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CNHJPY - SHORT; This pair is ready to fall off a cliff!Considering China's (ongoing!!) predicament caused by an oncoming, abject, demographic (urban, industrial) collapse, the obvious consequence is a stand-alone Japan's as the region's only remaining super power" ... Making this Short a no-brainer, probably well over a decade and a half. The Long Term Price Target on this pair is: 10! (I.e. a >50% Decline ..., ... provided that there will be still such a thing as a convertible (off-shore) Yuan, further down the road - which, in itself, is very unlikely!)
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
Nowhere to HideEmerging markets have made some terrific gains in the past month, but I would caution with the path ahead. Take a look at the past year's performance of the Hang Seng, KOSPI, IBOVESPA. I've included a chart of the Tadawul, the Saudi stock index, which is significantly weighted in EEM, the emerging market ETF. These are not healthy charts, and rallies provide opportunities for shorting in my opinion. EEM's breakout from its downtrend will be tested as it compresses between the 50 & 150 EMA's. As of right now, it needs to close above $39.20 to invalidate a daily Head & Shoulders pattern.
AMEX:EEMShort
by sdeutsch95
My thoughts for this week 31 January 2023US This week will be a fairly exciting to monitor as Interest Rate announcement and Non-Farm Payroll data will be release. Two heavy hitting news that is very key to understanding further trends in the markets, especially on DXY. Through entire January 2023, DXY is consolidating steadily and holding ground around 101.500 area. Could this week’s high impact news finally get DXY out of consolidation? We shall see. However, we know that Federal Reserve will be raising rates again by 25 basis points, which mainstream news outlets seem to be mentioning. With this data, theoretically, if rates go up, it is bullish for the currency and vice versa. Another thing to consider is that, Japan and China are still dumping US Treasuries/Bonds and many other countries are attempting to de-dollarize. Further add to the fuel is US’s national debt ceiling that has been breached last week. These 2 scenarios are very bad for the US economy. How much of bullishness will 25 basis point increase bring about? So far, from the last two, Federal Fund Rate announcement (Nov & Dec 2022), we see that DXY declined even with 50 basis points hike. Could history repeat again? Perhaps DXY can reclaim 102.500 – 103.000 but I do not think whole-heartedly that it will give 105.000 a go. China With China’s re-opening, there is definitely positivity circling the global markets. China’s GDP growth was reported up by 3% for the year 2022, higher than expected rate of 2.8% but yet still fell short of March’s target of 5.5%. The sign of growth, though little, is still a sign of improvement. Considering after months’ long Zero Covid policy and geopolitical tension with the West, problematic real estate sector, this slight improvement definitely have greater volume to it than just the number. We cannot take our eyes away from the long term end goal of China, which is to be the next reserve currency of the world. Collaboration with some powerful nations e.g. Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India etc via BRICS+ bloc, brings Xi Jin Ping’s path to dominance one step closer day by day. Recently, Saudi Arabia also made public about their consideration of non-US Dollar for Oil trade. Gold continues to be horded by China, as well as Russia and major central banks of the world, just goes to prove the level skepticism towards the greenback. Just my thoughts. Trader Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy Malaysia
TVC:DXY
by XeroAcademy
GSUN | A Great Entry Point | I Bought the DipGolden Sun Education Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides education and management services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, primary and secondary school services, tutoring, and other Services. The company offers private school educational and foreign language tutorials, and other education training management services. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
NASDAQ:GSUNLong
by DivergenceSeeker
7
Google vs Apple; How Android will kill Apple.Fact; - Apple (iPhone, etc.) is entirely (100%) sourced from China; - Google (Android) is 100% sourced from S. Korea & Japan. 1) Considering the abject population collapse - and massive DE-industralization!! - of China, it will take YEARS for Apple to relocate it's entire supply chain. (To N. America?) E.g. Apple will be lucky to bring out a new iPhone every other year - even that being overly optimistic. 2) Barring an outright armed conflict between S. Korea and Japan (very unlikely) Google's supply chain should be just fine, mostly unaffected by the coming Chinese de-urbanization and de-industrialization. (... which China will be forced to endure in order to feed the *** 800 million Chinese ***, which is what will be left in that country, by 2035.) When will this purported Chinese population collapse and total de-industrialization begin?? ... You are in it! (It is well worth to pay attention to it because it will (continue to) be spectacular!!) Simultaneously, the technical picture is also very favorable for the upside, in this spread.
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by Nemo_Confidat
2
USDCNH to 6.66? 😈Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free. After a long run up... the USDCNH probably found the top for a while. Price formed Head and Shoulders 🤷and broke the Uptrendline and then also the Neckline @ 7.01, backtested it and got rejected. Also there is bear flag in play with target 6.686, we have just broken out of it's consolidation phase: So in my eyes a downtrend has been established and I think there is chance for run to 6.66 . STOPLOSS (SL) : Right Shoulder @ 7.26 TARGET (TP) : H&S target projection @ 6.66 INVALIDATION : when SL level hit Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Short
by bizmark
4
Copper Turning Red HotWhen China sneezes, commodities catch cold. Developments in China over the last quarter around zero COVID have paved the path to re-opening, which has a substantial impact on lives, livelihoods, and commodity prices. China re-opening plus a raft of measures to spur the Chinese real estate sector sets the backdrop for copper prices to be bullish. This case study illustrates that a long position in CME Copper Futures with an entry at 3.95 and a target of 4.326 supported by a stop loss at 3.614 would yield a reward to risk ratio of 1.2. On 14th November, we published – Copper Melting? , in which we were short term bearish while staying long term bullish on Copper. Our call then turned out correct with prices tanking in November but given the large-scale policy shifts in China now, we believe prices are well supported and set to rise. RECOVERY FROM COVID LOCKDOWNS Bounce-back from Covid lockdowns is visibly observed in various China-centric asset classes and currency. The chart below shows that since last September, Iron Ore has spiked 19% & Copper is up 12% buoyed by real estate recovery. COVID-19 STILL LINGERS THREE YEARS ON It is 2023, but COVID-19 still lingers. Covid lockdown hurts. Weak growth and stunted consumer confidence is evident from the chart below. Consumer confidence is at its lowest in 10 years. Based on data compiled by Bloomberg, rebound in subway traffic in key cities suggests that infections might have peaked. While the situation is still challenging for many, conditions in China might have passed peak Covid, suggesting shift in sentiments for the better. MEASURES TO HELP CHINESE REAL ESTATE SECTOR In addressing sagging consumer confidence and struggling real estate market, Beijing has embarked on pro-growth policy stance with accelerated reopening plans, plus a range of support measures for the real estate sector. The measures to boost property market include (1) easing of lending restrictions, (2) lowering of mortgage rates, (3) capping real estate brokerage commissions, (4) dialing back on “three red-lines” lending policy for banks, (5) reducing down payment ratios for first time buyers, (6) removing minimum lending rates for first time purchases, (7) resuming approvals for private equity funds to raise money to invest in residential real estate, and, (8) strengthening of “too-big-to-fail” property developers. Phased rollout of these measures is starting to have a positive impact. Since lows touched in November, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) China Real Estate Developers Index is up 62%. IRON ORE AND COPPER ARE AMONG THE FIRST TO BENEFIT FROM SUPPORT MEASURES A booming real estate sector directly benefits Iron Ore and Copper. Sea-borne Iron Ore - majority of which is imported into China has been buoyant and is anticipated to rebound to $130/ton this quarter according to Citi. Over the past month, iron ore prices have also moved up with reopening hopes boosting sentiment. Bloomberg reported late last week that China plans to tighten the supervision on iron ore pricing to curtail speculations, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its WeChat page. The Bullish sentiment in the real estate sector is showing up in buoyant copper prices. Unfettered by regulatory actions on price rise, copper has stayed more resilient than iron ore highlighting its relative strength. SPECIFIC EQUITY MARKET SECTOR INDICES INDICATING MARKET BOUYANCY Shares of mainland Chinese property developers shot up last week on talks that the authorities plan to extend supportive measures for “good-quality developers”. The chart above shows a bullish cup and handle formation on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Real Estate Index that points to an imminent recovery in the sector. SSE Real Estate Index spiked 21% since November 1st while the SSE Transportation Index (chart below) has climbed just 3.6% during the same period. SIGNS OF BULLISHNESS IN COPPER TECHNICAL SIGNALS Copper’s short-term moving average is approaching the long-term moving average. A cross could point to the start of a rally. Copper’s Bollinger bands have started to narrow pointing to a narrowing range which suggests that a breakout from the range. Copper prices cooled off in November before recovering, this price action also displays a bullish cup and handle formation as prices have remained range-bound post-recovery. Prices hovering at these levels despite softer volumes suggests that prices have found support. INSIGHTS IMPLIED FROM OPEN INTEREST AND OPTIONS MARKETS POINTS TO EARLY SIGNS OF BULLISHNESS Based on the Commitment of Traders Report, over the past 12 weeks, funds, institutional investors, and managed money have reduced their net short positions in copper futures by a striking 71%. Meanwhile, during the same period, small speculators while individually small but collectively non-trivial have shifted from net short positions of -1,004 lots to net long of +4,838 lots. The put-call ratio on CME Copper Options is 0.57, a sign that participants are bullish on the prospects of copper price. TRADE SET-UP Each long position in micro copper futures (February 2023) provides exposure to 2,500 pounds of copper. Entry: 3.950 Target: 4.326 Stop Loss: 3.614 Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.20 Profit at Target: $940 Loss at Stop Loss: $840 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
3
Is WTI Crude Set to ReboundIn this week’s case study, we analyse a long position on Micro WTI Crude Futures (February) with a potential target of $82.30/barrel and a stop loss at $67/barrel, yielding a reward to risk ratio of 1.15. Last week, we delivered a case study with a short position on WTI Crude Oil futures with entry at $77.80/barrel and exit at $73.65/barrel. This worked as planned with the target price being triggered within two days. Now with price trading at $74.10/barrel and strong support between $67-$72/barrel, this case study argues that this presents an interesting opportunity to enter into a long position in WTI Crude Oil futures. Bolstered by demand from China which is expected to recover, a long position in Crude Oil Futures provides us hedge in the medium-long term against limited downside risk. Replenishment of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (S PR) The Biden administration is reported to replenish its S PR between the price range of $67-$72/barrel. WTI Crude is currently trading in that price range which could trigger S PR replenishment. More than 200 million barrels has been drawn down to supplement the demand for US crude oil amid high international prices. However, it is worth noting that according to the US Department of Energy, there are no active purchase offers yet. China Easing COVID Curbs Last week, China announced the most significant relaxation of its COVID curbs since the pandemic first erupted three years ago. Rules covering quarantine times, movement of people, and lockdown as well as testing were eased in the country. Nevertheless, COVID cases in China remain high. Although official numbers have fallen to a monthly low, straining medical infrastructure points to high level of infected cases. China is the second largest consumer of Crude Oil in the world, although they have largely been buying Russian Crude Oil at a discount, as demand increases, it will likely spill over into purchases of international oil as well impacting prices of Crude Oil. Fed Rate Decision All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due on December 14th. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 75% probability of a 50-bps (0.5%) rate hike at this meeting, slowing from the record 75-bps rate hikes announced at previous four meetings. Over the past two weeks, economic data points to limited impact of Fed rate hikes leading to fears that the Fed may continue with 75-bps rate hike. Tanker Delays Over the past week, several tankers carrying Russian crude oil were halted at the Turkish strait due to confusion surrounding the G7’s imposed sanctions on Russian crude tanker insuranc e. As of Monday, this jam started to be cleared. However according to a Bloomberg report, some 12 tankers had still not submitted the necessary documents confirming insu rance liabilities. As these delays might take more time to resolve, this might positively impact demand for WTI Crude Oil. EIA Short Term Energy Outlook The US Energy Information Administration (E IA) released its short-term energy outlook last week in which they stated that refinery utilization for 2023 was expected to remain at a five-year high. Although this will lead to lower prices for distillate and other petroleum products, it ensures high demand for WTI Crude leading to a strong price support. Technical Signals from the COT Report WTI Crude is currently trading at $70.67/barrel, which is right below its S1 support according to the Pivot indicator which stands at $71.48/barrel. The range of $67-72 provides strong support as mentioned before. Both RSI and Stochastic indicators point to oversold which could indicate a recovery in the short term. In the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from