Chfjpy!
CHFJPY A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the CHFJPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.6656
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 165.53
My Stop Loss - 166.98
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CHFJPY H4 | Falling from 50% Fibo?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that price has just reacted off our sell entry at 165.41, which is an overlap resistance level that aligns with 50% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 164.47. The stop loss will be placed at 166.60 which is a swing high resistance
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
CHFJPY Buy?Let's attempt a slightly more daring trade on the CHF/JPY pair, with a 20-pip stop loss – a modest amount considering the potentially substantial gains. Please refrain from harboring excessive expectations for this trade or similar outcomes. This is meant to be a light-hearted endeavor before the week concludes. Anticipate a potential loss on this trade, so I strongly advise against a significant investment .
To calculate a 1% stop loss of your balance, you use a lot size calculator. RR: 1:8.53
Prime Target: Carry Trades - except for the USDJPY!Sure, the Yen is overly weak on a trade-weighted basis BUT it is the least weak versus the USD!
E.g., For any intervention to be effective it ought target just about any other high yielding spread/pair EXCEPT for the USD!
Having established that, it is still far more likely that any intervention would target the USD/JPY directly than the rest, if for no other reason but for its success last September (2022). (Last September, dollar longs were extremely overcrowded which amplified the effects of that intervention, and then most of the cash went into carry trades.)
Times have changed, though, whether the BoJ will be willing to subscribe to that notion or not. (which is yet to be seen).
OK, so where does this potential paradox (or rather, just a dichotomy? ;-) leave one, in trading terms?
1) If there ever was a right time to trade the Japanese Yen against a basket of it's counterparts, now would be it! (Work has almost completed on just such a basket this time with correct weighing. ;-)
2) FX options (especially Gamma changes) have been gauging the potential market effects of the BoJ's various jaw-boning attempts (most of which were summarily ignored by the markets) in support of the Yen, rather accurately. "If it ain't broke don't fix it." Stick with it!
p.s. The CHF/JPY is a special case here (not quite a carry trade) as it's eye-watering rise is due to the same, deranged SNB policy which ended in tears, back in 1978-79. (... Switzerland slipping into a far deeper depression than it's trading partners, back then.)
CHFJPY - Bullish price action ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on CHFJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a strong bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for long. I want price to go a little bit lower to fill the imbalance and then to reject from bullish order block + institutional big figure 164.000.
Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
CHF JPY LONGRisk 0.5%
TP1 = 1:3 RR
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
(Weekly backtest and review)CHFJPY on the retraceWe foresee CHF would continue to shine brightly against JPY.
However, with recent market sentiment, the momentum in shorting JPY is getting weak. CFTC report showing that shorting volume on JPY is on the decline since 18JUL.
Shorting JPY become a risky trade when the outlook is turning from strong sell to neutral.
CHFJPY next retracement level at
S1- 164.000
S2- 162.500 (H4 MA200 indicator support)
CHFJPY Buy opportunity unless the 1D MA50 breaks.The CHFJPY pair has been on a very strong and steady rise, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the March 29 break-out. Our last signal was on April 28 (see chart below):
The situation hasn't changed and the trend remains bullish, aiming at a +8.00% extension. Our target is 171.000. If however the pair breaks below the 1D MA50, we will close it and open a sell instead, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 152.000.
P.S. Notice the Rectangle pattern on the 1D RSI. Since the price broke and remains (to this date) above the 1D MA50, every test of the Rectangle's bottom is a buy opportunity.
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CHFJPY H4 | Falling to 23.6% Fibo supportCHFJPY is falling towards the buy entry at 165.402 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and could potentially reverse from here to bounce higher.
Stop loss is at 163.980 which is an overlap support that sits under the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is between 166.30 and 166.70 which is an over resistance that lies under the 100% Fibonacci projection level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): **
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Is the Market Primed for a Reversal? 1000 Pip Move On The Cards?Predicting market peaks and turning points is always a challenging task, made even more daunting when a financial asset is achieving unprecedented highs without any clear resistance or sell-off zones to reference. This challenge is even more pronounced when this situation occurs with a forex pair, as is currently happening. This is a true test of your trading experience and your ability to interpret price action.
Let's dive in, shall we?
When we take a look at the long-term timeframes, especially the monthly charts, we can easily observe an overextension. This overextension is also apparent in the weekly charts shown above, with clear signs of buying fatigue and a visible struggle between buyers and sellers. This struggle is evident in the last weekly candle where sellers managed to drive the price down to 159 (the previous all-time high) - a newly established weekly buy zone, from which buyers have managed to push the price back up.
A closer look at the daily charts (refer to the image below) reveals a structural shift with price activity moving sideways, suggesting a potential shift into a distribution phase, indicated by the lackluster buying momentum from the 159-point surge last week, as buyers were unable to establish a new high.
All signs are currently pointing towards a potential reversal. Typically, in such situations, we might expect a final upward push, breaking the distribution range's upper limit in what can be seen as a deceptive breakout. This can lure the market into believing that prices are escalating to new highs. Additionally, a number of retail traders might place their stops above 164, as per conventional trading wisdom.
From this point, my strategy is straightforward. I'll be waiting for that final upward push and monitor for signs of a false breakout. I'll also begin to look for entry signals on the daily chart from my TRFX indicator to gradually establish a position.
As for trade targets, the first one will be last week's low at 159 (the previous all-time high), but it is likely that this level will not hold and the market will plunge further to the previous monthly high of 152, also within a recently formed monthly buy zone.
The price charts are suggesting these moves, but as always, it's essential to wait for the right signals. This is a long-term setup grounded in high timeframe charts - these are optimal for tracking institutional moves. At the moment, a sell setup appears to offer the best risk-reward balance, given the apparent dwindling buying momentum.
I hope you found this analysis insightful. I'll keep you updated as this situation evolves.
CHFJPY about to break to the upsideThe overall trend is bullish and CHFJPY seems to have found support on the 15min timeframe at around 165.60. From this level, ptice has formed a triangle that would require to be broken tot he upside for the trend to resume higher. If broken, my targets are at 165.66 , 166.09 and 166.35.
CHFJPY MAJOR UPDATES
Hello Fellow traders,
As I predict from previous idea, Price could possibly break the weekly major trendlines, Now price reacting to that high level of Trendline, And candlestick makes a Doji,
Daily Timeframe forms a DIvergence 3 highs while the RSI lower.
But the volume is not changing, not bigger enough to say we short atm.
I will be update this maybe next week or this week if price consolidating on that zone.
Thank you and follow for more daily updates..
This is not a financial advice.
CHFJPY Short setup with entry point!Good morning traders, I was analyzing CHF/JPY, one of the few pairs I'll be observing today, given the expected data on the Canadian and American dollars. This asset currently presents a bullish setup with good potential for a bearish reversal. Currently, it's at the level of 165.65, supported by demand + thirty levels. Personally, before entering long positions, I'll wait for a significant retracement to the level of 163.80, where we have a Breaker Block on the M15 timeframe. If the price reaches this level with an M15 candle showing no pin, no doji, and with volatility lower than 10 pips, we could consider a long entry. Of course, as the initial confirmation of a descent towards our entry zone, the market will need to confirm with breaks on the M15-H1-H4 of the Swing Low on the H4 timeframe at the level of 164.86. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like to support the hard work. Happy trading to everyone.
CHFJPY Will Move Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for CHFJPY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 165.285.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 164.299 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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CHFJPY Long Term Buying Trading IdeaHello Traders
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Trading Under The Spotlight: My Open Analysis Odyssey #9Hello once more, TradingView community!
Each chart we explore together adds another chapter to our collective narrative, deepening our understanding of the vast market tapestry. For those just joining us, or for our regular comrades, here's a quick summary of our journey's ethos:
Transparency, Not a Tutorial : While I provide a window into my trading psyche via these posts, the core strategic depths remain mine. This isn't a directive trading guide; it's a chronicle of my market observations.
Frequency & Execution : As days unfold, diverse setups emerge, but not all transition into trades. This series is about offering a glimpse into my thought process, not necessarily presenting trade advisories.
Purpose & Growth : Central to this endeavor is my ambition to sharpen my analytical acumen, bolstered by the candid feedback from this community.
On to the next analysis of the day:
Instrument : CHFJPY
Bias : Long
Overall Trend : Long
Thoughts : This instrument has been a strong performer, appreciating by 17% within the year and showing little indication of slowing down. Historically, the Yen tends to exhibit weakness, largely attributed to infrequent interest rate hikes. However, I must admit a lack of deep familiarity with the current fundamentals surrounding this pair. Coupled with the age-old trading wisdom that "an object in motion tends to stay in motion," it paints an interesting picture. Yet, due to my limited experience with this pair and a somewhat hesitant feeling about this particular setup, I might stay on the sidelines this time.
Engaging with you all, whether through mere observations or active discussions, continues to be a vital component of this journey. Together, we'll continue to peel back the layers of the market, one intriguing setup after another.
CHFJPY: Bulls Will Push Higher
The strict beauty of the chart is a reflection of the fierce eternal battle between the bulls and bears and right now I can clearly see that the bulls are taking over so we will bend to the will of the crowd and buy too.
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