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$NIO Triple dives, a repeat of 2020-2021. Bears in hibernation.During the first dive, volume is at its lowest. It dips slightly during the formation of the second dive in the middle, then gradually rises as the final shake-off takes shape, eventually reaching a high point. Observe what's happening, a divergence between price and the On Balance Volume. 2020 // While the stock formed lower lows, the OBV stayed near the same level. During the first dive (part of a triple dive pattern), NIO’s On-Balance Volume kept declining until the second dive formed, after which it began to rise. 2025 // The OBV forms higher highs with each dive. While the price is making lower lows against a descending resistance line, the OBV is trending higher. Why is the price dropping when the OBV has reached the same level? I’m sensing a reversal is on the horizon. The OBV is acting up. What do you think? I'm very bullish.
NYSE:NIOLong
by CapitalintheCity
19
Alibaba Group | BABA | Long at $80.00Alibaba Group NYSE:BABA has the potential for massive growth. From a technical analysis perspective (and using my selected simply moving averages (SMAs)), the price of NYSE:BABA is reconnecting with its primary SMA. It could ride this area for a while as it consolidates further, but this often means a future reversal of the downward trend. Thus, at $80.00, NYSE:BABA is in a personal buy zone. Target #1 = $89.00 Target #2 = $94.00 Target #3 = $107.00 Target #4 = $116.00 Target #5 = $305.00 (very long-term view...)
NYSE:BABALong
by WorthlessViews
China's money supply explodes.China's revision of its M1 money supply calculation in January 2025, which now encompasses individual checking accounts and assets held in non-bank financial institutions, seeks to deliver a clearer understanding of liquidity within its economy. The reported surge from $67 trillion in December 2024 to $112 trillion in January 2025 has ignited discussions, with some viewing it as a strategy to obscure underlying economic issues, such as a potential deflationary debt spiral. The People's Bank of China has declared a "moderately loose" monetary policy for 2025, aiming to boost the money supply and lower interest rates to foster economic growth, a move that may be connected to the M1 recalibration. This shift takes place against a backdrop of broader macroeconomic adjustments, including a 5% GDP growth target and initiatives to stabilize the real estate sector, as detailed in China's 14th Five-Year Plan for 2025.
ECONOMICS:CNM1Long
by BallaJi
CHINA50 to find support near market price?CHN50 - 24h expiry Trend line support is located at 13265. RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 13350 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 13500. We look to Buy at 13265 (stop at 13165) Our profit targets will be 13465 and 13500 Resistance: 13250 / 13400 / 13500 Support: 13300 / 13265 / 13250 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDLong
by OANDA
Can Soybeans Survive the Global Trade Chessboard?In the intricate game of international trade politics, soybeans have emerged as pivotal pieces on the global economic chessboard. The soybean industry faces a critical juncture as nations like the European Union and China implement protectionist strategies in response to US policies. This article delves into how these geopolitical moves are reshaping the future of one of America's most significant agricultural exports, challenging readers to consider the resilience and adaptability required in today's volatile trade environment. The European Union's decision to restrict US soybean imports due to the use of banned pesticides highlights a growing trend towards sustainability and consumer health in global trade. This move impacts American farmers and invites us to ponder the broader implications of agricultural practices on international commerce. As we witness these shifts, the question arises: How can the soybean industry innovate to meet global standards while maintaining its economic stronghold? China's strategic response, which targets influential American companies like PVH Corp., adds complexity to the global trade narrative. The placement of a major U.S. brand on China's 'unreliable entity' list highlights the power dynamics involved in international commerce. This situation prompts us to consider the interconnectedness of economies and the potential for unforeseen alliances or conflicts. What strategies can businesses implement to navigate these challenging circumstances? Ultimately, the soybean saga is more than a tale of trade disputes; it's a call to action for innovation, sustainability, and strategic foresight in the agricultural sector. As we watch this unfold, we are inspired to question not just the survival of soybeans but the very nature of global economic relationships in an era where every move on the trade chessboard can alter the game. How will the soybean industry, and indeed, international trade, evolve in response to these challenges?
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by UDIS_View
$NIO Price will see a rally to $30 during the coming China rallyNYSE:NIO is an EV maker in China, that moves close to AMEX:KWEB and other ETFs. We didn't see the stock price move like during this TVC:HSI or NYSE:BABA rally, where the large Chinese equities were bid up this week. Instead, NIO has stayed flat. Looking at the historic structure, and NIO's pattern today, I compare them and form a conclusion that this marks the beginning of the rally. I think that the bottom is in, and that this 'triple dives' pattern represents a large reversal pattern, dating back 1 year. Just come back to this chart 12 months from now, and tell me what you think. Update: Look at the tilt of the support lines and compare them to each other.
NYSE:NIOLong
by CapitalintheCity
12
$NTES NETEASE to benefit from Chinese stimulus.NetEase, Inc. is a prominent Chinese internet technology firm established by Ding Lei in June 1997. The company offers a diverse range of online services encompassing content, community engagement, communication, and commerce. It specializes in the development and operation of online games for both PC and mobile platforms, alongside advertising, email services, and e-commerce solutions within China. As one of the largest players in the global internet and video game industry, NetEase also manages several pig farms. Additionally, it features an on-demand music streaming service. Notable video game titles from NetEase include Fantasy Westward Journey, Tianxia III, Heroes of Tang Dynasty Zero, and Ghost II. From 2008 to 2023, the company was responsible for the Chinese versions of popular Blizzard Entertainment games, including World of Warcraft, StarCraft II, and Overwatch. In August 2023, NetEase unveiled a new American studio, spearheaded by veterans from Bethesda and BioWare.
NASDAQ:NTESLong
by BallaJi
Chinese Internet Stocks on the Edge: KWEB vs. FXI Introduction: The Chinese internet sector AMEX:KWEB is at a critical juncture when compared to large-cap Chinese stocks AMEX:FXI . The ratio between these two reflects sector leadership—if KWEB outperforms, it signals renewed strength in internet stocks and suggests the sector is leading. Current Market Context: Potential Breakdown: The KWEB-to-FXI ratio is teetering near key support. A breakdown here would be a bearish signal for Chinese internet stocks. Bullish Outlook: However, bulls are closely watching for signs of outperformance from KWEB, which could indicate the start of a new bullish trend. Higher-Low Formation: If the ratio forms a higher low relative to its long-term trend, it would be a sign of potential strength in the internet sector. Key Levels to Watch: Support: Monitor the ratio’s current support level closely. A breakdown below this could lead to increased selling pressure on KWEB. Resistance: A breakout above recent highs would indicate renewed outperformance and signal a bullish rotation into internet stocks. Conclusion: KWEB is at a make-or-break point, and the coming days could determine its fate. If the sector can establish a higher low and break above resistance, it could signal a bullish shift for Chinese internet stocks. Will KWEB lead, or will large-cap Chinese stocks maintain their dominance? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! Charts: (Include a chart showing the KWEB-to-FXI ratio, marking key support, resistance, and any signs of higher-low formations.) Tags: #KWEB #FXI #ChineseStocks #InternetSector #SectorLeadership #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends #China
AMEX:KWEB
by Richtv_official
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/06]: Correction Looms SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing USD 2.25/ton higher by 07/Feb (Fri). SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.05/ton on 03/Feb (Mon) and closed at USD 107.30/ton on 07/Feb (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 107.50/ton on 07/Feb (Fri) and a low of USD 102.00/ton on 03/Feb (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 5.50/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week. Prices traded between the pivot point of USD 105.35 and S1 point of 103.85 throughout the week, crossing the R1 point of USD 107.20/ton on Fri and closing above it. Volume peaked on 07/Jan (Fri) with volume increasing significantly compared to the previous week levels. Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary Dalian iron ore futures reached a four-month high, posting strong weekly gains. The recovery was driven by steel mills resuming production, increased activity in the property sector, and rising Chinese equities after the Lunar New Year. China filed a WTO complaint against new U.S. tariffs and urged dialogue. While trade tensions remain a concern, steel-related commodities continued to rise, with steelmaking ingredients and Shanghai Futures Exchange benchmarks posting strong gains. Iron ore futures rebounded as a softer U.S. dollar (-0.4%) made commodities more affordable for global buyers. Additionally, Rio Tinto cleared ships from Western Australian ports due to cyclone threats, adding a risk premium to prices. China's port IO stockpiles rose by 4.63 million tons (+3.19%) WoW to 149.91 million tons for the week ending 07/Feb per MMI data. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Mar contract trades 17.3% below its last 5-year average (USD 125.16/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Bullish Trend, But Correction Looms Formation of a golden cross on 17/ Jan (Fri) followed by upward trend for three weeks indicating that the bullishness may sustain in the near term. Prices are trading above both the short-term moving averages. Long-Term Averages Indicate Convergence of Moving Averages IO prices crossed and closed significantly above the 200-day DMA. Signaling a strengthening bullish trend as prices beats the 200-day DMA, with a probability of convergence between long-term moving averages. MACD Signals Bullish Momentum; RSI Inching Towards Overbought Zone The MACD signals a positive momentum starting from 14/Jan with growing bullishness observed last week. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 65.08, is inching towards the overbought zone and it hovers above the midpoint, with its RSI-based moving average at 60.97. Volatility Rose, Price Closed Above 50% Fibonacci Level Volatility gained upward momentum late in the week. Prices traded between the 38.2% Fibonacci level (USD 103.10/ton) and the 61.8% level (USD 107.62/ton), closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Going forward, 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.62/ton) may act as resistance, with 50.0% Fibonacci level (USD 105.36/ton) as support. Buying Pressure Intensified, Price Trading Near the Upper-Bollinger Bands Buying pressure has intensified in the later part of the week according to the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator. The price is trading between the upper-volume node and basis-volume node, closing the week near the upper-volume node. IO Prices Rise Towards CNY & Then Decline Thereafter Between 2021 & 2024, SGX IO futures prices have risen leading up to the Chinese New Year before tapering off ten trading days after the holiday. Prices declined before & after CNY holidays only in 2024 while prices continued to rise even after CNY before falling sharply in 2021 & 2022. A similar trend was observed in the ten-day period leading up to CNY 2025. IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIs) are net long with 136.6k lots across all futures expiries. Managed Money participants, Physicals participants and Others are net short with 15.5k, 103.5k and 17.3k lots respectively across all futures expires. Managed Money decreased net short positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures open interest was 1,179,418 lots as of 31/Jan stood at lots (-3.5%) while it was 1,222,981 lots as of 24/Jan. Source: SGX IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIs) are net long with 133.2k lots across all futures & options expiries. Managed Money participants, Physicals participants and Others are net short with 7.0k, 106.9k and 19.2k lots respectively across all futures and options expires. Managed Money decreased net short positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures and options open interest was 1,421,263 as of 31/Jan stood at lots (-5.2%) while it was 1,499,318 lots as of 24/Jan. Source: SGX Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants Physical participants have switched from net long to net short over the last three weeks. Managed Money participants have maintained net short positions for the past month. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of this year. Source: SGX Hypothetical Trade Setup Prices are currently trading above short-term moving averages and significantly above both long-term moving averages, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band, which suggests potential resistance at these levels. Historical trends indicate a pattern of price declines in the last three days of the 10-day period following the Chinese Lunar New Year, a movement that could potentially repeat this year. While managed money participants have reduced their short positions over the past two weeks, signaling a more optimistic outlook, we take a contrarian view and recommend a short position strategy this week, anticipating a potential price correction from current levels. The hypothetical trade setup involves entering a short position at USD 107.6/ton with a take profit level at USD 104.3/ton combined with a stop loss at USD 109.0/ton resulting in a 2.35x reward-to-risk ratio. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
China - U.S. Tariff Trade War!🩸China has slapped the U.S. with 10% tariffs on Energy products & automobiles as a retaliation🩸 China’s tariffs on U.S. energy & cars will hurt American exporters by reducing demand & pushing down prices, affecting profitability. Energy producers may struggle with oversupply, while automakers like Tesla and Ford face declining sales in China. The move escalates U.S.-China trade tensions, discouraging investment and increasing market volatility. While lower energy prices could help inflation, job losses in key industries may offset any benefits. U.S. policymakers might respond with countermeasures. If tensions rise further, a broader trade conflict could emerge, increasing risks for the global economy.
