China
SINOSTAR PEC Analysis 6/25Disclosure: As of 6/24 I am long SINOSTAR PEC SGX:C9Q
Sinostar PEC is a Chinese Petrochemical company listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. They operate through central and northern China. Their main operation is to extract LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) and process it to sell to manufacturers for fuel, scientific, and industrial purposes.
***Please Note: There are many aspects to their operations that any potential investor should know by reading the company's annual report, and of course none of this is to be taken as financial advice.***
- Management effectiveness: The company operates in a cyclical industry and has been consistently growing and profitable since 2014. The return on equity is consistently in above 10% and revenue growth looks stable. Margins have compressed in the last few years (Part of the whole cyclical thing), but that is exactly why I am looking now. Because the craziest thing about this company is the next section.
- Valuation: The company is currently trading at 0.3x Book Value. Price/Earning Ratio of 1.7. Price/Cash Flow of 0.69. You may ask yourself why is the valuation so low? I asked the same thing and can think of risks, but they are all well compensated for in the valuation. The company has a healthy capital position and positive tailwinds. It is always important to consider the risks of currency fluctuations, inflation, increasing cost of goods.
-Summary: Sinostar PEC seems to be a well run company with quality management, trading at very low prices. If you are looking for exposure to the Chinese economy and are comfortable with the risks (Currency fluctuation, Cyclicality, Liquidity, +more). This is one to research and consider.
Copper's Short-Term Demand Woes, Long-Term GapsCopper is known as the electrifying metal.
Copper's warm glow and durable spirit, copper wires the heart of many a machine.
This reddish rarity has been super bullish in the recent past but less so now. That doesn't make it less investable. Just that nuanced investing approach is called for.
Outlook for copper has become mixed once more, with near term demand remaining downbeat given the continued slowdown in the Chinese property market and buildup in copper stock at SHFE. In the longer term, supply challenges risk pushing copper into a supply deficit with major copper miners Codelco and Anglo American facing supply challenges.
Given the mixed outlook, copper has continued to trade in a tighter price range over the past two months. Counter to conventional wisdom, a sideways market also presents opportunities for savvy investors. This paper describes the diverging outlook for the red metal and how investors can deploy a calendar spread using CME Micro Copper futures amid the diverging short and long-term outlook.
CHINESE COPPER INVENTORIES BUILD UP BECAUSE OF DEMAND SLOWDOWN
Chinese copper inventories have surged to one of their highest historical levels. Furthermore, inventories have been rising during the part of the year associated with drawdowns.
Source – Bloomberg
Lower demand is one of the factors behind the increasing inventories. The Chinese real estate sector is a major consumer of copper. With the ongoing slowdown in the sector, copper demand has been hit hard. Moreover, manufacturing sector in China is also experiencing a slowdown as China’s official manufacturing PMI dipped back into contraction in May.
Source: TradingEconomics
Combination of property market slowdown and lower industrial activity is hindering copper demand in the near term.
Furthermore, refined copper production among Chinese copper smelters has remained near all-time high levels over the past few months.
Source: Bloomberg
BULLISH SUPPLY SIDE AND INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY POSE UPSIDE TO COPPER
While near-term demand outlook may be downbeat, the medium- and long-term outlook for copper remain bullish. In the medium term, higher demand from the rapidly growing PV (photovoltaic) manufacturing and EV industry are absorbing some of the higher copper supply.
While both industries have slowed in recent months, analysts expect them to recover. At their current pace of copper consumption, these industries are more than compensating for the slowdown in the property market.
Source: Reuters
Additionally, major copper miners, Codelco and Anglo American are dealing with lower production.
Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, reported a 9.4% decline in production in the latest quarter compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to falling ore grades, water restrictions, union protests, and logistical challenges exacerbated by the global situation, including the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Anglo American also announced plans to reduce its copper production in 2024 as part of a strategy to cut costs and adapt to market conditions.
Lower output from major copper miners is a cause for concern given the rapid pace at which the new energy industries such as EVs and PVs are growing as well as the rapid growth in data centers which require substantial amount of copper. With inadequate supply, copper supplies face the risk of being pushed into a deficit.
ASSET MANAGERS HAVE REVERSED VIEW ON COPPER BULLISHNESS
While asset managers had built up substantial long positions during the sharp rally in copper which took price to an all-time high, they have started to close some of those long positions indicating that in the near-term price may have run ahead of themselves.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Over the past week, September CME options have seen a buildup in puts while calls have declined. The November contract has seen a similar trend. However, the March 2025 contract has seen a surge in call OI.
Source: CME QuikStrike
In a similar vein, CME copper future’s term structure has shifted from a steep contango to backwardation over the last three months. However, over the past week, this has started to shift once more as premium of later contracts over front month has started to rise leading to a steepening term structure.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Given the diverging outlook for copper in the near-term and later term, investors can express a view on the shift in term structure using a calendar spread consisting of CME Micro Copper futures.
The below hypothetical trade setup consists of a long position in Micro Copper futures expiring in March 2025 (MHGH2025) and a short position in Micro Copper futures expiring in August 2024 (MHGQ2024).
Investors can also deploy the same trade setup using CME full-size copper futures. The CME full-size copper futures also provide a margin offset for the trade, a calendar spread with the same contract can be deployed with maintenance margin of USD 2,500 as of 24/June.
The below hypothetical trade setup provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.43x.
Entry: 1.011
Target: 1.055
Stop Loss: 0.98
Profit at Target: USD 492
Loss at Stop: USD 342
Reward to Risk: 1.43x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SIZZLING-YINN-HANDLE!!!! There's been a global paradigm shift As Biden's re-election prospects diminish and recent events are raising concerns. While US and Europe valuations are within fair value range based on forward P/E ratios the tremendous laggard China has turned its corner in cracking the chip after Pres Xi spent about $2T equivalent in US dollar that is a lot but at least he accomplished what he intended when he came in office and announced the "common prosperity initiative" to solve demographic generational chasm from the one child policy before and thee are not enough producers to support the rest and to solve this make home affordable again as children live with their parents until age 55 on average and this is not ideal for starting a family they need their own home. Well fold housing down 95% mission accomplished lol Tech Sector crackdown and sanctions on top of a strong US dollar also beat down China tech index clubbed like a baby seal down 75% . many have contemplated is China investable. We ladies and gentlemen. Bottom Line = YES! .........PLAY BALL!
Notice: Think for yourself before comparing your analysis. Past does not equal future, same goes with price discovery. Leverage ETF products have additional risks and design for short term trading and speculation and someone who has a system with automations and watching the Bloomberg. This is not intended to be a recommendation in absolute. If you do not fully understand please consult an advisor, make sure you have adequate cash reserve and can afford to lose as invest like this leverage 3x so that is a notional value of 300% of a potential 25%83=74% in one handle (move). Remember to cut your losses because it takes a 100% return to break even from a 50% loss. I would expect this trade to take 2 weeks to mature but could take a month and it may be down at first, but the paradigm has changed, and this is the trade for now.
China A50: Potential swing trade longThe China A50 rose over 20% from it January low to earn its 'technical bull market' status. Yet prices couldn't quite reach 13k before embarking on a -7% retracement over the next four weeks. Yet with it showing early signs of stability above support zones, perhaps a swing low is near - if not in place already.
The daily chart shows a bullish engulfing candle on high volume, which respected the 38.2% Fibonacci level and 12k handle. The engulfing day also closed back above the monthly S1 pivot point.
Bulls could seek dips within the engulfing day's range with a stop beneath its low, or 12k for a more conservative entry. 12.5k or the monthly pivot point make an appealing upside target for bulls.
NIO (NIO): High Risk, High Reward - do-or-die!NIO, a stock we've previously analyzed and profited from, remains highly volatile and is currently trending downwards. From its all-time high of approximately $67, it has plummeted to $5.21. This drastic decline occurred over just a bit more than three years, which is relatively short in the stock market.
Several factors contribute to this volatility. Firstly, the automotive sector is inherently volatile. Additionally, the electric vehicle (EV) segment has faced political challenges over the past few years. NIO, being a Chinese company, has also been affected by EU subsidies for electric vehicles, adding to the stock's difficulties.
Despite these challenges, we consider NIO a compelling investment from both a fundamental and technical perspective. Currently, NIO is holding the High-Volume-Node Point-of-Control on the New York Stock Exchange, suggesting that a bottom may be forming. This level is critical to watch as it could indicate potential stabilization and a reversal point for the stock.
Short-Term Analysis
Examining the 4-hour chart for NIO, we observe a low-volume node between $6.32 and $7. Whenever the price entered this zone, it quickly moved through it, indicating the nearest possible resistance levels. Thus, the levels of $6.32 and $7.04 are particularly interesting.
