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Long TIGR (Maybe Double Up) NASDAQ:TIGR is a fintech company incorporated in Singapore and headquartered in Beijing. Think HOOD for asian markets, and having direct access to those equities. From the chart you can see they clearly align with the China trade and do get a huge boost if we see China's market pick up. Current Position: Average Share Price $5.87 and continuing to buy this up. Options $6 12/20/2024 $4 01/17/2024 $5.50 04/17/2025 $5.50 01/16/2026 $5.50 01/15/2027 Still adding. I think $10 is pretty likely even in the short term, but obviously taking some long plays as well, and just picking my spots to grab options when IV is reasonable and I can get some deals. If the China / Asia trade gets some legs, I don't think $20-$25 is out of the question. My Reasoning They just did a pretty sizeable offering Oct 23 at $6.25 of 15 million shares, with underwriters getting the opportunity to buy an additional 2.25 million in the 20 days after the offering. (Which they did). This caused approximately 10% dilution to existing share holders. Share price held up pretty well and already trading well above the offering, even while the rest of China continues to downtrend or chop. 2024 Q3 - Revenue: $101 million - record high (44.1% year-over-year increase). - Net Revenue: $30.84 million - the highest in 3 years (15% year-over-year increase). - Net Income Attrib. to Ordinary Shareholders: $17.8 million (34.0% year-over-year increase). - Assets under management: $19.8 billion (115.9% year-over-year increase). - Funded Accounts: 1,035,000 (19.3% year-over-year increase). - Total Accounts: 2,370,000 (10.2% year-over-year increase). - Trading Volume: $163 billion, (103.1% year-over-year increase). - Net Profit Margin: 17.6% (-1.3% year-over-year decrease). All while the Asia trade has been pretty much a no go. In January 2024 they were issued a Type 1 license (Allowing crypto on the platform) and in July 2024 they got Type 9 license (Allowing client asset management services). Two other brokerages have also been given Type 1 licenses in 2024 FUTU and HKVAX (HKVAX also got type 7 for automated trading). FUTU is a significant competitor with 12x the market cap of TIGR, 2x the assets under management (grew 40% year-over-year), and 4x the revenue (grew 29% year-over-year), and greater brand recognition. But with 12x the market cap and lower growth numbers, TIGR seems like the better play for now, although I might add some FUTU as well. TIGR has not released specific geographic breakdowns but they have mentioned 75% of funded accounts are outside of mainland China (Q1 2024). Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, United States all mentioned as growth stories. They have a sizeable user base now, and growing rapidly. If you are long enough term you also just have the cultural tides in your favor as Asia, India are seeing retail investor participation increase rapidly. I look at this and see a double up just based on the companies growth story while Asia trade has been less than ideal . If we get an actual China pump 2.5x, 3x not out of the question. Risks I mean China right, TIGR is incorporated in Singapore which is slightly better and analysis would lead me to believe that a majority of their assets under management are in Singapore but we all know China could yank a license, attack Taiwan, or do some other bull and send the stock tumbling. It's a foreign company, the reporting requirements are different, more opaque, and harder to analyze. Other risks include just the history of the company, offerings are not super rare occurrences and the balance sheet historically is not pretty. This was not a well oiled machine from the beginning. Still a chance management blows it, you also have real competition with FUTU. However, you can't just luck into the numbers above so things are changing. IMHO.
NASDAQ:TIGRLong
by sliceofbytes
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/50]: Stimulus Rally FizzlesSGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in Jan 2025 rose last week closing USD 1.95/ton higher by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 102.85/ton on 09/Dec (Mon) and closed at USD 104.80/ton on 13/Dec (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 107.30/ton on 10/Dec (Tuesday) and a low of USD 102.55/ton on 09/Dec (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 4.75/ton during the week which was wider than the prior week. Prices tested the R2 pivot point on 10/Dec (Tue) but failed to pass the level. Price maintained support above the R1 pivot point of 104.75 till the end of the week. Volume peaked on 10/Dec (Tue) driven by the expanded stimulus announcement in China. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary IO started the week on a positive note with prices rallying 3% on 09/Dec (Mon) driven by news of expanded stimulus expected to arrive from the Central Economic Work Conference in China. Despite the rally on 09/Dec (Mon), economic releases on the day showed CPI declining 0.6% MoM (-0.4% E and -0.3% P) during November. Annual CPI also decelerated to 0.2% (0.5% E and 0.3% P) suggesting that the economy continues to be plagued by low domestic consumption. On 13/Dec (Fri), further economic data from China showed new loans decline 47% YoY to 580 billion yuan in November. Although the figure was 16% higher MoM, the annual decline shows low loan demand. Particularly, new housing and housing related loans remain subdued signaling a potential headwind to IO prices. On 12/Dec (Thu), China officially announced it would increase the budget deficit, issue more debt, and loosen monetary policy to stimulate the economy and maintain a stable economic growth rate. There were also reports that Chinese policymakers were considering allowing the Yuan to weaken next year to combat punitive trade measures expected from the US. Iron Ore imports to China fell 1.9% MoM in November to 101.862 million tons. The figure remains 3.9% higher YoY with the YTD figure 4.3% higher. Iron ore imports are expected to rebound in December. Iron Ore portside inventories rose by 820k tons WoW to 146.66 million tons according to data from SMM. The increase was driven by a significant increase in port arrivals which offset a smaller increase in pickup volume. Maintenance may lead to a further buildup next week. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Jan contract trades 14.6% below its last 5-year average (USD 121.73/ton). Seasonal trends suggest a rally in the coming weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average headed higher due to the rally at the start of last week. The price decline in the later part of the week led to a reversal as the 9-day MA is now curving downwards and approaching the 21-day moving average. Long-Term Averages Signal Retest of 200-day MA Price tested the 200-day moving average once again last week and managed to surpass it for some time before reversing and heading lower once again. Price remains well above the 100-day moving average which may provide support in case of a decline. MACD Points to Fading Rally Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.67 signals a neutral level. However, RSI has continued to trend lower since it signaled a crossover with its MA late last week. MACD is narrowing from its positive level and is close to marking a bearish crossover between the 12-day and 26-day MA which could signal a period of decline. Volatility Rebounds from 1Y Low, Fibonacci 50% Signals Resistance Volatility rebounded from its 1Y low last week to edge slightly higher to 19.19. Though, volatility still remains muted. Last week, prices retested the 50% Fibonacci level at USD 105.4/ton once more which continues to act as resistance. Chart Signals Flat Top Pattern The IO futures chart signals a flat top technical pattern with prices having tested the USD 107/ton level multiple times. The lower and of the range shows a widening channel which could suggest a lower low than previously seen in mid-November. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices surged early last week but gave up some gains by the end of the week. Prices retested its resistance levels once more but were rejected. Price also significantly lags the seasonal trend suggesting that the end-year seasonal rally may not materialize this year. Last week’s stimulus announcement failed to provide long-lasting momentum to the rally and prices are trending lower once more at the start of the week. The declining flat top chart pattern suggests that prices could head lower this time around. This provides a favorable entry for a short position in Iron Ore. However, given significant support levels above that, it may be prudent to choose a slightly higher target. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO January Futures Contract at USD 105.00/ton with a stop at USD 108/ton and target at USD 100/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67x. Each lot of SGX IO Futures Contract provides exposure to 100 tons of iron ore. For each lot, the hypothetical trade would result in gain of USD 500/lot ((105 – 100) x 100) while exposing the trade to a loss of USD 300/lot. This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,188/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,080/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
Alibaba (BABA): Stimulus Hopes Fade, Correction Ahead?We secured solid profits on NYSE:BABA , with a significant rejection at the breakout gap. The stock is now under pressure, facing potential headwinds due to Donald Trump’s presidency and his proposed tariffs. While Chinese stocks surged recently, driven by Beijing’s increased rhetoric around stimulus ahead of a key policymakers’ meeting, the lack of any immediate announcements until March’s National People’s Congress may dampen sentiment. Despite NYSE:BABA dropping pre-market and likely throughout the week, our strategy remains unchanged. With partial profits taken and the stop-loss at break-even, we are not exposed to unnecessary risk. As long as NYSE:BABA continues trading above $82, the position remains stable unless major news changes the outlook.
NYSE:BABALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
$NASDAQ:BILI Breakout soon? As you can see on the chart, NASDAQ:BILI has been trending towards a breakout from the downwards trendline created during the 2021 crash (1W Chart). Following the bullish channel created shortly after the double bottom confirmation back in Jan 2024, we can speculate billy to soon challenge the $40 dollar range. Things to look out for: bounce from the 100 EMA. RSI crossover (w/ conviction). Overall bullish. Let me know what your thoughts are on $NASDAQ:BILI. NFA.
NASDAQ:BILILong
by WaitingonSpaceXipo
1
$ATAT Shop 'Til You Drop (or need to go back to your room)Chinese consumer names caught a major bump today, with a broad group each up around 10% Atour Lifestyle Holdings operates specialty hotel chains with "a personalized immersive shopping destination that guides guests from discovery to purchase". I bought the May '25 $40 calls for around $1.30 each, looking for a continuation of the breakout. I think these are the kind of pitches we want to be swinging at right now. What about you?
