Rebound after retesting the top of descending triangle? Previous H&S idea was invalidated, the price went testing the top of the descending triangle and seems to find some bid there. If we can rally from here we could visit again the range 14'750-15'000. If the price closes back below the triangle look for bearish continuation.
China
The Dragon Bouncing BackSwift dismantling of zero-Covid policy in China has triggered a surge in demand resulting in robust economic recovery. Is this a flash in the pan or a structural shift?
Bouncing off from 2022 bottom in early November, Chinese equities (represented by FTSE China 50 Index, "China50 Index") rallied 64% on COVID easing. The rally has stalled based on specific sector weaknesses causing a 12% correction in February.
This paper argues that record revenues (over CNY holidays in January), anticipated pro-growth Government stimulus, record-levels of consumer savings, and loose monetary policy will collectively drive Chinese equities higher.
A long position in CME’s E-Mini FTSE China 50 Index futures will deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.35x while riding this economic shift.
SECOND LEG OF RE-OPENING TO LEAD TO RECOVERY
Five reasons support our bullish stance on Chinese equities:
First, favourable technical signals. Stalled rally plus weak sentiments have caused the markets to retrace 12%, leaving it right below a key Fibonacci retracement level. This suggests that the FTSE China 50 Index could continue its upward trajectory in 2023 as reopening turns into recovery.
Second, pro-growth fiscal policies. Investors hold high anticipation of upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) scheduled for early March. During the “Two Sessions,” the government is expected to make pro-growth policy announcements to boost the economy.
Historical analysis shows that the Two Sessions (NPC plus top political advisory body meeting) tend to provide solid tail winds to the stock market. Shares have previously rallied ahead of the meetings and afterwards as investors digest the news. Over the last decade, real estate & healthcare shares delivered the largest excess returns following these meetings.
Third, accommodative monetary policies. Meanwhile, PBOC added liquidity into the financial system to meet a rapid rebound in loan demand. PBOC kept short-term & long-term Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the sixth straight month. Short-term LPR was at 3.65%. Long-term LPR (used to calculate mortgage rates) was at 4.3%. Both are at their lowest level in 20 years as China tries to balance economic growth and currency stability.
Fourth, revenge spending. Forced to stay home due to Covid restrictions & unable to spend, Chinese consumers saved one-third of their income last year, depositing RMB 17.8 trillion (USD 2.6 trillion) into banks. Even for a thrifty nation like China, that's massive. With restrictions gone, will Chinese consumers revenge to spend their excess savings?
Finally, valuations of Chinese shares are seemingly still in bulls’ favour despite the reopening rally. The MSCI China Index is trading at 10.9x forward P/E, below the 10-year average of 11.2x.
In tandem with equity market price retracement, China centric commodities such as Iron Ore and Copper have also stalled. But are looking to rise again.
ECONOMIC DATA PAINTS A HOPEFUL FUTURE AHEAD
Economic data from China show positive signs of economic recovery in 2023. Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), an important leading indicator of business activity, rebounded sharply in January.
GOVERNMENT PRIORITIZING ECONOMIC GROWTH
The Chinese government has announced stimulus packages to support its struggling Real Estate and Tech Sectors. For instance, Guangzhou recently committed $29 billion to local tech funds to inject capital into high-tech sectors.
The government also announced a 21-point plan in January to boost property developer’s balance sheets with $67 billion in aid.
Moving in tandem with pro-growth Government accommodative fiscal policy, the PBOC continues its commitment to accommodative monetary policy by keeping key short- and long-term Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at their lowest level in almost two decades to boost growth.
However, this monetary stimulus comes at the cost of rising inflation in the country.
PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ARE BULLISH CHINA AGAIN
In a note recently published by Goldman Sachs, the bank expects Chinese stocks to surge as much as 24% by the end of this year as the economy shifts from reopening to recovery.
The bank highlighted that "professional speculators" on their prime brokerage platform are showing a greater appetite for Chinese stocks.
Goldman highlighted that hedge funds had substantially re-risked their exposure in offshore Chinese equities with net Chinese exposure to total equity exposure reverting to all-time highs.
FOREIGN INVESTORS ARE BULLISH CHINA TOO
HKEX's Stock Connect program’s north bound flows shows that foreign investors heavily bought into Chinese equities in January and continue to so do in February despite retracement.
The Shanghai Northbound Stock Connect, which allows HK investors to access Chinese equities listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) saw net buying of RMB 83.4B so far in 2023.