Around $4.12, the Point-of-Control on the 3-day chart holds, but we could see a further decline towards the $3 mark. We are considering multiple entry points, employing a dollar-cost averaging strategy down towards the all-time low of $1.19.
Strategy
For NIO, this seems like a do-or-die situation. The potential upside is significant, with gains of nearly 400% if the price moves from $3 to Wave 4. We plan to place multiple entries and dollar-cost average downwards.
However, if the price falls below $1.20, it would become unsustainable for NIO. While the potential upside is vast, it's important to recognize the risk of the stock continuing to decline towards zero.
Given the current volatility, we find an entry before $3 too risky and volatile, so we are holding off on investment until the price stabilizes at more attractive levels.
CN50 to turnaround?CN50USD - 24h expiry
Price action has continued to trend strongly lower and has stalled at the previous support near 12400.
Momentum is flat, highlighting the lack of clear direction.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 12500 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 12600.
We look to Buy at 12400 (stop at 12340)
Our profit targets will be 12550 and 12600
Resistance: 12500 / 12600 / 12650
Support: 12400 / 12300 / 1250
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
NIO 8 AFTER EARNINGS !! NYSE:NIO
Record Delivery Expectations: NIO shares soared over 9%, hitting $5.40 on record delivery expectations. Analysts foresee surpassing last year's high due to discounts. This indicates a positive market response to NIO's potential performance, which could lead to a higher stock price.
Market Sentiment: The market's response to NIO's earnings reports has generally been positive, with the stock price rising after strong earnings reports. This suggests that if NIO continues to report strong earnings, the market could respond positively, potentially pushing the stock price towards $8.
Strong Quarterly Earnings: NIO has shown strong financial performance in the recent past, with its stock price rising after reporting strong earnings. This indicates a positive market response to its financial performance, which could lead to a higher stock price in the future.
Increased Price Targets by Analysts: Analysts have increased their price targets for NIO, with some predicting a potential rise to $8. These optimistic forecasts suggest that the market and analysts have confidence in the company's future growth and performance.
Positive Industry Outlook: The electric vehicle industry is expected to continue growing, driven by the increasing need for sustainable transportation solutions. As a leading player in this space, NIO is well-positioned to benefit from this industry growth, which could lead to a higher stock price.
Innovative Product Line: NIO is poised to add two sedans to its offerings this year. This expansion of its product line could drive sales and revenue growth, potentially leading to a higher stock price.
USD/CNH: BofA’s Caution, JPM’s WarningsUSD/CNH: BofA’s Caution, JPM’s Warnings
Bank of America (BofA) has expressed caution about betting against the US dollar in the face of recent improvements in sentiment towards China's economic policy stimulus. Recent policy actions by China have sparked optimism, leading to a weakening of the USD. However, BofA advises against making hasty financial moves based on these developments alone.
BofA believes that the effectiveness of Chinese Economic policies in stimulating significant new economic activity remains uncertain. Investors are encouraged to wait for more definitive signs of a sustained recovery in China's credit and property sectors before making significant currency moves.
Just last month, BofA expressed a bearish outlook on several Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, Thai baht, and Vietnamese dong. BofA anticipated sustained depreciation pressures on the yuan into the second half of the year due to several factors particularly due to the delayed easing by the Federal Reserve.
On the other side, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has been continuing his warnings at the JPMorgan Global China Summit in Shanghai. Dimon suggested that the chance of stagflation in the US—a period of stagnant economic growth combined with high inflation—is higher than most people think. Last week, he did not rule out the possibility of a hard landing for the US economy.
JD.com (JD): Key Levels to Watch Amid Potential BreakoutFor the Chinese stock JD.com listed on the Nasdaq, we observe a significant pattern. Initially, we had a prolonged sideways movement that concluded with an initial surge, establishing the current resistance zone. This zone held twice before the price fell through.
Starting from point X in our Elliott Wave count in November 2018, we saw a rapid increase of approximately 470% in a short period. However, this was followed by a steep sell-off, leading to the formation of Wave (2) within a trend channel.
The correction's time horizon places it in the perfect zone, typically between 2 and 2.618 on the higher time frame, which is a good indicator that this could indeed be Wave (2). To continue the upward movement, it is crucial for JD.com to flip this resistance zone.
The current question is whether the price will first return to the High-Volume Node Point of Control (POC) or break out upwards directly. Flipping the support-resistance zone will be key for any significant upward momentum.
We'll be closely monitoring these levels to determine the next move.
Zooming in on the 12-hour timeframe, we can observe the scenario at the end of the assumed Wave (2). This pattern is characteristic of what we like to see at the conclusion of Wave 2. Initially, we experienced an accumulation phase, which transitioned into a manipulation phase, followed by an expansion phase. This sequence is generally a positive sign.
Currently, we are witnessing a pullback after touching the resistance level. Despite this, we maintain our outlook that the price should continue to rise and not retest the $20 mark.
There's a breakout gap that partially filled but remains open near the bottom. This gap formed just before we entered the expansion phase, and it's a critical point to consider.
Given the ongoing volatility in the Chinese market and the uncertainty among investors, we remain cautious. We are closely watching how JD.com behaves within the $24.50 to $26.80 range. With a drop towards the gap close near $21, we will consider making significant buys.
If the price breaks out upwards, we will look for opportunities to enter positions.
THE MOST Bullish chart you will see today!Is of the Shanghai composite.
A beautiful HVF is nearing pattern triggering,.
Early accumulation is probably warranted!
Isn't now the most bearish FUD, over the Chinese economic miracle you have ever seen in a lifetime.
The chart is telling a different story of consolidation of its extreme growth and continuation of it's remarkable rise.
A quadrupling on the index means some of the underling securities will yield life changing gains.
I haven't done any due diligence on individual names
But an #ETF to keep an eye on is #KWEB
Which is a basket of Chinese internet stocks.
JD Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold JD before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of JD prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 35usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $1.29.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CN50 dips continue to attract buyers.CN50USD - 24h expiry
Price action has stalled at good support levels and currently trades just above here (12550).
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 12650 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 12800.
We look to Buy at 12550 (stop at 12450)
Our profit targets will be 12800 and 12850
Resistance: 12650 / 12750 / 12800
Support: 12600 / 12550 / 12500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
China Recovery BetFundamentals & Sentiment
HK50:
- China recovery, based on PMI and GDP QoQ
- The latest China Trade Balance printed decently above the previous one (although below consensus)
USD:
Yesterday's cooling US labor market, based on Initial Jobless Claims increase
Technical & Other
*Chose HK50 instead of ChinaA50 because of smoother price action; eventually HK turned out to be stronger because of the dividend tax cuts for individuals who bought HK shares. China A50 seems to be more vulnerable to geopolitics, like China tariffs in the US.
Technical & Other
Setup: TC(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Up
Long-term: Uptrend
Target: June-August highs
Risk: 1.2%
Entry: Buy Stop
CN50 to continue in the upward move?CN50USD - 24h expiry
The trend of higher lows is located at 11800.
Further upside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 12800 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 12900.
We look to Buy at 12650 (stop at 12550)
Our profit targets will be 12900 and 12950
Resistance: 12800 / 12850 / 12900
Support: 12700 / 12650 / 12600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
CSI300 BULL FLAG ON SUPPORT LOOKS PROMISING. BREAKOUT NEEDED❗️❗️CSI has honored the significant demand zone, suggesting a potential continuation in the rally. The price respecting this highlighted zone coincides with the formation of a bullish flag on lower timeframes, further bolstering our bullish expectations. Notably, a bullish breakout has been confirmed on the formed flag, potentially leading to a rally with the creation of a pullback.
If sufficient volume and pressure emerge, there's a possibility of another bullish breakout on the trend line formed, which is crucial for validating our outlook.
CQQQ May 7th TTR UpdateTheTradersRoom is very long #CQQQ from much lower levels and looking to hold this one till at least we see 2-3x gains on it.
We have entered it first days of Feb and very happy with the result.
China is recovering and Im expecting a perfect inversion alignment to QQQ here into the end of the next year.
It was a clear breakout from the downtrend channel last week. If the broken channel gets tested from above, it will be a perfect opportunity to add into our long position.
Uranium Go Boom!Uranium looks ready to explode higher.
This commodity had a daily chart breakout today and no one is talking about it.
Silently triggering a bullish inverse head and shoulders, this should yield more upside.
I'm looking for this breakout move to be confirmed in the coming days. If it confirms a breakout this will be a likely trade that we can buy the dip on.
China Caixin PMI SummaryChina Caixin PMI Summary
Surveys completed by 650 SME's in China have indicated that China's smaller manufacturing and service providers remain in expansionary mode in April 2024 with all three data releases coming in as expected or higher than expected with readings >50 = Expansionary.
Manufacturing - 51.4
Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024
✅Above expectations of 51
Services - 52.5
Decreased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.5 in Apr 2024
✅In line with expectations of 52.5
Composite - 52.8
Increased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.8 in Apr 2024
✅Above expectations of 52.5
China bottom vs USA | FXI vs SPXWe will continue to beat our fists on the table that Asia has bottomed vs US equities.
simple chart here. FXI (China large cap index) vs SP500
RSI popping out of oversold on the 2M with a nice bull div.
This is setting up for a multi year move. Likely at least the remainder of the decade.
Macro Monday 45~The China Caixin PMI (Manu, Serv & Composite)Macro Monday 45
The China Caixin PMI
(Services and Composite released Today Monday)
Last week week we looked at the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI which will revise today with its updated readings that were released last Tuesday.
We will also look at the China Caixin Services PMI and the Caixin Composite PMI (a combination of the Services and Manufacturing PMI's) as these will both be released later today.
1.Manufacturing PMI – Already released
2. Services PMI – Released Today 6th May 2024
3. Composite PMI Released Today 6th May 2024 (both 1 + 2 combined)
What is the Caixin PMI?
▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly.
▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China.
▫️ Surveys a small sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers and service providers.
Why Focus on China PMI's?
China, the 2nd largest economy in the world at approx. $18 trillion is often referred to as the world’s manufacturing superpower. In 2019, the Chinese manufacturing sector contributed nearly $4 trillion towards the country’s total economic output. Manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of China’s GDP during 2019 demonstrating the importance of manufacturing and the surveys completed by the manufacturers through the Purchaser Managers Index (PMI) surveys. Incredibly, in 2023 China’s manufacturing continued to increase and contributed 31.7% to China GDP, furthermore China’s exports reached record highs of $3.36 trillion. For a country that gets a lot of bad economic press, the economic data from manufacturing and exports suggests China is adaptable and is currently in expansionary territory. This will be further evident from the PMI charts we are about to review also.
Like most PMI’s the data will generally be derived from the following sub indicies; New Orders, Output, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
Reading both PMI’s:
>50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month.
< 50 represents contraction
A reading of 50 indicates no change.
The Charts
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI - APR 2024
✅51.4 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
▫️ Increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024 – Figures for April were released on the 30th April 2024 (last week).
✅The Caixin Manufacturing PMI has remained expansionary for 6 consecutive (Nov 2023 – Apr 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 40.3, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 6 months of expansionary readings.
China Caixin Services PMI - Mar 2024
✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
⏳ April Figures released today (pending)
▫️ Increased from 50.2 in Sept 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024.
✅The Caixin Services PMI has remained expansionary for 15 consecutive months (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 26.5 when services took a huge hit during COVID-19 lockdowns, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 15 months of expansionary readings.
China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI - Mar 2024
✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
⏳ April Figures released today (pending)
THIS IS THE SUBJECT CHART AT OUTSET
▫️ Increased from 50 in Oct 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024.
✅The Caixin Composite PMI has remained expansionary for 5 consecutive months (Nov 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 similar to Manufacturing and Services PMI charts above. Looking at the composite chart, one can see that we moving sideways since Dec 2023 (Dec 52.6, Jan 52.5, Feb 52.5 & Mar 52.7). We are comfortably in the expansionary green zone on the composite.
In Summary
(subject to tomorrow’s readings for the Services and Composite PMI but we assume expansionary)
China Caixin Manufacturing PM I
↗️ Expansionary
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2024 rose to 51.4, marking the sixth straight month of expansion and the fastest growth since February 2023
China Caixin Services PMI
↗️ Expansionary
As of March 2024, the Caixin Services PMI increased slightly to 52.7, indicating growth in the services sector for the 15th consecutive month
(April 2024 Figures Release Today)
China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI
↗️ Expansionary
The Composite PMI reached 52.7 in March 2023, the highest since May 2023, showing the fifth consecutive month of growth in overall private sector activity.
(April 2024 Figures Release Today)
All the above readings suggest a continued expansion across China’s services and manufacturing sectors, reflecting improvements in demand and business activity across the SME cohort.
All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful
Lets get after it again this week 💪🏻
PUKA