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Nio - Watch out for the break out of the channelHello everyone, China said Wednesday that it would keep its stock markets stable and take measures to boost economic growth in the first quarter, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency. The government should roll out policies favorable to capital markets while being cautious in introducing contractionary measures, according to the Financial Stability and Development Committee under the State Council, during a meeting chaired by Vice Premier Liu He. This is huge, because the reason why Chinese stocks were down so much was due to delisting fears, unstable political environment and the recession looming over us. While the recession and the war between Ukraine and Russia is not going anywhere as of yet, the improvement in the policies of China and significantly reducing the fear of delisting is something that will have an affect on all the beat-up Chinese equities, at least in the short-term. Nio is trading inside a decending channel and we need to watch out for a break and possible retest of the last resistance. In case it does not break though, we are headed down to the 10$ mark. Good luck!
NYSE:NIOLong
by donaitelo
2
So long and thanks for the fish!There is getting to be a solid case for a significant move lower between now and the end of the month. The Hang Seng index broke down below March 2020 lows A Gap in SPY/SPX from Apr5th 2021 is looking to get filled, the same gap when the Overnight RR broke out. You know.. right after the prime brokers threw Archegos under the bus. Russia is still afraid to open MOEX and thinks 10 billion (what usd?) is going to keep Russian equities a float. MGA lost over 6Billion in market cap just for having a couple factories in Russia. The effects of prolonged negative gamma are starting to show, but don't think hedge funds or market makers are suffering to much. I would venture a guess that banks have been waiting since apr 2021 to buy the dip. There will likely be a thrust lower to fill the apr 5th gap between now and April 1st. trade safe. stop blowing shit up.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYvsGME
2
CHINA BIG DIP analysis + TENCENT (e-commerce, fintech, gaming)Hello Traders, Investors and Speculants :), You probably heard about Tencent holdings investment group.: These days you can hear some Fundamental analysis about Naspers / Prosus tranfer (spin-off) from South Africa exchange to Amsterdam. Many super-investors (value investors) like Guy Spier / Mohnish Pabrai are most likely increasing their position in Tencent directly or via Prosus shares. ++ others are buying CHina stocks // Charlie Munger = BABA, Ray Dalio increasing positions, Nitin Saigal fully invested in China ...). So Why would you need another analysis if they are alredy buying? This thread will be purely my opinion about oportunity for Buying into Tencent and many China located gigants + why I think, we are near the temporary bottom of correction = of Wave A !! If you look at biggest China companies, almost all of them reached All-Time-High from November 2020 till February 2020 = Potential TOP of China growth-tech bubble. (this time it could be e-commerce, finTech, Gaming companies + Crypto of course...) Lets take a look at few of them, this thread will continue in comments so stay tuned. TENCENT as one of biggest Chinese companies (acting more like ETF based on around 700 holdings). AliBABA KWEB - China internet ETF MEITUAN (Btw biggest Tencent position) SEA Limited: NIO: Whats interesting even some Non-China Fintech companies reached their ATH around this time like StoneCo (Brazil).: SOuth America - Mercado Libre - MELI: While in the US, Covid related restrictions and fear of investors was probably slightly delayed by several Months: is still near thSPX, AMZN, and other FAANG ggants are still near ATHs, some of the FinTech and e-commerce companies start to fall. PAYPAL: SQuare: Conclusion + Investment Thesis: 1) Be very carefull with catching the falling knife. Wait for pure Buy signals and signals of reversal at least at 3D/1W charts. Also consider buying only with very good RRRatio + clear setup. 2) China could be very good oportunity for short term BUY-LONG setups when you will be able to count all subwaves of Wave A but still be very carefull. (Around 1-3 months from now). 3) US and western - world conutries will probably continue to fall in dozens of % DOWN. (US is delayed, it could take around 3-6 months to reach bottom and point of maximum fear of retail and small VC investors.) Patience folks, patience.