The Shenzhen Northbound Stock Connect shows net purchases of RMB 74.1B this year. In comparison, these investors bought RMB 9.6B of Shanghai & RMB 25.4B Shenzhen shares in December.
Besides the connect program, foreign investment into China scaled up in January to the highest level since June 2022. Foreign investors bought RMB 128 billion ($18.7 billion) according to China’s Ministry of Commerce. That was 14.5% higher YoY and a 75% jump in investment into high-tech manufacturing. This spike reversed two months of double-digit drops in late 2022.
DEMYSTIFYING THE CHINA 50 INDEX
The FTSE China 50 Index comprises of the 50 largest and most liquid Chinese stocks that are listed and traded in Hong Kong. The index is specifically designed for international investors to get exposure to Chinese equities.
The China 50 index is dominated by large tech stocks representing 23.4% of the index. Bank stocks have a 18% weightage with retailer shares weighing in at 15%.
The overall index provides a balanced with a mildly skewed tech exposure to Chinese equities.
TRADE SET UP
With a raft of Government and PBOC policies supporting Chinese economic recovery amplified by optimistic investor sentiments, this paper proposes a long position in CME’s E-Mini FTSE China 50 Index futures expiring in June 2023 to harvest a 2.35x reward to risk ratio.
Each futures contract offers exposure to $2 x China 50 Index.
Entry: 12,990
Target: 15,800
Stop: 11,800
Profit at Target: $5,620
Loss at Stop: $2,380
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.35x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Copper is red hot on China’s reopening, but there is more to itCopper is to commodities, what tech stocks are to equities. They are both historically cyclical but also promise potential long-term growth. Tech stocks were down last year, not because the underlying technologies were dead, but because central banks were aggressively tightening monetary policy. Copper too endured the same fate on account of macro headwinds despite the accelerating energy transition. Lockdowns in China added another layer of disappointment.
So, with the macro backdrop changing this year, is the red metal becoming red hot? Markets appear to be endorsing that narrative. What does the demand and supply situation look like?
China reopening
China consumes more than half of global refined copper with its demand experiencing an eight-fold increase in the past four decades1. Chinese manufacturing activity, therefore, is inevitably a key driver of copper prices (see figure below).
Chinese manufacturing activity remained contractionary through August till December last year, as evident from the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. In January, while the number remained contractionary at 49.22, the expectation is for it to pick up in the coming months if lockdowns remain sustainably lifted.
China is a crucial source of copper’s green demand too. Chinese subsidies for electric vehicle (EV) makers have given rise to a booming industry to the point where BYD is now competing fiercely with Tesla for market share worldwide. Although subsidies for producers will come to an end this year, tax exemptions for buyers will remain in place through 2023. This will further be supported by the rollout of charging infrastructure, a key component of China’s 14th 5-year plan issued in December 2022.
A battery EV can require three to four times as much copper as an equivalent internal combustion engine vehicle. Similarly, a 200 kilowatt (kW) fast charging station uses around 8 kilograms of copper3. There is a similar multiplicative effect on copper demand from other energy transition applications like renewable wind and solar power, which China is heavily investing in.
The supply side
In What’s Hot: Dr Copper’s misdiagnosis, we highlighted how copper’s inventories on exchanges are perilously low, a sign of supply tightness which could exacerbate if demand picked up quickly.
According to Wood Mackenzie, copper may see a slight global refined market surplus of 170 kilotons (kt) in 20234. But there is considerable uncertainty surrounding this forecast. On the supply side, disruptions such as the ones we’ve seen recently in Peru could play an important role. Peru is the second largest copper producing nation and is responsible for around 10% of global mined production.
Anti-government demonstrations in Peru have led to shipments being halted at the 300 kt Las Bambas mine, and disruptions at Glencore’s 180 kt Antapaccay mine, and other mines including Constancia (117 kt) and Cuajone (148 kt)5.
The figures above highlight how disruption in supply from Peru can easily tip the copper market into a deficit. While disruption may not be as severe this time as it was when Covid caused mine closures in Chile and Peru in 2020-2021, it could still be meaningful especially if coupled with more demand from China. Market pricing has been moving in response to these developments.
The energy transition
At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged unprecedented support in clean technology across all sectors of the energy transition. For Europe to remain competitive in the new era of clean energy, it must offer something that can rival the US Inflation Reduction Act. In 2023, we expect more action from US, Europe, and China now that energy security has become synonymous with the energy transition.
According to Wood Mackenzie, for the world to be on track for net zero by 2050, 9.7 Mt of mine supply will need to come from projects that are yet to be approved. This amounts to $23bn of investment a year in new projects, 64% higher than the average annual spend over the last 30 years.
Conclusion
Copper’s long-term demand trends suggest it could continue trending upwards but remain cyclical depending on the macroeconomics. Cyclical pullbacks could create interesting entry points for investors who recognise copper’s structural case.
Sources
1 International Copper Study Group’s Factbook 2022.
2 Bloomberg, January 2023.
3 International Copper Study Group 2023.
4 Wood Mackenzie’ report, “Copper: Things to look for in 2023” dated January 2023.
5 Morgan Stanley as of January 2023.
THE START OF NEOSince the AI hype, there seems to be a trend to start, the Chinese altcoins seem to increase since the last trends in Hongkong where companies are able to order crypto.
NEO is one of the coins that are increasing, and we're expecting that the trend can keep going coming time.
WE will follow this coin to see if it can confirm the coming time in the 22-29 USD zone.
Buying CN50 at current swing low.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13261 (stop at 13101)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
Trading within a Bearish Channel formation.
Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 13661 and 13741
Resistance: 13570 / 14235 / 15080
Support: 13110 / 12645 / 12070
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
TOP CHINESE PUMP ASSETSLet's take a look at the basic metrics of the most interesting assets of the market, which gave a profit of 4x-5x of the investment only on the spot. These assets are considered to be Chinese tokens, which pump the current market
Conflux ($CFX)
1. L1 blockchain
2. Price: $0.2
3. ATH Price: $1.5
4. Market.cap: $586m
5. FDMC: $1.4b
6. Changes in the last three months: +1000%
Alchemy Pay ($ACH)
Solution for payments
1. Price: $0.39
2. ATH Price: $0.12
3. Market.cap: $201m
4. FDMC: $396m
5. Changes in the last three months:: +400%
OAX ($OAX)
Crypto Foundation
1. Price: $0.23
2. ATH Price: $2.2
3. Market.cap: $18m
4. FDMC: $23m
5. Changes in the last three months:: +250%
OKB ($OKB)
Native token of the Okex exchange
1. Price: $49.72
2. ATH Price: $50
3. Market.cap: $2.9b
4. FDMC: $14.8b
5. Changes in the last three months:: +300%
TRON ($TRX)
L1 blockchain
1. Price: $0.068
2. ATH Price: $0.22
3. Market.cap: $6.3b
4. FDMC: $6.3b
5. Changes in the last three months:: +60%
What can we do now?
Search for new unknown tokens that can be connected to the Chinese metaverse.
Search for new narratives.
What do you think about these tokens? Share your opinion with us and check our links below.
Tell us about other top tokens of the current pump if you have some in mind. Thanks for reading!
ALGORITHMIC MODEL NEO 2023 $120ALGORITHMIC MODEL FOR NEO 2023 with price action prediction.
NEO seems to get into a new green view since days ago on the algorithmic trading side.
There is a high chance NEO will keep the volume with the days up to break out to the important level of $20, further to the R line of $29.
For the year 2023, we expect that NEO can target the $120 USD on more reasons behind the algorithmic trading.
Based on further analysis using algorithmic trading, we predict that NEO could reach a value of $120 USD in 2023.
This is not a day trading view and not based on the current price, but a target prediction for 2023
know that there is no guarantee at trading, manage always your risk.
The info shows a basic chart view where the algorithmic already added before on the chart with more factors and study views.
So let's see if this year can bring NEO to a $120 USD price action, and to be exactly depending on algorithm trading it shows a price action of $123
CAN CHINA BRING NEO TO 100 USD = YESNEO used to be a stable coin for a while, but recent trends in China suggest that it is gradually making a comeback. We will have to wait and see if NEO starts showing similar trends as Aptos did in the past, as the data seems to suggest.
It's difficult to predict the future price of NEO, but based on technical analysis of its volume and trend, there is a chance that China could give NEO a boost, potentially resulting in a price above $100 USD. However, for this to happen, NEO needs to break through the important $29 USD price point in the coming time.
Currently, data indicates that NEO is an interesting coin, with high volume. Given that NEO has always been an important coin in China, we can expect that China may be able to break out in the short term.
Most users that did buy NEO historically are from china.
There is a structure by HK that allow china companies to buy crypto
Tencent major 4.5% drop sending a break in structure Tencent break in uptrend structure - Bearish
Tencent has eventually broken below the Uptrend structure after fantastic upside.
This means, the price is now in free fall and is more likely to touch the previous support (brim level of the last Cup and Handle ).
