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Three Headwinds to Send Crude Oil Into Free FallNot too long ago, Gasoline prices rattled American car drivers with a price tag of USD 5 a gallon. And now, much to their delight, gasoline prices have eased to USD 3.50 a gallon. Slump in crude prices which influences gasoline has plunged by one-third over the last twelve months. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") trades around USD 70. Rattled US consumers, underwhelming Chinese recovery, and robust supply will drag crude oil prices down even further in the near term at least until OPEC+ meeting on June 4th. Barring an OPEC+ “shock-and-awe” intervention, crude oil will continue losing steam. This paper argues that a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil expiring in July (MCLN2023) with an entry of USD 71.90 a barrel with a target of 64.80, and hedged by a stop loss at 75.60, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.9x. RATTLED BUT RESILIENT. US CONSUMER SENTIMENT IS WEAKENING. Oil prices face massive headwinds in the near term in line with frail U.S. consumer sentiment. It slumped to a six-month low as a debt ceiling drama fuelled worries about the economic outlook. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment index clocked 57.7 pointing to the lowest reading since last November and down from 63.5 in April. Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% wiping out over half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June. While current macroeconomic data show little sign of recession, consumers’ worry about the economy escalated this month. Expectations for the economy a year from now sank 23% from last month. Longer term expectations contracted 16% highlighting that consumers concerns that economic downturn will not be shortlived. Consumers have demonstrated resilience thus far. But their anticipation of a recession will trigger to cut spending when signs of weakness emerge. An unresolved banking crisis and a prolonging debt ceiling drama paint a dismal picture for US consumers. It will amplify if debt default drama continues this week with rising likelihood of default and the resulting economic consequences. UNDERWHELMING CHINESE RECOVERY The much-anticipated economic rebound never occurred, but to describe it as underwhelming might be an understatement. Broad economic indicators point to weakening instead of recovery. Industrial production and retail sales missed forecasts. Unemployment rate among youth set a record high of 20.4%. A frail global economy adds to China’s gloom. High inflation and elevated rates in China’s key destination countries have slashed demand for Chinese products. Exporters at China’s largest trade fair reported a drop in overseas orders. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment, which have helped to offset the slump in property investment, both slowed in April from the previous month, a sign of more subdued government spending and weak business confidence. The property market remains weak despite early signs of a pickup in housing sales. Consumers are reluctant to borrow. China’s home price growth slowed in April. Indicators show slowing momentum in home purchases despite Government’s effort to prop up the real estate. China’s housing starts is at its lowest when compared over the last 10 years. Property investment shrank more than 16% in April YoY even though home sales grew. Construction of new homes continued to decline. New household loans, posted the first decline in 12 months in April 2023, suggesting that residents repaid more than they borrowed. NOT WEAK DEMAND BUT UNSEEN ROBUST OIL SUPPLY More than Expected Supply Given the gloomy headlines, it is easy to fall prey to the notion that demand is the problem. The real problem is too much supply, argues Javier Blas of Bloomberg. Unexpected production is primarily coming from OPEC+ countries despite promise of supply cuts. Many oil producing nations are unknowingly participants of the prisoner's game. Demand Remains Steady The IEA raised its forecast for 2023 global oil demand by 400,000 bpd, setting a record daily consumption of 102 million barrels. In short, demand remains resilient. IEA’s optimism may be misplaced, and oil demand growth might soften. But its forecast accounts for pessimistic diesel outlook. Presently, the oil market has all its eyes on Washington. The US gulps two out of every ten barrels pumped worldwide. But America is not the oil market. Its consumption lead has narrowed significantly. In 2023, the combined consumption of China and India (21.4 million bpd) is expected to be larger than the US (20.3 million bpd). The real hurdle holding back an oil rally is supply. The need for cash in producing nations forces them to pump more. These countries are trying to make up for lost revenues by ramping up volumes to compensate for what they are losing due to lower prices. MANAGED MONEY ARE BEARISH AT LEVELS UNSEEN SINCE 2011 Net position of non-commercial players is at its most bearish levels since 2011 across a combination of major oil contracts. Non-commercial participants include hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, asset managers, among others. Other Reportable Positions represent open interest by large participants that trade their own accounts and do not fit into any other category. TRADE SETUP Amid gloomy outlook and strong headwinds, this paper posits that a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures expiring in July (MCLN2023) with an entry of USD 72.00 with a target of 64.80, and hedged by a stop at 75.60, is likely to deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.9x. • Entry: 71.90 USD/barrel • Target: 64.80 USD/barrel • Stop: 75.60 USD/barrel • Profit at Target: USD 710 • Loss at Stop: USD 370 • Reward-to-risk: 1.9x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCLN2023Short
by mintdotfinance
CFX the NEO killer Opinion: In the ever-evolving landscape of digital currencies, Conflux (CFX) has been carving out its niche. This innovative cryptocurrency has been turning heads due to its unique benefits and deep-rooted connections to China and Hong Kong. The Unique Edge of CFX Cryptocurrency CFX, the proprietary token of the Conflux Network, stands out from the crowd of cryptocurrencies with several distinct advantages. Foremost among these is its ability to handle a high volume of transactions per second without sacrificing security or decentralization, as reported by CoinDesk. This scalability makes it a prime choice for developers and businesses aiming to create decentralized applications (DApps). Additionally, CFX transactions are both swift and economical. The Conflux Network employs a unique Tree-Graph consensus mechanism, which facilitates rapid transaction confirmation times and minimal fees. This makes it an attractive option for users who need to make frequent transactions. The China-CFX Connection CFX's ties to China are robust and multifaceted. The Conflux Network was established by a team of Chinese computer scientists and is the only public blockchain in China to receive state endorsement. This governmental approval gives CFX a unique standing in the Chinese cryptocurrency market and could potentially drive widespread adoption within the country. CFX has also been proactive in forging partnerships and launching initiatives within China. A case in point is their collaboration for an NFT (Non-Fungible Token) airdrop in China, as highlighted by Cointelegraph. This event was a significant milestone, demonstrating the potential of CFX and NFTs in the Chinese market. CFX's Footprint in Hong Kong CFX's influence extends beyond mainland China to Hong Kong. The Conflux Network has been actively involved in the Hong Kong blockchain community, participating in various events and initiatives. This active engagement helps to raise the profile of CFX in Hong Kong and strengthens its ties with the local blockchain community. The Potential of CFX and Its Governmental Ties The Conflux Network, powered by CFX, has a broad range of potential applications. It can be utilized to develop decentralized applications across a variety of sectors, including finance, gaming, and supply chain management. The network's scalability, speed, and low transaction fees make it an appealing platform for developers and businesses. Furthermore, CFX's relationship with the Chinese government could open up unique opportunities. The Chinese government has been actively investigating the use of blockchain technology in various sectors, as noted by South China Morning Post. As the only state-endorsed public blockchain in China, the Conflux Network could play a pivotal role in these initiatives. Strengthening Network Resilience: The Growth of CFX Miners Hashrate An important aspect of the Conflux Network's growth and resilience is the steady increase in its miners' hashrate. The hashrate, which measures the computational power of the network, has been on an upward trajectory, indicating a growing number of miners contributing to the network. This growth in hashrate is a testament to the increasing trust and commitment of miners in the Conflux Network. A higher hashrate not only signifies a more secure network but also enhances the network's resilience against potential attacks. As more miners join the network and contribute their computational power, it becomes increasingly difficult for any single entity to gain control over the network, thereby ensuring the integrity and security of the CFX blockchain. This growing resilience is a key factor in the Conflux Network's potential for long-term success and stability. Moreover, the rise in hashrate also reflects the increasing recognition of CFX's potential among miners. As the network continues to grow and evolve, it is expected to attract even more miners, further strengthening its security and resilience. This trend underscores the promising future of CFX as a robust and secure platform for decentralized applications and transactions. Conclusion CFX is a cryptocurrency with immense potential, offering unique advantages and strong ties to China and Hong Kong. Its scalability, speed, and low transaction fees make it an attractive option for users and developers. Moreover, its strong connections to the Chinese government could lead to unique opportunities and widespread adoption in China. As the world continues to embrace blockchain technology, CFX is well-positioned to play a significant role in this digital revolution. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 (Or S1-S3) has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. 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Long
by TheBitcoinGeneration
1
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISYen Undervalued, Yuan to Lose Ground Danske Bank continues to expect that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy this year, although the timing remains very uncertain. While a key argument against the Euro is that the currency is overvalued, it considers that the Japanese currency is substantially undervalued. According to Danske; “Overall, USD/JPY seems fundamentally overvalued and combined with potential monetary policy tightening; we expect the cross to drop below 130 on a 6-12M horizon. If inflationary pressures in Japan continue to persist, it will increasingly build pressure on the ultra-dovish stance that the BoJ has. Danske expects the Chinese yuan will lose ground due to broad dollar gains. A weaker Chinese currency would also act as a barrier to Euro gains.
Short
by thunderpips
VIPS (Long) - Undervalued Outperforming Chinese GemFundamentals The Chinese market has not performed rather well year-to-date, which makes the price action of VIPS that more impressive . Despite the wider market struggling, the firm showed strong growth last year with 35% growth in earnings. The recovering Chinese market might propel even more demand (which is the Chinese government actively supporting) and of which NYSE:VIPS would be one of the major beneficiaries The company is also quite undervalued with P/E = 9.8 and P/S = 0.6 The fundamentals are pristine with negligible amount of debt and high returns on equity and assets The market is smelling internal strength and earnings next week might serve as a perfect propellent to rocket the stock out of the base Technicals The company has been basing and creating a rounding base since the start of the year My main selling point is the impressive relative strength . While the Chinese tech market has been deteriorating since the start of the year, VIPS has been standing strong, buying back every possible breakdown. I have been actively watching price action on this stock for two months and investors are actively buying any potential downside. Relative strength against AMEX:KWEB is shown at the bottom of the chart, clearly pointing higher; RSI is breaking above 60; MACD is breaking out; stochastics are showing strength and the A/D line has been strengthening throughout the basing process Overall, the pattern very much looks like a bull flag about to break out Trade One option is to enter now and catch a perfect buy point, but then there is a need to risk a negative earnings surprise (I chose this option and entered today) Or wait until after the earnings which would be safer but risking a worse buying point; decision is up to your risk appetite Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I am happy to help If you like my content, Please leave a like, comment or a donation , it motivates me to keep producing ideas, thank you :)
NYSE:VIPSLong
by jurajholik
Looking for CN50 rallies.CHN50 - 24h expiry Buying pressure from 12916 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 13355 level. We look to Sell at 13355 (stop at 13455) Our profit targets will be 13105 and 13055 Resistance: 13660 / 14440 / 15080 Support: 12790 / 12400 / 11845 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDShort
by OANDA
The case for a Weaker Yuan The most recent Caixin Manufacturing PMI dipped below 50, landing back in contraction territory after two prints above the 50-mark. As the world's top exporter, China is acutely sensitive to fluctuations in both exports and manufacturing numbers. Historically, we've seen periods of Yuan devaluation during times of contracting Manufacturing PMI and exports as China works to invigorate export demand. With the latest PMI number trending lower, it's worth pondering whether this signals a movement toward a weaker Yuan. A more detailed examination of Chinese economic data presents some reasons for concern. Chinese export-related economic data has collectively taken a downward turn. This could stimulate further Yuan weakening as the government strives to reinvigorate exports. Moreover, as the world's second-largest oil importer, lower oil prices gives China additional leeway in weakening its currency, as the ripple effects of higher oil prices are tempered. From a technical perspective, the CNH is teetering on the edge of the 200-day moving average, and prices have once more nudged above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, in a shorter timeframe, we notice price action breaking out of the ascending triangle and nearing the top of the wedge pattern. With the USD breaking to the upside coupled with the potential for a weakening Yuan, we think this makes the case for a higher USDCNH. Taking a risk-managed long at the current level of 6.9520, a prudent stop 6.8930 and take profit level at 7.0900. A Standard Size USD/Offshore RMB (CNH) Futures represents 100,000 USD. Prices are quoted in RMB per USD, each 0.0001 per USD increment equal to 10 CNH. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
8
CN50 to find support at previous swing low?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13005 (stop at 12925) We are trading at oversold extremes. Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Our short term bias remains positive. The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 13000, resulting In improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 13205 and 13255 Resistance: 13660 / 14440 / 15080 Support: 12785 / 12400 / 11845 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:CHINA50Long
by VantageMarkets
CN50 to find support at previous resistance?CHN50 - 24h expiry Selling posted in Asia. The current move lower is expected to continue. Short term bias has turned positive. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 13200 level. We look to Buy at 13205 (stop at 13125) Our profit targets will be 13405 and 13445 Resistance: 13660 / 14440 / 15080 Support: 13180 / 12790 / 12400 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:CHINA50Long
by VantageMarkets
SSE Composite Index WCA - Classic Rectangle Introduction: Hello and thank you for taking the time to read my post. Today, we analyze the SSE Composite Index on the weekly scale, focusing on a classic price pattern called the "Rectangle Pattern." The SSE Composite Index is the most important stock index in China, excluding Hong Kong. It is a price index weighted by market capitalization and includes all public companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index is published by the China Securities Index Company. Analyzing an index helps enormously with top-down approaches, as it provides a broader perspective of the market and allows investors to gauge the overall sentiment before diving into individual stocks. Rectangle Pattern: The rectangle pattern is a chart pattern formed when the price of an asset moves between two parallel horizontal lines—representing support and resistance levels—over a period of time. In essence, it reflects a consolidation phase where the market is undecided about the direction of the trend. Remember, this is just a brief introduction to the technical aspects of the rectangle pattern. As you delve deeper into this topic, you'll discover more nuances and practical applications that can enhance your trading strategies. Additional Analysis: On the SSE Composite Index chart, we can observe some fascinating insights. The general trend was downward until 25/04/2022, which changed with the formation of a hammer. Since then, the price has been bound within a range, which is depicted as a classic rectangle pattern. This pattern has been forming for 423 days, which is notable because the longer a pattern remains consistent, the higher the probability that the subsequent breakout will be volatile. The support of the range is at 2890, while the resistance is at 3400. Currently, the price is above the 200 EMA, making a long entry more attractive. We will closely monitor the price pattern and wait for a break above 3400 while examining the sectors or stocks from the SSE Composite Index more closely. The next potential resistance after 3400 would be 3720. Top-Down Approach Significance: A top-down approach is a method that investors use to analyze the market, beginning with a broad overview and then narrowing down to individual stocks. This method helps investors identify the overall market sentiment and trends, allowing them to make more informed decisions when selecting stocks within specific sectors or industries. Analyzing the SSE Composite Index, as shown in this post, provides a valuable starting point for investors looking to employ a top-down approach in their decision-making process. Conclusion: The SSE Composite Index weekly chart showcases a classic Rectangle Pattern, reflecting a consolidation phase in the market. By closely monitoring the support and resistance levels, as well as the general trend, traders can be better prepared for any potential price action in the future. Utilizing a top-down approach enables investors to gain a broader perspective and make more informed decisions when selecting stocks. As always, it's essential to consider risk management and proper position sizing when trading based on chart patterns. Please note that this analysis is not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence when investing or trading. If you found this analysis helpful, please like, share, and follow for more updates. Happy trading! Best regards, Karim Subhieh
SSE:000001
by KarimSubhieh
2
China50 to stall at previous resistance?CHN50 - 24h expiry Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 13375 level. We look to Sell at 13320 (stop at 13399) Our profit targets will be 13119 and 13069 Resistance: 13660 / 14440 / 15080 Support: 12790 / 12400 / 11845 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDShort
by OANDA
Hang Seng Index (HSI) WCA - Inverted Head and Shoulders PatternHello and thank you for taking the time to read my post. Today, we analyze the Hang Seng Index (HSI) on the weekly scale, focusing on a classic price pattern called the "Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern." The Hang Seng Index is the leading stock index in Hong Kong and one of the most important in Asia. It tracks the share prices of the 50 largest and most traded companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, representing about 57% of the total market capitalization on this exchange. Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern: The inverted head and shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs at the end of a downtrend. It is characterized by three troughs or valleys, with the middle one being the lowest (the head) and the two on either side being relatively higher (the shoulders). The pattern is completed by a horizontal line called the "neckline," which connects the highs of the shoulders. In a nutshell, the formation of the inverted head and shoulders pattern signals a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. Remember, this is just a brief introduction to the technical aspects of the inverted head and shoulders pattern. As you delve deeper into this topic, you'll discover more nuances and practical applications that can enhance your trading strategies. Additional Analysis: Upon analyzing the HSI weekly chart, we observe a downward trend since 16/02/2021, with the blue diagonal resistance line representing the general trend. As classic chart pattern analysts, our attention is immediately drawn to the textbook example of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, clearly defined with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder. The symmetry between the shoulders is perfect, and the pattern has been forming for an impressive 491 days. This is noteworthy because the longer a price pattern remains consistent, the more powerful the eventual breakout will be. We cannot predict when the right shoulder will form and break out, but we can see that the price supports the symmetry line in the form of a bullish engulfing (orange mark). The price is currently still below the 200 EMA, which is another indication that we should continue to watch this price pattern closely and not jump to conclusions. Thus, we patiently await our opportunity. Conclusion: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) weekly chart showcases an Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern, reflecting a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. By closely monitoring the pattern's intricacies and the market's subtle cues, traders can be better prepared for any potential price action in the future. As always, it's essential to consider risk management and proper position sizing when trading based on chart patterns. Please note that this analysis is not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence when investing or trading. If you found this analysis helpful, please like, share, and follow for more updates. Happy trading! Best regards,
HSI:HSI
by KarimSubhieh
China A50 hello traders i am looking for buy zone in chinna A50 , you can see this head and shoulder ... you can buy in the price reversal zone on fibo 0.618 + and dynamid supourt ... what is A50???? The FTSE China A50 Index is the benchmark for investors to access the China domestic market through A Shares – securities of companies incorporated in mainland China and traded by Chinese and institutional investors under the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII & RQFII) regulation. It is a real-time, tradable index comprising the largest 50 A Share companies by full market capitalisation of the securities listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. The FTSE China A50 Index is a free-float adjusted, liquidity-screened index. It is reviewed quarterly in March, June, September and December to ensure the index remains representative of the underlying China market. The index offers the optimal balance between representativeness and tradability for China’s A Share market. It can be used as the basis for on-exchange and OTC derivative products, mutual funds and ETFs.
SKILLING:CHINA50Long
by mehdi_kb
The Rise (mean reversion) of the Russian RubleThe Russian Ruble is represented on an inverted, logarithmic scale vs.the G/S & G7 currency basket, where a rise in price levels on the chart indicates an irise in the Ruble. For all the widely known reasons the Russian Ruble remains a remarkably accurate yard stick of the march of imperialism and the states of various hegemonies ("Globalization", in short) for the past 20 years. The Russian Federation maintains 0 (zero) debt , a positive account balance, combined with what is most likely the largest horde of gold & foreign reserves outside (and insulated from) Western jurisdictions, making the currency remarkably stable - despite all the propaganda and wishful thinking to the contrary -, for the past two decades. (It has proven itself far more stable than other means or stores of value across the G-7. This is clearly a thorn in the side of others' continued imperialist aspirations.) These facts simply highlight the present (and potential future) opportunity, wherein any significant deviation from the Median likely represents a significant trading opportunity. LONG p.s. On the contrary, the current vogue of wide spread and simple-minded speculations, heralding the rise of China and hence, the Yuan/Remninbi as the new, potentially global reserve currency, are so fundamentally flawed that entire books have addressed the topic as of late, examining it in great detail and with accuracy. I.e., a rapidly collapsing Chinese population, quickly followed by de-industralization and de-urbanization a stable, global reserve currency does not make! - Among other, inherently disqualifying factors.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Nemo_Confidat
Tesla - $250 Is Coming... Don't Lose Your Legs In the Bear Trap As I said in my previous call on Tesla, which was rather successful, I'm not a big fan of Elon Musk. Tesla TSLA - The Bottom Is In, But It's Still Bearish Especially as the post-Twitter acquisition has unfolded, I feel Musk rode the wave he could to do his "Twitter Files" thing and clawback some rightists/Conservatives that were alienated under the former Mastodon socialist leadership. But the Twitter Files weren't really news to anyone who actually has been following COVID lockdown narrative or January 6 Capitol Riot censorship. And now Twitter is kind of the same as it's always been, but more shadowbanny, and will increasingly become more and more central to the coming globalist Central Bank Digital Currency/social credit system. Musk, a transhumanist, has alluded to transforming Twitter into an "everything app" himself, all while lauding the communist regime in China's WeChat as if it were some kind of good thing. CBDCs and social credit are, ultimately, the world outside of the Chinese Communist Party attempting to emulate and import the CCP's operational methodology and ways. This is a disaster for mankind, and should be opposed and challenged by everyone who wants a future. A Warning on Red China As always, my usual warning, especially for a company like Tesla that has a Gigafactory in Shanghai: you have to be very careful in bullish market conditions with the pandemic situation in China. Western media simply isn't reporting anything and the CCP keeps a very strict censorship regimen with a high degree of secrecy, so you'll be in the dark until it's too late to cry about your gap losses. Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party claims to have only suffered ~85,000 deaths since Wuhan Pneumonia began. That's 59 deaths per million people, and is literally a laughable claim that the epicenter of the pandemic and the world's (formerly) most populous country has suffered a factor of 10 or 60 times less magnitude of fatalities than the west that the regime exported the disease to. In reality, this is obviously impossible. Moreover, the CCP covered up the 2003 SARS pandemic. A lot, a lot of people died during that pandemic, but the regime just told the world that everything was great. Only a total fool believes anything that the CCP says. The problem for a company like Tesla is a huge sum of both its supply and demand is tightly wed to China, and a pandemic situation that Xi can't keep under control and a weak Communist Party means the risk of black swan events hitting in the middle of the night when the US markets are closed is _extremely_ significant. The Call Now for price action, markets, especially NASDAQ and tech, all mooned in the wake and run up to FOMC. But this also came in the first two days of February, and we have a Jerome Powell speech on Feb. 7 and jobless claims on the 9th. It's reasonable (and important) to anticipate that the low set at 10:30 AM on Feb.1 @ $169.95 is not going to be the low of the month. It's also important to notice that the mania candle swept out the December high by 8 cents and was followed by a ~4% retrace, significant because it set up a double top pattern on the daily candles. In my opinion, there's a very high chance that Tesla will dump rather aggressively to liquidate leveraged longs, raid long stops, and make weekly call options expire worthless, a move that will simultaneously serve as a bear trap. $162 to $133 is a rather wide range, but it represents a combination of a weekly price displacement and a microgap. In combination with range equilibrium being $150, and $150 being a psychological operation number, a sweep all the way down to $145~ is something I anticipate. Now, all that being said, what I would like to say is that Tesla has been so crazily bullish (almost doubling in under 30 trading sessions; this was still a $300 billion market cap company!), that range equilibrium may not be touched, and those gaps underneath it may be breakaway gaps. So that being said, you have a hard choice if you want to go long on a dump. Because if you see $160, you really might not get better than $160 and Tesla doesn't like to stay low for long if it's going up. But if you buy $160 it can drop another 10 or maybe 15 percent, which means your calls turn (or expire if you're degen weekly) worthless. This is a real game theory problem as the MMs, who know the schedule, use time as their greatest weapon. So perhaps a reasonable strategy is to go for the TSLL leveraged long ETF at $160 and just baghold/add if it drops more. Bears talking about the gaps at $85 and lower, it's not that they're wrong... It's that Tesla already fell from $330~ to $100 in the course of a few months, and this was one of the world's largest companies by market cap. You really cannot afford to be so greedy to bottom short and bottom short and bottom short. You were already so lucky that you could bottom short and not get your head split for so long. It's really very rare in equities to be able to do that. The bounce has been so extreme that the market makers have thus made it clear that both two digit Tesla is not coming right now, and also that when you do see two digit Tesla, you can't buy it. TL;DR, Tesla $250 is the next stop. If you get so lucky as to buy $150, I think that's pretty good, and you should even hold a portion of your position through $250.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by LordWrymouth
6
China50 to see a limited rally?CHN50 - 24h expiry - Buying pressure from 12830 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 13100 level. We look to Sell at 13095( stop at 13205) Our profit targets will be 12825 and 12765 Resistance: 13180 / 13660 / 14440 Support: 12790 / 12400 / 11845 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDShort
by OANDA
Heavy Exports Weighing Down SoybeansSoybean is among the world’s most traded crop. It is used in various industries. Soybean drives global food prices. It can tilt trade balances of an entire nation. This paper describes the importance of Soybean. It lists key producers, consumer and maps the harvesting cycle across the calendar by top producing countries. Given rising Brazilian exports, higher US planting, and asset manager’s positioning, this paper articulates a case study for a short position in CME Soybeans Futures delivering a 1.3x reward to risk with entry at USc 1,452.5/bushel and target of USc 1,350/bushel hedged by a stop at USc 1,530/bushel. SOYBEAN IS THE WORLD’S MOST TRADED GRAIN Soybean is high in protein. Hence, it is a key component of livestock feed for meat & dairy production. Rising consumption of the latter two continues to push Soybeans demand. Two-thirds of Soybean is used for crushing into oil and meal. Soybean oil is among the most widely used vegetable oils. It is also used as biodiesel. The two American continents form 80% of global production. Brazil (42%) and the US (31%) are the two largest producers of Soybeans. Argentina is a distant third (7%). China drives demand. It is the largest importer of Soybeans. It comprises 60% of global imports. Soybeans is used to feed China’s massive livestock. Soybean prices are cyclical and prone to price shocks. HARVESTING CYCLE, WEATHER & TRADE POLICY HUGELY INFLUENCES PRICES Prices vary through the year. It is lowest at harvest. Increases during the year with rising inventory holding costs. Harvest seasons are spread differently across North & South America. US harvest is from September to November. While the Brazil & Argentina harvest from March until June. Not surprisingly, Brazilian and US harvest has an enormous impact on Soybean prices. Actual production deviating from expectations in these two majors can send prices surging or tumbling. Soybean prices since 2015 is visualised below. Prices have structurally moved up. Prices have surged driven by robust demand since 2020. Soybean prices on average have ranged 14% from its lowest to the highest over the last eight years with large price gyrations in 2016 and 2020. Price behaviour during and post-harvest since 2015 is visually described in the heatmap below. All things being equal, Soybean prices trend lower during harvesting followed by price recovery post-harvest. However, each year presents idiosyncratic conditions related to weather, trade policy, yield and output, causing price fluctuation. Beyond the harvest cycle, climate has a significant impact. North and South America is heavily affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation which is a natural climate pattern causing hotter/dryer climate every three to seven years. El- Niño also elevates the chances of droughts and floods. Demand for Soybean Oil is also impacted by supply and demand of other vegetable oils like Palm Oil due to substitution effect. Global trade policy has a considerable influence too. Trade restrictions can disrupt global supply-demand balance, resulting in increased volatility. HIGHER PLANTING IN US, RISING BRAZILIAN EXPORTS, AND FALLING YIELDS IN ARGENTINA USA : In its recent Market Outlook, the USDA reported that US farmers were planning to plant marginally higher than last year but below market expectations. As per National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), soybean crushing spiked to a 15-month high and the second highest level for any month on record in March. The crushing pace jumped as processors bounce back from maintenance related downtime. Brazil : Soybean exports from Brazil surged 42.5% YoY during the first half of April. Bean prices have trended lower on larger than expected supply. Argentina : USDA reduced its forecast of Argentina’s soybean crop to twenty-seven million metric tons down from thirty-three million metric tons last month. Argentina’s soybean yields sunk to historical lows last week as per Buenos Aires Grains Exchange’s (BAGE) weekly report. BAGE warned that its projection, currently at twenty-five million metric tons, could be reduced if yield remains suppressed. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT Two-thirds of soybean crop is crushed into oil and meal. The crush spread, also sometimes referred to as simply the crush, refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. The “crush” is gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. As such, these three products are deeply intertwined. Asset managers have reduced net longs in all three contracts since the start of 2023. Intriguingly, asset managers have reduced net longs much more sharply for Oil and Meal relative to Soybeans. TRADE SET UP Four key drivers at play. First, rising supply from Brazil. Second, higher planting by US farmers. Third, bearish asset manager positioning. Finally, first three offset by marginal impact of lower yields in Argentina. In forming a holistic view, this paper posits a short position in CME Soybeans July contract. Each lot provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 tons). Prices are quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Minimum price fluctuation (tick) is one-fourth of one-cent. Therefore, every tick represents a change of USD 12.50 per lot. ● Entry: USc 1,452.5 ● Target: USc 1,350 ● Stop: USc 1,530 ● Profit at target: USD 5,125 ● Loss at stop: USD 3,875 ● Reward-to-risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZSN2023Short
by mintdotfinance