China
NIO, TEST DUMMIES NEEDED, BUY THE DIP OR LET CRASH?I like the Chinese stocks
Nio is one of them
There is some downside showing still as far as I can tell
It is leading to an old support trend, however, I don't know if that is relevant anymore.
I like the potential of buy the dip under $5.4
Subject to change quickly.
but right now, bullish on the next decent dip.
Drawn in line is what I'm currently seeing as an ideal scenario, do not follow line, instead follow trends and price targets. Line is often inaccurate, but helps me reanalyze my indicators.
The lowest number I could see was around 2.8 or 2.9. unlikely, but you never know, completely possible.
After 14.9, it can go higher, but a new chart will be needed, and will likely be needed before that point arrives.
Anta Sports: Final Descent 🛬Anta Sports recently continued to rise after an impulsive downward spike narrowly missed the magenta Target Zone between HK$58.95 and HK$33.60. Thus, it is quite possible that this downward spike has already completed the low of the green wave (2) and that the stock is now marching higher. However, we are not convinced that this is the case, so we believe that the stock will soon pull back, drop below the support level of HK$67.85, and then run into our magenta Target Zone. Once this has been explored, we expect the wave (1) in magenta to lead to strong rallies above the resistance at HK$125.30.
Shanghai Comp SHCOMP ~ Bearish H&S Update (Feb 2024)SSE:000001 chart mapping/analysis.
Been a while since I've published any charts on TradingView - process is a pain in the a$$ tbh & procrastination crept in while lacking TA-edge on markets + other commitments..
That said, noticed Shanghai Comp chart still notching views given current environment so thought I'd give an update.
Initial TA thesis hasn't changed - bearish H&S identified in Dec 2023 completed & still in play, despite PBOC desperately throwing everything to keep their market afloat (don't fight the trend).
Chart notes:
Cleaned up clutter from previous chart
Added descending parallel channel for potential bounce play off lower trend-line
Labelled 50/200 EMA death cross to signify bear market trend (weekly chart)
Break below ~2666 = further capitulation
Break above ~2924 (R1) = bullish trend reversal
Stay tuned whether I get back on TradingView horse & update older charts or publish new ones, cheers.
China CSI 1000 Index - Opportunity or Collapse?The long view on the China CSI 1000 Index
▫️ The lows of 2018 at $4,065 have not been taken out
▫️ Price is currently at $4,293 above this level
🚨The RSI has reached its most oversold level ever reaching down to a sub 17 level.
Is this an opportunity or a collapse?
BABA, BIG POTENTIAL FOR EARNINGS BREAKOUT (BULLISH)Like the title says, Bullish.
There is so much going on behind the scenes based on the world events today.
BUT, in the end, BABA is going to be a big supplier of goods across the Asia continent, and there are a LOT of people to sell to.
Put/Call chart is included, I've highlighted the outliers.
Does this mean I'm suggesting to yolo puts and calls? Probably not, but to be totally honest, if you do, I wish luck and hope you make bank. However, I'd say it's risky for short term options.
Long term options on the other hand, if you can buy the spread dip, I like the prices on calls.
I personally think BABA will be a rise and crash stock.
There are numbers showing well in the range of 600 and 700.
Similar to TSLA (previous run), META (current run). Similar, not exact, but similar.
Would I be surprised if the stock was $800 by Sept, NOPE.
Would I expect the stock to be at $800 by Sept, NOPE.
Possible and probable are two different things.
I'm currently eying the potential to hold $63, and maybe even already has and will hold $69, but it's good to be prepared on the low side in case of drops.
RSI is in alignment for one hell of a move to the upside should it want to use earnings as an excuse to rocket.
Basically, in all, my opinion on BABA based on the chart, I'm a fan currently.
In other words, there is a better than average chance for profit and limited losses should you decide to buy at these levels.
If you invest in amazon, you'd probably love BABA, especially if you can sell one at a high, and buy the other at a low, and then keep repeating the process until you own them both.
Good luck!
Tencent: Turn around! 🔄Tencent remains in our magenta-colored (long) Target Zone, which extends from HK$302.60 on the upper edge to HK$237.40 on the lower edge. It is still our primary assumption that the stock will establish another marginally lower low within this price range. Once the wave (2) in magenta has been completed, we expect the price to rise above the resistance at HK$416.60. At this point, however, it should be noted once again that the (minimum) requirements for the wave (2) correction, which the stock has been dealing with for almost a year now, were met with the approach of the Zone - as a result, a direct breakout to the upside would be quite conceivable from a technical point of view. Until then, the Target Zone continues to offer the opportunity to position oneself on the long side.
AUD/CAD Analysis: Current Outlook plus fundamental Here's a simplified analysis for AUD/CAD:
Long-term view from the weekly chart indicates a bearish trend.
