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USDCNH to 6.66? 😈Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free. After a long run up... the USDCNH probably found the top for a while. Price formed Head and Shoulders 🤷and broke the Uptrendline and then also the Neckline @ 7.01, backtested it and got rejected. Also there is bear flag in play with target 6.686, we have just broken out of it's consolidation phase: So in my eyes a downtrend has been established and I think there is chance for run to 6.66 . STOPLOSS (SL) : Right Shoulder @ 7.26 TARGET (TP) : H&S target projection @ 6.66 INVALIDATION : when SL level hit Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Short
by bizmark
4
Copper Turning Red HotWhen China sneezes, commodities catch cold. Developments in China over the last quarter around zero COVID have paved the path to re-opening, which has a substantial impact on lives, livelihoods, and commodity prices. China re-opening plus a raft of measures to spur the Chinese real estate sector sets the backdrop for copper prices to be bullish. This case study illustrates that a long position in CME Copper Futures with an entry at 3.95 and a target of 4.326 supported by a stop loss at 3.614 would yield a reward to risk ratio of 1.2. On 14th November, we published – Copper Melting? , in which we were short term bearish while staying long term bullish on Copper. Our call then turned out correct with prices tanking in November but given the large-scale policy shifts in China now, we believe prices are well supported and set to rise. RECOVERY FROM COVID LOCKDOWNS Bounce-back from Covid lockdowns is visibly observed in various China-centric asset classes and currency. The chart below shows that since last September, Iron Ore has spiked 19% & Copper is up 12% buoyed by real estate recovery. COVID-19 STILL LINGERS THREE YEARS ON It is 2023, but COVID-19 still lingers. Covid lockdown hurts. Weak growth and stunted consumer confidence is evident from the chart below. Consumer confidence is at its lowest in 10 years. Based on data compiled by Bloomberg, rebound in subway traffic in key cities suggests that infections might have peaked. While the situation is still challenging for many, conditions in China might have passed peak Covid, suggesting shift in sentiments for the better. MEASURES TO HELP CHINESE REAL ESTATE SECTOR In addressing sagging consumer confidence and struggling real estate market, Beijing has embarked on pro-growth policy stance with accelerated reopening plans, plus a range of support measures for the real estate sector. The measures to boost property market include (1) easing of lending restrictions, (2) lowering of mortgage rates, (3) capping real estate brokerage commissions, (4) dialing back on “three red-lines” lending policy for banks, (5) reducing down payment ratios for first time buyers, (6) removing minimum lending rates for first time purchases, (7) resuming approvals for private equity funds to raise money to invest in residential real estate, and, (8) strengthening of “too-big-to-fail” property developers. Phased rollout of these measures is starting to have a positive impact. Since lows touched in November, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) China Real Estate Developers Index is up 62%. IRON ORE AND COPPER ARE AMONG THE FIRST TO BENEFIT FROM SUPPORT MEASURES A booming real estate sector directly benefits Iron Ore and Copper. Sea-borne Iron Ore - majority of which is imported into China has been buoyant and is anticipated to rebound to $130/ton this quarter according to Citi. Over the past month, iron ore prices have also moved up with reopening hopes boosting sentiment. Bloomberg reported late last week that China plans to tighten the supervision on iron ore pricing to curtail speculations, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its WeChat page. The Bullish sentiment in the real estate sector is showing up in buoyant copper prices. Unfettered by regulatory actions on price rise, copper has stayed more resilient than iron ore highlighting its relative strength. SPECIFIC EQUITY MARKET SECTOR INDICES INDICATING MARKET BOUYANCY Shares of mainland Chinese property developers shot up last week on talks that the authorities plan to extend supportive measures for “good-quality developers”. The chart above shows a bullish cup and handle formation on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Real Estate Index that points to an imminent recovery in the sector. SSE Real Estate Index spiked 21% since November 1st while the SSE Transportation Index (chart below) has climbed just 3.6% during the same period. SIGNS OF BULLISHNESS IN COPPER TECHNICAL SIGNALS Copper’s short-term moving average is approaching the long-term moving average. A cross could point to the start of a rally. Copper’s Bollinger bands have started to narrow pointing to a narrowing range which suggests that a breakout from the range. Copper prices cooled off in November before recovering, this price action also displays a bullish cup and handle formation as prices have remained range-bound post-recovery. Prices hovering at these levels despite softer volumes suggests that prices have found support. INSIGHTS IMPLIED FROM OPEN INTEREST AND