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Black Swan - US-China Phase 1 DealSpeculation for Macro: - 2018: Trump began trade war with China, and the market had the worst year in a decade (at the time). - 2020: US-China Phase 1 deal is signed, market crashes shortly after. - 2021: Market immediately rebounds and has the greatest bull market in history. IMO it was a run-up then sell the news by insiders, then BTD for the bull run to come. That deal is to expire 2022, and will likely be assessed soon. Check out the behavior of SKEW/VVIX/PCR right before the Trade Deal... Does somebody know something? Even if it is renewed, it is bullish long term but very likely a big flush for insiders to BTD. If China withdraws, it's recession - returning to a situation similar to 2018 with a tariff tit-for-tat except with current supply chain issues, pandemic, massive debt levels, and slowing global economy. One part of the deal entails China refraining from competitive devaluation of their currency. However, US is devaluing their currency through inflation (speculated). That is bullish for US equities, but CNYUSD is now at the top of a range: Should the deal expire, and China devalues their currency, the US will need to respond with more debt. Can the world handle more debt? Phase 1 Deal: www.reuters.com Full text found here: web.archive.org GLHF - DPT
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
8
NIO Sprints Back into Growth Mode – No Regulatory Risk Thus FarNIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, up 124.48% year-on-year, down 2% month-on-month. ● We estimate NIO's 2022 revenue to show the value of the stock. ● The methodology includes a car sales forecast and average selling prices. ● Our evaluation indicates that the stock is currently fairly priced. ● None of the currently acute regulatory risks apply to NIO. Introduction NIO, China's arguably most successful EV startup, saw an incredible performance both business-wise and in the capital market. More investors have joined the camp of those bullish about the electric car maker's prospects. In 2021, NIO has been solidifying a high premium profile in China, launching a new model, the ET7. NIO has also recently started shipping the ES8 to Norway, with global expansion ambitions. This article follows an approach similar to that we used in our latest Xpeng analysis, estimating the value of the stock based on its projected future sales performance. Revenue estimation In this section, we will project NIO's revenue by 2030 and use the 2022 figure to evaluate the stock's current investment potential. The revenue will be calculated by multiplying projected car deliveries with average selling prices. The calculation of whole fleet (including ES6, EC6, ES8 and ET7) sales is based on a top-down methodology. It starts with a forecast of light vehicle sales in China. According to CAAM (link in Chinese), China's light-vehicle sales will hit 22.2 million in 2021. Under an assumption of slowing economic growth affecting the auto market, we estimate the growth rate will decline to 4% gradually. The market will reach 32.6 million in 2030. Speaking of the market share, we assume NIO can reach 2.4% of the total market by 2030. It results from the fact that William Li, the founder of NIO, has aligned the company's goals with those of iconic brands like Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi. We linearized that number and estimated NIO's 2022 market share and deliveries, which will account for 0.6% and 152,066 units, respectively. To calculate the revenue, we also need to project the average selling price (ASP). Historically, NIO's ASP has been declining as new models have been rolled out. This trend will continue, whereas we think the ASP will remain higher than CNY 300,00 per vehicle. We set a declining rate for ASP calculation, from -2% in 2021 to -0.5% in 2030. The ASP in 2022 will be CNY 328,000. Per this projection, NIO's 2022 vehicle sales will be CNY 50 billion. Apart from car sales, NIO also generates revenue from selling charging facilities and related services, data, insurance and merchandise. These segments have correlated to vehicle sales and shown a faster growth pace. Thus, we project a slightly increasing percentage of revenue from selling them. In 2020, the number was 6%, and we allocated 7% and 9% for 2022 and 2030, respectively. In total, NIO is expected to make CNY 53.5 billion (USD 8 billion) in revenue in 2022. Similar to our Xpeng analysis, we multiplied NIO's PS ratio in 2022 by nine (referring to the Street's average expectations). Its fair market capitalization target is thereby around USD 74 billion. Risks NIO has recently been indirectly involved in