Alibaba Group | BABA | Long at $80.00Alibaba Group NYSE:BABA has the potential for massive growth. From a technical analysis perspective (and using my selected simply moving averages (SMAs)), the price of NYSE:BABA is reconnecting with its primary SMA. It could ride this area for a while as it consolidates further, but this often means a future reversal of the downward trend. Thus, at $80.00, NYSE:BABA is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $89.00
Target #2 = $94.00
Target #3 = $107.00
Target #4 = $116.00
Target #5 = $305.00 (very long-term view...)
Chinastockmarket
A Closer Look at the Catastrophic 99% Stock Crash in 15 Minutes In a heart-stopping financial spectacle, China Tianrui Group Cement Co., ( GETTEX:T18 ) a once-prominent Chinese cement producer, experienced a dizzying descent on the trading floor, with its market value plummeting by a staggering 99% within a mere 15 minutes. The sudden free fall, akin to a financial earthquake, left investors reeling and analysts scrambling for explanations.
The Dramatic Dive:
The alarming nosedive commenced during the final moments of the trading session, as if scripted for a suspense thriller. In a frantic frenzy, shares of Tianrui tumbled to an astonishing HK$0.05, stripping away nearly the entirety of its market capitalization, which dwindled to a mere HK$141 million ($18 million).
Roots of the Disaster:
Unraveling the enigma behind this catastrophic collapse unveils a tangled web of financial intricacies and systemic vulnerabilities. Tianrui's woes are emblematic of the perils lurking within certain segments of China's corporate landscape, particularly among lesser-known entities burdened by opaque ownership structures and precarious financing strategies.
High Stakes and Hidden Risks:
Central to Tianrui's unraveling is its reliance on a concentrated ownership model, with its controlling shareholder, Li Liufa, and his spouse commanding a substantial 70% stake in the company. Such lopsided ownership, compounded by the practice of pledging shares as collateral for loans, exposed Tianrui to the treacherous waters of margin calls and investor panic.
Navigating Turbulent Waters:
Against the backdrop of China's escalating property crisis, Tianrui found itself caught in a perfect storm of adverse market conditions. The company's staggering transition from profitability to a net loss of 634 million yuan ($87.7 million) underscores the harsh realities of weakened demand, cutthroat competition, and soaring raw material costs plaguing the cement industry.
Lessons Learned and Future Outlook:
The harrowing saga of Tianrui serves as a poignant reminder of the inherent risks lurking within the shadowy corridors of China's corporate landscape. As investors grapple with the aftermath of this seismic event, regulators and market participants alike are compelled to scrutinize corporate governance practices and fortify safeguards against future financial meltdowns.
Technical Outlook
China's Tianrui Group Cement Co., ( GETTEX:T18 ) stock lies far below the obersold territory with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 0.19 indicating strong selling pressure from the bears. The stock is trading far below the 200, 100 and 50-Day Moving Averages (MA) respectively.
CHINA A50: Make or break time on the 1W MA50.The China A50 index (CN50) is giving us excellent return on our bullish position since our last post (December 21 2023, see chart below), even though it hasn't reached the 13000 Target:
It is time to take profits on this amazing rally as the index has hit and got rejected twice already on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a sign of weak momentum and as long as it fails to close a 1W candle above the 1W MA50, we are bearish towards the 0.382 Fibonacci at 11700. If it does manage to close above it though, we will take the loss and buy instead, targeting the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at 12700.
Note that the 1W MA100 has been intact as a Resistance since the week of December 28 2021, so if broken the index will enter a new long-term Bull Cycle. Notice also the Lower Highs on the RSI. This week we may have a break-out, the first sign of an upcoming long-term Bull Cycle.
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CHINA A50: Bullish signal approaching.The China A50 index reached today the LH trendline of the August 1st top and turned neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.831, MACD = -120.000, ADX = 25.828). The 1D MACD Bullish Cross that was just formed on such a low level, makes the third time this year but we need further confirmation to buy for an extension as the March 23rd Bullish Cross failed to push the index past the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
Consequently, if the price closes a 1D candle over the 0.382 Fibonacci, which at the same time will be a 1D MA50 breakout, we will go long and target the 0.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 12,800), which will be a technical LH of the 10 month Channel Down.
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