Get started

China

The 2023 trader playbook - the 5 biggest themes for the yearWith next week’s US CPI print and FOMC meeting offering the potential for further market volatility, it feels like these landmines are a fitting end to an incredibly eventful 2022. We look back at the big themes that have driven cross-asset volatility and the conditions through which we’ve all had to adapt our trading – these include persistently high inflation, a worrying spike in the cost of living and aggressive rate hikes – yet resilient growth. We can also look at more regional-focused issues – a UK gilt tantrum driven by the Truss govt’s unfunded mini-budget, the invasion of Ukraine, the MOF/BoJ intervening to buy JPY and China’s Covid Zero policy. The culmination of these factors created huge cross-asset volatility, decade-long market regime changes and lasting trending conditions. Looking into 2023 Markets live in the future, and we look forward to the key themes that could cause volatility throughout 2023 – what’s important is not just to fully note these macro factors, but to understand the trigger points that offer a higher conviction of when to express the themes – taking this further, knowing the markets/instruments and strategies to express the theme is obviously advantageous. These themes could alter market volatility, range expansion and market structure - so regardless of whether you’re purely automated or discretionary, it can pay to be aware. While there are many more, these are five potential themes that I am looking at closely for 2023 that if triggered would affect the markets we trade. 1 - High inflation worries morph into growth concerns and a higher probability of a recession US and global inflation in decline • Market pricing (i.e. the inflation ‘fixings’ market) of future inflation shows US CPI inflation expected to fall to around 3% by year-end • US M2 money supply has fallen from 26% to 1.3% - US headline CPI typically lags by 16 months • Manufacturing PMI delivery-lead times and supply chain data suggest inflation falls hard in 2023 • Unit labour costs falling to 2.1% Growth – while the consensus from economists is that the US economy narrowly avoids a recession, and EPS expectations have not been revised down to reflect recessionary conditions - the markets see a higher probability of this outcome – I back the markets, where we see: • All parts of the US yield curve are inverted – US 2s vs 10s are the most inverted since 1981 • The US leading index (measures 10 key economic indicators) has turned negative and falling fast – this has an exemplary record of predicting US recessions • Comments from the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and BoA warning of tougher times ahead Themes to trade as we price in a recession • Consensus EPS expectations are cut by around 20% (from the highs), in turn, lifting PE multiples – traders will assess the trade-off between earnings downgrades vs a lower discount rate • Steeper yield curves are a trigger – while now is not the time to put on curve steepeners, when short-dated US Treasury bond yields do fall/outperform, we’ll see a steeper yield curve – this could be the trigger for a sharp equity rally, led by financials • As the US data deteriorates, we will likely see equity market drawdown, US treasury buying and selling of risk FX - it’s when central bankers acknowledge that growth is a greater concern the market will feel validated in its pricing of rate cuts – it’s here we see a risk rebound, broad USD selling and housing + lumber outperforming • As bond yields fall, we should see solid outperformance from the JPY and CHF and EM assets • USD initially works selectively vs global FX, but then reverses as conviction of the Fed cutting impacts and traders look ahead to a trough in the global growth slowdown • Gold and silver rally hard as a hedge vs recession risk 2 - Central bank policy – assessing the potential for rate cuts • The base case is rate hikes finish in Q1 23, followed by a pause – we then explore the possibility of rate cuts through Q4 23 – the Fed are clearly data dependent, so trends in the US (and global) data through Q2 will be key to markets • Since 1995 there have been five occasions when the Fed has moved from hikes to rate cuts – the average time it takes to play out is 10.6 months (the longest period being 18 months, the shortest being 5 months) • G7 balance sheet reduction and liquidity drain - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is a big unknown. Federal Reserve liabilities are expected to fall towards $2.5t, a level where the market is concerned about the scarcity of reserves – traders will start to pay attention to the Fed funds effective – interest earned on excess reserves (IOER) spread for signs of scarcity and concerns that the repo market may be impacted and need support. • It’s not just the Fed but the ECB and BoE (and others) will be reducing their balance sheets. 