Final Uptick Ahead for CHFJPY?Greetings Fellow Traders,
It appears many have taken short positions in CHFJPY, expecting the uptrend to reverse. However, my analysis suggests there may be one final bull wave still to come.
Before the trend turns, I anticipate CHFJPY could edge higher, testing stops and forcing additional coverings. To defend short positions, consider implementing a long hedge around 164 in case of a temporary spike.
Once this final bull wave peaks, a downturn is expected, perhaps as soon as Thursday. Be ready to close long hedges then and restore CHFJPY shorts. The impending sell-off could be sharp once momentum shifts.
As always, apply robust risk management - size positions appropriately and utilize stops. Markets can deviate from forecasts, so please do your own due diligence. I'm sharing my perspective in hopes it aids your research.
Wishing you insightful analysis and profitable trades ahead! Let me know if you would like me to modify the tone or any part of the message. I aimed to make it sound professional while communicating the key points clearly.
Chfjpyanalysis
CHFJPY: Everything depends on JPY NOW!!Dear Traders, hope you are doing great and having amazing weekend. CHFJPY recently in strong bullish impulse price consolidated and extracted taking CHFJPY prices to all time high. We need some strong pullback so that market price structure have some stability.
There are two scenarios, firstly if JPY remains bearish then we will seeing prices going higher and higher. Though, a strong pullback is expected. Secondly if JPY reverse then we can see a strong pullback of 600-800 pips.
GOOD LUCK
CHF/JPY Strong Multi Bullish TrendsLong Term Trend Bullish
Mid Term Trend Bullish
Short Term Trend Bullish
6D Bar Chart Bullish
CHF/JPY Technical Analysis
Moving Averages:STRONG BUYBuy (
Technical Indicators:STRONG BUY
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 151.80 151.90 152.01 152.11 152.23 152.32 152.44
Fibonacci 151.90 151.98 152.03 152.11 152.19 152.24 152.32
Camarilla 152.07 152.09 152.11 152.11 152.14 152.16 152.18
Woodie's 151.80 151.90 152.01 152.11 152.23 152.32 152.44
DeMark's - - 152.06 152.13 152.27 - -
Moving Averages
MA5 152.05
Buy 152.09
Buy
MA10 151.98
Buy 151.99
Buy
MA20 151.82
Buy 151.89
Buy
MA50 151.75
Buy 151.73
Buy
MA100 151.58
Buy 151.80
Buy
MA200 152.13
Buy 151.67
Buy
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 69.405 Buy
STOCH(9,6) 52.801 Neutral
STOCHRSI(14) 100.000 Overbought
MACD(12,26) 0.100 Buy
ADX(14) 61.492 Buy
Williams %R -3.847 Overbought
CCI(14) 298.5981 Overbought
ATR(14) 0.1507 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.2454 Buy
Ultimate Oscillator 65.464 Buy
ROC 0.296 Buy
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0.5500 Buy
Fundamentals of the Swiss Franc
Whether a currency is strong or weak often depends on what the country’s or jurisdiction’s leading policymakers want it to be. This is largely within the purview of monetary policy run by the central bank who can influence this.
In the case of Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) wants a weak franc. It is doing this because it wants to boost inflation to rid the country of its deflationary problems that have plagued it for the better part of the past decade.
So, why is deflation bad?
If monetary policy is run with a deflationary bias, this means you will run an economy that never runs into its capacity constraints – e.g., “full employment”. Some amount of inflation will always be present when this is achieved because of structural flaws in our economic system stemming from imperfect competition, such as monopoly, duopoly, and oligopoly.
Therefore, some amount of inflation will always be present when full employment is truly reached. This is why inflation targeting as a central bank mandate is a no-brainer.
When an economy doesn’t achieve full employment it won’t maximize output. Unemployment as a whole will be high, because companies rarely cut nominal wages. Instead, they tend to lay off labour. People won’t earn as much income accordingly. Spending will decline, cash hoarding will become more common, and GDP – in developed economies, consumption is the majority of GDP – will contract and living standards will decline as a direct result.
Deflation produces permanent economic anaemia as not enough money and credit are being spent on goods, services, and financial assets. These cycles tend to be self-reinforcing. Lower incomes lead to lower spending, which leads to lower capacity to borrow, which produces even lower incomes and spending and overall output in a downward spiral.
Equity markets will remain below their peak with declining incomes and contractive (or insufficiently expansionary) monetary policy. Japan’s deflationary problems that have persisted for nearly three decades has left the country with a stock market that is still approximately 42% below its 1989 peak. This is obviously not good for domestic wealth.
The Swiss National Bank’s Effect
In the hope of permanently fixing Switzerland’s deflationary problems, the SNB has resorted to negative interest rates. This can seem counterintuitive because it means that the buyer has to pay in order to hold short-term debt.
