CHINA50 updated forecastOn 4hr chart divergence is forming. I still think it's an opportunity to buy.
RSI on daily chart is 27 - very low.
We might be here for a while because of low volatility during Christmas holiday.
China50
CHINA50 interesting LONG set upI don't usually trade CHINA50, when it comes to China I prefer HK50, but this is an interesting set up/amazing buying opportunity:
- RSI is very low - 29 on daily chart, RSI was 24 few days ago.
- 11000-11100 is a strong support level. Even in March 2020 the index found support at 11500
- I'm aware of economic situation, but I still believe that recession will hit US and European market really bad in 2024/2025, but this will be opportunity for China to grow in strength
- bearish move might be not over yet but once the trend reverses, I believe it can easily start movement towards 15000-16000 (in next 12 months or so)
*This is not a trading advice. Trading is risky. Always do your own analysis before entering the market.*
Shanghai Composite SHCOMP ~ Bearish H&S Formation (Dec 2023)SSE:000001 chart mapping/analysis.
Bearish H&S formation on weekly chart.
Price action already broken below multi-decade trend-line.
Pattern follows through = -29% measured move down to 78.6% Fib / retrace to 2005 breakout / gap fill (weekly) confluence zone (green box).
China 50 opportunity to buyRSI very low
Market record low since March 2020
Fantastic opportunity to buy, TP 11700-11750 max - anything above this in my opinion is risky
This is not a trading advice. Always do your own analysis before entering the market.
China50 forming a bottom?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12555 (stop at 12435)
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Previous resistance at 12530 now becomes support.
12531 has been pivotal.
Support is located at 12530 and should stem dips to this area.
Buying posted in Asia.
Our profit targets will be 12855 and 12935
Resistance: 12700 / 12850 / 13000
Support: 12600 / 12530 / 12450
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
SHCOMP ~ Snapshot TA / Bearish H&S Development (TBC) / WeeklyChina's Economy is dangerously on the ropes...things have gotten so bad, CCP had to make an announcement on a Sunday night (AEST/UC+10) that they're going to intervene in their domestic market with a raft of "measures" in hopes of boosting market confidence:
- Halve stamp duty on stock trading
- Tighten pace of IPO listings
- Cut margin financing requirements
- Restrict listed companies' refinancing
- Restrict share reductions by major shareholders
My gut instinct tells me this will be a financial disaster...luckily we've got charts to tell us what's really going on.
Taking a (Snapshot TA) look, SSE:000001 appears to be developing a Bearish H&S. Extrapolating Head-to-Neckline indicates price could be heading towards a pretty interesting Confluence Zone :
- Gap fill (weekly)
- Retrace to previous 2014 break-out (aka Return to Scene of Crime)
- Key demand/support zone
- Multi-decade trend line
Note: While chart patterns (ie H&S) are great at spotting trends, etc. it's important to focus on associated demand/supply zones & how price interacts with key levels to determine when & where to scale in/out of positions.
All (technical) signs point to SHCOMP in process of capitulating...problem with Govt interventions is it becomes a momentum play in either direction & technicals take a back seat.
We'll just have to take note of critical levels, set alerts & wait for the dust to settle..
Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :)
CFD/INDEX: PEPPERSTONE:CN50 PEPPERSTONE:HK50
US: NASDAQ:AIA AMEX:FXI AMEX:EEM AMEX:CQQQ AMEX:KWEB
ASX: ASX:IAA ASX:IZZ ASX:IEM ASX:CNEW ASX:ASIA
China Yuan Demise, China Demise, Ray Dalio CNY Reserve Currency?
I remember a few months ago there was talk about the Chinese Yuan being the new reserve dollar? Ray Dalio?
The China economy looks so far gone its not even a joke anymore
Government forcing people to not sell assets including banks / institutions
China stimulus debasing the currency parabolically
China stock index failing to grow at all
China no longer reporting jobless claims / unemployment figures (Source at the bottom)
China DEBT to GDP ratio is also going parabolic chances are it will pass even the USA.
Conclusion China and the Yuan is on its way out and the China age is looking more over than ever. What's the next reserve currency? Not the Yuan that's for damn sure.
What's left? Russia with BRICS & Bitcoin is still there just hanging around.
www.reuters.com
China A50 holds its ground despite weak sentimentAU wages came in weak, The RBA hinted that they think they're done tightening in the minutes, The PBOC cut rates (again) and a slew of data from China once again misses the mark. And all in a 30-minute period! I think we’re fast approaching a phase where bets will be on for another round of stimulus. The China A50 is holding its ground above 12,600 and AUD/USD has managed to hold above yesterday’s YTD low despite the weak data. There’s a floor under these prices, and any rumours of stimulus could potentially light the bullish match for these markets to bounce.
Economic data from China continues to disappoint, with retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment data all missing the mark today. This follows on from disappointing trade figures for Q3 with imports and exports contracting at a much faster pace than feared, and loan demand falling to its lowest level since 2009.
Yet somehow, the China A50 is still holding above the 12,400 base it formed in Q2 (despite negative headlines) before falling on news of stimulus. Are we about to witness a similar scenario? Perhaps.
The PBOC announced that they have cut rates for a second month in three, a move not expected by the majority of economists. But it does suggest there is some panic, and with that comes hopes of more stimulus. If a market can’t go lower on bad news, it may not take much ‘good’ news to help it rally.