OPTIONS MARKETS POINTS TO EARLY SIGNS OF BULLISHNESS Based on the Commitment of Traders Report, over the past 12 weeks, funds, institutional investors, and managed money have reduced their net short positions in copper futures by a striking 71%. Meanwhile, during the same period, small speculators while individually small but collectively non-trivial have shifted from net short positions of -1,004 lots to net long of +4,838 lots. The put-call ratio on CME Copper Options is 0.57, a sign that participants are bullish on the prospects of copper price. TRADE SET-UP Each long position in micro copper futures (February 2023) provides exposure to 2,500 pounds of copper. Entry: 3.950 Target: 4.326 Stop Loss: 3.614 Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.20 Profit at Target: $940 Loss at Stop Loss: $840 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
3
Is WTI Crude Set to ReboundIn this week’s case study, we analyse a long position on Micro WTI Crude Futures (February) with a potential target of $82.30/barrel and a stop loss at $67/barrel, yielding a reward to risk ratio of 1.15. Last week, we delivered a case study with a short position on WTI Crude Oil futures with entry at $77.80/barrel and exit at $73.65/barrel. This worked as planned with the target price being triggered within two days. Now with price trading at $74.10/barrel and strong support between $67-$72/barrel, this case study argues that this presents an interesting opportunity to enter into a long position in WTI Crude Oil futures. Bolstered by demand from China which is expected to recover, a long position in Crude Oil Futures provides us hedge in the medium-long term against limited downside risk. Replenishment of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (S PR) The Biden administration is reported to replenish its S PR between the price range of $67-$72/barrel. WTI Crude is currently trading in that price range which could trigger S PR replenishment. More than 200 million barrels has been drawn down to supplement the demand for US crude oil amid high international prices. However, it is worth noting that according to the US Department of Energy, there are no active purchase offers yet. China Easing COVID Curbs Last week, China announced the most significant relaxation of its COVID curbs since the pandemic first erupted three years ago. Rules covering quarantine times, movement of people, and lockdown as well as testing were eased in the country. Nevertheless, COVID cases in China remain high. Although official numbers have fallen to a monthly low, straining medical infrastructure points to high level of infected cases. China is the second largest consumer of Crude Oil in the world, although they have largely been buying Russian Crude Oil at a discount, as demand increases, it will likely spill over into purchases of international oil as well impacting prices of Crude Oil. Fed Rate Decision All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due on December 14th. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 75% probability of a 50-bps (0.5%) rate hike at this meeting, slowing from the record 75-bps rate hikes announced at previous four meetings. Over the past two weeks, economic data points to limited impact of Fed rate hikes leading to fears that the Fed may continue with 75-bps rate hike. Tanker Delays Over the past week, several tankers carrying Russian crude oil were halted at the Turkish strait due to confusion surrounding the G7’s imposed sanctions on Russian crude tanker insuranc e. As of Monday, this jam started to be cleared. However according to a Bloomberg report, some 12 tankers had still not submitted the necessary documents confirming insu rance liabilities. As these delays might take more time to resolve, this might positively impact demand for WTI Crude Oil. EIA Short Term Energy Outlook The US Energy Information Administration (E IA) released its short-term energy outlook last week in which they stated that refinery utilization for 2023 was expected to remain at a five-year high. Although this will lead to lower prices for distillate and other petroleum products, it ensures high demand for WTI Crude leading to a strong price support. Technical Signals from the COT Report WTI Crude is currently trading at $70.67/barrel, which is right below its S1 support according to the Pivot indicator which stands at $71.48/barrel. The range of $67-72 provides strong support as mentioned before. Both RSI and Stochastic indicators point to oversold which could indicate a recovery in the short term. In the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from December 6th, we can see that money moved out of swap positions to directional positions. Long positions held by managed money increased sharply by 11.9%. Overall long position OI increased by 4.4%. Still, this was on par with the increase in short position OI which also increased by 4.4%. Short OI saw producer positions increase far more than long OI. Trade Setup CME’s NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude oil. They have a maintenance margin of $750 at the time of writing and provide a cost-efficient way of getting exposures to the movements in Crude Oil prices. Long Position on CME NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Futures – February 2023 Contract Entry: $74.10/barrel Take Profit Target 1: $85.00/barrel Take Profit Target 2: $82.30/barrel Stop Loss: $67.00/barrel Establishing a long position on Micro WTI Futures (February) with an entry price of $74.10/barrel with a potential take profit target of $82.3 could provide exposure to a recovery in a WTI crude prices. This would yield 109.3% returns or $820. A stop loss at $67.0/barrel could protect against a further downward move. This is placed at the lower end of the expected range of S PR replenishment which is expected to provide strong support. The stop loss, if triggered, would lead to a loss of $710 or 94.6%, providing a reward risk ratio of 1.15. Alternatively, holding the position until the second target of $85/barrel would yield $1,090 in profit or 145.3%. CME’s full-size NYMEX WTI futures provide exposure to 1,000 barrels of WTI crude with a maintenance margin of $7,300 at the time of writing and provide improved liquidity in case of larger positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
NYMEX:CL2!Long
by mintdotfinance
AUD/USD rises as inflation jumpsThe Australian dollar has extended its rally with solid gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7080, up 0.51%. RBA policy makers are no doubt having a bad day at the office, as Australia's inflation climbed sharply in the fourth quarter. CPI rose to 8.4%, up from 7.3% in Q3 and above the consensus of 7.7%. The hot inflation report will douse hopes that inflation has peaked and there's little doubt that the RBA will have to continue raising rates. The markets had priced in a peak rate of 3.6%, but with the cash rate currently at 3.1% and more rate hikes on the way, it appears that the market is underestimating the terminal rate. The inflation release boosted the Australian dollar around 1% and to a five-month high after the CPI report, but the Aussie has pared much of those gains. The outlook for the Aussie is looking brighter for several reasons. The RBA will almost certainly continue raising rates over the next several months, commodity prices are strong and China's reopening will increase demand for Australian exports. There were no major releases out of the US today, but Thursday has a crowded data calendar, with GDP, durable goods and new home sales. GDP is expected to slow to 2.8%, down from 3.2% in Q3 but still respectable. On Wednesday, US PMIs pointed to a decline in the manufacturing and services sectors, pointing to cracks in the US economy as high rates have dampened economic growth. The US dollar has been under pressure as soft US numbers have increased expectations that the Fed will ease up on rate policy due to the slowing economy. A stronger-than-expected GDP would likely provide the US dollar with a much-needed boost, while a soft GDP reading should send the US dollar lower. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7064. Above, there is resistance at 0.7160 0.6968 and 0.6872 are providing support
by OANDA
JICPT|DXY is on the verge of rebound on the weeklyHello everyone. Dollar index has retreated from the high around 114 created in late September when investors expected inflation would be cooling soon. To make it clear, I also inserted U.S core CPI year-over-year data on the weekly chart. You can refer to the purple line. Obviously, The dollar index moved in line with the CPI data. Both topped around the same time. When we looked at the DXY rising angle, we can see it accelerated to the upside since March 16, 2022, when Fed raised interest rate for the first time since the pandemic by 25bps. The main driving force behind the move is inflation. So what's next after the Dollar index took a dive of 50%. From my point of view, the index may held above 100 for a while(relative strong) until inflation is confirmed to go back to the 2% target. That may happen in the H2 2023. The reasons are below: 1. After the dramatic move, sellers need to take a rest around key zones(fib 50-61.8%) 2. Dollar index has been over sold. 3. 100 combined with a strong demand zone is likely to prevent it from further drop. If I'm right, there will be short opportunities for gold, and other currencies, e.g., EUR. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
INDEX:DXYLong
by JICPT
Tracking the China reopening basket: HSI, Copper, KRW and AUDSince early November, when China initially hinted at lifting statewide Covid restrictions, a basket tracking assets linked to the Chinese reopening story has surged by 22%. In the last 11 weeks, the China reopening basket, which is equally weighted with copper , Korean won , Australian dollar , and the Hang Seng index , has outperformed a global stock market (MSCI ACWI index) benchmark considerably. The China reopening portfolio has gained 22.3% versus a 6.8% gain of the MSCI All-Country World index since November 1st. Because the total volatility of the China reopening basket has been lower (19.2% compared to 21.8%), the Sharpe ratio has been even more positively skewed (9.61 vs 1.89). The Hang Seng index, which has climbed by 45% since November, has been the portfolio's best contributor with a weighted return of 11%, followed by copper with a weighted return of 5.3%.
NASDAQ:ACWI
by Capitalcom
2
EBON | Oversold Crypto Play | BounceEbang International Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the research, design, and development of application-specific integrated circuit chips and manufacture of Bitcoin mining machines under the Ebit brand in China, the United States, Hong Kong, and internationally. It also provides mining machine hosting services that enable customers to operate mining machines remotely; and routine maintenance services, as well as engages in the development of proprietary cryptocurrency exchange platform. In addition, the company offers fiber-optic communication access devices, including multiprotocol label switching fiber-optic access network devices, multi-service access platform integrated business access devices, and wavelength-division multiplexing fiber-optic devices; and enterprise convergent terminal products, which consists gigabit passive optical network, enterprise cloud gateway devices, industrial Internet of Things access devices, and business enterprise smart wireless access devices. It serves the blockchain and telecommunications industries. The company also provides foreign exchange trading and digital currency transfer services, as well as deals in virtual currencies. It sells its blockchain products directly, as well as through its website; and telecommunication products under the EBANG brand name primarily through supplier contracts. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.
NASDAQ:EBONLong
by DivergenceSeeker
3
YINN China Leveraged 3x Bull Setting Up Reversal ShortYINN the China Bull EFT has uptrended dramatically of late however it is far extended above its moving averages while the RSI indicator shows decreasing strength as a divergence. Price rise is hitting the resistance of the POC line of the intermediate-term volume profile where sellers will step in and invoke selling pressure in a triple top making the resistance strong. I expect it to drop now and perhaps dramatically,. Inversely the YANG ETF, a bearish leveraged fund will rise. By a Fibonacci analysis, a 15% drop is expected before another inflection. Accordingly, I would set up a stop loss of 3-5% on the short swing trade setup .
AMEX:YINNShort
by AwesomeAvani
Hang Seng: Just do it 💪The chinese Index isn't kidding around when it comes to fulfilling those New Year's resolutions and is using all its power to climb all the way North. We're expecting the Hang Seng to rise further into the turquoise target zone to complete the red wave (3). After completion, the course should fall back into a correction in order to finish the red wave (3). In case the Hang Seng can't carry on with its recent upwards pulses, we're expecting it to drop below the support line at 18 917 points. This would indicate the activation of our alternative scenario with a chance of 27%.
HKEX:HSI1!
by MarketIntel
C stands for China - updateHang Seng index had a perfect backtest of monthy trendline, I think it's a short here and if you look at the news, the fundamental reasons are there as well. Common targets for the C wave would be equal to the previous A wave (around 12k) or, if things get really ugly 1.272 of A - which would be around 6500. Both areas have strong horizontal support. The Monthly BB was the area for the recent bounce (not shown), but the Monthly Slow Stochastic will likely close with an embedded bearish reading.
TVC:HSIShort
by the_sunship
1
The Chinese yuan is the new world currency.The forecast that will probably come true not in 10 years, but this year, the yuan will begin to become the world's currency. Currently it only accounts for a few percent of world trade, but it will account for tens of percent. In this scenario China must stop devaluing the currency to please its exporters and overseas partners. Create an infrastructure parallel to the SWIFT system. I assume that this will be a digital yuan for international transactions. Whether there will be a correlation with the current fully fiat yuan - I can't say yet.
Short
by IgorFlow
3