NASDAQ:ATATLong
by egatlinburg
1
FXI to $55.00 someday ?FXI , the most representative ETF of the Chinese stock market, reflects, in our view, a 15-year stagnation that contrasts with the remarkable economic growth China has experienced during the same period. Since May 2008, the FXI has unsuccessfully attempted to break above the $55.00 level, registering relative highs at the following points: May 2008: $55.00 April 2015: $52.85 January 2018: $54.00 February 2021: $54.53 At the same time, since October 2008, the ETF appears to have established a support level near $20.00, with notable lows at: October 2008: $19.35 October 2022: $20.87 January 2024: $20.86 A key level: $33.73 Currently, FXI is attempting to break above $33.73, which corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This calculation is based on the relative high of $54.53 (February 2021) and the lows recorded in October 2022 ($20.87) and January 2024 ($20.86). In October 2024, the price temporarily surpassed this level, driven by high volume, reaching the 0.50 level ($37.70). However, this movement was short-lived and lacked follow-through. The key question Will FXI manage to decisively break through the $33.73 (0.382) level in the coming days? And if so, will it reach the following key Fibonacci levels? $37.70 (0.50) $41.67 (0.618) $47.32 (0.786) $54.53 (1.00) While FXI is still far from breaking through the $55.00 barrier, a sustained move from the $20.86 lows could signal a historic trend shift, challenging the ceiling that has capped its price for the past 15 years. Our opinion is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. Before making any investment, consult with your financial advisor.
AMEX:FXI
by SHGTrading
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY November/2024 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 0.2% in November 2024 from 0.3% in the previous month, falling short of market forecasts of 0.5% and marking the lowest figure since June. This slowdown highlighted mounting deflation risks in the country despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing and the central bank's supportive monetary policy stance. Food prices rose the least in four months (1.0% vs 2.9% in October), driven by softer increases in both fresh vegetables and pork. Meantime, non-food prices remained unchanged (vs -0.3% in October), with further rises in the cost of healthcare (1.1% vs. 1.1%) and education (1.0% vs 0.8%) and more declines in prices of transport (-3.6% vs -4.8%) and housing (-0.1% vs -0.1%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% yoy, the most in 3 months, after a 0.2% gain in October. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.6%, surpassing October's 0.3% fall and the estimated 0.4% drop while pointing to the sharpest decrease since March.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/49]: Near Term Bearish Trend SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in Jan 2025 fell last week closing USD 1.85/ton lower by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 104.4/ton on 02/Dec (Mon) and closed at USD 102.55/ton on 06/Dec (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 105.70/ton on 04/Dec (Wed) and a low of USD 102.25/ton on 06/Dec (Fri). It traded in a range of USD 3.45/ton during the week. Prices traded above the pivot point for most of the week but did not manage to pass the R1 weekly pivot point of USD 106.05/ton. Price dipped below the pivot point of USD 103.20/ton on 06/Dec (Fri) Volume peaked on 04/Dec (Wed). Fundamentals in Summary Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in November from 50.3 in the prior month, above analyst expectations of a 50.6 reading and the highest reading since June. PMI data has shown a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector over the past 3 months reflecting improved demand following the stimulus announcement. Caixin China non-manufacturing PMI eased to 51.5 from 52 reflecting a slowdown in the service sector. This week, traders will be watching for the CPI release for November on 9/Dec (Mon). In October, CPI fell 0.3% MoM and eased to 0.3% YoY, its lowest reading since June reflecting continued struggles in domestic demand. The annual Central Economic Work Conference is scheduled for 11/Dec (Wed) where leaders are expected to map out economic targets and stimulus plans. Rumors that a higher-than-usual deficit target for 2025 could be set spurred a rally in Chinese stocks last week. IO China Portside inventories fell by 100k tons to 150.4 million tons in the week ending 6/Nov, extending its decline from the prior week according to data from the CISA. Elevated inventory levels could limit demand for further imports. SMM expects construction to enter its traditional off-season in December with no new projects scheduled for now. However, several major central government meetings and the year-end housing project delivery remain key events to watch and could catalyze a rally. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Jan contract trades 13.4% below its last 5-year average (USD 118.94/ton). Seasonal trends suggest a rally in the coming weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Fading Bullish Trend While the 9-day moving average has remained above the 21-day MA since marking a bullish MA crossover on 29/Nov, the price decline in the later part of last week drove price below the 9-day MA and it has started to flatten suggesting the rally may be losing steam. Price trades above the 21-day MA which could serve as a support level. Long-Term Averages Signal Reversal from 200-day MA Price tested the 200-day moving average last week but the level acted as resistance with price failing to pass it. Price remains well above the 100-day MA at 100.31. However, if the 21-day MA fails to provide support, this level could be tested next. MACD Points to Fading Rally Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.04 signals a neutral level. However, the RSI marked a crossover with its MA suggesting the price could face a period of negative returns. MACD is narrowing from its positive level and is close to marking a bearish crossover between the 12-day and 26-day MA which could signal a period of decline. Volatility Eases to 1Y Low, Fibonacci 50% Signals Resistance Volatility continued to decline and reached its lowest level in more than a year. Last week, prices retested the 50% Fibonacci level at USD 105.4/ton once more which has previously acted as resistance. With price declining, it could suggest a continuation of the bearish trend following the rejection at the Fibonacci level. Prices at Top End of Declining Channel Prices have traded in a declining parallel channel following the stimulus driven rally in late-September. Prices are currently just below the top end of the parallel channel which could represent a favorable entry level for a short position. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices reversed the early week gains last week to end the week lower. 12-day and 26-day MA are close to signaling a bearish crossover following the price rejection at the 200-day moving average last week. This could signal a near-term bearish trend. With prices at the top end of a declining channel, this could provide a favorable entry for a short position. However, given the low volatility and the strong support at USD 100/ton, the decline could be smaller than previous weeks. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO January Futures Contract at USD 103/ton with a stop at USD 105.5/ton and target at USD 100/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.2x. Each lot of SGX IO Futures Contract provides exposure to 100 tons of iron ore. For each lot, the hypothetical trade would result in gain of USD 300/lot ((103 – 100) x 100) while exposing the trade to a loss of USD 250/lot. This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,188/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,080/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEFF2025Short
by MintBulkCommods
China’s $83 Billion Gold Discovery: Fuels Bullish MomentumChina Discovers $83 Billion Gold Reserves in Hunan China has uncovered gold reserves valued at approximately $82.9 billion (600 billion yuan) in Hunan province, according to state media Xinhua. This discovery solidifies China’s position as the world’s largest gold producer, contributing roughly 10% to global output in 2023. The reserves, located in Pingjiang County, feature over 40 gold ore veins at a depth of 2,000 meters, with a core resource of 300.2 tons and grades reaching up to 138 grams per ton. Experts forecast more than 1,000 tons of reserves at greater depths. Despite its significant production capacity, China remains a net importer of gold to meet domestic demand, with consumption far exceeding output in the first three quarters of 2023. Gold prices have seen a surge this year, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, further highlighting the strategic importance of this discovery. Gold Technical Analysis Gold is currently exhibiting a strong bullish trend, supported by the stabilization of the weekly candle in bullish territory. Here’s the refined analysis: Bullish Scenario: As long as the price stays above 2644 and 2625, we anticipate a push towards 2678, 2706, and 2739. A breakout above 2739 could lead to new all-time highs at 2787 and 2838. Bearish Scenario: For a bearish outlook to materialize, the price must break 2625 on a daily candle, potentially targeting 2585 and 2558. However, this scenario remains less likely under current conditions. Outlook: The bullish scenario is favored due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and China's significant gold provisions, including the recently announced reserves of 1,100 tons. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2644 Resistance Levels: 2678, 2706, 2739, 2787, 2838 Support Levels: 2625, 2612, 2585 Trend Outlook: Uptrend This analysis highlights the robust upward momentum in gold, underpinned by global uncertainties and China's strategic reserve accumulation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
1
CHINA50 price action forming a bottom?CHN50 - 24h expiry Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Further upside is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 13300 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 13550. We look to Buy at 13175 (stop at 13025) Our profit targets will be 13575 and 13640 Resistance: 13300 / 13525 / 13600 Support: 13175 / 13100 / 13050 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDLong
by OANDA
SHOCKING! 40% tariffs on Chinese imports!According to a survey of economists by Reuters, the U.S. is considering imposing nearly 40% tariffs on Chinese imports early next year. Such measures could slow the growth of the world’s second-largest economy by 1%. Economists polled by the publication, both Democrats and Republicans, believe these changes will trigger massive disruptions in the U.S. and global economies, surpassing the impact of the trade wars during Trump’s first term. They warn this could ignite a “global trade war.” During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised significant tariffs on Chinese goods as part of his “America First” trade policy. These potential tariffs, much higher than the 7.5%-25% rates of his first term, come at a vulnerable time for China’s economy, which is grappling with a prolonged real estate slump, debt risks, and weak domestic demand. Most economists predict Trump will impose the tariffs in early 2025, with an average estimate of 38% and projections ranging from 15% to 60%. These tariffs are expected to reduce China’s economic growth in 2025 by about 0.5-1.0 percentage points. What could Trump’s policy lead to? Chinese indexes: Chinese stock indexes like #ChinaA50 and the Hang Seng Index (#HSI) are expected to face downward pressure. Chinese corporations: Key sectors such as electronics, automotive, and textiles—heavily reliant on exports to the U.S.—are likely to suffer the most. Major Chinese corporations, including #Alibaba and other leading players, could see their stock values decline. U.S. Indexes: American indexes like #SP500 and Dow Jones (#DJI30) might experience short-term volatility. Tariffs will raise costs for U.S. companies dependent on Chinese supplies, such as those in tech, automotive, and consumer goods sectors—companies like #Apple, #Tesla, and #Nike may face increased production costs. This could reduce profitability and potentially lead to stock corrections. In the long term, however, the U.S. might benefit from the trade war, as it could boost domestic production, positively impacting American manufacturing stocks. FreshForex analysts predict a growth phase to begin in late Q1 2025 . At the same time, on November 14, investors sharply increased short positions in Asian currencies following Trump’s tariff announcements.
