A NOKout in round 1 - Why the NOK will win 2024Over the past two years, the Norwegian krone has undoubtedly been one of the big losers in the FX market.
Not only has it embarrassingly been constantly beaten up even against the EUR and traded at an all-time low, no, since November 2022 it has bottomed vs. ALL G10 currencies.
This was hardly surprising as almost all fundamental factors spoke against the NOK.
However, the tide will turn dramatically in 2024:
NOK positive:
➡️ Energy prices appear to have bottomed out and could rise again🟢
➡️ The oil price seems to be stabilising around the USD 60-70 mark and could rise in the event of a soft landing🟢
➡️ January and February are seasonally positive for the NOK🟢
➡️ Norges Bank surprised EVERYONE in December by raising interest rates again🟢
➡️ Norges Bank enters 2024 as one of the hawkishest of the G10 central banks
➡️ A further rate hike by Norges Bank in early 2024 cannot be ruled out🟢
➡️ It would raise interest rates while virtually all other central banks would be in rate cut mode🟢
➡️ Norges Bank will drastically reduce its NOK purchases from January (as previously announced by me in the NOKSEK Tradeidee ), see here:
Chfnoksignals
CHF/NOK Short From ResistanceThis has retraced back to resistance as expected, now there is the opportunity to short. If we see this rebound from this resistance and MACD remain below 0 and EMA's do not cross higher then this will drop. Target is 9.02671 where this should find support and bounce higher.
CHF/NOK Retrace Made, Now Turn LowerAlready short on this but it has retraced back to resistance and is now rejecting from here. More shorts can be entered with SL above the high of support and I have a target of 9.07100. There are a couple of support levels before the target which are shown on the chart, these can be used for short term profit taking and used with a swing trading strategy for lower risk.
CHF/NOK Awaiting Turn LowerLooking for a short on this. The support was broken and it is now retesting as resistance. Waiting for this to reject then can enter the short. Target is 9.32335, there may be some support at 9.40720 which could cause the price to rebound slightly but hopefully it will pass through this. There is also a longer term target at 9.07100.
CHF/NOK to SELLMarket ready for a sell in the 1 hour view.
Scalp or day trade market to the downside.
Pick your entry point wisely.
DISCLAIMER;
Trading carries risks, ideas are for guideline purposes only.
Do set stop losses when trading & be generous with how much room allowed for candle wicks.
There is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
SWISS FRANC / NORWEGIAN KRONE to SELLCHF/NOK is getting ready to go SHORT.
Market has been in an uptrend for about 3weeks.
A crucial resistance has been hit in its uprise.
Market already dropped this week, however, a retest/double top is likely.
Wait for confirmation of trend change, then find your entry.
Expecting a change in trend within the next week.
Scalp/day/swing trade market to the downside.
You pick your exit point.
DISCLAIMER;
Trading carries risks, ideas are for guideline purposes only.
Do set stop losses when trading & be generous with how much room allowed for candle wicks.
There is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
How I plan to find my entry;
CHFNOK to BUYCHF/NOK will buy.
Scalp or day trade the market.
You pick your exit point.
DISCLAIMER;
Trading carries risks, ideas for guideline purposes only.
Do set stop losses when trading & be generous with how much room allowed for candle wicks.
There is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.