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Industrial metals continue to face headwinds as Chinese data disIndustrial metals were the worst performing commodity sector last month and were down 2.7%1. Over the last six months, the sector is down 15.2% and has created the biggest drag on the overall performance of commodities. China's real estate sector, once the engine of its economy, is now teetering on the edge of crisis because of excessive borrowing, overbuilding, and a housing slowdown. The government's crackdown on risky practices and sudden intervention in 2020 to prevent a housing bubble have led to over 50 Chinese developers defaulting or failing to make debt payments in the last three years. The consequences include reduced consumer spending due to falling housing prices, disappearing jobs tied to housing, and decreased business confidence. While policymakers have taken modest steps to address the situation, the real estate turmoil has spread to financial institutions and the broader economy, prompting concerns of a larger crisis. A build-up in industrial metal inventories over the last 3 months is consistent with market expectations of ample supply of the metals for the rest of the year, given relatively modest demand. Zinc inventory is up 96% while lead inventory is up 85% compared to 3 months ago. This is clearly weighing on sentiment towards industrial metals. Copper (COMEX) was down 2.8%1, and aluminium down 2.8%1. The only bright spot in the basket was lead, which was up 3.7% last month. Speculative positioning in COMEX copper has been oscillating between positive and negative territories in recent months and entered negative territory again last month after briefly becoming positive2. COMEX copper inventory is up around 46% compared to 3 months ago. And although copper held in COMEX is one of the smaller stores of the metal, when combining London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX, copper inventory is still 27% above where it was 3 months ago. Nickel was down 5.7% last month1. Although nickel is widely known for its use in electric vehicle batteries, a growing market, it still draws around two-thirds of its overall demand from the production of stainless steel. China's steel market has been facing pressure in August due to continued high steel production despite sluggish end-user demand. Blast furnace utilization rates have risen, but some local mills in key steelmaking provinces like Hebei and Jiangsu have not received official communication about output reductions. Uncertainty surrounds the extent of China's steel output cuts for the rest of the year, with expectations of smaller scale cuts targeting environmentally sensitive regions. Rising steel inventories are attributed to robust production and weak demand. Despite potential production cuts, market sentiment remains cautious due to these challenges, and steel prices have declined. This, in turn, is weighing on nickel. Source: 1 Bloomberg as of 21 July 2023 to 21 August 2023 2 Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as of 15 August 2023 3 change in inventory over the past 3 months by United States Department of Agriculture This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
COMEX:HG1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
China downturn bet and some catalystsFundamentals AUD The slowdown of the Chinese economy drags down Australia which heavily exports to China, thus bearish sentiments in the AUD. Today economic data on China is mixed: even though there were some improvements in Manufacturing PMI, the markets couldn't hold gains in the next few hours. Such minor improvements are just a drop in the sea of current broader structural deficiencies. In addition, yesterday Australia posted weak data on Building Approvals and Construction Work Done, which are quite a catalyst for AUD weakness. USD: "Higher rates for longer" narrative. Although the employment data is expected to come out at a decline. So In case the expectations are missed, positions should be managed in a risk-averse manner. Technical & other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: Aug lows Risk: 0.52%
Short
by Cherry94
Hyperinflation China (CNY) + Japan (JPY) First to Go! Chinese real-estate has collapsed China refuses to update new unemployment metrics (like they've ever told the truth) China BOC keeps printing to backstop this (parabolic m3/m2) China forcing peoples money trapped in this death spiral Japan Real estate is also dead Japan stocks / Gasoline is going parabolic due to the start of hyperinflation not a booming economy Japan's BOJ also can't stop printing! what could go wrong? I've made post about this months ago with warning signs about Japan's stock market going parabolic without anything going on. This is text book Weimar Germany 1923, why the Chinese stocks going down though? simple the capital is trying everything to exit into US markets. The CCP has printed so much money and you know what people did with it? they sold it for US Dollars and used it overseas because nobody is buying the bs that China is a booming / powerful economy its completely collapsing you love to see it!. Japan? their currency is done. Both these countries have debt to GDP past the point of no return. Both these countries have PPI / CPI going parabolic past the point of no return. People have started to panic in China and it will follow in Japan followed by a complete meltdown, but the trick here is there's a chance this will not take out the US markets ironically. All of this capital will flow back into the USA. The final take away from this is the US markets see's strength not from "Real growth" but from countries where people have no option to diverse and enter the US market. "Forecasters recession this recession that" it never equals what the markets actually do.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
3
Copper - Did Social Media Tell You To Long The CCP Again?They call copper "Doctor Copper" because it's said to forecast the overall world economic conditions on account of being tightly wed to manufacturing. Well, what people are really yammering about with that over the last 20 years is whether or not the Chinese Communist Party is healthy, and the world by proxy being healthy because it tied itself to the most heinous regime in history, the one responsible for the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the accompanying organ harvesting and genocide. Unfortunately for all the blind bulls, the early 2021-2022 price action was a pretty good indication of a top, and that top is really confirmed by the fact that since October of '22, this bounce has been pretty weak, and starting this month, with all the drama surrounding the slow collapse of the Chinese economy, took out the previous two months' lows. Monthly shows you that August price action took both the July and June lows. Like, that's not the kind of "signal" you want to see to get long for a new all time high. When something is retracing to take out major highs, you want to see lows rarely violated with something of a freight train towards the old highs. Weekly bars show us something of a subtle pattern where it looks like it's just taken some lows and is consolidating and continually flirting with going back up. But in reality the market makers are, most likely, just selling more under the previous $4.00 area. And if that's really true, it means another gap down is imminent, especially after an entire quarter of ranging. If you ask me, the first area that you can look for a long that is more than a scalp on copper is under $2.8, which is a critical pivot from September. And a more likely target in the next 12 months is the $2.00 mark, which was barely swept out in the COVID drama. The reality is, my friends, the Chinese Communist Party is going to fall overnight in our lifetimes. Not five or ten years from now. But very shortly, and everything is going to change. Whether that is caused by Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP to protect himself and China from being taken over by the International Rules Based Order as it uses Taiwan as a soft proxy war, or because the whole world collapses under the results of the persecution of Falun Dafa, since everyone's been going to Shanghai to worship the toads and the Devil Red to get financial benefits. This is the danger. The danger is imminent. But copper trades painfully slowly, so if you want to do this you have to have long duration, ignore the noise, and be willing to suffer some drawdown. China under the CCP is never going to recover. Things are never going to be okay ever again. Things will be okay once mankind returns to tradition. But there won't be an international stock market like this anymore that day.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by LordWrymouth
Australian dollar edges up ahead of inflation reportThe Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6437, up 0.12% on the day. China's economic slowdown is bad news for the Australian economy, which counts China as its biggest export market. China's imports have been falling and as a result, commodity prices have dropped, hurting Australia's exports of iron ore and gold to China. China continues to record weak economic numbers and this will likely be reflected in lower GDP releases, although economic growth is above 5%. The Australian dollar is sensitive to China's economic strength and has declined by around 3% in the third quarter. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on September 5th and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.10% for a second straight month. There are clear signs of the economy cooling, including inflation and wage growth easing and a slight rise in unemployment. The RBA would like to extend the pause in rate hikes, with an eye on lowering rates sometime in 2024. All eyes will be on Australia's July inflation report which will be released on Wednesday. Inflation has been falling, albeit slowly. In June, inflation fell from 5.5% to 5.4% and the consensus estimate for July is 5.2%. If inflation drops to 5.2% or lower, it should cement a RBA pause in September. A higher rate than 5.2% won't necessarily mean a rate hike, but it would likely lower the odds of a pause, which are currently around 90%. In the US, it is a busy Tuesday with consumer confidence and employment releases. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index has been on the rise and soared to 117.0 in July, up from 110.1 in June. The estimate for August is 116.0 points. JOLTS Job Openings is projected to decelerate for a second straight month in July, from 9.58 million to 9.46 million. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6424 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6360 There is resistance at 0.6470 and 0.6531
by OANDA
Shanghai Stock Market (SSE Composite Index): A Closer LookThe Shanghai Stock Market is like a financial puzzle, and right now, it's showing us some interesting moves. First, the rise in the 10-year yield from 3-year lows suggests that there might be changing expectations about economic growth, inflation, or monetary policy. This could be due to a variety of factors such as improved economic prospects, inflation concerns, or changes in the global interest rate environment. The central bank also did something important by closing a 5-billion yuan money deal. It's like they're keeping a watchful eye on how money is moving around. On top of that, they pumped a massive 385 billion yuan into the system, which can make things more exciting. Now, let's talk about Ichimoku Cloud analysis. It's like a weather forecast for the stock market. Right now, it's showing that the market might be heading up, which is a positive sign. However, the cloud isn't very thick. This means we should be a bit cautious. There's another important sign on this chart. Tenkan points up, suggesting the market might go up soon, even though it's under Kijun resistance line. It's a bit like seeing a green light at an intersection, even if the other light is still red. So, as we decode these numbers and signals, it's clear that the Shanghai Stock Market is in a state of flux, with various factors at play. Investors will need to stay vigilant, considering both the data and the bigger economic picture to make informed decisions in the coming year.
SSE:000001
by TheAltcoinBuff
China50 forming a bottom?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12555 (stop at 12435) Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Previous resistance at 12530 now becomes support. 12531 has been pivotal. Support is located at 12530 and should stem dips to this area. Buying posted in Asia. Our profit targets will be 12855 and 12935 Resistance: 12700 / 12850 / 13000 Support: 12600 / 12530 / 12450 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
VANTAGE:CHINA50Long
by VantageMarkets
Coal Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Neutral-Bullish AccumulationNewcastle Thermal Coal Futures breaking out of short-term downtrend + Neutral-Bullish Accumulation around 78.6% Fib Retracement. Still within larger downtrend after steep sell-off through later half of 2022 into 2023. (Coal) embers likely re-igniting due to recent China stimulus measures & other macro-economic influences, TBC. Highlighted preliminary Trading Range 174.05-129. On watch for further price action development &/or break out of range in either direction. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers. Futures: ICEEUR:NCF1! ICEEUR:NCF2! ASX: ASX:WHC ASX:NHC ASX:YAL ASX:SMR ASX:TER
ICEEUR:NCF2!
by BlueHatInvestor
Iron Ore Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Coiling like a Steel RollIron Ore Futures coiling like a steel roll in a series of Lower Highs & Higher Lows since October 2022. Break above 116.60 = Bullish momentum towards 134.85 (38.2% Fib Retracement) Break below 99.40 = Bearish momentum towards 77.60 (78.6% Fib Extension) Seasonality typically favours the Bulls running strong into end of year - we'll see if it still rings true this year, given China's current economic woes.. Boost/Follow appreciated. Futures: SGX:FEF1! SGX:FEF2! COMEX:TIO1! COMEX:TIO2! ASX: ASX:BHP ASX:RIO ASX:FMG ASX:MIN ASX:CIA NYSE: NYSE:VALE
SGX:FEF2!Long
by BlueHatInvestor
SHCOMP ~ Snapshot TA / Bearish H&S Development (TBC) / WeeklyChina's Economy is dangerously on the ropes...things have gotten so bad, CCP had to make an announcement on a Sunday night (AEST/UC+10) that they're going to intervene in their domestic market with a raft of "measures" in hopes of boosting market confidence: - Halve stamp duty on stock trading - Tighten pace of IPO listings - Cut margin financing requirements - Restrict listed companies' refinancing - Restrict share reductions by major shareholders My gut instinct tells me this will be a financial disaster...luckily we've got charts to tell us what's really going on. Taking a (Snapshot TA) look, SSE:000001 appears to be developing a Bearish H&S. Extrapolating Head-to-Neckline indicates price could be heading towards a pretty interesting Confluence Zone : - Gap fill (weekly) - Retrace to previous 2014 break-out (aka Return to Scene of Crime) - Key demand/support zone - Multi-decade trend line Note: While chart patterns (ie H&S) are great at spotting trends, etc. it's important to focus on associated demand/supply zones & how price interacts with key levels to determine when & where to scale in/out of positions. All (technical) signs point to SHCOMP in process of capitulating...problem with Govt interventions is it becomes a momentum play in either direction & technicals take a back seat. We'll just have to take note of critical levels, set alerts & wait for the dust to settle.. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) CFD/INDEX: PEPPERSTONE:CN50 PEPPERSTONE:HK50 US: NASDAQ:AIA AMEX:FXI AMEX:EEM AMEX:CQQQ AMEX:KWEB ASX: ASX:IAA ASX:IZZ ASX:IEM ASX:CNEW ASX:ASIA
SSE:000001
by BlueHatInvestor
Tesla - What To Expect Until September?I heard something rather enlightening on Twitter recently, and it was someone who quoted some sort of analyst as pointing out "Tesla is its own market." I think that's really correct, and really apt, especially in light of a recent analysis of the new JPM collar that dropped on Friday, where I anticipate a very violent and very major drop in the markets until Q3. SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' The point is that Tesla can (and has; and will) go up or go down regardless of what the indexes are doing This call is also a continuation of a very successful call I had on Tesla posted in February. Things took several months to pan out to the downside and then to the upside, but everything came to fruition: Tesla - $250 Is Coming... Don't Lose Your Legs In the Bear Trap The key thing with Tesla, especially for the long term holders who think this company has a $3 trillion valuation in it like Apple does, is the Q4 dump to almost exactly $100 was anything but bullish. But fortunately, this "bearishness" has manifested in a significant bounce, and, in my opinion, the Party hasn't yet stopped here. Speaking of "The Party," you have to be very careful with Tesla because Elon Musk decided to root a huge bulk of his company's production with a Gigafactory in Shanghai-Babylon. This leaves this company open to exceptionally enormous geopolitical and fundamental risks as President Xi Jinping faces the possibility of having to dump the Chinese Communist Party overnight, any night, because of the battle against both the remnants of the Jiang Zemin faction inside China and the "International Rules Based Order" that's rooted itself in Taiwan. To put it plainly, the IRBO wants to take over China using someone it has groomed from The Republic when the CCP falls, with the idea being to take down Xi with the Party. The "Jiang Faction" is significant because it's the architect and conductor of the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners. The sins are grave to the extreme and can (and will) be weaponized to put an end to the threats to Cathay. With Tesla, I believe it's going to dump, and with some fury. And during the process, you'll hear a lot of FUD about blah blah fundamentals this, blah blah "can you believe how this ponzi is dumping people who bought $250 will be generational bagholders" that on social media. You need to ignore all of that, because the day Tesla breaks $100 is the day Tesla is finished. Moreover, Tesla is about to give you a buying opportunity in the $180 range. Remember that whole adage about "buy the dip"? You're about to get the opportunity, again, but it won't feel very good because things will be scary and it will seem like everything is going to zero, and tomorrow. Seriously, read the JPM collar post above. Once the dust has settled, if the April lows remain intact, then the next target is the equal highs printed in July to September before the enormous sell off, amounting to nearly another two bagger. But perhaps what Tesla really is aiming for is something Musk can get high on. If by early September you see the price bouncing and try to short, it'll more or less turn out as bad as it did for NVDIA bears. No matter how you complain about P/E ratios and market cap and comparisons to Ford and Toyota, the reality is, this is what a bearish market structure actually looks like in action. The banks sell on red and buy on green. You buy on green and sell on red. It's a painful reality, isn't it?
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by LordWrymouth
6
NZD/USD climbs ahead of retail salesThe New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5959, up 0.55%. On the data calendar, New Zealand retail sales are expected to decline by 2.6% q/q in the second quarter, compared to -1.4% in Q1. The New Zealand dollar has gone on a dreadful slide since mid-July, falling as much as 500 basis points during that spell. The current downswing has been driven by weak global demand and jitters over China's economy, which is showing alarming signs of deterioration. Chinese releases have been pointing downward recently. Exports and imports have fallen, manufacturing activity is weak and the world's second-largest economy is experiencing deflation. Last week, Evergrande, a huge Chinese property developer, filed for bankruptcy in the United States, raising fears of contagion to other parts of the economy. It wasn't long ago that the Chinese 'miracle' was being touted as an economic powerhouse on the global stage, but now the world's second-largest economy is in deep trouble and is dragging down global growth. An interesting silver lining is that deflation in China could help lower inflation worldwide, which would be good news for the Fed, ECB and other central banks that are battling to push inflation lower. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has responded in recent days to the economic slowdown with some cuts to lending rates, but surprisingly, has not trimmed the five-year loan prime rate, which has a major impact on mortgages. The PBOC's lukewarm move to the economic crisis could mean China's economy will continue to sputter, and that is bad news for the New Zealand dollar, as China is by far New Zealand's largest trading partner. If Chinese releases continue to head lower, we can expect the New Zealand dollar to continue losing ground. NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.5941 and is putting pressure on resistance at 0.5978 There is support at 0.5885 and close by at 0.5848
by OANDA
BABA BULLISH CONTINUATIONBABA is on a good recovery streak with, steady gain and consolidation, following a solid support line since October 22'. China's economy and development are almost recovered from the horrible decline during the multiple lockdowns and manufacturing shutdowns. The gain/consolidation we are witnessing in the last several months is having an amplitude of 10-15$ which is likely to repeat unless something dramatic happens. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:BABALong
by legacyFXofficial
How is Your Trading This Year?30Y Micro Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ), Micro Nasdaq ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ), Chinese Yuan ( CME:CNH1! ), Live Cattle ( CME:LE1! ) On January 2nd, I published an idea titled “Year of the Rabbit: ‘Short-tailed’ Trading”. My outlook for the new year was: “In the new year, uncertainties will remain the key price drivers of global stock markets: central bank policy, inflation, economic growth, geopolitical crisis, and China reopening. Depending on the specific outcome, the impact of a given factor could range from very positive to very negative, and anything in between.” Eight months into 2023, we have witnessed some extraordinary events playing out: • US regional bank crisis shocked the global financial markets. However, swift government actions helped starve off a chain reaction that could trigger systemic risk; • Decades-high US inflation has quickly come down. Fed tightening policy does work, even though it usually has a 10-month lag; • The US debt ceiling has found a resolution. Instead of raising the debt limit, Congress suspected it for two years. In a matter of two months, the national debt has increased by $1.3 trillion. This helped push Fitch to downgrade the US sovereignty rating; • China reopened after three years of Zero-Covid policy. While the economy rebounded in Q1, it quickly deteriorated in Q2. The economic engine seems to lose steam quickly. Trading Strategies Revisited Under these macro backdrops, it’s a good time to revisit some of my own trade ideas. I write on TradingView weekly and have published 31 ideas so far in 2023. Of these ideas, TradingView selected 13 to be featured on “Editors’ Picks”. Below are recaps of four ideas published in July and August. July 10th: Housing Cost Jumps Amid Falling Inflation Trade Idea: Long CBOT 30-Year Micro Yield Futures ($30Y) My theory: • The decline in home sales countered the effect of rising funding cost, putting the mortgage rates in sideway moves. • Now that the housing market recovers, 30-year Fixed could be on the way up. • July FOMC meeting could provide a boost if the Fed raises 25 bp as as indicated by the Fed Watch tool? . Hypothetical Result for Illustration Purpose Only: • Changes in market prices: August contract (30YQ3) was quoted 4.012 on July 7th and 4.381 on August 18th, an increase of 369 points; • Gain (Loss): Each point is worth $1. Therefore, 1 long 30YQ3 would gain $369; • Return: Using the $290 margin as cost base, this trade would have a return of 127%. Where are we now? It’s my long-held belief that the negative yield curve environment would reverse back to normal. Yield spread is finally narrowing. 30Y yield is now higher than 10Y yield. July 24th: Implications of Nasdaq 100 Rebalancing Trade Idea: Spread trade – Buy S&P Technology Select Sector Futures ($XAK) and Sell Micro Nasdaq 100 Futures ($MNQ) My theory: • The Nasdaq 100 rebalancing is a unique issue with the Nasdaq 100 index. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of these companies and has no impact on other Tech sector stock indexes which also include the same component companies; • In the long run, Nasdaq 100 rebalance will dilute the impact of the largest stocks. Strong growth in Big Tech will be fully represented in XAK but capped in MNQ. Hypothetical Result for Illustration Purpose Only: • Market prices: MNQ and XAK were quoted 1,786.60 and 15,555 respectively on July 21st. On August 18th, they were settled on 1,665.20 and 14,744, respectively. • Trade setup: 1 XAK - 6 MNQ = (1 * 1786.6 * 100) - (6 * 15555 * 2) = 8,000 • Initial margins: 9500 + 1680 * 6 = $19,580 • New Spread value = (1 * 1665.2 * 100) - (6 * 14744 * 2) = 10,408 • Gain (Loss):10,408 – 8,000 = $2,408; • Return: Using the $19,580 margin as cost base, this trade would have a return of 12%. Where are we now? As expected, XAK held up better than MNQ even though both were trending down. August 7th: What Disinflation: Beef Price Went Up 64% in 5 Years Trade Idea: Short Cattle-Hog Spread – Sell Live Cattle ( NASDAQ:LE ) and Buy Lean Hog ( NYSE:HE ) My theory: • In my opinion, the cost factor pushing pork prices up in the short run is greater than the supply-demand force that drives up beef prices in the long run. • There may be room to short the cattle-hog spread, until pork prices stabilize in a new equilibrium. Hypothetical Result for Illustration Purpose Only: • Market prices: LE and HE were quoted 183.10 and 83.25 respectively on August 4th. The cattle-hog spread was 99.85; On August 18th, the new spread was 96.41 (LE 178.53 vs. HE 82.13) • Gain (Loss): The cattle-hog spread was narrowed by 3.44. Since we short the spread, we would gain $1,378 (=3.44 x 400); • Return: Using the $3,200 margin as cost base, this trade would have a return of 43%. Where are we now? Cattle futures were down 2.5% while hog lost 1.4%, which helped narrow the spread. August 14th: CNH – Hedging Currency Risks Trade Idea: Long USD/Offshore RMB Futures ( FWB:CNH ) My theory: • The key drivers in the US/China currency exchange rate: relative interest rates; relative stock market performance; relative economic strength; and the dynamics of the US-China relations. • Yuan could break out of the recent range with USDCNH going above 7.50, if there are more headwinds ahead Hypothetical Result for Illustration Purpose Only: • Market prices: September contract (CNHU3) was quoted 7.2646 on August 11th and 7.2921 on August 18th, an increase of 275 points; • Gain (Loss): Each point is worth 10 yuan. The gain would be 2750 yuan, or $377 at current market price; • Return: Using the $21,100 margin as cost base, this trade would have a return of 1.8%. Where are we now? • Since I published this idea a week ago, the CNH exchange rate broke critical support levels of 7.27, 7.28, 7.29 and 7.30 sequentially; • In my opinion, the government would prioritize stabilizing the economy and monetary easing policies over the task of defending its currency; • A weaker Yuan may be even preferable as a policy tool to support China’s export. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:30Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
3
USD/JPY punches above 146, BoJ inflation nextThe Japanese yen has posted significant losses on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 146.23 in the North American session, up 0.57% on the day. The US dollar has looked sharp and is within a whisker of pushing the yen below the 146 line, as was the case last week when the strong US dollar pushed the ailing yen to a nine-month low. The Japanese economy was once synonymous with deflation, but that has changed in the era of high global inflation. Japan's inflation is slightly above 3%, a level that other major central banks would take in a heartbeat. Still, inflation is relatively high by Japanese standards and both headline and core inflation have persistently been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Japan's inflation reports are carefully monitored as higher inflation has raised speculation that the BoJ will have to tighten its loose policy. The central bank has insisted that high inflation is transient, but the BoJ wouldn't be the first bank to make that claim and then backtrack with its tail between its legs. Remember the Fed and the ECB? Last week, July's CPI remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Core CPI dropped to 3.1% y/y, down from 3.3%. On Tuesday, Japan releases BoJ Core CPI, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, which is expected to dip to 2.7% in July, down from 3.0% in June. China's economic troubles have sent the Chinese yuan sharply lower, with the Chinese currency falling about 5% this year against the US dollar. A weak yuan makes Chinese exports more attractive, but this is at the expense of other exporters including Japan. As a result, there is pressure in Japan to lower the value of the yen in order to compete with Chinese exports. USD/JPY pushed above resistance at 145.54 earlier today. The next resistance line is 146.41 There is support at 144.51 and 143.64
by OANDA
Weaker China Data and Fed Interest Rate Rumors Trigger Oil PriceIntroduction: In recent weeks, the global oil market has experienced significant turbulence, with oil prices plummeting due to weaker-than-expected economic data from China and mounting rumors surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. As traders, it is crucial to exercise caution and carefully evaluate the potential risks associated with oil investing in light of these developments. 1. Weaker China Data 2. Fed Interest Rate Rumors Call-to-Action: Pause Oil Investing and Assess Risks Given the current market conditions and the uncertainties surrounding both China's economic performance and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, it is prudent for traders to exercise caution when considering oil investments. Here are a few steps to help you navigate this challenging environment: 1. Evaluate Your Risk Tolerance: Assess your risk appetite and consider the potential impact of further oil price drops on your investment portfolio. Diversify your holdings to mitigate potential losses and explore alternative investment opportunities that may be less susceptible to oil market volatility. 2. Stay Informed: Stay abreast of the latest developments in the Chinese economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. Monitor vital economic indicators, such as China's GDP growth, industrial production, retail sales figures, and any official statements or actions from the Federal Reserve. 3. Seek Professional Advice: Consult with financial advisors or industry experts who can provide personalized guidance tailored to your investment goals and risk tolerance. Their insights and expertise can help you make informed decisions in this uncertain market environment. Conclusion: The oil market is facing considerable volatility in light of weaker China data and the ongoing speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. As traders, it is crucial to exercise caution and carefully assess the potential risks associated with oil investing. By pausing and reevaluating your investment strategy, diversifying your portfolio, staying informed, and seeking professional advice, you can navigate this challenging environment more effectively and safeguard your investments.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Analyzing the Recent Bitcoin Dump - 2 Potential ScenariosIntroduction : Bitcoin experienced a sudden 9% drop from $27,712 to $25,166 in just 9 minutes following the news of China Evergrande's filing for US bankruptcy. The bankruptcy news came out around 11 pm UK time, and it seems to have had a cascading effect on liquidations, leading to this significant price movement. Two possible scenarios can be derived from the current market situation: Scenario 1 : Bitcoin has reached a new 2-month low of $25,166 and could rebound to new highs, marking the bottom. Scenario 2 (More Likely): Bitcoin may follow the SP500 and Nasdaq in a possible near market crash, mirroring recent market anxieties. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis (15min chart) : Utilizing a modified Fibonacci retracement tool, we can further analyze the Bitcoin price movement. By mapping from a high (1) of $28,706 to a low (0) of $25,166, we find the following significant levels: Stop Loss (1) : $28,706 Golden Zone (0.618 & 0.5): $27,298 & $26,877 Potential Entry Point (0.382): $26,463 – Currently being rejected from the golden zone. Take Profit 1 (0): $25,166 – Sell 40% of the position Take Profit 2 (-0.382): $23,931 – Sell 30% of the position Take Profit 3 (-0.618): $23,199 – Sell 20% of the position Take Profit 4 (-1.618): $20,338 – Unlikely , but sell the remaining 10% of the position in case Conclusion : As we navigate the turbulent market landscape, keeping an eye on key Fibonacci levels (and on the news...), and recognizing the potential connection between Bitcoin and broader market indices may provide invaluable insights. While the immediate future remains uncertain, careful planning around these critical points may help traders position themselves for the coming shifts.
Short
by Robin_Nakamoto
USD/CNH - LONG; China is dead!... and it is about to roll over. E.g. Sell it ALL!! This is the year (2023) to start the Long March (a familiar theme in Chinese history), to gain full stride, right into oblivion. Namely, the Chinese demographic implosion which has been gathering speed for quite a while now, will hit that country with undeniable force, essentially halving the population in less than the next decade and a half. This pretty much sums it up. (Why do you think they had the severe "Covid lock-downs", lasting for 3 years by now?! ...) Whether China will go down swinging is yet to be seen however, the outcome is a foregone conclusion, in any case. (Short of some oracle which could create 800 million Chinese, overnight, all between the ages of 21-35. China's current "R Factor" - reproductive rate - is half that of Covid and its varieties. - Just to illustrate the point.) The technical picture of this pair speaks for itself, as well, the pair landing/turning on massive support here. (Beijing couldn't allow the further appreciation of the Yuan without crushing an already imploding economy!) As for the monetary picture; China's >600% credit expansion in barely a decade is abjectly absurd, even by the recent, excessively loose global monetary standards. p.s. China had never had more than 70 consecutive expansion - or even stable - years in its 4000 year, illustrious history. The time has come, once again, with a well defined end in sight.
Long
by Nemo_Confidat
12
China Yuan Demise, China Demise, Ray Dalio CNY Reserve Currency? I remember a few months ago there was talk about the Chinese Yuan being the new reserve dollar? Ray Dalio? The China economy looks so far gone its not even a joke anymore Government forcing people to not sell assets including banks / institutions China stimulus debasing the currency parabolically China stock index failing to grow at all China no longer reporting jobless claims / unemployment figures (Source at the bottom) China DEBT to GDP ratio is also going parabolic chances are it will pass even the USA. Conclusion China and the Yuan is on its way out and the China age is looking more over than ever. What's the next reserve currency? Not the Yuan that's for damn sure. What's left? Russia with BRICS & Bitcoin is still there just hanging around. www.reuters.com
SSE:000001
by FederalXBT