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AUD/CAD 700 Pips Bargain: AUSSIE's Plight Deteriorates FurtherFundamentals : The China Factor : Australia's economy is intimately linked to trade with China. (1) China's lack of demand for iron ore as their economy undergoes a recession. " Disaster looming in Australian economy as iron ore demand falls " (Daily Telegraph: www.dailytelegraph.com.au ) www.imf.org fred.stlouisfed.org markets.businessinsider.com (2) Deterioration of China's economy due to a zero-covid strategy (3) China's property sector is cooling (4) Aussie's Housing data becomes " haunting ": stockhead.com.au Technicals : Past support becoming future resistance Weekly BBT Monthly BBT Hit Bollinger Band 2nd Deviation in a slightly ranging market with a downward slope Medium-term trend direction is downward dHd
Short
by Rocketman
Many Megatrends Depend on Semiconductors. Governments are competing with each other to ensure stable future supplies The phrase ‘chip shortage’ has made quite an impression1. - The US has earmarked an enormous one-time sum, $77 billion, in subsidies and tax credits to boost chip production within the US - China is prepared to spend more than $150 billion through 2030 - South Korea is poised to offer an array of incentives over the coming five years, valued at roughly $260 billion - The European Union (EU) is seeking to spend $40 billion - Japan is seeking to spend $6 billion In 2021, revenues in semiconductors were $553 billion, and are expected to grow to $1.35 trillion by 2030. Roughly three-quarters of chip-making capacity is in China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. The US only sits at about 13%, whereas the EU sits at roughly 9%2. All chips are not the same The Covid-19 Pandemic has shown different economies the importance of securing the supply of semiconductors. One thing to note is that there is a wide variety of semiconductors, and some countries are seeking to secure one type of supply over another. China’s push is aimed less at the cutting edge and more at being a higher volume player in the essential part of the market for lower priced but still important chips3. Some necessary chips that inhibit the production of automobiles, for example, could be valued at $1 dollar or less on a per-unit basis4, far from the most cutting edge in the space. Company results are showcasing both successes and failures Intel reported that Q2 earnings that received a bleak reception, with revenue falling 17% relative to Q1 of 2022. This was the worst sequential quarter-to-quarter revenue performance going back to the year 2000. Intel also noted a delay to its next generation server chip, Sapphire Rapids, and that its data centre chip business would grow slower than the overall data centre market for two years5. This compares to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) growing revenue 37% and profit by 76% year-over-year6. Earlier in 2022, Samsung reportedly lost its two biggest foundry customers, Qualcomm and Nvidia, to TSMC. Reports indicate that they were not satisfied with Samsung’s capability in the 4 and 5-nanometre space, which represents the current cutting-edge in semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC captures greater than 50% of foundry market share, operating at a market share level roughly three times that of Samsung. Still, Samsung did hold a recent ceremony to celebrate its first shipment of 3-nanometre chips, hitting this milestone faster than TSMC7. In contrast, it is estimated that roughly 25% of TSMC’s business is from Apple, and then Nvidia, Qualcomm and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are estimated to provide about another 5% each8. Capital expenditures set companies up for future growth TSMC is also investing at an incredible clip, aiming to spend up to $44 billion in 2022 compared to Samsung’s $12 billion, even if Samsung has announced a spending plan to total $151 billion between now and 20309. Intel has announced in its most recent, admittedly tough, quarterly results a plan to cut planned capital expenditures in 2022 by 15% to a level of $23 billion10. Samsung is also facing competition in the dynamic random access memory (DRAM) business, as Micron and SK Hynix have introduced some of the most advanced chips for these purposes. Still, even amidst the competitive onslaught, Samsung’s DRAM market shares sit at about 40%. In the smartphone application processor market, Samsung’s market share was 6.6%, compared with Qualcomm at 37.7%, MediaTek at 26.3% and Apple at 26%11. Time to invest? Semiconductor companies tend to follow a particular rhythm, seeing strong demand, making investments, increasing supply, hitting levels of oversupply in certain types of chips, then waiting for the market to re-attain something closer to equilibrium. Today, we may be at the tail-end of the ‘chip shortage’ and it may not, at least in the short run, be the time to expect an immediate performance pop in the share prices of most semiconductor companies. However, any megatrend that touches technology in any way requires semiconductors to function—in a sense if any of them grow, the demand for necessary semiconductors will also grow. Having a multi-year time horizon could be of greater interest, in our view. Since not all semiconductors are the same, it is also worth recognising that different companies may be more associated with different megatrends—for instance, certain companies are doing more in Artificial Intelligence (AI) model training space, whereas others are doing more in the industrial and automobile space. The supply/demand balance within different types of semiconductors will not necessarily be the same. Sources 1 Source: Sohn, Jiyoung. “The U.S. Is Investing Big in Chips. So Is the Rest of the World.” Wall Street Journal. 31 July 2022. 2 Source: Sohn, 31 July 2022. 3 Source: Strumpf, Dan & Liza Lin. “China Bets Big on Basic Chips in Self-Sufficiency Push.” Wall Street Journal. 24 July 2022. 4 Source: Gallagher, Dan. “No Quick Fix for Auto Chip Shortage.” Wall Street Journal. 9 February 2021. 5 Source: Kim, Tae. “Intel Stock Will Plunge Further, Analyst Says, after ‘Worst’ Quarter He Has Ever Seen.” Barron’s. 29 July 2022. 6 Mellow, Craig. “Taiwan Semi’s Spending Spree Will Pay Off Big in the Long Term.” Barron’s. 29 July 2022. 7 Source: Jung-a, Song & Christian Davies. “Samsung seeks to reassure markets over semiconductor competitiveness.” Financial Times. 30 July 2022. 8 Source: Craig, 29 July 2022. 9 Source: Jung-a, 30 July 2022. 10 Source: Gallagher, Dan. “Intel Shows Limits of Chips Act.” Wall Street Journal. 29 July 2022. 11 Source: Jung-a, 30 July 2022. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NASDAQ:NXPI
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
$ACH china aluminum 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Entry: $9.62 Take Profit: $13 (+35%) Stop Loss: $8.98 (-6.6%) *Stop loss is automatic* If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
ALong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
4
$CHINAH support should hold 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! This move will benefit $NIO and $BABA. They have been growing exponentially overseas in China and other countries. My team believes that the Chinese will continue to stimulate their economy financially in order to reverse the damages caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
PEPPERSTONE:CHINAHLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
$AERC back in after selling the top 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management My team entered interior air space purification company Aeroclean Technologies $AERC today at $10.60 per share. Last time we entered we didn't intend for it be a tradingview trade, but we ended up walking away with a 20.9% gain before it fell to its current share price. If $AERC starts running, we do not intend to hold it for very long. We would like to be out before Thursday. OUR ENTRY: $10.60 STOP LOSS: $10 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
ALong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
4
China stocks on chains ? It is always particularly important to look at the ETFs to get a certain overview of several individual values. In this case, I wanted to take a look earlier at the China ETF as there are several notoriety stocks incorporated there. As you can see charttechnically, we are at a junction. This fork is influenced by a few fundamental factors in my opinion. Including the China lockdowns, the rising credit stimulus and the Taiwan tensions. But anyone who is familiar with the mentality of the Chinese knows that they are not looking for fast bull markets, but are pursuing long-term strategies. In my opinion, we are still in a very speculative environment. However, if the values ​​continue to fall, I find them very lucrative in the long term. your thoughts?
AMEX:CQQQ
by Heinisch_2108
2
Can the Hang Seng cobble together a sympathy bounce?Whilst the overall trend and sentiment point lower, yesterday’s false break of support could provide a potential bounce for the Hang Seng index. Despite its downtrend on the daily chart, the HSI produced a strong bullish engulfing candle on the 25th of August which showed strong demand around 19,200 – a level which has held since May (and a similar candle occurred). Whilst it printed a bearish pinbar and then fell back below 20,000, the fact it took 6 days to unwind the gains of the engulfing candle can be seen as a form of strength. Also note that we saw a false break of the 19,200 support area yesterday despite the negative sentiment, and the day closed with a bullish hammer. Furthermore, the hammer formed and closed above key support and the weekly S1 pivot point, and a bullish divergence formed on the RSI. The near-term bias remains bullish above yesterday’s low and for a move back to the 20-bar eMA, or weekly pivot point. Whereas a break beneath yesterday’s low (or daily close) assumes its next leg lower has begun and brings the 18,400 region into focus.
CITYINDEX:HONGKONG50CFDLong
by CityIndex
BEPRO or Be Be broke. Seriously this thing is going to move.BEPRO is the number one trending token in the US that isn't in the US yet, I have been following BEPRO for the last month and a half as it was an under-the-radar name that I knew nothing about and the name sounded good. I thought "Be-a-Pro at what you're doing" and it couldn't hurt to look into. After interview by youtuber George on CryptosRUs (not a plug just a sold information gathering), which went very well, I decided to post. I knew Bepro was big deal but, but wow. this token is going to change the gaming world in a massive way. A "first runner in esports" kind of way. The CEO, Rui Teixeira, did an incredibly solid job explaining the company (bepro) which is cash positive (unlike many tokens) and it is growing so fast they're hiring new people and staking. Bepro already has clients, has quarterly profit goals, like a company publicly traded on the stock market. (My background is in stocks). Bepro is just getting started, and the company is doing very well. Rui also talked about a "Shopify Model" in the company design and after that, full disclosure I went long deep into Bepro, because Shopify has been one of the most successful stock and company in history closing at $1120.19 USD over 2600% from its opening IPO. Even more the online gambling and sports betting world is just beginning to figure itself out with crypto and this company is solving more problems than it's creating. If you look at the simple chart you can see a massive flag forming on the 4 hour and it's pressure it's breaking up trend. It has stood pretty solidly against BTC and is following the trend beautifully. Full disclosure, I own a great deal of BEPRO and will acquire more on this pull back. This token is really the first mover of its kind, and the CEO is for real treating this like a future 500 company.
Long
by jpactor
13
TSLA looking weak SHORTTSLA is continuing to trend downward while China is melting down and the TSLA giga factory is underproductive. The chart shows a fall from the upper trendline of resistance confirmed by the MACD lines flipping above the histogram. Targets for the trade are the mid-range Fibonacci levels in the retracted of the up trend so about 258 and final take profit heading towards all earnings where the current trendline hits the horizontal support at about 205 about October 1st. Stop Loss nominally at $10 above the current market price. Accordingly expecting a reward to risk of more than 5 to 1. All in all, the short setup or put options appear to be an excellent setup, The best question is whether others in the sector are following the market leader and dropping even faster or instead, are they holding up better because they have less China exposure
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by AwesomeAvani
USDCNH breakoutPrice broke up this triangle📐 and I think there is chance for run to 6.92 and even higher. Setting BUY LIMIT order to previous range high to catch🎣 the pullback. Resistances along the way ENTRY : local high @ 6.735 STOPLOSS (SL) : local low @ 6.668 TARGET (TP) : height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY LIMIT - STOPLOSS) @ 6.92 REWARD RISK RATIO (RRR) : 2.8 INVALIDATION : when SL level hit Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Long
by bizmark
7
$UVXY decent setup 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Entry: $9.11 Take Profit: $11 (+20.7%) Stop Loss: $8.70 (-4.5%) *Stop loss is automatic* If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CBOE:UVXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
6
NIO SETUP LONGNYSE:NIO NIO is thriving despite a faltering Chinese economy. It has good recent earnings and is competing well with TSLA and other Chinese EV's like XPEV In the meanwhile it is making inroads in Europe, especially Scandanavia They say buy low ( weakness) and sell high ( strength(. NIO is weak right now as the chart shows. with price below the cloud now sitting on an advance buy order support with a low RSI. This is a buying opportunity As ab aside BIO is said to be seeking a partnership arrangement with a US Domestic EV company. Should it find such agreement, it fundamentals likely would get another uptick.
NYSE:NIOLong
by AwesomeAvani