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Could India continue to drive returns for Emerging Markets?India shined as one of the best performing markets globally in 2023 despite high global inflation, rising interest rates, and unstable geopolitics. The Sensex and Nifty, two widely followed benchmarks for the Indian markets, grew 19.57% and 21.11% respectively in US Dollar (USD) terms1. India’s economy displayed strong local retail demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rates and healthy foreign exchange reserves. India also enjoyed relatively healthy relations with most major economies of the world and cautiously navigated the geopolitical conflicts. As we look ahead in 2024, we remain confident that India, driven by a host of macroeconomic factors, is a long-term story and one that could last for years if not decades to come. National elections are due to be held around May 2024. Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a historic third term and it is highly likely that the ruling party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will once again win with a full majority. India benefits from Modi’s pro-business and pro-growth policies and a stable political environment further boosts prospects to realise rapid growth. We analysed the performance of BSE Sensex, one of the widely followed benchmarks of the Indian stock market, pre and post elections. On average, the Indian markets displayed positive performance, delivering over 31% returns over the year leading up to elections, combined with the year after election results. This is despite the global financial crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 drawdown negatively impacting the performance leading to 2009 elections, and after the 2019 elections respectively. We expect this trend to continue with the likely return of the incumbent government. Of course, should Modi lose, some of the recent gains might reverse. However, that seems highly unlikely, given the state of opposition, as multiple political parties, including some with completely unaligned agendas have joined hands to prevent a third Modi term. This was evident over the five recent elections in which the BJP won by huge majority in three of the largest states with a high proportion of the Lok Sabha (national election) constituencies. Other important factors that investors might want to keep an eye on during the year: 1. Rate cuts – The Federal Reserve’s pace and timing on rate cuts will impact global markets and India is no different. The quicker and higher the cuts, the more the capital expected to be diverted towards equities, and with a strong momentum from the previous year, India might be one of the top picks in the Emerging Markets. 2. Crude oil prices – The Indian economy heavily depends on the import of crude oil. The higher the crude oil prices, the more the stress on India’s foreign current accounts. Drops in crude oil could help India’s economy grow faster and allow more room for spending on growth and infrastructure. India is simultaneously also working to reduce dependency on crude oil by diversifying into ethanol. Over the last few years, ethanol production has increased manifold and there is rising pressure to increase the usage of ethanol-blended fuel to power vehicles. This could potentially save the country much needed cash and help direct it to fuel economic growth and reduce fiscal deficits. 3. China decoupling – India has emerged as one of the most credible contenders to help diversify manufacturing out of China. For example, Apple established a considerable footprint and plans to scale up operations multi-fold; significant investments and subsidies were introduced to attract semiconductor companies from Taiwan; and there are also suggestions that Tesla is looking to enter India with a USD 2 billion investment into a manufacturing facility based in the state of Gujrat. One of the most iconic policies of the current government over the last decade has been ‘Make in India’. The government will be pushing hard to attract more companies to set up manufacturing plants in India and leverage the success of ‘Make in India’ among voters. 4. Geopolitical instability – India has been relatively less impacted by geopolitical conflicts around the globe. India maintained its neutral stance and successfully managed to stand firm despite pressure from the west by importing discounted oil from Russia to ensure its energy security, while at the same time pitched itself as a closer ally to the US to counter the growing China threat. 5. Retail flows – In the recent years, India witnessed increasing participation of retail investors in the stock market. There are 80 million unique investors in the Indian stock markets that invest through the NSE.2 Moreover, the size of mutual fund AUM is around 24% currently compared to 11% a decade ago. The strong retail presence helps add stability to the Indian markets in events of global instability and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows. Conclusion We strongly believe that India is a multi-decade story, and we are in very early stages of it. India has made tremendous progress in privatising corruption and debt-ridden state-owned companies, with disinvestments fetching USD 50 billion for the government over the last 10 years, out of which close to USD 40 billion was realised from sales of minority stakes, while close to USD 10 billion was realised from strategic transactions in 10 CPSEs – with the most notable being Air India3. This has helped in making companies more accountable to investors and more accessible via the stock market. Sources 1 Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. 2 Source: According to recent comments from CEO of National Stock Exchange (NSE) 3 See: Disinvestment fetches over Rs 4.20 lakh cr in 10 years but target to be missed again in FY24, December 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NSE:NIFTY
by aneekaguptaWTE
NIO, TEST DUMMIES NEEDED, BUY THE DIP OR LET CRASH?I like the Chinese stocks Nio is one of them There is some downside showing still as far as I can tell It is leading to an old support trend, however, I don't know if that is relevant anymore. I like the potential of buy the dip under $5.4 Subject to change quickly. but right now, bullish on the next decent dip. Drawn in line is what I'm currently seeing as an ideal scenario, do not follow line, instead follow trends and price targets. Line is often inaccurate, but helps me reanalyze my indicators. The lowest number I could see was around 2.8 or 2.9. unlikely, but you never know, completely possible. After 14.9, it can go higher, but a new chart will be needed, and will likely be needed before that point arrives.
NYSE:NIOLong
by nicktussing77
Anta Sports: Final Descent 🛬Anta Sports recently continued to rise after an impulsive downward spike narrowly missed the magenta Target Zone between HK$58.95 and HK$33.60. Thus, it is quite possible that this downward spike has already completed the low of the green wave (2) and that the stock is now marching higher. However, we are not convinced that this is the case, so we believe that the stock will soon pull back, drop below the support level of HK$67.85, and then run into our magenta Target Zone. Once this has been explored, we expect the wave (1) in magenta to lead to strong rallies above the resistance at HK$125.30.
HKEX:2020Long
by MarketIntel
Shanghai Comp SHCOMP ~ Bearish H&S Update (Feb 2024)SSE:000001 chart mapping/analysis. Been a while since I've published any charts on TradingView - process is a pain in the a$$ tbh & procrastination crept in while lacking TA-edge on markets + other commitments.. That said, noticed Shanghai Comp chart still notching views given current environment so thought I'd give an update. Initial TA thesis hasn't changed - bearish H&S identified in Dec 2023 completed & still in play, despite PBOC desperately throwing everything to keep their market afloat (don't fight the trend). Chart notes: Cleaned up clutter from previous chart Added descending parallel channel for potential bounce play off lower trend-line Labelled 50/200 EMA death cross to signify bear market trend (weekly chart) Break below ~2666 = further capitulation Break above ~2924 (R1) = bullish trend reversal Stay tuned whether I get back on TradingView horse & update older charts or publish new ones, cheers.
SSE:000001Short
by BlueHatInvestor
BABA, BIG POTENTIAL FOR EARNINGS BREAKOUT (BULLISH)Like the title says, Bullish. There is so much going on behind the scenes based on the world events today. BUT, in the end, BABA is going to be a big supplier of goods across the Asia continent, and there are a LOT of people to sell to. Put/Call chart is included, I've highlighted the outliers. Does this mean I'm suggesting to yolo puts and calls? Probably not, but to be totally honest, if you do, I wish luck and hope you make bank. However, I'd say it's risky for short term options. Long term options on the other hand, if you can buy the spread dip, I like the prices on calls. I personally think BABA will be a rise and crash stock. There are numbers showing well in the range of 600 and 700. Similar to TSLA (previous run), META (current run). Similar, not exact, but similar. Would I be surprised if the stock was $800 by Sept, NOPE. Would I expect the stock to be at $800 by Sept, NOPE. Possible and probable are two different things. I'm currently eying the potential to hold $63, and maybe even already has and will hold $69, but it's good to be prepared on the low side in case of drops. RSI is in alignment for one hell of a move to the upside should it want to use earnings as an excuse to rocket. Basically, in all, my opinion on BABA based on the chart, I'm a fan currently. In other words, there is a better than average chance for profit and limited losses should you decide to buy at these levels. If you invest in amazon, you'd probably love BABA, especially if you can sell one at a high, and buy the other at a low, and then keep repeating the process until you own them both. Good luck!
NYSE:BABALong
by nicktussing77
1
Tencent: Turn around! 🔄Tencent remains in our magenta-colored (long) Target Zone, which extends from HK$302.60 on the upper edge to HK$237.40 on the lower edge. It is still our primary assumption that the stock will establish another marginally lower low within this price range. Once the wave (2) in magenta has been completed, we expect the price to rise above the resistance at HK$416.60. At this point, however, it should be noted once again that the (minimum) requirements for the wave (2) correction, which the stock has been dealing with for almost a year now, were met with the approach of the Zone - as a result, a direct breakout to the upside would be quite conceivable from a technical point of view. Until then, the Target Zone continues to offer the opportunity to position oneself on the long side.
HKEX:700Long
by MarketIntel
1
AUD/CAD Analysis: Current Outlook plus fundamental Here's a simplified analysis for AUD/CAD: Long-term view from the weekly chart indicates a bearish trend. Mid-term perspective on the daily chart shows a broken bullish channel, replaced by a bearish one. Considering fundamental factors: Escalating tensions in the Middle East may increase the chance of the Beijing-Taipei conflict, potentially impacting AUD negatively. Long-term, increased oil prices due to these middle-east tensions may favor CAD. Given these factors, AUD/CAD is more likely to maintain a bearish trend over the long term. Stay informed for further developments. Best regards,
Short
by AliSignals
Meituan: Turning Point ⤴️Meituan's price is still trading at the lower end of the magenta Target Zone between HK$96.90 and HK$64. Our primary assumption remains that the stock is already working on the wave 1 rises in turquoise - and that it should soon leave the resistance at HK$103.50 well behind it. However, we must continue to weight the option with a 35% probability that the stock will still undercut our Target Zone in order to complete the correction only below the low of wave alt. (2) in green.
HKEX:3690Long
by MarketIntel
Are we close to peak China pessimism?President Xi Jinping’s New Year address put paid to hopes of much larger stimulus. In his address, President Xi pointed to the consolidation and enhancement of the economic recovery and no signs of a boost from policy coming. Furthermore, China’s economic growth for 2023 came out at 5.2%, above the central government’s 5% forecast, which it boasted it was able to achieve without relying on large stimulus. China’s real GDP growth to slow further in 2024. Investors' pessimism towards China’s economy could be nearing a peak given recent efforts by policymakers to stabilize sentiment. Policymakers acting to stabilize sentiment: China’s policymakers are feeling the need to stabilize investor sentiment and this week have taken two steps in this direction. First, following a recent State Council meeting, Premier Li Qiang suggested help is on the way for China’s beleaguered stock market. Newswire reports suggest this help could include CNY 2.3trn of funds (mainly from SOEs) to buy Chinese equities to prop up the market. Such a measure could help put a bottom on investors’ China pessimism. However, such purchases would not address their underlying concerns including a weak residential property market, local government debts, the lack of policy easing, and the risk of another regulatory clampdown. Second, the PBoC surprised with an RRR cut as well as a cut to its re-lending and discount rates. While I was expecting cuts to both, the size and timing were surprising given the recent disappointment of the PBoC keeping its MLF on hold. The PBoC also sounded dovish suggesting further room to ease policy given the gap between actual and target prices and the Fed’s pivot towards easing. Check out my other ideas:
TVC:HSILong
by Elite_Forex
DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS (Global Conflict Summary EDITION)Per the council of foreign relations, these are the following current global conflicts. I've included a brief description of each conflict. It's important to understand these if you're planning or already are investing in defense stocks. Per TA, I've labeled bearish price targets, bullish price targets, relevant trends. It looks overvalued from analysis on ITA, but there is upside. I'd say that short term probably favors bulls (talking maybe weeks if not less), mid term probably favors the bears (multiple months), long term will likely favor bulls, but it will depend on the movement we see over FEB and March. Global Conflict Summary Americas Criminal Violence in Mexico The criminal violence in Mexico involves various organizations such as Sinaloa, Los Zetas, Tijuana/AFO, Juárez/CFO, Beltrán Leyva, Gulf, La Familia Michoacana, the Knights Templar, and Cartel Jalisco Nuevo Generación (CJNG). The violence is attributed to the increase in crime rates and the limited interventions by the state and municipal police. Instability in Haiti The instability in Haiti involves the government, opposition parties, and the international community. The crisis revolves around the dispute over the presidential term and the government’s inability to control skyrocketing prices of commodities. Instability in Venezuela Venezuela is facing an unprecedented social and humanitarian collapse due to poor economic policies, political conflict, and the international community’s unsuccessful attempts to bring about positive change. The conflict involves the government under President Nicolás Maduro and opposition groups. Asia Instability in Afghanistan Since the Taliban reclaimed control of Afghanistan in 2021, the country has further plunged into political and economic instability. The conflict involves the Afghan government, the Taliban, and various local and international actors. Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea China’s sweeping claims of sovereignty over the sea have antagonized competing countries. The key parties involved in this territorial dispute are China, the Philippines, and the US. North Korea Crisis North Korea could resort to nuclear weapons in a crisis as it is making significant progress toward implementing a more robust nuclear strategy. The crisis involves North Korea, South Korea, the United States, Japan, and other international actors. Instability in Pakistan Pakistan continues to face multiple sources of internal and external conflict. Extremism and intolerance of diversity and dissent have grown, threatening the country’s prospects for social cohesion and stability. The conflict involves the Pakistani government, opposition groups like the Pakistan Muslim League and the Pakistan Peoples Party, and militant groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Conflict Between India and Pakistan Since 1947, India and Pakistan have been involved in a number of wars, conflicts, and military standoffs, with the Kashmir conflict serving as the catalyst for every war between the two states. The conflict primarily involves India and Pakistan, with the disputed region of Kashmir being a major point of contention. Confrontation Over Taiwan Tensions are rising over Taiwan as China’s power and assertiveness grows, competition between the U.S. and China spreads, and the Taiwanese people develop a distinct identity increasingly disassociated from the mainland. The key parties involved in this conflict are China, Taiwan, and the US. Civil War in Myanmar The civil war in Myanmar escalated significantly in response to the 2021 military coup d’état and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests. The conflict involves the National Unity Government, People’s Defence Force, Chinland Defence Force, Chin National Defence Force, Karenni Nationalities Defence Force, and other ethnic armed organizations against the State Administration Council and Tatmadaw. Europe and Eurasia War in Ukraine The war in Ukraine involves Ukraine and Russia. The conflict is over the sovereignty of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, which Russia annexed in 2014. Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict involves Armenia and Azerbaijan. The dispute is over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but is governed by ethnic Armenians. Middle East and North Africa Conflict in Syria The conflict in Syria involves the Syrian government, opposition groups, and various international actors. The civil war began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring protests and has since escalated into a multi-sided conflict involving numerous factions and foreign powers. Instability in Iraq The instability in Iraq involves the Iraqi government, various ethnic and religious groups, and international actors. The conflict stems from sectarian tensions, political instability, and the presence of ISIS. Israeli-Palestinian Conflict The Israeli-Palestinian conflict involves Israel, Palestine, and various international actors. The conflict is over the sovereignty of the Palestinian territories and the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. Sub-Saharan Africa Conflict in the Central African Republic The conflict in the Central African Republic involves the government, various rebel groups, and international actors. The conflict stems from political instability, ethnic tensions, and control over the country’s rich natural resources. Conflict in Ethiopia The conflict in Ethiopia involves the Ethiopian government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and various ethnic and regional groups. The conflict stems from political tensions, ethnic disputes, and disagreements over the country’s system of ethnic federalism. Please note that this is a brief summary and does not cover all aspects of the conflicts. For more detailed information, please conduct further research.
CBOE:ITA
by nicktussing77
Morgan Stanley rated A the Ping An Insurance for secong year Revenue: $156.2 billion Net Income: $14.7 billion Market Cap: $114.8 billion 1-Year Trailing Total Return: ~7.5% Exchange: OTC Markets According to Investopedia, it is the 3rd biggest Chinese company and in the top 5 insurance companies in the world Ping An Insurance provides insurance, financial services, and banking. It is one of the top 50 companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Founded in 1988, it was China's first joint-stock insurance company. Its subsidiaries include Ping An Life, Ping An Property & Casualty, Ping An Annuity, and Ping An Health. Hong Kong and Shanghai, Nov. 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, a powerhouse in the insurance sector, proudly declares its stellar achievement in the latest Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Ratings by Morgan Stanley Capital Investment (MSCI). Securing an A rating for the second consecutive year, Ping An reaffirms its commitment to sustainable practices. Notably, the Group maintains its top-tier position in the multi-line insurance & brokerage industry in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. This accolade underscores Ping An's unwavering dedication to excellence and responsible corporate citizenship. Investors take note of Ping An's remarkable ESG track record as it continues to lead the way in the industry. Ping An takes proactive steps in addressing climate change challenges, utilizing its integrated finance capabilities to advance green finance initiatives and support China's ambitious targets of achieving "carbon peak and neutrality in 2030 and 2060 respectively." In responsible investment, Ping An implements the active ownership principle, integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors into research, analysis, and investment decisions. The company actively oversees and participates in ESG management for portfolio companies, ensuring their healthy development. By June 2023, Ping An's green investments in insurance assets reached an impressive RMB140.929 billion. The current entry-level is looking promising being close to the all-time lows with much higher upside potential than the downward one.