In deflationary environments, it can make sense to hold a negative yielding bond if your real (inflation-adjusted) return is positive. In other words, if the negative rate on the bond is higher than the rate at which prices are declining on goods and services in the economy. It also serves as an incentive to get economic actors to put their money into riskier assets to increase collective returns and create a “wealth effect”. Theoretically, this should also boost spending and investment behaviour.
The SNB’s primary rate-setting mechanism, the SARON (Swiss Average Rate Overnight), is minus-75bps and overnight CHF LIBOR is minus-78 to minus-80bps. This helps stimulate outflows (exports) by working to make the currency cheaper. The Swiss franc becomes less desirable when its rate of return – and the rate of return of the assets that are denominated in francs – is not attractive.
The SNB also does their quantitative easing (asset buying) program much differently than the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan. Instead of buying domestic assets, the SNB buys outside assets, such as US large cap stocks, to push out liquidity and weaken the franc. When you buy domestic assets, this has the effect of increasing the value of the currency because these assets are what create demand for it. The SNB is doing the reverse process.
As an antidote to the SNB’s moves, traders largely recognize that Switzerland is in relatively solid shape economically. It has a fiscal surplus and large current account surplus. It also has low indebtedness, high wages, and high GDP per capita. This makes the Swiss franc in demand as it is a structurally sound currency.
In strong global economic environments, the franc is often used by traders as the short leg in buying currencies with high interest rates. This is called carry trading. This borrowing dampens demand for it because it is in effect being sold, which decreases its price.
But when the market is weak you often see strong buying activity in the franc because traders unwind their carry trades. These types of trades often involve being long a riskier asset or currency.
The most broadly helpful thing to know about the fundamentals of the Swiss franc is that it serves as a safe haven currency.
This is because its low interest rates make it attractive to borrow in, and covering these borrowed funds during periods of market turmoil means buying activity will take place.
Therefore, many consider the Swiss franc as a market hedge, similar to gold, or else a basic way to diversify a portfolio.
In good times, you will typically see it appreciate relative to positive-carry assets, such as currencies like the Australian dollar (AUD) or the emerging market equities example.
These rates of depreciation in the franc will generally be of a steadier magnitude than the sharp rates of appreciation during market weakness, given contractions tend to be much swifter and volatile than good economic periods.
CHFJPY - Long after filling the imbalance ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on CHFJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for longs. I want price to make a retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish order block + institutional big figure 162.000.
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CHFJPY Bullish Hammer on 1H ChartCHFJPY Bullish Hammer on 1H Chart
Hello traders,
I have spotted a bullish hammer pattern on the 1 hour chart of CHFJPY, which indicates a reversal of the previous downtrend and a continuation of the bullish momentum. The hammer has a long lower wick and a small body near the top of the candle, showing that the buyers have rejected the lower prices and pushed the price back up.
I have entered two market execution orders at 161.305 and 161.327, with a stop loss at 160.956, which is below the low of the hammer. My first target is 161.594, which is near the previous resistance level, and my second target is 161.913, which is near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent swing high and low.
This trade has a good risk-reward ratio of about 1:2 for both targets, and it aligns with the overall bullish trend on the higher time frames. I will update this post as the trade progresses.
Please like and follow if you find this idea helpful. Thank you for your support and happy trading! blush
CHFJPY Long Term Trading IdeaHello Traders
In This Chart CHFJPY HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today CHFJPY analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (CHFJPY market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on CHFJPY Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the ChartS
CHFJPY Trade Setup H4The CHFJPY closed at 160.14. Speaking of its resistance, the CHFJPY is currently trading within a channel, and the resistance level is forming around 160.140. If the market rejects from this level, there is a possibility of reaching the support level of the channel. However, if the channel breaks downwards, the next support level would be at 158.58. And if it also breaks 158.58, then there is a possibility of dropping down to 157.24. Pay attention to your levels, and as soon as a candle rejects from the resistance, you can consider selling.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.
CHFJPY LONG TERM TRADING IDEAHello Traders
In This Chart CHFJPY DAILY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today nzdcad analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (CHFJPY market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on CHFJPY Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
CHF/JPY Melting +100 Pips From Last Analysis , New Entry Added !This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
CHF/JPY Full Analysis From M To 4H T.F . Best Sell Areas ShowsThis Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Approaching The 1980 High Time To Sell ???Looking at this chart we have to go back all the way to 1980 to see the last time price was this high we have entered the Monthly SELL/SUPPLY zone that was created in that Year looking like it could go all the up towards 158
I will start to look for SELL signals as we go above 154 using the TRFX indicator on the daily charts this is a long term trade idea going off the Monthly charts the first target should be around 138 which is the previous Monthly resistance now support.
This has the potential to be a HUGE trade over the few months
DeGRAM | CHFJPY potential sell after the retracementCHFJPY is trading in the ascending channel, which is just a pullback of the bearish momentum move.
The market tested major resistance and then fell, which could be a potentially BC move of the AB=CD pattern.
Price action will most likely break and close below the channel and continue to trend downward.
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