TVC:HSIShort
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
CRYPTO OWNERSHIP LEGAL IN CHINA = $NEO BULLISHA judge in a Singaporean court has ruled cryptocurrency ownership is now legal in China. What does this mean? NEO is China's top cryptocurrency, also referred to as "Chinese Ethereum" with large stimulus recently been given to Chinese, and the fact the Crypto is now legal is China, we are about to see NEO wake up. I'm predicting an early classic cup and handle set up will come, and who knows where NEO will rise to.. $100? $250? $500? Who knows, but with China now legalizing crypto NASDAQ:NEO is about to go up to a whole different level, and I'm prepared... Are you?
Long
by REFLOWABLE
1
Alibaba - Trump Won't Beat This Stock!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) is bullish despite Trump's presidency: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Two months ago, Alibaba pumped 30% within a couple of days, perfectly following the resistance trendline breakout. So far we saw a rejection of the upper resistance level and it is quite likely that Alibaba will retest the breakout area. However, the underlying price action is still bullish. Levels to watch: $80, $115 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NYSE:BABALong
by basictradingtv
12
Navigating the Gold Market: Tips for Investors Gold, often hailed as a safe-haven asset, is increasingly finding itself at the mercy of two powerful forces: China and the U.S. dollar. As these two economic giants influence global markets, their actions have a direct impact on the price of gold. China's Growing Appetite for Gold China's insatiable demand for gold has been a significant driver of the yellow metal's price. The country's burgeoning middle class, coupled with its cultural affinity for gold, has fueled a surge in gold consumption. This demand is not limited to jewelry; it extends to investment purposes as well. China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has also been a major buyer of gold. By diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, the PBOC aims to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions. As China continues to accumulate gold, it exerts significant influence over the global gold market. The Dominance of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar, as the world's primary reserve currency, holds immense sway over the global economy. Its value relative to other currencies, often referred to as the "dollar index," has a significant impact on the price of gold. When the dollar strengthens, it typically leads to a decline in the price of gold. This is because gold is priced in U.S. dollars. As the dollar appreciates, it becomes more expensive for foreign investors to purchase gold, which can dampen demand and put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, when the dollar weakens, gold often appreciates. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for foreign buyers, stimulating demand and driving up prices. The Interplay Between China and the U.S. Dollar The interplay between China's growing demand for gold and the strength of the U.S. dollar creates a complex dynamic that can impact the price of gold. • Competing Forces: China's demand for gold can support prices, while a strong U.S. dollar can exert downward pressure. • Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China can exacerbate market volatility and impact the price of gold. • Global Economic Conditions: Global economic conditions, such as inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, can also influence the demand for gold. The Future of Gold The future of gold remains uncertain, but China and the U.S. dollar will continue to play a significant role in shaping its price. As China's economy grows and its influence on the global stage increases, its demand for gold is likely to remain strong. However, the strength of the U.S. dollar will also be a key factor. If the dollar strengthens significantly, it could put downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, a weakening dollar could support gold prices. In conclusion, gold's future is intertwined with the economic and geopolitical landscape. While it remains a valuable asset, investors should carefully consider the impact of China and the U.S. dollar on its price. Diversification and a long-term investment horizon may be prudent strategies for those seeking exposure to gold. Additional Factors Affecting Gold Prices • Inflation: Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. As inflation rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, making gold an attractive investment. • Interest Rates: Higher interest rates can reduce the appeal of gold, as investors may prefer to invest in interest-bearing assets. • Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment and market psychology can significantly impact gold prices, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. • Supply and Demand Dynamics: Global gold production and demand can influence prices. Changes in mining production or shifts in consumer demand can affect supply and demand dynamics. By understanding the interplay of these factors, investors can make more informed decisions about investing in gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by bryandowningqln
BABA | A trillion dollar criticismChinese tech titan Jack Ma had been having it rough ever since his criticism of Beijing triggered a backlash on his companies and wealth but a recent development may change the tide. On Friday, China's central bank announced a fine of 7.12 billion yuan, or $985 million, for Ant Group the fintech giant co-founded by Ma that operates the Alipay payments app signaling that its years-long regulatory crackdown is ending. But the years-long crackdown has taken a heavy toll on Ma's wealth and the market valuations of the companies he holds stakes in. Alibaba the flagship company he cofounded saw a 45%, or $620 billion, drop in market value since shares hit their peak in 2020, per Bloomberg's calculations on Sunday. Ant Group is now valued at around $78.5 billion marking a steep 75% discount to its valuation of $315 billion in a scuttled IPO before Beijing's regulatory crackdown in 2020. The collective $850 billion wipe out in Alibaba and Ant's valuations has sent Ma's net worth plunging from about $61 billion in October 2020 to $34.1 billion as of Monday On a personal level, Ma has also been lying low for more than two years.Ma angered Chinese authorities after giving a speech in October 2020 in which he criticized China's financial regulatory system and claimed Chinese banks were operating with a "pawnshop" mentality. His words prompted intense regulatory scrutiny of his businesses including Alibaba and Ant and a wider crackdown on tech firms in China. In January, he was spotted in Bangkok, where he visited a Michelin-starred street-food restaurant and watched a Muay Thai fight. He also popped up in Hong Kong in the same month. In March, Ma returned to a school he founded in his hometown of Hangzhou in eastern China. In April, he was appointed an honorary professor at the University of Hong Kong. In May, Ma took up a teaching position in Japan, one of the first public roles he has assumed since disappearing from the spotlight in 2020. Last month, Ma attended the Alibaba Global Mathematics Competition finals in Hangzhou, where Alibaba is based. Alibaba shares in Hong Kong were up 3% at 86.90 Hong Kong dollars apiece at midday, buoyed by news of the fine. The company's shares in New York closed 8.1% higher at $90.55 apiece on Friday.