OTC:PNGAYLong
by Elite_Forex
QQQ TRENDS AND PRICE TARGETS, HOW MANY Q's SHOULD ONE HAVE?Technicals RSI is overextending, however, a little cool down would reset the indicators and trigger buy signals across the board. Bears should be looking for an entry, but not entering yet. Plan out a trade. Bulls should be locking in profits and looking to buy the dip. There are two super short term trends that are taking the price up. They are both rejection trends, which are trending in the bullish direction, in other words, price is going up following those trends. There is a huge rejection trend labeled. There is a mega support trend labeled. There is a strong support trend labeled, which should likely trigger a buy signal should it fall to that support or possibly dip under for a brief period of time. Above 480 starts to increase risk. it can go higher to 500, and then possibly even to 600. 500 is way more likely than 600 on this run. short term, again, could use a cool down to like 393. I would suggest to wait for this cool down to enter expecting bullish movement. With price falling to multiple strong support lines, it is a favorable trade. Price can keep going up. Don't expect it to go down. But understand, if it does, you'll be prepared for that movement, and have a trade with a high potential of profit. If you miss out on a run because you were caution, simply wait for a rejection point and jump in short. Ride the wave down, then enter your long position. In other words, don't chase the movement, let the movement come to you, let it move past you, then ride the movement in your desired direction. Linking my other QQQ posts and SPY posts I usually don't TA these because I tend to trade the 3x leveraged (FNGU FNGD is one of my favorites), and I tend to get predictions wrong on these two. Will link some old ones talking about spy to 480 in the election year. MY MISTAKE was I thought the election year was 2023, so it was way off.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by nicktussing77
Dr. Copper Sets Sights on Higher LevelsDr. Copper has recently demonstrated signs of strength, largely attributed to China's stimulus measures. This price surge is occurring within a pattern of consistently higher lows since the lows of 2023. It's important to highlight that this upward momentum previously broke through the downtrend line stemming from the highs of 2023. Following its breakthrough of the $3.82 resistance level yesterday, attention is now focused on the potential for a sustained positive price trend. If the industrial metal maintains a price above $3.82 per pound, it could set its sights on the psychologically significant level of $4 and the resistance level established in August. These levels appear to be potential objectives worth considering in the near future.
PEPPERSTONE:COPPERLong
by Pepperstone
Tesla Faces Headwinds: EV Fleet Sale and Intense Price WarTesla experienced a notable setback, with its stock falling as much as 4.2% during Friday's trading session. This decline marks the 11th drop in 12 sessions. The dip follows Hertz Global Holdings Inc.'s announcement of plans to sell off a third of its U.S. electric-vehicle fleet, contributing to the downward pressure on Tesla's shares. Adding to the challenges, Tesla has been navigating a complex landscape in China. Since late 2022, the company has engaged in a series of price cuts, triggering responses from other manufacturers and putting pressure on profit margins across the industry. Domestic players like Xpeng Inc. and BYD Co., as well as global giants like Volkswagen AG, have joined the price-cutting competition to defend their market share Technically we have a good opportunity to position, but as I always advise in my posts don't take full size position before the move is already happening. 0.5 Risk now with another addition of 0.5 to the full risk which as a Risk Management should not be more than 1-2% of the total portfolio. BOOST THE IDEA AND COMMENT YOUR OPINION . . .
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Elite_Forex
HSI: Already finished? 👀The HSI has risen sharply since Monday. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the index is still working on a magenta-colored downward structure and is therefore not yet finished with its correction. Only after this five-part wave, and thus the turquoise-colored wave 3, has come to an end should things pick up a good bit - even if there is still further downside on a Long-term level. However, there is also a 33% probable alternative, which envisages a sustained rise and considers the past low to be the low of the green wave alt.(2). This scenario comes into effect if the resistance at 18 846 points is exceeded.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by MarketIntel
DXY v's Brazil Russia India China B.R.I.C. CurrenciesNote how the two large pattern #HVF's kept you dollar long as the main directional trade from 2011 to 2022 But things may be turning around and this trade may, potentially be reversing. Often when commentators have given up on the idea of a multi polar world, end of dollar dominance , as price keep going the opposite direction. Is when the trade actually starts to kick into gear. These are major resource nations , with 40% of global pop. 30% of the land and well over a 1/4 of global GDP Would make sense to see this basket of currencies outperform our beloved Greenback.
TVC:DXYShort
by BallaJi
Alibaba - Buy The DipHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Alibaba. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: Starting in 2016 Alibaba created a pretty obvious higher timeframe bullish reversal which was followed by a crazy bullrun on Alibaba stock. In 2021 Alibaba broke below a major bullish trendline and dropped more than -70%. If we see another bullish reversal at the $65 level and a break above the trendline mentioned in the analysis, I am looking for bullish trading setups. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
NYSE:BABA
by basictradingtv
1
China’s Auto Exports Surge 58% to Record High in 2023 The development follows another milestone for Chinese auto exports after they hit more than 3 million vehicles in 2022 and over 2 million in 2021, the report said. The latest record was driven by a surge in exports of new energy vehicles, which climbed 77.6% in 2023 to more than 1.2 million units, according to the report. Overall auto sales in China climbed 12% year over year to 30.1 million units, while output rose 11.6% to 30.2 million units, Xinhua added. Nio: - Trading at 35% below our estimate of its fair value - Revenue is forecast to grow 22.58% per year
NYSE:NIOLong
by Maximus20000