Get started

China

Aussie dips ahead of retail sales After a strong week, the Australian dollar has reversed directions and dropped below the 0.75 line on Monday. Investors will be keeping an eye on Australian retail sales, which will be released on Tuesday. The markets are expecting a gain of 1.0%, down from 1.8% in January. The month of March has been kind to the Australian dollar, with sharp gains of 3.47%. The risk currency has not been affected by the tumultuous reaction in the markets to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, although risk apprehension is certainly higher since the war began. Investors are also uneasy over the situation in China, which continues to battle an upsurge in Covid cases. The government has imposed rolling lockdowns on Shanghai, which has a population of some 25 million. The property crisis has been overshadowed by the Ukraine crisis, but it hasn't gone away. Since Evergrande's default last year, Chinese property developers are finding themselves locked out of the global debt market, and the country's third-largest developer missed two bond payments on Friday. There is plenty of risk apprehension to go around, but the Aussie's savior has been the resource-based economy of the Lucky Country, as the range of commodities that Australia exports have been in huge demand as prices continue to head higher. Australia releases its annual budget on Tuesday, and the surge in commodities will allow the Morrison government to narrow its budget deficit and also give out some goodies, as it eyes a federal election later this year. The budget is expected to include help for homeowners and a temporary reduction in the tax on petrol. 0.7414 is the first line of support. Below, there is support at 0.7313 There is resistance at 0.7577 and 0.7639
by OANDA
Dollar / South African Rand (USDZAR) High Timeframe outline HTF (High Time Frame) outlook for the South African Rand. Lets see how it plays out over the coming months. I am currrently positioned long and per the box, break down from here and you target the next range below for some action. HTF charts take long to play out. Wonder what the news will be .... USD at monthly resistance, so probably heading to the lower box. These monthlys all tested, and weekly struggling to hold. So lower box looking prbable for now. However, this is the range to long, albiet a bit sketchy. USD looking strong against CHINA YEN , this could play a significant role, as South Africa (Along with rest of Africa) is aligned (owned) by China.
by Willco95
Trading Idea - #BaiduSHORT ENTRY: 190.50 USD TARGET: 133.00 USD (+30% profit) STOP: 222.00 USD 1.) Baidu started a correction after an impressive bull run! None of the Fibonacci Retracement levels could hold as a support! Reversal coming! 2.) According to the fundamental analysis, Baidu is a clear buy recommendation. 3.) Baidu generates significant margins and is therefore very profitable. The financial situation looks excellent, which means a considerable investment capacity. 4.) Baidu is definitely a BUY at 133.00 USD!
NASDAQ:BIDUShort
by Traderherz-Analytics
7
Waiting to see what happens on March 1st***Earnings report may or may not be the catalyst I'm looking for*** BEIJING, Feb. 15, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ: IQ) ("iQIYI" or the "Company"), an innovative market-leading online entertainment service in China, today announced that it will report its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2021 before the U.S. market opens on March 1, 2022. iQIYI's management will hold an earnings conference call at 6:30 AM on March 1, 2022, U.S. Eastern Time (7:30 PM on March 1, 2022, Beijing Time). Please register in advance of the conference using the link provided below. Upon registering, you will be provided with participant dial-in numbers, Direct Event passcode and unique registrant ID by email. Participant Online Registration: apac.directeventreg.com
NASDAQ:IQLong
by clarkehimself
Alibaba Long term AnalysisWe can see a pretty hurt #BABA stock due to all fear in the markets with China and the war, for long-term traders, this could represent a good opportunity. I try to make the chart as clear as possible, remember that this is for long-term trades, right now there´s a lot of volatility in the markets. With that scope in mind and because of volatility, the SL is extended to -34%, so manage your entry position size well. In their fundamentals, BABA is undervalued. Remembering that resistance areas become support areas when the chart moves positive, I recommend moving your SL with these new support levels and managing your exits as comfortably as you need them to be.
NYSE:BABALong
by SprinklesTheCat
What Will A Geopolitical Compromise Means For Markets?Henry Clay was a US Senator from Kentucky, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the US Secretary of State, and a Presidential candidate in the 1800s. His legacy and nickname were “The Great Compromiser” for his involvement with the Missouri Compromise, the Compromise Tariff of 1833, and the Compromise of 1850. As Henry Clay understood, any great compromise means that both sides at the negotiating table must come to an agreement that makes them uncomfortable or incomplete. The price of an asset is always the correct price A messy geopolitical landscape Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds Option two- A prolonged conflict Option three- The unthinkable In 2022, the geopolitical temperature has risen to the highest level since WW II. On February 4, Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin met at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The leaders signed a $117 billion trade agreement, but the watershed event was the “no-limits” cooperation understanding. Twenty days later, after the end of the Olympics, Russia invaded Ukraine, launching the first major war on European soil in over three-quarters of a century. Many analysts believe the Russian invasion sets the stage for Chinese reunification with Taiwan. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. Volatility in markets across all asset classes has increased, and uncertainty is the market’s worst enemy. The war, sanctions, retaliation, and a Chinese-Russian alliance threatens the status quo over the previous decades. The price of an asset is always the correct price As we learned in early 2020 in nearly all asset classes, bear markets can take prices to levels that defy logic and rational and logical analysis. The same holds on the upside as price spikes can reach unthinkable heights. The moves to the upside or downside compel many market participants to sell what they believe are tops or buy when they think the market cannot go any lower. Picking tops or bottoms is more about ego than making money, as the effort contradicts to prevailing trends. Picking a top or a bottom is a statement that the current price is too high or too low, which is always a mistake. Market participants can be wrong, but markets are never wrong. The price of any asset is always the right price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on a value in a transparent marketplace. Declaring a market top or bottom is a contrarian statement as it goes against the prevailing trend. A messy geopolitical landscape Two years ago, the world faced a common enemy as COVID-19 ignored borders, race, religion, political ideology, and all of the other factors that separate countries and people. In February and March 2022, the world faces new and daunting challenges: The Chinese and Russian leaders shook hands on a “no-limits” alliance. Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the first major war in Europe since World War II. Ukraine continues to put up fierce resistance. The US, NATO allies in Europe and allies worldwide slapped sanctions on Russia. Russia retaliated with export bans and other measures. North Korea test-fired ICBM missiles. Iran fired missiles near the US embassy in Iraq. Russian missiles came within miles of the Polish border. An attack on Poland triggers article five of NATO’s charter- An attack on one member is an attack on all. China and Russia stand on opposite sides of the conflict from the US and Europe. China plans to reunify with Taiwan against their will. On the US domestic scene, the US remains divided along political lines with mid-term elections in November. The central bank liquidity and government stimulus that stabilized the economy during the pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse before the geopolitical landscape deteriorated. The war in Ukraine only exacerbates price increases as Russia is a leading world producer of raw materials. Europe’s breadbasket in Ukraine and Russia is now a mine and battlefield at the start of the 2022 crop year. Russia and Ukraine typically supply one-third of the world’s wheat and other crops. They are also leading fertilizer exporters, causing problems in other worldwide growing regions. In 2022, the war will lead to rising prices, falling supplies, and the potential for famine and civil uprisings. Historically, food shortages have caused many revolutions. The 2010 Arab Spring that began as food riots in Tunisia and Egypt caused the sweeping political change in North Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Biden administration pledged to address climate change by supporting alternative and renewable fuels and inhibiting the production and consumption of fossil fuels. US production declined in 2021. After decades of working to achieve energy independence from the Middle East, US policy handed the pricing power to the international oil cartel. Since 2016, Russia has had an increasing role in OPEC’s production policy. In 2022, the cartel does not move unless Moscow agrees to cooperate. Oil prices were already rising when Russia invaded Ukraine, and they moved over $100 per barrel after the attack. Meanwhile, other fossil fuels have moved higher. Coal traded to a new all-time peak. US natural gas rose to a multi-year high, and European and Asia gas prices rose to record levels. Rising energy prices fueled inflation, and the war has poured fuel on an already burning inflationary fire. The war in Ukraine is less than one month old, and the human toll is rising. Tensions are at the highest level in decades. Markets are nervous, and the developments on the geopolitical over the coming days and weeks will dictate the direction of markets across all asset classes. I see three potential outcomes. Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds In the current standoff, neither side wants to give an inch. The Russian leader faces disgrace or worse if he loses to an inferior military but impassioned Ukrainian population, many of who would choose death over capitulation. The US and Europe do not want to appease Russia like the UK’s Nevil Chamberlain appeased Hitler in the 1930s. China may support Russia, but the world’s second-leading economy has close economic ties with the US and Europe. A Henry Clay-inspired great compromiser could emerge and come up with a solution where Russia, China, the US, Europe, and the rest of the world walk away from the negotiating table unhappy but with a workable solution. I believe, and it is more than a bit of wishful thinking, that this is the high odds result of the current geopolitical mess, and the result will go down in history as the great compromise of 2022. A great compromise would likely lead to a significant stock market rally and a commodity correction. Option two- A prolonged conflict A prolonged conflict where Russians fight a long and bloody war against Ukrainian forces will devastate the world economy and peace. Russia may capture territory, but it is clear President Putin will never capture the souls of the Ukrainian masses. The Russian brutality over the past weeks will never be forgotten. President Putin did not count on the passionate resistance Russian troops encountered across Ukraine. The longer the battle and the more brutal the weapons, the greater the price for Russians controlling the territory over the coming years. Millions of refugees have left the country, but that leaves over 40 million Ukrainians; most now consider Russians their mortal enemy. A long battle will weaken the Russian military and the Russian leader abroad. A prolonged conflict will cause sanctions to collapse Russia’s economy, causing domestic problems for President Putin and his government. Moreover, skirmishes are likely to break out worldwide. In the early days of the war in Ukraine, North Korea and Iran flexed their military muscles. With Europe and the US focused on Ukraine, China could use the opportunity to seize Taiwan. A prolonged conflict would weigh on US stocks and likely lift commodity prices to higher highs. Option three- The unthinkable The final option is the nuclear one, which is low odds, but a highly frightening scenario. If Russian aggression spreads across the Ukraine border into Poland or any NATO member country, it will trigger Article five that states an attack on one is an attack on all. The US and Russia have the most nuclear weapons, which increases the potential of MAD or mutually assured destruction. In this scenario, it does not matter how markets react as the world would face a disastrous situation. I believe that a great compromise is on the horizon, which would cause markets to stabilize. However, the extent of the compromise is critical as it must address the current situation in Ukraine and Taiwan and threats from North Korea and Iran. Anything short of a comprehensive understanding between the world’s powers will cause years of rising tension and threats to the nearly eight billion people that inhabit our planet. Where is Henry Clay when the world needs him? Expect the volatility in markets to continue. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPX
by Andy_Hecht
2
Nio - Watch out for the break out of the channelHello everyone, China said Wednesday that it would keep its stock markets stable and take measures to boost economic growth in the first quarter, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency. The government should roll out policies favorable to capital markets while being cautious in introducing contractionary measures, according to the Financial Stability and Development Committee under the State Council, during a meeting chaired by Vice Premier Liu He. This is huge, because the reason why Chinese stocks were down so much was due to delisting fears, unstable political environment and the recession looming over us. While the recession and the war between Ukraine and Russia is not going anywhere as of yet, the improvement in the policies of China and significantly reducing the fear of delisting is something that will have an affect on all the beat-up Chinese equities, at least in the short-term. Nio is trading inside a decending channel and we need to watch out for a break and possible retest of the last resistance. In case it does not break though, we are headed down to the 10$ mark. Good luck!
NYSE:NIOLong
by donaitelo
2
So long and thanks for the fish!There is getting to be a solid case for a significant move lower between now and the end of the month. The Hang Seng index broke down below March 2020 lows A Gap in SPY/SPX from Apr5th 2021 is looking to get filled, the same gap when the Overnight RR broke out. You know.. right after the prime brokers threw Archegos under the bus. Russia is still afraid to open MOEX and thinks 10 billion (what usd?) is going to keep Russian equities a float. MGA lost over 6Billion in market cap just for having a couple factories in Russia. The effects of prolonged negative gamma are starting to show, but don't think hedge funds or market makers are suffering to much. I would venture a guess that banks have been waiting since apr 2021 to buy the dip. There will likely be a thrust lower to fill the apr 5th gap between now and April 1st. trade safe. stop blowing shit up.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYvsGME
2
CHINA BIG DIP analysis + TENCENT (e-commerce, fintech, gaming)Hello Traders, Investors and Speculants :), You probably heard about Tencent holdings investment group.: These days you can hear some Fundamental analysis about Naspers / Prosus tranfer (spin-off) from South Africa exchange to Amsterdam. Many super-investors (value investors) like Guy Spier / Mohnish Pabrai are most likely increasing their position in Tencent directly or via Prosus shares. ++ others are buying CHina stocks // Charlie Munger = BABA, Ray Dalio increasing positions, Nitin Saigal fully invested in China ...). So Why would you need another analysis if they are alredy buying? This thread will be purely my opinion about oportunity for Buying into Tencent and many China located gigants + why I think, we are near the temporary bottom of correction = of Wave A !! If you look at biggest China companies, almost all of them reached All-Time-High from November 2020 till February 2020 = Potential TOP of China growth-tech bubble. (this time it could be e-commerce, finTech, Gaming companies + Crypto of course...) Lets take a look at few of them, this thread will continue in comments so stay tuned. TENCENT as one of biggest Chinese companies (acting more like ETF based on around 700 holdings). AliBABA KWEB - China internet ETF MEITUAN (Btw biggest Tencent position) SEA Limited: NIO: Whats interesting even some Non-China Fintech companies reached their ATH around this time like StoneCo (Brazil).: SOuth America - Mercado Libre - MELI: While in the US, Covid related restrictions and fear of investors was probably slightly delayed by several Months: is still near thSPX, AMZN, and other FAANG ggants are still near ATHs, some of the FinTech and e-commerce companies start to fall. PAYPAL: SQuare: Conclusion + Investment Thesis: 1) Be very carefull with catching the falling knife. Wait for pure Buy signals and signals of reversal at least at 3D/1W charts. Also consider buying only with very good RRRatio + clear setup. 2) China could be very good oportunity for short term BUY-LONG setups when you will be able to count all subwaves of Wave A but still be very carefull. (Around 1-3 months from now). 3) US and western - world conutries will probably continue to fall in dozens of % DOWN. (US is delayed, it could take around 3-6 months to reach bottom and point of maximum fear of retail and small VC investors.) Patience folks, patience.
OTC:TCEHYShort
by Longevity_Contrarian
3