NYSE:BABA
by moonypto
2
China's economic concerns drove oil prices lower Concerns regarding China's oil demand and the dollar's strength have decisively impacted oil prices, driving USOIL down to its lowest since October 29th. China's inflation data reveals significant weakness, intensifying fears of deflation. Additionally, the Trump administration's pressure on China is expected to exacerbate economic challenges for the nation, raising serious concerns about a potential downturn. After breaking the 70.00 threshold, USOIL retreated to 68.00. Both EMAs widen the gap, indicating a continuous bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks the trendline, which has extended since mid-Sep, the price may fall further to this year's low of 64.50. Conversely, if USOIL breaches the resistance at 70.00, where EMA21 coincides, the price could gain upward momentum toward 73.50.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
USDCNY | Market outlook The USD/CNY strengthened on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over a weak Chinese economy put pressure on the Yuan. Recent data from China revealed that manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, while growth in new home prices also slowed during the same period. Additionally, the property sector has yet to respond positively to Beijing's series of stimulus measures, continuing to drag down the overall economy.
Short
by DynamicCapital-FX
Hedging Price Risk in Silver in a Pivotal Week This is a big week for financial markets, a long-anticipated election in the US is likely to have widely varying impacts across major asset classes. Safe haven assets such as silver stand to benefit from the uncertainty. There is also an FOMC meeting scheduled on 7/Nov (Thu) where the Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. A lower rate environment also serves as tailwind for silver. Finally, the Chinese parliament is expected to announce details of fiscal stimulus on 8/Nov (Fri). Fiscal stimulus in China also stands to benefit silver through higher investment demand as well as industrial demand. In what should fundamentally be a strong week for silver, prices have entered the week on a bearish note following a 3.4% decline last week. While fundamental outlook for Silver remains bullish, this eventful week may drive unwanted volatility. Indeed markets are expecting large moves in silver prices with silver options IV near a 1-year high. Source: CME Group CVOL Investors can strategically deploy CME silver weekly options along with a long position in silver to capitalize on the fundamental increase while remaining protected against volatility. BULLISH FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK FOR SILVER Mint Finance covered some of silver’s bullish fundamental drivers in a previous paper . In brief, robust growth from the photovoltaic (PV) sector is driving high demand. PV installations are surging, with global solar installations up 29% year-over-year, driven by aggressive climate policies and energy transition goals. This increase has directly boosted silver consumption, essential for PV production. At the same time, silver markets have stayed in a supply deficit for the past four years. Silver miners have struggled to keep pace with the rapidly increasing industrial demand. China’s massive stimulus package—its largest since the pandemic—also plays a crucial role, freeing up liquidity to revitalize its struggling economy. This stimulus supports sectors like PV and electronics, key industries for silver usage, while bolstering consumer confidence, which translates into heightened demand for silver in electronics and jewellery. Investment demand for silver has started to pick up pace. Since July, U.S.-listed silver ETFs have seen over $942 million in inflows, particularly after the Fed’s rate cuts, which makes non-yielding assets like silver more attractive. HIGHER SILVER JEWELLERY DEMAND IN INDIA The recent festival season in India saw high demand for silver as buyers opted for it over gold. Silver sales by volume are expected to have increased 30-35% YoY while gold sales fell by 15% according to data from the Indian Bullion & Jewellers Association. Rising investor interest in silver is partly due to its relative affordability compared to gold, which is trading at an all-time high. While high gold prices are dampening demand, especially for physical gold and jewellery, silver remains more accessible, supporting increased investment. Rising investment demand, particularly for jewellery, risks pushing silver further into deficit. While jewellery demand for silver had been modest in recent years, 2022 saw a significant increase. According to the Silver Institute, jewellery demand is projected to grow by 4% in 2024 (but below 2022 levels), with actual demand potentially exceeding this due to the strong seasonal trend. Increased demand would further tighten silver supplies, likely driving prices higher over the next year. UPCOMING FOMC MEETING AND CHINA STIMULUS TO DRIVE SENTIMENT China’s parliament has started it five-day meeting on 4/Nov (Mon) and is expected to announce the details of the fiscal support on 8/Nov (Fri). Analysts suggest the fiscal plan could reach 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion), with most funds likely allocated to refinancing local government debt. A substantial fiscal stimulus plan is likely to support silver prices. Recent economic data from China has also shown a recovering industrial sector as China’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in Oct as the manufacturing sector shifted into expansion after 5 months of contraction. In case the trend continues, stronger industrial demand also stands to push silver prices higher. SILVER IN THE MIDST OF CORRECTION DURING UPTREND Silver continued its bullish momentum from September into October but has corrected sharply over the past week. During the rally earlier this year, when silver prices