3 - China reopening and China's market outperformance We’ve already seen a plethora of measures announced and Chinese markets have rallied hard – China is the elephant in the room when it comes to the global growth outlook for 2023 – a weak 1H23 seems likely but this will then followed by far stronger growth in 2H23 – after a poor 2022, Chinese assets could really outperform in 2023 • Long HK50 / short NAS100 could be a trade to look at if markets de-risk on a higher probability of a US recession 4 - BoJ policy recalibration – time for the JPY to fly BoJ chief Kuroda steps down in April but there are already plans for a review of BoJ policy – it feels inevitable that we’ll see a 25bp lift to the BoJ’s YCC target to 50bp – we’ve already seen signs that Japanese banks/pension funds are moving capital back to Japan to get a more compelling return in the JGB market – but could a major policy change cause tremors in global bond markets and promote significant inflows into the JPY? 5 - Politics & Geopolitics – great for volatility, bad for humanity Obviously one of the most important issues in 2022, not just for markets but humanity - always a hard one for traders to price risk around • China/Taiwan – unlikely to be a 2023 story (hopefully not at all) but one that will come into the headlines periodically • US and European/China relations • Russia/Ukraine – could we hear more constructive signs of a ceasefire? • Russia vs NATO – Putin has already suggested that the risk of a nuclear war has been rising – obviously if this really escalates it has the premise to dominate markets • Given the divided Congress, could we see the US debt ceiling become a market concern? Good luck to all
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
Alibaba - China beneficiary Alibaba - Short Term - We look to Buy at 87.66 (stop at 79.09) Broken out of the wedge formation to the upside. Broken out of the Head and Shoulders formation to the upside. Neckline support is 85.91. The formation has a measured move target of 113.48. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 87.66, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 113.48 and 120.70 Resistance: 94.84 / 104.85 / 120.70 Support: 87.60 / 79.86 / 75.88 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:BABALong
by VantageMarkets
1
HSI/SPY - time to be aware of ChinaKeep in mind this is a monthly chart, so we're looking at years and decades here. This ratio chart of the HANG SENG INDEX divided by SPY is warning of a coming rush by investors into the Chinese markets. The China C wave I posted about may be done (see post attached below). If this falling wedge breaks out we could see a monumental shift towards the Chinese markets in the coming years, possibly spurred by their willingness to relax Covid controls and/or get better vaccines. This is a market mostly ignored by retail investors and that may change soon. The monthly RSI has sharp bullish divergence. The monthly 18ma is sitting at 51.3 as I type today, getting over and holding that on a monthly close would be very bullish for HSI. Good luck!
TVC:HSILong
by the_sunship
3
USDCNH - one of the most important charts in FX markets A key set-up for the radar - we currently see a solid test of the H&S neckline, where a break targets 6.6500 - a move here would be conditional on a moderation in US core CPI (due 13 Dec) and a fed funds terminals rate headed to 4.75% - however, any decline in this cross would lift AUD, NZD and be thematic of outperformance in Chinese equities Price is breaking down and while we typically see less interest in this cross than a G10 FX pair, it's importance in macro markets cant be overstated.
Short
by Pepperstone
AUD/USD storms higherThe Australian dollar has rebounded on Tuesday after a poor start to the week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6737, up 1.28%. What goes down ... can go right back up. This has been the story early this week for the Australian dollar, which tumbled 1.5% on Monday but has recovered most of those losses today. The Australian dollar was hit hard after a weak retail sales report and widespread unrest in China over the country's zero-covid policy. The unrest in China has put a damper on risk appetite, as the result is likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions and dampen domestic spending. Investors may have sensed an opportunity for profit-taking after the massive slide on Monday, which would help explain the rebound today. The Fed doesn't hold a policy meeting for another two weeks, but the Fedspeak blitz, which started after the soft US inflation report sent the markets in a tizzy, continued in earnest on Monday. Fed member Bullard said on Monday the markets could be underestimating the likelihood of higher rates and that the Fed funds rate will have to reach the bottom end of the 5%-7% range in order to curb inflation, which has been more persistent than anticipated. Fed member Williams added that the Fed needed to do more work to tame inflation, which is "far too high". Fed member Brainard, a dove, expressed concern about inflation expectations rising above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed has been aggressive in telegraphing the markets that its rate cycle is far from over, a message we're likely to continue to hear in the coming weeks. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6707. The next resistance line is 0.6829 There is support at 0.6633 and 0.6511
by OANDA
8
Hopes of further easing of China’s Zero-COVID stance...Hopes of further easing of China’s Zero-COVID stance keeps sentiment underpinned The positive risk tone continues to weigh on safe haven currencies, while high betas AUD and NZD lead the majors to the upside. Consequently, AUDJPY continues to test the 93.00 handle to the upside, while AUDUSD continues to grind above the 0.67 handle and NZDUSD above the 0.62 handle. The catalyst behind positive risk tone and main focus among market participants remains hopes for further easing from China regarding its zero-COVID policy. Indeed, RBC simply notes, “people are getting quite excited about some sort of reopening.” Looking ahead, today’s US session will see the focus remain on China and any further headlines surrounding its zero-COVID policy stance. However, Canada will also be in focus as Statistics Canada releases its latest GDP figures.
by thunderpips
5
China A50 set for a corrective bounce?The China A50 has rallied over 13% since the October low and has since retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. An elongated bullish Pinbar formed yesterday which shows strong demand around the bullish engulfing candle and marking a potential swing low within a bullish retracement channel. We are now looking for a break above 12,350 to assume bullish continuation and a move back towards the 13,000 resistance zone. This could be the final move of a 3-wave correction, before it reverts to its bearish trend.
CITYINDEX:CHINAA50CFDLong
by CityIndex
USD/JPY - China jitters propel yen higherAfter strong gains last week, the Japanese yen has extended its gains on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 138.23 in the European session, down 0.67%. China has applied its Covid-zero policy with a heavy hand, but Covid cases continue to rise nonetheless. The mass lockdowns have triggered widespread protests, which some injuries reported. The unrest is likely to exacerbate supply-chain disruptions and dampen domestic demand, which has hurt risk appetite. This has resulted in flows to haven assets, such as the Japanese yen. USD/JPY dropped as much as 1% earlier today, but the dollar has managed to recover some of these losses. The yen also received a boost after Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that the tightening labour market will push wages higher. Kuroda has long insisted that rising inflation has driven by import costs and the weak yen and is transient. Higher wages would indicate that inflation is sustained, which could result in the BoJ making some changes in its ultra-loose policy. After a short trading week in the US due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the markets will have plenty of US events to digest this week. CB Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday, with the November report expected to dip to 100.0, down from 102.5. The key release of the week is nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which could have a major impact on the Fed's decision to raise rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the December 14th meeting. Currently, the likelihood of a 50-bp hike is about 75%, versus 25% for a larger 75-bp increase. Investors are viewing a 50-point move as a dovish pivot, which has been putting pressure on the US dollar. Still, even a 50-bp hike would set a record for yearly rate hikes of 4.25%. There is resistance at 139.82 and 141.58 There is support at 137.39 and 135.63
by OANDA
Supply risks point to higher oil pricesOil prices were whipsawed this week with swings of more than 6%1 after a report from the Wall Street Journal suggested that Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is looking to possibly increase output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). The rumour could have easily been justified by President Biden’s decision to offer sovereign immunity to the Saudi Crown Price Mohammed bin Salman in a civil lawsuit, as geopolitics could influence decisions. However, the Saudi’s shortly denied the report that OPEC+ was not considering an output increase, helping oil prices claw back losses on the day. This makes logical sense, given that OPEC+ reduced its oil production noticeably since the beginning of November, in accordance with its early October decision. The price action on 22nd November goes to show that it takes only a small amount of movement in trades to cause a large price effect in oil. The oil market remains susceptible to further volatility amidst a backdrop of low liquidity into year end. Looking ahead, the oil market remains vulnerable to a number of key events starting with the OPEC+ meeting on Dec 4 followed by the European Union (EU) embargo on Russian oil alongside G-7 plans to launch a price cap on Russian crude sales on Dec 5. Price cap on Russian oil is hardly bearish Expectations are that the G-7 will soon announce the level at which they intend to set the price cap on Russian oil. The latest reports suggest a cap of US Dollar 65-70 per barrel, which would be well above Russia’s cost of production. Russia is already selling its crude at a significant discount, so a cap at these levels would likely have minimal impact on trading and inflict minimal harm to Russia. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has once again made it clear that Russia will not supply crude oil or refined products to countries which follow the G-7 price cap. In fact, oil will either be redirected to those nations who choose to ignore the price cap or Russian output will be reduced. This appears to be more supportive for higher prices. So far, EU diplomats are locked in negotiations over how strict the Russian mechanism should be, after Poland and Greece rejected the proposal. They would prefer to see a cap closer to the cost of production at US$30. EU leaders are now expected to seek a deal at a 15-16 December summit, in follow up to the energy minister meeting this week on 24 November. EU embargo on the import of Russian oil is approaching fast. This comes into effect on 5 December for crude oil and 5 February 2023 for oil products. In the last three months, Russia has remained the largest external supplier of diesel to the EU, delivering 540kbd2. According to IEA estimates, the EU was still importing 1.5mbd of Russian crude oil in October, which corresponded to just under 15% of total EU crude oil imports. In the coming months, the EU will need to find alternative suppliers. Replacing these supplies is not going to be easy. Russia will need to find other buyers leading to further uncertainty on the oil markets. India, Turkey and China have increased their purchases of Russian oil, thereby enabling Russia to continue exporting large quantities of oil. Weak demand dominating sentiment on the oil market Oil prices are down nearly 35% from its peak as sentiment remains dominated by concerns over weaking demand as the global economy enters a recession alongside an unprecedented release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Net speculative positioning in WTI crude oil futures is more than 1-standard deviation below the 5-year average underscoring extreme bearishness on the oil market3. Its worth noting that speculative positioning in oil was on a downtrend prior to the peak in oil prices. That indicates for one investors were probably taking profits on earlier holdings and higher volatility in oil market kept buyers at bay. Although in a severe recession, oil demand can decline sharply, we are anticipating a much shallower recession for both the US and Eurozone economy. In the middle of the year, China’s oil demand was hit severely by lockdown restrictions, with demand falling below April 2020 and 2021 levels by 1-2mbd4. Although their remains uncertainty about China re-opening, we expect oil demand to recover from Q2 2023 onwards and accelerate towards year end. This should help oil demand from China grow in contrast to the prior two years. Conclusion: The oil market still seems structurally undersupplied over the next few years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) assumes by the end of Q1 2023 oil production will be 2mbd lower than prior to the invasion of Ukraine. We expect the Chinese re-opening, Russian supply risk, the end of SPR releases and lower levels of investment in the energy sector to contribute to a tighter oil market in 2023.
NYMEX:CL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
Update on the Chinese YuanA few months ago, I proposed USDCNH/USDCNY consolidating for a bit and then going higher, as such strong moves usually follow through. The Chinese economy looks extremely weak for multiple reasons, and I see no way that the CNH/CNY won't lose much of its value relative to the dollar. Technically it is ready for another strong move higher, and the fact that Pelosi is visiting Taiwan could be the catalyst for a breakout. Of course, I could be wrong, and the market has a pullback first. However, I think that would be a buy-the-dip opportunity. Going down to 6.6 would be a gift, and that's where I'd want to add to my long positions (short CNY). In my opinion, the market will take out the double top at 7.2$ first, maybe pull back, and then move significantly higher. However, my first target is a bit lower because I do some resistance there, as there was a breakdown that was never retested. Regardless of what your target is, the R/R here is tremendous.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
1
The USDCNH/USDCNY move was extraordinaryAs the Chinese economy was slowing even before the lockdowns, the strict lockdowns put a lot more pressure on the CNH/CNY. This created a huge divergence in the policies of the Fed and PBoC, as one was hiking and the other was cutting. For quite some time the USD was going up against most currencies, except the CNY... until one day the market fully reversed and rallied much higher. By looking back to the USDCNH price action over the last decade, we can see that the two times we got such huge rallies, the market initially pulled back, and then went higher. Now when we compare the duration of those rallies, their magnitude and how overbought the market got by using different metrics, they all look fairly similar as a whole. For example the first one from 2015 was longer and slightly larger than the current one, but the initial leg was brutal. The second one from 2018 was the largest and quickest, however the market wasn't that overbought and the move made more 'sense'. Therefore this move has the potential to be just like the previous two. In the short term I could easily see USDCNH trade back to 6.53-6.58, but my long term target is above the 7.2 double top. The same way the double top around 7 broke and the market went to 7.2, I expect the market to go above the 7.2 double top. No idea where could it top, but it is possible that we get a prolonged bull for USDCNH.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
Commodity OutlookRecession may be a red herring for a market fuelled by a supercycle While broad commodities have outperformed most major asset classes year-to-date1, the pressure of rising interest rates, a strong US dollar and fears of several large economies tipping into recession has led to a pull-back since the summer of 2022. In our Market Outlook, we argued that the current negative business cycle pressures on commodities are likely to be temporary and give way to the larger forces pushing the demand for commodities higher and constraining supply of those commodities. Historically, commodities have been a cyclical asset class, generally declining when the business cycle turns negative. But even history illustrates that commodity prices can continue to rise long after a business cycle has turned if fundamentals are supportive. Oil price shocks in the 1970s and 80s are a case in point. Admittedly they are unusual cycles but, today, we are likely to be living in another energy price shock. Energy price shocks continue Since we published our Market Outlook, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner countries (OPEC+) has announced a large cut to oil production from November 2022, amounting to 2 million barrels per day. As we expected in our Outlook, OPEC+ reacted to the price weakness in oil after the summer and sought to raise prices of Brent oil to over US$90/barrel (prices had fallen to US$84/barrel on 26 September 2022, just over a week before the OPEC decision). They have been successful in keeping prices above US$90/barrel since that decision but have laid the groundwork for further cuts by painting a pessimistic picture on demand forecasts (giving the group an excuse to intervene in the market again). Meanwhile, the Ukraine war shows no sign of improving and natural gas supplies into Europe from Russia have fallen to a trickle. The European Union has taken various measures to try to soften the shock. However, we view several of the proposals with scepticism. For example, introducing price caps on natural gas imports could simply divert natural gas to other countries and worsen the energy shortage for the EU. Interfering with price benchmarks, such as the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), could send incorrect pricing signals and lead to overconsumption of energy resulting in additional shortages2. Supply shortages of commodities extend beyond energy A combination of rising energy prices and interest rates have driven many metal smelters to shutter production. High fertiliser prices (petrochemical product) are also constraining crop yields. Looking across the commodity spectrum, all commodities have lower-than-normal levels of inventory. Base metal supply is especially low The inventory of base metals is considerably lower than their respective 5-year averages, yet base metals have seen the largest price declines of all the commodity sub-sectors. The markets are pricing in demand weakness from an economic deceleration. However, demand has not weakened yet. On the other hand, supply is declining fast. Let’s take the example of copper. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG)’s first forecast for 2022 copper balances (demand less supply), cast on October 2021, was for a sizeable surplus of 328 thousand tonnes. Its latest forecast (cast on 19 October 2022) is for a deficit of 328 thousand tonnes in 2022. Judging by historical revisions, their 2023 forecast of a surplus is likely to be revised down. Their initial forecasts tended to assume no production disruptions. Yet, as we have observed this year, production disruptions can be very large. China’s economic deceleration is countered by policy support China’s zero-COVID polices have slowed economic growth and, thus, its demand for commodities. That matters because China is the largest commodity consumer in the world. However, its central bank has been loosening policy and President Xi has called for an ‘all-out effort’ to increase infrastructure spending (and given local governments free rein to raise debt financing to fund these projects). However, the future course of China’s policy will become clearer after we write this blog. At the time of writing (21 October 2022), China's 20th Communist Party Congress is still in process and will wrap up in the coming days. Xi Jinping is poised to clinch his third five-year term in charge of the nation. We expect national security to take a greater role in policy priority than the economy. Commodity supercycle An energy transition and a revitalised global infrastructure spend are likely to drive the demand for commodities significantly higher over the coming years. However, today, we are living in the down-phase of a business cycle. Even though many commodity markets are visibly tight, commodities are not sufficiently pricing the tightness. The Inflation Reduction Act in the US and the Infrastructure Bill are both strong tailwinds for commodity demand. In Europe, the sharp focus on weaning off Russian energy dependency is adding a new urgency to the energy transition, and we expect to see accelerated energy infrastructure plans take place. Conclusion As a headline, economies going into recession doesn’t inspire huge confidence in a commodity rebound. However, history does suggest that an economic slowdown combined with high inflation has been associated with positive commodity and gold performance. The energy price shock has set off a vicious circle of supply contraction from metals, fertilisers, and other energy intensive commodities. The energy transition and infrastructure led supercycle remains in play even if short-term business cycle phenomena dictate headlines today. As we emerge from this phase of the business cycle, we may find commodity markets extraordinarily tight.
CBOT:AW1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Recycling Batteries will be a Big Focus in the Energy TransitionThose of us following the markets in 2022 have tended to hear certain words again and again: Supply chains Energy shortage Inflation Renewable energy metals We need energy. We want to transition from significant emissions of greenhouse gases towards more sustainable, climate-neutral sources of energy. It is difficult to foresee the demand for batteries dropping at any point in the near future. But, there is a problem. Redwood Materials, a company that is focusing on battery recycling, articulates it very clearly in the title of Figure 1 and then in their infographic. The COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the fact that many things have built towards highly globalised supply chains. Batteries are a critical example, and securing supply is a topic that many regions are thinking about today. A circular economy? Intuitively, recycling battery metals makes a lot of sense. Instead of constantly sourcing more raw nickel, cobalt, lithium etc., it would be more efficient to make use of the existing stock of metals already in use in various physical products. The map in Figure 1 also makes another important point—the specific metals used in the manufacture of batteries are not evenly dispersed across the globe. Certain countries and regions have copious amounts, while others don’t have any. It may be the case that we are early, and this is sometimes an issue in thematic equity investing. The concept and idea might be clear but getting the timing of the possible take-off can be tricky. It is simple to picture the idea of electric vehicles (EVs) ending their useful lives and heading to the scrap yard, like any other vehicle. However, we are still early in terms of EV adoption, so we don’t have EVs at scale heading to the scrap yard at the end of their usable lives. That day will come, but not immediately. This is important to understand, in that it tells us that the materials being recycled are not expected to be the actual batteries that were used for multiple years in an EV. Rather, the inputs into recycling will likely be scrap material from the increasing number of gigafactories coming online. This scrap could account for 78% of the pool of recyclable materials in 20251. It is then estimated that in the mid 2030’s, end-of-life batteries will supersede scrap materials from factories, but extracting the valuable lithium, cobalt, nickel and other metals from existing end-of-life batteries will be a more involved process than processing scrap metals from factories2. Geopolitics may offer a natural push towards recycling firms In 2022, when one is trying to analyse the possible forward path of the relationship between certain countries (for example, US vs China) it is very difficult to know what might happen. China is the major processor of some of the most important battery metals (see Figure 2), which will likely be a major source of tension for Western countries. Based on what we can see today, we have to imagine that Western countries would prefer a greater independence of supply away from a dependence on China if that can be a reasonable possibility. Conclusion: recent activities show companies making moves on this front Ascend Elements is a start-up that is aiming to be an emerging centre of battery production in the Southeastern US. Jaguar Land Rover and SK Group have contributed, along with other investors, to put $300 million into the firm. It is seeking to commercialise an efficient method, termed ‘hydro-to-cathode’, to turn used lithium-ion batteries into new components. As of the recent funding, Ascend Elements is valued at $500 million3. The Inflation Reduction Act is also notable, in that it focuses on defining how much battery material is coming from domestic production. ‘Domestic’ in this context means ‘inside the US.’ This creates an immediate incentive for recycling players to ramp up their production and operations in the US, as it would then connect electric-car tax credits for consumers back to batteries that are at least majority-sourced from inside the US4. The primary risk in the space appears to be whether the recyclers can effectively achieve a scale of their operations to bring down unit costs and allow for strong financial performance before waves and waves of existing EV batteries start getting retired. Even if batteries from laptops and smartphones are recycled, it may not be enough material to scale operations and allow the companies to progress towards profitability5. WisdomTree believes in the importance of the global energy transition, of which battery recycling is certainly a part that can grow over time. Diversification across the supply chain may mitigate the risk of being a bit early to certain parts of the picture.
G
by aneekaguptaWTE
Equity outlook Restrictive policy and geopolitical risks raise the odds of a global recession What a difference a year makes. 2022 saw the ‘reopening’ of markets from the COVID pandemic evolve into a ‘recession’. Margaret Thatcher put it succinctly on 27 February 1981 – “The lesson is clear. Inflation devalues us all.” Monetary policy has been on the most pronounced tightening campaign in decades as inflation progressed from being transitory to potentially permanent due to the energy crisis. Politics is driving economics, not the other way around In the pre-war global economy, globalisation was an important source of low inflation. A large amount of global savings had nowhere to be deployed, rendering interest rates lower on a global basis. However, post-war, global defence spending has risen to a level not seen in decades as national security consumes government’s agendas. There will be vast opportunity costs involved, tied to the increase in world military spending. We expect the rate of globalisation to take a back seat, as Europe would never want to be as dependent on Russian energy as it is today. In a similar vein, the US does not want to fall privy to the same mistake Europe made and will aim to strengthen ties with Taiwan in order to ensure the smooth flow of chips. National security is inflationary We are in the midst of a war in Europe, owing to the brutal battle being waged by Russia in Ukraine. While the war is centred in Ukraine, the reality is we are all paying the price of this war by allowing it to continue. There is another war brewing in the background that we must not fail to ignore. The United States’ deepening ties with Taiwan is aggravating China. The Taiwan issue remains sticky. Taiwan’s role in the world economy largely existed below the radar, until it came to prominence as the semiconductor supply chain was impacted by disruptions to Taiwanese chip manufacturing. Companies in Taiwan were responsible for more than 60 percent of revenue generated by the world’s semiconductor contract manufacturers in 20201. Tensions between Taiwan and China could have a big impact on global semiconductor supply chains. The United States’ dependence on Taiwanese chip firms heightens its motivation to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack. The desire for control of technologies, commodities, and straits is paving the way for economic wars ahead. China needs to get its house in order The economic headwinds that China faces are multifaceted. Unfortunately, policy easing from China in H1 2022 has been insufficient to arrest the extent of the slowdown. Of late, China’s State Council stepped up its economic stimulus further by announcing a 19-point stimulus package worth $146 billion (under 1% of GDP) to boost economic growth2. The property markets continue to deteriorate. The problem stems from a lack of financing among many developers that is needed for construction of their residential projects. All of this came about from the central government’s decision in 2020 to introduce the ‘three red lines’ policy to rein in excessive borrowing in the real estate sector. Vulnerable property developers are struggling to secure capital to sustain their businesses. Alongside, demand for housing has deteriorated due to intermittent COVID lockdowns, weakening economy, and doubts over developers’ ability to deliver completed housing units. However, the weakness in China’s economy extends beyond the property sector with rising unemployment and energy shortages. Chinese earnings growth since Q3 2019 has lagged the rest of the world. China has also suffered significant capital outflows, owing to its adherence to COVID-zero. This has set back its rebalancing towards a consumption-driven economy, rendering China to remain more addicted to export-led growth. However, export demand has begun to weaken as the rest of the world slows. US is in the early innings of a recession The US economy appears a safe haven amidst the ongoing energy crisis as it is less exposed to the vagaries of Russian oil supply. It also recovered faster from the pandemic compared to the rest of the world. The labour market remains strong as jobs continue to be added, wages accelerate, consumption has continued to grow (albeit more slowly), and unemployment remains at a five-decade low. Despite the recent upswing in GDP growth, caused by noise in the foreign trade numbers and technicalities in inventory data, the big picture of a slowing economy in the face of aggressive monetary tightening remains intact. There are mounting signs of slowing too, especially in the housing sector owing to the rapid rise in mortgage rates. Earnings in 