USD/CHF for weekend ending 1/29/2023The Swiss franc recently dropped to 0.92 per USD, retreating from its 1-year high of 0.916 on January 16th. As I assess the situation, I consider the outlook of monetary tightening by both the Swiss National Bank and the Federal Reserve .
The recent slowdown in Swiss inflation has limited the expectations for further rate hikes by the SNB. According to December's inflation data, the rate fell to 2.8%, below the SNB's target of 3% and market expectations of 2.9%. Despite this, the Chairman of the SNB, Jordan, has stated that further rate hikes shouldn't be ruled out, as second-round inflationary pressures still linger in the country's economy. Last year, the SNB raised its key rate by 175bps, taking borrowing costs out of negative territory for the first time since 2011.
According to our neural network based forecasting model, the Swiss Franc is estimated to reach 0.93 by the end of this quarter. The same model and market analysts predict that the Swiss Franc will reach 0.98 in 12 months.
