Get started

China

AUD trader – a big CPI print puts RBA hikes back on the table Positioning Clients are skewed long, with 63% of open interest is held looking for upside in AUDUSD. In the broad market, the big flow desks report that hedge funds (leveraged players) are small net short of AUDs, while ‘real money’ (pension funds, insurance, asset managers) have a large net short AUD exposure. Factors that could move the AUD? • The RBA minutes have put the market on notice that RBA rate hikes could make a comeback – they detailed that slower progress to get to the inflation to target (2-3%) would not be viewed favourably, and they have a lower tolerance for inflation. Housing is a key focal point, with Australian city house prices gaining for 7 straight months – the RBA noted that they’re seeing higher unit labour cost growth, coming in a time of declining productivity, which they see as inflationary. • Today’s speech by RBA gov Bullock didn’t see her push back on the markets view that the minutes were considered hawkish, and the Governor didn’t guide interest rate expectations lower – this offers rates traders real confidence in their pricing. • What is priced? Aus 30-day interest rate futures now price a 34% chance of a hike at the 7 November RBA meeting and a 54% chance of a hike at the December meeting – the rates door is more than ajar. • Next Wednesday’s Australia Q3 CPI (11:30 AEDT) is, therefore, a big-ticket event risk for AUD traders and could heavily influence rate pricing and therefore the AUD. It’s too early to see the consensus expectations for the trimmed mean CPI forecast, but headline CPI is expected to fall to around 5.2% YoY (from 6%) – recall, the RBA have forecast inflation at 4.25% by year-end, so an above consensus print could suggest the bank revise their forecasts higher. Anything above 5.4% should make the 7 Nov RBA meeting a live and pricing closer to 50%. • An above consensus Q3 CPI read, and we would also see the market price a hike in the Dec meeting as a near-done deal – the AUD should like that. • AUD bulls will want to see a higher Chinese equity market with the 10-day rolling correlation between the CSI300 index and AUDUSD at reasonable 0.54. While we see the PBoC pumping liquidity into the market, China/HK property stocks can't find a friend, and we eye a thoroughly expected default today from Country Garden, as they scramble to make a $15m coupon payment. AUD bulls need to see a far better tape in the China equity market to support vs the USD – the AUD crosses seem the better tactical play. • While ongoing concerns around China’s property sector keeps international money managers from moving overweight the region, China’s economy has likely troughed and is improving – we saw that in today’s Q3 GDP print and high frequency data dump. • Calls that the govt is prepared to blow out the deficit above 3% of GDP, by issuing $130b of new debt to fund infrastructure projects is a bullish consideration. However, the recent raft of mini-stimulus measures should start to be seen in the data flow. China’s economy should improve from here, although the property sector needs to be carefully monitored. • While we watch for direction from China equity, we see Australia’s relative terms of trade (ToT) on the rise – while the sensitivity we see between the AUD and its ToT comes and goes, the fact we see it rising should support the AUD. • With geopolitical issues very much front and centre, trading the AUD against other risk-associated crosses makes sense – the US economy still looks incredibly resilient vs G10 countries and a higher AUDUSD would require the VIX index to pull back below 14% and the S&P500 to climb higher (as well as China equity). What’s the play? The best AUD bullish expression of late has been against the NZD, given both are China proxies and we can see on the daily that the market shares this view – momentum studies show higher levels into 1.0850/1.0900 before we see better supply are favoured. AUDJPY approaches the recent highs of 96.00 and I favour it to get there, but there are Japanese intervention risks with short JPY positions at this juncture. The JPY also looks attractive as a geopolitical hedge – that said, if the market feels the situation in the Middle East will be contained and FX vol falls further, then AUDJPY could benefit from carry and diverging central bank policies. GBPAUD shorts have been my favoured play, and technically price is favoured lower - we do have UK CPI due out at 5 pm today and there are risks with being short GBP. Unless it’s a significant upside surprise (consensus 6.6% headline, 6% yoy core), then the BoE are on hold for an extended period.
Long
by Pepperstone
Strong fundamental and technical China playI do like how some of the strongest plays in China are setting up for the perspective upside in Q4 and beyond. Have a look at $NASDAQ:FUTU. High double and triple digits growths of earnings and sales four quarters in a row; strong and consistent ROE numbers; high eps growth estimates. Management owns 5% of the company. In conjunction with China government plans to stimulate the economy, most of the ingredients are there to support potential price advance of FUTU into Q4. From the technical stand point, I may suggest several perspective: 1. My wave-analysis shows that a) the mid/long-term structure allows for substantial upside and b) price found important short-term support in 53 area and is now building the base before continuing advance towards next important resistance zones: 80-99. 2. Waves and fibonacci aside, notice how well the price creates a volatility contraction pattern on a weekly time-scale, with an evident accumulation signs and good weekly closes. That leads me to consider that sellers with selling volume are subsiding and buyers are ready to step in leading the price higher. Overall there is quite substantial overhead supply from devastating 90% decline since 2021, strong fundamental and at least short to mid term technical stance make NASDAQ:FUTU a valid candidate for the buy list. Trading thesis: if price manages to break-out above 67.5 with supportive volume confirmation, that shall be a buy signal. With tight 3-5-7% staggered stop loss. For cowboy type of traders, price moving above 64.10 could be a place to start opening the position with an intention of adding after 67.5 breach. The short-term analysis is valid until price holds above Oct's low of 52.
NASDAQ:FUTULong
by artemfedorov
The Semiconductor Industry and Texas Instruments Long TXN Company Overview: Texas Instruments (TXN) is a prominent and long-established semiconductor company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Founded in 1930, TXN has evolved into a global leader in the semiconductor industry, with a diverse portfolio of analog and embedded processing products. Here are some key aspects of the company: Product Range: TXN specializes in analog and embedded processing semiconductors. Analog chips are designed to process real-world signals such as sound, light, temperature, and motion. They are used in a wide range of applications, from industrial and automotive systems to consumer electronics. As tensions between Taiwan and China continue to rise, it is a good idea to consider the semiconductor business as an industry to invest in. The largest chip manufacturer in Taiwan by far is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). Although TSMC focuses on digital semiconductors, the hype alone could lead many investors to add TXN to their portfolio simply because they don't understand the difference. TXN is also in a unique position, where in the event of a China-Taiwan conflict, it could certainly garner increased government funding. We are currently watching three main price points. 1. $156.00 2. $167.00 3. $186.00 We are currently hitting the direct top of our Ichimoku cloud. If we bounce here i anticipate All targets being hit within 2 months. Especially if we see geopolitical events continue in their current manner.
NASDAQ:TXNLong
by Helios_Capital_Investment
1
Hang Seng Index: High-flyer 🌟The Hang Seng Index is currently in a strong rise. As the yellow trading range between 17 424 and 15 571 points has already been approached, it is quite possible that the low of the magenta wave alt.(2) has already been set. We give this scenario a 40% probability and it would become our primary scenario if the resistance at 18 898 points is broken. Until then, however, we must continue to expect that there will be another fall deeper into the trading range before the turnaround takes place.
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Do Li's electric vehicles are charged enough for Q4? One of my favourite ideas in electrical vehicle space - China's Li. Mid-term price structure still looks bullish to my eyes, despite Sep's sell-off bellow 50D MA. While the price is still under it (what is a "no-go" rule for any substantial long trades for me), I do like how price managed to find foothold slightly crossing below the ideal support zone. In the ideal world, I would argue that price is trying to form the bottom of what will later form into the lower are of a cup. That means that the price needs to hold above 33 area and start building the right side and later the handle of the reliable cup-and-handle pattern. In the short-term, I want the price to reclaim 21ema and fill the gap-down, happened late September. If the price follows through, we will see the key moving averages ordering into the right bullish sequence: 8ema/21ema/50ma what will probably provide us with the MA's crossover and at least several days tight cheat area with low risk-entry point. The fundamental side of Li's story makes almost the perfect case for the next up-cycle's true market leader: top-level triple digits earnings and sales growth last quarter, consistent double digits 3 quarters sales growth; super high annual earnings estimates. I would place a bet, that if price manages to move above 50D MA, institutional sponsorship will be increasing providing the fuel for the suggested bullish scenario.
NASDAQ:LILong
by artemfedorov
The Rig "blue horseshoe loves the next 100 baggers to the moon"it's ike buying a pair of jeans .. and not using it probably the next big thing when oil hits $100 or ARAMCO debuts soon it's all a cycle for the benefit of the few greedy players -- notice the VOLUME underneath relative to previous years.. those whales splashing discretely while price at sub $2 is at rest -- thieves like to accumulate when no one is minding "we follow the money that follows the money folks...." -- all the best and best of years ahead...
NYSE:RIG
by senyor
17
China's Long-Term Gold BuyingChina's persistent and substantial gold buying activities have been steadily driving up the price of this precious metal, presenting an exciting opportunity for traders like yourself to consider going long on gold. Over the past few years, China has been actively diversifying its foreign reserves by increasing its gold holdings. This strategic move is aimed at reducing their reliance on the US dollar and mitigating potential risks associated with global economic uncertainties. China's consistent and significant purchases have already made it the world's largest gold consumer, surpassing India. The long-term implications of China's gold buying spree cannot be overlooked. As the demand for gold continues to rise, driven by China's insatiable appetite, the price of this precious metal is likely to experience sustained upward pressure. This trend could create a favorable environment for traders who choose to go long on gold. Considering the predictable nature of China's gold buying activities and their commitment to diversify their reserves, now might be an opportune time to consider adding gold to your portfolio. By taking advantage of this trend, you could potentially benefit from the price appreciation of gold in the long term. I encourage you to carefully evaluate this opportunity and assess how it aligns with your trading strategy. Conduct thorough research, analyze market trends, and consider consulting with your financial advisor to make an informed decision. To assist you in capitalizing on this potential opportunity, I recommend keeping a close eye on China's gold buying announcements and monitoring any related market developments. Stay informed about global economic indicators and geopolitical events, as they can significantly influence the price of gold. Remember, trading always involves risks, and it is essential to exercise caution and implement appropriate risk management strategies. However, with careful analysis and a well-informed approach, going long on gold in light of China's long-term buying activities could prove to be a rewarding investment. Should you require any further information or assistance, please do not hesitate to comment.
OANDA:XAUEURLong
by bryandowningqln
LIQUIDITY MATTERS! Global liquidity vs #BitcoinLook at how the bullish green arrows and bearish red arrows show how global liquidity correlates HEAVILY with the direction of Bitcoin. T You don't have to be a genius to see how beautiful this correlation is. And how sensitive #BTC is to excess capital in the system. As a risk on asset When ppl have easy money to gamble with , a portion of that ends up in the #Crypto markets. Currently you can see how aggressive the withdrawal of liquidity is across the globe In the USA, EU, China & Japan.
FRED:WALCL
by BallaJi
EURAUD: When China's news make Aussie and other Asians strong! My dear friends, Thursday, 14 September, 2023 and ECB interest rate decision is on the way. We'll wait for confirmations. But before ECB meeting, series of several bad economical news over China's financial stability were published. Market reacted to them rationally. Suddenly the red dragon start to regain it's reputation. Good news for China means stronger Aussie, Kiwi and Yen! A personal belief: Markets are not optimist to China's long-term relations with the free world and it makes them avoid longer term investing on Asian currencies. We could expect a more bearish weeks for them in next months, however, we don't hold that much so a mid-term bearish correction could be a opportunity for us! Regarding the weekly chart, some more corrective weekly candles are expected. snapshot Considering the daily timeframe, market structure has changed so there could be a stop hunt around 1.68950 snapshot The horizontal level could be a high probable and good R-to-R entry point. Levels are based on: Order-blocks, Pivot Points, Support and resistance and Reversal points.
Short
by AliSignals
The comeback of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis in near futureAsia will be shaken to the core once again, but that's good news for China, first, for CCP it is an opportunity to step in and replace dollar with yuan, making countries in Asian region to submit to the Yuan power, de-dollarization of Asia. The first crisis was triggered by the handover of HongKong to China, this time it will be takeover of Taiwan by China. Fractals on USDTHB charts strongly suggests everything that is said above.
Long
by init4datech
5
Industrial metals continue to face headwinds as Chinese data disIndustrial metals were the worst performing commodity sector last month and were down 2.7%1. Over the last six months, the sector is down 15.2% and has created the biggest drag on the overall performance of commodities. China's real estate sector, once the engine of its economy, is now teetering on the edge of crisis because of excessive borrowing, overbuilding, and a housing slowdown. The government's crackdown on risky practices and sudden intervention in 2020 to prevent a housing bubble have led to over 50 Chinese developers defaulting or failing to make debt payments in the last three years. The consequences include reduced consumer spending due to falling housing prices, disappearing jobs tied to housing, and decreased business confidence. While policymakers have taken modest steps to address the situation, the real estate turmoil has spread to financial institutions and the broader economy, prompting concerns of a larger crisis. A build-up in industrial metal inventories over the last 3 months is consistent with market expectations of ample supply of the metals for the rest of the year, given relatively modest demand. Zinc inventory is up 96% while lead inventory is up 85% compared to 3 months ago. This is clearly weighing on sentiment towards industrial metals. Copper (COMEX) was down 2.8%1, and aluminium down 2.8%1. The only bright spot in the basket was lead, which was up 3.7% last month. Speculative positioning in COMEX copper has been oscillating between positive and negative territories in recent months and entered negative territory again last month after briefly becoming positive2. COMEX copper inventory is up around 46% compared to 3 months ago. And although copper held in COMEX is one of the smaller stores of the metal, when combining London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX, copper inventory is still 27% above where it was 3 months ago. Nickel was down 5.7% last month1. Although nickel is widely known for its use in electric vehicle batteries, a growing market, it still draws around two-thirds of its overall demand from the production of stainless steel. China's steel market has been facing pressure in August due to continued high steel production despite sluggish end-user demand. Blast furnace utilization rates have risen, but some local mills in key steelmaking provinces like Hebei and Jiangsu have not received official communication about output reductions. Uncertainty surrounds the extent of China's steel output cuts for the rest of the year, with expectations of smaller scale cuts targeting environmentally sensitive regions. Rising steel inventories are attributed to robust production and weak demand. Despite potential production cuts, market sentiment remains cautious due to these challenges, and steel prices have declined. This, in turn, is weighing on nickel. Source: 1 Bloomberg as of 21 July 2023 to 21 August 2023 2 Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as of 15 August 2023 3 change in inventory over the past 3 months by United States Department of Agriculture This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
COMEX:HG1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
China downturn bet and some catalystsFundamentals AUD The slowdown of the Chinese economy drags down Australia which heavily exports to China, thus bearish sentiments in the AUD. Today economic data on China is mixed: even though there were some improvements in Manufacturing PMI, the markets couldn't hold gains in the next few hours. Such minor improvements are just a drop in the sea of current broader structural deficiencies. In addition, yesterday Australia posted weak data on Building Approvals and Construction Work Done, which are quite a catalyst for AUD weakness. USD: "Higher rates for longer" narrative. Although the employment data is expected to come out at a decline. So In case the expectations are missed, positions should be managed in a risk-averse manner. Technical & other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: Aug lows Risk: 0.52%
Short
by Cherry94
Hyperinflation China (CNY) + Japan (JPY) First to Go! Chinese real-estate has collapsed China refuses to update new unemployment metrics (like they've ever told the truth) China BOC keeps printing to backstop this (parabolic m3/m2) China forcing peoples money trapped in this death spiral Japan Real estate is also dead Japan stocks / Gasoline is going parabolic due to the start of hyperinflation not a booming economy Japan's BOJ also can't stop printing! what could go wrong? I've made post about this months ago with warning signs about Japan's stock market going parabolic without anything going on. This is text book Weimar Germany 1923, why the Chinese stocks going down though? simple the capital is trying everything to exit into US markets. The CCP has printed so much money and you know what people did with it? they sold it for US Dollars and used it overseas because nobody is buying the bs that China is a booming / powerful economy its completely collapsing you love to see it!. Japan? their currency is done. Both these countries have debt to GDP past the point of no return. Both these countries have PPI / CPI going parabolic past the point of no return. People have started to panic in China and it will follow in Japan followed by a complete meltdown, but the trick here is there's a chance this will not take out the US markets ironically. All of this capital will flow back into the USA. The final take away from this is the US markets see's strength not from "Real growth" but from countries where people have no option to diverse and enter the US market. "Forecasters recession this recession that" it never equals what the markets actually do.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
3
Copper - Did Social Media Tell You To Long The CCP Again?They call copper "Doctor Copper" because it's said to forecast the overall world economic conditions on account of being tightly wed to manufacturing. Well, what people are really yammering about with that over the last 20 years is whether or not the Chinese Communist Party is healthy, and the world by proxy being healthy because it tied itself to the most heinous regime in history, the one responsible for the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the accompanying organ harvesting and genocide. Unfortunately for all the blind bulls, the early 2021-2022 price action was a pretty good indication of a top, and that top is really confirmed by the fact that since October of '22, this bounce has been pretty weak, and starting this month, with all the drama surrounding the slow collapse of the Chinese economy, took out the previous two months' lows. Monthly shows you that August price action took both the July and June lows. Like, that's not the kind of "signal" you want to see to get long for a new all time high. When something is retracing to take out major highs, you want to see lows rarely violated with something of a freight train towards the old highs. Weekly bars show us something of a subtle pattern where it looks like it's just taken some lows and is consolidating and continually flirting with going back up. But in reality the market makers are, most likely, just selling more under the previous $4.00 area. And if that's really true, it means another gap down is imminent, especially after an entire quarter of ranging. If you ask me, the first area that you can look for a long that is more than a scalp on copper is under $2.8, which is a critical pivot from September. And a more likely target in the next 12 months is the $2.00 mark, which was barely swept out in the COVID drama. The reality is, my friends, the Chinese Communist Party is going to fall overnight in our lifetimes. Not five or ten years from now. But very shortly, and everything is going to change. Whether that is caused by Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP to protect himself and China from being taken over by the International Rules Based Order as it uses Taiwan as a soft proxy war, or because the whole world collapses under the results of the persecution of Falun Dafa, since everyone's been going to Shanghai to worship the toads and the Devil Red to get financial benefits. This is the danger. The danger is imminent. But copper trades painfully slowly, so if you want to do this you have to have long duration, ignore the noise, and be willing to suffer some drawdown. China under the CCP is never going to recover. Things are never going to be okay ever again. Things will be okay once mankind returns to tradition. But there won't be an international stock market like this anymore that day.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by LordWrymouth
Australian dollar edges up ahead of inflation reportThe Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6437, up 0.12% on the day. China's economic slowdown is bad news for the Australian economy, which counts China as its biggest export market. China's imports have been falling and as a result, commodity prices have dropped, hurting Australia's exports of iron ore and gold to China. China continues to record weak economic numbers and this will likely be reflected in lower GDP releases, although economic growth is above 5%. The Australian dollar is sensitive to China's economic strength and has declined by around 3% in the third quarter. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on September 5th and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.10% for a second straight month. There are clear signs of the economy cooling, including inflation and wage growth easing and a slight rise in unemployment. The RBA would like to extend the pause in rate hikes, with an eye on lowering rates sometime in 2024. All eyes will be on Australia's July inflation report which will be released on Wednesday. Inflation has been falling, albeit slowly. In June, inflation fell from 5.5% to 5.4% and the consensus estimate for July is 5.2%. If inflation drops to 5.2% or lower, it should cement a RBA pause in September. A higher rate than 5.2% won't necessarily mean a rate hike, but it would likely lower the odds of a pause, which are currently around 90%. In the US, it is a busy Tuesday with consumer confidence and employment releases. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index has been on the rise and soared to 117.0 in July, up from 110.1 in June. The estimate for August is 116.0 points. JOLTS Job Openings is projected to decelerate for a second straight month in July, from 9.58 million to 9.46 million. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6424 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6360 There is resistance at 0.6470 and 0.6531
by OANDA
Shanghai Stock Market (SSE Composite Index): A Closer LookThe Shanghai Stock Market is like a financial puzzle, and right now, it's showing us some interesting moves. First, the rise in the 10-year yield from 3-year lows suggests that there might be changing expectations about economic growth, inflation, or monetary policy. This could be due to a variety of factors such as improved economic prospects, inflation concerns, or changes in the global interest rate environment. The central bank also did something important by closing a 5-billion yuan money deal. It's like they're keeping a watchful eye on how money is moving around. On top of that, they pumped a massive 385 billion yuan into the system, which can make things more exciting. Now, let's talk about Ichimoku Cloud analysis. It's like a weather forecast for the stock market. Right now, it's showing that the market might be heading up, which is a positive sign. However, the cloud isn't very thick. This means we should be a bit cautious. There's another important sign on this chart. Tenkan points up, suggesting the market might go up soon, even though it's under Kijun resistance line. It's a bit like seeing a green light at an intersection, even if the other light is still red. So, as we decode these numbers and signals, it's clear that the Shanghai Stock Market is in a state of flux, with various factors at play. Investors will need to stay vigilant, considering both the data and the bigger economic picture to make informed decisions in the coming year.
SSE:000001
by TheAltcoinBuff
China50 forming a bottom?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12555 (stop at 12435) Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Previous resistance at 12530 now becomes support. 12531 has been pivotal. Support is located at 12530 and should stem dips to this area. Buying posted in Asia. Our profit targets will be 12855 and 12935 Resistance: 12700 / 12850 / 13000 Support: 12600 / 12530 / 12450 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
VANTAGE:CHINA50Long
by VantageMarkets
Coal Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Neutral-Bullish AccumulationNewcastle Thermal Coal Futures breaking out of short-term downtrend + Neutral-Bullish Accumulation around 78.6% Fib Retracement. Still within larger downtrend after steep sell-off through later half of 2022 into 2023. (Coal) embers likely re-igniting due to recent China stimulus measures & other macro-economic influences, TBC. Highlighted preliminary Trading Range 174.05-129. On watch for further price action development &/or break out of range in either direction. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers. Futures: ICEEUR:NCF1! ICEEUR:NCF2! ASX: ASX:WHC ASX:NHC ASX:YAL ASX:SMR ASX:TER
ICEEUR:NCF2!
by BlueHatInvestor