corrected, they were able to find support at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. With Silver presently just above the 38.2% level, it may find support here. Silver’s performance in the past two months has closely aligned with monthly pivot points. In both September and October, prices tested these pivot levels before moving higher. However, recent tests have shown smaller deviations from the pivot compared to prior months, suggesting that volatility could push prices slightly lower during this month’s test. There is strong reason to believe that the general bullish trend is likely to continue into next year. According to a poll at the LBMA precious metal conference, delegates expect silver prices to rise to USD 45/oz over 2025, reflecting a 37% increase from present levels. Precious metal analysts were highly optimistic about silver, stating that higher industrial demand combined with continued supply deficit was likely to drive strong gains. SEASONALITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE GAINS IN NOVEMBER Silver prices closed out October with a 4.6% increase but are currently nearly flat for November. Historically, November has been a mixed month for silver, with an average price increase of 1.88% since 2000, though with high standard deviation. Notably, only 42% of Novembers have shown positive gains. Despite this variability, past performance shows periods where silver either consistently declined or consistently rallied over multiple Novembers. Over the last two years, November has seen significant growth in silver prices; if this recent trend persists, silver could experience strong gains this month. SILVER’S PERFORMANCE AROUND ELECTIONS Certain safe haven and risk assets (gold, silver, BTC) stand to benefit from a Trump presidency. Historically, elections have impacted silver prices in varying ways. Following the Trump victory, silver stands to benefit. Looking at silver’s historical performance in the two weeks following elections since 1980, prices increased by an average of 0.7% when a Republican replaced a Democrat president. The Democrat-to-Republican shift has led to price rallies in two-thirds of cases. SILVER’S PERFORMANCE AROUND FOMC MEETINGS As mentioned, lower rates have a positive impact on non-yielding investment assets such as silver while also boosting industrial demand during periods with loose monetary policy. During the Fed easing cycles in 2001, 2007, and 2019, silver reacted positively to Fed rate cuts in 68% of cases (performance measured 1 week after FOMC meeting with monetary easing) with an average of 0.9% appreciation on the CME Silver front month contract. Source: CME FedWatch CME FedWatch tool is suggesting that a 25-basis point rate cut is most likely at the upcoming meeting on 7/Nov with a probability of 98%. As the outcome is largely anticipated, the impact of the meeting on silver prices may be minimal. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Silver remains bullish with strong fundamental drivers including the rapid growth in the PV industry and strong investment demand. This week, several major events are expected to drive significant volatility in the silver market. While these events are generally anticipated to boost silver demand, prices may remain unstable and could see short-term declines. Silver is currently trading near its support levels, but increased event-driven volatility this week could lead to significant price swings. In late October, for example, silver briefly surged nearly 4% above usual resistance levels during short bursts of volatility. Although trading volume remained concentrated near the support level, the risk of sudden, sharp moves remains. This could result in a long silver position being prematurely closed out. With a long position in silver futures at risk from near-term event risks, investors can deploy CME weekly options to hedge a long position from near-term volatility which increases tail risk. In the following hypothetical trade setup, investors can combine a long position in CME micro silver futures expiring in December (SILZ4) at an entry of 32 with a protective put using CME silver weekly options expiring on 8/Nov (Fri) (SO2X4) at a strike level of 31 (delta 20, premium of 0.087/oz or USD 435) offers a compelling trade setup while remaining hedged against near-term volatility. Using a delta-20 put option keeps the position fully delta-hedged for the week, as the delta of the long micro silver position aligns with the option’s delta at 20. Since each micro silver contract is one-fifth the size of a full contract, this setup effectively maintains the hedge. In case prices dip below 30.64 by Friday due to volatility from the election, FOMC meeting, and China parliamentary meeting, the put option would offset any losses from the futures leg. In the later part of the month, the outlook for silver is likely to be bullish given the fundamental factors highlighted above, in case prices rise, the position would become profitable above 32.44, offsetting the premium paid for the short-term option. The scenarios in which the position loses: 1) In case prices remain between 30.64 and 32.44 2) In case prices fall below 30.64 following the put option expiry on 8/Nov The scenarios in which the position profits: 1) In case prices fall below 30.64 before the put option expiry on 8/Nov 2) In case prices rise above 32.44 at any point It should be noted that it would be prudent to set a stop loss on the long futures position following options expiry at 31 to minimize losses in case of a decline after options expiry. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!Long
by mintdotfinance
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/44]: Set For Large Move SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in December rose last week, up by USD 0.54/ton on Friday, though prices gave up some gains by the end of the week. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 101.60/ton on 28/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 102.14/ton on 01/Nov (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 104.60/ton on 29/Oct (Tue) and a low of USD 101.30/ton on 28/Oct (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 3.30/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded just above the pivot point of USD 103.70/ton for most of the week before falling below it on Friday. Volumes were noticeably lower in the later part of the week. Highest volume was observed on 30/Oct (Wed). SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary China’s parliament has started its five-day meeting on 4/Nov (Mon) and is expected to announce the details of the fiscal support on 8/Nov (Fri). Analysts suggest the fiscal plan could reach 10 trillion yuan (USD 1.4 trillion), with most funds likely allocated to refinancing local government debt. The outcome is likely to drive significant volatility during the week. China’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in Oct as the manufacturing sector shifted into expansion after 5 months of contraction. Non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2 from 50.0. Steel industry PMI rose to 54.6 from 49 in prior month. The PMI reading was the highest since July 2018. The output index rose to 63.6 suggesting the stimulus helped boost steel production. Caxin’s China manufacturing PMI rose from 49.3 to 50.3 in October recovering from the dip in September. IO China Portside inventories rose by 770k tons to 150.1 million tons last week. The pickup volume declined further by 13k tons. Accumulating inventories pose a risk to IO demand. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Dec contract trades 3.6% higher than its last 5-year average (USD 99.31/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Bearish Trend Prices recovered following the bearish MA crossover on 22/Oct but failed to rise above the 21-day moving average. The 21-day moving average served as a resistance level throughout last week. Long-Term Averages Provide Support Prices shot above the 100-day moving average on 28/Oct (Mon) and managed to hold above this level for the rest of the week. Price re-tested this support level on 4/Nov (Mon) but seems to be holding above it for now. MACD Points to Fading Decline The MACD suggests a weakening bearish trend, with the short-term MA positioned just below the long-term MA. However, both MAs are trending downward, making a bullish crossover unlikely without a sharp rally. The long-term MA may serve as support. The RSI is near a neutral level at 51.02. Fibonacci 38.2% Tested Last Week Following the retracement of the bearish trend since the start of October, prices rallied to the 38.2% Fib level but failed to surpass it. This could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend. Though, the USD 100/ton level may provide psychological support. Price Trading Just Below Volume Point of Control Sellers continued to dominate trading despite an uptick in buyers early last week. Price faced resistance at the volume point of control for October (USD 103.55/ton). There is another area of volume concentration at (USD 101.15/ton) which could provide near-term support. Bollinger Bands Narrowing with Low Volatility Bollinger Bands for IO futures are narrowing and their width is near the lowest contraction since August, increasing the likelihood of a sharp breakout. Price is currently at the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands. Historical Volatility also continued to decline last week and reached its lowest level since August. Iron Ore Options Favor Calls SGX IO options expiring in December have an OI put/call ratio of 0.86 as of 1/Nov which favors calls. Over the past week, trading in this contract was heavily skewed towards call with a volume put/call ratio of 0.38. Additionally, last week, near-term options expiring in November saw a large buildup of call options around the USD 105 strike suggesting bullish sentiment in the near-term. The delta-25 options skew for December options also shows a sharp increase in call IV alongside a narrowing skew suggesting high demand for calls. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore volatility has reached its lowest level since August. The rally last week failed to continue past the short-term moving average and the volume profile point of control and IO gave up substantial gains in the later part of the week despite the encouraging data from PMI releases. The results of the ongoing parliamentary meeting are expected on 9/Nov (Fri) and are likely to drive substantial moves in prices. Options activity over the last week showed a high concentration of activity for call options, especially at the strike level of USD 105/ton. The IV for IO options has also been rising unlike the historical volatility. A sharp upside move is likely, though, if the fiscal stimulus disappoints, prices may also decline sharply. Expressing the bullish view through a long futures exposes the position to higher risk if stimulus disappoints. Investors can instead express the bullish view using SGX IO options. A bullish call spread benefits from an increase in prices and offers a fixed upside and fixed downside along with a smaller premium cost than a long call position. Bullish call spread consists of long call at a lower strike and short call at a higher strike. A hypothetical trade setup consisting of USD 105/ton for the long call leg and USD 109/ton for the short call leg on the options contract expiring on 31/Dec offers a reward to risk ratio of 3x. The USD 109/ton level coincides with the peak during the last rally in mid-October and is close to the 200-day moving average, prices could face resistance above this level. This position offers a max profit of USD 299/lot and a max loss of USD 101/lot and breaks even when prices rise above USD 106.1/ton. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Long
by MintBulkCommods