December 6th, we can see that money moved out of swap positions to directional positions. Long positions held by managed money increased sharply by 11.9%. Overall long position OI increased by 4.4%. Still, this was on par with the increase in short position OI which also increased by 4.4%. Short OI saw producer positions increase far more than long OI. Trade Setup CME’s NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude oil. They have a maintenance margin of $750 at the time of writing and provide a cost-efficient way of getting exposures to the movements in Crude Oil prices. Long Position on CME NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures – February 2023 Contract Entry: $74.10/barrel Take Profit Target 1: $85.00/barrel Take Profit Target 2: $82.30/barrel Stop Loss: $67.00/barrel Establishing a long position on Micro WTI Futures (February) with an entry price of $74.10/barrel with a potential take profit target of $82.3 could provide exposure to a recovery in a WTI crude prices. This would yield 109.3% returns or $820. A stop loss at $67.0/barrel could protect against a further downward move. This is placed at the lower end of the expected range of S PR replenishment which is expected to provide strong support. The stop loss, if triggered, would lead to a loss of $710 or 94.6%, providing a reward risk ratio of 1.15. Alternatively, holding the position until the second target of $85/barrel would yield $1,090 in profit or 145.3%. CME’s full-size NYMEX WTI futures provide exposure to 1,000 barrels of WTI crude with a maintenance margin of $7,300 at the time of writing and provide improved liquidity in case of larger positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
NYMEX:CL2!Long
by mintdotfinance
AUD/USD rises as inflation jumpsThe Australian dollar has extended its rally with solid gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7080, up 0.51%. RBA policy makers are no doubt having a bad day at the office, as Australia's inflation climbed sharply in the fourth quarter. CPI rose to 8.4%, up from 7.3% in Q3 and above the consensus of 7.7%. The hot inflation report will douse hopes that inflation has peaked and there's little doubt that the RBA will have to continue raising rates. The markets had priced in a peak rate of 3.6%, but with the cash rate currently at 3.1% and more rate hikes on the way, it appears that the market is underestimating the terminal rate. The inflation release boosted the Australian dollar around 1% and to a five-month high after the CPI report, but the Aussie has pared much of those gains. The outlook for the Aussie is looking brighter for several reasons. The RBA will almost certainly continue raising rates over the next several months, commodity prices are strong and China's reopening will increase demand for Australian exports. There were no major releases out of the US today, but Thursday has a crowded data calendar, with GDP, durable goods and new home sales. GDP is expected to slow to 2.8%, down from 3.2% in Q3 but still respectable. On Wednesday, US PMIs pointed to a decline in the manufacturing and services sectors, pointing to cracks in the US economy as high rates have dampened economic growth. The US dollar has been under pressure as soft US numbers have increased expectations that the Fed will ease up on rate policy due to the slowing economy. A stronger-than-expected GDP would likely provide the US dollar with a much-needed boost, while a soft GDP reading should send the US dollar lower. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7064. Above, there is resistance at 0.7160 0.6968 and 0.6872 are providing support
by OANDA
JICPT|DXY is on the verge of rebound on the weeklyHello everyone. Dollar index has retreated from the high around 114 created in late September when investors expected inflation would be cooling soon. To make it clear, I also inserted U.S core CPI year-over-year data on the weekly chart. You can refer to the purple line. Obviously, The dollar index moved in line with the CPI data. Both topped around the same time. When we looked at the DXY rising angle, we can see it accelerated to the upside since March 16, 2022, when Fed raised interest rate for the first time since the pandemic by 25bps. The main driving force behind the move is inflation. So what's next after the Dollar index took a dive of 50%. From my point of view, the index may held above 100 for a while(relative strong) until inflation is confirmed to go back to the 2% target. That may happen in the H2 2023. The reasons are below: 1. After the dramatic move, sellers need to take a rest around key zones(fib 50-61.8%) 2. Dollar index has been over sold. 3. 100 combined with a strong demand zone is likely to prevent it from further drop. If I'm right, there will be short opportunities for gold, and other currencies, e.g., EUR. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
INDEX:DXYLong
by JICPT