TVC:DXY
by BA_Investments
Apple Surges 3% in Premarket Amid AI Optimism & Strong ForecastApple Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AAPL ) has seen a notable 3.46% surge in premarket trading, defying concerns over declining China sales. The upward momentum follows an optimistic sales forecast, hinting at a resurgence in iPhone demand fueled by Apple's strategic adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) features. Earnings Outlook Apple’s latest earnings report revealed a nuanced performance, with robust overall revenue counterbalanced by a slight dip in iPhone sales. Despite a shortfall in China, where revenue declined 11% to $18.5 billion—falling short of the projected $21.57 billion—Apple’s services unit exhibited strong growth, climbing 14% year-over-year to $26.34 billion. This exceeded Wall Street expectations of $26.09 billion, reinforcing Apple’s ability to diversify revenue streams beyond hardware sales. CEO Tim Cook emphasized that Apple Intelligence, the company’s AI-powered suite of features, is playing a crucial role in boosting iPhone sales where available. However, Apple’s cautious approach to AI investments, unlike its peers such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META), has insulated its stock from recent market turbulence. The restrained AI strategy aligns with Apple's focus on integrating AI within its hardware ecosystem, enhancing device functionality without excessive capital expenditure on data centers. The company posted earnings of $2.42 per share on revenue of $124.3 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.36 EPS on $124.12 billion revenue. While iPhone sales, accounting for nearly half of Apple's revenue, declined to $69.14 billion from $69.70 billion year-over-year, the broader growth trajectory suggests a potential iPhone rebound in FY26. Technical Outlook From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:AAPL is demonstrating strong bullish patterns. The stock is currently up 3.41%, benefiting from the renewed confidence in its growth trajectory. Prior to this recent rally, Apple shares had experienced a 15% decline since late December 2024. However, the current price action suggests a recovery, with NASDAQ:AAPL reclaiming 10% of its lost value, forming a falling wedge pattern—a historically bullish signal. The premarket surge sets up the possibility of a gap-up pattern at market open, a strong bullish indicator that could further accelerate buying pressure. In the event of a pullback, immediate support lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a key level that often dictates price reversals in technical analysis. The China Factor and AI’s Role in Future Growth While Apple’s sales slump in China remains a wildcard, analysts expect a recovery once Apple Intelligence is introduced in the region. The lack of AI features has been cited as a major reason for weaker-than-expected sales in the Chinese market. TD Cowen analysts predict that demand could rebound once Apple secures a local partner to facilitate AI integration, boosting sales in a highly competitive market. Moreover, Apple's performance relative to its tech peers remains strong. In 2024, Apple stock surged 30.07%, outperforming Microsoft’s 12.09% increase but trailing Meta’s impressive 65.42% rise. Apple’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 31.12, compared to Microsoft’s 29.2 and Meta’s 26, indicating sustained investor confidence in Apple’s long-term growth potential. AAPL Positioned for Further Gains Apple’s ability to weather market challenges, coupled with its strategic AI rollout, positions it favorably for continued growth. The bullish technical setup, strong fundamentals, and AI-driven sales optimism indicate that AAPL could maintain its upward trajectory. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as further developments regarding Apple Intelligence’s expansion into new markets. With analysts raising price targets and market sentiment improving, Apple’s stock could be on track for a sustained rally in 2024 and beyond.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by DEXWireNews
New ai Model QWEN 2.5 could be catalyst for BABA - Target 200Baba just released Qwen 2.5, an ai model that is rated to be as good or better as DeepSeek and Chat gpt. This might serve as an additionally revenue stream to an already cheap stock. More importantly, it can serve as a catalyst to ignite investor interest and stock demand. Currently around 10 pe (seeking alpha data), multiple expansion and eps growth could boost BABA into the 200s or higher given a long term outlook. While the US seeks many ai stocks at high multiple of revenue and earnings, chinese stocks are way cheaper and in theory have less price risk. However, they still have geo political and currency risks. Baba has a large cash pile. This not only makes it slightly less risky, it also serves as potential ammunition for further innovation, acquisitions, or worst case, cash returned to investors.
NYSE:BABALong
by ValuePig
2000 $CSCO vs 2025 $NVDA, is the similar crash possible?🚨 Could Nvidia be the next Cisco? 🚨 In 2000, Cisco dominated networking with its own chips. But competitors used cheaper, nearly as effective chips, and the stock dropped from $82 to $8 in just 2 years. Is the same fate possible for Nvidia? Cisco invested heavily in its IOS CLI and aggressively defended it. Nvidia did the same with CUDA, taking action against anyone trying to make alternatives. But now, competition is heating up. DeepSeek and other companies could lead those who over-invested in Nvidia chips on borrowed money to offload them, flooding the second-hand market with GPUs. Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 might slow down orders since they already have tons of Nvidia chips stockpiled. Just like Cisco switches were 80% off in 2001, could we see a similar scenario with Nvidia? And let’s talk about the $2000 RTX 5090 — would you buy one today? Nvidia has committed huge resources to TSMC for chip production. They could be facing an overstock issue, and slashing prices could hurt profit margins. 😬 We will soon know the direction it will go, next few quarters will show us all.
NASDAQ:CSCO
by ProfitTradeRoom
NVIDIA (NVDA): DeepSeek’s AI Shakeup Sends Nvidia PlummetingNvidia is down an astonishing 15% in just a few hours. The primary driver? Fundamentally, the announcement of Chinese startup DeepSeek has sent shockwaves through the market. This previously unknown company reportedly holds a significant number of Nvidia chips and claims to have developed an AI superior to ChatGPT with just a $6 million investment. This disrupts the entire tech landscape, as companies like Google and others are pouring billions into AI research and development. The news casts doubt on the competitive edge of industry giants, and Nvidia is caught in the crossfire, given its strong ties to AI development and chip demand. From a technical perspective, Nvidia recently respected the upper boundary of its volume profile but failed to break above it—a likely factor contributing to this sell-off, though the DeepSeek announcement remains the major catalyst. The price has now dropped back to the Point of Control (POC) at $120, leaving a significant gap behind. While a complete gap fill would be surprising in the short term, it’s not out of the question. However, we’re not looking to catch a falling knife here. Given the uncertainty around potential developments with DeepSeek, caution is important. Our current plan is as follows: We are keeping the stop-loss for our first position at $114.50 to limit risk. A second entry is being considered in the range between $111 and $106.70, as this aligns well with both the wave ((ii)) structure and the volume profile. This plan is not yet finalised, as we’re closely monitoring how the situation unfolds. For now, patience is key, given the volatility and the ongoing uncertainty.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
AUD/USD slides on Trump tariff threatsThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6252, down 0.62%.  Investors are keeping a closer eye on the third-quarter inflation report, which will be released early on Wednesday. CPI is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.8%. This is the final tier-1 event prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate meeting on Feb. 18 and could be the determining factor as to whether the RBA finally lowers interest rates. The markets have priced in about an 80% chance of a quarter-point cut at the February meeting. The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% since Nov. 2023 and has been an outlier among other major central banks, most of which have entered an easing cycle. The US dollar is showing broad strength today, after US President Trump said on Monday that he would impose tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper imported to the U.S. Trump reiterated that he plans to levy a baseline universal tariff on all imports. Trump's tariff plans would likely raise inflation and could destabilize the financial markets, which displayed strong swings during Trump's first week in office. China's services and manufacturing sectors both decelerated in January and missed expectations. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2, down from 52.2 in December and shy of the forecast of 51.8. With the exception of November, service activity has been stagnant, with readings barely above the 50 level, which separates expansion from contraction. Domestic demand weakened and the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies have dampened foreign sales. The manufacturing sector is struggling and contracted in January, easing to 49.1, compared to 50.1 in December and missing the market estimate of 50.1. This was the first contraction since September 2024 and the sharpest decline in five months. Manufacturing output and foreign orders weakened in January and the weak global economy could mean further headwinds in 2025 for the manufacturing sector. China's government has implemented stimulus measures in order to boost the economy and GDP hit 5% in 2024. Still, deflation has persisted and consumer spending remains weak. The government will have to inject further stimulus in order to boost domestic consumption, a key engine of economic growth. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6278. Below, there is support at 0.6225 0.6366 and 0.6419 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA