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SHCOMP ~ Snapshot TA / Bearish H&S Development (TBC) / WeeklyChina's Economy is dangerously on the ropes...things have gotten so bad, CCP had to make an announcement on a Sunday night (AEST/UC+10) that they're going to intervene in their domestic market with a raft of "measures" in hopes of boosting market confidence: - Halve stamp duty on stock trading - Tighten pace of IPO listings - Cut margin financing requirements - Restrict listed companies' refinancing - Restrict share reductions by major shareholders My gut instinct tells me this will be a financial disaster...luckily we've got charts to tell us what's really going on. Taking a (Snapshot TA) look, SSE:000001 appears to be developing a Bearish H&S. Extrapolating Head-to-Neckline indicates price could be heading towards a pretty interesting Confluence Zone : - Gap fill (weekly) - Retrace to previous 2014 break-out (aka Return to Scene of Crime) - Key demand/support zone - Multi-decade trend line Note: While chart patterns (ie H&S) are great at spotting trends, etc. it's important to focus on associated demand/supply zones & how price interacts with key levels to determine when & where to scale in/out of positions. All (technical) signs point to SHCOMP in process of capitulating...problem with Govt interventions is it becomes a momentum play in either direction & technicals take a back seat. We'll just have to take note of critical levels, set alerts & wait for the dust to settle.. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) CFD/INDEX: PEPPERSTONE:CN50 PEPPERSTONE:HK50 US: NASDAQ:AIA AMEX:FXI AMEX:EEM AMEX:CQQQ AMEX:KWEB ASX: ASX:IAA ASX:IZZ ASX:IEM ASX:CNEW ASX:ASIA
SSE:000001
by BlueHatInvestor
Tesla - What To Expect Until September?I heard something rather enlightening on Twitter recently, and it was someone who quoted some sort of analyst as pointing out "Tesla is its own market." I think that's really correct, and really apt, especially in light of a recent analysis of the new JPM collar that dropped on Friday, where I anticipate a very violent and very major drop in the markets until Q3. SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' The point is that Tesla can (and has; and will) go up or go down regardless of what the indexes are doing This call is also a continuation of a very successful call I had on Tesla posted in February. Things took several months to pan out to the downside and then to the upside, but everything came to fruition: Tesla - $250 Is Coming... Don't Lose Your Legs In the Bear Trap The key thing with Tesla, especially for the long term holders who think this company has a $3 trillion valuation in it like Apple does, is the Q4 dump to almost exactly $100 was anything but bullish. But fortunately, this "bearishness" has manifested in a significant bounce, and, in my opinion, the Party hasn't yet stopped here. Speaking of "The Party," you have to be very careful with Tesla because Elon Musk decided to root a huge bulk of his company's production with a Gigafactory in Shanghai-Babylon. This leaves this company open to exceptionally enormous geopolitical and fundamental risks as President Xi Jinping faces the possibility of having to dump the Chinese Communist Party overnight, any night, because of the battle against both the remnants of the Jiang Zemin faction inside China and the "International Rules Based Order" that's rooted itself in Taiwan. To put it plainly, the IRBO wants to take over China using someone it has groomed from The Republic when the CCP falls, with the idea being to take down Xi with the Party. The "Jiang Faction" is significant because it's the architect and conductor of the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners. The sins are grave to the extreme and can (and will) be weaponized to put an end to the threats to Cathay. With Tesla, I believe it's going to dump, and with some fury. And during the process, you'll hear a lot of FUD about blah blah fundamentals this, blah blah "can you believe how this ponzi is dumping people who bought $250 will be generational bagholders" that on social media. You need to ignore all of that, because the day Tesla breaks $100 is the day Tesla is finished. Moreover, Tesla is about to give you a buying opportunity in the $180 range. Remember that whole adage about "buy the dip"? You're about to get the opportunity, again, but it won't feel very good because things will be scary and it will seem like everything is going to zero, and tomorrow. Seriously, read the JPM collar post above. Once the dust has settled, if the April lows remain intact, then the next target is the equal highs printed in July to September before the enormous sell off, amounting to nearly another two bagger. But perhaps what Tesla really is aiming for is something Musk can get high on. If by early September you see the price bouncing and try to short, it'll more or less turn out as bad as it did for NVDIA bears. No matter how you complain about P/E ratios and market cap and comparisons to Ford and Toyota, the reality is, this is what a bearish market structure actually looks like in action. The banks sell on red and buy on green. You buy on green and sell on red. It's a painful reality, isn't it?
