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Can the Yuan Dance to a New Tune?In the intricate ballet of global finance, the Chinese yuan performs a delicate maneuver. As Donald Trump's presidency introduces new variables with potential tariff hikes, the yuan faces depreciation pressures against a strengthening U.S. dollar. This dynamic challenges Beijing's economic strategists, who must balance the benefits of a weaker currency for exports against the risks of domestic economic instability and inflation. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is navigating this complex scenario with a focus on maintaining currency stability rather than aggressively stimulating growth through monetary policy easing. This cautious approach reflects a broader strategy to manage expectations and market reactions in an era where geopolitical shifts could dictate economic outcomes. The PBOC's recent moves, like suspending bond purchases and issuing warnings against speculative trades, illustrate a proactive stance in controlling the yuan's descent, aiming for an orderly adjustment rather than a chaotic fall. This situation provokes thought on the resilience and adaptability of China's economic framework. How will Beijing reconcile its growth ambitions with the currency's stability, especially under the looming shadow of U.S. trade policies? The interplay between these two economic giants will shape their bilateral relations and influence global trade patterns, investment flows, and perhaps even the future of monetary policy worldwide. As we watch this economic dance unfold, one must ponder the implications for international markets and the strategic responses from other global players.
Long
by UDIS_View
America's 500 correct Trump inauguration and second termDonald Trump's inauguration for his second term will shake the market to adapt to his fringe trade policies. The upcoming Trump Administration already announced to impose tariffs which will advance the cause for more domestic production, but as the general cost of goods will rise, so will inflation. The first correction of the market will set S&P500 below its 200-day average. As it is unclear which role the most influential billionaire of the world, Elon Musk, will have on government policies, the market will at least frown on this uncertainty, if not react to his announcements, that "it needs to get worse before it gets better" with overall sellout. Meanwhile, major trading counterparts in the world, namely Mexico and the EU prepared for a second term of the loathed-by-leaders protectionist. China, currently in unsettling nationwide economy cooldown, braces for upcoming conflicts with the sole remaining 20th century super-power, as the inevitable Battle for Taiwan would be the longed-for distraction and a cause to get the increasingly incredulous chinese people behind the ever-scrutinized leader Xi Jinping. The conflict will further impact the High Tech industry of the west, as despite measures to recess from dependencies with the powerful Chinese economy, certain resources and products are not yet available anywhere else. Leading analysts don't see a conflict with China happening for another 2 years, opening the chance for China's economy to recover and further depress the urge of its leading powers to find a unifying cause.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Johnny_TV
BABA 150+, looking forward and here is whyGoldman Sachs Is Bullish on China’s Stimulus I have selected BABA and want to consider buy the deep strategy and here is why. Alibaba’s stock has occasionally been undervalued compared to its peers, offering opportunities for investors seeking growth at a reasonable price. P/E = 11.6, which is one of my favorites ratios, when Amazons P/E higher 45 atm. Investing in Alibaba Group can be attractive for several reasons. First of all its still E-commerce Leadership in China. Alibaba is a dominant player in China’s massive e-commerce market (and not only in China), which has immense growth potential due to increasing internet penetration and consumer spending. Platforms like Taobao, Tmall, and Lazada position Alibaba as a market leader in both domestic and international markets. Alibaba not just a e-commerce marketplace and Babas Cloud is the largest cloud service provider in China and one of the global leaders, competing with Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. The cloud computing segment has been growing rapidly and has significant potential for profitability and scalability. And the last and the most significant case from BABA - they invest heavily in AI, logistics automation, fintech, and consumer analytics, keeping it at the forefront of technological advancements in its industry. Meantime geopolitical tensions, especially, U.S.-China trade tensions and potential delisting threats and slower economic growth in China could impact on stock prices.
NYSE:BABALong
by gorgevorgian
CHN50 intraday rallies to continue attract sellers?CHN50 - 24h expiry There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. A higher correction is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 13000 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 12750. We look to Sell at 13200 (stop at 13400) Our profit targets will be 12800 and 12750 Resistance: 13100 / 13200 / 13300 Support: 13000 / 12900 / 12750 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDShort
by OANDA
XIAOMI (1810): Another All-Time High Surpassed!A new all-time high has been reached 🎉 XIAOMI has been surging non-stop since August 2024, with our position now up 180% since our entry back in March. We are taking our next profit here and letting the rest run. Xiaomi experienced significant growth in 2024, bolstered by China’s economic development and government support. The Chinese government implemented subsidies to stimulate demand for electronics, heavily favoring the stock. These policies aimed to strengthen domestic consumption and accelerate technological modernization. In March 2024, Xiaomi introduced its first EV, the SU7 sedan. By November, the company exceeded its initial targets, raising its annual delivery forecast to 130,000 vehicles. Technically, it is safe to say that we are trading in a wave 3, but the key question remains: for how long and what price level will it target? Analyzing the chart, it makes the most sense to anticipate a very large and sharp wave 3, with the same dynamics for wave ((3)). While the possibility of even higher surges exists, historical patterns suggest the likelihood of a rounding top formation as multiple waves come to an end. We don’t believe our entry level will ever be retested, but we remain cautious with new entries for now, closely monitoring the chart for further developments.
HKEX:1810Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
China EV Market Weekly Update (W52) In the final week of December, NIO delivered 6,500 units, marking a 20% increase compared to the previous week and 14% YoY growth. For December, NIO's total registrations reached 20,000 units, with the ES6 (EL6 in Europe) and ET5 models dominating sales. Additionally, Onvo, NIO's sub-brand, registered 4,200 units of its L60 SUV (+101% WoW), contributing to a December total of 9,405 units. Key insights: Tesla posted 18,600 registrations (+6% WoW). Model Y remains the top seller, but Model 3 is gaining traction. BYD led the market with 72,100 registrations, though this was down 18% WoW and 6% YoY. Xpeng and Zeekr hit record numbers, with 10,100 and 8,900 registrations, respectively. 📈 Despite mixed signals across the EV sector, NIO’s growth is a promising indicator of its resilience in a competitive market. The rise in Onvo’s L60 SUV registrations further highlights potential in NIO's multi-brand strategy. I'm back in the game. I sold my entire position at 7.47 on September 30, and people thought I was crazy. Anyway, I recently bought back around 4.55. This stock is playing yo-yo with our nerves, haha. Next target? Early March 2025 (Fibonacci time extension) for a gain between +25% and +45%. Good luck to everyone! sorry for all the drawings, this is my personal chart.
NYSE:NIOLong
by Maximus20000
Long TIGR (Maybe Double Up) NASDAQ:TIGR is a fintech company incorporated in Singapore and headquartered in Beijing. Think HOOD for asian markets, and having direct access to those equities. From the chart you can see they clearly align with the China trade and do get a huge boost if we see China's market pick up. Current Position: Average Share Price $5.87 and continuing to buy this up. Options $6 12/20/2024 $4 01/17/2024 $5.50 04/17/2025 $5.50 01/16/2026 $5.50 01/15/2027 Still adding. I think $10 is pretty likely even in the short term, but obviously taking some long plays as well, and just picking my spots to grab options when IV is reasonable and I can get some deals. If the China / Asia trade gets some legs, I don't think $20-$25 is out of the question. My Reasoning They just did a pretty sizeable offering Oct 23 at $6.25 of 15 million shares, with underwriters getting the opportunity to buy an additional 2.25 million in the 20 days after the offering. (Which they did). This caused approximately 10% dilution to existing share holders. Share price held up pretty well and already trading well above the offering, even while the rest of China continues to downtrend or chop. 2024 Q3 - Revenue: $101 million - record high (44.1% year-over-year increase). - Net Revenue: $30.84 million - the highest in 3 years (15% year-over-year increase). - Net Income Attrib. to Ordinary Shareholders: $17.8 million (34.0% year-over-year increase). - Assets under management: $19.8 billion (115.9% year-over-year increase). - Funded Accounts: 1,035,000 (19.3% year-over-year increase). - Total Accounts: 2,370,000 (10.2% year-over-year increase). - Trading Volume: $163 billion, (103.1% year-over-year increase). - Net Profit Margin: 17.6% (-1.3% year-over-year decrease). All while the Asia trade has been pretty much a no go. In January 2024 they were issued a Type 1 license (Allowing crypto on the platform) and in July 2024 they got Type 9 license (Allowing client asset management services). Two other brokerages have also been given Type 1 licenses in 2024 FUTU and HKVAX (HKVAX also got type 7 for automated trading). FUTU is a significant competitor with 12x the market cap of TIGR, 2x the assets under management (grew 40% year-over-year), and 4x the revenue (grew 29% year-over-year), and greater brand recognition. But with 12x the market cap and lower growth numbers, TIGR seems like the better play for now, although I might add some FUTU as well. TIGR has not released specific geographic breakdowns but they have mentioned 75% of funded accounts are outside of mainland China (Q1 2024). Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, United States all mentioned as growth stories. They have a sizeable user base now, and growing rapidly. If you are long enough term you also just have the cultural tides in your favor as Asia, India are seeing retail investor participation increase rapidly. I look at this and see a double up just based on the companies growth story while Asia trade has been less than ideal . If we get an actual China pump 2.5x, 3x not out of the question. Risks I mean China right, TIGR is incorporated in Singapore which is slightly better and analysis would lead me to believe that a majority of their assets under management are in Singapore but we all know China could yank a license, attack Taiwan, or do some other bull and send the stock tumbling. It's a foreign company, the reporting requirements are different, more opaque, and harder to analyze. Other risks include just the history of the company, offerings are not super rare occurrences and the balance sheet historically is not pretty. This was not a well oiled machine from the beginning. Still a chance management blows it, you also have real competition with FUTU. However, you can't just luck into the numbers above so things are changing. IMHO.
NASDAQ:TIGRLong
by sliceofbytes
1
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/50]: Stimulus Rally FizzlesSGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in Jan 2025 rose last week closing USD 1.95/ton higher by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 102.85/ton on 09/Dec (Mon) and closed at USD 104.80/ton on 13/Dec (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 107.30/ton on 10/Dec (Tuesday) and a low of USD 102.55/ton on 09/Dec (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 4.75/ton during the week which was wider than the prior week. Prices tested the R2 pivot point on 10/Dec (Tue) but failed to pass the level. Price maintained support above the R1 pivot point of 104.75 till the end of the week. Volume peaked on 10/Dec (Tue) driven by the expanded stimulus announcement in China. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary IO started the week on a positive note with prices rallying 3% on 09/Dec (Mon) driven by news of expanded stimulus expected to arrive from the Central Economic Work Conference in China. Despite the rally on 09/Dec (Mon), economic releases on the day showed CPI declining 0.6% MoM (-0.4% E and -0.3% P) during November. Annual CPI also decelerated to 0.2% (0.5% E and 0.3% P) suggesting that the economy continues to be plagued by low domestic consumption. On 13/Dec (Fri), further economic data from China showed new loans decline 47% YoY to 580 billion yuan in November. Although the figure was 16% higher MoM, the annual decline shows low loan demand. Particularly, new housing and housing related loans remain subdued signaling a potential headwind to IO prices. On 12/Dec (Thu), China officially announced it would increase the budget deficit, issue more debt, and loosen monetary policy to stimulate the economy and maintain a stable economic growth rate. There were also reports that Chinese policymakers were considering allowing the Yuan to weaken next year to combat punitive trade measures expected from the US. Iron Ore imports to China fell 1.9% MoM in November to 101.862 million tons. The figure remains 3.9% higher YoY with the YTD figure 4.3% higher. Iron ore imports are expected to rebound in December. Iron Ore portside inventories rose by 820k tons WoW to 146.66 million tons according to data from SMM. The increase was driven by a significant increase in port arrivals which offset a smaller increase in pickup volume. Maintenance may lead to a further buildup next week. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Jan contract trades 14.6% below its last 5-year average (USD 121.73/ton). Seasonal trends suggest a rally in the coming weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average headed higher due to the rally at the start of last week. The price decline in the later part of the week led to a reversal as the 9-day MA is now curving downwards and approaching the 21-day moving average. Long-Term Averages Signal Retest of 200-day MA Price tested the 200-day moving average once again last week and managed to surpass it for some time before reversing and heading lower once again. Price remains well above the 100-day moving average which may provide support in case of a decline. MACD Points to Fading Rally Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.67 signals a neutral level. However, RSI has continued to trend lower since it signaled a crossover with its MA late last week. MACD is narrowing from its positive level and is close to marking a bearish crossover between the 12-day and 26-day MA which could signal a period of decline. Volatility Rebounds from 1Y Low, Fibonacci 50% Signals Resistance Volatility rebounded from its 1Y low last week to edge slightly higher to 19.19. Though, volatility still remains muted. Last week, prices retested the 50% Fibonacci level at USD 105.4/ton once more which continues to act as resistance. Chart Signals Flat Top Pattern The IO futures chart signals a flat top technical pattern with prices having tested the USD 107/ton level multiple times. The lower and of the range shows a widening channel which could suggest a lower low than previously seen in mid-November. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices surged early last week but gave up some gains by the end of the week. Prices retested its resistance levels once more but were rejected. Price also significantly lags the seasonal trend suggesting that the end-year seasonal rally may not materialize this year. Last week’s stimulus announcement failed to provide long-lasting momentum to the rally and prices are trending lower once more at the start of the week. The declining flat top chart pattern suggests that prices could head lower this time around. This provides a favorable entry for a short position in Iron Ore. However, given significant support levels above that, it may be prudent to choose a slightly higher target. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO January Futures Contract at USD 105.00/ton with a stop at USD 108/ton and target at USD 100/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67x. Each lot of SGX IO Futures Contract provides exposure to 100 tons of iron ore. For each lot, the hypothetical trade would result in gain of USD 500/lot ((105 – 100) x 100) while exposing the trade to a loss of USD 300/lot. This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,188/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,080/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
Alibaba (BABA): Stimulus Hopes Fade, Correction Ahead?We secured solid profits on NYSE:BABA , with a significant rejection at the breakout gap. The stock is now under pressure, facing potential headwinds due to Donald Trump’s presidency and his proposed tariffs. While Chinese stocks surged recently, driven by Beijing’s increased rhetoric around stimulus ahead of a key policymakers’ meeting, the lack of any immediate announcements until March’s National People’s Congress may dampen sentiment. Despite NYSE:BABA dropping pre-market and likely throughout the week, our strategy remains unchanged. With partial profits taken and the stop-loss at break-even, we are not exposed to unnecessary risk. As long as NYSE:BABA continues trading above $82, the position remains stable unless major news changes the outlook.
NYSE:BABALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
$NASDAQ:BILI Breakout soon? As you can see on the chart, NASDAQ:BILI has been trending towards a breakout from the downwards trendline created during the 2021 crash (1W Chart). Following the bullish channel created shortly after the double bottom confirmation back in Jan 2024, we can speculate billy to soon challenge the $40 dollar range. Things to look out for: bounce from the 100 EMA. RSI crossover (w/ conviction). Overall bullish. Let me know what your thoughts are on $NASDAQ:BILI. NFA.
NASDAQ:BILILong
by WaitingonSpaceXipo
1
$ATAT Shop 'Til You Drop (or need to go back to your room)Chinese consumer names caught a major bump today, with a broad group each up around 10% Atour Lifestyle Holdings operates specialty hotel chains with "a personalized immersive shopping destination that guides guests from discovery to purchase". I bought the May '25 $40 calls for around $1.30 each, looking for a continuation of the breakout. I think these are the kind of pitches we want to be swinging at right now. What about you?
NASDAQ:ATATLong
by egatlinburg
1
FXI to $55.00 someday ?FXI , the most representative ETF of the Chinese stock market, reflects, in our view, a 15-year stagnation that contrasts with the remarkable economic growth China has experienced during the same period. Since May 2008, the FXI has unsuccessfully attempted to break above the $55.00 level, registering relative highs at the following points: May 2008: $55.00 April 2015: $52.85 January 2018: $54.00 February 2021: $54.53 At the same time, since October 2008, the ETF appears to have established a support level near $20.00, with notable lows at: October 2008: $19.35 October 2022: $20.87 January 2024: $20.86 A key level: $33.73 Currently, FXI is attempting to break above $33.73, which corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This calculation is based on the relative high of $54.53 (February 2021) and the lows recorded in October 2022 ($20.87) and January 2024 ($20.86). In October 2024, the price temporarily surpassed this level, driven by high volume, reaching the 0.50 level ($37.70). However, this movement was short-lived and lacked follow-through. The key question Will FXI manage to decisively break through the $33.73 (0.382) level in the coming days? And if so, will it reach the following key Fibonacci levels? $37.70 (0.50) $41.67 (0.618) $47.32 (0.786) $54.53 (1.00) While FXI is still far from breaking through the $55.00 barrier, a sustained move from the $20.86 lows could signal a historic trend shift, challenging the ceiling that has capped its price for the past 15 years. Our opinion is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. Before making any investment, consult with your financial advisor.
AMEX:FXI
by SHGTrading
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY November/2024 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 0.2% in November 2024 from 0.3% in the previous month, falling short of market forecasts of 0.5% and marking the lowest figure since June. This slowdown highlighted mounting deflation risks in the country despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing and the central bank's supportive monetary policy stance. Food prices rose the least in four months (1.0% vs 2.9% in October), driven by softer increases in both fresh vegetables and pork. Meantime, non-food prices remained unchanged (vs -0.3% in October), with further rises in the cost of healthcare (1.1% vs. 1.1%) and education (1.0% vs 0.8%) and more declines in prices of transport (-3.6% vs -4.8%) and housing (-0.1% vs -0.1%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% yoy, the most in 3 months, after a 0.2% gain in October. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.6%, surpassing October's 0.3% fall and the estimated 0.4% drop while pointing to the sharpest decrease since March.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/49]: Near Term Bearish Trend SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in Jan 2025 fell last week closing USD 1.85/ton lower by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 104.4/ton on 02/Dec (Mon) and closed at USD 102.55/ton on 06/Dec (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 105.70/ton on 04/Dec (Wed) and a low of USD 102.25/ton on 06/Dec (Fri). It traded in a range of USD 3.45/ton during the week. Prices traded above the pivot point for most of the week but did not manage to pass the R1 weekly pivot point of USD 106.05/ton. Price dipped below the pivot point of USD 103.20/ton on 06/Dec (Fri) Volume peaked on 04/Dec (Wed). Fundamentals in Summary Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in November from 50.3 in the prior month, above analyst expectations of a 50.6 reading and the highest reading since June. PMI data has shown a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector over the past 3 months reflecting improved demand following the stimulus announcement. Caixin China non-manufacturing PMI eased to 51.5 from 52 reflecting a slowdown in the service sector. This week, traders will be watching for the CPI release for November on 9/Dec (Mon). In October, CPI fell 0.3% MoM and eased to 0.3% YoY, its lowest reading since June reflecting continued struggles in domestic demand. The annual Central Economic Work Conference is scheduled for 11/Dec (Wed) where leaders are expected to map out economic targets and stimulus plans. Rumors that a higher-than-usual deficit target for 2025 could be set spurred a rally in Chinese stocks last week. IO China Portside inventories fell by 100k tons to 150.4 million tons in the week ending 6/Nov, extending its decline from the prior week according to data from the CISA. Elevated inventory levels could limit demand for further imports. SMM expects construction to enter its traditional off-season in December with no new projects scheduled for now. However, several major central government meetings and the year-end housing project delivery remain key events to watch and could catalyze a rally. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Jan contract trades 13.4% below its last 5-year average (USD 118.94/ton). Seasonal trends suggest a rally in the coming weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Fading Bullish Trend While the 9-day moving average has remained above the 21-day MA since marking a bullish MA crossover on 29/Nov, the price decline in the later part of last week drove price below the 9-day MA and it has started to flatten suggesting the rally may be losing steam. Price trades above the 21-day MA which could serve as a support level. Long-Term Averages Signal Reversal from 200-day MA Price tested the 200-day moving average last week but the level acted as resistance with price failing to pass it. Price remains well above the 100-day MA at 100.31. However, if the 21-day MA fails to provide support, this level could be tested next. MACD Points to Fading Rally Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.04 signals a neutral level. However, the RSI marked a crossover with its MA suggesting the price could face a period of negative returns. MACD is narrowing from its positive level and is close to marking a bearish crossover between the 12-day and 26-day MA which could signal a period of decline. Volatility Eases to 1Y Low, Fibonacci 50% Signals Resistance Volatility continued to decline and reached its lowest level in more than a year. Last week, prices retested the 50% Fibonacci level at USD 105.4/ton once more which has previously acted as resistance. With price declining, it could suggest a continuation of the bearish trend following the rejection at the Fibonacci level. Prices at Top End of Declining Channel Prices have traded in a declining parallel channel following the stimulus driven rally in late-September. Prices are currently just below the top end of the parallel channel which could represent a favorable entry level for a short position. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices reversed the early week gains last week to end the week lower. 12-day and 26-day MA are close to signaling a bearish crossover following the price rejection at the 200-day moving average last week. This could signal a near-term bearish trend. With prices at the top end of a declining channel, this could provide a favorable entry for a short position. However, given the low volatility and the strong support at USD 100/ton, the decline could be smaller than previous weeks. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO January Futures Contract at USD 103/ton with a stop at USD 105.5/ton and target at USD 100/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.2x. Each lot of SGX IO Futures Contract provides exposure to 100 tons of iron ore. For each lot, the hypothetical trade would result in gain of USD 300/lot ((103 – 100) x 100) while exposing the trade to a loss of USD 250/lot. This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,188/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,080/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEFF2025Short
by MintBulkCommods
China’s $83 Billion Gold Discovery: Fuels Bullish MomentumChina Discovers $83 Billion Gold Reserves in Hunan China has uncovered gold reserves valued at approximately $82.9 billion (600 billion yuan) in Hunan province, according to state media Xinhua. This discovery solidifies China’s position as the world’s largest gold producer, contributing roughly 10% to global output in 2023. The reserves, located in Pingjiang County, feature over 40 gold ore veins at a depth of 2,000 meters, with a core resource of 300.2 tons and grades reaching up to 138 grams per ton. Experts forecast more than 1,000 tons of reserves at greater depths. Despite its significant production capacity, China remains a net importer of gold to meet domestic demand, with consumption far exceeding output in the first three quarters of 2023. Gold prices have seen a surge this year, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, further highlighting the strategic importance of this discovery. Gold Technical Analysis Gold is currently exhibiting a strong bullish trend, supported by the stabilization of the weekly candle in bullish territory. Here’s the refined analysis: Bullish Scenario: As long as the price stays above 2644 and 2625, we anticipate a push towards 2678, 2706, and 2739. A breakout above 2739 could lead to new all-time highs at 2787 and 2838. Bearish Scenario: For a bearish outlook to materialize, the price must break 2625 on a daily candle, potentially targeting 2585 and 2558. However, this scenario remains less likely under current conditions. Outlook: The bullish scenario is favored due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and China's significant gold provisions, including the recently announced reserves of 1,100 tons. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2644 Resistance Levels: 2678, 2706, 2739, 2787, 2838 Support Levels: 2625, 2612, 2585 Trend Outlook: Uptrend This analysis highlights the robust upward momentum in gold, underpinned by global uncertainties and China's strategic reserve accumulation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
1
CHINA50 price action forming a bottom?CHN50 - 24h expiry Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Further upside is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 13300 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 13550. We look to Buy at 13175 (stop at 13025) Our profit targets will be 13575 and 13640 Resistance: 13300 / 13525 / 13600 Support: 13175 / 13100 / 13050 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDLong
by OANDA
SHOCKING! 40% tariffs on Chinese imports!According to a survey of economists by Reuters, the U.S. is considering imposing nearly 40% tariffs on Chinese imports early next year. Such measures could slow the growth of the world’s second-largest economy by 1%. Economists polled by the publication, both Democrats and Republicans, believe these changes will trigger massive disruptions in the U.S. and global economies, surpassing the impact of the trade wars during Trump’s first term. They warn this could ignite a “global trade war.” During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised significant tariffs on Chinese goods as part of his “America First” trade policy. These potential tariffs, much higher than the 7.5%-25% rates of his first term, come at a vulnerable time for China’s economy, which is grappling with a prolonged real estate slump, debt risks, and weak domestic demand. Most economists predict Trump will impose the tariffs in early 2025, with an average estimate of 38% and projections ranging from 15% to 60%. These tariffs are expected to reduce China’s economic growth in 2025 by about 0.5-1.0 percentage points. What could Trump’s policy lead to? Chinese indexes: Chinese stock indexes like #ChinaA50 and the Hang Seng Index (#HSI) are expected to face downward pressure. Chinese corporations: Key sectors such as electronics, automotive, and textiles—heavily reliant on exports to the U.S.—are likely to suffer the most. Major Chinese corporations, including #Alibaba and other leading players, could see their stock values decline. U.S. Indexes: American indexes like #SP500 and Dow Jones (#DJI30) might experience short-term volatility. Tariffs will raise costs for U.S. companies dependent on Chinese supplies, such as those in tech, automotive, and consumer goods sectors—companies like #Apple, #Tesla, and #Nike may face increased production costs. This could reduce profitability and potentially lead to stock corrections. In the long term, however, the U.S. might benefit from the trade war, as it could boost domestic production, positively impacting American manufacturing stocks. FreshForex analysts predict a growth phase to begin in late Q1 2025 . At the same time, on November 14, investors sharply increased short positions in Asian currencies following Trump’s tariff announcements.
TVC:HSIShort
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
CRYPTO OWNERSHIP LEGAL IN CHINA = $NEO BULLISHA judge in a Singaporean court has ruled cryptocurrency ownership is now legal in China. What does this mean? NEO is China's top cryptocurrency, also referred to as "Chinese Ethereum" with large stimulus recently been given to Chinese, and the fact the Crypto is now legal is China, we are about to see NEO wake up. I'm predicting an early classic cup and handle set up will come, and who knows where NEO will rise to.. $100? $250? $500? Who knows, but with China now legalizing crypto NASDAQ:NEO is about to go up to a whole different level, and I'm prepared... Are you?
Long
by REFLOWABLE
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