OTC:TCEHYShort
by Longevity_Contrarian
3
Short Term Long; Long term ShortIt's clear Baba's RSI on the weekly is forming a base, as well as coming into a long term support trend. When the overwhelming majority are looking short/bearish the scales then tilt and no one is left to sell and only buyer are left to drive up price action. Short term accumulation zone is $75-95, buying long term LEAPS for March 2023. Not financial advise; short term if Baba establishes a minor trend change it will likely run. Keep in mind it will not be out of the woods until we clear $180-200, at which point the fib retract will favor a symmetrical triangle over the potential descending triangle currently being formed. Conclusion: Baba's chart has a lot of work to do before it can change the long term trends, however sentiment is overwhelmingly negative regarding sentiments that do not affect the companies fundamentals. I see a great entree level at present moment with take profits at $125 & 150 Trust the charts and ignore the media FUD, price actions is king! GLHF!!
NYSE:BABA
by ashkonnn
CHINA THE GREAT COLLAPSE pulled 786 of the 12 yr bull market Well whats next . so far china 12 yr bull market with growth of 7 % or more has just drop a fib pull back to .786 and to match the what was called the GREAT BEAR MARKET CRISIS it drop then 72.5 % this world match it a target of 5840 to 5750. is the rest of the world to catchup or we about to see an event my next major spiral turn which also my fib cycle event march 25 plus or minus 1 day so far these are the past turn dates 3/18/ 21/2020 low 9 2 2021 a top for most market 1/27th 2022 +or - 1 a low . feb 16/18 flat 3/25/22 is a minor date for 3/21 2022 and 5 spirals I stand by a world event on or about this date
NASDAQ:HXC
by wavetimer
CHINA COMPOSITE INDEX China and future expansion. BTCWho doesn't understand what this Chinese index is. The SSE Composite Index is one of the most important indices in Asia. The SSE Composite Index has been calculated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange since 1990. The SSE Composite Index includes shares of all companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in lists A and B. Conventionally all these companies can be divided into several main sectors: finance, materials, production, energy, food products, health care and telecommunications. The financial sector is the undisputed leader, followed by companies in the manufacturing sector. The SSE Composite is an excellent barometer of the Chinese economy because it is calculated on the basis of daily share prices. The chart has a large timeframe of 1 month. A huge symmetrical triangle with a base of about 470% has formed on top of the trend. At the moment the index value is cornered with minimal volatility, we are in the final phase of forming the figure. Soon there should be a decoupling, perhaps a "steam down" before a new run. 13 . It is worth noting that the Paralympic Winter Games in China end on March 13. Perhaps after they are over, China and not only (it is first of all) will move to intensify its "military exercises" and statements. Recall, 20 02 2022 (22222) ended the Winter Olympic Games in China (not the Paralympic), and 24 02 2022 Russia (unofficially with Belarus) began a sharp phase of exercises in Ukraine. In fact, the launch and preparation of the "non-exercise" began 22 02 2022 (222222). China may repeat it and it will naturally have a very strong effect on its indices and economy. Bitcoin will react very strongly for obvious reasons. The wealth of the Chinese is not comparable to that of the Russians. Also note how the head and shoulders were formed before the triangle began to form. Which has a very strong resemblance to the price formation on the BTC/USD pair at the moment (July-March). Make a comparison. Then, as you can see, there was just a vertical increase in the index (the Chinese economy) by a fantastic 470% from quite high values initially. That's the kind of thing few people expected at the time. The comparison with bitcoin and the former index values before the vertical rise of 2005-2007 is just an observation no more, but very illustrative. BTC/USD Main Trend. Timeframe 1 month. Notice what zone the price is in now. BTC/USD Now 07 2021 - 03 2022 Timeframe 1 week. CHINA COMPOSITE INDEX Timeframe 1 month. Comparable area before a fantastic vertical rise of a huge percentage. CHINA COMPOSITE INDEX Projection of achieved index targets to potential targets with the same % on BTC/USD
C
by SpartaBTC
4
Is the Evergrande crisis over?The looming collapse of China Evergrande Group (HKG:3333), the world’s most indebted property developer, has roiled financial markets for months, threatening a contagion with far-reaching implications on China and the wider economy. In the early months since Evergrande’s financial crisis came to light, Beijing stayed mum on the issue, although the People’s Bank of China pumped billions of yuan in liquidity in what was seen as an attempt to quell liquidity concerns. Over this time, Evergrande’s stock price slipped 95%, from ~25HKD to ~1.5HKD, where it has stagnated for all of 2022. Evergrande’s massive debt pileup Evergrande, once China’s second-largest real estate developer, is drowning in more than $300 billion in debts to suppliers, contractors, creditors and investors. The company’s crisis partly stemmed from the introduction of Beijing’s "three red lines" rule in 2020 that made it harder for developers to seek bank financing to fund their projects. Another Lehman Brothers moment The large exposure of Chinese banks like Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank to Evergrande prompted many financial watchers to predict that Evergrande's debt crisis could extend beyond China’s property and financial markets, warning that it could spill over to the global markets similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse that resulted in the 2008 global financial crisis. These fears intensified as Evergrande missed payments on a number of onshore bonds. The world’s three major credit rating agencies have already declared the developer to be in default after missing on its bond interest payments late last year. However, some analysts have played down concerns of Evergrande being the next “Lehman moment,” as they expect Beijing’s policymakers to prevent the crisis from being a systemic risk. Beijing steps in to limit fallout To minimize the potential impact of Evergrande’s looming collapse, Beijing has stepped up its efforts, but without a state-led bailout in sight. Back in October, the Chinese central bank said the risk of Evergrande’s liabilities spilling over to the country’s financial sector is "controllable,” while confirming reports that relevant government agencies and local governments have been carrying out risk disposal and resolution work to mitigate a potential contagion. In recent weeks, a number of news outlets reported that some banks in China have lowered mortgage rates, offered subsidies and allowed developers to access their funds on escrow in an attempt to revive the housing market. Beijing also started urging state-owned developers to acquire some projects of troubled builders to help ease the sector’s liquidity crunch. Fitch Ratings recently said Chinese developers are poised to see more small-scale mergers and acquisitions and the impact on buyers’ leverage are predicted to be small "as they select projects with promising returns." Light at the end of the tunnel It may take months or years for the property sector to recover as developers continue to struggle with a cash crunch that prevents them from meeting their debt obligations. However, with Beijing’s subtle approach in reviving the property market, Evergrande’s recovery may be drawing near. In February, new home prices in 100 cities in China rose for the first time in two months, further recovering from the slump in November when prices contracted for the first time since 2015. Policy reforms could encourage home-buying this year as the government included the healthy development of the real estate sector in its government work report unveiled by Premier Li Keqiang over the weekend. Li said authorities will seek to promote the commercial housing market and stabilize house prices this year. Foreign investors that purchase bonds and other securities from Chinese builders should closely monitor developments surrounding Beijing’s policies for the sector.
HKEX:3333
by BlackBull_Markets
China Hang Seng Index - Bleeding closer to stop at 22200 - 225002021 has been insanely a difficult year of US investors invested in Chinese stocks due to the uncertainty revolving around the Tech crackdown, stock delisting, etc.. While the US and India market have been on hyper bull run, Chinese stock holders have lost more than 50-90% of their investment. Example, BABA is more than 60% down, education stocks GOTU & TAL are 95% down. Lot folks are nervous, holding bags with deep losses, staring at uncertainty. I have some good news for them, the bleeding is going to stop in next 2-4 months. I have gone all the way back to 1999 chart, looking at the major crashes. There's a strong support trend line that connects all these bottoms, the next one is pretty close. HSI should bottom out around 22200-22500 and then pick up for another massive bull run. Money will flow out of US markets to China, as the Fed tightens the policy and start raising interest rates. Chinese stocks are dead cheap now, and might drop a littler further, but long investors can start accumulating the good quality companies like BABA, BIDU, JD, etc.. Risk vs Reward ratio is very high. CMP - 23618 , short term target 22500 - 22200 , long term target breach ATH in 2-3 years.
HSI:HSILong
by gmaster29
PROSUS (1D) - Waiting for DIPHello Traders, Prosus act as a Fund which is holding around 28% of TENCENT shares + some other interesting businesses (like e-commerce, food delivery, Payment systems, Elearning platforms) ... For long term hodling this could be interesting pick. But is the Price correct right now or should we wait with Buy orders ? CHart should show it all. We can see sometjhing like impulsive waves 1-3 are alredy visible withtiny wave 2. So currently finished triangle could be wave 4. = Market is hesitating if the price is alredy good for Long. Hopefully there will be another leg down to green support zone. There could be our Low Risk / High Reward setup to enter LONG position. (For LONG term !!) short term it could dip deeper. ;) Patience folks. Trade safe.
EURONEXT:PRXLong
by Longevity_Contrarian
Covid in 2020, Inflation in 2021, Geopolitics in 2022The Chinese New Year just passed, and we are now in the year of the Tiger. “May you live in interesting times” is often considered the translation of a traditional Chinese curse. Markets reflect the economic and political landscapes In 2021 rising inflation was at the center of the stage Inflation will continue to impact markets in 2022 and beyond Geopolitical concerns are rising- China and Russia become allies at the Winter Olympics Iran and North Korea pose threats- Significant moves could come from geopolitical events over the coming months In early 2022, the world continues to suffer from COVID-19 variants and the fallout from economic and political policies that addressed the global pandemic. Markets are nervous with choppy price action in markets across all asset classes. The stock market has been threatening to correct to the downside, and bonds have declined on the back of the prospects of rising interest rates. Cryptocurrency volatility continues to be at head-spinning levels. Commodities remain in mostly bullish trends, but bull markets rarely move in straight lines. As we learned in early 2020, the most significant market volatility comes from unexpected events. In early 2022, the world is anything but a stable place as tensions are mounting and the US’s role as the leader of the “free world” is challenged. In 2020, the pandemic caused wild markets price swings across all asset classes. The central bank and government tools addressing COVID-19’s economic fallout dominate markets in 2021. In 2022, the geopolitical landscape appears to be the factor that could cause lots of uncertainty and price variance. Markets reflect the economic and political landscapes We follow trends as they reflect the crowd’s wisdom. The old sayings “buy the rumor and sell the fact,” or “sell the rumor and buy the fact,” refer to the market’s habit of fading news leading those who follow the news to lose. Over time, macro and microeconomics and the geopolitical landscape determine the path of least resistance of prices. However, market volatility can cause dramatic short-term moves that defy rational, logical, and reasonable fundamental analysis. In early 2022, markets continue to emerge from the global pandemic. The impact of monetary and fiscal policy tools that stabilized economic conditions has significantly impacted markets that will long outlive the pandemic. Moreover, geopolitical dynamics are shifting, increasing the threat of hostilities across the globe. The pandemic caused market volatility in 2020 and 2021, but in 2022, the price variance could increase as the economic and political landscapes are creating more than a bit of uncertainty, and markets hate uncertainty. In 2021 rising inflation was at the center of the stage In 2021, inflationary pressures rose to the highest level in four decades. The consumer price index rose by 7%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 5.5%. The producer price index increased by nearly 10%. US GDP also moved appreciably higher. The Fed did absolutely nothing as inflation rose, blaming the economic condition on “transitory” pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks. However, a four-decade high caused the central bank to realize that inflation was more structural than temporary. At the November and December FOMC meetings, the rhetoric became more hawkish, but while the Fed talked a good game, the only change came as they began tapering quantitative easing. Tapering was not tightening as the central bank continued to purchase debt securities. In early 2022, the hawkish squawking increased in volume at the January meeting, but QE will not end until early March, setting the stage for liftoff from a zero percent short-term Fed Funds rate. In 2021, asset prices increased with double-digit percentage gains in the leading stock market indices, commodities, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and other assets. Inflation erodes money’s purchasing power, so the increases in asset prices were a mirage as they reflected the decline of fiat currency values. About halfway through 2021, the US government bond market began screaming that the Fed was behind the inflationary curve. As the chart highlights, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell from the July 2021 167-04 high to 159-31 at the end of December 2021. In early 2022, the long bond’s decent continues with the bonds trading to a low of 150-26 last week, the lowest level since May 2019. The move below technical support at the July 2019 152-28 low could be a gateway to a test of the 2018 136-16 bottom, meaning inflation will continue to push interest rates higher. Inflation will continue to impact markets in 2022 and beyond Last week, we found out that CPI rose by 7.5% in January 2022 with the core reading up 6% as inflation continues to rise. Crude oil is trending towards $100 per barrel, and other prices continue to appreciate. Bull markets in commodities reflect inflationary pressures, but they rarely move in straight lines. Raw material markets tend to be far more volatile than stocks or bonds, but they are inflationary barometers. All signs point to a continuation of higher lows and higher highs in the commodities asset class. At the end of last week, gold was above the $1800 pivot point and threatening to break out to the upside. Gold is the ultimate inflation barometer, and the price has been making lower highs and higher lows since March 2021. Like a tightly coiled spring, the wedge pattern in the gold market suggests that a substantial move is on the horizon. Since the turn of this century, every price correction in the gold market has been a buying opportunity. The odds continue to favor the upside when gold abandons the $1800 pivot price. Inflation is a challenging beast as it creates a vicious cycle that pushes prices higher and fiat currencies lower. In early 2022, the supply chain, labor shortages, and rising input costs continue to pour fuel on the inflationary fire. The shift in US energy policy handed crude oil’s pricing power back to the international oil cartel and Russia. Higher oil prices increase input and transportation costs. Addressing climate change by supporting alternative and renewable energy sources is a multi-decade program. The current US administration is not prepared to increase oil and gas production to lower traditional energy prices. Energy is a root cause of inflation, and the current course of monetary policy tightening is not likely to reduce inflation if oil prices continue to rise in 2022. With core CPI at the 6% level, the Fed would need to increase the Fed Funds rate by twenty-five basis points twenty-three times to push real short-term interest rates into positive territory. The latest FOMC forecasts of a 0.90% Fed Funds rate in 2022 and 1.60% in 2023 means real rates will remain negative, fueling inflation over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, the Fed is in an unenviable position as higher rates will cause the cost of funding the $30 trillion debt to soar. Each twenty-five basis point increase costs $75 billion in debt servicing costs each year. At a 5.5% Fed Funds Rate the price tag is a staggering $1.65 trillion per year. The bottom line is that the US central bank and government are unwilling to swallow the bitter pill necessary to address inflation, which will continue to rise. Just as in all markets, the trend is higher, and it is always your best friend, even when it is devastating for the economy. Geopolitical concerns are rising- China and Russia become allies at the Winter Olympics The US faces more problems on the economic landscape. We may remember the 2022 Beijing Olympics as a watershed event, not for athletics, but a meeting between the Chinese and Russian leaders. President Xi pledged support to President Putin over Ukraine. With over 100,000 Russian troops at Ukraine’s border, it may only be a matter of time before an incursion. The US and Western Europe consider Ukraine part of a free Eastern Europe, and Russia believes the country is eastern Russia. A Chinese and Russian alliance complicates NATOs defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Meanwhile, China is committed to reunification with Democratic Taiwan. Presidents Xi and Putin also agreed that the US should not interfere with Chinese plans to bring Taiwan under its umbrella. An alliance between China and Russia over Ukraine and Taiwan has far-reaching geopolitical consequences as it could render sanctions impotent. Russia agreed to supply oil and gas to China via its pipeline system, which fills Russia’s pockets with funds and fuels China’s economy and growth. US allies in Europe and worldwide depend on Russia and China for commodity flows and commerce. The western alliance that supports sovereignty for Ukraine and Taiwan weakens as Chinese and Russian ties strengthen. Iran and North Korea pose threats- Significant moves could come from geopolitical events over the coming months The rise of China and Russia comes at the expense of the United States, the current leader of the free world. Moreover, it encourages US enemies worldwide. Iran continues to enrich uranium as the Biden administration attempts to negotiate a nuclear non-proliferation agreement. The US has an ulterior motive as higher oil prices make increased Iranian production attractive in the current environment. Higher oil prices strengthen Iran’s negotiating position in dealing with the US and Europe. Over the past weeks, North Korea has been test-firing rockets, moving forward with its nuclear weapons program. The hermit nation is now a nuclear power with weapons of mass destruction that could reach the US. Chinese and Russian cooperation only enhances North Korea’s position as an emerging nuclear power. The bottom line is that markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscape. Uncertainty in early 2022 is at the highest level since the Cold War. As Russia increases its global sphere of influence, it is now the most powerful OPEC+ nonmember, making production decisions alongside Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Russian allies in Cuba and Venezuela are close to US territory, posing a substantial threat to the US mainland if a war in Europe is on the horizon. Aside from conventional military hostilities, technology has created new weapons that could draw the entire world into conflicts. COVID-19 dominated markets in 2020, and rising inflation was at the center of the stage in 2021. In 2022, the geopolitical landscape has become a minefield of potential problems likely to impact markets across all asset classes. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Andy_Hecht