945 is a strong support.
🏹 So the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
As per my trading style:
As EURCHF is sitting around the lower red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich