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Alibaba - Trump Won't Beat This Stock!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) is bullish despite Trump's presidency: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Two months ago, Alibaba pumped 30% within a couple of days, perfectly following the resistance trendline breakout. So far we saw a rejection of the upper resistance level and it is quite likely that Alibaba will retest the breakout area. However, the underlying price action is still bullish. Levels to watch: $80, $115 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NYSE:BABALong
by basictradingtv
8
Navigating the Gold Market: Tips for Investors Gold, often hailed as a safe-haven asset, is increasingly finding itself at the mercy of two powerful forces: China and the U.S. dollar. As these two economic giants influence global markets, their actions have a direct impact on the price of gold. China's Growing Appetite for Gold China's insatiable demand for gold has been a significant driver of the yellow metal's price. The country's burgeoning middle class, coupled with its cultural affinity for gold, has fueled a surge in gold consumption. This demand is not limited to jewelry; it extends to investment purposes as well. China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has also been a major buyer of gold. By diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, the PBOC aims to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions. As China continues to accumulate gold, it exerts significant influence over the global gold market. The Dominance of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar, as the world's primary reserve currency, holds immense sway over the global economy. Its value relative to other currencies, often referred to as the "dollar index," has a significant impact on the price of gold. When the dollar strengthens, it typically leads to a decline in the price of gold. This is because gold is priced in U.S. dollars. As the dollar appreciates, it becomes more expensive for foreign investors to purchase gold, which can dampen demand and put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, when the dollar weakens, gold often appreciates. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for foreign buyers, stimulating demand and driving up prices. The Interplay Between China and the U.S. Dollar The interplay between China's growing demand for gold and the strength of the U.S. dollar creates a complex dynamic that can impact the price of gold. • Competing Forces: China's demand for gold can support prices, while a strong U.S. dollar can exert downward pressure. • Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China can exacerbate market volatility and impact the price of gold. • Global Economic Conditions: Global economic conditions, such as inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, can also influence the demand for gold. The Future of Gold The future of gold remains uncertain, but China and the U.S. dollar will continue to play a significant role in shaping its price. As China's economy grows and its influence on the global stage increases, its demand for gold is likely to remain strong. However, the strength of the U.S. dollar will also be a key factor. If the dollar strengthens significantly, it could put downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, a weakening dollar could support gold prices. In conclusion, gold's future is intertwined with the economic and geopolitical landscape. While it remains a valuable asset, investors should carefully consider the impact of China and the U.S. dollar on its price. Diversification and a long-term investment horizon may be prudent strategies for those seeking exposure to gold. Additional Factors Affecting Gold Prices • Inflation: Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. As inflation rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, making gold an attractive investment. • Interest Rates: Higher interest rates can reduce the appeal of gold, as investors may prefer to invest in interest-bearing assets. • Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment and market psychology can significantly impact gold prices, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. • Supply and Demand Dynamics: Global gold production and demand can influence prices. Changes in mining production or shifts in consumer demand can affect supply and demand dynamics. By understanding the interplay of these factors, investors can make more informed decisions about investing in gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by bryandowningqln
CHINA 50 Index Market Money Heist Plan on Bearish Side.Ola! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑💰 This is our master plan to Heist CHINA 50 Index Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich 💰. Entry 👇 📉: Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe, Recent / Nearest High Point. Stop Loss 🛑: Recent Swing High using 2h timeframe Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Short side, If you've got a money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. 💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
SKILLING:CHINA50Short
by Thief_Trader
CHINA 50 Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.Hello! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist CHINA 50 Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 1h timeframe Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
FPMARKETS:CHINA50Long
by Thief_Trader
Xiamen Changelight Soars 108% in Just 16 Days!Xiamen Changelight Analysis: Xiamen Changelight has seen a phenomenal rally, achieving a stunning 108% gain over the past 16 days. The recent bullish momentum has allowed the stock to achieve all target levels, with each level surpassed in quick succession. Trade Setup: Entry Point: $8.11 Stop Loss: $7.86 Target Levels: TP 1: $8.41 TP 2: $8.90 TP 3: $9.38 TP 4: $9.69 Technical Indicators: The stock has trended strongly above the Risological dotted trend line, showing a clear uptrend and sustained buying pressure. The price action’s alignment with this trend suggests confidence among buyers and the potential for continuation if volume remains supportive. Market Sentiment: The sharp rise in share price reflects strong interest in Xiamen Changelight, potentially driven by fundamental catalysts or broader market trends in its industry. With robust volume supporting the upward movement, the momentum appears sustainable, although some consolidation might occur after such a large gain. Outlook: With all targets reached, traders should monitor for any pullback or consolidation phase as new support levels are established. The strong trend could attract further interest, especially if broader sentiment remains positive. Keep an eye on volume and price stability to assess if another leg up is likely in the coming sessions.
SZSE:300102Long
by ProfitsNinja
CHINA 50 Index Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist CHINA 50 Index based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 1h timeframe Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
FPMARKETS:CHINA50Long
by Thief_Trader
Why Chinese Stocks may be risky for the time beingRecent moves by the Chinese Government - termed "Three Arrows", facilitated a decrease of interest rates among various other changes of policy made for loans, borrowing and payment etc. This cumulated action signalled to investor's that China was reopening its economy, thus leading to a huge surge in investment in Chinese Blue Chip stocks, and the entire stock market in the region, including the Hong Kong Market. However, as stocks surge in price with increasing volume, it must be noted that they have been over-bought - 20-30% growth on average before the policies are even put in place. For instance, stocks like the HK exchange itself HK:0388 experienced a doubling in price. This, along with the fact that ETFs of the Chinese markets in Singapore and Taiwan both received much more purchasing power than even the Chinese markets themselves, highlight a significant irrationality in the markets right now. Considering the correction in trends recently, it would not be advisable to purchase stocks in the Chinese markets right now.
HKEX:1398
by AlphaTigerInvestments
Who Gets Rich in China's Market Rally?On September 24th, China announced an unprecedented fiscal stimulus, aiming to rescue its ailing economy. As soon as the news got out, China’s stock market staged a huge rally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved from below 2,800 on September 24th to close at 3,336.5 on September 30th, up 19% in a week. One-month return for the SSE and notable Chinese stocks are listed here: • SSE: +17.5% • Yonghui Supermarkets: +59.9% • JD: +51.3% • BABA: +32.5% • BIDU: +25.5% China's stock market is closed on October 1-7 to observe the National Day holiday. Social media is floating a lot of fairytales about who made a big fortune in the last week of September. Here are two of the stories: The first one is about MINISO, a boutique Chinese department store chain with over 5,000 stores worldwide. It is listed on the NYSE under the stock symbol $MNSO. On September 23rd, MINISO announced that it would acquire 2.67 billion shares of troubled supermarket chain Yonghui Supermarkets (601933.SH), at RMB 2.25 per share. The next day, China announced the stimulus package, and all stock prices shot up. On September 30th, Yonghui closed at RMB 3.63, up 1.38 yuan or 61.3% from a week ago. With the acquisition of 2.67 billion shares, MINISO stands to make a profit of RMB 3.68 billion, equivalent to US$200 million (at USD/RMB exchange rate of 7.09). MINISO could sit on the nice profit for three months and do nothing. It does not have to remit payment for the acquisition until Q1 2025. Is this just good luck or what? The second story is about Michael Burry of Scion Capital, a Wall Street outcast made famous by Michael Lewis’ bestseller, the Big Short, and the hit movie with the same title, with Christian Bale portraying Burry. Recent SEC filing shows that as of the end of Q2 2024, Scion’s largest stock holding is BABA, accounting for 22% of its fund. JD and BIDU are its fourth and fifth holding, respectively. Each is for about a 12.5% share. For an unknown reason, the Big Short turned into a Big Long with nearly half of its investment concentrating on Chinese stocks. With a timing precision, Burry scooped them up cheap just before they popped. Is this superb stock picking skill, or just luck? Would the China rally continue when the market resumes trading on Tuesday? Goldman Sachs just released a research note, saying: Unless China does QE now, the current market rally will crash and burn, and the economy will be a crater. If China does do QE, oil will soar, and gold and bitcoin will be orders of magnitude higher. While this is presented as two alternative paths, there is only one way to go, in all practical purpose. After going all out last month with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, the Chinese government could not afford to see the stock market and the housing market to tank again. It really needs to finish the job by injecting financial stimulus into the economy. Now that the market sensation has already turned positive, government spending would trigger consumer spending as well as investment from the private sector. Such a multiplier effect could lift the Chinese economy higher. Happy Trading!