Mid-term perspective on the daily chart shows a broken bullish channel, replaced by a bearish one.
Considering fundamental factors:
Escalating tensions in the Middle East may increase the chance of the Beijing-Taipei conflict, potentially impacting AUD negatively.
Long-term, increased oil prices due to these middle-east tensions may favor CAD.
Given these factors, AUD/CAD is more likely to maintain a bearish trend over the long term.
Stay informed for further developments.
Best regards,
$BABA, Could it be main investment opportunity of 2024 ? With Alibaba trading at a depressed valuation, is this a compelling buying opportunity? While the current price presents an attractive entry point, it's essential to conduct a thorough analysis before making any investment decisions. I'll be employing the EW 2.0 model to assess the company's historical price movement and identify potential buying signals.
Meituan: Turning Point ⤴️Meituan's price is still trading at the lower end of the magenta Target Zone between HK$96.90 and HK$64. Our primary assumption remains that the stock is already working on the wave 1 rises in turquoise - and that it should soon leave the resistance at HK$103.50 well behind it. However, we must continue to weight the option with a 35% probability that the stock will still undercut our Target Zone in order to complete the correction only below the low of wave alt. (2) in green.
Are we close to peak China pessimism?President Xi Jinping’s New Year address put paid to hopes of much larger stimulus.
In his address, President Xi pointed to the consolidation and enhancement of the
economic recovery and no signs of a boost from policy coming. Furthermore,
China’s economic growth for 2023 came out at 5.2%, above the central
government’s 5% forecast, which it boasted it was able to achieve without relying
on large stimulus.
China’s real GDP growth to slow further in 2024. Investors' pessimism towards China’s economy could be nearing a peak given recent efforts by policymakers to stabilize sentiment.
Policymakers acting to stabilize sentiment: China’s policymakers are
feeling the need to stabilize investor sentiment and this week have taken two
steps in this direction. First, following a recent State Council meeting, Premier
Li Qiang suggested help is on the way for China’s beleaguered stock market.
Newswire reports suggest this help could include CNY 2.3trn of funds (mainly
from SOEs) to buy Chinese equities to prop up the market. Such a measure
could help put a bottom on investors’ China pessimism. However, such purchases would not address their underlying concerns including a weak residential property market, local government debts, the lack of policy easing, and the risk of another regulatory clampdown.
Second, the PBoC surprised with an RRR cut as well as a cut to its re-lending
and discount rates. While I was expecting cuts to both, the
size and timing were surprising given the recent disappointment of the PBoC
keeping its MLF on hold. The PBoC also sounded dovish suggesting further
room to ease policy given the gap between actual and target prices and the
Fed’s pivot towards easing.
Check out my other ideas:
DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS (Global Conflict Summary EDITION)Per the council of foreign relations, these are the following current global conflicts. I've included a brief description of each conflict. It's important to understand these if you're planning or already are investing in defense stocks.
Per TA, I've labeled bearish price targets, bullish price targets, relevant trends. It looks overvalued from analysis on ITA, but there is upside. I'd say that short term probably favors bulls (talking maybe weeks if not less), mid term probably favors the bears (multiple months), long term will likely favor bulls, but it will depend on the movement we see over FEB and March.
Global Conflict Summary
Americas
Criminal Violence in Mexico
The criminal violence in Mexico involves various organizations such as Sinaloa, Los Zetas, Tijuana/AFO, Juárez/CFO, Beltrán Leyva, Gulf, La Familia Michoacana, the Knights Templar, and Cartel Jalisco Nuevo Generación (CJNG). The violence is attributed to the increase in crime rates and the limited interventions by the state and municipal police.
Instability in Haiti
The instability in Haiti involves the government, opposition parties, and the international community. The crisis revolves around the dispute over the presidential term and the government’s inability to control skyrocketing prices of commodities.
Instability in Venezuela
Venezuela is facing an unprecedented social and humanitarian collapse due to poor economic policies, political conflict, and the international community’s unsuccessful attempts to bring about positive change. The conflict involves the government under President Nicolás Maduro and opposition groups.
Asia
Instability in Afghanistan
Since the Taliban reclaimed control of Afghanistan in 2021, the country has further plunged into political and economic instability. The conflict involves the Afghan government, the Taliban, and various local and international actors.
Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea
China’s sweeping claims of sovereignty over the sea have antagonized competing countries. The key parties involved in this territorial dispute are China, the Philippines, and the US.
North Korea Crisis
North Korea could resort to nuclear weapons in a crisis as it is making significant progress toward implementing a more robust nuclear strategy. The crisis involves North Korea, South Korea, the United States, Japan, and other international actors.
Instability in Pakistan
Pakistan continues to face multiple sources of internal and external conflict. Extremism and intolerance of diversity and dissent have grown, threatening the country’s prospects for social cohesion and stability. The conflict involves the Pakistani government, opposition groups like the Pakistan Muslim League and the Pakistan Peoples Party, and militant groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Conflict Between India and Pakistan
Since 1947, India and Pakistan have been involved in a number of wars, conflicts, and military standoffs, with the Kashmir conflict serving as the catalyst for every war between the two states. The conflict primarily involves India and Pakistan, with the disputed region of Kashmir being a major point of contention.
Confrontation Over Taiwan
Tensions are rising over Taiwan as China’s power and assertiveness grows, competition between the U.S. and China spreads, and the Taiwanese people develop a distinct identity increasingly disassociated from the mainland. The key parties involved in this conflict are China, Taiwan, and the US.
Civil War in Myanmar
The civil war in Myanmar escalated significantly in response to the 2021 military coup d’état and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests. The conflict involves the National Unity Government, People’s Defence Force, Chinland Defence Force, Chin National Defence Force, Karenni Nationalities Defence Force, and other ethnic armed organizations against the State Administration Council and Tatmadaw.
Europe and Eurasia
War in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine involves Ukraine and Russia. The conflict is over the sovereignty of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict involves Armenia and Azerbaijan. The dispute is over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but is governed by ethnic Armenians.
Middle East and North Africa
Conflict in Syria
The conflict in Syria involves the Syrian government, opposition groups, and various international actors. The civil war began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring protests and has since escalated into a multi-sided conflict involving numerous factions and foreign powers.
Instability in Iraq
The instability in Iraq involves the Iraqi government, various ethnic and religious groups, and international actors. The conflict stems from sectarian tensions, political instability, and the presence of ISIS.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict involves Israel, Palestine, and various international actors. The conflict is over the sovereignty of the Palestinian territories and the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Conflict in the Central African Republic
The conflict in the Central African Republic involves the government, various rebel groups, and international actors. The conflict stems from political instability, ethnic tensions, and control over the country’s rich natural resources.
Conflict in Ethiopia
The conflict in Ethiopia involves the Ethiopian government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and various ethnic and regional groups. The conflict stems from political tensions, ethnic disputes, and disagreements over the country’s system of ethnic federalism.
Please note that this is a brief summary and does not cover all aspects of the conflicts. For more detailed information, please conduct further research.
Morgan Stanley rated A the Ping An Insurance for secong year
Revenue: $156.2 billion
Net Income: $14.7 billion
Market Cap: $114.8 billion
1-Year Trailing Total Return: ~7.5%
Exchange: OTC Markets
According to Investopedia, it is the 3rd biggest Chinese company and in the top 5 insurance companies in the world
Ping An Insurance provides insurance, financial services, and banking. It is one of the top 50 companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Founded in 1988, it was China's first joint-stock insurance company.
Its subsidiaries include Ping An Life, Ping An Property & Casualty, Ping An Annuity, and Ping An Health.
Hong Kong and Shanghai, Nov. 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, a powerhouse in the insurance sector, proudly declares its stellar achievement in the latest Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Ratings by Morgan Stanley Capital Investment (MSCI). Securing an A rating for the second consecutive year, Ping An reaffirms its commitment to sustainable practices. Notably, the Group maintains its top-tier position in the multi-line insurance & brokerage industry in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. This accolade underscores Ping An's unwavering dedication to excellence and responsible corporate citizenship. Investors take note of Ping An's remarkable ESG track record as it continues to lead the way in the industry.
Ping An takes proactive steps in addressing climate change challenges, utilizing its integrated finance capabilities to advance green finance initiatives and support China's ambitious targets of achieving "carbon peak and neutrality in 2030 and 2060 respectively." In responsible investment, Ping An implements the active ownership principle, integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors into research, analysis, and investment decisions. The company actively oversees and participates in ESG management for portfolio companies, ensuring their healthy development. By June 2023, Ping An's green investments in insurance assets reached an impressive RMB140.929 billion.
The current entry-level is looking promising being close to the all-time lows with much higher upside potential than the downward one.
QQQ TRENDS AND PRICE TARGETS, HOW MANY Q's SHOULD ONE HAVE?Technicals
RSI is overextending, however, a little cool down would reset the indicators and trigger buy signals across the board.
Bears should be looking for an entry, but not entering yet. Plan out a trade.
Bulls should be locking in profits and looking to buy the dip.
There are two super short term trends that are taking the price up. They are both rejection trends, which are trending in the bullish direction, in other words, price is going up following those trends.
There is a huge rejection trend labeled.
There is a mega support trend labeled.
There is a strong support trend labeled, which should likely trigger a buy signal should it fall to that support or possibly dip under for a brief period of time.
Above 480 starts to increase risk.
it can go higher to 500, and then possibly even to 600.
500 is way more likely than 600 on this run.
short term, again, could use a cool down to like 393.
I would suggest to wait for this cool down to enter expecting bullish movement. With price falling to multiple strong support lines, it is a favorable trade.
Price can keep going up. Don't expect it to go down. But understand, if it does, you'll be prepared for that movement, and have a trade with a high potential of profit.
If you miss out on a run because you were caution, simply wait for a rejection point and jump in short. Ride the wave down, then enter your long position. In other words, don't chase the movement, let the movement come to you, let it move past you, then ride the movement in your desired direction.
Linking my other QQQ posts and SPY posts
I usually don't TA these because I tend to trade the 3x leveraged (FNGU FNGD is one of my favorites), and I tend to get predictions wrong on these two. Will link some old ones talking about spy to 480 in the election year. MY MISTAKE was I thought the election year was 2023, so it was way off.
Dr. Copper Sets Sights on Higher LevelsDr. Copper has recently demonstrated signs of strength, largely attributed to China's stimulus measures. This price surge is occurring within a pattern of consistently higher lows since the lows of 2023. It's important to highlight that this upward momentum previously broke through the downtrend line stemming from the highs of 2023.
Following its breakthrough of the $3.82 resistance level yesterday, attention is now focused on the potential for a sustained positive price trend. If the industrial metal maintains a price above $3.82 per pound, it could set its sights on the psychologically significant level of $4 and the resistance level established in August. These levels appear to be potential objectives worth considering in the near future.
Tesla Faces Headwinds: EV Fleet Sale and Intense Price WarTesla experienced a notable setback, with its stock falling as much as 4.2% during Friday's trading session. This decline marks the 11th drop in 12 sessions. The dip follows Hertz Global Holdings Inc.'s announcement of plans to sell off a third of its U.S. electric-vehicle fleet, contributing to the downward pressure on Tesla's shares.
Adding to the challenges, Tesla has been navigating a complex landscape in China. Since late 2022, the company has engaged in a series of price cuts, triggering responses from other manufacturers and putting pressure on profit margins across the industry. Domestic players like Xpeng Inc. and BYD Co., as well as global giants like Volkswagen AG, have joined the price-cutting competition to defend their market share
Technically we have a good opportunity to position, but as I always advise in my posts don't take full size position before the move is already happening. 0.5 Risk now with another addition of 0.5 to the full risk which as a Risk Management should not be more than 1-2% of the total portfolio.
BOOST THE IDEA AND COMMENT YOUR OPINION
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HSI: Already finished? 👀The HSI has risen sharply since Monday. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the index is still working on a magenta-colored downward structure and is therefore not yet finished with its correction. Only after this five-part wave, and thus the turquoise-colored wave 3, has come to an end should things pick up a good bit - even if there is still further downside on a Long-term level. However, there is also a 33% probable alternative, which envisages a sustained rise and considers the past low to be the low of the green wave alt.(2). This scenario comes into effect if the resistance at 18 846 points is exceeded.
DXY v's Brazil Russia India China B.R.I.C. CurrenciesNote how the two large pattern #HVF's kept you dollar long as the main directional trade from 2011 to 2022
But things may be turning around and this trade may, potentially be reversing.
Often when commentators have given up on the idea
of a multi polar world, end of dollar dominance , as price keep going the opposite direction.
Is when the trade actually starts to kick into gear.
These are major resource nations , with 40% of global pop.
30% of the land
and well over a 1/4 of global GDP
Would make sense to see this basket of currencies outperform our beloved Greenback.
Alibaba - Buy The DipHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Alibaba.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting in 2016 Alibaba created a pretty obvious higher timeframe bullish reversal which was followed by a crazy bullrun on Alibaba stock. In 2021 Alibaba broke below a major bullish trendline and dropped more than -70%. If we see another bullish reversal at the $65 level and a break above the trendline mentioned in the analysis, I am looking for bullish trading setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
China’s Auto Exports Surge 58% to Record High in 2023 The development follows another milestone for Chinese auto exports after they hit more than 3 million vehicles in 2022 and over 2 million in 2021, the report said.
The latest record was driven by a surge in exports of new energy vehicles, which climbed 77.6% in 2023 to more than 1.2 million units, according to the report.
Overall auto sales in China climbed 12% year over year to 30.1 million units, while output rose 11.6% to 30.2 million units, Xinhua added.
Nio:
- Trading at 35% below our estimate of its fair value
- Revenue is forecast to grow 22.58% per year