A bullish hammer formed on the daily chart on Monday and prices are holding above its low despite the negative sentiment. We therefore see the potential for a rally to at least 13k, either on hopes of stimulus (or confirmation of it).
LI Auto Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold LI when they reduced the delivery outlook:
Or on this Earnings Release:
Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LI Auto prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-5-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.60.
I think there is still some upside momentum left, followed by a big selloff by the end of the year.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
China A50 holds 12400 with conviction. Bullish breakout pending?The China A50 trades within a bearish channel on the daily chart, although we strongly suspect it wants to break out of it to the upside.
If you look at the steady stream of weak data coming out of China over the past few months, why is the China A50 not breaking to new lows? In fact, each time the market has pulled back to the 12,400 area since early June buyers have stepped in. And they returned in force yesterday to produce a strong bullish engulfing candle at support.
Bulls could either wait for a break of the 12,857 high to confirm breakout. But if confident that some sort of ‘plunge protection team’ is defending the 12,400 level, any pullback towards it may prove to be a gift for bulls who are anticipating a countertrend breakout.
CN50 approaching swing lows.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12425 (stop at 12345)
Bespoke support is located at 12420.
12400 continues to hold back the bears.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
The medium term bias is neutral.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Our profit targets will be 12625 and 12665
Resistance: 12570 / 12630 / 12670
Support: 12500 / 12480 / 12420
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
China50 to stall at swing high.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 12720 (stop at 12805)
Buying pressure from 12375 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Previous resistance located at 12733.
Our profit targets will be 12520 and 12360
Resistance: 12790 / 13180 / 13660
Support: 12400 / 11845 / 11140
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CN50 being a good long at neckline support?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12565 (stop at 12465)
Posted a Double Bottom formation.
Neckline support is 12565.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A lower correction is expected.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 12565, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 12815 and 12865
Resistance: 12790 / 13180 / 13660
Support: 12400 / 11845 / 11140
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Hold it or visit the lowsOnce again pretty important level on the Chinese market. If the price can hold this level we could expect a rally to the top of the triangle, otherwise if it loses it, we will probably visit the lows. NFA
Has CN50 turned positive?CHN50 - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 12420 level.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
We look to Buy at 12420 (stop at 12310)
Our profit targets will be 12730 and 13180
Resistance: 12790 / 13180 / 13660
Support: 12400 / 11845 / 11140
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Reopening trade is dead in the water.The Hang Seng broke below 19k. Copper is heading lower. Iron Ore futures in Shanghai and Singapore have dropped. This is not good for China. Short it
China50 continues to be a short.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 12650 (stop at 12730)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A higher correction is expected.
The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 12750 level.
Our profit targets will be 12450 and 12410
Resistance: 12790 / 13180 / 13660
Support: 12400 / 11845 / 11140
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Amazon withdrew from the Chinese marketAmazon announced that its withdrawal from the Chinese market was attributed to fierce competition from domestic rivals such as Alibaba and JD.com, regulatory challenges and changing consumer habits. In addition, Amazon faced difficulties gaining market share in China, where local players with a deep understanding of the market and strong logistics capabilities dominate e-commerce, despite its withdrawal from the domestic marketplace. As a result, Amazon announced in June last year that it would end the operation of the Kindle e-bookstore in China on June 30 this year. After that, users cannot purchase new e-books. At that time, the incident attracted market attention, and China's Ministry of Commerce also responded to this, saying that this is a normal phenomenon in a market economy. The outage in the Chinese market will not affect its operations in other regions, and other users can still obtain the required applications through the Amazon App Store.
Relevant news may affect short-term stock price performance, but the long-term trend has little impact. The reason is that Amazon has withdrawn from the Chinese market, which has a relatively small impact on business operations and income. From another perspective, after Amazon starts from the Chinese market, it will concentrate its resources on other Asian regions and emerging market countries, which will have more room for future enterprise development, cost control and marketing. According to the stock price performance of Amazon on the Nasdaq market in the United States on May 23, the impact was less than 0.1%. Assuming that the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations do not have much effect on the market, it is estimated that Amazon's stock price may find support in the red range in this chart or develop upward in the blue price range.
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BABA here:
and bought it here:
Now Analyzing the options chain of BABA Alibaba prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-6-16,
for a premium of approximately $4.45
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
CHINA50 to stem dip?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12845 (stop at 12755)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Previous support located at 12830.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 12995 and 13045
Resistance: 13180 / 13660 / 14440
Support: 12790 / 12400 / 11845
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Looking for CN50 rallies.CHN50 - 24h expiry
Buying pressure from 12916 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 13355 level.
We look to Sell at 13355 (stop at 13455)
Our profit targets will be 13105 and 13055
Resistance: 13660 / 14440 / 15080
Support: 12790 / 12400 / 11845
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
CN50 to find support at previous swing low?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13005 (stop at 12925)
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Our short term bias remains positive.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 13000, resulting In improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 13205 and 13255
Resistance: 13660 / 14440 / 15080
Support: 12785 / 12400 / 11845
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
CN50 to find support at previous resistance?CHN50 - 24h expiry
Selling posted in Asia.
The current move lower is expected to continue.
Short term bias has turned positive.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 13200 level.
We look to Buy at 13205 (stop at 13125)
Our profit targets will be 13405 and 13445
Resistance: 13660 / 14440 / 15080
Support: 13180 / 12790 / 12400
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