SSE:000001Long
by JimHuangChicago
China Stocks: What to Expect When Markets Reopen Stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong took off last week and continued their climb on Monday, posting their best single-day rally in 16 years. This surge came after several announcements from Beijing aimed at boosting the country’s economy. But now, The Shanghai Stock Exchange will be closed from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for China’s National Day celebrations, and Hong Kong’s market will also shut on Oct. 1. However, U.S.-listed China ETFs will still be trading, so when the Chinese exchanges reopen on Oct. 7, we could see big moves as global investors get ahead of the Chinese market. China’s stock market is known for its wild swings, mainly because retail investors make up about two-thirds of the trading. That means we might see some significant volatility once the markets open back up.
H
by BlackBull_Markets
HK50 gave back all of its gains over the past month BYD and Li Auto dropped by 5.57% and 7.29%, respectively, exerting a decisive impact on the decline of HK50. Despite BYD's reporting of favorable 2Q earnings with a 26% increase in sales, the results fell below expectations. Meanwhile, Li Auto's 2Q performance was down 45% YoY, while sales increased by 10%. However, the 5.6% decline in electric vehicle deliveries in Aug compared to the previous month raised concerns about the Chinese EV market. With growing export tensions, the outlook for Chinese EV manufacturers will likely worsen in 2024, further amplifying the negative sentiment toward the index. HK50 gave up all the two-week gains and closed at around 17150. The index still holds above the descending channel's upper bound but slid below both EMAs, sending apparent bearish signals. If HK50 fails to hold above both EMAs and breaks the 16700 support, the index may reenter the descending channel and fall further to the 15850 support. Conversely, if HK50 climbs above both EMAs and extends its uptrend to the short-term high at 18200, the index could gain upward momentum to the resistance at 18600.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50
by inkicho_exness
Shanghai Composite. 'Arctic Fox' leaps on Shanghai street cornerReal estate has made China rich in recent years and decades. Now it looks more like radioactive kryptonite from the DC Comics universe - the birthplace of Superman. Three months earlier, China's house prices fell 0.4% in a month, according to official statistics released in November 2023, the steepest drop since February 2015, according to Bloomberg data . It was one sign that a key engine of the world's second-largest economy is still faltering despite Beijing's multiple stimulus packages. At the same time, prices for secondary housing fell by 0.6% in October, which is the highest figure in nine years. According to the Cato Institute data , private property accounts for 1/4 of China's total gross domestic product and nearly 70% of all household wealth. This means that falling house prices have become a serious burden on the economy. The situation is exacerbated by a seemingly endless debt crisis that has left the country's two largest property developers on the brink of collapse, with both Evergrande and Country Garden defaulting on bond repayments in recent years. Evergrande serves as an example of how an industry that contributed to China's economic boom and prosperity for decades has become toxic and has become a point of weakness and decline. The company was founded in 1996 and built huge residential complexes in the city center, helping to accelerate China's shift away from a socialist agrarian economy. The company eventually expanded beyond real estate, opening separate businesses selling bottled water and electric vehicles, and in 2010 it bought a Chinese soccer club that would go on to become the country's most successful team. These days, the former giant is struggling for cash and facing liquidation. China's fragile housing market is back in the spotlight at the start of 2024, following the release of a batch of fresh statistics. China's troubled property market ended last year with the worst decline in new home prices in nearly nine years, despite government efforts to prop up a sector that was once a key driver of the second-largest economy. New home prices in December showed their sharpest fall since February 2015, while property sales measured by area fell 23% in December from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday, January 17, 2024. Of the 70 cities included in the NBS house price data, 62 reported falling prices. Markets immediately responded with a strong decline, exacerbating the accumulated negative returns since the start of 2024. Big China Indices Crash by Mid-January, 2024 At the same time, property developer investment in December fell year-on-year at the fastest pace since at least 2000, according to Reuters calculations based on NBS data. Overall, real estate investment fell 9.6% in 2023, roughly matching the decline in 2022. Several Chinese developers, including China Evergrande Group HKEX:3333 and Country Garden HKEX:2007 defaulted on their offshore debts and entered into restructuring processes. Country Garden, the country's largest private real estate developer, warned this week that it expects the real estate market to remain weak into 2024. The technical main chart is dedicated to the Shanghai Composite Stock Index, which, judging by the current scenario, will experience far from the best year in its history, as a result of the index breaking down its narrowing multi-year range. // Photo: “Arctic fox” leaps on Shanghai street corner . 💡 February, 2024 Notes 👉 Chinese stocks are falling for the 6th month in a row by February 2024 against the backdrop of the weakness of the Chinese economy, while SSE:000001 Shanghai Composite Stock Index fell below its 200-month SMA for the first time in its history. 👉 An extremely rare Bearish Super Combo in the Chinese financial market of 6 consecutive monthly declines is the result of disappointment with economic data and PRC government measures to support the economy. 👉 Industrial activity in China fell for the fourth month in a row in January, official data showed on Wednesday. PMI indexes point to a bleak picture of continued contraction in manufacturing, roughly unchanged activity in the services sector and a slowdown in construction, Nomura analysts said. 👉 Weak economic recovery and limited support measures have affected investor sentiment. The Hang Seng Tech Index of Hong Kong-listed tech giants HSI:HSTECH fell 20% in January, while Hong Kong-listed shares of mainland property developer Hang Seng index fell 19%.
SSE:000001
by Pandorra
CHINA A50 Death Cross to push it lower but buy opportunity lurksThe China A50 index (CN50) completed yesterday a 1D Death Cross following a convincing rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and that should extend the Channel Down to a new Lower Low. Technically it appears to far to be in good symmetry with the Falling Wedge's previous Bearish Leg, that found a temporary bottom after a -14.76% decline and rebounded to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, despite the current weakness, we expect this last push to stop around 11100 - 11000 and then rebound to 12100 (0.618 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:CN50
by TradingShot
Tencent Holdings LtdIs Tencent Stock a Buy Now? Tencent posted its third quarter earnings report on Nov. 16. The Chinese tech giant's revenue fell 2% year over year to 140.1 billion yuan ($19.8 billion), which represented its second consecutive quarter of declining revenue since its IPO in 2004. Its net profit rose 1% to 39.9 billion yuan ($5.6 billion). On an adjusted basis, which excludes its investments and other one-time items, its net profit grew 2% to 32.3 billion yuan ($4.5 billion). Those growth rates seem anemic, but Tencent's stock had already been cut in half over the past two years amid concerns about China's tightening regulations, slowing economic growth, and COVID19 lockdowns. So is it the right time to take the contrarian view and buy Tencent as a turnaround play? Let's review its core businesses and valuations to decide. Tencent generated 31% of its third quarter revenue from its video game business. Domestic games, which include its blockbuster game Honor of Kings, accounted for 73% of that total. The remaining 27% came from overseas hits like League of Legends, Valorant, and PUBG Mobile.Its domestic gaming revenue fell 7% year over year, representing its third consecutive quarter of shrinking revenue, as it grappled with tighter playtime restrictions for minors in China over the past year. Those restrictions also coincided with a temporary suspension on new video game approvals in China, which started last July and ended this April.Its international gaming revenue rose 3% year over year, accelerating from its 1% decline in the second quarter, as new games like Tower of Fantasy and Goddess of Victory: Nikke attracted new players. Unfortunately, its overseas growth still couldn't offset its declining domestic revenue. As a result, Tencent's total VAS (value-added service) revenue which includes its gaming divisions, social media platforms, and streaming media subscriptions -- declined by 3% in the third quarter but still accounted for more than half of its top line. This core business might gradually stabilize as Tencent expands its international gaming business, but it will likely remain under intense pressure as long as the Chinese government continues to scrutinize the gaming industry. 200$ was one of the biggest support and great opportunity to buying the dip. 300-320$ is a big resistance level for tencent and if bulls win that battle then 350$ is next but can we back 250 or even 200$ again? YES
HKEX:700
by moonypto
11
Kraneshares China Internet ETF | KWEB | Long at $26.00The "beginnings" of a change in the downward trend of China's tech stock market may be starting to unfold. The price of Kraneshares China Internet ETF AMEX:KWEB has finally reconnected with my selected simple moving average (SMA) which often means further price consolidation or future price breakout from the overall mean. I'm not saying this will happen immediately and this particular SMA likes to be tested to "fake out" buyers and sellers (sometimes over months or years). Plus, there are price gaps in the low BER:20S on the daily chart that often get filled before a run. But for the early birds out there, like myself, AMEX:KWEB at $26.00 is in a personal buy zone as a starter position. Target #1 = $30.00 Target #2 = $37.00 Target #3 = $49.00 Target #4 = $100.00 (very long-term view...)
AMEX:KWEBLong
by NicksAnalysis
1
Alibaba Group | BABA | Long at $80.00Alibaba Group NYSE:BABA has the potential for massive growth. From a technical analysis perspective (and using my selected simply moving averages (SMAs)), the price of NYSE:BABA is reconnecting with its primary SMA. It could ride this area for a while as it consolidates further, but this often means a future reversal of the downward trend. Thus, at $80.00, NYSE:BABA is in a personal buy zone. Target #1 = $89.00 Target #2 = $94.00 Target #3 = $107.00 Target #4 = $116.00 Target #5 = $305.00 (very long-term view...)
NYSE:BABALong
by NicksAnalysis
CHINA A50 Rebound expected.The China A50 index (CN50) eventually closed below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) last time we looked into it (June 14, see chart below) and hit our 11800 downside Target: The long-term pattern remains bearish in the form of a Falling Wedge, but right now we expect a medium-term counter-trend rebound similar to the one that followed the May 30 2023 Low and reached the 0.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we turn bullish on this index, targeting 12350 (0.236 Fib and top of the Falling Wedge). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:CN50Long
by TradingShot
SunCar Technology Group: Strong Partnerships & Business ModelSummary SunCar has built an innovative cloud service and mobile app that digitalize the automotive aftermarket and eInsurance sectors in China. SunCar’s cloud platform is critical to China’s EV manufacturers as it delivers leading technology, a user-friendly mobile App, and China-wide scope. In FY 2023 SunCar registered almost 30% overall revenue growth and 80% growth in its auto eInsurance business. China's EV manufacturers primarily use Direct-to-Consumer models and rely on SunCar's digital platform and mobile app to deliver over 300 aftermarket services and eInsurance. SunCar recently reported positive Adjusted EBITDA showing a commitment to profitability while still investing in growth. BYD EV retail store Robert Way Introduction and Thesis If you believe that EVs are a flawed solution to a serious problem on Earth, then read on. I have an investment idea in a really solid company that went public in 2023 through a SPAC deal. Its technology helps cure some pain points for EVs. It's called SunCar Technology Group, (NASDAQ:SDA). Their technology links car owners to aftermarket service and insurance providers via a cloud service and mobile app. It profits by solving the problem of China’s underdeveloped aftermarket for EVs and ICE cars in the largest car market in the world. Like SunCar, EV manufacturers are highly digitalized and have adopted direct-to-consumer models. This means they don’t have large dealer networks, so their aftermarket support is dependent on SunCar. Suncar is strategically positioned through its partnerships with almost all Chinese EV OEMs. It operates a business-to-business-to-consumer, B2B2C, model where Suncar sells its services in deals with OEMs and other large enterprises such as the Bank of China. It's not surprising that SunCar’s traction among EV companies has been so strong. The type of services that will comprise the aftermarket for EVs is still being defined, but SunCar’s network of 47,000 connected service providers is a platform that should drive steady demand. Because China is at the leading edge of EV technology, and these vehicles are highly computerized, I believe technology and data on the EV aftermarket and issues specific to Chinese EV makes are good assets to own. China's EV Aftermarket Most of the EVs on Earth are driven in China, and most of the EVs driven in China are made in China. According to the International Energy Agency, "In 2023, just under 60% of new electric car registrations were in the People’s Republic of China." China represents just 17.4% of the global population. While growth is strong in the U.S. and Europe, data from the same source points to China being also the past leader in EV adoption. This is largely due, indirectly, to one factor: intense domestic manufacturer competition. Producers like BYD, Li, Xpeng, Nio, and several smaller names have saturated the market with vehicles and driven down prices for EVs to more affordable levels. Yes, less than $10,000 worth of yuan buys EV caliber of engineering. The specs are inexpensive and comparable with American EV models. Some rough estimates from numbers across the internet have approximately 35% of the Chinese population as drivers. Comparably, by my estimate, roughly 76% of Americans are drivers. This difference suggests a runway for growth in China. I believe the Chinese market stands to grow much more than the American market as economic conditions improve over the long run. Falling prices, due to government investment in manufacturing, should attract first time car buyers to EVs in China. This growth opportunity suggests that connecting drivers with aftermarket services will be essential to keeping these cars on the road and useful to their owners. Demand for service, repair, basic maintenance, and modifications should grow in line with the Chinese EV market. There are few, if any, competitive players in SunCar’s digitalized, aftermarket services sector when compared to the fiercely-competitive manufacturing sector in China. For me, SunCar is a company that has an attractive combination of both exposure to and protection from the manufacturers. China's Auto eInsurance Market SunCar’s fastest growing business is actually its auto insurance segment. The company developed an innovative technology that allows consumers to get a real-time insurance quote while they are getting another SunCar service such as a tire change. If the consumer goes with the insurance deal, SunCar and the service provider split the commission on the sale. This service opens a new revenue outlet for service providers and incentivizes them to join the platform. This service has proven immensely popular and is likely to become the company’s largest business segment. The synergies between its aftermarket services and insurance segments continue to grow. China’s auto insurance market continues to further privatize and shift towards EV-specific policies, giving SunCar a large and high-growth market opportunity. This opportunity is highly synergistic with SunCar’s business in the EV aftermarket, as EVs have unique insurance needs which SunCar is meeting through its strong partnerships with the Chinese EV manufacturers. Due to the EV manufacturers’ direct-to-consumer model, those SunCar partners rely heavily on SunCar to provide high quality aftermarket services and insurance to their customers. SunCar's cloud platform is connected to all the major auto insurers in China. It offers the best policies within minutes through a proprietary technology that puts insurance sellers into competition with one another and gives the best deal to the consumer. In the era of the smart shopper, the total cost of owning a vehicle is the main focus, so consumers are increasingly sensitive to insurance. The benefit SunCar provides to buyers in maintaining affordable yet sufficient insurance is something very useful that consumers are seeking. Insurance premiums for EVs typically run 20% higher than for ICE vehicles. Bringing these insurance premiums down to parity with ICE vehicles requires data on the burgeoning aftermarket, which SunCar is able to provide through its large network of service providers. Financials SunCar is approximately a $680 million company. It is earnings negative but Adjusted EBITDA positive, which means it is still largely in the product development phase in its lifecycle. According to seeking Alpha, unlevered free cash flow is $-32.1 million, with net income of $-17.6 million. SunCar currently has cash on hand of $52.5 million at the last report, but SunCar is raising capital, as recently covered by Jaskiran Singh, SA News Editor, so the cash runway shouldn’t be too tight given the burn rate. The major upside is that the existing products generate cash. SunCar has accounts receivable amounting to $58.9 million and has strengthened its working capital position by $23.9 million TTM. Sales are strong with 30% revenue growth in FY 2023. Major expenses include R&D and overhead. Given that the market cap is just approximately 1.9x revenue, it seems like strong growth combined with scalable costs have only been modestly rewarded by investors, as comparable tech stocks tend to earn higher multiples. I think there is plenty of room for multiple expansion if SunCar’s future financial reports don’t disappoint. Risks I believe that share prices could have a fair amount of extra risk and volatility as foreign relations between China and America play out in an election year. The good news is that SunCar’s auto aftermarket cloud service isn’t specific to EVs and can add value to the auto aftermarket experience in almost any country. Most auto owners feel they are overpaying for insurance and SunCar has a unique, innovative quote service. Many Americans only invest in American businesses because they don’t understand or agree with certain foreign government regimes or simply because the volatility measures of these instruments tend to be higher. This factor affects demand for share prices on an American exchange quite a bit. I do however expect a more educated investor to examine their bias and invest in companies that will become systematically more profitable in the future. There is also foreign currency risk. The yuan may depreciate against the dollar, causing real assets that are marketable in yuan to decrease in dollar value. I think the valuations of companies like SunCar would suffer some volatility consequently if this policy scenario occurred. However, SunCar’s business today is almost exclusively in China so the exchange rate may not be so important at this time. Conclusion SunCar is poised to thrive in the emerging China auto market. The global economy for automobiles is undergoing clear changes as well. China is emerging as a winner in engineering affordable, high performance EVs. The niche that SunCar has is making the motor vehicle service and insurance markets respectively more efficient through its access to big service provider and OEM data. This sort of solution seems at least somewhat portable to other economies, and M&A activity could very well bring a similar solution to the United States. Vehicles need to be serviced. EVs in particular need unique services. It’s likely that there is a better solution to organize EV data, and SunCar seems to be finding it. Understanding patterns in OEM-specific issues and documenting them solves several major pain points in the EV aftermarket. It lowers costs and improves the value of the car ownership experience. Appreciating that there are risks to my thesis, I reiterate my buy call on SDA.
NASDAQ:SDALong
by mackattack98