2022 have reflected the challenging environment being faced by US corporates with earnings growth for companies grinding down to 3.17%3.The more value-oriented sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials continue to outperform. Looking ahead, earnings revision breadth for the S&P 500 Index are in deeply negative territory suggesting downside is coming from an earnings growth standpoint. Core inflationary pressures remain concerning, especially housing rents and medical inflation – components that are typically much stickier compared to goods and transport inflation. The stickier high services inflation reflects strong labour market dynamics as services are labour intensive and housed domestically. The Federal Reserve (Fed) appears unwilling to declare victory in its war against inflation. As we look ahead, it’s clear that the Fed’s role in quelling inflation without tipping the economy into recession will take centre stage. Harsh winter ahead for Europe Europe is heading for a recession in response to a strong external shock. Gas flows from Russia to Europe have declined substantially to 10% of their levels in 2021, causing gas prices to spike. The Russian war in Ukraine is showing no signs of abating, with Russia deciding on a partial mobilisation after a rather successful Ukrainian counter-offensive. These higher energy prices are squeezing real disposable income out of consumers and raising costs higher for corporates, causing further curtailment of output. The energy driven surge in headline inflation to 10.7% year on year4 has sent consumer confidence to a record low, leaving Europe in a bind. Fiscal policy in focus The European Union (EU) aims to define the direction and speed of Europe’s energy policy restructuring through REPowerEU strategy. However, crucial energy policy decisions have been taken by EU countries at national level. In an effort to shield European consumers from rising energy costs, EU governments have ear marked €573 billion, of which €264 billion has been set aside by Germany alone. In most European countries, both energy regulation and levies are set at the national level. The chart below illustrates the funding allocated by selected EU countries to shield households and firms from rising energy prices and their consequences on the cost of living. No pivot yet from the ECB We experienced a decade of almost no inflation and quantitative easing in Europe. We have now entered a phase in which the European Central Bank (ECB) has gone ahead with its third major policy rate5 increase in a row this year, thereby making substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. The ECB remains eager to have policy choices dominated by risks, rather than the base case, owing to which more rate hikes are coming. If Eurozone inflation continues surprising to the upside, the ECB will have to continue raising rates and determine when to activate the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to support the periphery. We expect the ECB to take the deposit rate to 2.5% by March, as it continues to see risks to inflation tilted to the upside both in the short and long term. A tightening cycle into a slower-growth macro landscape has never been helpful for equities. European equities are faced with an extremely challenging backdrop ranging from high energy prices, growing cost pressures, negative earnings revisions estimates, and cooling growth. Amid the sell-off in equity markets in the first half of this year, European equities currently trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3x, marking the steepest discount versus its long-term average of 21x compared to other major markets. The risk of a recession to a certain degree is being priced into European equity markets. Conclusion In our view, the global economy is projected to avoid a full-blown downturn; however, we expect to see a series of individual country recessions take shape at different points in time. Evident from recent data, the downturn in the US is expected in the second half of 2023 whilst the Eurozone and United Kingdom will enter a recession by Q4 this year. Contrary to the rest of the world’s key central banks, China and Japan are expected to keep monetary policy accommodative which should help buffer some of the slowdown. Given the highly uncertain environment, investors may look to consider US and Chinese equities, whilst potentially reducing weighting towards European equities. Across factors, we continue to tilt to the value, dividend, and quality factors given the expectations for weak economic growth, higher rates, and elevated inflation.
ICEUS:MWL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE