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Chinese SSE300 Index ETF: Bearish Dragon with 1.618 TargetThis is an extension to the Bearish SSE50 setup that I posted not so long ago; I found a tradable US Listed ETF that tracks the movement of the SSE300 and the situation on this chart is pretty much the same as the one for the SSE50 where we are breaking a logarithmic trendline, the moving averages, and looking to make a minimum 61.8% retrace. However, I believe it will go much deeper and my targets will be the 88.6% retrace at $17.31 and then the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension below at $7.72
AMEX:ASHRShort
by RizeSenpai
1
LU Lufax Most Undervalued Chinese StockFor the China reopening thesis i think LU Lufax Holding is the one of the most undervalued stocks you can own right now! And i will tell you why! LU Lufax Holding has a ridiculous PE Ratio (TTM) of only 1.81! The Forward Dividend & Yield is 0.51 (21.79%)! Last year the stock was $18.30. It has lost most than 90% of its value, while the business is growing and pays dividends. The yield alone is a big gain, even if the price stays flat. Last year Morgan Stanley had a price target for LU of $13 while JPMorgan Chase of $15. 3rd biggest shareholder is BlackRock, with an estimated average of $6.11. You can but the stock now 3 times cheaper than BlackRock. The average daily volume in the past 3 months is high, more than $10Mil daily (i think someone is accumulating). My price target is the $7.10 resistance. I believe LU is a premium call. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
NYSE:LULong
by TopgOptions
3
Selling CN50 into rallies.CHN50 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 12765 (stop at 13010) Buying pressure from 12189 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. Trading within a Bullish Channel formation. Our expectation now is for this swing higher to continue towards the top of the trend channel, to complete a correction before sellers return. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 12065 and 11120 Resistance: 12660 / 13140 / 13610 Support: 12075 / 11120 / 10490 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDShort
by OANDA
Oil move pending China's directionBrent Crude Oil price is expected to consolidate between 93 to 100, with the main catalyst being China's Covid Policy. There were on-and-off hopes of China's reopening. However, we are still very much on the fence given the continued strict Covid measures in China. On the other hand, China did announce an easing of the measures, reducing the quarantine time. Another positive news is that the NHC is planning to accelerate vaccinations, which is crucial before further easing on their zero COVID policy. We don't know how long that will take, or when it will be in effect. Buys on support above 93 and sells on resistance at 100, until we have a clear path on China's reopening. Overall, looking more for buys given the pretty much firm demand in oil. Keep an eye out for OPEC oil report on Monday, 14 Nov 2022.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by geneAnalytics
EURCNHPast analysis : The EuroStoxx 50 index is up 0.39%, the FTSEurofirst 300 is stable and the Stoxx 600 gains 0.2%. The main European stock markets are moving without a clear trend at the start of Monday's session in a context of caution at the start of a week which will be marked by the highly anticipated US inflation figure and the mid-term elections in the United States. . = waiting for US data In Paris, the CAC 40 lost 0.02% to 6,414.94 points around 08:45 GMT. In London, the FTSE 100 lost 0.03% and in Frankfurt, the Dax advanced by 0.38%. Stock indices rose more than 2% on Friday on hopes of a relaxation of COVID-19 measures in China, but Chinese health officials on Saturday reaffirmed their commitment to a "zero COVID-19" strategy. dynamic". = continuation of coercive measures in China The Chinese indicators of the day confirmed the bad turn of the economy: exports and imports fell in October against all expectations under the effect of health restrictions, inflation and the rise in interest rates abroad. Chinese markets ended the day in positive territory, however, as investors continued to speculate on an easing of anti-COVID measures despite official denials. = economic slowdown in China The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in September as the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% and average hourly wage growth slowed slightly year on year to 4.7% but accelerated to month-on-month, at 0.3. Luxury stocks, very dependent on the Chinese market, also stand out: Hermès, LVMH and Kering gained from 3.71% to 7.07%. The owner of Gucci also took advantage of information from the Wall Street Journal according to which discussions are underway for the possible takeover of the Tom Ford brand. = Luxury market in good health despite everything In the news of the results, Societe Generale (+ 2.55%) published quarterly performance above expectations thanks to its trading activities. JCDecaux shares jumped 14.34% as the outdoor advertising specialist reported quarterly revenue growth above expectations. The prospect of lasting monetary tightening in the United States continues to drive up Treasury yields. That of the ten takes more than four basis points to 4.171%. = speculation on the bond markets following potential rate increases In Europe, its German equivalent evolved at the end of the session towards 2.29%. Christine Lagarde and Luis de Guindos, the President and Vice-President of the European Central Bank respectively, underlined that the Frankfurt institution continued to give priority to slowing inflation in the euro zone to prevent it takes root. On the currency side, the euro rose 1.65% to 0.9912 dollars. The greenback fell 1.4% against a basket of benchmark currencies. = ECB rate hike outlook Now : Indicators indicating a trend reversal - Decreasing ADX - Decreasing Momentum (& little divergence) - RSI emerging from the overbought area
Short
by thefrenchsniper
AUD/USD resumes rally with massive gainsThe Australian dollar has posted sharp gains, as the US dollar is lower against the majors in the North American session. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6542, up 0.97%. Australia's NAB Business Confidence for October slipped to zero, down from 5 points in September. The significant decline is reflective of a drop in orders, higher rates at home and a gloomy global negative outlook. The soft data comes on the heels of Westpac Consumer Sentiment, which plunged by 6.9% to 78 points, its lowest level since April 2020, when the Covid pandemic had just started. Inflation is galloping at a 7.3% clip, China's economy is weakening and the energy crisis in Europe is likely to worsen in the winter. These headwinds are not about to go away, which does not bode well for the Australian economy. The Australian dollar has fallen sharply in 2022, although we're seeing a rebound, with gains of 2.9% on Friday, courtesy of the US nonfarm payrolls, and strong gains today as well. The US dollar's decline on Friday and again today are against all the majors, which means that this is a case of US dollar weakness rather than Australian dollar strength. I would be surprised if the Aussie can hold onto these recent gains, as the currency faces plenty of headwinds. In the US, the midterm elections are being held today, which is widely being viewed as a referendum on President Biden's performance. The economy is giving mixed signals and Biden's popularity is sagging, which could result in the Republicans taking control of both the House and the Senate. If the Republicans grab either one, it will translate into deadlock in Washington and a weakened President Biden. The election could move the US dollar if we see a Democratic surprise or a clean sweep by the Republicans. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6545. Next, there is resistance at 0.6631 There is support at 0.6411 and 0.6329
by OANDA
USDCNH probably going a lot higherA little while ago the PBOC lost control of their currency and we saw the US dollar rising exponentially. In the latest trade report from China Exports from China edged 0.3% lower yoy to USD 298.37 billion in October 2022, missing the market consensus of a 4.3% growth. This was the first decline in shipments since May 2020, amid poor overseas demand as cost pressures grew globally and supply disruptions lingered. There is a real chance that the US dollar could keep rising as the offshore renminbi CNH collapses further. China needs to export to the US to receive the US dollars, to then go out and buy stuff like Oil. This is why the Chinese and the Saudis earlier this year start to formulate a plan for China to buy direct with their own currency.
by Macrobriefing
Iron ore hits record-low as demand drops By the end of 2022, the price of iron ore is expected to hit their lowest level in three or four years as global demand for the commodity continues to slow down, particularly from China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore. In recent years, China has been cutting down its iron ore demand especially after the government placed restrictions on the industry to reduce carbon emissions. In 2021, the country's iron ore import fell to 1.12 billion tons from 1.17 billion tons in the prior-year period. Expectations for 2022 from the production side are no better with Australia, the world's biggest exporter of iron ore, projecting a 0.6% drop in global steel output to 1.947 billion tons. "Combined with growing global recessionary fears, new COVID-19 outbreaks and weakness in China's housing sector have dampened world steel and iron ore demand in recent months," the Australian government said in its October quarterly report. A Reuters survey in October showed that prices are expected within the $90/ton to $115/ton range by the end of the year. MetalMiner data shows the price in early 2022 were at $160.30/ton at the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine. The decline comes despite forecasts of growth in the demand for iron ore through to 2026. The global market for iron ore is estimated to reach 2.7 billion metric tons, while production is expected to reach 3.17 billion metric tons. Until definite signs of recovery are observed, maybe it is best to err on the side of caution regarding iron ore prices, especially considering the threats of a recession in Europe and the persisting problems in China's property sector, which could heavily impact on the demand for the key steelmaking ingredient.
SGX:FEF1!
by BlackBull_Markets
Brent could trade higher only if...Energy prices climbed on Friday as Brent reached the 92.60 price level and WTI climbed a high of 98.75. This move higher was due to the weakness of the DXY and the anticipation that China was ready to reopen borders, spurring demand for oil. However, as China reiterates its intention to maintain its current Covid policy, both Brent and WTI are retracing lower from last week’s climb higher. Look for the completion of the retracement before a continuation of the uptrend. The prices could test the key resistance level of 97.00 for WTI and 102.00 for Brent, if prices clear above the immediate resistance of 94.00 and 100 respectively.
TVC:USOILLong
by JinDao_Tai
Strong Reversal SPY/SPX IHFundamentals: Slowing growth from Google and Microsoft continued our confirmation of a slowing macro environment. Microsoft reporting slowing growth in cloud revenue. Google even said their strongest ad flow of "search" saw a decline in revenue. Ad spend being the canary in the coal mine indicates the market is ready to continue it's collapse. META continues to blow through cash to build the metaverse. -3 month/10 year yields inverted -Yields/Dollar continue their climb - taking a break the last couple of days. -BOJ intervention -Canadian central bank increasing just .5 -Chinese Xi reigns again and this time with complete dominance - Speaks of a great challenge ahead - Taiwan in the crosshairs -Russians talking nuclear attacks Technical Analysis: The low from Sept 6th, the downward sloping trendline from August 26th, the 50 day MA, combined with the upward trend line from the recent lows created a strong resistance after a 3.5 day run up. ES1! futures stopping a few ticks below 3900. 3 day pumps are the norm. -Gap at 408.6, 200 MA and downward trend line from the ATH creating the next target to the upside. Outlook: I definitely believe there is more downside ahead for the markets into 2023. Although today's price action and macro indicators are pointing down that does not guarantee we have seen the end of this rally. Upside gap to 408.6 is being eyed by the bulls. Perhaps by no coincidence the 200 MA is closing in on that price. Those combined with the downward trend line point to a mid November rally adjourning. Bulls looking to load back up around 375 SPY. Breaking through 375 shows the bears have gained control and we have entered into a longer correction formation or new wave down.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ZaphodBeebz
HSCEI DOWNTREND EXTENSIFIESHang Seng China Enterprises Index was already trading on a downtrend due to the real estate problems and COVID lockdowns that were plaguing the country, but the reelection of President Xi and the concerns that more emphasis will be put on political ideology rather than economic growth led to investors selling off their assets, not willing to deal with the uncertainty. The HSCEI October futures broke the support line of the channel they were trading in and gained even more steam for their downtrend. MACD indicator is confirming the downtrend, while RSI is deep in the oversold area with no prospects to move out of it soon. If the current downtrend continues, the instrument might try to test levels of around 4300. In the opposite scenario, the price might return to its previous local resistance at 5700. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
HKEX:HHI1!Short
by legacyFXofficial
BABA MOMENTUM POSITIVEWeekly Chart - BABA I am taking an interest in BABA here. It has been in a steep correction for well over a year and appears to have made a bullish wedge. What really has my attention is not only the price breakout above but also the momentum break. I may leave myself a little room and time here but I personally may take a heavier interest if it stays this cheap or drags sideways. These patterns are great for trading the spikes but there are no guarantees. It's not uncommon to see a large spike up (15-30%) only to correct and go nowhere for weeks or months. A breakout does not guarantee profit.. but for me the reward outweighs the risk in this zone. Let's see what happens.
NYSE:BABALong
by gghsusa
1
Did $BABA stock BOTTOM?My experience I owned shares of Alibaba for the last 10 months. I started buying when it dropped to $140 in November 2021, and then I started averaging costing during the downtrend, my average price was around $110 and I completely closed my position at the beginning of July 2022 when it traded at $120. In conclusion, made a small 10% during this period, assuming a lot of risks, having money stuck in there creating an opportunity cost for other investments. My first lesson here was "Never try to catch a falling knife" . I've read this quote many times, but I got pushed by the FOMO back in 2021, when I should have waited for some consolidation or lateral movements of the price, to show me some kind of demand at this level before jumping in. I'm sharing my experience in this situation with the idea to help someone with making better investment decisions. The truth is, you must always learn from your own mistakes. But learning from others' mistakes will save you time, stress and money. However, this is where experience lays, funny isn't it? Long-Term Forecast Alibaba is a very interesting business model, with incredible growth in the past. I think that the chart reflects an evolution from a Growth Company to a Stable Company , that's why the P/E valuation went from 30x in the past to 15x nowadays. The market included the growth slowdown to its market cap. Of course, there are many other risks related to Alibaba that also impacted its price during the last year. Some of them are: - Uncertainty Risk is related to the political pressure between the USA and China. - Delisting Risk from NYSE. - Monopoly fines from China. Changes in Chinese state policy regarding publicly traded enterprises , the warming of relations between the US and China, as well as current geopolitical developments where China is implied have created uncertainty for investors. This results in a negative impact on the price of the stock. There are factors that could influence the Chinese government to be tolerant and lower the pressure on publicly traded enterprises, particularly if they choose to give a higher priority to stronger GDP development . Taking everything into account, this could be a fantastic buying opportunity if China is becoming the next world's superpower. However, from my personal point of view, I would rather have companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in my portfolio. I see better potential returns in them. Short-Term Forecast The price is showing consolidation in the zone between $80-$120, the lower part of the channel reflects a strong demand, which is easily spotted by the strong bounces that it has from there. You can also try to trade it by buying near the bottom of the lateral channel and selling it at the top. $BABA released good quarterly earnings, beating expectations in sales and EPS. We should also take into account that when your revenue stays flat in an inflationary environment, probably your income from operations is going to decrease, and that's what happened here. Bullish Scenario If the momentum stays and the market breaks and maintains the $4300 level we can see a significant upside in this stock. Taking it to 120-160 dollars per share. Which in my humble opinion is less likely due to the market conditions and economic challenges that we are facing. The RECESSION is here, and the INFLATION has to go straight down from these levels to prevent a crash in the financial markets. Bearish Scenario If the INFLATION is unstoppable at these interest rates, the market is going to be severely punished. Less consumer demand due to the recession will impact companies' margins. Profit warnings from companies will accelerate the crash. If we find ourselves in this situation, get your cash ready, many investment opportunities will be out there waiting for us. In this case, I would adapt my strategy, and I could consider buying some $BABA at $60 for sure. Alibaba is having strong buybacks from the management. The company has plenty of cash which is going to be used to reduce the outstanding amount of shares and to undertake investment projects. The Debt-Equity Ratio is around 15%, and the company has a healthy balance sheet. The Cloud Segment is getting bigger and it can also be a very important stream of income in the future for the firm. The company is actually trading at 10X Price / Cash Flow, which historically has meant that it is a good buy at this level. From a financial perspective, I think that $BABA is undervalued. The above mentioned characteristics made me start buying the stock at $140, my mistake was that I didn't properly analyse the risks this investment had. Not everything is in the accounting books! Keep your eyes open! I stand SHORT for the next 6-12 months and LONG for the next 3-5 years. Don't forget, I'm a random guy on the internet that is just sharing his point of view. Do not take my reflections as financial advice.
NYSE:BABAShort
by GenadiYankov
2
YANG - China Bear Fund 3x leverageThere are numerous headwinds to the Chinese economy and normally I would say the CCP would be able to manipulate the mechanisms needed to keep stability, but not this time. This time it is different due to conflicting policies and factors outside of their control. You have their 0 Cov policy which is causing widespread business disruption as the Chinese vaccine dose not seem effective against omicron and B.A2 variant. You have them needing to strengthen the yuan due to the dollar ripping higher by selling USD but, they need the dollars to service debts and there is a dollar liquidity crisis which means they need to hold on to every dollar they can. You have the ag sector not fully recovered from decimating their swine herd due to Swine Fever and crops disrupted due to last year's flooding plus a global fertilizer shortage. Finally you have it as a bet that an autocratic regime, governed by a single man who has a record of shooting the messenger, to not respond to economic crisis nimbly, imaginatively and effectively. Entry over the week of 4/25, averaged in at 20.40. Good luck and god speed.
AMEX:YANGShort
by SloppySeconds
3