Chinese stocks have incredible surprise for youChina is number one, huh? Are you really afraid of communistic party going mad and destroying everything they've earned with hard work last 20 years?
They already spread covid and use their russian doll to harm West and that will be enough for them to continue going forward and building more trading routes in South America, Africa and Asia. China is here to stay no matter you like it or not, but they are working hard and providing value.
Long your longs before FED change it's policy in September-November and revaluate food and energy weight in CPI indexes or else...
Also most covid noob plebs already out of stonks and crypto and done with investing, rooting in a crisis.
Would you buy the blood and fear here or sell with normies is the question?!
Dollar value is still going down since the day it was born no matter what.
China
$BTCM great risk to reward ratio 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
Recap: My team took profit and ran away with a 34% gain from $BTCM just a few weeks ago. Price has dropped significantly since then and looks ready to pop.
My team entered Bitcoin Mining Company $BTCM today at $.67 cent per share. Our first take profit is $1. We also have a stop loss set at $.615.
This company is a standout from other Bitcoin mining companies. It doesn't exactly trade the same as the others due to China relations, but with investors now eyeing investments overseas this could become a goldmine soon.
OUR ENTRY: $.67
FIRST TAKE PROFIT: $1
STOP LOSS: $.615
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Aussie edges up after strong US retail salesThe week wrapped up on a high note, as June US retail sales beat expectations. The headline and core readings both accelerated in June, with solid gains of 1.0%. This indicates that US consumers are still spending despite the toll that higher inflation and higher rates are taking on disposable income. The strong retail sales report will raise expectations that the Fed will be content to raise rates "only" by 0.75%, rather than a full 1.00% at the next meeting. When the markets have a chance to digest the numbers on Monday, risk appetite will likely rise, which could push the US dollar lower.
China's economy slowed down in the second quarter, which is no real surprise given the Covid-zero policy which resulted in mass lockdowns. The economy posted a small gain of 0.4% YoY, missing the estimate of 1.0% (4.8% prior). On an annualized basis, GDP contracted by 2.6%, worse than the forecast of -1.5% (+1.4% prior). These weak numbers were offset by a strong bounce in retail sales, which jumped 3.10% in June, crushing the estimate of -0.3% (-6.7% prior). If China can avoid further lockdowns in key cities such as Shanghai, we can expect GDP to rebound in Q3. The health of China's economy is critical for Australia, as China is its biggest trading partner.
An excellent employment report earlier this week on Thursday has raised concerns that the RBA may need to accelerate its rate-tightening cycle and consider larger rate increases. The economy gained 88.8 thousand new jobs, blowing the estimate of 30.0 thousand out of the water. As well, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, down from 3.9% and below the 3.8% estimate. The RBA has been raising rates aggressively, but even so, the cash rate is still at a low 1.35%, and clearly the RBA will have to hike sharply to make a dent in inflation, which is running at 5.1%. We'll get a look at CPI for the second quarter at the end of July.
AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6782. Next, there is resistance at 0.6839
There is support at 0.6706 and 0.6649
KWEB: UNIQUE LONG TERM OPPORTUNITY?KWEB, Chinese internet ETF
Chinese techs have been in a bear market since February 2021, with the price of KWEB unable to break above the long trend line (in blue).
Kweb has found a bottom in March 2022.
Is Kweb bullish? Is it the end of the bear market for Chinese tech stocks?
Here is everything you need to know before making a decision:
- Currently the price is trying to create a bottoming base as we have seen higher lows (light black line) since March and the bearish trend line (blue) was broken.
- I see an ascending triangle with the top horizontal line of the triangle at 32.71. We tried to break this line 3 times but failed to maintain above. A sustainable break above 32.71 would be considered as bullish.
- We could backtest the rising black line of the ascending triangle before starting a bullish trend, but not sure.
- Mind the small gap around 28 that could also be filled.
- We're above the ichimoku cloud, which shows that the trend is changing. The lagging span (in green) still have to confirm the change of trend by crossing the bearish blue trend line.
- China in quantitative easing mode as western economies are tightening.
I'm long KWEB with a long term view. My buying zone is between 30 and 27.74 with a stop at 26.40 .
Trade safe.
CHINA ENERGY ENGINEERING break rectangle patternChina Energy Engineering (3996.HK) breakthrough rectangle pattern and there is 20% potential upside. Fundamental are positive since China had a hot summer and the demand for electricity increase. CEE is a electricity related stock and stage positive from short-term trend. Stop-loss level is set at 1.03 HKD .
$RDBX unorthodox technical analysis 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
Today my team entered Redbox Entertainment $RDBX at $10 per share. We set an automatic stop loss at $8.80 which would be a -12% loss.
This play has the potential to reach at least 50% above our entry in a very short amount of time. It could also do the exact opposite. We like the chart set-up, but please listen to us when we say that this isn't a safe bet.
Good luck to all!
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$CHINAH bearish set-up? 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
Bitcoin along with the US market should take a decent hit sometime this week due to the continuation of strength in the US dollar. Bear-Index's, the dollar, and energy appear to be where the money will be flowing during this period if this does play out. This would lead to a temporary slowdown in the growing Chinese economy and allow it to retest support.
!! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !!
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#ALIBABA looking structurally bullishReally like the way Alibaba is bottoming here. Not only have we broken the steep downtrend which has held price down for the last year, but we have broken horizontal resistance at $120 while holding above a new daily uptrend line. Today is the first break above the 200dma since Feb 2021, which is another encouraging sign. Should we hold this breakout above $120 on the daily close today, next targets are $130 which was a major weekly pivot bottom from 2018. Further targets sits at 138.50 and then 161.
Third Time is a Charm: Chinese New Year: Yatsen Retail$YSG has been down only for its existence (i got fleeced badly in the first few post IPO months)
fundamentals vs share price are converging toward a point of must-buy
China and Chinese ADRs are always known to be massive risk - because many Chinese frauds are in the history book
IF this turns out not to be a fraud, Rather it turns out to be the NIO Motors of Retail MakeUp and lifestyle branding
THEN this becomes an easy 4 bagger and potentially a 20 bagger in the next few years.
Let's Go Briden (Brandon or Biden?) 🤠✌️Biden to the rescue :
Biden could soon lift tariffs on China in bid to tackle inflation
''The Biden administration is wrapping up a mandatory review of tariffs on Chinese imports that were first imposed by former President Donald Trump, who argued that China needed to be penalized due to unfair trade practices.''
Good move that could help reverse the situation.
No 'FOMO' though, we stick to our chart regardless of the situation:
Support at 10530, allows us to be 'Buyers'.
Under that level= more chaos
For now: Optimism may return.
Key points to watch out for:
- Earning Reports coming up
- Employment data
If these 2 are good we could be up for a major recovery here. Economic data will dictate what happens next. If economy is healthy Rate Hikes might be priced in already (Feds said 3,5% will be, which really is not much)
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
ps. good move there Brandon!
ps2: Nasdaq up = Btc upper
Chinese Property Equities Bubble Crash?Well, it has already popped. Evergrande is down 90%+ and Country Garden is almost down 60% from 2018 highs and testing 7.36 support.
A simple 1:1 extension of the 2018 drop would mean sub-14HKD prices are not too far away... watch for a break of local support at 19.20 for another 30% drop.
SSE Shanghai Composite W1 topped w/ a diamond? W2 comingThis China index confirmed its completion of ABC when lockdown ended & their economy resumes. It has risen so much from the ABC correction low of 2888 & we may see wave 1 topping out with a diamond reversal pattern. As seen in the past 2 times shown in chart, a diamond can be either a reversal or continuation pattern so proceed with caution.
Reasons why I see this as a reversal:
1) index has already risen 500 points (2888 to 3388 completes the 5 sub-waves of wave 1) without any major retracement.
2) price was rejected exactly at wma 50 & an anchored VWAP from 3300 bottom of July 2021
3) price was rejected at the 2015 red trendline
4) price has reached the 1.272 FIB retracement of the most recent leg down (an ideal spot for abc zigzag retracements)
The 2 most probable supports (the 2 yellow zones) for the wave 2 correction are:
1) the 0.383 FIB near the 3100 to 3200 pivot zone
2) the 0.618 zone near 3100
If wave 2 is shallow, then the future wave 4 may be a deeper correction like 61.8% or 78.6%.
Not trading advice
US500/SPX enters into a bear market The last time this happened was in 2018 but the market some how management to rally which resulted in a false breakout.
In 2020 the market came back to this level and spiked around this area before turning into an almost 2 year rally.
2007 was a different story as market broke structure and the result was a sell of that lasted one year.
What will happen in 2022? Will the bulls take control and result in the SPX hitting another all time high.
Or will we see similar events of what happened in 2007 which resulted in a huge sell off that one year.
Nike: Air Jordans in murky Asian watersNike
Short Term - We look to Sell at 110.32 (stop at 118.64)
The company built caution into 2023 guidance on fears of more China Covid lockdowns. Trades with a bearish descending triangle formation. The bias is to break to the downside. We look to sell rallies. The measured move target is 83.50.
Our profit targets will be 83.50 and 75.00
Resistance: 115.00 / 120.00 / 140.00
Support: 105.00 / 95.00 / 83.00
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Will HSI finish strong for Q2?2 weeks ago we discussed why the HSI:HSI rebound rally would be slowed by profit takers (). The choppiness in the index we saw for the past 2 weeks was also due to the discrepancy between the China and US equity market. While the SSE Composite SSE:000001 still held above 3300 level, the US equity indexes all broke through the 2022-May low due to the increasing worries of inflation and recession risk. Hong Kong as a market sitting in between the east and the west taking different messages from each side, fluctuation is inevitable in such a situation.
Strong rebound in the US equity market last Friday
In the recent Friday session (Jun-24), the US equity markets showed a strong rebound and paired back most of the losses from the past 2 weeks and stood above the May-2022 low again. That means the breakout to the downside we saw last week is likely to be a false breakout. While the main direction of the US equity market is still downward, it could take a break at this price level (to accumulate more energy before diving further). This break also means alignment between the US and China markets, which create the necessary condition for Hong Kong HSI to continue the rally to the upside.
Xi Jinping is joining the HKSAR 25th anniversary event
Next Friday, July-1 is the 25th Anniversary of the establishment of the HKSAR (also known as reunification with China). Last week Xi Jinping has confirmed that he will physically attend the anniversary event , which marks the first time for Xi to step out of mainland China since Covid outbreak in 2020. This gesture re-emphasizes the importance of Hong Kong to China.
Reopen to revive Hong Kong Economy
Back in early June the Liaison Office of Central People’s Government (LOCPG, Beijing’s main body overseeing Hong Kong) had hosted a meeting with foreign business chambers to collect “suggestion” and “advice” on how to revive the Hong Kong business environment. All chambers had expressed that the existing quarantine measure is the biggest roadblock for local business. With the new chief executive of Hong Kong, John Lee coming onboard next month, all eyes will be on him to iron out the reopening details of Hong Kong with mainland China and the rest of the world. Personally I am optimistic about the relaxation of quarantine measures as soon as the coming Q3. Reopening of Hong Kong is actually a one-stone-two-birds move for China. First, it can serve as a welcoming gift for John Lee from China, to help him rebuild trust between the government and the people in the city. Second, reviving Hong Kong economy, especially its financial market, is one of the crucial steps for China to save its downturning economy. I believe the announcement of the reopening would be one of the major events in Q3 that send the Hong Kong HSI Index to the upside.
Technical Discussion
HSI index retested the 20 days and 50 days moving average without going through, reconfirming the support at these levels. The strength also pulled the 20 days moving average above the 50 days creating a bullish technical signal. If we follow the upside rally narrative, below are the levels the index must break through to confirm the sustainability of the trend:
22142: 09-Jun, choppy zone peak
22523: 04-Apr, rebound peak from market plummet in Mar-2022
However, one needs to be extra cautious if the index drops below the low of the choppy zone at 20697 again , as this would mean the rally narrative discussed above is still premature. Long positions in the index as well as other Hong Kong listed stocks should be trimmed partially for risk management.
Chine ETF GXC about to break out...For some time, GXC had been flagged as potential for upside... massive upside. Within a triangle, it had already gained over 10% since it was flagged.
This week, it appears to be breaking out... out of the triangle that it has been coiling in.
Obvious that the weekly and daily chart technical indicators are bullish, or crossing over bullishly. Candlesticks are pointing that too. All systems go here.
Target 20% upside... 112 in early to mid-August 2022.
Alibaba set to break long down trendFor various reasons, the Chinese tech giant Alibaba has been in a downtrend since October 2020. The company has had many headwinds, most of them related to the regulatory environment in China. Most of those issues now seem to be resolving, and I think BABA will be one of the better performers in the coming year.
The China Credit Impulse
A major leading indicator for China stocks is Bloomberg's "China Credit Impulse" index. As the following chart from MacroMicro shows, the credit impulse's last peak more or less coincided with the last peak in Alibaba in October 2020:
As you can also see from the chart, the credit impulse now seems to have bottomed and is improving, a bullish sign for China stocks and for Alibaba in particular.
Whereas the US and most other developed nations have been raising interest rates, China is actually in a rate-cutting cycle. Key policy rates in China have only been cut by about 15 basis points, so I don't want to make it sound like they're cutting rates drastically, but they're certainly not raising them, and there's no sign yet that they intend to do so. That makes China potentially a safe haven from rising rates in the US and other developed markets.
countryeconomy.com
US Delisting Risk
For the last couple years, the US has been making noise about delisting China ADRs (the depository shares that China companies use to trade on US exchanges. The SEC has been demanding that Chinese companies comply with US accounting regulations, and the Chinese government has been making it impossible for these companies to do so.
At the same time, China enacted a crackdown on big tech companies. The crackdown included steep penalties imposed on Alibaba, including a $2.8 billion fine for monopolistic behavior. The Chinese government also disappeared Alibaba's founder, Jack Ma, for three months.
This is "the big one" for Alibaba, but the problem recently seems to be headed toward a resolution. Jack Ma eventually reappeared in Hong Kong and has dutifully been doing as he's told, including restructuring Ant Group and selling off media companies to address the Chinese government's monopoly concerns. Last week, the Chinese government signaled through state media that the tech crackdown should be over soon, and that the Chinese regulatory commission will support companies in complying with US accounting requirements so that ADRs can remain listed in the US:
www.cnbc.com
While this isn't yet a done deal, it looks really promising and could lead to a large rally in China stocks if and when it gets across the finish line.
Zero Tolerance Covid Policy
China has had a policy of zero tolerance for Covid, which means the whole country goes into lockdown every time a Covid outbreak happens. This one is not as big a deal for Alibaba, because it's an ecommerce company and thus potentially a beneficiary from people staying home. But I suspect that if China ended this zero tolerance policy, the entire China stock market would rally, including Alibaba. There have, indeed, been rumors that China may end the policy, as reported by the LA Times:
www.latimes.com
China has a pretty high vaccination rate overall, but they've used the somewhat less effective Sinovac vaccine, and the elderly population surprisingly has been less willing to get vaccinated than younger people, so death rates in the current outbreak have been pretty high. This may make it difficult to end the zero tolerance policy, but they have to end it sometime, so we'll see.
Alibaba Valuation and Buybacks
Alibaba's got something like an 8% free cash flow yield, which makes it a pretty incredible value for a big tech stock. EV/EBITDA is about 10x, which is mid-range for China's consumer discretionary sector and way below US tech firms of comparable size. The valuation makes BABA hard to resist. They could flush half their capital down the toilet and still be a better value than a lot of US tech.
And the signs are that they plan to deploy their capital well rather than poorly. Yesterday Alibaba announced that it will increase its buyback program from $15 billion to $25 billion, which means it will opportunistically take advantage of low share prices to efficiently return capital to shareholders. That's called good capital allocation, and it's one of the things I look for in an investment. It's a really good sign for Alibaba here.
Technicals
As you can see from the chart, Alibaba has been in a long downtrend. It looks ready to attempt a breakout from that downtrend, however. I'm adding on any pullback to the 112-116 range and looking for a test of that downtrend line probably within a couple weeks.