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by LordWrymouth
6
NZD/USD climbs ahead of retail salesThe New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5959, up 0.55%. On the data calendar, New Zealand retail sales are expected to decline by 2.6% q/q in the second quarter, compared to -1.4% in Q1. The New Zealand dollar has gone on a dreadful slide since mid-July, falling as much as 500 basis points during that spell. The current downswing has been driven by weak global demand and jitters over China's economy, which is showing alarming signs of deterioration. Chinese releases have been pointing downward recently. Exports and imports have fallen, manufacturing activity is weak and the world's second-largest economy is experiencing deflation. Last week, Evergrande, a huge Chinese property developer, filed for bankruptcy in the United States, raising fears of contagion to other parts of the economy. It wasn't long ago that the Chinese 'miracle' was being touted as an economic powerhouse on the global stage, but now the world's second-largest economy is in deep trouble and is dragging down global growth. An interesting silver lining is that deflation in China could help lower inflation worldwide, which would be good news for the Fed, ECB and other central banks that are battling to push inflation lower. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has responded in recent days to the economic slowdown with some cuts to lending rates, but surprisingly, has not trimmed the five-year loan prime rate, which has a major impact on mortgages. The PBOC's lukewarm move to the economic crisis could mean China's economy will continue to sputter, and that is bad news for the New Zealand dollar, as China is by far New Zealand's largest trading partner. If Chinese releases continue to head lower, we can expect the New Zealand dollar to continue losing ground. NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.5941 and is putting pressure on resistance at 0.5978 There is support at 0.5885 and close by at 0.5848
by OANDA
BABA BULLISH CONTINUATIONBABA is on a good recovery streak with, steady gain and consolidation, following a solid support line since October 22'. China's economy and development are almost recovered from the horrible decline during the multiple lockdowns and manufacturing shutdowns. The gain/consolidation we are witnessing in the last several months is having an amplitude of 10-15$ which is likely to repeat unless something dramatic happens. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:BABALong
by legacyFXofficial
How is Your Trading This Year?30Y Micro Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ), Micro Nasdaq ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ), Chinese Yuan ( CME:CNH1! ), Live Cattle ( CME:LE1! ) On January 2nd, I published an idea titled “Year of the Rabbit: ‘Short-tailed’ Trading”. My outlook for the new year was: “In the new year, uncertainties will remain the key price drivers of global stock markets: central bank policy, inflation, economic growth, geopolitical crisis, and China reopening. Depending on the specific outcome, the impact of a given factor could range from very positive to very negative, and anything in between.” Eight months into 2023, we have witnessed some extraordinary events playing out: • US regional bank crisis shocked the global financial markets. However, swift government actions helped starve off a chain reaction that could trigger systemic risk; • Decades-high US inflation has quickly come down. Fed tightening policy does work, even though it usually has a 10-month lag; • The US debt ceiling has found a resolution. Instead of raising the debt limit, Congress suspected it for two years. In a matter of two months, the national debt has increased by $1.3 trillion. This helped push Fitch to downgrade the US sovereignty rating; • China reopened after three years of Zero-Covid policy. While the economy rebounded in Q1, it quickly deteriorated in Q2. The economic engine seems to lose steam quickly. Trading Strategies Revisited