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AUD/CAD Analysis: Current Outlook plus fundamental Here's a simplified analysis for AUD/CAD: Long-term view from the weekly chart indicates a bearish trend. Mid-term perspective on the daily chart shows a broken bullish channel, replaced by a bearish one. Considering fundamental factors: Escalating tensions in the Middle East may increase the chance of the Beijing-Taipei conflict, potentially impacting AUD negatively. Long-term, increased oil prices due to these middle-east tensions may favor CAD. Given these factors, AUD/CAD is more likely to maintain a bearish trend over the long term. Stay informed for further developments. Best regards,
Short
by AliSignals
Meituan: Turning Point ⤴️Meituan's price is still trading at the lower end of the magenta Target Zone between HK$96.90 and HK$64. Our primary assumption remains that the stock is already working on the wave 1 rises in turquoise - and that it should soon leave the resistance at HK$103.50 well behind it. However, we must continue to weight the option with a 35% probability that the stock will still undercut our Target Zone in order to complete the correction only below the low of wave alt. (2) in green.
HKEX:3690Long
by MarketIntel
Are we close to peak China pessimism?President Xi Jinping’s New Year address put paid to hopes of much larger stimulus. In his address, President Xi pointed to the consolidation and enhancement of the economic recovery and no signs of a boost from policy coming. Furthermore, China’s economic growth for 2023 came out at 5.2%, above the central government’s 5% forecast, which it boasted it was able to achieve without relying on large stimulus. China’s real GDP growth to slow further in 2024. Investors' pessimism towards China’s economy could be nearing a peak given recent efforts by policymakers to stabilize sentiment. Policymakers acting to stabilize sentiment: China’s policymakers are feeling the need to stabilize investor sentiment and this week have taken two steps in this direction. First, following a recent State Council meeting, Premier Li Qiang suggested help is on the way for China’s beleaguered stock market. Newswire reports suggest this help could include CNY 2.3trn of funds (mainly from SOEs) to buy Chinese equities to prop up the market. Such a measure could help put a bottom on investors’ China pessimism. However, such purchases would not address their underlying concerns including a weak residential property market, local government debts, the lack of policy easing, and the risk of another regulatory clampdown. Second, the PBoC surprised with an RRR cut as well as a cut to its re-lending and discount rates. While I was expecting cuts to both, the size and timing were surprising given the recent disappointment of the PBoC keeping its MLF on hold. The PBoC also sounded dovish suggesting further room to ease policy given the gap between actual and target prices and the Fed’s pivot towards easing. Check out my other ideas:
TVC:HSILong
by Elite_Forex
DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS (Global Conflict Summary EDITION)Per the council of foreign relations, these are the following current global conflicts. I've included a brief description of each conflict. It's important to understand these if you're planning or already are investing in defense stocks. Per TA, I've labeled bearish price targets, bullish price targets, relevant trends. It looks overvalued from analysis on ITA, but there is upside. I'd say that short term probably favors bulls (talking maybe weeks if not less), mid term probably favors the bears (multiple months), long term will likely favor bulls, but it will depend on the movement we see over FEB and March. Global Conflict Summary Americas Criminal Violence in Mexico The criminal violence in Mexico involves various organizations such as Sinaloa, Los Zetas, Tijuana/AFO, Juárez/CFO, Beltrán Leyva, Gulf, La Familia Michoacana, the Knights Templar, and Cartel Jalisco Nuevo Generación (CJNG). The violence is attributed to the increase in crime rates and the limited interventions by the state and municipal police. Instability in Haiti The instability in Haiti involves the government, opposition parties, and the international community. The crisis revolves around the dispute over the presidential term and the government’s inability to control skyrocketing prices of commodities. Instability in Venezuela Venezuela is facing an unprecedented social and humanitarian collapse due to poor economic policies, political conflict, and the international community’s unsuccessful attempts to bring about positive change. The conflict involves the government under President Nicolás Maduro and opposition groups. Asia Instability in Afghanistan Since the Taliban reclaimed control of Afghanistan in 2021, the country has further plunged into political and economic instability. The conflict involves the Afghan government, the Taliban, and various local and international actors. Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea China’s sweeping claims of sovereignty over the sea have antagonized competing countries. The key parties involved in this territorial dispute are China, the Philippines, and the US. North Korea Crisis North Korea could resort to nuclear weapons in a crisis as it is making significant progress toward implementing a more robust nuclear strategy. The crisis involves North Korea, South Korea, the United States, Japan, and other international actors. Instability in Pakistan Pakistan continues to face multiple sources of internal and external conflict. Extremism and intolerance of diversity and dissent have grown, threatening the country’s prospects for social cohesion and stability. The conflict involves the Pakistani government, opposition groups like the Pakistan Muslim League and the Pakistan Peoples Party, and militant groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Conflict Between India and Pakistan Since 1947, India and Pakistan have been involved in a number of wars, conflicts, and military standoffs, with the Kashmir conflict serving as the catalyst for every war between the two states. The conflict primarily involves India and Pakistan, with the disputed region of Kashmir being a major point of contention. Confrontation Over Taiwan Tensions are rising over Taiwan as China’s power and assertiveness grows, competition between the U.S. and China spreads, and the Taiwanese people develop a distinct identity increasingly disassociated from the mainland. The key parties involved in this conflict are China, Taiwan, and the US. Civil War in Myanmar The civil war in Myanmar escalated significantly in response to the 2021 military coup d’état and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests. The conflict involves the National Unity Government, People’s Defence Force, Chinland Defence Force, Chin National Defence Force, Karenni Nationalities Defence Force, and other ethnic armed organizations against the State Administration Council and Tatmadaw. Europe and Eurasia War in Ukraine The war in Ukraine involves Ukraine and Russia. The conflict is over the sovereignty of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, which Russia annexed in 2014. Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict involves Armenia and Azerbaijan. The dispute is over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but is governed by ethnic Armenians. Middle East and North Africa Conflict in Syria The conflict in Syria involves the Syrian government, opposition groups, and various international actors. The civil war began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring protests and has since escalated into a multi-sided conflict involving numerous factions and foreign powers. Instability in Iraq The instability in Iraq involves the Iraqi government, various ethnic and religious groups, and international actors. The conflict stems from sectarian tensions, political instability, and the presence of ISIS. Israeli-Palestinian Conflict The Israeli-Palestinian conflict involves Israel, Palestine, and various international actors. The conflict is over the sovereignty of the Palestinian territories and the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. Sub-Saharan Africa Conflict in the Central African Republic The conflict in the Central African Republic involves the government, various rebel groups, and international actors. The conflict stems from political instability, ethnic tensions, and control over the country’s rich natural resources. Conflict in Ethiopia The conflict in Ethiopia involves the Ethiopian government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and various ethnic and regional groups. The conflict stems from political tensions, ethnic disputes, and disagreements over the country’s system of ethnic federalism. Please note that this is a brief summary and does not cover all aspects of the conflicts. For more detailed information, please conduct further research.
CBOE:ITA
by nicktussing77
Morgan Stanley rated A the Ping An Insurance for secong year Revenue: $156.2 billion Net Income: $14.7 billion Market Cap: $114.8 billion 1-Year Trailing Total Return: ~7.5% Exchange: OTC Markets According to Investopedia, it is the 3rd biggest Chinese company and in the top 5 insurance companies in the world Ping An Insurance provides insurance, financial services, and banking. It is one of the top 50 companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Founded in 1988, it was China's first joint-stock insurance company. Its subsidiaries include Ping An Life, Ping An Property & Casualty, Ping An Annuity, and Ping An Health. Hong Kong and Shanghai, Nov. 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, a powerhouse in the insurance sector, proudly declares its stellar achievement in the latest Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Ratings by Morgan Stanley Capital Investment (MSCI). Securing an A rating for the second consecutive year, Ping An reaffirms its commitment to sustainable practices. Notably, the Group maintains its top-tier position in the multi-line insurance & brokerage industry in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. This accolade underscores Ping An's unwavering dedication to excellence and responsible corporate citizenship. Investors take note of Ping An's remarkable ESG track record as it continues to lead the way in the industry. Ping An takes proactive steps in addressing climate change challenges, utilizing its integrated finance capabilities to advance green finance initiatives and support China's ambitious targets of achieving "carbon peak and neutrality in 2030 and 2060 respectively." In responsible investment, Ping An implements the active ownership principle, integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors into research, analysis, and investment decisions. The company actively oversees and participates in ESG management for portfolio companies, ensuring their healthy development. By June 2023, Ping An's green investments in insurance assets reached an impressive RMB140.929 billion. The current entry-level is looking promising being close to the all-time lows with much higher upside potential than the downward one.
OTC:PNGAYLong
by Elite_Forex
QQQ TRENDS AND PRICE TARGETS, HOW MANY Q's SHOULD ONE HAVE?Technicals RSI is overextending, however, a little cool down would reset the indicators and trigger buy signals across the board. Bears should be looking for an entry, but not entering yet. Plan out a trade. Bulls should be locking in profits and looking to buy the dip. There are two super short term trends that are taking the price up. They are both rejection trends, which are trending in the bullish direction, in other words, price is going up following those trends. There is a huge rejection trend labeled. There is a mega support trend labeled. There is a strong support trend labeled, which should likely trigger a buy signal should it fall to that support or possibly dip under for a brief period of time. Above 480 starts to increase risk. it can go higher to 500, and then possibly even to 600. 500 is way more likely than 600 on this run. short term, again, could use a cool down to like 393. I would suggest to wait for this cool down to enter expecting bullish movement. With price falling to multiple strong support lines, it is a favorable trade. Price can keep going up. Don't expect it to go down. But understand, if it does, you'll be prepared for that movement, and have a trade with a high potential of profit. If you miss out on a run because you were caution, simply wait for a rejection point and jump in short. Ride the wave down, then enter your long position. In other words, don't chase the movement, let the movement come to you, let it move past you, then ride the movement in your desired direction. Linking my other QQQ posts and SPY posts I usually don't TA these because I tend to trade the 3x leveraged (FNGU FNGD is one of my favorites), and I tend to get predictions wrong on these two. Will link some old ones talking about spy to 480 in the election year. MY MISTAKE was I thought the election year was 2023, so it was way off.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by nicktussing77
Dr. Copper Sets Sights on Higher LevelsDr. Copper has recently demonstrated signs of strength, largely attributed to China's stimulus measures. This price surge is occurring within a pattern of consistently higher lows since the lows of 2023. It's important to highlight that this upward momentum previously broke through the downtrend line stemming from the highs of 2023. Following its breakthrough of the $3.82 resistance level yesterday, attention is now focused on the potential for a sustained positive price trend. If the industrial metal maintains a price above $3.82 per pound, it could set its sights on the psychologically significant level of $4 and the resistance level established in August. These levels appear to be potential objectives worth considering in the near future.
PEPPERSTONE:COPPERLong
by Pepperstone
Tesla Faces Headwinds: EV Fleet Sale and Intense Price WarTesla experienced a notable setback, with its stock falling as much as 4.2% during Friday's trading session. This decline marks the 11th drop in 12 sessions. The dip follows Hertz Global Holdings Inc.'s announcement of plans to sell off a third of its U.S. electric-vehicle fleet, contributing to the downward pressure on Tesla's shares. Adding to the challenges, Tesla has been navigating a complex landscape in China. Since late 2022, the company has engaged in a series of price cuts, triggering responses from other manufacturers and putting pressure on profit margins across the industry. Domestic players like Xpeng Inc. and BYD Co., as well as global giants like Volkswagen AG, have joined the price-cutting competition to defend their market share Technically we have a good opportunity to position, but as I always advise in my posts don't take full size position before the move is already happening. 0.5 Risk now with another addition of 0.5 to the full risk which as a Risk Management should not be more than 1-2% of the total portfolio. BOOST THE IDEA AND COMMENT YOUR OPINION . . .
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Elite_Forex
HSI: Already finished? 👀The HSI has risen sharply since Monday. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the index is still working on a magenta-colored downward structure and is therefore not yet finished with its correction. Only after this five-part wave, and thus the turquoise-colored wave 3, has come to an end should things pick up a good bit - even if there is still further downside on a Long-term level. However, there is also a 33% probable alternative, which envisages a sustained rise and considers the past low to be the low of the green wave alt.(2). This scenario comes into effect if the resistance at 18 846 points is exceeded.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by MarketIntel
DXY v's Brazil Russia India China B.R.I.C. CurrenciesNote how the two large pattern #HVF's kept you dollar long as the main directional trade from 2011 to 2022 But things may be turning around and this trade may, potentially be reversing. Often when commentators have given up on the idea of a multi polar world, end of dollar dominance , as price keep going the opposite direction. Is when the trade actually starts to kick into gear. These are major resource nations , with 40% of global pop. 30% of the land and well over a 1/4 of global GDP Would make sense to see this basket of currencies outperform our beloved Greenback.
TVC:DXYShort
by BallaJi
Alibaba - Buy The DipHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Alibaba. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: Starting in 2016 Alibaba created a pretty obvious higher timeframe bullish reversal which was followed by a crazy bullrun on Alibaba stock. In 2021 Alibaba broke below a major bullish trendline and dropped more than -70%. If we see another bullish reversal at the $65 level and a break above the trendline mentioned in the analysis, I am looking for bullish trading setups. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
NYSE:BABA
by basictradingtv
1
China’s Auto Exports Surge 58% to Record High in 2023 The development follows another milestone for Chinese auto exports after they hit more than 3 million vehicles in 2022 and over 2 million in 2021, the report said. The latest record was driven by a surge in exports of new energy vehicles, which climbed 77.6% in 2023 to more than 1.2 million units, according to the report. Overall auto sales in China climbed 12% year over year to 30.1 million units, while output rose 11.6% to 30.2 million units, Xinhua added. Nio: - Trading at 35% below our estimate of its fair value - Revenue is forecast to grow 22.58% per year
NYSE:NIOLong
by Maximus20000
Ride the Japanese Wave, Don't Grab That China Falling KnifeIt was nearly three years ago when the China stock market notched a short-term peak. Recall how the world's second-largest economy was initially seen as a growth engine coming out of the worst of the pandemic. An authoritative regime in China, led by President Xi Jinping, crippled the economy's expansion trajectory through harsh ongoing lockdowns and by clamping down on many industries, one after another. Then in early 2023, hope sprang eternal that China would re-open amid a burst of consumer spending, a la what was seen during the 'revenge travel' period in the United States back in 2021 and 2022. That did not come to fruition, and the Hang Seng Index is now down by more than 50% in the last three years. With all that turmoil going on in China, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index has continued to soar. Up more than 20% since February of 2021, the once sleepy Tokyo stock market features among the best momentum readings of all countries. Based on these trends, sticking with the 'long Nikkei, short China' trade should keep working, in my view. Another way to play it is by being long developed market stocks and avoiding emerging market funds (which still have a roughly 20% allocation to China). Finally, while China trades at a single-digit P/E ratio today, Japan is by no means expensive. Goldman Sachs notes that the country's current 12-month forward earnings multiple is just 14.9, about average compared to its 20-year history (Asia-Pac ex-Japan is 12.3x, for perspective). Interestingly, Japan is back up to 6% of the global stock market allocation while China has sunk to just 3%. Perhaps it is indeed the land of the rising sun while China is a classic "sub"-merging market. A solid ETF to play Japan continues to be the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) which hedges exposure to the Japanese Yen. The ETF has a solid track record of outperforming other Japanese country funds.
TVC:HSILong
by mikezaccardi
1
$RUGRES 'August/2023 Accumulation'ECONOMICS:RUGRES The latest data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) International Financial Statistics (IFS) report shows that Russia’s central bank increased its gold reserves in August, restoring reserves back to previous levels from earlier this year.⁠ ⁠ “IMF IFS data shows gold reserves at the Central Bank of Russia rose by 3 tonnes in August,” according to Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst at the World Gold Council. ⁠ ⁠ Analysts reacted positively to the data, but some raised questions regarding Russia's gold production and where the precious metal is going.⁠
ECONOMICS:RUGRES
by Mr_J__fx
China Property Stimulus to Boost Aus200 IndexThe recent announcement of a stimulus package by the Chinese government to boost the property sector is expected to have a positive impact on the Australian stock market, particularly the Aus200 index. The stimulus package includes measures such as lower down payments for home purchases and tax breaks for developers. These measures are expected to increase demand for property in China, which will in turn benefit Australian companies that export goods and services to the Chinese market. In addition, the stimulus package is also expected to boost the Chinese economy, which is Australia's largest trading partner. A stronger Chinese economy will mean more demand for Australian goods and services, which will support corporate profits and earnings growth. As a result, the Aus200 index is expected to rise in the coming months. Of course, there are also some risks associated with the China property stimulus. If the stimulus is too successful, it could lead to an overheating of the Chinese economy and a resurgence of inflation. This would be negative for Australian companies that export to China, as it would make their goods and services less competitive. However, at this stage, it appears that the risks are outweighed by the potential rewards. Overall, the China property stimulus is a positive development for the Australian stock market. The stimulus is expected to boost demand for Australian goods and services, support corporate profits and earnings growth, and lift the Aus200 index.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by SabahEquityResearch
1