the regulatory crackdown-related narrative. We think investors' massive selling may insignificantly hurt the company's business. To specify all the possible risks, we summarize all the incidents concerning Chinese concept stocks within this year. The antitrust and other new regulations are the key obstacle imposed by the central government. Some famous 'victim' cases include Tencent Music's copyrights, Alibaba's 'pick one from two' strategy and Meituan's rider employment and other issues. Obviously, the NEV market in China is still in its infancy (compared with ICE cars). NIO is certainly not a monopoly. Data/cybersecurity concerns are also not suitable for NIO. In early July 2021, it was reported that Didi Global had illegally collected users' personal data. Clearly, the ride-hailing giant possesses huge chunks of users' travel information. However, NIO is also collecting data that seems less significant than important route data handled by legitimate third-party providers like map products of Baidu and the likes of AutoNavi. NIO and its peers won't see anything like what happened to the country's edtech industry either: the central government, which is ''seeking to decrease workloads for students and overhaul a sector that has been 'hijacked by capital,'" is rather interested in the nationwide EV adoption. In short, NIO, much like any local EV maker, is not exposed to these major risks. Apart from regulatory risk, supply chain issues are worth discussing. The issues seem to remain controllable, but investors need to keep eyes on them – the component shortage will be a hot topic in the upcoming Q2 earnings calls. Conclusion Among Chinese concept stocks, NIO is a company with a solid product line, growing sales and great prospects. The stock has gone down and has remained volatile since the beginning of 2021. Suffering from the chip shortage, it is currently fairly priced. And is well set to gain more in the following quarters. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NYSE:NIOLong
by EqualOcean
1
Farmmi Set to Capitalize on New Wellness TrendsStriving to vertically integrate its business, the company has been preparing for a major boost. ● Farmmi has a long record of unstable financial performance. ● The company's solid supply chain system and business model can integrate online and offline platforms and trigger potential future growth. ● Along with the public's increasing health awareness, Farmmi can seize more opportunities to build extensive global networks and explore new products, like fungi-based snacks. ● The share price of the company is currently hovering at low levels, which might provide investment opportunities in the middle term. Farmmi (FAMI:NASDAQ) is a Chinese agriculture products provider that mainly processes and sells, as of July 2021, four different kinds of products: Shiitake mushrooms, wood ear (or Mu Er) mushrooms, other edible fungi and other packaged dried fungi. The company runs both an e-commerce platform and offline stores. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in a small city in east China, Farmmi is experienced in forming alliances with local family farms that allow the company to offer products to restaurants, cafeterias, local specialty stores, as well as through distributors. Here, we analyze this small share opportunity and discuss the company's potential. Quality – volatile profitability and cash flow generation Farmmi's financials have lately been somewhat unstable. The revenue has been growing slowly – and even declined in 2020; operating income peaked in 2018 and has kept declining since. Farmmi's net income has also shown high volatility. Since 2015, the company has been reporting unstable and negative operating cash flows. Basically, it delivered unfavorable financials all the way after its IPO in February 2018. What is more, the company's capital expenditure kept growing, but the limited value has been generated, resulting in a downward-moving return on capital. Growth – optimistic trends and industry dividends Despite Farmmi underperforming in the past years, investors should not be overly concerned about the lasting effects on the company's future development. We believe the company has a more positive side on financial growth and cash flow stability that will reflect in its future growth. As mushrooms and fungi are categorized as 'wellness food,' Farmmi focuses on such products, exploring overseas markets. Now, 94% of the company's revenue is generated domestically, while 6% comes from international markets, including the United States, Japan, Canada and the Middle East. An insider has informed EqualOcean that Farmmi's top executives have recently been actively building networks