21<7 price>200 - Reversal
RSI <50 - Bearish
Target 312
I just did an analysis on Naspers which we spoke about how Tencent has the correlation.
As Naspers correlates with Tencent and Prosus... We saw a sluggish market in Asia session with the banking holiday effect in America.
Hong Kong stocks slump as Chinese tech giants step up rivalries, HSBC in focus as market await corporate earnings boost. The Hang Seng Index declined 1.7 per cent to 20,529.49 at the close of Tuesday trading, the biggest drop in over a week. The Tech Index tumbled 3.6 per cent while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5 per cent. The benchmark index has lost nearly 5 per cent in the past two weeks as hedge funds withdrew from the market. With Tencent dropping 4.5% this is why we saw a large breakaway gap with Naspers.
Caution is needed with such volatility .
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BABA when Charlie Munger did:
or reentered when it was cheaper than the IPO:
Now looking at the BABA Alibaba options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $110 strike price Calls with
2023-8-18 expiration date for about
$10.20 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
I have chosen that expiration date to allow me to be wrong and not close the position and to have a bigger gain by the expiration date, if BABA Alibaba keeps on climbing.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
EEM: Emerging Market MSCI (EM) : SELLEmerging markets equities had to clear many hurdles in 2022 but began to recover in the fourth quarter.
But technically, there are hurdles, The Red sloping line of 2021 is the prime example.
After the steep drop in equity markets overall in 2022, It is believed that emerging markets equities may be one of the most mispriced asset classes, with attractive valuations compared with historical levels.
A 15% drop cannot be ruled out...fundamentals are strong, but technicals will sadly rule.
China: Back to the Grind (SHORT)China:
Morgan Stanley scenario:
Chinese stock indexes could plunge by another 20% from current levels over the next six to 12 months — and potentially remain lower for much longer if the hypothetical stress scenario persists.
China’s GDP could slow drastically, averaging 2% growth in 2023.
More than 11 million people could lose their jobs, likely sending the urban unemployment rate above 7%. Construction, accommodation and catering would see the most job cuts.
Buying CN50 at trend of higher lows.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13540 (stop at 13470)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
The trend of higher lows is located at 13455.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 13740 and 14235
Resistance: 14235 / 15080 / 16150
Support: 13110 / 12645 / 12070
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
DXY possible breakoutThe DXY is on watch for an hourly breakout.
This is coming on the back of China inflationary numbers.
2.1% YOY inflation
0.8% MOM inflation.
The Month over month came in slightly hotter than expected which could be signaling maybe a hotter US CPI next week.
The China Reopening may be the cause of this.
Higher low on USD/CNH hints at countertrend bounceYield differentials between the US and China 2-year treasury note continue to suggest USD/CNH could be oversold, at least over the near-term. The daily close chart (above in black) also better shows the potential for a higher low, as part of a countertrend move.
The daily candlestick chart shows a recent pullback has failed to retest the 6.6976 low, and yesterday formed a 2-bar bullish reversal pattern (bullish piercing line). Whilst prices remain within a small retracement channel, we’re now looking for a break higher and minimum move to the highs around 0.6800 (near the monthly pivot point, 100% projection and recent highs).
Should it break higher, then the it has the potential to extend to the 138.2% or 161.8% projection levels, the latter of which is by the 200-day EMA.
Further out, I doubt Beijing will want their currency to depreciate too much given weak export data, so its possible the anticipated move higher is simply a countertrend move which could later break to new cycle lows.
Wandering Balloon Deflates the Rise of Chinese YuanCME: USD/RMB Futures ( CME:CNH1! )
US-China relations are arguably the most challenging bilateral relations in the 21st century. It has been in a free fall since the 2018 trade conflict. The competition has intensified and spread to investment, technology, among other arenas since then.
On November 14th, 2022, President Biden met with President Xi during the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. This was expected to be a turning point to stabilize the relations.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken planned a follow-up trip to China, scheduled to depart on February 3rd. However, a massive balloon floating in the skies of Montana causes a diplomatic panic. The US alleges that it is a high-altitude military surveillance balloon from China, while China claims that it is a civilian airship derailed by wind, a force majeure accident.
Last Friday, Secretary Blinken announces the postponement of his China trip. The next day, U.S. military shoots down the balloon over the Atlantic Ocean off South Carolina.
The drama between Washington and Beijing has significant impacts over the annual $700 billion bilateral trade. Tensions could be a nightmare for tens of thousands of US companies operating in China. Today, we focus on the most prominent market risk of all, USD/CNH, the US dollar – Chinese Yuan exchange rate.
The Rise and Fall of USD/CNH
In FX spot and futures markets, USD/CNH is quoted as Yuan per Dollar. When the quote of USD/CNH rises, CNH depreciates because each dollar can be exchanged for more yuan. Similarly, a falling quote represents dollar depreciation which in turn is yuan appreciation.
How is the USD/CNH exchange rate determined? Interest rate parity (IRP) states that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. The formula for IRP is:
F0=S0×((1+ ic)/(1+ib)), where:
Forward Rate=Spot Rate × ((1+ Country C’s Interest Rate)/(1+ Country B’s Interest Rate) )
The 10-Year US Treasury Yield is currently quoted at 3.623%, higher than the 10-Year Chinese Government Bond Yield of 2.934%. Plug these into the IRP formula with a spot rate of 6.792, we will arrive at a forward rate of 6.837.
Examining the 1-year price chart of CME CNH futures, we find that Yuan lost 10,000 points between March and October last year, from 6.3 to 7.3. The trend closely correlates with the Fed rate hikes. This is a vindication of sound economic theory. While China’s central bank exercises control over its currency, in recent years it adopted open market operations and phased out strong-armed government directives.
The parallel trends diverged in November, as China ended its 3-year-long Zero-Covid policy. China’s reopening becomes the main driver of USD/CNH, which receded 6,000 points from 7.3 to 6.7 in three months.
Yuan’s strengthening has been interrupted last week as the Balloon incident hits the newswire. USD/CNH lost 900 points in two days, currently quoting at 6.792.
In my opinion, as the Fed tightening cycle enters the last inning, it no longer has an overarching impact over USD/CNH. Going forward, US-China bilateral relations take over.
Bilateral relationship between the countries will remain unpredictable. This is a developing story. Will there be a strong retaliation, or a mulled response? Different actions could swing the Yuan exchange rate from one extreme to the other.
Hedging for Currency Exposure Amid Unstable Relations
US importers, exporters, and US companies operating in China all face significant risks when the exchange rate is so volatile. Some of the cost may be in one currency, while the revenue is in another. Hedging net currency exposure is key to lock in the profit.
US-China trade has been very unstable in the past few years. But overall, a “decoupling” trend has already been under way. In 2017, China was the largest US trading partner. Bilateral trade accounted for 16.9% of all US foreign trade.
The most recent data for the first 11 months of 2022 shows a different story now:
• Canada is the No. 1 US trading partner with $733.1 billion and a 14.9% share
• Mexico is the 2nd largest, with $718.3 billion (14.6%)
• China is now only the 3rd largest with $639.5 billion and a 13.0% share
The US has become less dependent on China in its global supply chain. This is evident by the huge growth in bilateral trades with Vietnam (+122%), Taiwan (+102%) and India (+89%) in the last five years, while China trade only managed to grow 2%.
Short-term Trades May Prevail
In “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”, I discussed my preference for short-range trading this year over longer-term holding done in the past year. Market uncertainties pose more challenges in analyzing multiple moving targets with uncharted trajectories.
The Chinese currency is exactly what I am talking about. Just when you think China’s reopening would induce a secular bull run, a wandering balloon out of the blue sky deflates that hope. I would not be surprised if we have a repeat of the 2018 Trade Conflict. When the tension between the two superpowers intensifies, it could swing the market wildly.
For readers who have followed my stories, once again, we could leverage the game theory and event-driven strategy in response to this unexpected market event. In the past few years, I have deployed game theory and strangle options across a number of highly volatile and uncertain market scenarios, upon US-China Trade Conflict, the Russia-Ukraine Conflict, the Fed Rate Hikes, the US Midterm elections, and the US Debt Ceiling Showdown. Most of these ideas have been published on TradingView. You will find links to these stories at the end of this report.
While there isn’t an option contract available on the CNH, short-term trade on the currency futures contract may be considered.
Take the balloon incident as an example: Do you think Beijing will retaliate or merely protest in words? The former could worsen the US-China relations, and in my view, push the value of the Yuan down. The latter indicates the conflict can be managed without getting out of control, which is good news for the Yuan.
In summary:
• Hawkish response – Yuan value Down and CNH futures price Up;
• Dovish response – Yuan value Up and CNH quote Down
Once you form an educated opinion on which action is more likely, consider placing a long (hawkish) or short (dovish) futures position accordingly. Then hold on for the events to unravel. If history is any guide, the market often tends to over-shoot in response to overreaction.
Happy trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com