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USD/CNH May Resume Broader Uptrend as China Faces Growth WoesThe US Dollar may regain its footing against the Chinese Yuan amid favorable fundamental headwinds. China's zero-Covid policy has been weighing on local economic output. Meanwhile, rising fears of a recession in the US are slowly weakening global growth expectations. This leaves China in a tricky spot, even if conditions open up locally. A slowing global economy could sap the demand for Chinese goods. Diverging monetary policy is also favoring the US Dollar against the Chinese currency. On the daily chart, USD/CNH has left behind a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Further upside follow-through could open the door to further gains. That would place the focus on the May high at 6.8376. Otherwise, clearing immediate support at 6.6480 exposes the Mat low at 6.6119 as the 50-day Simple Moving Average nears.
by QM_Dubrovsky
AUD Relief Rally to Get Chinese SupportMarkets have been dreadfully negative in recent weeks but we have in recent days begun a relief rally in US stocks and most FX pairs. AUD has led higher after new election and new China friendlier party in charge. On that note china made first high level contact in 2 years. We like AUD to rally with stocks and sentiment alone but the kicker would be if US drops tariffs on China and they reciprocate by dropping tariffs on Australia wine/coal. easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. “Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based o n a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
Long
by easyMarkets
Equities give back gains - ProfZero not falling for bull trap 🐻INVESTMENT CONTEXT Equity markets took a breather on May 23, as operators reacted positively to U.S. President Biden commitment to review Trump-era tariffs imposed on China Accumulated gains are now being quickly given back, as futures on May 24 point to red territory for both S&P 500 and Nasdaq (dropping 1.21% and 1.88%, respectively). Snapchat (SNAP) in particular cratered 30% in the after-market on anticipated top- and bottom-line miss, dragging Pinterest (PINS) and Meta Companies (FB) 12% and 7%, respectively. Zoom (ZM) instead popped 16% over-the-counter on sales forecast beat An initial remark by President Biden that that U.S. military will intervene to defend Taiwan should the island be attacked was later walked away by White House officials International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva hinted at further cuts for this year's global economic growth PROFZERO'S TAKE The ongoing market jitters must be nerve-wrecking for the cohort of retail traders that entered the market during pandemic times. A sustained period of tech-fueled growth has quickly reversed, with Nasdaq plunging into bear market (year-to-date performance down 27%) and S&P 500 teetering on the brink of one (negative 17% since the peak in November 2021). Pandemic-era dears Pinterest (PINS), Snapchat (SNAP), Twitter (TWTR) are now down at least 50% from their peaks; blockchain assets trade even deeper in the red. Is this the end of Growth? To ProfZero, that amounts to as much as asking - are we really building the next decade on coal, legacy banking and neo-protectionism? Clocks tick on, not back Speaking of innovation, Samsung (ticker: 005930) is investing USD 356bn over the next 5 years in semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals and next-generation technologies to drive "long-term growth". Curiously enough, neither coal nor plastics appear on the plan IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva's admission that a global recession is not in the cards, but shouldn't be ruled out altogether, resonates with JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon seeing "big storm clouds" on the horizon, just but darkening a currently strong economy. ProfZero already underscored the resilience of Main Street in Q1; however, trading is all about the future, and ProfZero still fails to see a sufficiently credible deterrent to avert a recession. A ceasefire in Ukraine, and normalization in energy markets would be a fair start "Frailty, thy name is... BTC". ProfZero keeps it cool on blockchain - not paying the bears' lunch
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
TRX the great CN wall of blockchain! TRX has been going up for some time. It is by far the best positioned alt to capture the Asian markets. Overall the fundamental thesis behind this token is very bullish. China focus on keeping control of its web and IT infrastructure places TRX in a prime position. However, it is just as suceptible to the CN and US money printer as any other alt. The current off season pump, is unjustified by macro fundamentals. It is my current opinion it will not last. I will revisit this token at a later date.
Short
by TheBitcoinGeneration
2
SSE China bottomed@2863;may retest it before an abc to 3500SSE china composite index may have already bottomed at 2863.65 in April. It is now at my yellow pivot zone. It may go back down to retest the low. 2888 is a very impt FIBO level, exactly @0.786 retracement & is also coinciding with exactly 0.236 of my Fibo strategy on 2 separate retracements. It is highly probable that SSEC may rally on early June. It may reach 3300 in early August before a long consolidation above the yellow pivot zone before another rally in early Nov2022 reaching as high as 3500 In 1Q2023. (A zigzag move) If we see the Macro view in weekly Chart, SSEC actually finished wave 2 in 2005 at 1008.60. From there it zoomed up to 6124 ATH in Oct2007 just before the 2008 crash. From these 2 points it is actually making a very big wedge that is the big & long wave 4. The apex of this wedge has a definite destination. GUESS WHERE: exactly at 3500! It will whipsaw above & below the 3300 to 3500 zone for a while. It may reach as high as 3740 to 4000 before it finally breaks out of this BIG WEDGE to start the final wave 5. Time to shine after zero-covid accomplishment. Not trading advice
INDEX:000001Long
by xtremerider8
China ETF GXC finding its foot to launchThe China ETF, GXC, has in recent weeks been beaten down. This is great part dur to concerns about their ideology about a Zero COVID strategy, where it comes with great economic costs. The Western media (mostly) has had a field day whacking China on their "primitive" idea, saying that it is impossible, it is unreasonable, it is irrational, etc. I beg to differ... The saying... "Do not listen to what people say; watch closely what people do" is apt for application here. China has an idealogy it is willing to play out. It also indicates that there is something about CoV2 that they might know, which if true, are not telling the rest of the world about it. And as the world is in bewilderment, makes a laughing stock of China, I do beg to differ. Something deep, something beyond what meets the eye is underlying this hidden dragon. Meanwhile, with bated breath it can be observed the Chain equities have been beaten down... as Shanghai is locked down, and Beijing is at risk of being locked down too. Thing here is... intently watching and looking for a bottoming, it is observed that it might be just starting to break out to the upside. The GXC Daily chart is showing a pick up in Money Flow, MACD and RPM are starting to synchronously push upside. Still early days, but with turning indicators, and as price closed the last day of the week above a consolidation range, it is encouraging Would be looking for a triangle / trend line breakout, with indicators breaking out into bullish territory. The next two weeks would be critical to watch closely.
AMEX:GXC
by Auguraltrader
1
Pound rises on US inflation, GDP loomsThe British pound is in positive territory, as the currency tries to break a four-day losing streak. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2355, up 0.36% on the day. US inflation dipped in April, but still came in above the forecast. Headline CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, above the estimate of 8.1%. Core CPI came in at 6.2%, down from 6.5% but above the estimate of 6.0%. The US dollar is broadly lower as a result, although the decline would have been sharper had the estimates been right on. Today's inflation data will no doubt result in some headlines proclaiming an "inflation peak", but I would caution that it seems premature to declare that inflation is on its way down after just one release. Higher interest rates will do the job and curtail inflation, but it will take time. In the meantime, today's inflation report will not change the Fed's stance, and the CME's FedWatch has pegged the likelihood of a 50-bps rate hike in June at 89%. Looking forward, inflation gazing has become even trickier in the current environment. There are huge unknowns around price pressures due to the Ukraine war, as well as the extent of China's slowdown and the impact on supply chains due to China's uncompromising zero-Covid policy. With energy prices at very high levels, it will be difficult for headline CPI to come down. Over in the UK, we'll get a load of data on Tuesday. The key release, Preliminary GDP for Q1, is expected to slow to 1.0%, down from 1.3% in the fourth quarter. The UK economy is showing an unhealthy mix of slower growth together with soaring inflation, which has raised concerns about stagflation. The BoE has been raising rates to curb inflation, but investors have not been impressed, as the pound has hit hard times and hit a 23-month low earlier this week. There is support at 1.2199 and 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418
by OANDA
Which Chinese firms face delisting from US stock exchanges?Geopolitical tensions between China and the US have escalated in recent years amid efforts by both countries to become the world’s economic powerhouse. Speculations that the Chinese economy would overtake the US by 2030 have led to tit-for-tat tariffs, sanctions, and a revamp of capital market rules aimed at reducing Chinese companies’ access to American investors’ money. Last week, the US Securities and Exchange Commission added more than 80 more companies to a growing list of Chinese firms that are facing a potential delisting from US stock exchanges. Trump-era accounting law Former President Donald Trump signed into law the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) in December 2020, threatening to kick Chinese companies off US bourses if they fail to comply with auditing rules set by the US Public Accounting Oversight Board. China has since repeatedly slammed the law, describing it as discriminatory and distorts "the basic norms of the market economy." Beijing also denies access to listed companies’ accounting documents, citing state secret concerns. Protecting state secrets The country's State Secret Law, which was enacted in May 1989, seeks to protect state secrets and safeguard national interests. This law has prevented the Chinese units of the Big Four accounting firms from handing over certain corporate information to overseas entities. Even before the HFCAA was passed, the US has already expelled a number of big Chinese firms like the country’s big three telcos: China Telecom (HKG:0728), China Mobile (HKG:0941) and China Unicom (HKG:0762). China Telecom and China Mobile have since raised funds in the mainland market, joining China Unicom to tap into local capital. The Trump administration cited the company’s alleged ties with the Chinese military as the reason for the move. Chinese oil major China National Offshore Oil or CNOOC (HKG:0883) was also delisted from the New York Stock Exchange in October 2021 for the same reason, prompting it to raise funds at home. Less than a month ago, CNOOC raised about $4.4 billion on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in one of this year’s biggest IPOs. Most recently, more firms could be booted from US bourses after the SEC released a provisional list of firms that are found to be violating US auditing rules. Dozens face delisting risks Last week, more than 80 companies have been added to the list including CNOOC peers Sinopec (NYSE:SNP) and PetroChina (NYSE:PTR). Both companies are already listed on the Shanghai bourse. Tech firms including e-commerce giant JD.com (NASDAQ:JD), Tencent Music Entertainment (NYSE:TME), Trip.com (NASDAQ:TCOM) and electric carmaker NIO (NYSE:NIO) were also added to the list last week, joining big names like aluminum giant Aluminum Corp. of China or Chalco (NYSE:ACH). Some firms like JD.com have since vowed to protect their US listing status. The company on Thursday said it will "strive to maintain” its listing on the Nasdaq stock market and has been actively exploring possible solutions. Market reaction The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks 98 of China's biggest US-listed firms, tumbled over 17% over the past five trading sessions since the May 4 SEC announcement. The passage of the HFCAA marks the latest challenge for US-listed Chinese companies after the SEC earlier warned American investors about investing in shares of Chinese companies that operate through a variable interest entity (VIE) structure, which had been used by companies like Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) to bypass foreign investment restrictions. The SEC warned in September 2021 that if either the Chinese firm or its US-listed shell company breach their contracts, "US investors may suffer significant losses with little or no recourse available."
NASDAQ:HXC
by BlackBull_Markets
Oil Short From 108$ Oil has been propped up in recent days on the back of EU embargo on Russian oil rumours. It seems as if there might be a consensus among the member states but most are requesting exemptions for at least a matter of years before they are forced to get off it. China are also struggling with COVID-19 implications, lockdowns and seems as though the supply chain link to the U.S. is also becoming strained once again. On the back of that demand decline in China, potential slowdown in the U.S. as a result of that and combination of higher rates.
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
5
USDCNH Update - Major Breakout UnderwayIf you bought this pair when I first featured it here, you have made money. If you were leveraged 50:1 - which - often is the case in forex, you have likely returned more (% returned) in this trade than what you can expect in three years of investing in a vanilla benchmark-tracking 401K. I remain long USDCNH and will continue to cover it for the foreseeable future. Something to consider: such a rapid deterioration of the Yuan is reason to speculate the Chinese economy is becoming increasingly decoupled from anything that resembles the last 10-12 years of price action. For example, if the Yuan were to surpass $7.20, I would start to suspect two possible (again I can't "predict" anything) situations: 1. The Chinese economy in severe distress (hopefully not). 2. Intentional disregard for participation in the global economy, as it exists currently (hopefully not). Again, we are not there YET; all we can do is read the chart and analyze information / data as it becomes available. Pray for peace. God Bless
Long
by ChiefMacro
CHINA: End of a 17 Year Consolidation - Epic Breakout next? Regardless of your political bias, here's the bullish case - Pandemic, regulatory clampdown, China-fear mongering has driven stocks down - Broke down from pennant in April 2022 but recovered and closed within pennant - bear trap? - Structural shift in new world order (see Ray Dahlio's animated explanation www.youtube.com) - Curious timing where the major investment banks have gotten majority control of their China business in 2020 - US coming to an end of a 40 year major cycle and a 90 year mega cycle - have printed money out of their problems for the last decade or more. End of low interest rate environment. Funds have to flow somewhere!
SSE:000001Long
by fightingdragons
1
AUD/USD & AUD/JPY Analysis / Iron Ore & InflationThe Australian Dollar has weakened in recent weeks due to Iron Ore prices declining as China's zero covid policy has caused investors to fear a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy. Australia exports 80% of Iron ore to China, so any slowdown in China will hit demand for Australia's commodity exports and put downward pressure on the currency. We also have Australian inflation data out tomorrow, which could surprise to the upside and beat economists' forecast, causing a rally higher in the Australian Dollar on rate hike expectations. In this video I break down what could play out and how to make money from the potential outcomes.
COMEX:TIO1!Long
by KayansMarkets
The Beginning of the Golden Dragons Collapse?China is struggling, Covid 3.0 or whatever version we are on now is taking a hold of the Chinese, Shanghai in lockdowns and Shipments struggling to dock. The Chinese Economy is in a very interesting position currently, with Companies like the Chinese Titanic 'Evergrande' defaulting. We are seeing China try to expand its influence in the SCS ( South China Sea). When we take a look at the currency pair USDCNH, we are seeing the USD start to gain some real ground and this weekly charts shows the potential for this rally to continue to the 7 area, we can look for a retest of volume before opening potential long positions.
Long
by ZenFlo
$BABA, $AMZN 's dirty little secret.NYSE:BABA Anyone paying attention to $BABA? Are you considering buying into the $AMZN stock split? Are you concerned about chinese stock delisting? Geopolitics, Index fund Managers, lobbying, market reset by the FED's and technical analysis (the psychology of the investor) have a lot to do with what happens in the future. Did you know that as of 2021, China-based sellers represented 75 percent of new sellers on Amazon, according to a report by Marketplace Pulse. This marks a significant increase from 47 percent in the previous year. This large segment of China-based sellers on Amazon has not yet impacted the gross merchandise volume (GMV) market share. Domestic sellers are responsible for most of the total sales. Three-quarters of new sellers in the top four core Amazon markets — U.S., UK, Germany, and Japan — are based in China. That percentage is the calculated average of the four marketplaces, according to Marketplace Pulse analysis of more than 40,000 sellers that joined those Amazon marketplaces so far in 2021. So what does this mean for the future of $AMZN prices? Simply, if BABA gets delisted; the revenge from the Chinese government will be major; you think logistical issues, trucker shortages, and inflation is affecting prices? You've not seen nothing yet! My assumption is that the market reset is going as planned with major impact on Chinese stocks to limit the momentum of Chinese GDP (#2) against the U.S. (#1). The U.S. needs China just as much China needs the U.S. so the lobbying power of $AMZN and the rest will ensure the continuity of Chinese presence in the U.S. (those max profits are critically needed). Oooh before I forget, technical analysis: Daily Chart EMA (Exponential Moving Average): 20/50/100/200 EMA (everyone and their mama) are pointing downwards ! This spells bad news, especially going into May (a slow market month) TTM Squeeze: Squeezing to the bottom; momentum to the downside for both $AMZN and $BABA. Fib Levels: $BABA - with the current red candle crossing below the .618, there is very high probability that the price action will aim for the 1 fib. This will take us to the previous support and low of $73.28 or a possibility of going below that. Candle Stick: Summary of last 5 candles equate to a bearish movement. The last pairs look like a Bearish engulfing Pattern: Down by the sea ... off to the Falling Wedge for both $BABA and $AMZN News: Do I need to add more to the above? Well, with $NFLX taking a whooping on recent price increase policy, do you think $AMZN may face the same fate? History: The last 2 earnings have resulted in a downward trend even with great numbers. Everyone and their mama is talking about this stock... Company is worth Trillions and the consumer base love them... hmm... I really need to be buying the bottom.
NYSE:BABALong
by STAKKNATION
6
DAILY GOLD ANALYSISAccording to Wall Street traders, they have reached their profit ******** And the Asian news that came out and the increase in interest rates could be the end of the gold climb ******** We are now in area 50 of Fibonacci who can approve the correction ********* And according to Elliott waves, we have entered phase 8 of the wave ******* My views are technical, if the United States wants to change the trend, it means there will be price manipulation. ******* Every market needs supply and demand. Now we have witnessed recklessness in gold trading. ******** Thank you for being with me so far
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ALIREZATR60
2