and seeking major brand cooperation to further expand in the North American market this year. By May 2021, Farmmi had raised USD 7.4 million of post-IPO financing to fund its business expansion. What is more, with the decreasing price of raw materials and improving cost control capabilities, Farmmi is expected to report better operating margins. So far, the figures have never fallen below the peer average level. Unlike many traditional agriculture producers in the space, Farmmi has been utilizing trendy tools, like web-based products, to ensure its future competitiveness. The recently raised funds are leveraged by the company to enhance its e-commerce capabilities, IT and supply chain systems. These capital expenditures and the integration of online and offline business models may generate more income for the company. The entire industry will release more dividends for Farmmi as well. The Chinese fungi market has been constantly growing since the noughties, providing growth momentum for Farmmi. The health and wellness trend has also expanded the market capacity for mushroom and fungi-based snacks, which Farmmi is building its future strategy around. For most food companies, it is almost impossible to survive for over ten years without a solid supply chain system, technology support and cost and risk management abilities. Paying close attention to these aspects, Farmmi is poised to ride the global wellness trend with the increasing fungi consumption. Price Momentum – upward The stock of Farmmi seems to be currently undervalued. Without any warning signs in its financial performance, the share price has been going down since it went public in 2018, reached the lowest level ever. As a small Chinese food brand, Farmmi might have less recognition among global investors, and we expect this situation to continue in the near future. However, the big picture appears brighter, as the company its making progress in cost control, harnessing technology and has a lot of room for development – both geographically and scope-wise. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NASDAQ:FAMI
by EqualOcean
EVK "Fibbin" again?EVK hasn't been a stranger to big moves quickly. Nor has it been a stranger to the 382 Fib level either. Now the second time it's tested this area, EVK continues to fail to break and hold above it (as of right now). While there's still a clear uptrend with higher lows, there's a pretty important level that may be of interest right now which is the 50 fib line. It's in "no man's" land after today's spike and looking for some solid support is going to be important for longs. If it does settle around this level, it would be the first time it's established support above the 618 fib line in quite some time. We'll have to see how much follow-through, if any, is in play heading into August. "The main reason for this move comes as the China-based clothing supplier and retailer announced that it would be repurchasing roughly $5 million worth of its shares. 'We believe our stock is a good value, and the Board’s approval of this stock repurchase program is recognition of the long-term prospects in our Company’s intrinsic value and the undervalued price of our stock. Repurchasing stock underscores our commitment to enhancing shareholder value and demonstrates confidence in our business.' - The CEO of EVK, Mr. Yihua Kang. For some added context, Ever-Glory International is the first Chinese apparel company to be listed on a U.S. stock exchange. It offers several brands that cater to middle-high end customer markets. As a vertical company in this market, Ever-Glory is able to control all aspects of its day-to-day operations." Quote Source: 4 Hot Penny Stocks to Watch as August Turns Bullish
E
by PennyStocks101
Li Auto Inc. Delivered Record 8,589 Units in JulyLi Auto added more than 10,000 orders in June, a record high, the company previously said. Li Auto delivered 8,589 units of the Li ONE in July, the first time deliveries exceeded 8,000 units in a single month, up 251.3 percent year-over-year and 11.4 percent from June. Li Auto currently has only one model, the Li ONE, on sale, with total deliveries of 38,743 units in the first seven months of the year, bringing cumulative deliveries to date to 72,340 units, according to data released by the company on Sunday. "Before the end of the year, we will also launch a heavy-weight OTA upgrade that will take Li ONE's competitiveness to a whole new level," said Li Auto co-founder and president Shen Yannan. Li Auto's direct retail system construction is accelerating, with plans to have 200 direct retail centers covering more than 100 cities in China by the end of 2021, the company said. As of July 31, Li Auto had 109 retail centers in China, covering 67 cities, and 176 after-sales repair centers and authorized sheet metal spraying centers, covering 134 cities. Li Auto released the 2021 Li ONE on May 25 with a starting price of CNY 338,000 (USD 52,300), CNY 10,000 higher than the previous version. Deliveries of the new Li ONE began on June 1. Notably, despite the popularity of the 2021 Li ONE, owners are now beginning to complain about problems with the vehicle. Several Weibo users have recently reported that their Li ONE vehicles are making unusual noises at high speeds, suspected to be emitted by the generator. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NASDAQ:LI
by EqualOcean
Xpeng Delivered Record 8,040 Vehicles in JulyThe company plans to have the P5 officially available in the third quarter of 2021, with deliveries expected in the fourth quarter of 2021. XPeng Motors delivered 8,040 vehicles in July, its highest monthly delivery record, up 228 percent year-over-year and up 22 percent from June. The company's flagship sedan, the P7, delivered 6,054 units in July, the highest monthly delivery record since its launch, XPeng's data released Monday showed. Cumulative deliveries of P7 reached 40,612 units since its launch in July 2020. XPeng's compact SUV, the G3, delivered 1,986 units in July. As of July 31, the company's total deliveries for the year reached 38,778 units, up 388 percent year-over-year. XPeng previously said the P7 sedan with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries has seen strong demand since its launch in March this year. Deliveries of the model began in May, with sales increasing 27 percent in that month compared to April. In March, XPeng announced the launch of the P7 and G3 with LFP batteries, with deliveries of the former starting in May and the latter in April. The new P7 is available in two variants a combined range of 480km. The new P7 is equipped with Xmart OS in-vehicle intelligence system, with the lower-priced version equipped with XPILOT 2.5 + automatic driving assistance system, priced from CNY 229,900 (USD 35,600). The higher-priced version is equipped with XPILOT 3.0 automatic driving assistance system, priced from CNY 239,900. Together with the newly released model with LFP battery, the XPeng P7 is now available in four models: rear-wheel drive standard range, rear-wheel drive long-range, rear-wheel drive extra long range and four-wheel-drive high performance. Their price range covers CNY 229,900 to CNY 339,900. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NYSE:XPEVLong
by EqualOcean
NIO Delivered 7,931 Vehicles in July, Up 124% Year-over-YearNIO's local counterparts, XPeng Motors and Li Auto delivered 8040, 8589 vehicles, respectively, in July. NIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July, up 124.48 percent year-over-year and down about 2 percent from June. The deliveries consisted of 1,702 ES8s, 3,669 ES6s, and 2,560 EC6s. NIO has completed the delivery of 49,887 units in 2021, exceeding last year's full-year delivery. NIO's 100kWh battery pack is deploying to every battery swap station and the delivery of the 100kWh battery pack will significantly ramp up in the coming months, the company said. At the same time, the first batch of ES8 for user delivery has been officially shipped to Norway and is expected to open for ordering and delivery in Norway in September this year, it said. Ahead of the July delivery data was released, a team at Hong Kong-based financial services firm CMB International raised its price target on NIO earlier today, citing marginal improvement in chip supply and the prospect of continued growth in deliveries in the second half of the year. The team raised its price target for NIO by 13.6 percent to USD 52.60 per share, maintaining a buy rating. NIO closed up 4.83 percent to USD 44.68 on Friday and the price target implies an upside of about 18 percent. CMB believes that in the short term, NIO expects to drive sales growth through increased density of battery swap stations. In the long term, NIO's unique business model of separating the vehicle from the battery will contribute to vehicle sales as it focuses on providing quality service to its customers. Local tech media 36kr reported on Friday that Ai Tiecheng, former general manager of WeWork Greater China, has joined NIO to take charge of the company's mass-market-oriented sub-brand, and that a new model could be released in the first half of next year at the earliest. NIO is the only local Chinese brand that has a firm foothold in the high-end market, with a minimum price of CNY 358,000 (USD 55,400). If customers choose its BaaS battery leasing service, the purchase threshold can be lowered by at least RMB 70,000, but they will need to pay a monthly battery rental fee. The latest data from China Automotive Technology and Research Center shows that the average price of NIO vehicles in May was CNY 432,900, higher than BMW's CNY 391,000 and slightly lower than Mercedes' CNY 435,600. The high-end positioning means that NIO's sales could hit the ceiling earlier than its local counterparts XPeng Motor and Li Auto, and the launch of a mass-market-oriented brand is expected to make that ceiling higher. The so-called sub-brand, a mid-to low-end brand independent of the NIO brand, is expected to be priced in the CNY 150,000 (USD 23,200) - 250,000 market, the 36kr report said. "Li is also factoring in the positioning of the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV (priced at around CNY 30,000)," the report said, citing an unnamed source. The Mini EV is the top-selling EV in China, with sales of 29,143 units in June, up 12.56 percent from May, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. NIO's sub-brand will follow the battery swap technology, but will operate through a separate system that includes channels, communities and an app, the 36kr report said. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NYSE:NIOLong
by EqualOcean
BABA case study: Resolution of 200 days correctionToday we want to share our conclusions about the resolution of huge corrective patterns on BABA. One of the key aspects of Technical Analysis is to take advantage of anomalies in historical data; in other words, take advantage of situations that present some degree of repetitiveness to create a probabilistic scenario in our favor, where risking our money is worth. In this case, we observe that after 200 days of correction, there is a specific sequence for bullish continuation movements. 1) Breakout of the structure 2) Clear Throwback (retest of broken structure) another characteristic is that the correction is very steep 3) The breakout of that correction represents a great opportunity in terms of risk-reward ratio if we set our stop loss below that pattern Past behavior is no guarantee of future behavior, and bla bla bla.... That's absolutely true; however, if you are not in favor of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, you can see that there are subtle patterns in price data that we can take advantage of, not by saying, "This or that will happen, but by trying to get exposure to a specific pattern several times (taking the same trade 10 times), that way we can start observing an edge. So, final conclusion in this case study: Now, we will comfortably sit in our chairs, and we will not do anything until the filter we have defined happens. If that's the case, we know exactly how we will trade. If the filter does not happen, guest what... We don't trade; there are more than 2000 stocks that you can wait for a BEAUTIFUL and PREMIUM scenario. Thanks for reading!
NYSE:BABALong
by ThinkingAntsOk
6
2022 Might Be a Winning Year for Xpeng – and the Stock Is FinallOn July 7, 2021, the company was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the code '9868.' We estimate Xpeng's 2022 revenue to show the value of the stock. The methodology includes the forecast of sales of P7, G3&G3i and the upcoming P5 and SUV models. The results indicate that the stock is currently fairly priced Risks primarily come from supply chain and market regulation but remain controllable. With the current global chip shortage, most major auto OEMs have suffered from a lack of electronic supplies. Amid these concerns, China's EV sales are burgeoning, with light EV sales hitting 241,000, or 15% of total light vehicles sales in June, 2021. Among the country's EV pioneers, Xpeng (XPEV:NYSE) has recently presented some positive results: its half-year delivery number has surpassed last year's figure. This article presents a forecast of the company's EV sales in 2022 and evaluates its stock by analyzing each model of Xpeng and using the valuation multiples. Model-level breakdown P7 is Xpeng's hit product. Simplifying the modelling, we project the sales of P7 to increase by 184, 100 and 50 units month-on-month until 2023; 184 is the average monthly increase since the model's launch, while the incremental decrease is due to the upcoming P5 and 2022 SUV models. The average selling price will be around CNY 250,000, the same as in 2020. G3&G3i are the oldest models of Xpeng. The updated version G3i transformed into a more unified family design and attracted more sales. We estimate G3 and G3i will keep lifting sales volume by 46 per month during the same period. The average selling price will be around CNY 150,000 per unit. P5 will shoulder the company's expectations to become a family sedan. We estimate P5's first-month delivery number in October will be at around 1,000, referring to P7's data. Then the delivery figure will increase by 143 units per month, of which 100 will be at the cost of P7 sales declining, as the two models compete with each other, and 43 is organic growth. Based on the official price starting from CNY 160,00 to 230,000, we predict the ASP will be at CNY 190,000. Xpeng is planning to launch a new SUV model. The SUV has a family design 'X' logo that brings its length to 4,800 mm. The car design shares the same platform as the P7, the Edward platform. In addition, it will be equipped with premium specifications like XPilot 4.0 and air suspension. Some industry experts predict the price will be around CNY 300,000. We assume Xpeng will finish its launch day by September 2022. The first-month sale will be 300 units, which will increase by 145 units per month similar to the sales trajectory of NIO's ES6. Apart from EV sales, other services will account for 5% of total revenue. The 2022 EV sales won't be significantly impacted by the chip shortage. To sum up, Xpeng's 2022 revenue is projected to reach USD 4.3 billion (CNY 28 billion). Specifically, the company will sell 122,253 vehicles to make USD 4.1 billion topline, and USD 0.25 billion will be from other services. According to the Street's expectations, the stock is priced at 16, 8.8, 5.6, 4, 2.9 forward PS ratios by 2025. We select 9x as the 2022 multiples. Thus, the market cap will be USD 38.7 billion, around 10% up from the market cap on July 27, 2021. Risks Although the expectations for Xpeng are rather bright, the whole industry is facing the chip shortage problem – that is also the biggest threat to Xpeng. For NEV companies, production is challenging while orders are packed. Through our research, we found that most auto stakeholders in China expect the imbalance to last through 2021, affecting the global light-vehicle sales by 2.5-5.0%, but recover slightly in 2022. The edtech sector's regulatory update drove the recent sell-off in Chinese concept stocks. However, this crackdown won't be a long-term issue for EV innovators like Xpeng. According to Bloomberg, the government's motivation is to cut family workloads to turn the declining birth rates up. On the other hand, the 'Made in China 2025' scheme supports EV development radically. So the policy will rather play a positive role in the new energy vehicle market in the long term. Conclusion Up to the present, Xpeng has been on the right track, leveraging business through unified family designs, new stores opening, capacity boost and charging facilities build-up. The company's 2022 revenue would be a realistic basis for stocks to start. The most significant potential risk at present is the capacity problem caused by supply chain shortages. Investors should keep an eye on this topic in the company's upcoming Q2 earnings conference. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NYSE:XPEVLong
by EqualOcean
1
China BigTech - KWEB ETF☝ KWEB - ETF of Chinese tech giants. It is traded on ARCA, but managed by a Chinese bank, so there is no threat of delisting. Price is at the bottom of the channel. Most likely it will be a bottom and there will be a reversal up at least 50% towards the resistance line of $70 by February 2022. The upcoming bullish reversal is confirmed by the MACD-histogram, which is already in a bullish divergence. However, in February 2021, there was a 19.83% move up from the channel. Such a pull-out can be repeated down to the $40 support line. Not a financial recommendation. GET RICH OR DIE TRYIN
AMEX:KWEBLong
by Dr_Chester
1
BEKE KE Holdings. ARK sold all its 9Mil sharesIn a selloff that can predict a new market valuation on Chinese stocks, ARK Invest sold all its 9 139 000 shares of BEKE. Looking at its financials, BEKE is not a bad stock to own at at price lower than its IPO. The company had revenue increase year over year in the last 4 years, but only in 2020 went profitable with 2.78Bil Earnings. They also have a decent PE Ratio (TTM) : 39.71 The question is: would you buy now what ARK sold for a loss?? Even Buffett was wrong when he sold Delta Airlines or Icahn about Hertz! Jim Cramer (Mad Money) on China's tech crackdown: You can't own Chinese stocks! It seems dangerous to hold Chinese stocks right now. US-listed Chinese companies have three years to comply with US accounting oversight, to comply with the rules of accounting and transparency that American public companies must follow, if not they will get delisted. This looks like the beginning of China`s stock market crash. I`m looking forward to read your opinion about this!
NYSE:BEKE
by TopgOptions
8