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JICPT|DXY is on the verge of rebound on the weeklyHello everyone. Dollar index has retreated from the high around 114 created in late September when investors expected inflation would be cooling soon. To make it clear, I also inserted U.S core CPI year-over-year data on the weekly chart. You can refer to the purple line. Obviously, The dollar index moved in line with the CPI data. Both topped around the same time. When we looked at the DXY rising angle, we can see it accelerated to the upside since March 16, 2022, when Fed raised interest rate for the first time since the pandemic by 25bps. The main driving force behind the move is inflation. So what's next after the Dollar index took a dive of 50%. From my point of view, the index may held above 100 for a while(relative strong) until inflation is confirmed to go back to the 2% target. That may happen in the H2 2023. The reasons are below: 1. After the dramatic move, sellers need to take a rest around key zones(fib 50-61.8%) 2. Dollar index has been over sold. 3. 100 combined with a strong demand zone is likely to prevent it from further drop. If I'm right, there will be short opportunities for gold, and other currencies, e.g., EUR. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
INDEX:DXYLong
by JICPT
Tracking the China reopening basket: HSI, Copper, KRW and AUDSince early November, when China initially hinted at lifting statewide Covid restrictions, a basket tracking assets linked to the Chinese reopening story has surged by 22%. In the last 11 weeks, the China reopening basket, which is equally weighted with copper , Korean won , Australian dollar , and the Hang Seng index , has outperformed a global stock market (MSCI ACWI index) benchmark considerably. The China reopening portfolio has gained 22.3% versus a 6.8% gain of the MSCI All-Country World index since November 1st. Because the total volatility of the China reopening basket has been lower (19.2% compared to 21.8%), the Sharpe ratio has been even more positively skewed (9.61 vs 1.89). The Hang Seng index, which has climbed by 45% since November, has been the portfolio's best contributor with a weighted return of 11%, followed by copper with a weighted return of 5.3%.
NASDAQ:ACWI
by Capitalcom
2
EBON | Oversold Crypto Play | BounceEbang International Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the research, design, and development of application-specific integrated circuit chips and manufacture of Bitcoin mining machines under the Ebit brand in China, the United States, Hong Kong, and internationally. It also provides mining machine hosting services that enable customers to operate mining machines remotely; and routine maintenance services, as well as engages in the development of proprietary cryptocurrency exchange platform. In addition, the company offers fiber-optic communication access devices, including multiprotocol label switching fiber-optic access network devices, multi-service access platform integrated business access devices, and wavelength-division multiplexing fiber-optic devices; and enterprise convergent terminal products, which consists gigabit passive optical network, enterprise cloud gateway devices, industrial Internet of Things access devices, and business enterprise smart wireless access devices. It serves the blockchain and telecommunications industries. The company also provides foreign exchange trading and digital currency transfer services, as well as deals in virtual currencies. It sells its blockchain products directly, as well as through its website; and telecommunication products under the EBANG brand name primarily through supplier contracts. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.
NASDAQ:EBONLong
by DivergenceSeeker
3
YINN China Leveraged 3x Bull Setting Up Reversal ShortYINN the China Bull EFT has uptrended dramatically of late however it is far extended above its moving averages while the RSI indicator shows decreasing strength as a divergence. Price rise is hitting the resistance of the POC line of the intermediate-term volume profile where sellers will step in and invoke selling pressure in a triple top making the resistance strong. I expect it to drop now and perhaps dramatically,. Inversely the YANG ETF, a bearish leveraged fund will rise. By a Fibonacci analysis, a 15% drop is expected before another inflection. Accordingly, I would set up a stop loss of 3-5% on the short swing trade setup .
AMEX:YINNShort
by AwesomeAvani
Hang Seng: Just do it 💪The chinese Index isn't kidding around when it comes to fulfilling those New Year's resolutions and is using all its power to climb all the way North. We're expecting the Hang Seng to rise further into the turquoise target zone to complete the red wave (3). After completion, the course should fall back into a correction in order to finish the red wave (3). In case the Hang Seng can't carry on with its recent upwards pulses, we're expecting it to drop below the support line at 18 917 points. This would indicate the activation of our alternative scenario with a chance of 27%.
HKEX:HSI1!
by MarketIntel
C stands for China - updateHang Seng index had a perfect backtest of monthy trendline, I think it's a short here and if you look at the news, the fundamental reasons are there as well. Common targets for the C wave would be equal to the previous A wave (around 12k) or, if things get really ugly 1.272 of A - which would be around 6500. Both areas have strong horizontal support. The Monthly BB was the area for the recent bounce (not shown), but the Monthly Slow Stochastic will likely close with an embedded bearish reading.
TVC:HSIShort
by the_sunship
1
The Chinese yuan is the new world currency.The forecast that will probably come true not in 10 years, but this year, the yuan will begin to become the world's currency. Currently it only accounts for a few percent of world trade, but it will account for tens of percent. In this scenario China must stop devaluing the currency to please its exporters and overseas partners. Create an infrastructure parallel to the SWIFT system. I assume that this will be a digital yuan for international transactions. Whether there will be a correlation with the current fully fiat yuan - I can't say yet.
Short
by IgorFlow
3
Selling CHINA50 into trend of higher highs.CHN50 - 22h expiry - We look to Sell at 13310 (stop at 13445) Buying pressure from 12917 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. Previous resistance located at 13304. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 12920 and 12660 Resistance: 13140 / 13615 / 14200 Support: 12660 / 12075 / 11120 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:CHINA50Short
by VantageMarkets
The Rise and Fall of Chinese YuanCME: USD/Offshore RMB ( CME:CNH1! ), COMEX: Copper Futures ( COMEX:HG1! ) Two weeks ago, China abruptly overhauled its strict Covid policy that had been in place for nearly three years. Lockdowns, health codes, massive testing, and domestic travel restrictions are no longer enforced. “The world changed overnight,” said one of my friends. From Zero-COVID to “Lying flat”, the literal translation of a Chinese term which means doing the bare minimum to get by, this is a 180-degree policy reversal. It brought overwhelming joy and fear at the same time. People rejoiced over a long-overdue normalization of life and work but feared for surges of widespread Covid infections. I am sending my prayers and hope that a weaker Omicron virus would result in less severe health issues. China’s reopening could have significant implications to its economy and to financial markets. Today, I focus on its currency, its stock market, and the global commodities markets. The chart above illustrates how the Chinese Yuan (aka RMB) has moved up and down during the 2-year trade friction and 3-year Covid: • In 2018, President Trump imposed import duties on thousands of goods originated from China. This sparked a Tariff War that met with retaliation from China. • As tension escalated and tariffs raised from both sides, the USD/RMB exchange rate depreciated 12%, from 6.28 in March 2018 to 7.16 in December 2019. • After nearly two years, the two countries signed a First Phase Trade Agreement in January 2020. The Yuan rallied 4% to 6.87. • Two weeks later, Covid broke out in Wuhan, the capitol city of Hubei Province in central China. It shocked the world. As the pandemic quickly spread all over China and to the rest of the world, RMB depreciated back to 7.16 in May 2020. • As China’s Zero-Covid policy quickly restored its manufacturing, the “World’s Factory” ramped up exports to other countries which were still shut down by the pandemic. The Yuan rallied again, all the way back to 6.3 by February 2022. • The citywide lockdown in Shanghai, China’s largest city, was a turning point. Yuan nosedived to a record low of 7.3. • Finally, the opening of Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s 20th Congress in October and November signaled a change of courses. With Zero-Covid ending a month after, the Yuan is now back up to around 6.95. In my view, China’s relations with the West are the key driver of RMB/USD exchange rate. When China embraces the world, Yuan goes up. When it decouples from it, Yuan goes down. As the time of writing, RMB has rebounded 5% in 2 months. I expect Yuan to further appreciate in 2023. China’s Stock Market China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved sideways. The five-year cumulative return is -7%. This highlighted the severe impacts delivered by both the Trade friction and Covid on the Chinese economy. By comparison, the S&P 500 yields +80% for the first four years. Even after the big selloff in 2022, its 5-year return is +45%. We are witnessing initial chaos from reopening and Covid surges. After time goes by, I expect China’s stock market to rebound in 2023. For certain, the Chinese economy faces a lot of headwinds. However, massive bailout from the State is on its way. Next year is a year for stock picking. State-run enterprises are in a better position to receive government stimulus disproportionally. My suggestion is to follow the money. Keep an eye on industries and companies which benefit the most from State economic policy. Commodities Will Get a Lifting China’s reopening is welcoming news for commodities. Take CME Copper Futures (HG) as an example. Since the past summer, the base metal had been beaten down by 20% amid the market fear of recession. However, it moved above its 50-day MA in November, as the end of CCP’s 20th Party Congress signaled changing courses. I am also bullish for agricultural commodities. With people going back to work and regaining income, consumption for corn, soybean, wheat, pork, beef, and poultry shall increase next year. This is good news for big exporters such as the US, Brazil, and Argentina. Takeaways: 1) CME CNH Futures may continue to pull back due to US dollar softening and China reopening. Please note that CNH is quoted RMB per USD. If the Yuan appreciates against the Dollar, futures price would fall. Therefore, if you are bullish on Yuan, shorting CNH is the proper action. 2) SSE stock index may rebound, but we are better off picking individual stocks benefiting from government stimulus. For investors who can’t trade China’s stock market, you could search for Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or their American Depository Receipts (ADR) listed in the US markets. 3) Copper (HG) continues to weigh in between demand reduction from global recession and potential demand increase from China’s reopening. In my opinion, recession has already been priced in. The end of Zero-Covid would be an extra booster. Copper could erase its 2022 loss once China factories are pumping out products once again. I wish everyone a Happy New Year. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:CNH1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
11
AUDJPY SHORTDXM : 46% LONG = Still high !!!!!!! Most of retails are still LONG, think in the other side. Seasonnality : neutral then bull during january but SHORT accordy to the "pattern prediction". COT Strategy : AUD is reaching a strong resistance around -5 on the COT history Chart AUD. No FLIP. Sentiment score : Daily sentiment : Negative thanks to China covid policy... Supply/Demande area : We're on a strong resitance of 89.23. Support/Resistance : Strong resistance at 83.23 on DAILY. Trend : Under all SMMA = Bearish Economic News : *Rapid reopening movements, easing of policy. Are we going to see economic recovery? Morgan Stanley says YES! And raised its 2023 China GDP forecast to 5.4% from 5. But in reality...it's not for today. *China realizes that opening up is doing too much harm and even though quarantine is no longer mandatory as of January 8, 2023, hospitals, deaths and cases are exploding (not good). There is a good chance they will reverse their decision so this indicates AUD SHORT. If no recovery in China = AUD weak because no or less exports to China since there is less demand. *Less growth in China means les importation and an impact on the AUD. The Bank of Japan, in a move that surprises the market, is extending the cap on the control of the 10-year yield curve to 0.50% instead of 0.25% previously. In other words, it is starting to be more hawkish, although it still maintains a strong control. The yen is strengthening and the Nikkei is falling.
Short
by Fantomeazote
YINN | Chinese 3X Bull ETF | LONGThe fund invests at least 80% of its total assets in equity securities of the index and in depositary receipts representing such securities. The index is designed to measure the equity market performance of investable publicly traded "China-based companies" whose primary business or businesses are in the Internet and Internet-related sectors, and are listed outside of Mainland China, as determined by the index provider. The fund is non-diversified.
AMEX:YINNLong
by DivergenceSeeker
2
YANG | My Favorite Play | LONGThe fund, under normal circumstances, invests in swap agreements, futures contracts, short positions or other financial instruments that, in combination, provide inverse (opposite) or short leveraged exposure to the index equal to at least 80% of the fund's net assets (plus borrowing for investment purposes). The index consists of the 50 largest and most liquid public Chinese companies currently trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange ("SEHK"). The fund is non-diversified.
AMEX:YANGLong
by DivergenceSeeker
1