Under these macro backdrops, it’s a good time to revisit some of my own trade ideas. I write on TradingView weekly and have published 31 ideas so far in 2023. Of these ideas, TradingView selected 13 to be featured on “Editors’ Picks”. Below are recaps of four ideas published in July and August. July 10th: Housing Cost Jumps Amid Falling Inflation Trade Idea: Long CBOT 30-Year Micro Yield Futures ($30Y) My theory: • The decline in home sales countered the effect of rising funding cost, putting the mortgage rates in sideway moves. • Now that the housing market recovers, 30-year Fixed could be on the way up. • July FOMC meeting could provide a boost if the Fed raises 25 bp as as indicated by the Fed Watch tool? . Hypothetical Result for Illustration Purpose Only: • Changes in market prices: August contract (30YQ3) was quoted 4.012 on July 7th and 4.381 on August 18th, an increase of 369 points; • Gain (Loss): Each point is worth $1. Therefore, 1 long 30YQ3 would gain $369; • Return: Using the $290 margin as cost base, this trade would have a return of 127%. Where are we now? It’s my long-held belief that the negative yield curve environment would reverse back to normal. Yield spread is finally narrowing. 30Y yield is now higher than 10Y yield. July 24th: Implications of Nasdaq 100 Rebalancing Trade Idea: Spread trade – Buy S&P Technology Select Sector Futures ($XAK) and Sell Micro Nasdaq 100 Futures ($MNQ) My theory: • The Nasdaq 100 rebalancing is a unique issue with the Nasdaq 100 index. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of these companies and has no impact on other Tech sector stock indexes which also include the same component companies; • In the long run, Nasdaq 100 rebalance will dilute the impact of the largest stocks. Strong growth in Big Tech will be fully represented in XAK but capped in MNQ. Hypothetical Result for Illustration Purpose Only: • Market prices: MNQ and XAK were quoted 1,786.60 and 15,555 respectively on July 21st. On August 18th, they were settled on 1,665.20 and 14,744, respectively. • Trade setup: 1 XAK - 6 MNQ = (1 * 1786.6 * 100) - (6 * 15555 * 2) = 8,000 • Initial margins: 9500 + 1680 * 6 = $19,580 • New Spread value = (1 * 1665.2 * 100) - (6 * 14744 * 2) = 10,408 • Gain (Loss):10,408 – 8,000 = $2,408; • Return: Using the $19,580 margin as cost base, this trade would have a return of 12%. Where are we now? As expected, XAK held up better than MNQ even though both were trending down. August 7th: What Disinflation: Beef Price Went Up 64% in 5 Years Trade Idea: Short Cattle-Hog Spread – Sell Live Cattle ( NASDAQ:LE ) and Buy Lean Hog ( NYSE:HE ) My theory: • In my opinion, the cost factor pushing pork prices up in the short run is greater than the supply-demand force that drives up beef prices in the long run. • There may be room to short the cattle-hog spread, until pork prices stabilize in a new equilibrium. Hypothetical Result for Illustration Purpose Only: • Market prices: LE and HE were quoted 183.10 and 83.25 respectively on August 4th. The cattle-hog spread was 99.85; On August 18th, the new spread was 96.41 (LE 178.53 vs. HE 82.13) • Gain (Loss): The cattle-hog spread was narrowed by 3.44. Since we short the spread, we would gain $1,378 (=3.44 x 400); • Return: Using the $3,200 margin as cost base, this trade would have a return of 43%. Where are we now? Cattle futures were down 2.5% while hog lost 1.4%, which helped narrow the spread. August 14th: CNH – Hedging Currency Risks Trade Idea: Long USD/Offshore RMB Futures ( FWB:CNH ) My theory: • The key drivers in the US/China currency exchange rate: relative interest rates; relative stock market performance; relative economic strength; and the dynamics of the US-China relations. • Yuan could break out of the recent range with USDCNH going above 7.50, if there are more headwinds ahead Hypothetical Result for Illustration Purpose Only: • Market prices: September contract (CNHU3) was quoted 7.2646 on August 11th and 7.2921 on August 18th, an increase of 275 points; • Gain (Loss): Each point is worth 10 yuan. The gain would be 2750 yuan, or $377 at current market price; • Return: Using the $21,100 margin as cost base, this trade would have a return of 1.8%. Where are we now? • Since I published this idea a week ago, the CNH exchange rate broke critical support levels of 7.27, 7.28, 7.29 and 7.30 sequentially; • In my opinion, the government would prioritize stabilizing the economy and monetary easing policies over the task of defending its currency; • A weaker Yuan may be even preferable as a policy tool to support China’s export. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:30Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
3
USD/JPY punches above 146, BoJ inflation nextThe Japanese yen has posted significant losses on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 146.23 in the North American session, up 0.57% on the day. The US dollar has looked sharp and is within a whisker of pushing the yen below the 146 line, as was the case last week when the strong US dollar pushed the ailing yen to a nine-month low. The Japanese economy was once synonymous with deflation, but that has changed in the era of high global inflation. Japan's inflation is slightly above 3%, a level that other major central banks would take in a heartbeat. Still, inflation is relatively high by Japanese standards and both headline and core inflation have persistently been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Japan's inflation reports are carefully monitored as higher inflation has raised speculation that the BoJ will have to tighten its loose policy. The central bank has insisted that high inflation is transient, but the BoJ wouldn't be the first bank to make that claim and then backtrack with its tail between its legs. Remember the Fed and the ECB? Last week, July's CPI remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Core CPI dropped to 3.1% y/y, down from 3.3%. On Tuesday, Japan releases BoJ Core CPI, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, which is expected to dip to 2.7% in July, down from 3.0% in June. China's economic troubles have sent the Chinese yuan sharply lower, with the Chinese currency falling about 5% this year against the US dollar. A weak yuan makes Chinese exports more attractive, but this is at the expense of other exporters including Japan. As a result, there is pressure in Japan to lower the value of the yen in order to compete with Chinese exports. USD/JPY pushed above resistance at 145.54 earlier today. The next resistance line is 146.41 There is support at 144.51 and 143.64
by OANDA
Weaker China Data and Fed Interest Rate Rumors Trigger Oil PriceIntroduction: In recent weeks, the global oil market has experienced significant turbulence, with oil prices plummeting due to weaker-than-expected economic data from China and mounting rumors surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. As traders, it is crucial to exercise caution and carefully evaluate the potential risks associated with oil investing in light of these developments. 1. Weaker China Data 2. Fed Interest Rate Rumors Call-to-Action: Pause Oil Investing and Assess Risks Given the current market conditions and the uncertainties surrounding both China's economic performance and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, it is prudent for traders to exercise caution when considering oil investments. Here are a few steps to help you navigate this challenging environment: 1. Evaluate Your Risk Tolerance: Assess your risk appetite and consider the potential impact of further oil price drops on your investment portfolio. Diversify your holdings to mitigate potential losses and explore alternative investment opportunities that may be less susceptible to oil market volatility. 2. Stay Informed: Stay abreast of the latest developments in the Chinese economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. Monitor vital economic indicators, such as China's GDP growth, industrial production, retail sales figures, and any official statements or actions from the Federal Reserve. 3. Seek Professional Advice: Consult with financial advisors or industry experts who can provide personalized guidance tailored to your investment goals and risk tolerance. Their insights and expertise can help you make informed decisions in this uncertain market environment. Conclusion: The oil market is facing considerable volatility in light of weaker China data and the ongoing speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. As traders, it is crucial to exercise caution and carefully assess the potential risks associated with oil investing. By pausing and reevaluating your investment strategy, diversifying your portfolio, staying informed, and seeking professional advice, you can navigate this challenging environment more effectively and safeguard your investments.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Analyzing the Recent Bitcoin Dump - 2 Potential ScenariosIntroduction : Bitcoin experienced a sudden 9% drop from $27,712 to $25,166 in just 9 minutes following the news of China Evergrande's filing for US bankruptcy. The bankruptcy news came out around 11 pm UK time, and it seems to have had a cascading effect on liquidations, leading to this significant price movement. Two possible scenarios can be derived from the current market situation: Scenario 1 : Bitcoin has reached a new 2-month low of $25,166 and could rebound to new highs, marking the bottom. Scenario 2 (More Likely): Bitcoin may follow the SP500 and Nasdaq in a possible near market crash, mirroring recent market anxieties. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis (15min chart) : Utilizing a modified Fibonacci retracement tool, we can further analyze the Bitcoin price movement. By mapping from a high (1) of $28,706 to a low (0) of $25,166, we find the following significant levels: Stop Loss (1) : $28,706 Golden Zone (0.618 & 0.5): $27,298 & $26,877 Potential Entry Point (0.382): $26,463 – Currently being rejected from the golden zone. Take Profit 1 (0): $25,166 – Sell 40% of the position Take Profit 2 (-0.382): $23,931 – Sell 30% of the position Take Profit 3 (-0.618): $23,199 – Sell 20% of the position Take Profit 4 (-1.618): $20,338 – Unlikely , but sell the remaining 10% of the position in case Conclusion : As we navigate the turbulent market landscape, keeping an eye on key Fibonacci levels (and on the news...), and recognizing the potential connection between Bitcoin and broader market indices may provide invaluable insights. While the immediate future remains uncertain, careful planning around these critical points may help traders position themselves for the coming shifts.
Short
by Robin_Nakamoto
USD/CNH - LONG; China is dead!... and it is about to roll over. E.g. Sell it ALL!! This is the year (2023) to start the Long March (a familiar theme in Chinese history), to gain full stride, right into oblivion. Namely, the Chinese demographic implosion which has been gathering speed for quite a while now, will hit that country with undeniable force, essentially halving the population in less than the next decade and a half. This pretty much sums it up. (Why do you think they had the severe "Covid lock-downs", lasting for 3 years by now?! ...) Whether China will go down swinging is yet to be seen however, the outcome is a foregone conclusion, in any case. (Short of some oracle which could create 800 million Chinese, overnight, all between the ages of 21-35. China's current "R Factor" - reproductive rate - is half that of Covid and its varieties. - Just to illustrate the point.) The technical picture of this pair speaks for itself, as well, the pair landing/turning on massive support here. (Beijing couldn't allow the further appreciation of the Yuan without crushing an already imploding economy!) As for the monetary picture; China's >600% credit expansion in barely a decade is abjectly absurd, even by the recent, excessively loose global monetary standards. p.s. China had never had more than 70 consecutive expansion - or even stable - years in its 4000 year, illustrious history. The time has come, once again, with a well defined end in sight.
Long
by Nemo_Confidat
12
China Yuan Demise, China Demise, Ray Dalio CNY Reserve Currency? I remember a few months ago there was talk about the Chinese Yuan being the new reserve dollar? Ray Dalio? The China economy looks so far gone its not even a joke anymore Government forcing people to not sell assets including banks / institutions China stimulus debasing the currency parabolically China stock index failing to grow at all China no longer reporting jobless claims / unemployment figures (Source at the bottom) China DEBT to GDP ratio is also going parabolic chances are it will pass even the USA. Conclusion China and the Yuan is on its way out and the China age is looking more over than ever. What's the next reserve currency? Not the Yuan that's for damn sure. What's left? Russia with BRICS & Bitcoin is still there just hanging around. www.reuters.com
SSE:000001
by FederalXBT
Chinese Yuan Price Action Setting Up For a Potential CollapseWe have a huge Void below us and the Yuan has Rallied away from this Void before, but it appears to now be making a Lower High with Hidden Bearish Divergence on Both the RSI and MACD; If the Yuan Breaks Below the B point of this Potential Crab BAMM which also happens to be The Confirmation Line of what would then also be a 3 Falling Peaks Pattern, we will very likely then see Downwards Acceleration Towards the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Below to Complete the Harmonic Pattern
Short
by RizeSenpai
2
Fueling Opportunities: Oil Falls 1% amidst Strong USDToday, we dive into the recent developments that have caused oil prices to dip by 1%. Brace yourselves as we uncover the potential opportunities in this volatile landscape. With a strong US dollar and weak China economic data playing their part, now is the time to take action and seize the moment! The Mighty Dollar: China's Economic Woes: Call-to-Action: Seize the Moment, Buy into Oil! Now, more than ever, it's crucial to capitalize on the current market conditions. Here's your call to action: buy into oil! With prices experiencing a temporary dip, it's the perfect time to invest in this valuable commodity. Here are a few reasons why: Long-Term Growth Potential Diversification and Hedging Technological Advancements Conclusion: Traders, the time is ripe to take action and buy into oil! Embrace the excitement and potential of navigating the twists and turns of the market. Remember, fortune favors the bold, and by seizing the moment, you position yourself for success. So, gear up, stay informed, and move in this thrilling world of oil trading! Disclaimer: Trading involves risks, and it's essential to conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
FX:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
China A50 holds its ground despite weak sentimentAU wages came in weak, The RBA hinted that they think they're done tightening in the minutes, The PBOC cut rates (again) and a slew of data from China once again misses the mark. And all in a 30-minute period! I think we’re fast approaching a phase where bets will be on for another round of stimulus. The China A50 is holding its ground above 12,600 and AUD/USD has managed to hold above yesterday’s YTD low despite the weak data. There’s a floor under these prices, and any rumours of stimulus could potentially light the bullish match for these markets to bounce. Economic data from China continues to disappoint, with retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment data all missing the mark today. This follows on from disappointing trade figures for Q3 with imports and exports contracting at a much faster pace than feared, and loan demand falling to its lowest level since 2009. Yet somehow, the China A50 is still holding above the 12,400 base it formed in Q2 (despite negative headlines) before falling on news of stimulus. Are we about to witness a similar scenario? Perhaps. The PBOC announced that they have cut rates for a second month in three, a move not expected by the majority of economists. But it does suggest there is some panic, and with that comes hopes of more stimulus. If a market can’t go lower on bad news, it may not take much ‘good’ news to help it rally. A bullish hammer formed on the daily chart on Monday and prices are holding above its low despite the negative sentiment. We therefore see the potential for a rally to at least 13k, either on hopes of stimulus (or confirmation of it).
FOREXCOM:CHINA50Long
by CityIndex
CNH: Hedging Currency Risk amid Heightened UncertaintiesCME: USD/Offshore RMB ( CME:CNH1! ) Even though the Chinese Yuan is not a component in the US Dollar Index, Dollar-Yuan exchange rate generally tracks the dollar index. If dollar gains in value, most foreign currencies depreciate against it, yuan included. When dollar is weakened, the opposite holds true. Foreign currencies appreciate relative to dollar. However, this year the two trends diverged prominently. Dollar index was quoted 103.2 on Monday, down 0.8% year-to-date. Meanwhile, dollar/yuan rate moved up 5.2% to 7.26. A higher price quote means that yuan depreciated against the dollar. In conventional thinking, yuan should have risen when dollar declined. The reversal of the trend could signal a major technical breakout down the road. In the past ten years, the Yuan has been trading in the range of 6.0 and 7.3. looking back in early 2000s, the official exchange rate used to be set at a narrow band around 8.28. Exchange Rate Key Driver: Interest Rate Parity Let’s revisit a basic concept in economics. The interest rate parity (IRP) states that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. In plain English: An investor has the options of investing in either dollar or yuan. With higher interest rates, dollar asset will produce a higher return. To make yuan more attractive, the investor would need to get more yuan per dollar. Therefore, yuan will depreciate. This is the logic behind the IRP. It is called the Law of One Price. Since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in March 2022, the Fed Funds rate has risen 525 basis points in the following 17 months. At the same time, the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates by 15 basis points, from 3.70% to 3.55%. • The US-China interest rate spread has widened by 540 basis points. • If the investor held dollar denominated asset, his return would be 7.65% higher than someone holding the same asset denominated in yuan (=5.40% x (17/12) years). • Meanwhile, the exchange rate went from 6.39 to 7.26, a 12.0% Yuan depreciation. In this example, the IRP explains 64% of the total variation of Dollar/Yuan exchange rate. It is remarkable that fundamental economic theory works so well in the real world. Relative Stock Market Performance Another key factor driving capital flows in and out of China is the performance of its stock market relative to that of the global market. China’s stock market had a good start this year. The hope of economic recovery pushed the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index up by 9%. However, economic data deteriorated markedly in the second quarter, which helped erase most of the gain. • As of Monday, the SSE produced a meager 1.8% return YTD. • For a comparison, the S&P was up 15.8% while the Nasdaq gained 37.8% YTD. Relative Strength in the Economy While interest rate spread and stock market performance drive the exchange rate trend in the short- to medium-term, the long-term value of one country’s currency is determined by the strength of its economy. The US economy has so far managed to avoid a hard landing: • Solid job market (unemployment rate below 4%); • Strong GDP growth (the economy expanded from Q1 to Q2); • Inflation getting under control (headline CPI around 3%); • A banking crisis is contained (only a handful of bank failures); • The debt ceiling crisis is resolved (new bill suspected the debt ceiling until 2025). This year, China’s economic engine appeared to have lost steam. • GDP growth slowed dramatically after a brief spike in Q1; • Export declined by double digits; • A gigantic housing market crisis is brewing to the boiling point; • Debt crisis with provincial and local governments, many are technically bankrupt; • High unemployment rates (youth unemployment exceeding 20%); • Deflation discourages business activities and put further pressure on the economy. Could the second largest economy in the world weather all the headwinds? This heightened risk profile warrants the need to proactively deploy risk management strategies. Hedging for Currency Exposure Amid Rising Risk Outlooks US-China relations remains the top geopolitical risk amid heightened uncertainties. In recent years, the relations have hit the lowest point since President Richard Nixon visited China in 1972. While China now accounts for a smaller share of the US international trade, in 2022, both U.S. exports to China and imports from China continued to grow, according to the Bank of International Settlement data. • U.S. exports totaled $153.8bn, an increase of 1.6% ($2.4bn) from 2021; • U.S. imports from China totaled $536.8bn, an increase of 6.3% ($31.8bn); • And the trade deficit with China was $382.9bn, an increase of 8.3% of ($29.4bn). U.S. importers, exporters, and US companies operating in China all face significant risks when the exchange rate is so volatile. Some of the cost may be in one currency, while the revenue is in another. Hedging net currency exposure is key to locking in profit. Where is the Dollar/Yuan Exchange Rate Heading? In the previous sections, I highlighted the key drivers in the US/China currency exchange rate: relative interest rates; relative stock market performance; relative economic strength; and the state of the US-China relations. If things are moving unfavorably for China, I could see the yuan breaking out of the recent range and going above 7.50. There are a lot of moving parts affecting the outcome. CME Offshore RMB (CNH) is a futures contract on the Dollar/Yuan exchange rate. It has a notional value of $100,000 and is quoted as the number of Yuan per $1. In a hypothetical case, let’s imagine that a commercial firm expects to receive 10 million yuan in six months. Should the exchange rate go from 7.26 to 7.60, the expected receipt in dollar terms would decline from $1.38M to $1.31M, down $70K or -4.7%. The firm could hedge this exposure by buying 14 CNH contracts. The aggregate notional value is $1.4 million, matching over 10 million yuan at current market price. When yuan depreciates, futures price would go up as each dollar is getting more yuan. Therefore, when the firm loses money in business operation due to yuan depreciation, currency futures hedging would compensate for the losses. Holding 1 CNH contract requires $21100 in minimum margin. If the exchange rate moves by 1 tick, or $0.0001, the futures account would gain or lose 10 Yuan. A smaller firm could consider Micro RMB futures (MNH). It is 1/10 of the standard size CNH contract with a $10K notional. Margin requirement is 1/10 of the original, at $2110. Happy Trading! Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:CNH1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
MACRO MONDAY 7 - CHINA DEFLATIONMacro Monday (7) - Advance Release China Inflation Rate – $CNIRRY China entered into deflationary territory in July 2023 and this is being shared by many with an extremely negative outlook for markets. I believe this chart outlines a very different perspective that leans more neutral than cautionary whilst also providing a more usable framework in the event of a recession scenario playing out. 🔴The last 3 global recessions commenced during China's peak inflationary periods, not during deflationary periods. This is the first clear indication from the chart (red circles). 🔵The last 3 periods of deflation in China signaled the forming of a market bottom in 2000 (over 14 months), thee market bottom in 2008 and resulted in positive S&P500 price action in 2020 (blue areas). Two out of three times China Deflation has been immediately positive for markets. ⚠️The most contentious period of deflation can be assigned to the 2000 Dot Com crash. The commencement of this 14 month period of deflation from October 2001 did not immediately mark the bottom. Instead the S&P500 made a further c.35% decline to gradually form its bottom over those 14 months ending in December 2002. If this was to repeat we could be looking at Sept 2024 as a possible market bottom and a 35% decline would be $2.9k for the S&P....👀 This scenario is worthy of consideration especially factoring in the comparisons of the 2023 AI boom to the 2000 internet boom. As we enter a new technological epoch with the likes of Augmented Reality, Cryptocurrencies and AI, are we getting ahead of ourselves again? Do these technologies need a little more time to mature much like the internet? Are we overextended like we were in 2000? Its hard to answer no to any of these questions but against the backdrop of record levels of QE and Fiscal Deficit we have to keep an open mind as we froth in record levels of liquidity. What is useful about this chart is that if a 2000 Dot Com crash scenario was to play out from hereon, we could use China’s move back into inflationary territory (above 0% line) as a possible confirmation of a market bottom/reversal as was the case in Dec 2002. What day is it? 🤣🤣🤣 I released this early brief Macro Monday as I seen this topic repeatedly in my feed today and wanted to share the perspective as soon as possible. There is a strong possibility of a 2nd alternative Macro Monday Chart on Monday 14th. Hope to see you there! As always I hope the chart offers perspective and utility PUKA
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by PukaCharts
LI Auto Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold LI when they reduced the delivery outlook: Or on this Earnings Release: Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LI Auto prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2024-5-17, for a premium of approximately $0.60. I think there is still some upside momentum left, followed by a big selloff by the end of the year. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:LIShort
by TopgOptions
$CNIRYY - Deflationary CPI- While ECONOMICS:USIRYY numbers remain inflationary, having the latest increase to 3.2% on August 10th, on the other side of the World from the second Global Superpower, ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came Deflationary at negative 0.3% on 9'th of August, just a day prior to numbers of ECONOMICS:USIRYY . Note that The Head of Federal Reserve, our pal Jerome Powell, stated that Feds do not see Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY coming down to their norm target of 2% CPI by 2025. Jerome still believes on a 'Soft Landing'.. How about another Joke, Powell !?
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
JD is it a safe short or an early reversal?JD on the 1H chart has been in a solid downtrend worthy of shorting. However, the zero-lag MACD shows a line cross under the histogram and a red to green there. The signal has curled. This looks like subtle divergence. Price is in the area of the mean anchored black VWAP lines. The mass index indicator is double tapping the reversal zone. So, what you think? Is there more downside or instead is JD going to bounce and move up? Please offer your comment !
NASDAQ:JDLong
by AwesomeAvani